Al-Hokair Group - Aljazira Capital
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Al-Hokair Group - Aljazira Capital
Al-Hokair Group January 2015 Initiation | KSA | Hotel & Tourism Sector Please read Disclaimer on the back • Hospitality and entertainment business the key – The Company’s main revenue generators are its hospitality and entertainment businesses which contribute almost 95% of total revenues. The company has a total of 28 hotels and 50 parks and entertainment centers across Saudi Arabia and UAE. It is worth noting that the company owns and manages 13 restaurants, 7 of which are located in within the company’s entertainment venues. • Occupancy rate a concern - The tourism industry in Saudi Arabia is limited to religious tourism and business travel, due to which overall occupancy is limited in other cities (except for Riyadh, Damamm, Makkah, Madina, Jeddah) resulting in lower occupancy rates. Riyadh and Damamm attract most of business travellers, whereas Makkah , Madina and Jeddah attract the religious tourists. The rest of the country, tourism activity is considerably low. The company is looking to open 3 new hotels by the end of 2014 in the cities of Riyadh, Jeddah and Jizan. We believe for the company to maintain its growth cycle a concentrated effort is required to open hotels aimed at religious tourism, the cities of Makkah and Madina, so far the company has no presence in these cities. However it has strong presence in the city of Jeddah which is very near to Makkah. Refer to Appendix Graph 2 for futher details on hotels, number of rooms, and occupancy . SAR105 12-month price target; SAR68.75 Current Price: 52.7% Upside / (downside): Price Chart 12000 120 10000 100 8000 80 6000 60 4000 40 2000 20 0 42018 42015 42008 42001 41994 41987 41980 41973 41966 41959 41952 41945 41938 41931 41924 41917 41910 41903 41896 41889 41882 41875 41868 41861 41854 41847 41840 41833 41826 41819 • Hospitality business the torch bearer of revenue growth – Hospitality segment contributed 61% of the total revenue generated by the company. The company has established 28 hotels including furnished apartments and resorts with a total room capacity of 3,473 by end of 20131. In addition, the company also oversees the management of one hotel in UAE. The company caters to the midscale segment of the sector. Some of the major brand names under which the company operates are Hilton, Holiday Inn, Golden Tulip, Tulip Inn and Novotel. The company manages its hotels under four different types of structures. (i) Hotels managed by the company according to franchise agreement,(ii) Hotels managed by international operators according to management agreement, (iii) Chain of local hotels managed by the company, (iv) hotels managed and operated by the company on behalf of other parties. For further details on the management agreements refer to Appendix Table 1. ‘Overweight’ Recommendation TASI 0 Al Hokair Key information Reuters code: Bloomberg code: Country: Sector: Primary Listing: M-Cap: 52 Weeks H/L (SAR): 1820.SE AATD AB KSA Hospitality KSA exchange SAR3,822mn 102.75/50.25 Abdulmohsen Al-Hokair Group for Tourism and Development Company was established for the purposes of set up, management, operation and maintenance of amusement parks, entertainment centers, health and tourist resorts, restaurants, coffee shops, relaxation centers, gardens, hotels, furnished apartments, commercial centers and training and educational centers. • JV with Rezidor, key growth driver – Towards the end of 2013 the company entered into a JV with Rezidor group with the aim to develop “Radisson Blu” and “Park Inn” brands in KSA. The JV is 60% owned by Rezidor and 40% by Al Hokair Group. Under the agreement, a number of company’s hotels will be re-branded into the JV hotel (for a full list of hotels to be rebranded refer to the Appendix Table 3). In addition the JV is also expected to enter into an international management contract through which the JV will manage The “Radisson Blu” and “Park Inn” brands. We believe this will impact the company positively as with a stronger brand name, occupancy and revenue