Recent structural evolution of the Cumbre Vieja volcano, La Palma
Transcription
Recent structural evolution of the Cumbre Vieja volcano, La Palma
Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 Ž1999. 135–167 www.elsevier.comrlocaterjvolgeores Recent structural evolution of the Cumbre Vieja volcano, La Palma, Canary Islands: volcanic rift zone reconfiguration as a precursor to volcano flank instability? S.J. Day a a,b,) , J.C. Carracedo b,c , H. Guillou d , P. Gravestock b Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre, UniÕersity College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK b Department of Geography and Geology, Cheltenham and Gloucester College of Higher Education, UK c Estacion de Canarias, CSIC, La Laguna, Tenerife, Spain ´ Volcanologica ´ d Centre des Faibles RadioactiÕites, ´ CEA-CNRS, France Received 10 May 1999 Abstract The Cumbre Vieja volcano is the youngest component of the island of La Palma. It is a very steep-sided oceanic island volcano, of a type which may undergo large-scale lateral collapse with little precursory deformation. Reconfiguration of the volcanic rift zones and underlying dyke swarms of the volcano is used to determine the present degree of instability of the volcano. For most of its history, from before 125 ka ago to around 20 ka, the Cumbre Vieja volcano was characterised by a triple Ž‘‘Mercedes Star’’. volcanic rift zone geometry. The three rift zones were unequally developed, with a highly productive south rift zone and weaker NE and NW rift zones: the disparity in activity was probably due to topographicgravitational stresses associated with the west facing Cumbre Nueva collapse structure underneath the western flank of the Cumbre Vieja. From 20 ka to about 7 ka, activity on the NW volcanic rift zone diminished and the intersection of the rift zones migrated slightly to the north. More recently, the triple rift geometry has been replaced at the surface by a N–S-trending rift zone which transects the volcano, and by E–W-trending en echelon fissure arrays on the western flank of the volcano. The NE rift zone has become completely inactive. This structural reconfiguration indicates weakening of the western flank of the volcano. The most recent eruption near the summit of the Cumbre Vieja, that of 1949, was accompanied by development of a west facing normal fault system along the crest of the volcano. The geometry of this fault system and the timing of its formation in relation to episodes of vent opening during the eruption indicate that it is not the surface expression of a dyke. Instead, it is interpreted as being the first surface rupture along a developing zone of deformation and seaward movement within the western flank of the Cumbre Vieja: the volcano is therefore considered to be at an incipient stage of flank instability. Climatic factors or strain weakening along the Cumbre Nueva collapse structure may account for the recent development of this instability. q 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Cumbre Vieja volcano; volcanic rift zones; volcanic vents ) Corresponding author. Tel.: q44-171-504-2212; fax: q44-171-380-7193; E-mail s.day@ucl.ac.uk 0377-0273r99r$ - see front matter q 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. PII: S 0 3 7 7 - 0 2 7 3 Ž 9 9 . 0 0 1 0 1 - 8 136 S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 1. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, La Palma: a highly active and potentially unstable oceanic island volcano The Cumbre Vieja volcano forms the southern third of the island of La Palma. La Palma and the adjacent island of El Hierro are the youngest islands in the Canarian archipelago and are presently in a ‘‘shield building’’ phase of activity comparable to the present activity of the island of Hawaii ŽCarracedo et al., 1998; Carracedo et al., 1999b-this volume.. The Cumbre Vieja rises to almost 2 km above sea level Ž6 km above the surrounding ocean floor. and has a subaerial area of 220 km2 and a subaerial volume of about 125 km3 , yet the oldest dated rocks within it are only about 125 ka old ŽGuillou et al., 1998.. There is also an unknown but probably at least comparable volume of rock in the submarine part of the volcano, which has grown southwards from the preexisting northern part of the island ŽFig. 1.. It is likely that activity of the volcano began significantly before 125 ka. Carracedo et al. Ž1999a, 1999b-this volume. discuss the stratigraphy and geochronology of the Cumbre Vieja and its Fig. 1. Simplified geological map of La Palma. S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 relationship to the older parts of the island of La Palma. A particularly important feature of the latter is the presence of an older collapse scar, the Cumbre Nueva collapse scar, upon which the Cumbre Vieja is partly built. This contribution complements these stratigraphic and geochronological studies by considering the structural evolution of the Cumbre Vieja. The structural study of the Cumbre Vieja described here was carried out in order to address concerns raised by the 1949 eruption of the volcano ŽBonelli Rubio, 1950., during which west facing fault ruptures developed along the crest of the volcano. Following the recognition that giant lateral collapses are a common feature of oceanic island volcanoes, as discussed below, the question has arisen of whether this faulting might be a precursor to a future giant lateral collapse of the western flank of the Cumbre Vieja ŽCarracedo, 1994, 1996a,b.. This paper also seeks to identify the timing and time scales of any structural changes that have taken place within the Cumbre Vieja edifice in the past, using the results of detailed mapping ŽCarracedo et al., 1997a. and highly accurate radiometric dating ŽGuillou et al., 1998.. The work was coupled with geodetic monitoring of the volcano ŽMoss et al., 1999-this volume.. 2. Precursors to lateral collapse at island volcanoes: is Kilauea typical? Since the collapse of the northern flank of Mt. St. Helens at the start of the eruption of 18th May 1980, the lateral collapse of the flanks of large volcanoes has come to be recognised as a major process in their development and a severe volcanic hazard. The hazards are especially great in the case of lateral collapses at oceanic island volcanoes, both because of the exceptionally large volumes of these collapses and because they have the potential to generate giant tsunami with runup heights of hundreds of metres at distances of hundreds of kilometres ŽMoore, 1964; Moore and Moore, 1984.. In view of these potential consequences, the identification of the long term precursors to giant lateral collapses has become a critical problem to be addressed by studies of oceanic island volcanoes. Attention has focused upon active 137 volcanoes where neotectonic structures, seismicity and geodetic data indicate lateral deformation that may be precursory to a future lateral collapse. Of these by far the best known and intensively studied, partly because it is deforming so rapidly, is Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii ŽSwanson et al., 1976; Holcomb, 1987; Lipman et al., 1988; Clague and Denlinger, 1994; Denlinger and Okubo, 1995.. Although Kilauea is commonly regarded as the type example of an unstable oceanic island volcano, it is in many respects atypical. The Hawaiian volcanoes are larger but less steep than many oceanic island volcanoes, with heights of up to 10 km above the ocean floor and slopes averaging 5–108. In contrast, volcanoes such as the Cumbre Vieja; Teide, on Tenerife; and Pico do Fogo ŽFogo island, Cape Verde islands. rise 6 to 8 km above the surrounding ocean floor but have average slopes between 158 and more than 208. The maximum average subaerial slope of Pico do Fogo is no less than 288. Profiles of the Cumbre Vieja, Fogo and Kilauea, at different scales but all with no vertical exaggeration, are compared in Fig. 2. The greater slope angles make these islands intrinsically less stable, and also imply substantial structural differences between them and Kilauea. The south flank of Kilauea is also atypical in that it shows semi-continuous, partly incremental Žcoseismic. seaward movement which continues through intereruptive periods ŽSwanson et al., 1976.. This probably reflects the persistence of magma and ductile, high temperature cumulates in the deeper parts of the Kilauean rift zones ŽDecker, 1987; Clague and Denlinger, 1994.. In contrast, examination of the San Andres fault system on El Hierro indicates that there was at most a few tens of metres of slip on this fault system before sudden slip of about 300 m in an aborted lateral collapse event ŽDay et al., 1997.. This implies that steep sided oceanic island volcanoes can become prone to catastrophic flank failure after only a little precursory deformation. However, such failure is only likely to occur during eruptions or intrusion events ŽElsworth and Day, 1999-this volume.. This is in marked contrast both to Kilauea and to many stratovolcanoes, where deformation is significant even in intereruptive periods ŽVan Wyk de Vries and Francis, 1997. and collapse may occur without magmatic activity ŽSiebert et al., 1987.. 138 S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 Fig. 2. Topographic profiles through the Cumbre Vieja Žalong lines A–AU and B–BU in Fig. 1., Pico do Fogo and Kilauea-Mauna Loa compared. Note that the profiles are drawn at different scales but that all have no vertical exaggeration. It is therefore important to recognise more subtle features that indicate that an oceanic island volcano such as the Cumbre Vieja is evolving towards, or already in, a state of potential catastrophic lateral instability. In this contribution, we make particular use of the distribution and orientation of volcanic vents. As advocated by Nakamura Ž1977., the distribution of volcanic vents on the flanks of a volcano reflects the distribution of underlying feeder dykes and other intrusions, which are in turn controlled by the stress field in the volcano as originally shown by Anderson Ž1935.. In many cases, these vents are concentrated into volcanic rift zones, and as a first approximation the structural evolution of such a volcano can be studied by considering the evolution of its volcanic rift zones. It should be noted that the S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 term ‘‘ volcanic rift zone’’ is used here in the strict structural sense advocated by Walker Ž1993. rather than the looser topographic sense. As discussed below, the topographic expression of a rift zone may be greatly complicated or even suppressed altogether where it is developed on preexisting topography such as the flank of an earlier volcano: for example, the SW rift zone of Kilauea volcano would be excluded by the topographic definition because it does not form a distinct ridge but instead rests upon the flank of Mauna Loa ŽHolcomb, 1987.. Many components may contribute to the overall stress field controlling the positions and orientations of volcanic rift zones wsee discussion in McGuire Ž1996.x. The result may be a complex stress field which varies both laterally and vertically, and changes with time. It is therefore necessary to have detailed stratigraphic and geochronological control upon the history of changes in vent distribution and also to exploit the additional information provided by vent orientations. It has long been recognised that elongate fissure vents are orientated along the trend of the underlying feeder dykes. Tibaldi Ž1995. showed that the orientations of elongate scoria cones and the positions of features such as low points on the rims of the summit craters of the cones could also be used to infer dyke trends. Dyke trends can also be deduced where multiple vents formed in the same eruption can be identified and linked, either from historical records or from careful stratigraphic mapping of the eruption products, particularly pyroclastic sequences. We have used methods similar to Tibaldi’s in the present work, but emphasise in addition the importance of en echelon fissure and vent sets, since these can be used to infer changes in the orientation of the stress field along the trajectory of propagation of the feeder dykes, as discussed further below. 