NADA Commercial Truck Guide Industry Update July 2014

Transcription

NADA Commercial Truck Guide
Industry Update
July 2014

Mid-year sleeper market summary traces recent market shift
Increased volume of late-model iron impacting
pricing

Construction market continues recovery
Volume and pricing both up incrementally

Medium duty segments mixed
Conventionals generally improving, cabovers
still flat
Commercial Truck Guidelines | July 2014
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Commercial Truck Market Trends ............................................................................................... 2
Economic Trends by Forecasting & Industry Analysis Group
...................................................................... 11
ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guide Value Trends ........................................................ 13
At NADA Used Car Guide ............................................................................................................. 14
COMMERCIAL TRUCK MARKET TRENDS
Mid-Year Sleeper Market Summary
2014 began where 2013 left off, with retail and wholesale activity at moderate levels
due to the harsh winter. Then March exploded onto the scene with a massive increase
in volume of sleeper tractors sold at auction, driven largely by 5- and 6-year-old trucks
(2010 and 2009 model years). April was another big month for late-model sleepers, this
time with 3- and 4-year-old trucks responsible for the increase. May’s results confirmed
that a market shift was officially underway, with 3-6-year-old trucks selling at higher
volumes for another month.
Wholesale pricing for 3-6-year-old sleepers has been only moderately impacted by the
increased supply, with only 2011’s and 2012’s notably downward since the beginning of
the year. In the retail channel, 2010’s and 2012’s have taken the biggest hit in price,
while 2011’s have been largely unaffected through May.
With the 2012 model year representing a return to a normal build rate after the
recession, plus a return to shorter trade cycles starting in approximately 2011, it is
logical that the market would absorb an increased number of late-model trucks early
this year. Pricing has trended flat to mildly downward, with depreciation kept in check
by continued high demand for lower-mileage trucks. We expect results to follow this
trend through the end of the year, with depreciation on 2011-2013 models averaging
roughly 1.5% per month in both the wholesale and retail channels by December.
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | nada.com/b2b
© 2014 NADA Used Car Guide
2
[ COMMERCIAL TRUCK MARKET TRENDS continued ]
Sleeper Tractors – Retail
Now that the market has had three full months to
Average Retail Price and Mileage:
All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles
$65,000
average has pulled back slightly from April’s all-time
$60,000
record. The average sleeper tractor retailed in May
$55,000
old. See the “Average Retail Price and Mileage” graph
for detail.
Compared to April, price was $1,199 (or 2.0%) lower,
Price
Mileage
580,000
550,000
520,000
$50,000
490,000
$45,000
460,000
$40,000
$35,000
430,000
$30,000
400,000
mileage was 524 (or 0.1%) higher, and age was 2
Period
months older. Year-over-year, price was $7,228 (or
Source: ATD/NADA
14.0%) higher, mileage was 27,828 (or 5.1%) lower,
Average Retail Price by Model Year
All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles - Adjusted for Mileage
and age was identical.
2007
$100,000
Drilling down to model year, the newest trucks
$80,000
2012’s – have performed flat to mildly downward
$60,000
same is generally true for slightly older trucks.
Demand for lower-mileage trucks will continue to
outweigh supply through the end of the year, limiting
depreciation. Buyers will simply have a mildly better
2010
2011
2012
Price
$70,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
Jan-12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Retail Price by Model Year” graph for detail). The
2009
$90,000
available in notable quantities – 2010’s through
since their high points in February (see the “Average
2008
Period
Source: ATD/NADA
selection of trucks to choose from.
Daycabs – Retail
Class 8 highway tractors not equipped with a sleeper sell in lower volumes and are
typically held longer by their primary owners. Due to the lower price of a new daycab –
as well as higher demand for new sleepers – used daycab pricing generally lags that of
sleepers until around 6 years of age. At that point, the supply/demand relationship – as
well as the substantial difference in accumulated mileage between the two types –
creates a scenario in which daycabs command a premium over sleepers.