per room (Revpar) can be expected to improve. • Entertainment business, rebranding to support growth - Entertainment business contributed approximately 35% to the top-line in 2013. The company manages 43 locations in KSA and 7 locations in the UAE. The modus operandi for the business is to open locations in popular malls in the kingdom. The company in alliance with leading mall developers, such as Arabian Centers, Al Rashid Trading & Contracting Co, Kinan International Real Estate Development and Mohammad Al Habib Real Estate Co, is aggressively looking to expand its presence. The company has re-branded its entertainment sites to “Sparkys”. This will also help the company in streamlining its offerings which can result in improved customer loyalty. For details on customer visits to entertainment sites refer to appendix Graph 3. In addition to the indoor sites the company also has 6 outdoor parks. • Financial growth - Based on our estimates, the company’s revenue will increase at a CAGR of 11.2%, during 2013-17; where the growth in revenues will be primarily driven by the hotels business which is expected to show a CAGR of 14.0%, during the same period. We expect the company to peak in 2015, since rooms addition during 2014 will be fully operational during 2015. In 2014 and expected 873 room will added. Moreover, we expect stability in the gross and operating margins, as net income is expected to show a CAGR of 12.2%. 1 1 Refer to Appendix Graph 1 © All rights reserved Senior Analyst Analyst Talha Nazar Sultan Al Kadi +966 11 2256115 t.nazar@aljaziracapital.com.sa +966 11 2256374 s.alkadi@aljaziracapital.com.sa Al-Hokair Group January 2015 Initiation | KSA | Hotel & Tourism Sector Please read Disclaimer on the back Key financial indicators Company snapshot 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Revenues 770.4 7% 178.8 2% 33% 20% 23% NA* NA* NA* 880.1 14% 195.7 9% 30% 19% 22% NA* NA* NA* 977.1 11% 221.4 13% 32% 21% 23% 15.2 2.8 3.6% 1153.8 18% 262.7 19% 31% 21% 23% 14.5 2.8 3.6% 1273.1 10% 283.7 8% 31% 21% 22% 13.5 2.5 3.6% 1380.5 8% 310.5 9% 32% 22% 22% 12.3 2.2 3.6% Growth (%) Net Income Growth (%) EBITDA Margins EBIT Margins Net Profit Margins PE (x) PB (x) Dividend Yield Source: AlJazira Capital, *Not available, for years 2014 & onwards we used closing price of 18th Oct 2014. • Investment consideration – By employing DCF valuation methodology, we arrived at a 12-month price target of SAR105/share for Al Hokair group. This indicates the stock, at a current market price of SAR68.75/share (as of 15th January 2015), is offering a potential upside of 52.7% and trading at prospective 2015 PE and PBV of 14.40x and 2٫8x, respectively. The company is expected to pay a dividend of SAR 2.5/share, depicting a dividend yield of 3.6% . We, therefore, initiate our coverage on Al Hokair group with an ‘Overweight’ recommendation. Key risks to valuation: • Concentration risk: Revenue sources are concentrated in Saudi Arabia and in specific hotels, where more than 95% of revenues are from operations in Saudi Arabia while a large percentage of hospitality sector revenue come from domestic hotels in Al Hokair’s portfolio. The possibility of a domestic sector slowdown would have a meaningful impact on the company’s cash flows. We do not believe the sector is currently under risk of a slowdown. However, the company is highly exposed to domestic industry risks. 2 © All rights reserved Al-Hokair Group January 2015 Initiation | KSA | Hotel & Tourism Sector Please read Disclaimer on the back Valuation Summary Our DCF based valuation methodology is based on 10-year explicit cash flows to reduce the sensitivity of our valuation to terminal value with the following key assumptions; • Terminal growth rate is taken at 3.0%. • 5-year monthly sector raw beta of 0.798 (Bloomberg); in order to reduce the impact of volatility. Since the stock has not been listed for a reasonable period of time, therefore the company beta reading are skewed, for that matter we have considered the sector beta. • Risk free rate is taken at 2.84%. The calculation of RFR is based on the summation of