3. Changes in the distribution and orientation of volcanic vents on the Cumbre Vieja volcano 3.1. OÕerall geometry and stratigraphic subdiÕision The Cumbre Vieja volcano is dominated by sequences of basic to intermediate alkaline lavas and 139 pyroclastic units including scoria and spatter cones, phreatomagmatic lithic–scoria–ash breccias and airfall lapilli beds. It also contains a number of phonolite domes and lavas which are scattered over the volcano. The topography of the volcano is dominated by a north–south ridge which runs almost the entire subaerial length of the volcano and also extends offshore for a few kilometres to the south of the island before bending to a south easterly direction ŽMasson, pers. commun... The highest part of this ridge ŽFig. 3. is everywhere above 1700 m elevation for a distance of some 5 km north to south, with a smaller but nevertheless strongly elongate central area generally above 1900 m elevation around the phonolite dome Nambroque. However, this highest area is formed of sequences of superimposed scoria and spatter cones, with subordinate lavas and phonolite domes, similar to much of the rest of the axial ridge and many other parts of the volcano. There is no central summit crater or feeder complex. Although the scattered phonolitic units may have been fed by small and probably transient magma pockets within the volcanic edifice, the near ubiquitous occurrence of lithospheric xenoliths and other petrological evidence indicates that the basic and intermediate magmas are erupted directly from reservoirs in the oceanic lithosphere, below the base of the La Palma edifice ŽKluegel et al., 1997; Hansteen et al., 1998; Kleugel, 1998.. The existence of this summit ridge led to the suggestion that the Cumbre Vieja has only one rift zone and that the volcano is merely a southward overgrowth from the older volcanoes which form the north of La Palma ŽAfonso, 1974; Ancochea et al., 1994.. However, consideration of the vent density distribution ŽCarracedo, 1994, 1996a,b. on the Cumbre Vieja indicates that less topographically distinct NW and NE rift zones are also present on the flanks of the volcano, and that the Cumbre Vieja may have a triple rift or ‘‘Mercedes Star’’ ŽCarracedo, 1994. rift structure, like most other Canarian volcanoes. The vent distribution evidence alone also permits a further alternative, that of a single dominant volcanic rift together with a sparse radial swarm of feeder dykes or vents centred on the highest parts of the summit ridge around Nambroque ŽFig. 3.. Fig. 3 is a simplified version of the geological map of the Cumbre Vieja ŽCarracedo et al., 1997a., 140 S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 Fig. 3. Geological map of the Cumbre Vieja. S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 in which the following main stratigraphic units can be distinguished: Ž1. A cliff-forming sequence of lavas and pyroclastic units intruded by phonolite cryptodomes and lava domes. These rocks predate the end of formation of the palaeocliffs, formed in a period of intense coastal erosion associated with low relative sea level. Rare dykes intruded into this sequence are exposed in the high cliffs along the western coast of La Palma. Lava flows at the top of the cliffs can be traced inland and demonstrated to post date many of the scoria cones, lava flows and phonolite lava domes exposed high on the flanks of the volcano and along the summit ridge. The younger units on the volcano therefore form a thin veneer, less than 100 m thick, on the cliff-forming sequences. Ž2. A platform-forming sequence, including phonolites and pyroclastic rocks but dominated by lavas which have built up a series of lava deltas at the coast. This group of rocks is very widespread, especially in the northeast of the volcano, but only forms a thin veneer on the older rocks. Ž3. Within the platform-forming sequence it is possible to distinguish young lavas and scoria cones, with associated pyroclastic units and at least one group of phonolite cryptodomes. These units are morphologically very fresh, with little vegetation cover, and include both sub-historic and known historic eruptive units. Parts of the coastal platform, especially on the west coast of the volcano, are formed by lavas of this unit. The individual eruptive units belonging to this group are discussed further in Section 3.4, below. These distinctions are primarily made on the relationships of the rocks to coastal erosion features and the obvious freshness of the most recent vents. Nowhere on the volcano are marked compositional changes or breaks in activity Žindicated by laterally extensive terrestrial unconformities, weathering horizons or distal ashfall sequences. present within the sequences. Nevertheless, precise radiometric dating ŽGuillou et al., 1998. has shown that these three units have chronological significance. The cliff-forming sequence formed between about 125 ka and 20 ka; most of the sequences exposed in palaeo-seacliffs up to 700 m high along the west coast were emplaced between 125 ka and about 80 ka, although the whole of the sequences exposed in the lower eastern 141 palaeocliffs are less than about 40 ka old. The older platform-forming sequence formed between 20 ka and about 8 ka; all dated units of the younger sequence are less than 7 ka old. The chronological significance of these stratigraphic units means that the distributions and orientations of volcanic vents and intrusions in the three units can be compared in order to investigate the structural evolution of the volcano through time. 3.2. Volcanic Õents and dykes in the cliff-forming sequence (125–20 ka) As noted above the cliff-forming sequence forms by far the largest part of the volume of the Cumbre Vieja edifice and also a significant part of the present surface area. Sufficient outcrop of cliff-forming series rocks from all parts of the subaerial Cumbre Vieja volcano exists to constrain the distribution of volcanic vents at this period in its evolution. Unfortunately, most of these vents are either partly buried or sufficiently reduced by erosion for evidence of the alignment of the underlying dykes to be doubtful at best. A few exceptions to this rule, including elongate clusters of vents which are inferred to be cogenetic, are indicated in Fig. 4. In addition, a number of WNW- to NW-trending dykes are exposed in the west coast cliff section. These provide important direct evidence for the orientations of feeder dykes to the upper part of the cliff-forming sequence in this area. Occurrences of scoria cones and surtseyan tuff rings in these cliffs also give some indication of vent distributions in the older, otherwise buried parts of the cliff forming sequence. The vents of the cliff-forming series occur in several parts of the volcano. Six sectors can be defined for the purposes of description, converging upon the highest parts of the edifice around Nambroque. The approximate boundaries of these sectors, indicated by letters A–F, are shown in Fig. 4. Sector A forms the axis or crest of the Cumbre Vieja from the south tip of the island to the summit region. Exposures of cliff-forming series rocks in this part of the volcano are dominated by scoria and spatter cones, with subordinate lapilli and phreatic and phreatomagmatic ash units, a few phonolite domes and only very rare lavas. The pit crater of Hoyo Negro, formed in 1949 ŽFigs. 6 and 14. and 142 S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 Fig. 4. Distribution of volcanic vents and dykes during cliff-forming series activity. Sectors A–F discussed in text. S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 still some 150 m deep, exposes at least five discrete but superimposed scoria and spatter cones of the cliff-forming series, and only one small lava flow. Vent elongations, where observed, indicate north– south alignment of feeder dykes in Sector A. It appears to represent a very well developed volcanic rift zone. Sectors B and C, on the flanks of the southern part of the Cumbre Vieja, are not very well exposed except in the coastal palaeocliffs. However, the latter include the highest palaeocliffs in the Cumbre Vieja and provide excellent sections through the cliff-forming sequences in this part of the volcano. In strong contrast to sectors D and E, further north, neither scoria cones nor tuff rings nor dykes are exposed in these cliffs. The sequences are formed by lavas derived from the crest of the volcano ŽSector A.. Thus, no dykes were emplaced radially to the summit area of the volcano in directions to the SE and SW. Sector D, to the west and north-west of the Nambroque area, is a broad zone with a large number of scoria and spatter cones in addition to a few phonolite domes and the coastal dykes at El Remo. Where scoria cone elongation directions can be reliably determined, they indicate underlying feeders trending WNW to NW throughout the sector. Flow banding and flow folds within the Los Campanarios phonolite dome in Sector D are also directed to the NW along bearing 300 Žapproximately., suggesting a similar alignment of the underlying feeder. The concordant WNW to NW trend of feeder dykes, exposed and inferred, is developed throughout Sector D. This is despite the WSW bearing of the southern part of the sector from the summit region of the volcano around Nambroque. The dykes exposed in the cliffs at El Remo are consistently oriented at an angle of 20 to 408 northwards of the bearing that they would be expected to have if they were radial to the summit of the volcano. Apparent north–south alignments of volcanic vents in Sector D, such as the group Montana Todoque–Montana de la Laguna–Montana de Triana–Montana de Gazmira along the coast in the extreme north–west of the sector, are formed by cones of demonstrably different ages. In the case of the group of four cones noted above, Montanas de Triana and Gazmira Žat the northern end of the 143 apparent trend. are substantially more degraded and weathered than the other two. The other two cones show distinct NW–SE elongation indicative of broadly NW-trending feeder dykes. In Sector E, on the eastern and NE flank of the volcano, elongation directions of individual scoria cones and chains of vents such as Montana Hoya Camacho appear to be more variable, changing from NE in the northern part of the sector to easterly or even ESE in the south of Sector E. The elongation directions and vent chains are consistently close to the dip direction of the slope, but also tend to be offset slightly to the north of the local dip direction throughout the sector by an angle of a few tens of degrees. Sector F in the north of the volcano lies between the ill-defined northern margin of Sector D and the much older rocks exposed in the west-facing Cumbre Nueva collapse scar. The southern part of the sector is covered by very young lava flows but it appears to be characterised by a distinctly lower density of earlier scoriarspatter cones than characterises Sector D. Scoria cones in the north of the Sector F are very deeply weathered and morphologically degraded and may in fact be satellite vents of the older Bejenado edifice to the north ŽCarracedo et al., 1999a., projecting through a thin Cumbre Vieja sequence. Furthermore, gravel pits in the northern part of Sector F expose thick sequences of alluvial sediments which appear, along with lava flows to the south, to have ponded within and filled a depression between the Cumbre Nueva collapse scar and a barrier to the west along the eastern edge of Sector D. The nature of this barrier is discussed further below. In summary, the activity of the Cumbre Vieja volcano during this period can be defined by six sectors, with an alternating pattern of vent Žand underlying feeder dyke.