3
Mileage
for $58,874, had 506,905 miles, and was 75 months
Price
absorb the influx of newer sleepers, NADA’s universal
Looking at retail pricing in 2014 to date, 2010-2012
model year sleepers brought an average of 11.2%
Average Retail Selling Price by Model Year
Daycabs vs. Sleepers - Adjusted for Mileage
Daycab Price
more than daycabs. That relationship flips for the
2009 model year, with daycabs bringing 5.8% more
$90,000
$80,000
than sleepers of that vintage. For the 2007-2009
more than their sleeper counterparts. See the
$70,000
$60,000
Price
model years, daycabs command an average of 7.9%
Sleeper Price
$100,000
$50,000
$40,000
“Average Retail Selling Price by Model Year” graph for
$30,000
detail.
$10,000
$20,000
$2012
As for mileage, 2010-2012 sleepers show 39.6% more
2011
2010
2009
Model Year
2008
2007
mileage on average than daycabs of the same
vintage. That proportion remains essentially identical for the 2007-2009 model years, at
39.3% for that group. As trucks age, though, mileage per year remains fairly linear for
sleepers, while the curve flattens out for daycabs. For the 2004-2006 model years,
sleepers show an average of 47.8% more mileage than same-vintage daycabs. This
behavior is likely due to decreased usage of older daycabs as well as an increased
likelihood of a higher-mileage daycab to sell wholesale instead of retail.
In terms of volume, 2010-2012 sleepers represented
only 17.6% of Class 8 highway tractor sales reported
Number of Trucks Reported Sold by Model Year (Retail)
Daycabs vs. Sleepers - 2014YTD
Daycabs
to NADA. This proportion increases to 24.5% for the
Sleepers
1,200
2007-2009 model years. As trucks age past 2007, the
1,000
proportion of daycabs to sleepers shifts dramatically,
Again, this behavior is due to a supply/demand
800
Volume
with the split nearly equal between the two types.
600
relationship favoring daycabs in older model years,
400
and increased wholesale activity for high-mileage
200
sleepers. See the “Number of Trucks Reported Sold”
0
2012
2011
2010
graph for detail.
2009
2008
Model Year
2007
2006
2005
2004
Sleeper Tractors – Wholesale
Unlike the retail channel, prices in the wholesale channel overall continued to trend
upward in May. The drastic change in model year mix available to wholesale buyers
4
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Price)
auction or dealer-to-dealer in May brought $44,834,
700,000
$40,000
Compared to April, pricing was $2,699 (or 6.4%)
$35,000
650,000
$30,000
600,000
$25,000
$20,000
550,000
$15,000
500,000
$10,000
higher, mileage was 33,462 (or 6.3%) lower, and age
450,000
$5,000
May
Mar
Jan-14
Sep
Nov
Jul
Mar
May
Nov
Jan-13
Jul
Jan-12
400,000
Sep
$0
was 2 months newer. Year-over-year, pricing was a
Mileage
Price
“Average Wholesale Price and Mileage” graph for
whopping $16,237 (or 56.9%) higher, mileage was a
750,000
$45,000
had 565,773 miles, and was 73 months old. See the
detail.
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Mileage)
$50,000
May
record high. The average sleeper tractor sold at
Average Wholesale Price and Mileage:
All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles
Mar
caused NADA’s universal average to hit another
Period
Source: NADA and AuctionNet
notable 118,455 (or 17.3%) lower, and age was 10
months newer.
Average Wholesale Selling Price by Model Year
All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles - Adjusted for Mileage
Drilling down to model year, 3-5-year-old trucks have
$120,000
seen varying degrees of depreciation since January,
$100,000
with 2011’s hit the hardest. Specifically, 2012’s are off
are down 8.5% and 2010’s are down 4.7%. It is logical
$80,000
3 per. Mov. Avg. (2007)
Price
their January-February average by 2.0% while 2011’s
3 per. Mov. Avg. (2009)
that the increased supply of 2012’s would impact the
$40,000
value of the next-newest model year (2011) most
$20,000
heavily. See the “Average Wholesale Selling Price by
3 per. Mov. Avg. (2008)
$60,000
3 per. Mov. Avg. (2010)
3 per. Mov. Avg. (2011)
3 per. Mov. Avg. (2012)
$0
Model Year” graph for detail.