i) 10-year US government bond yield of 2.13%; and ii) country default spread (CDS) of 0.7% for Saudi Arabia. • KSA total market risk premium is taken at 12.6% from Bloomberg. Hence, the equity risk premium is calculated at 9.78%. • Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to calculate cost of equity at 10.7%. • Cost of debt is taken at 4.1%. • Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is calculated at 9.40%. DCF based valuation methodology All figures in SAR Mn, unless specified FCF No of Year Discounted FCF Sum OF DFCF Net Debt DCF Price Target 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 278 1 265 215 2 188 241 3 193 274 4 200 315 5 211 329 6 201 358 7 200 383 8 195 391 9 182 536 10 228 Terminal Value 8618 10 3670 5732 -43 5775 105 Source: Aljazira capital The table below highlights the sensitivity of Hokair Groups’ DCF based 12-month price target with different terminal growth & WACC. Sensitivity analysis Growth WACC 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 7.4% 120 135 158 193 258 8.4% 102 112 126 147 180 9.4% 88 95 105 118 137 10.4% 78 83 90 98 111 11.4% 69 73 78 84 92 Source: Aljazira capital 3 © All rights reserved Al-Hokair Group January 2015 Initiation | KSA | Hotel & Tourism Sector Please read Disclaimer on the back Appendix Graph 1:Hotel Rooms Hotel Rooms Avaliable 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 No. of available rooms Source: Al Hokair Group Prospectus, Aljazira Research Table 1: Management Agreements 1. Hotels Managed by the Company according to franchise agreement: Ownership of the business, management control and day to day operations remain with the company in return for a franchise fee paid to the international hotel operator, and other fees against participation in marketing and in the booking system, and overall, they represent of 1-5% of room revenues. As of 31/12/2013, 15 out of the 28 hotels are company managed according to this structure. These hotels represent 57.4% of total hotel revenues. 2. Hotels managed by international operators according to management agreement: The company rents and equips locations and hotels according to the specifications of an international hotel operator who manages the property and day-to-day operations. The company pays a basic management fee to the international hotel operator as well as an incentive based fee and complementary fees. These fees represent 5-11% of the gross operating profit. As of 31/12/2013, 6 out of the 28 Hotels are managed by international hotel operators pursuant to this structure. These hotels represent 24.6% of total Hotel revenues. 3. Chain of local hotels managed by the company: The company manages and operates a number of hotels (including furnished apartments. As of 31/12/2013, 7 of the 28 hotels are managed by the company under this structure. These hotels represent 14.7% of total hotel revenues. 4. Hotels managed and operated by the company on behalf of other parties: the company manages and operates the day-to-day operations of the hotel based on its expertise on behalf of other parties against 5% of the hotel’s revenues and earnings. As of 31/12/2013, the company oversees and manages one hotel under this structure: the Golden Tulip Suites Dubai in the UAE owned by Al Hokair Group Est. Source: Al Hokair Group prospectus 4 © All rights reserved Al-Hokair Group January 2015 Initiation | KSA | Hotel & Tourism Sector Please read Disclaimer on the back Graph 2: Hotel Rooms Revenue Constituents 700 64% 600 62% 500 60% SAR 400 58% 300 56% 200 54% 100 52% 0 50% 2007 2009 2010 2011 Average Daily Rate (SAR) 2012 2013 2014 Room occupancy Rate 2015 2016 2017 Average Revenue Per Room (SAR) Source: Al Hokair Group Prospectus, Aljazira Research Table 2: Company hotels No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Hotels Holiday Inn Al Qasr Golden Tulip Al Nasiriya Hilton Garden Inn Olaya Holiday Inn Olaya Al Andalusia Al Souleimania Villas Suite Novotel Yamama Resort (Chalets) MENA Riyadh Al Takhassousi Apartments TOTAL Holiday Inn Al Salam Golden Tulip Jeddah Tulip Inn Regency(Furnished Apartments) Al Hamra Pullman Red