-rich and vent-poor sectors. Of the three sectors with abundant vents and inferred feeder dykes, the very narrow N–S zone ŽSector A. has consistently N–S-trending elongate vents and vent alignments; the broad NW zone ŽSector D. has WNW- and NW-trending elongate vents, vent alignments and dykes throughout, even in those parts which lie west and SSW of the summit area of the volcano; and only the NE zone ŽSector E. shows a pattern that could possibly be considered to be partially radial, although NE- to ENE-trending vent 144 S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 alignments are present throughout the zone including those areas due east of the summit. This sectoral pattern indicates that despite the disparity in topographic expressions, the structure of the volcano during the cliff-forming period is best described in terms of a ‘‘Mercedes Star’’ ŽCarracedo, 1994, 1996a,b. triple volcanic rift system. Possible reasons for the disparity in productivity implied by the much greater topographic expression of the N–S rift zone as compared to the other rift zones are discussed further below. 3.3. Volcanic Õents in the early platform-forming sequence (20–7 ka) Early platform-forming series rocks occur in all parts of the Cumbre Vieja. Their distribution is shown in Fig. 5, from which it is apparent that the most extensive platform-forming sequences and the greatest numbers of eruptive vents are present in the southern and NE parts of the volcano. Rocks of this age in the south of the volcano may be underrepresented in Fig. 5 because of covering by younger lavas. The distributions of volcanic vents of this age can be considered in terms of the three rift zones defined above in the cliff-forming series of rocks, but two significant differences are apparent, in the NE and NW rift zones. The vents of the southern, N–S aligned rift zone from Nambroque southwards maintain their concentration in Sector A along the crest of the ridge. N–S elongation of many of these vents is also apparent. The NE rift zone contains many vents of this age and also has the most continuous coastal lava platform in any part of the volcano. The vents show consistent ENE to NE elongations and alignments of multiple vents. The elongation directions and vent alignments again tend to strike slightly obliquely to the overall slope. However, the region of more easterly trending vents in the south of Sector E as defined in Section 3.2 and Fig. 4 appears to have been inactive after about 20 ka before present. In contrast the cover of platform forming lavas further north, although thin, is almost complete and the northern limit of Cumbre Vieja rocks is entirely formed by platform forming lava flows. It therefore appears that the axis of the NE rift zone may have shifted significantly to the north after 20 ka ago. In contrast to the intense activity of the NE rift zone during this period, the NW rift zone, although marked by a number of vents spread over a broad area of sectors D and F Žas defined in Section 3.2., did not produce as great an area of platform forming lavas as in the NE rift. In particular, the distal part of the NW rift zone appears to have become completely inactive. Few vents of this age occur in the south of Zone D indicating that the southern side of the NW rift zone may also have become inactive. Vent elongation directions Žsee also Fig. 7, below. do, however, indicate that the underlying feeder dykes were to the NW and WNW, as before 20 ka. These vent elongation directions, as in the NE rift zone, are commonly oblique to the local topographic slope direction. In comparison with the distribution of activity in the period prior to 20 ka, the intersection of the three rift zones of the Cumbre Vieja volcano appears to have migrated northwards by at most 2 or 3 km in the period from 20 ka to 7 ka and the NW volcanic rift zone appears to have undergone a marked decline in activity, although without a clear change in its geometry. These subtle structural changes may have been precursors to the more radical changes in the geometry of the volcano from about 7 ka onwards. 3.4. Distribution of historic and sub-historic (post 7 ka) Õolcanic Õents The distribution of the very youngest, morphologically freshest volcanic vents on the Cumbre Vieja volcano is markedly different from those of earlier periods and is shown in Fig. 6. These vents include a number of prehistoric scoria and spatter cones and associated lava flows, characterised by almost entirely unmodified morphologies and at most partial vegetation cover. The young ages of a number of these eruptive units have been confirmed by K–Ar andror C-14 radiometric dating ŽGuillou et al., 1998, except for La Malforada wunpublished C-14 age of 1050 a B.P.; Carracedo et al., 1999a. and Montana Quemada, previously dated using C-14 ŽHernandez Pacheco and Valls, 1982.x, as shown in Table 1: locations of the vents listed in this table are shown in Fig. 6. The majority of vents in S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 Fig. 5. Distribution of volcanic vents during early platform-forming series activity. Sectors A–F discussed in text. 145 146 S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 Fig. 6. Distribution of sub-historic and historic volcanic vents. this youngest group are, however, the products of historic eruptions, in 1585, 1646, 1677, 1712, 1949 and 1971. Some of these eruptions involved multiple vents separated by distances of up to 3 km and it should be borne in mind that, without the historical data, these vents would most probably have been mapped as the products of separate eruptions. Perhaps the most immediately apparent feature of activity in this most recent stage of the history of the Cumbre Vieja is the complete absence of eruptions on the NE rift zone, in strong contrast to the intense activity in that region in the preceding period. Al- though minor intrusive activity at depth cannot be excluded, this implies a very drastic reduction in the rate of dyke-related extension across this rift zone. In contrast, activity on the southern, N–S rift zone follows the same pattern developed in previous periods, with most vents on the axial ridge. Recent and historic activity in the general area of the old NW volcanic rift zone has occurred on two distinct vent alignment trends ŽFig. 7.. The prehistoric vents of La Barquita, Birigoyo and Montana Quemada lie on an approximately N–S trend. La Barquita and Birigoyo show definite vent S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 Table 1 Ages of pre-historic eruptive vents emplaced after the rift-zone reorganisation. See Fig. 6 for locations of vents. See text for further discussion and references Eruptive vent Dating method AgeU Ž2 s errors. Montana Quemada Nambroque II-Malforada Las Indias Montana de Fuego C-14 C-14 K–Ar K–Ar C-14 Birigoyo K–Ar 420"60 a 1050"95 b 3 ka"2 ka 3 ka"2 ka 3255"140 b 3350"50 c 6 ka"3 ka a C-14 age quoted by Hernandez Pacheco and Valls Ž1982.; confirmed by Guanche Žaboriginal. reports recorded by Spanish. b C-14 age determined by Kruger Analytical, USA. c C-14 age determined by CEA-CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France. elongation and rim breaches along a trend bearing 345, or slightly west of north. The eruptive fissure of Montana Quemada is a N–S aligned elongate trough implying a N–S-striking feeder dyke. The development of broadly N–S aligned vents in this northernmost part of the Cumbre Vieja suggests that the N–S rift zone is propagating northwards from the older summit region around Nambroque, thereby bisecting the volcano. The other group of vents occurs on the western flank of the volcano and is represented by vents of the 1585, 1712 and 1949 eruptions. These groups of historic vents are distinctive in a number of ways: Ž1. They form highly elongate fissures or fissure alignments, with relatively little near vent constructional relief in the form of scoria or spatter cones Žalthough the 1585 eruption also involved the emplacement of a number of juvenile phonolite domes, Fig. 9.. The Llanos del Banco vent of the 1949 eruption is a sinuous trough, composed of multiple overlapping vents, some 800 m long ŽFig. 8.; the Jedey vent complex formed in the 1585 eruption is about 1.5 km long and contains a dozen or more overlapping vents ŽFig. 9.; and the 1712 eruption involved seven or more discrete vents along an arcuate but mainly WNW aligned trend extending over a distance of some 3 km ŽFigs. 3 and 6.. Ž2. The overall trend of these fissures or fissure alignments varies from WNW Žin the 1712 eruption.; to slightly north of west Žthe Jedey vent complex.; to slightly south of west Žthe Llanos del Banco vent.. In 147 the case of the 1585 and 1949 vent complexes, these trends are markedly to the south of the WNW to NW alignments of vents in the old NW rift zone. Ž3. Within all three groups of vents, individual vents Žor, in the case of the 1585 eruption complex, three trends within the vent complex as shown in Fig. 9. are arranged en echelon. Elongation directions of these individual vents are always offset to the southwards Žor anticlockwise. with respect to the overall trend of the vent alignment, and adjacent vents are offset dextrally with respect to one another as viewed along the alignment trend ŽFigs. 8 and 9.. In the case of the 1585 eruption complex at Jedey, vents within each trend shown in Fig. 9 were linked by simultaneous events. The phonolite domes and heterogenous hybrid lavas were erupted at the vents Fig. 7. Comparison of vent elongation directions during the pre-7 ka and post-7 ka periods in the NW rift zone, summit region and adjacent areas. 148 S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 It should also be noted that this phenomenon is confined to the western flank of the volcano and is not observed in older vents anywhere on the volcano. Vents of this period at the crest of the volcano ŽFigs. 6 and 7. do not show en echelon segmentation and have a broadly N–S elongation direction, as noted above. These vents were fed by dykes which retained a N–S alignment Žand associated east–west extension and host rock s 3 . throughout their ascent to the surface. 