Period
The volume of trucks sold wholesale with fewer than
600K miles has increased dramatically since March, most notably in the 400-500K mile
range. It is likely that a good portion of these trucks were purchased for retail sale, and
we expect increased representation of these lower-mileage units in our June retail sales
data.
Construction Trucks – Retail and Wholesale
The last time we examined the Class 8 construction segment, we stated that, “… stable
pricing combined with higher volume generally suggests a strengthening market.” That
trend continued through May, with our benchmark 2006-2009 model year trucks
steadily increasing in value from their low point in the fall of 2013. This price movement
5
$120,000
trucks aged a year in that period.
$100,000
Looking at the market as a whole (all model years),
$60,000
$40,000
market. See the related graphs for detail.
3 per. Mov. Avg. (2006)
3 per. Mov. Avg. (2007)
$20,000
As for volume, the number of 2006-2009 trucks sold
3 per. Mov. Avg. (2008)
3 per. Mov. Avg. (2009)
Apr
May
Feb
Mar
Dec
Jan-14
Oct
Nov
Sep
Jul
Aug
Jun
Apr
May
Feb
Mar
Dec
Jan-13
Oct
Nov
Sep
Jul
Aug
Jun
Jan-12
averaging 41 trucks per month through May vs. 33 for
Apr
$0
has increased steadily on a year-over-year basis,
May
except for one. This is further evidence of a stronger
$80,000
Price
pricing is up year-over-year in every mileage category
Feb
early 2013, which is impressive considering that these
Average Retail + Wholesale Selling Price of Construction Trucks
Adjusted for Mileage
Mar
puts this group essentially equal to where it was in
Period
the same period last year. The market overall has also
expanded, with volume of all trucks sold averaging
Average Retail + Wholesale Price of Construction Trucks by Mileage Range
2014YTD vs. Same-Period 2013
109 per month through May vs. 73 for the same
2014YTD
period last year.
90000
80000
As a side note, we use the 2006-2009 model years as
volume is. Volume drops dramatically from the 2009
70000
60000
Price
a reference group because that’s where most of the
50000
40000
to 2010 model years – from 33 to a mere 8 reported
30000
sold in 2014 to date, respectively. We will continue to
20000
monitor newer trucks and make valuation judgments
CY2013
100000
10000
0
0-99K
100-199K
200-299K
where appropriate.
300-399K
400-499K
Mileage Range
500-599K
600-699K
700-799K
Overall, the construction market appears more regionalized than the highway market,
with regions enjoying healthy infrastructure and residential activity obviously
demanding more trucks. Nationwide, that industry continues to trend gradually upward.
See the Economic Trends section for additional detail.
Competitive Comparison – 3-Year-Old Sleepers
Looking at the 2012 model year, the Kenworth T660 has substantially outperformed
other models so far in 2014 – a result that is unique to this model year. There is no
mileage or spec difference that would account for this result, so we consider this a
natural market condition.
6
The Freightliner Cascadia also performs strongly, outperforming the next-closest
competitor by an average of 4.3% since January. It should be noted that the Cascadia is
the top performer for the 2011 model year.
The Peterbilt 386 showed strength in April and May, the only truck other than the
International ProStar to increase rather than decrease in price in those two months. In
May, the 386 and Cascadia were close enough to be considered essentially equal.
The Volvo 630/670 and 730/780 performed unusually closely to each other from March
through May. 730/780’s sold during this period had mileage higher than the average,
which likely explains some of that performance,
despite our mileage adjustment. As for the 630/670,
Average Retail Price - 3-Year-Old Sleeper Tractors
Adjusted for Mileage
that truck returns the highest sales volume of all
$110,000
sleeper tractors in our database, and as such it closely
$100,000
386
$90,000
tracks the average.
Cascadia
The International ProStar continues to underperform.
Almost all 2012 ProStars were built with MaxxForce
Price
$80,000
T660
VNL 630/670
$60,000
power, and all reported sold so far in 2014 were so-
$50,000
equipped.
$40,000
See the “Average Retail Price – 3-Year-Old Sleeper
ProStar
$70,000
VNL 730/780
Average for all Trucks
$30,000
Jan-14
Feb
Tractors” graph for detail.