Sea Palace TOTAL Holiday Inn Khobar Holiday Inn Corniche Golden Tulip Khobar Half Moon Bay Holiday Inn Resort TOTAL Novotel Business Park Tulip Inn Dammam TOTAL Hilton Double Tree Dhahran Golden Tulip Al Jubail Tulip Inn Yanbu Tulip Inn Taif Qasr Al Baha Golden Tulip Hotel and Resort Golden Tulip Hail Haql Beach Resort (Sea Chalets) Golden Tulip Suites TOTAL Rooms and Suites Location Riyadh Jeddah Al Khobar Dammam Dhahran Al Jubail Yanbu Taif Baha Hail Haql Dubai KSA & UAE Rooms Suites Agreement 160 180 152 257 92 60 114 1,015 299 219 162 262 942 97 166 74 60 397 138 138 104 0 6 68 66 50 24 30 2840 43 8 28 41 15 30 55 31 50 17 318 20 0 36 91 15 162 9 20 32 41 102 21 55 76 54 65 45 16 60 31 0 60 989 A* A* B** B** C*** C*** A* C*** C*** C*** A* A* A* B** C*** A* A* A* A* B** A* B** B** A* A* A* A* C*** D**** Source: Al Hokair Group Prospectus , * A:Hotels Managed by the Company According to Franchise Agreements, ** B:Hotels Managed by International Operators According to a Management Agreement, *** C:Al Hokair Group’s Local Brand Hotels and Furnished Apartments Managed by the Company, 5 ****D: Hotels Managed by the Company on behalf of Other Parties © All rights reserved Al-Hokair Group January 2015 Initiation | KSA | Hotel & Tourism Sector Please read Disclaimer on the back Table 3:Group’s hotels anticipated to be re-branded into JV Hotels Hotels Approximate Conversion Date Golden Tulip Al Khobar Q4-2014 Golden Tulip Al Nasiria Q4-2014 Golden Tulip Al Jubail Q1-2015 Mina Al Riyadh Q2-2014 Red Sea Palace Jeddah During Q3-2015 Golden Tulip Qasr Al Baha Hotel and Resort Q4-2014 Tulip Inn Al Taif Q3-2014 Tulip Inn Dammam Q2-2014 Golden Tulip Hail Q1-2015 Radisson Blu Jizan (under development) Q3-2014 Source: Al Hokair Group Prospectus Graph 3: Customer Visits to Entertainment sites 12 40.0 10 35.0 6 30.0 SAR Million Visitors 8 4 25.0 2 0 20.0 2008 2009 2010 No. of visitors 2011 -LHS 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average amount spent by each Visitor 2017 -RHS Source: Al Hokair Group Prospectus, Aljazira Research 6 © All rights reserved Al-Hokair Group January 2015 Initiation | KSA | Hotel & Tourism Sector Please read Disclaimer on the back Financials Income Statement in mn SAR REVENUES Hotels Entertainment Others TOTAL REVENUES % Growth DIRECT COSTS Hotels Entertainment Others TOTAL DIRECT COSTS GROSS PROFIT EXPENSES Selling and marketing General and administrative TOTAL EXPENSES INCOME FROM MAIN OPERATIONS Share in net results of associates Financial charges Other income, net INCOME FROM CONTINUING OPERATIONS INCOME BEFORE ZAKAT Zakat NET INCOME FOR THE YEAR % Growth Balance Sheet in mn SAR ASSETS CURRENT ASSETS Bank balances and cash Accounts receivable Prepayments and other current assets Inventories Amounts due from related parties TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS NON-CURRENT ASSETS Investments in associates Projects under construction Property and equipment Goodwill Other assets TOTAL NON-CURRENT ASSETS TOTAL ASSETS 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 483 273 14 770 7% 553 310 17 880 14% 650 309 18 977 11% 790 343 20 1,154 18% 876 375 22 1,273 10% 935 422 24 1,381 8% (297) (172) (6) (475) 295 (342) (206) (6) (554) 326 (398) (200) (7) (606) 372 (487) (222) (8) (717) 437 (539) (245) (8) (793) 480 (575) (274) (9) (858) 523 (30) (112) (142) 153 28 (4) 7 183 183 (5) 179 2% (33) (123) (156) 169 26 (9) 12 198 198 (3) 196 9% (37) (132) (170) 202 26 (11) 9 226 226 (4) 221 13% (44) (149) (192) 245 26 (13) 10 268 268 (5) 263 19% (49) (163) (211) 269 26 (15) 10 289 289 (6) 284 8% (52) (173) (225) 297 26 (17) 10 316 316 (6) 310 9% 47 35 50 22 4 158 135 40 108 23 23 329 335 46 74 27 23 505 480 55 90 33 23 682 660 63 109 38 23 893 861 70 125 43 23 1,123 89 15 672 39 27 843 1,001 107 79 660 39 886 1,215 107 29 670 39 845 1,350 107 49 668 39 864 1,546 107 59 667 39 873 1,766 107 65 665 39 876 1,999 62 116 69 2.7 250 47 117 105 0.2 269 53 121 126 0.2 300 59 137 145 0.2 341 64 144 171 0.2 379 68 148 192 0.2 409 LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY LIABILITIES CURRENT LIABILITIES Accounts payable