IZ3. South Yorkshire Fire and Rescue Service: `Premonition`

PREMONITION
Modelling Fire Risk Behaviours and Attitudes in the
South Yorkshire Region to improve the Identification of
Areas at Risk of Fire in the Community
Steve Fletcher
South Yorkshire Fire & Rescue
and
Dermot Breslin
University of Sheffield
What is an Agent-Based Model
• An Agent-Based Model (ABM) simulates behaviours of
individuals within a community over time
• An ABM includes the interact and connection between
individuals (i.e. how individuals influence each other)
•Agents behaves
according to ‘simple’
rules relating to
behaviours under study
• Over time patterns of
behave emerge and
evolve within the
community of agents
What are the Model Inputs for
Premonition?
• Distribution of Mosaic
type at household level
for Gleadless Valley
region of Sheffield
• Historical data relating to
smoking, alcohol
consumption in region
• Statistical data on fire
risk behaviours for
different Mosaic types
• Incident reports for
Gleadless Valley region
• Home Safety Check data
for Gleadless Valley
region
Modelling Fire Risk Behaviours
and Assessments of Risk
Household
Mosaic UK classification group
Assessment of
Risk
Influence of
others
Mosaic Type
Daily
Household
Behaviours
Fire Risk
Behaviours
How do agents influence each
other
Influence of
Family
Social Network
Influence
Influence of
Neighbours
Influence of
Peers
Influence
of community group
leaders
Influence of
Friends
The Effect of Social Connectivity
and Individual Behaviours
Framingham Studies in
Massachusetts on effect of social
connectedness on obesity,
smoking, happiness (Nicholas
Christakis and James Fowler,
Harvard Medical School, 2007-8)
Key Benefits and Deliverables
• Improved understanding of research on fire risk behaviours nationally, and
use of historical data relating to changing community behaviours locally.
• By predicting changing patterns of high risk behaviours in the Sheffield
region, it can be used by SYFR as a key tool in strategic and operational
planning activities, such as scenario planning, the exploration of different
preventative intervention strategies, and the optimisation of resource allocation.
• Improved protection
of
vulnerable
communities by better identification of
effective interventions in areas at high risk.
While the initiative will be initially
implemented within South Yorkshire, it has
the potential to be extended to regional and
national levels.