Market
Transcription
Market
G4S plc Capital Markets Day 25 May 2011 1 Legal Disclaimer Certain statements in this document are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements speak only as at the date of this document. These statements concern, or may affect, future matters and include matters that are not facts. Such statements are based on current expectations and beliefs and, by their nature, are subject to a number of known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and outcomes to differ materially from any expected future results or performance expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. The information and opinions expressed in this document are subject to change without notice and neither the Company nor any other person assumes any responsibility or obligation to update publicly or review any of the forward-looking statements contained within this document, regardless of whether those statements are affected as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. 2 Nick Buckles Group CEO 3 Agenda Session One Presentation Title Presenter Alf Duch-Pedersen Chairman Introduction Nick Buckles Group CEO Market overview Strategy implementation Graham Levinsohn Group Strategy and Development Director Q&A All David Taylor-Smith Regional CEO, UK & Africa UK & Africa Willem van de Ven Regional CEO, Europe Europe Q&A All Coffee Break 4 Agenda Session Two Presentation Title Presenter Dan Ryan Regional CEO, Asia Middle East Asia Middle East Grahame Gibson Regional CEO, Americas Americas Q&A All Trevor Dighton Group CFO Financials Nick Buckles Group CEO Closing Remarks Q&A All Lunch 5 Alf Duch-Pedersen Chairman 6 G4S Overview Since 2004 merger Grown from 385,000 employees to 625,000 today Revenues more than doubled to £7.4 billion in 2010 PBITA growth of 21% per annum Retained and extended multi-service strategy Acquired extensive capabilities in key sectors Generated excellent shareholder returns Continued to invest in high quality management to deliver the strategy Strategy will drive continued growth and development 7 Diversified Geographic Footprint 2010 Turnover by country (%) UK Canada Saudi Arabia Romania US Belgium Ireland Austria Australia Hungary Iraq UAE Colombia Malaysia Greece Hong Kong Finland Chile Afghanistan Luxemburg Netherlands India South Africa Denmark NOTE Other includes 80+ countries Sweden Norway Israel Other 8 Diversified Geographic Footprint 2010 PBITA by country (%) UK South Africa Israel Greece US Saudi Arabia Denmark Norway Netherlands Belgium Colombia Afghanistan India UAE Australia Malaysia Romania Luxemburg Iraq Hungary Canada Chile Austria Qatar Estonia Finland NOTE Other includes 80+ countries Hong Kong Other 9 Adjusted EPS and Dividend 2005 - 2010 Pence 25 10 21.6 9 20.2 20 8 7.9 16.7 EPS 7 7.18 15 11.2 12.1 13.3 6 6.43 EPS CAGR + 14.0% 5 4.96 10 DPS CAGR + 17.4% 4 4.21 3 3.54 5 2 1 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 10 TSR Development G4S versus FTSE 100 total shareholder return comparison (Jan-04 – May-11) G4S has significantly outperformed the FTSE100 in terms of shareholder returns 400 258% 350 TSR (rebased to 100) 300 250 200 74% 150 100 50 0 Jan-04 Jan-05 Feb-06 Mar-07 G4S Mar-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 May-11 FTSE100 Source: Datastream (as at 19 May 2011) 11 Group Executive Structure Nick Buckles Group CEO Grahame Gibson Regional CEO - Americas Trevor Dighton Group CFO David Taylor-Smith Regional CEO - UK & Africa Irene Cowden Group HR Director Willem van de Ven Regional CEO - Europe Soren Lundsberg-Nielsen Group General Counsel Dan Ryan Regional CEO – Asia, Middle East Debbie McGrath Group Communications Director Ken Niven Divisional CEO - Cash Solutions Graham Levinsohn Group Strategy & Development Director 12 Nick Buckles CEO 1 Contents Global security market Economic sensitivities G4S Values Key business objectives Acquisitions Summary 2 Global Security Market 3 Global Market Size and Growth Rates Strong structural growth B-B & B-G Markets Security market revenue by region (US$ bn) 250 Estimated annual growth 2009 to 2014 by region GDP Growth 243 Recession Effects spread across 2004 -09 period thus damping this 5 year CAGR to 6.8% and 2009 – 14 period, thus giving second 5 year CAGR to 5.3% Eastern Europe 12.0% 11.6% 20 14 200 25 Africa / Mideast 8.0% 