Accrued expenses and other current liabilities Bank borrowings and term loans Current portion of obligations under TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES Term loans Employees’ terminal benefits TOTAL NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES TOTAL LIABILITIES SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY Share capital Statutory reserve Retained earnings Proposed Dividend TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY 130 42 173 423 147 40 187 456 166 40 207 507 196 40 237 578 232 40 273 652 262 40 303 712 408 86 85 578 1,001 550 20 120 69 759 1,215 550 42 182 69 842 1,350 550 68 281 69 968 1,546 550 96 399 69 1,114 1,766 550 127 541 69 1,287 1,999 Cash Flow in mn SAR Net cash from operating activities Net cash used in investing activities Cash flow from Financing Activity Changes in Cash Opening Balance of Cash Murabaha Deposit Closing Balance of Cash 194 (130) (26) 37 10 47 196 (239) 39 (3) 47 90 135 348 (70) (77) 201 135 335 352 (137) (70) 145 335 480 377 (136) (61) 180 480 660 416 (141) (73) 201 660 861 Source: Al Hokair Group Prospectus, Aljazira Research 7 © All rights reserved Al-Hokair Group January 2015 Initiation | KSA | Hotel & Tourism Sector Please read Disclaimer on the back Ratios Ratios 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Current Ratio(x) 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.7 Quick Ratio (x) 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.6 Receivables Days Turnover 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 Inventory Days Turnover 10.4 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 Payables Days Turnover 47.6 30.9 32.0 30.0 29.5 29.0 31% 26% 26% 27% 25% 24% Liquidity Ratio Efficency Ratios Profitability ROE ROIC 23% 19% 20% 20% 19% 18% ROA 18% 16% 16% 17% 16% 16% Margins Gross Margins 38% 37% 38% 38% 38% 38% EBITDA Margins 33% 30% 32% 31% 31% 32% EBIT Margins 20% 19% 21% 21% 21% 22% Net Margins 23% 22% 23% 23% 22% 22% Debt to Equity 35% 33% 35% 35% 36% 35% Debt to Capital 17% 17% 18% 18% 19% 19% TIE ( Time Interest Earned) 42.0 21.0 20.6 20.9 19.1 18.5 Leveraging Ratios Valuations Dividend Yield NA* NA* 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% Book Value Per Share (BVPS) 30.0 24.6 22.1 24.5 28.1 32.1 Market Capitalization(in SAR Mn) NA* NA* 3355.0 3822.5 3822.5 3822.5 Enterprise value (in SAR Mn) NA* NA* 3312.1 3683.8 3565.4 3415.8 PE (x) NA* NA* 15.2 14.5 13.5 12.3 PB (x) NA* NA* 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.2 EV/EBITDA (x) NA* NA* 10.6 10.2 9.0 7.8 EPS (diluted) 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.8 5.2 5.6 Source: Al Hokari Group Prospectus, Aljazira Research 8 © All rights reserved RESEARCH DIVISION Syed Taimure Akhtar +966 11 2256250 a.alawi@aljaziracapital.com.sa +966 11 2256146 s.akhtar@aljaziracapital.com.sa Sultan Al Kadi +966 11 2256374 s.alkadi@aljaziracapital.com.sa BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION RESEARCH DIVISION Senior Analyst Abdullah Alawi Analyst Senior Analyst Talha Nazar +966 11 2256115 t.nazar@aljaziracapital.com.sa Analyst Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248 j.aljabran@aljaziracapital.com.sa General manager - brokerage services and sales AGM-Head of international and institutional AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC Ala’a Al-Yousef brokerage Brokerage +966 11 2256000 a.yousef@aljaziracapital.com.sa Luay Jawad Al-Motawa Abdullah Q. Al-Misbani +966 11 2256277 lalmutawa@aljaziracapital.com.sa +966 12 6618400 a.almisbahi@aljaziracapital.com.sa AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province AGM - Head of Institutional Brokerage Central Region Abdullah Al-Rahit Samer Al- Joauni Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa +966 16 3617547 aalrahit@aljaziracapital.com.sa +966 1 225 6352 s.alJoauni@aljaziracapital.com.sa +966 11 2256364 s.almutawa@aljaziracapital.com.sa AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1. RATING TERMINOLOGY AGM - Head of Research 2. 3. 4. Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. 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