Mar
Period
Apr
May
Medium Duty – Class 4 and 6 Conventionals
Wholesale pricing for 4-7 year-old Class 4’s swung
back into positive territory in May after a mild
4-7 Year-Old Class 4 Conventionals
pullback in April. A lower-mileage mix of trucks is
$25,000
partly responsible for the increase, but pricing since
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Class 4 Mileage)
100,000
$10,000
60,000
Price
80,000
36.9%) increase over May 2013. Mileage was lower
40,000
$5,000
20,000
$0
0
than typical, at 91,584 – a 24,978 (or 21.4%) drop
Sources: ATD/NADA and AuctionNet
Period
7
Mileage
$15,000
$19,152 in May, which was a $2,934 (or 18.1%)
increase over April, and an impressive $5,167 (or
140,000
120,000
$20,000
late 2013 has trended steadily upward.
Specifically, this group returned an average of
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Class 4 Price)
from April, and a 16,089 (or 14.9%) decrease year-over-year. See the Class 4 graph for
detail.
Volume in 2014 to date for this cohort remains lower than calendar year 2013, at an
average of 40 trucks sold per month vs. 50, respectively. However, this difference is
partly due to one high-volume outlier month in 2013, which skewed the average by
about 5 trucks per month. As such, we do not consider the year-over-year difference in
volume a notable factor.
With pricing up notably year-over-year and on a clearly-positive trajectory since the 4th
quarter of 2013, we view the Class 4 market as moderately strong. The relatively low
price of new Class 4 trucks (compared to heavier segments) tends to keep a lid on used
pricing, but demand on the used side continually strengthens in step with the gradual
improvement in the general economy.
As for Class 6’s, wholesale pricing for 4-7 year-old trucks pulled back in May after a
strong April. Notably higher mileage is the main factor.
$23,050 in May, which was a $3,800 (or 14.2%)
decrease from April, but an incredible $7,793 (or
4-7 Year-Old Class 6 Conventionals
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Class 6 Price)
was on the high side in May, at 170,809 – a 45,003 (or
$25,000
35.8%) increase over April, but a 36,367 (or 17.6%)
$20,000
detail.
Pricing for individual trucks is clearly the strongest it’s
been since before the recession, but the market has
become more selective. Volume of 4-7 year-old trucks
250,000
200,000
150,000
Price
decrease vs. May 2013. See the Class 6 graph for
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Class 6 Mileage)
$15,000
100,000
$10,000
50,000
$5,000
$0
0
Period
sold per month is down substantially from 2013, at an
average of 16 this year vs. 42 last year. Trucks with mileage up to the mid-100K range
are performing strongly, but as mileage increases past that level, strength moderates. As
with the Class 4 segment, improving business confidence increases demand for new
equipment at the expense of older equipment.
8
Mileage
51.1%) increase over May 2013. As stated, mileage
$30,000
Medium Duty – Class 3 and 4 Cabovers
Average wholesale pricing of 4-7 year-old cabovers appears to have increased
substantially in May, but this increase is due entirely to unusually low mileage trucks in
that cohort this month. Viewed on an individual-truck basis, cabover pricing has been
essentially flat since the recession.
Class 3-4 Cabovers
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Series1)
$20,000
$7,089 (or 52.4%) increase year-over-year. As stated,
26.6%) from April, and 39,880 (or 33.7%) from May
140,000
120,000
$15,000
Price
100,000
80,000
$10,000
60,000
40,000
$5,000
20,000
2013. See the Cabover graph for detail.
0
Jan-12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
$0
Volume in this segment remains low, at an average of
Period
only 7 trucks reported sold per month in 2014
compared to 25 in 2013 for our benchmark 4-7 year-old trucks. Low volume combined
with flat pricing indicates no change in demand. Individuals and small businesses appear
to have ample access to the used iron they need.