10.1% 162 15 150 8 125 65 Latin America 10.0% 10.5% 17 10 5 90 11 6 25 100 7 3 10.5% 9.7% 49 14 50 Asia Pacific 38 39 34 Western Europe 4.5% 3.3% 28 61 32 40 45 2004 2009 2014 North America 5.0% 4.4% 0 2019 North America Western Europe Asia Pacific Latin America Eastern Europe Africa / Mideast 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Source: Freedonia 2011, Company estimates , IMF April 2011 4 Weighted average growth rates 2009-2014 Strong exposure to high growth developing markets G4S % Revenue 2010 Market Growth GDP Growth Eastern Europe 5% 12.0% 11.6% Africa/Middle East 13% 8.0% 10.1% Latin America 6% 10.0% 10.5% Asia 10% 10.5% 9.7% Western Europe 42% 4.5% 3.3% North America 24% 5.0% 4.4% G4S – Weighted Average 6.5% 6.0% Source: Freedonia 2011, Company estimates , IMF April 2011 5 G4S Revenue from New Markets Proportion of revenues more than doubled to 29% 2,500 10.0% 2,000 9.0% 1,500 8.0% 1,000 7.0% 500 6.0% 13% 16% 18% 22% 24% 26% Revenue Margin % of group revenues 29% 0 Margin Revenue (£m) New Markets Revenues/Margin 2004-2010 5.0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 6 Global Security Rise of New Markets from 33% to 48% of global market E Europe 3% Africa Middle East 7% Latam 8% Africa Middle East 9% N America 36% E Europe 5% N America 28% Latam 11% Asia 15% Asia 23% W Europe 24% W Europe 31% 2004 market size: £57bn 2019 Market Size: £155bn 7 Global Outsourced Security Market v G4S Customer Split Opportunity in CNI 2010 Market sector split Retail 7% Industrial 21% 2010 G4S customer split Consumers 4% Financial Institutions 14% Government 20% Leisure 2% Financial Institutions 19% Retail 9% Industrials 25% Government 28% Commercial 13% CNI : Ports, Airports/Rail 10% CNI : Energy/ Utilities 15% Logisitics 2% Ports & Airports 4% Utilities 7% Sources : Freedonia, Frost & Sullivan, Turner & Townsend, G4S analysis 8 Global Market by Segment & Market Shares Fragmented markets except Cash Solutions The £90bn global b2b security market – by segment and market share (2010) By segment By global market share Justice, 4% Other, 4% Brinks Prosegur Secom Serco Civil UTC/GE Cash Solutions, 10% Tyco/ADT Manned Security, 62% Securitas Others G4S Security Systems, 20% Security market segments – global market shares (2010) Manned Security Securitas 12% Security Systems Tyco ADT 15% UTC - GE 15% G4S 9% Prosegur 3% UTC 1% Others 58% Others 70% Allied Security 2% Others 39% Secom 5% Secom 1% ISS 2% Cash Solutions G4S 4% Niscayah 3% Brinks 23% G4S 15% Garda 4% Loomis 12% Prosegur 7% Source: Market data & G4S estimates 9 G4S Market Overlap Integrated security solutions - no direct peer c.10% c.35% c.7% c.10% c.10% Cash Solutions: Secure Solutions: Cash Solutions: Government: Secure Solutions: • UK • Europe • UK • US • Europe • Canada • Far East • Some of Europe • UK • Australia • UK • S. Europe • Asia c.10%* Secure Solutions: • UK * 16% including Government Source: Market data & G4S estimates 10 Key Market Trends Market Customer Product/Service Industry Consolidation Facilities Management (some markets) Innovative Technology – differentiator Rise of New Markets to c.50% of market Balancing customer economic and security needs Risk Management and Consultancy a differentiator Regulation improves standards and benefits high quality providers Growth of internationally let contracts Global Consistency important Government Outsourcing 11 Economic sensitivities 12 Historic Organic Growth During a “normal” economic cycle G4S Organic Growth 1996 to 2008 (%) vs GDP No cyclical relationship during normal cycle 12.00% 10.00% Average 8% Percentage (%) 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% Organic Growth 2.00% GDP* (Nominal) GDP* (Real) 0.00% -2.00% * Ex Brazil and China -4.00% -6.00% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Global Insight, G4S analysis 13 Historic Organic Growth G4S Organic Growth 1996 to 2009 (%) vs GDP 12.00% No cyclical relationship during normal cycle 10.00% Defensive but not immune in a severe downturn Percentage (%) 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% Organic Growth 2.00% GDP* (Nominal) GDP* (Real) 0.00% -2.00% * Ex Brazil and China -4.00% -6.00% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Global Insight, G4S analysis 14 Analysis of G4S organic growth vs. IMF GDP 15 Analysis of G4S Qtr on Qtr Organic