3.5. Analysis of the changes in Õent distribution and orientation in terms of changing stress field components Fig. 8. Geological sketch map of the 1949 Llano del Banco vents, showing inferred feeder dyke orientations. along the central trend whilst those to north and south erupted only basic magmas. This implies the simultaneous existence of three separate but overlapping en echelon feeder dykes beneath this vent complex. Ž4. In contrast to the slight obliquity of many earlier vents to the local slope, best seen in the NE rift zone ŽSections 3.2 and 3.3., the individual vents in these three eruptions closely follow the local slope direction. These features indicate that the feeder dykes to these eruptions show a consistent pattern of rotation and segmentation with depth. This is depicted in Fig. 10. At depth, the feeder dykes to these eruptions appear to strike NW or WNW, along the trend of the old NW rift system. The extension direction Žand implied minimum principal stress s 3 in the host rock. associated with dyke emplacement is broadly NE–SW, or NNE–WSW. As the dykes propagate towards the surface the extension direction and implied s 3 in the rocks through which the dyke tips are moving consistently rotate into a N–S direction, parallel to the local topographic contours, resulting in rotation of the propagation plane and segmentation of the dykes in the sense observed. The variations in the stresses developed in different parts of the volcano during the most recent Žpost-7 ka. period can be understood in terms of the stresses which are predicted to develop within an edifice which is dominated by topographic-gravitational loads; in other words, by the uneven distribution of its own weight. McGuire and Pullen Ž1989. showed that in a ridge like edifice these stresses have a characteristic pattern ŽFig. 11.. Across the crest of the ridge, extensional stresses are developed due to the partially unbuttressed weights of the flanks pulling in opposite directions. Dykes will therefore be emplaced parallel to the ridge crest in this region. In contrast, on the flanks themselves downslope compression is developed and any extension will occur in the direction parallel to the topographic contours. Dykes emplaced into the flanks of the edifice will therefore be aligned downslope. The occurrence of the downslope trending fissures in en echelon arrays ŽFig. 10. can also be understood in terms of this model if the old triple rift geometry has persisted at depth in the form of dyke swarms. Dykes propagating upwards from this region, with its radially symmetric stress field and tangential minimum principal stress directions ŽCarracedo, 1994., into the region immediately beneath the flank of the volcano would experience a rotation of s 3 and therefore a rotation of their preferred alignment into Žrespectively. contour parallel and downslope directions. In contrast, N–S aligned dykes propagating upwards directly beneath the crest of the ridge would experience no change in principal stress directions in the host rock and thus no change in orientation. S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 149 Fig. 9. Geological sketch map of the 1585 Jedey vents showing lava flows and inferred feeder dyke orientations. The area of this map also contains complex sequences of pyroclastic deposits erupted from the numerous vents active during the eruption. This model does, however, raise a problem with respect to the distribution of vents and vent alignment pattern earlier in the history of the volcano. Prior to about 7 ka ago, as discussed above, a triple rift pattern was established at the surface of the volcano and numerous vents were emplaced in directions oblique to the local topography, most notably in the NE rift zone but also in the NW rift zone. This pattern was developed throughout the earlier history of the volcano. The absence of major weathering horizons, distal ash layer packages or erosional unconformities that can be correlated across sectors of the volcano ŽCarracedo et al., 1999b-this volume. indicates that at no earlier time in the history of the volcano has a rift zone abandonment, comparable to the recent abandonment of the NE rift zone, taken place. Although crosscutting ŽNE- and East-trending. sets of vents exist at the top of the cliff forming series in the southern part of Sector E ŽSection 3.2., no sets of en echelon fissures comparable to those 150 S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 Fig. 10. 3-D perspective sketch showing inferred subsurface geometries of recent dykes beneath the N–S crest of the Cumbre Vieja and under the western flank of the volcano. developed in the historic west flank eruptions have been found. The abandonment of the NE rift zone and other events since 7 ka therefore appear to be unique in the history of the Cumbre Vieja. Furthermore, the topography of the volcano has changed little since about 20 ka ago when cliff erosion ended. The magnitudes and orientations of the topographic-gravitational components of the Fig. 11. Sketch showing near-surface stress directions and fissure orientations in a volcanic ridge dominated by topographic-gravitational stresses Žafter McGuire and Pullen, 1989.. S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 stress field within the volcanic edifice can therefore have changed little in the period of rift zone reorganisation. Whilst some influence of changes in the topographic stresses over time upon the changes in vent distribution and orientation patterns cannot be excluded on the basis of this argument, it appears that the primary cause of the reconfiguration of the eruptive vent distribution and orientation pattern must lie in changes in the other components of the overall stress field. The possibility that the reconfiguration may be due to development or disappearance of a significant magma reservoir within the volcanic edifice can be excluded on two grounds. Firstly, as noted above there appears to be no large magma reservoir within the edifice, the bulk of the magmas ascending instead from lithospheric depths of the order of 7 to 11 km ŽHansteen et al., 1998.; and secondly, there is no overall major change in the compositions of the Cumbre Vieja rocks at the time of the reconfiguration. The one group of rocks whose genesis may involve low pressure fractionation, the phonolites, occur from at least 56 ka onwards ŽGuillou et al., 1998.. The triple rift geometry developed through the majority of the history of the volcano is therefore best interpreted in terms of doming above a deep magma body as proposed by Carracedo Ž1994; 1996a,b. for other Canarian volcanoes. The development of the triple rift geometry and the consequent obliquity of the NE and NW rift zones to the local topography is therefore critically dependent of the efficient transmission of doming stresses from the region at depth where they are developed to the upper part of the volcano. In view of the development of en echelon vent geometries on the western flank of the Cumbre Vieja Žand implied subsurface dyke segmentation., our favoured explanation for the changes that have taken place since about 7 ka on this flank of the volcano is that the deep triple-rift stress field has become decoupled from the near surface stress field so that the latter is now dominated by the essentially unchanged topographic-gravitational stresses while the triple rift stress field persists at depth ŽFig. 10; note the distinctly oblique dilation directions of the en echelon fractures relative to the deeper part of the dyke feeding them.. The development of decoupled stress fields in these two adjacent regions implies that a 151 boundary zone has developed between them which is structurally weak and thus inefficient at propagating stresses from one to the other. The extinction of the NE rift zone in contrast to the development of en echelon fissure eruptions on the west flank of the volcano implies an asymmetry in the structure of the volcano from 7 ka onwards. The east flank appears to have become a relatively rigid buttress. The northward propagation of the N–S rift zone can then be understood in terms of synintrusive movement of the western flank of the volcano away from this rigid buttress, the movement being accommodated within the weakened zone. One possible explanation for the extinction of the NE rift zone and the northward propagation of the N–S rift zone is therefore that the weakened region is to be found only under the western flank of the Cumbre Vieja. The location Žparticularly the depth., extent and nature of this weakened region can be constrained by consideration of the pre-Cumbre Vieja substrate upon which the volcano has grown, and the faulting which took place along the crest of the volcano during the 1949 eruption. These are examined in the following two sections. 4. The pre-Cumbre Vieja geology of southern La Palma As noted in Section 1, the Cumbre Vieja is only the youngest component of the island of La Palma. The north of the island is formed by an earlier shield volcano, the Taburiente–Cumbre Nueva edifice ŽCarracedo et al., in press.. In the last stages of growth of this volcano a highly active N–S-trending volcanic rift zone developed on its southern flank. The remnants of the resulting topographic ridge form the present day Cumbre Nueva ridge ŽFig. 1.. The west flank and axis of the rift zone were removed about 560 ka ago by a giant lateral collapse directed to the south and west. Work presently in progress ŽCarracedo et al., 1999b-this volume. indicates that the axis of the Cumbre Nueva rift zone lay several kilometres to the west of the present day ridge: certainly, since the present Cumbre Nueva ridge is composed of east dipping rift flank lavas with only a few dykes, it must be significantly to the east of the 152 S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 position of the old rift zone axis. The altitude of the rift crest is therefore likely to have been 2000 to 2500 m above present sea level. The collapse scar, whose floor is largely at or below present sea level ŽCarracedo et al., 1999a. has since been partly infilled, mostly by the growth of the Cumbre Vieja volcano. This has completely infilled the southern part of the collapse scar and buried the southern end of the Cumbre Nueva escarpment. A major question in the geology of La Palma is therefore that of the southward extents of the Cumbre Nueva rift zone and of the Cumbre Nueva col- lapse structure beneath the Cumbre Vieja. In the absence of subsurface geological data, both rift and collapse structure have previously been assumed, conservatively, to extend only a short distance south of their present outcrop Že.g., Ancochea et al., 1994; Carracedo, 1994.. However, there is a geometrical problem associated with this interpretation which is illustrated in Fig. 12. The level crest of the present day Cumbre Nueva ridge is at an elevation of about 1450 m. In addition, the dips of the lavas at the crest of the ridge are approximately perpendicular to its trend: there is Fig. 12. Map showing predicted southern extents of 1500 m contour on Cumbre Nueva volcano prior to collapse, with variation according to position of Cumbre Nueva rift zone axis indicated. S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 very little if any along ridge component of dip. When allowance for post collapse erosion is made, the ridge crest therefore