Sales Volume – Retail and Wholesale
Retail sales per dealership rooftop remained stable for the 3rd month in a row, in line
with our forecast. May’s 6.0 trucks performance is a mild decrease from April, and
somewhat impressive for a month that has
historically seen lower volume. It is possible that we’ll
Average Number of Used Trucks Retailed per Rooftop
8.0
see a drop in volume in one or two of the upcoming
7.0
6.0
seasonal pullback rather than a change in market
5.0
conditions. It is also entirely possible that there will
be little or no seasonal variation thanks to continued
strong demand. Bottom line – upside factors greatly
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Jan-12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
outnumber downside. See the retail volume graph for
Count
summer months, but this would reflect a typical
Period
Source: ATD/NADA
9
Mileage
coming in at 78,517 in May – a decrease of 28,413 (or
180,000
160,000
54.9%) increase over April, and an equally-huge
mileage was the factor behind this movement,
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Series2)
$25,000
$20,621 in May, which was a whopping $7,309 (or
detail.
Total Wholesale Sales Reported to NADA
6,000
As for the wholesale channel, May’s volume pulled
reported sold vs. 3,444, for an 8.6% decline. 2014
4,000
volume to date remains at our expected level of
roughly 5% higher than calendar year 2013, and we
Total Sales
back moderately from April, with 3,149 trucks
5,000
2010 Total:
42,320
2011 Total:
29,282
2012 Total:
34,275
2013 Total:
39,179
3,000
2,000
do not expect any change in this measure through the
detail.
Conclusion
1,000
0
Jan-10
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-11
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-12
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-13
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-14
Mar
May
end of the year. See the wholesale volume graph for
Period
Overall, the market for all Class 8 highway tractors is the most “normal” it’s been since
before the recession, with demand less impacted by external factors such as the
Affordable Care Act, budgetary brinksmanship, and tax uncertainty. Emissions
regulations are a known quantity, at least for another model year. As such, the invisible
hand of supply and demand is dictating pricing more directly than in recent years.
Construction vehicle demand continues to strengthen nationwide, with the degree of
strength varying by region. Adoption of a federal highway bill would support demand,
but the current political climate ensures this process will not be quick or straightforward.
See the Economic Trends section of this document for additional detail on factors
impacting the medium and heavy used truck markets.
10
ECONOMIC TRENDS
By Steven Szakaly, Chief Economist, Forecasting & Industry Analysis Group
Well another month has passed and we are ever grateful that no one pays attention to
revised GDP. We won’t try to sugarcoat it – the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA)
third rewrite of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q1 2014 was bad. GDP was down 2.9%
(yikes!) and this leaves our full-year GDP forecast
looking a tad too rosy. We actually expect the just
completed Q2 2014 to come in at 3.1% but the full
U.S. GDP OUTLOOK THROUGH 2018
5
year looks likely to disappoint. Given Q1’s figure, we
Historical
4
think we will be lucky to hit our sharply downward
3
revised 1.6% growth for full-year GDP. We’re still at
2
ample reason to be positive, especially if you’re in
the car business (which if you’re reading this you
probably are).
So what’s behind our higher than consensus
Gross Domestic Product,
Annual % Change
the high end of consensus, but feel that there is
3.1
3.1
Forecast
2.8
2.9
1
0
2000
-1
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
-2
-3
-4
-5
estimate for Q2 2014 GDP growth and positive
outlook for the rest of 2014?
For starters, light vehicle and heavy duty truck sales have both accelerated as the
summer has progressed (just like we predicted). Through June we’ve clocked 8.2 million
light vehicles sales; all-in-all not bad and exactly to the halfway point of our 16.4 million
forecast for 2014. Heavy duty has also done extremely well and by our estimate order
books are full for the rest of year and we doubt there will be any open slots until at least
the end of Q1 2015. Heavy duty is in many ways more important than light, much more
in fact, because it is a leading indicator of future economic activity. If the people that
drive our freight are ordering more trucks that probably means their business is picking
up – a very good indicator of future economic activity.
Second, housing; yes we know we keep mentioning it, but it has been a laggard since the
financial crisis. Traditionally housing leads the economy out of a recession, this time,
however, we would argue it was automotive that led the country out of recession. But
manufacturing can only do so much and we need to see housing recover and fortunately
we’re seeing that now with strong activity in existing home sales and positive reads from
new home construction.
11
[ ECONOMIC TRENDS continued ]
Third, the employment story is distinctly positive and getting better. June jobs growth
came in at 288,000 and the month was the second in a row with growth well above the
critical 150,000 jobs threshold. Why do we care so much about 150K? Well it’s a nice
round number for one, but more importantly it represents the number of new entrants
into the labor force each month. Basically we’re
adding people to the labor force who will be
HOUSING STARTS
unemployed if jobs growth is less than 150K; over
Historical Housing Starts
150K and we’re employing all new entrants into the
2,500
Forecast Housing Starts
labor force including those currently unemployed.
2,000
U.S. Housing Starts,
Units in thousands
Granted it’s a bit more complicated than that, but
trust us, you don’t really want the details – it’s just a
bunch of overly complicated algebra you’ve long
forgotten.*
1,500
1,000
500
We’re basically holding our vehicle forecast
0
unchanged at 16.4 million light vehicles because we
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
believe the economy looks set to surprise in second
half of 2014. While our GDP forecast is revised
EMPLOYMENT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
downward to 1.6% for 2014, employment growth,
360
earlier forecast. Our view remains that Q1 2014 was
really an anomaly. Basically we had a really bad
quarter with a horrible winter, one that made
people feel so bad that they decided to make up for
it by buying near-record levels of new cars (or new
Forecast
320
Monthly Non-Farm Employment Change,
in Thousands, SA
unchanged, still trending upward and following our
Historical
340
the housing outlook, and retail sales are all
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
used cars) – that’s a win in our book and it’s exactly
how you should think of it too.
20
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
*There is an open debate about the exact number a good introduction to recent thought on how many jobs are needed to keep up with
population growth can be found here: Http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/chicago_fed_letter/2013/july_312.cfm
12
[ ATD/NADA OFFICIAL COMMERCIAL TRUCK GUIDE® TRENDS ]
Monthly Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value
July 2014 v. June 2014
NADA Segment
2008MY
2009MY
2010MY
2011MY
2012MY*
Commercial Van
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Extended Hood
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Highway Aerodynamic
-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.1%
0.0%
-0.9%
Highway Traditional
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Local/Delivery Daycab
-0.5%
-2.5%
-3.7%
-10.4%
-16.3%
Medium Duty Cabover
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Medium Duty Conventional
0.0%
-1.9%
-0.7%
0.7%
1.2%
Vocational/Construction
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
*Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles.
Annual Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value
July, 2013 v. 2014
NADA Segment
Commercial Van
Extended Hood
Highway Aerodynamic
Highway Traditional
Medium Duty Cabover
5YR
-1.0%
1.7%
7.8%
2.7%
4.4%
-19.2%
6.3%
-1.5%
4YR
13.8%
6.6%
3.5%
6.6%
-1.4%
14.8%
-4.0%
19.2%
3YR
-4.8%
5.8%
9.9%
6.3%
3.4%
6.9%
-11.9%
N/A
2YR
5.1%
-2.9%
8.8%
1.9%
-15.1%
N/A
-5.5%
N/A
Segment
Change
2.3%
2.5%
9.0%
8.7%
0.3%
-6.8%
-4.1%
11.9%
*Calculations are based on vehicle age, i.e. values for 1-year-old vehicles in CY2014 are compared against values for
1-year-old vehicles in CY2013.
YTD Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value
NADA Segment
2008MY
2009MY
2010MY
2011MY
2012MY*
YTD
Segment
Commercial Van
1.3%
3.2%
-6.3%
-6.1%
-6.1%
-3.7%
Extended Hood
-1.5%
-3.7%
-7.8%
-8.0%
-7.4%
-3.0%
Highway Aerodynamic
-4.7%
-3.6%
-8.7%
-7.0%
-10.5%
-5.4%
Highway Traditional
-3.3%
-2.8%
-8.8%
-7.7%
-6.4%
-4.2%
-6.3%
-6.5%
-12.1%
-16.7%
-21.8%
-7.9%
Medium Duty Cabover
-7.1%
-5.0%
-3.7%
-11.8%
-7.3%
-5.7%
-0.1%
-3.5%
-1.6%
-8.8%
-6.1%
-3.5%
-6.5%
-6.6%
-2.8%
-2.4%
-2.3%
-7.8%
13
AT NADA USED CAR GUIDE
What’s New
NADA Online delivers values from 10 different NADA guidebooks including commercial trucks. Starting at $385 per
year, NADA Online is comprehensive, easy to use and includes mobile web access free with your subscription. And
since it’s web-based, there is no software to install and your whole staff can use it at the same time without the need
for additional user licenses. NADA Online provides NADA Retail, Loan and Wholesale values for truck and trailers
dating back to the 2000 model year.