closely approximates to the position of the 1500 m contour at the time of the collapse. The curvature of the Cumbre Nueva ridge indicates that the original trend of this contour to the south would have been to the SW, but nonetheless it would not have curved back to the NW until it intersected the axis of the Cumbre Nueva rift zone to the west. Depending on the precise position of the Cumbre Neuva rift zone axis, as shown in Fig. 12, Cumbre Nueva rocks would have originally occurred at elevations of 1500 m or more as far south as the region immediately east of the village of Jedey, and perhaps as far as El Remo on the present day coastline. Instead, younger Cumbre Vieja rocks occur at around 1000 m elevation to the east of Jedey, and at sea level at El Remo ŽFig. 3.. A minimum of between 500 m and 1500 m Žvertical thickness. of the Cumbre Nueva sequence has therefore been removed from these areas. This indicates that the Cumbre Nueva collapse extended further south than has previously been supposed. A possible geometry of the crest of the headwall is indicated in Fig. 12. Collapse structures with a similar asymmetric scalloped geometry occur in the adjacent island of El Hierro Žthe El Golfo collapse structure and the San Andres aborted collapse: 153 Carracedo, 1994; Carracedo et al., 1997b; Day et al., 1997.. The presence of a southward extension of the Cumbre Nueva collapse scar beneath some or all of the westward flank of the Cumbre Vieja volcano is also indicated by recent imaging sonar mapping of pre-Cumbre Vieja debris avalanche deposits that extend further south along the SW submarine flank of La Palma than can be accounted for by the previously inferred extent of the Cumbre Nueva collapse ŽUrgeles and Masson, pers. comm... The southern limit of the Cumbre Nueva collapse scar must therefore underlie most if not all of the region in which the en echelon vents have been emplaced ŽSection 3.4; Figs. 6 and 7.. The exact depth of the collapse structure below the surface and the height of the buried collapse scar are not well defined, but for present purposes the critical point is the inferred presence of a west-dipping collapse scar beneath the western flank of the Cumbre Vieja, at or below present sea level ŽFig. 13.. Depending on its position and orientation, this collapse scar may be associated with one or more structurally weak lithological units: remnant debris avalanche deposits; a collapse scar sediment fill sequence; and hyaloclastite units at the base of the filling volcanic sequence. Direct evidence for the presence of post collapse sediments comes from boreholes on the northern side of the Cumbre Nueva collapse ŽCar- Fig. 13. E–W cross-section through Fig. 12 Žalong line A–AU of Figs. 1 and 2. showing inferred position of collapse scar, collapse scar fill sequence and original Cumbre Nueva topography. 154 S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 racedo et al., 1999a.. Beneath the younger ŽBejenado and Cumbre Vieja. lavas, these cross unconsolidated and structurally weak alluvial fan breccias, clay matrix rich debris flow deposits and scree deposits which directly overlie the unconformity representing the floor of the collapse scar. The postulated southern extension of the Cumbre Nueva collapse structure therefore implies that structurally weak lithologies are present beneath the western flank of the Cumbre Vieja edifice. The presence of such units would account for decoupling of deep and shallow stress fields within the western half of the Cumbre Vieja and thus for the geometry of the structural asymmetry of the volcano that has developed since 7 ka ŽSection 3.4.. However, this hypothesis does not account on its own for the development of this asymmetry only in this recent period: this is discussed further below. The presence of pre-Cumbre Vieja topography beneath the volcano, on the scale shown in Figs. 12 and 13, may also account for the unequal development of the three rift zones throughout its history. As noted above Žsee Fig. 11., McGuire and Pullen Ž1989. show that topographic-gravitational stresses favour emplacement of dykes along ridge crests, especially adjacent to steep, unstable cliff faces. An example of this is provided by the dykes across the back of the Valle del Bove on Etna, running parallel to the top of the headwall cliff face ŽMcGuire et al., 1991.. A similar relationship would exist for the buried segment of the Cumbre Nueva collapse scar and dykes feeding vents along the present line of the N–S rift zone of the Cumbre Vieja. In contrast, dykes beneath the NW rift zone would run obliquely across the WSW dipping floor of the Cumbre Nueva collapse scar, while those beneath the NE rift zone would run obliquely across the intact eastern slopes of the older volcano. In order to propagate to the surface they would therefore have to overcome a component of the downslope compressive stress indicated in Fig. 11. The overall effect of these various topographicgravitational stresses would therefore be to promote activity on the N–S rift and partially suppress it on the other two, throughout the history of the volcano. Further suppression of the topographic expression of the NW rift zone in particular can be attributed to the development and infilling of a sediment and lava trap between it and the Cumbre Nueva scarp to the east and the older Bejenado volcano to the north ŽSector F of Section 3.2.. 5. The 1949 fault scarp: first surface rupture associated with instability of the western flank of the Cumbre Vieja? The 1949 eruption of the Cumbre Vieja volcano, lasting from 24th June 1949 to 30th July 1949, involved two eruption sites: a N–S cluster of vents in the summit region of the volcano on the N–S rift system and, as discussed in Section 3.4, an en echelon vent system on the western flank of the volcano. Amongst the syneruptive phenomena ŽBonelli Rubio, 1950. were locally intense seismicity and the development of surface ruptures, principally in the period 1str2nd July 1949, along a west-facing normal fault system in the region between the two eruption centres. As discussed in Section 1, Carracedo Ž1994; 1996a; b. proposed that these faults might represent an incipient stage of instability of the west flank of the Cumbre Vieja, and a precursor to a flank collapse in the future. They may also provide an explanation of the structural reconfiguration of the volcano during the Holocene. In view of the hazard implications of this, the faults were mapped in detail by the first author with the aims of determining: 1. their age relationships with respect to other events in the eruption Žin conjunction with a reexamination of eyewitness accounts.; 2. their surface geometry including amounts and directions of displacements, and thus inferring their subsurface geometry; 3. whether or not they were associated with localised fumarolic activity that might indicate the presence of shallow intrusions along their length; 4. whether the major surface ruptures identified by Bonelli Rubio were in fact only a component of a broader and more distributed deformation field with deformation taking place on many smaller and less obvious structures. A map of the fault system showing displacements measured on the mapped fault strands is shown in Fig. 14; the chronology of the eruption based on the accounts of Bonelli Rubio and others is summarised in Table 2. It should be noted that the fault system S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 extends much further north than was thought — Bonelli Rubio considered that the northern limit was at the northern end of the Llanos del Agua — and that the displacements along the fault have not previously been measured. 155 5.1. Field obserÕations of the 1949 fault system Although vegetation growth and reworking of 1949 deposits have obscured the fault system in places, the gaping fissures with vertical offsets of the Fig. 14. Map of the 1949 fault system and eruption sites. S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 156 Table 2 Chronology of 1949 eruption, primarily based on Bonelli Rubio Ž1950., Martin San Gil Ž1960. and Monge Montuno Ž1981.; see text for discussion of these and other accounts, which are in part contradictory Date Eruptive activity Seismic activity 22nd February – 25th March – 21st June 22nd–23rd June 24th June – – Start of eruptive activity at Duraznero Žcontinuing at lesser intensity to 6th July.. Activity of phreatomagmatic, vulcanian to strombolian type Žactivity at Duraznero continuing at moderate level. ŽEarliest date of seismicity recorded in Martin San Gil Ž1960.; Bonelli Rubio does not mention any activity before 21st June. Strong earthquakes in south of La Palma, with damage to lighthouse. Two strong earthquakes; many smaller felt earthquakes Lesser seismic activity Moderate seismicity, continuing to 6th July 1st, 2nd July 6th July 7th July 8th July Strong vulcanian explosion at southernmost vent of Duraznero, followed by diminution of activity Žnote: other accounts have this diminution in activity not occurring until 8th July. – Opening of Llano del Banco fissure and commencement of eruption of lava at high rate Žcontinuing until 26th July. 9th July–11th July 12th July Opening of Hoyo Negro vents; Duraznero vents remaining inactive. Explosive Žmainly vulcanian. activity continuing at Hoyo Negro until 22nd July 13th–14th July 21st–23rd July 30th July End of explosive activity at Hoyo Negro Ž22nd July. Brief resumption of eruptive activity at Hoyo Negro; opening of Duraznero fissure north of Duraznero crater and short but intense fire-fountain eruption walls observed and photographed by Bonelli Rubio on and after July 6th 1949 ŽBonelli Rubio, 1950. are still recognisable along much of the length of the fault system. The walls, especially where formed by loose scoria rather than more cohesive spatter or rubbly lava, have partially collapsed and filled the fissure in many places. However, a narrow trough up Two very strong earthquakes, felt throughout island Žstrongest earthquakes of entire eruption. Seismicity ceased temporarily after strong explosion Strongly felt seismicity Strong felt seismicity accompanying opening of vent Žnote: other accounts have this vent opening occurring near-aseismically. Weakly felt seismicity Vent opening accompanied by two strong earthquakes Frequent earthquakes; last on 14th accompanied by dilation of fissure between Duraznero and Hoyo Negro Intermittent, weak to moderate seismicity Weak earthquakes at start of Duraznero fissure eruption to some metres deep bounded by vertical walls is preserved in places ŽFig. 15a,b.. A different geometry occurs where the fault system cuts fine grained phreatomagmatic ashes and alluvially reworked ashes from the prehistoric explosion craters of Crater El Fraile and Llanos del Agua III, Žto the east and west of the Duraznero fissure and Hoyo Negro, respec- Fig. 15. Field photographs of the 1949 fault system. ŽA. View of the fault scarp Žca. 2 m high. at the northern end of the fault system, as seen from the west. ŽB. Gaping fissure at the extreme southern end of the fault system, viewed down the length of the fault from the north. Note Hoyo Negro lithic ash and 30th July lapilli deposits on hangingwall Žwestern. side of fault, and absence of these deposits on the degraded footwall side. One metre length of tape for scale. ŽC. 1949 Fault-related fissures along western side of