If you’re looking for a small number of commercial vehicle values, the Official Commercial Truck Guide Online MiniPack provides three values online for $40.
On the Road
Stay up to date with the latest in the commercial truck industry by stopping by NADA’s Commercial Truck Blog and our
Market Overviews video section of the website. Updated twice per week by Chris, the blog provides real-time analysis
of incoming sales data from the industry’s leading used truck sales database. NADA produces a monthly market
overview video to provide further insight into the commercial truck market.
About NADA Used Car Guide
Since 1933, NADA Used Car Guide has earned its reputation as the leading provider of vehicle
valuation products, services and information to businesses throughout the United States and
worldwide. NADA’s editorial team collects and analyzes over one million combined
automotive and truck wholesale and retail transactions per month. Its guidebooks, auction
data, analysis and data solutions offer automotive/truck, finance, insurance and government
professionals the timely information and reliable solutions they need to make better business
decisions. Visit nada.com/b2b to learn more.
Senior Analyst and
Product Manager
Chris Visser
800.248.6232 x4731
cvisser@nada.org
Credit Unions, Fleet, Lease, Rental
Industry, Government
Doug Ott
800.248.6232 x4710
dott@nada.org
Automotive Dealers,
Auctions, Insurance
Dan Ruddy
800.248.6232 x4707
druddy@nada.org
Business Development
Manager
James Gibson
800.248.6232 x7136
jgibson@nada.org
Financial Industry,
Accounting, Legal,
OEM Captive
Steve Stafford
800.248.6232 x7275
sstafford@nada.org
14
NADA CONSULTING SERVICES
NADA’s market intelligence team leverages a database of nearly 200 million transactions and more than
100 economic and market-related series to describe the factors driving current trends to help industry stakeholders
make more informed decisions. Analyzing data at both wholesale and retail levels, the team continuously provides
content that is both useful and usable to dealers, financial institutions, businesses and consumers.
Complemented by NADA’s analytics team, which maintains and advances NADA’s internal forecasting models and
develops customized forecasting solutions for clients, the market intelligence team is responsible for publishing white
papers, special reports and the Commercial Vehicle Blog. Throughout every piece of content, the team strives to go
beyond what is happening in the industry to confidently answer why it is happening and how it will impact the market
in the future.
Senior Director, Vehicle Analysis & Analytics
Jonathan Banks
800.248.6232 x4709
jbanks@nada.org
Senior Analyst and Product Manager
Chris Visser
800.248.6232 x4731
cvisser@nada.org
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
Guidelines
White Papers
Updated monthly with a robust data set
from various industry sources and
NADA’s own proprietary analytical tool,
Guidelines provides the insight needed
to make decisions in today’s market.
NADA’s white papers and special reports
aim to inform industry stakeholders on
current and expected used vehicle price
movement to better maximize today’s
opportunities and manage tomorrow’s risk.
NADA Perspective
Commercial Vehicle Blog
Leveraging data from various industry
sources and NADA’s analysts, NADA
Perspective takes a deep dive into a
range of industry trends to determine
why they are happening and what to
expect in the future.
Written and managed by Senior Analyst
Chris Visser, the Commercial Vehicle
Blog analyzes market data, lends insight
into industry trends and highlights
relevant events.
Connect with NADA
Read our Blog
Follow Us on Twitter
Find Us on Facebook
Watch Us on YouTube
nada.com/commercialtruck
@NADAUsedCarGde
Facebook.com/NADAUsedCarGuide
Youtube.com/NADAUsedCarGuide
Disclaimer: NADA Used Car Guide makes no representations about future performance or results based on the data and the contents available in this report (“Guidelines”). Guidelines is
provided for informational purposes only and is provided AS IS without warranty or guarantee of any kind. By accessing Guidelines via email or the NADA website, you agree not to reprint,
reproduce, or distribute Guidelines without the express written permission of NADA Used Car Guide.
15

NADA Commercial Truck Guide Industry Update July 2014

Transcription

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