Llanos del Agua, cutting yellow phreatomagmatic ash of prehistoric Crater El Fraile eruption. Fissures filled with grey Hoyo Negro lithic ash from early phase of Hoyo Negro eruption and covered by undisturbed Hoyo Negro deposits. S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 157 158 S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 tively.. In these areas, irregularly curved faults and fissures filled with Hoyo Negro ash are exposed where the deposits are cut by post-1949 erosional gullies ŽFig. 15c. and the cliffs of the Hoyo Negro crater. The generally good, and locally excellent, preservation and exposure of the fault system allows determination of displacements along its length with an estimated accuracy of "20% above a detection limit that in the erosional gullies and also in the actively eroding cliffs of larger, pre-1949 barrancos can be as little as a few centimetres but in the wooded areas in the northern part of the fault system is more probably as much as 0.5 m. Although these limitations of the exposure should be borne in mind it nevertheless appears that the 1949 fault system is a remarkably simple west facing normal fault system, striking 165 overall Žparallel to the trend of the recent northward extension of the N–S rift system through Birigoyo and La Barquita; see Figs. 6 and 7.. Vertical displacements reach a maximum of 4 m in the centre and south of the fault system. Where horizontal displacements can be estimated they are typically half or less of the vertical displacement, suggesting that the gaping fissures at the surface are linked to a steeply dipping Žat 608 or more. fault at greater depth. The displacements diminish gradually towards the northern end of the fault but it terminates abruptly at its southern end. Here the displacement may be transferred along the northern wall of the partially filled Crater El Fraile explosion crater: either into a loose breccia fill in this crater comparable to that which is forming at present in the smaller but comparable Hoyo Negro crater or, through a transfer fault hidden beneath recent screes, into a structure later occupied by the eruptive fissure system of the Duraznero vents ŽFig. 14.. A number of bends and jogs exist along the fault system, which range in size from less than a metre to hundreds of metres in scale. Measurement of the offset in the horizontal plane of the corners of the smaller bends indicate that movement was essentially dip-slip, without any significant strike-slip component of movement. The larger bends occur towards the southern end of the fault system, most notably across the northern end of the Llanos del Agua, a N–S elongate trough formed at least in part by phreatic or phreatomagmatic explosions. The only significant splays and antithetic faults along the fault system are developed in the same area ŽFigs. 14 and 15c., perhaps as a result of local deformation along the walls of the trough. The southward extension of these N–S-trending antithetic faults along the Llanos del Agua cannot be determined from present day evidence because of their small displacement and burial by Hoyo Negro deposits. However, Bonelli Rubio’s contemporary photographs indicate that they died out to the south over some tens of metres only. The main fault can be traced continuously from Llanos del Agua up the eastern wall of the Llanos del Agua trough and across the northern side of Hoyo Negro to its southern termination. Its displacement in this southern section remains more or less constant both in displacement and amount. This is despite the fact that it passes across the northern end of a local, purely extensional fracture system, well exposed in the southern wall of Hoyo Negro, which is developed in the vicinity of the Duraznero eruptive fissure system. Well developed N–S-trending dilational fissures were observed around the future site of Hoyo Negro by Bonelli Rubio on 6th July 1949 but he clearly distinguished them from the ‘‘north west’’-trending faults: the further development of these dilational fissures later in the eruption is discussed below. The northern end of the fault system is marked by the development of a number of small parallel faults and fractures, with maximum displacements of the order of 0.5 m. The development of more distributed deformation is typical of fault tip lines ŽWalsh and Watterson, 1988.. The surface trace of the fault dies out about 700 m SE of the eastern end of the Llano del Banco en echelon eruptive fissure on the flank of the volcano. Detailed examination of the areas on either side of the fault trace were carried out in a search for other faults either parallel, oblique or perpendicular to the main fault trend. These investigations were concentrated in erosional gullies Žlocal name: barrancos. where exposures up to hundreds of metres length along the sides of the watercourses and several metres to tens of metres high are to be found. In the gullies at the north end of the Llanos del Agua, in Barranco de Los Llanos del Agua to the west and in Barranco de Magdalena ŽFig. 14. these exposures are of well bedded lapilli and scoria units and very well S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 bedded and laminated phreatic and phreatomagmatic ash units. Faults and fractures with displacements of tens of centimetres would be easily observed in the former, whilst the latter would even display faults with centimetric displacements, but with one exception no such faults were observed. The only fault found cuts only the oldest rocks of the cliff-forming sequence in this area: it appears to be associated with the collapse of a phonolite dome and the formation of the depression of Llanos de Sima ŽFig. 3.. Similarly well bedded units occur at less extensive outcrops in many places in the mapped area and also do not show evidence for the development of small scale fractures or faults. The majority of the exposures in the barrancos run downslope ŽE–W. but sinuosity in these and especially in the smaller gullies provides some N–S-trending exposures in addition to scattered flat or shallowly inclined bedrock exposures in the floors of these ephemeral watercourses. It can also be anticipated that significant distributed small scale fracturing or faulting in the area of Fig. 14 would be located whatever its orientation, but especially if it was on a similar trend to the main fault system. In particular, there are no east-facing normal faults which would, in conjunction with the west-facing faults, form an extensional graben structure. The fault system therefore appears to be a truly asymmetric structure, with a substantial net downthrow to the west. The lack of deformation in younger rocks of the cliff-forming series and the whole of the platform forming series in the area covered by Fig. 14 implies not only that the mapped 1949 faults are the only laterally extensive surface rupturing faults to have formed in 1949, they are also the first such faults to have formed in this, the summit region of the Cumbre Vieja, in certainly the past several thousand years and probably in the last few tens of thousands of years. Despite the proximity of the 1949 fault system, particularly at its southern end, to an eruptive fissure system active close to the time of its formation, there is no evidence for a concentration of fumarolic activity along it. Indeed, there is no evidence for contemporaneous fumarolic activity along the faults at all, even in the fine grained palagonitic ash deposits which are cut by the faults in Llanos del Agua. Furthermore, Bonelli Rubio did not record any evi- 159 dence for fumarolic activity or other evidence for localised gas emission when he examined the faults in Llanos del Agua on 6th July 1949 and there are no visible emissions in any of the published photographs, in contrast to the intense activity which occurred around Hoyo Negro and Duraznero. In contrast, Martin San Gil Ž1960. records low temperature or cold emissions of water vapour and CO 2 in the early phases of the eruption from many sites around Duraznero, at distances of more than a kilometre from the Duraznero vent. These may correspond to the N–S-trending dilational fracture system noted by Bonelli Rubio Ž1950.. The west facing normal fault system seems to have been isolated from the gas venting sites. The age relationships of the faults to the eruptive units of the 1949 eruption, in particular to the laterally extensive Hoyo Negro ash and lithic breccia deposits formed in phreatic and phreatomagmatic explosions at Hoyo Negro from 12th July 1949 onwards Žsee Table 2., confirm Bonelli Rubio’s inference ŽBonelli Rubio, 1950. that the faults formed on 1st andror 2nd July 1949 Žsee below. and certainly before 6th July when the surface ruptures were observed and photographed in the field. The very fresh appearance of the surface fissuring in the photographs together with the fact that they had not previously been observed suggests that they had formed very shortly before. The complete lack of faulting or fracturing of the Hoyo Negro ash and lithic breccia deposits, even where they drape the fault scarps, imply that there was no movement on the faults after 12th July, even during the activity at Hoyo Negro in subsequent days and the later reopening of and brief eruption from the adjacent Duraznero fissure system at the end of the eruption ŽTable 2; Fig. 14.. 5.2. Seismicity during the 1949 eruption and the timing of seismicity, fault rupture formation and eruptiÕe episodes There were no seismometers operating within the Canary Islands during the 1949 eruption and thus no instrumental data regarding the seismic activity associated with the eruption exists. However, many earthquakes were felt in the island during the eruption and the timing of these events provides some 160 S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 data relevant to the time of the formation of the 1949 surface fault rupture. The periods of most intense activity are indicated in Table 2. Bonelli Rubio Ž1950., Romero Ortiz Ž1951., Martin San Gil Ž1960. and Monge Montuno Ž1981. provide varying and partly contradictory accounts of the regions over which seismicity was felt and present felt seismic intensity maps ŽMercalli maps. constructed using the procedures of the time. These procedures differed markedly from those in use at the present day ŽVinciguerra, pers. comm... Not too much reliance can be placed upon these maps, particularly because much of the affected region was at most lightly populated in 1949 and therefore large parts of the maps are based on very sparse data, but also because the maps produced by different authors are also contradictory. The various authors do, however, agree on two points: firstly, that the seismicity was markedly more intense in the Cumbre Vieja than in the rest of the island and, secondly, that no seismic activity was felt on adjacent islands of the archipelago. These points indicate that the sources of the earthquakes were relatively shallow and most probably located within the upper part of the volcanic edifice. For comparison, earthquakes which are felt only locally but are also recorded instrumentally at Etna ŽLo Giudice and Rasa, ` 1992. have instrumentally determined foci at depths of at most 2 km. Bonelli Rubio Ž1950. and Monge Montuno Ž1981. both argue that most events occurred beneath the western flank of the volcano, especially in the period from 1st to 2nd July 1949 discussed below; Romero Ortiz Ž1951. and Martin San Gil Ž1960. centre the activity on the N–S rift zone. The scarcity of reliable data may make it difficult to distinguish between these alternatives. For present purposes, however, some important conclusions can be derived from the temporal data presented in Table 2. The most intense seismicity was felt in the few days Ž23rd–26th June. leading up to the start of the eruption; on 1st and 2nd July Žthe most intense seismicity of all, felt for a considerable period, causing most damage and including individual earthquakes felt over most if not all of the island.; on 7th and 8th July Žcoinciding with the opening of the Llano del Banco fissure vents on the western flank.; and on 12th–14th July Žcoinciding with the explosive activity at Hoyo Negro.. It will be noted that with the exception of the 1st–2nd July activity all of these episodes either lead up to or accompany discrete eruptive episodes. Thus, while these other episodes of intense seismic activity can plausibly be related to the propagation of dykes toward the surface leading to the eruptions concerned, the more intense 1st–2nd July seismicity cannot. This point and the definite constraint that the surface ruptures had formed before 6th July 1949 led Bonelli Rubio to conclude that the most likely date for the movement to have occurred on the faults was in the period of intense seismicity from 1st to 2nd July, four days before the temporary cessation of activity at Duraznero and six days before the opening of the Llano del Banco fissure vents. It follows that the formation of the faults and the 1st–2nd July seismicity can either be related to emplacement of an intrusion beneath the surface which did not lead immediately to an eruption, or to faulting within the edifice related to movement of the western flank of the volcano rather than to an intrusion episode. 5.3. Cause of the 1949 faulting and seismicity: shallow intrusion or flank faulting? It is convenient to deal with the subsurface intrusion hypothesis first, since in the context of the structural evolution of the Cumbre Vieja and the possible hazard of a future lateral collapse this interpretation might be termed a ‘‘null hypothesis’’. The most likely form that such an intrusion would take, since the faults lie between the Duraznero and Llano del Banco vents of the 1949 eruption, is that of a dyke propagating between the two, most probably from beneath Duraznero towards the Llano del Banco since the former was active from 26th June to 6th July whilst the latter did not appear until 8th July. Since the 1949 faults are unique in the Cumbre Vieja, and also because no intrusion event has been monitored seismically or geodetically in the Canary Islands, it is necessary to compare the 1949 faulting and seismicity with dyke intrusion events on other volcanoes. Those which are particularly relevant are the 1983, 1985, 1989 and 1991 rifting events within the SSE rift zone of Etna ŽMcGuire et al., 1991; McGuire et al., 1996. and the frequent activity of the rift zones of Kilauea ŽDecker, 1987; Holcomb, 1987.. In the case of the Etna rifting events the characteris- S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 tic structure, invariably developed, is a graben with approximately equal displacements on inward facing normal faults. This is despite the highly asymmetric loads imposed on this part of Etna by the presence of the Valle del Bove to the east. On Kilauea, particularly on the east rift zone, the characteristic fault structures above shallow, laterally propagating dykes are simple dilational fissures and symmetrical grabens. The asymmetric 1949 surface ruptures are therefore geometrically distinct from the structures developed above propagating dykes or in other rift faulting events on these volcanoes. If a dyke were present beneath the 1949 fault systems in the Cumbre Vieja, linking the two groups of vents of the eruption, it would be expected that the fault system would be linked, both in its geometry and kinematics, to these vent systems. In neither aspect is this the case. At the northern end of the fault system, the presence of a 165-trending magma filled and therefore frictionless fracture would be expected to result in significant strike-slip displacement on the fault system during the dilation of the E–W-trending en echelon fractures which fed the Llano del Banco eruptive activity. This is not observed. Furthermore, the broadly N–S extension on the eruptive fissure system ŽFig. 8. is geometrically incompatible with the westward Ždip-slip. displacement on the fault system. The sense of en echelon offset of the fissures is actually the reverse of that which would be expected if there were a dextral offset across them to accommodate the movement on the fault system. At the southern end the fault, if mechanically linked via a dyke at depth to the N–S-trending dilational fractures which extend northwards from the Duraznero fissure through Hoyo Negro ŽFig. 14., would be expected to show a gradient in displacement across this fracture zone or even a reversal of sense of displacement. This is also not observed. Furthermore, a significant component of the displacement on the Duraznero–Hoyo Negro dilational fissure system is likely to have taken place during opening of the eruptive fissure along the west side of Crater El Fraile on 30th July 1949: in particular the main ‘‘dry’’ fissure to the north of this eruptive fissure is not visible in photographs of its present site taken on 28th July 1949 ŽMartin San Gil, 1960.. If the fault system were directly linked to these late-di- 161 lating fissures it would be expected to record displacements after emplacement of the Hoyo Negro ash and lithic breccia deposits, whereas in fact the faults were not active after July 12th, the start of the Hoyo Negro eruption ŽSection 5.1, above.. The presence of a dyke at shallow depths, a few hundred metres or less, would result in surface manifestations of the proximity of magma including fumarolic activity or alteration, and explosion and collapse pit craters. Decker Ž1987. notes the transient development of fumaroles above propagating near surface dykes in the East rift zone of Kilauea. None of these features are or were observed along the 1949 fault system, either today or at the time of the eruption. If on the other hand the dyke was deeper, at a depth of more than about five hundred metres, a further problem arises. As noted in Section 5.1, the proportion of vertical to horizontal displacement along the vertical walled gaping surface fissures implies a fault dip at depth of about 608. The predicted position of an underlying dyke, if it is a relatively deep structure, would therefore lie to the west of the fault trace by a distance of some hundreds of metres and thus largely beneath the western flank of the volcano. This is mechanically implausible as the dyke would then be perpendicular to the downslope compressional forces indicated in Fig. 11 Žsee discussion in Section 3.4., and which appear to control the orientations of the Llano del Banco and other west flank fissures. In conclusion, the 1949 fault system is unlike other fault systems developed above shallow subsurface dykes; shows no geometric or kinematic evidence of direct mechanical linkage to the various dilational fissures developed during the 1949 eruption as would be predicted by the shallow subsurface dyke model; shows no evidence for the presence of a dyke very close to the surface; and presents geometrical and mechanical problems if the postulated dyke is present at greater depth. Finally, any model which interprets the 1949 fault system as the product of near surface intrusion emplacement must also explain why similar faulting has NOT occurred during the many previous eruptions in the summit region of the Cumbre Vieja. It should, however, be noted that this discussion of a shallow connecting dyke does not exclude the deeper subsurface linkage between the ridge crest and flank eruption sites of the 1949 162 S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 Fig. 16. Three possible geometries of inferred sub-surface flank deformation during the 1949 eruption. See text for discussion. S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 eruption that is implied by the alternation in eruptive activity between the two sites ŽTable 2.. However, these points merely require that the two vent systems be linked at the depth of the magma reservoir feeding the eruption w7–11 km, as discussed above ŽSections 3.1 and 3.5.x. Whilst in the absence of borehole or other direct subsurface data the presence of a dyke at depth beneath the 1949 fault system cannot be definitively excluded, it would appear that an alternative explanation for the 1949 faulting must be sought. This alternative hypothesis, as noted at the beginning of this section, is that the 1949 fault system results from incipient instability of the western flank of the Cumbre Vieja volcano, triggered by the eruption Žthrough mechanisms discussed by Elsworth and Day, 1999, and references therein.. All the available data, especially the westward dip of the fault plane inferred above and the consistent displacement of the hangingwall Žwestern. side down and to the west, are at least consistent with this hypothesis. However, more data on the subsurface geometry of the structure are required to confirm it. The observations of felt seismicity described above indicate very shallow sources: there is no evidence that the fault represents the surface expression of a steeply dipping structure extending to depth. Furthermore, if a deep steeply dipping structure were present it would be expected to interact with the persistent magma reservoirs inferred by Kluegel et al. Ž1997.; Kleugel Ž1998. and Hansteen et al. Ž1998.. By analogy with Kilauea, ŽSection 2; Decker, 1987; Clague and Denlinger, 1994. persistent activity on such a structure during intereruptive periods would be expected but is not observed ŽMoss et al., 1999-this volume.. The Mercalli intensity maps of Bonelli Rubio Ž1950. and Monge Montuno Ž1981., if accepted, strongly imply the presence beneath the western flank of the volcano of abundant near surface faults or a through going fault structure. Furthermore, the absence of surface fault ruptures on the western flank implies that these structures, if present, form a shallowly-dipping detachment fault or deformation zone sub-parallel to the surface. The geometry of this shallowly dipping zone is not well constrained. Three possible alternatives are shown in Fig. 16. In these models, the steep normal fault represented by the surface rupture at the crest of the 163 Cumbre Vieja might represent the initial stages of development of a headwall fault linked to the shallow detachment structure. Future geodetic measurements of slow intereruptive deformation if this exists ŽMoss et al., 1999-this volume. or careful and accurate monitoring of shallow seismicity and ground deformation during future eruptions may be required to directly constrain the geometry and kinematics of any deformation of the west flank of the volcano. The geometries shown in Fig. 16 do, however, provide the basis for explanations of the structural development of the Cumbre Vieja, as developed in the following section. 6. Towards an overall model for the structural evolution of the Cumbre Vieja volcano during the past 125 ka? The various lines of evidence discussed in this paper lead to a partial reconstruction of the structural development of the Cumbre Vieja volcano which can be summarised as follows: Ž1. The volcano developed on a complex substrate with considerable topography. This consisted of an elongate N–S topographic ridge formed by collapse to the west of one flank of a well developed volcanic rift zone. The eastern flank was thus intact while the western side of the ridge was formed by the steep headwall of a collapse scar. Ž2. The western flank of the Cumbre Vieja volcano has built up upon the collapse scar and may therefore overlie a relatively weak collapse scar fill sequence. This western flank of the volcano may therefore have been inherently less stable throughout its history but until the most recent stages of that history there has been no evidence of actual instability. Ž3. During most of its history the volcano has been characterised by a triple or ‘‘Mercedes Star’’ volcanic rift system with South, NE and NW volcanic rifts and underlying dyke swarms. At no stage in the history of the volcano has a central crater or feeder complex developed. However, perhaps as a result of the topographic-gravitational stresses set up by the preexisting topography, the South rift zone has always been the most active structure, with the greatest volume of erupted products. Nevertheless, 164 S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 the triple rift geometry remained stable for a period of at least 100 ka and through the accumulation of well in excess of 700 m of lavas and the erosion of coastal cliffs up to 700 m high. Ž4. During the latter stages of development of this unequal triple rift system, from about 20 ka ago, the intersection of the active rift systems may have migrated slowly to the north over a distance of a few kilometres. In the same period, whilst the NE rift zone may have experienced its most intense activity, the NW rift zone began to decline. These developments may have been precursory to the subsequent more rapid structural evolution of the volcano. Ž5. The more recent evolution of the volcano has occurred without major changes in the topography of the volcano: post-20 ka rocks are at most a hundred metres or so thick and form a discontinuous veneer on the older rocks, whilst coastal cliff erosion largely ceased with the post glacial rise in sea level and the formation of coastal lava platforms. Ž6. Beginning at about 7 ka ago, the volcano underwent a structural reorganisation with the following sequence of events: activity on the NE rift zone ceased altogether; the South rift zone propagated northwards, bisecting the volcano; and Žperhaps only in the past 500 years. flank eruptions from en echelon, E–W trending fissures occurred on the west flank of the volcano in the region occupied by the old NW rift zone. The geometry of these en echelon fissure sets indicates that they are fed by dykes that are broadly NW-trending, aligned along the old NW rift zone trend, at depth but which rotate and segment as the propagate towards the surface. The near surface geometry of these dykes is controlled by topographic-gravitational stresses. The overall rift zone reorganisation has involved a decoupling of the near surface stress field from the deeper stress field under the western flank of the volcano, implying development of a weak or compliant layer under that flank. In the same period, the eastern side of the volcano has acted as a Žrelatively. rigid buttress. Ž7. The most recent eruption near the summit of the volcano and involving an en echelon fissure eruption on the flank of the volcano, that of 1949, was also accompanied by development of a west facing normal fault system along the summit ridge of the volcano. The geometry and kinematics of this fault system are inconsistent with the hypothesis that it represents a structure developed above a near surface dyke. Available data on the subsurface geometry of the fault system indicates seaward movement and incipient instability of the western flank of the volcano. The fault may link into a shallow, possibly seaward dipping detachment zone: if it exists this zone may consist of many small faults or a larger through going structure. The fact that such faulting has not occurred earlier in the history of the volcano implies that it is linked to the most recent stages of the structural evolution of the volcano. The structural evolution of the Cumbre Vieja volcano over the past 20 ka or so therefore points to a progressive destabilisation of the western flank of the volcano. The rapidity of the rift reorganisation some 7 ka ago and the subsequent events, in comparison to the possible very slow migration of the rift zone intersection in the preceding period suggests that the process may be accelerating. A similar acceleration in the rate of structural reconfiguration may be evident in the recent history of the Cha das Caldeiras volcano, Fogo ŽDay et al., 1999-this volume.. The stability of the Cumbre Vieja volcano through the period of growth prior to 20 ka raises a problem: if weak lithologies have been present beneath the western flank of the volcano since the early stages of its growth, why has it not shown some degree of instability and decoupling of deep and shallow stress fields earlier in its history? One possible answer to this may lie in the fact that the stability of volcanoes depends upon the pore fluid pressure distribution within them ŽElsworth and Day, 1999-this volume, and references therein.. A rise in the water table within the flank of a volcanic edifice will tend to destabilise it, especially during eruptions due to mechanical and thermal pore fluid pressure increases. Between 20 ka the water table in the Cumbre Vieja may have risen due to one or both of two effects: the postglacial rise in sea level and, perhaps more significantly, by a change in the local climate. Evidence for Quaternary climate change in La Palma will be considered elsewhere. The alternative but not incompatible explanation is that volcano may have been very slightly unstable through much of its history but that with the growth and continued very slow deformation of the volcano S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 it may have passed a critical point between 20 ka and 7 ka ago. This critical point would occur when deformation in the relatively weak zone under the west flank of the volcano ŽFig. 16. increased to the point at which strain weakening set in, whether due to comminution and a reduction in cohesive strength or to a reduction in permeability and thus increased sensitivity to pore fluid pressure increases ŽDay, 1996.. This model implies that a deformation zone or fault system has been developing under the west flank of the Cumbre Vieja, perhaps close to the floor of the Cumbre Nueva collapse scar, for at least the past 7 ka. On this view, it would now extend at least through the region within which the en echelon flank fissure eruptions have taken place, and perhaps as far north as the northward propagating tip of the N–S rift zone. The first appearance of surface faulting in the 1949 eruption, and only in a small section of the volcano, is not incompatible with this, for the nucleation of faults in the subsurface and their subsequent progressive growth towards the surface is well documented for tectonic faults Žsee Scholz, 1990 and Yeats et al., 1997 for recent reviews; also Walsh and Watterson, 1988.. In general, a fault will only rupture the surface when greater movement has already taken place on it at depth; and the trace length of the first surface rupture may only be a small fraction of its total dimensions. An implication of a strain weakening model of this type is that further deformation during future eruptions in the summit region or even in intereruptive periods will cause the west flank of the Cumbre Vieja to weaken further, causing an acceleration in the deformation rate and a greater susceptibility to large scale collapse. It should be noted that less than 10 eruptions have taken place in the summit region of the Cumbre Vieja since the onset of the radical rift zone reorganisation and therefore that the probability of emergence of the fault system as a surface fault rupture in any one of these eruptions is therefore quite high, even if assumed to be random. If, as argued here, the fault system has grown progressively though time, the emergence of the fault system only as recently as 1949 can be seen as a consequence of the evolution of the volcano rather than as an improbable event. The Cumbre Vieja volcano does not seem, however, to be in an extremely unstable state at present. 165 The eruption of 1971, at the extreme southern end of the island and thus at a relatively low elevation and perhaps to the south of the region of the Cumbre Nueva collapse scar, does not seem to have caused further slip on the surface fault ruptures. Geodetic monitoring in progress since 1994 ŽMoss et al., 1999-this volume. has not as yet detected significant movement across the 1949 fault system and of the west flank of the volcano more generally. The implication of these constraints upon a strain weakening model is that it would predict that future seaward movement on the 1949 fault system or elsewhere in the west flank of the volcano is only likely to occur, in the short term at least, during or immediately after ŽElsworth and Day, 1999-this volume. eruptions in the northern part of the Cumbre Vieja, in the general region of the 1949 eruption vents. In conclusion, it should be further emphasised that there is much that remains unknown about the structure and stability of the western flank of the Cumbre Vieja, although as shown here the structural evolution of the volcano as a whole can be understood in terms of a weakening and destabilisation of this flank through the past 20 ka. It is perhaps arguable that this hypothesis will not be fully tested until a future eruption at or near the summit of the volcano is adequately monitored. Such monitoring will require a seismic network capable of accurately locating earthquake foci and determining earthquake focal mechanisms and a geodetic network covering the whole of the western flank and summit region of the volcano. Acknowledgements Fieldwork by the authors was financed by grants from the Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas of Spain, the European Union, and NATO. Production of the geological map of the Cumbre Vieja upon which Fig. 3 is based was financed by the Canarian Government. Kathryn Sharp provided invaluable assistance and advice in the drafting of this map. We gratefully acknowledge discussions with Jane Moss, Bill McGuire, Derek Elsworth, George Walker, Robin Holcomb and Francisco Perez Torrado, and especially advice on the problems of interpreting Mercalli Intensity maps from Sergio 166 S.J. Day et al.r Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 94 (1999) 135–167 Vinciguerra. We also greatly appreciate discussions with participants in the 1997 La Palma workshop, especially Andreas Kleugel, Thor Hansteen and Hubert Staudigel. Reviews by Geoff Wadge and Michel Semet greatly improved the paper. References Afonso, A., 1974. Geological sketch and historic volcanoes in La Palma, Canary Islands. Estudios Geologicos, Teneguia Volume, 7–13. 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