Growth vs. IMF GDP Growth + 9 months 16 Cash Solutions - Developed Markets Organic Growth vs. Weighted Average Base Rate % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Wt Ave Base Rate % Organic Growth % 17 Economic Sensitivities of G4S GDP/inflation Will deliver growth well above nominal GDP due to trends towards outsourcing and increasing global security requirements All business segments benefit from an inflationary environment Interest Rates Base Rates below 2.5% can result in cash services reductions Economics of outsourcing improve at higher interest rates Short-term margin pressure Government Budget constraints should accelerate long-term outsourcing opportunity Contract fundamentals Majority of contracts include price escalators or discussion clauses Wage inflation helps drive organic growth 18 G4S Core Values 19 Core Values What G4S stands for Customer Focus We have close, open relationships with our customers that generate trust and we work in partnership for the mutual benefit of our organisations Teamwork & Collaboration We collaborate for the benefit of G4S as a whole Expertise We develop and demonstrate our expertise through our innovative and leading edge approach to creating and delivering the right solution Integrity We can always be trusted to do the right thing Best People We always take care to employ the best people, develop their competence, provide opportunity and inspire them to live our values Performance We challenge ourselves to improve performance year-on-year to create long term sustainability 20 Objectives 21 Business Strategy G4S is the world’s leading international security solutions group which specialises in outsourcing of business processes and facilities in sectors where security and safety risks are considered as a strategic threat B – B Markets B – G Markets “the assessment and management of security and safety risks for buildings, infrastructure, materials, valuables, people and society” Long Term (5+ years) Contracts should be output based around delivery of the one or more of the following Customer’s Business Objectives : Revenue Growth Cost Management Critical Asset or Risk Management (including regulatory) Customer Service (end customer) 22 Key Business Objectives Teamwork and Collaboration Integrity Recognised as global leader in outsourced solutions Strong reputation for integrity & positive contribution to society Growth Customer Focus Continuously improve employee satisfaction & retention Continue organic and acquisitive growth in New Markets multiservice business Embed customer satisfaction monitoring and focus on customer service Build talent pools to meet future business requirements Build significant presence in China, India , Saudi Arabia & Brazil Best People Expertise Acquire significant additional capability in risk consulting and systems integration Performance 23 Integrity CSR Achievements & Focus for 2011 2010 Achievements Implemented a CSR Checklist for assessing acquisitions and major investments Became a founder signatory to an in new International Code of Conduct for private security providers Introduced a group-wide simplified ethics code which can be easily understood by all employees CSR benchmarking exercise carried out in April 2010 – evaluation versus peers and best practice Commissioned independent customer survey amongst top 200 customers 2011 Focus Became a signatory to the UN Global Compact Implementing requirements of the Bribery Act Developing and implementing approach to Human Rights 24 Key Business Objectives Teamwork and Collaboration Integrity Recognised as global leader in outsourced solutions Strong reputation for integrity & positive contribution to society Growth Customer Focus Continuously improve employee satisfaction & retention Continue organic and acquisitive growth in New Markets multiservice business Embed customer satisfaction monitoring and focus on customer service Build talent pools to meet future business requirements Build significant presence in China, India , Saudi Arabia & Brazil Best People Expertise Acquire significant additional capability in risk consulting and systems integration Performance 25 Acquisition Strategy 26 Acquisitions Key areas of focus New Markets Capability Building Market share building manned security Risk Consulting Facilities management / services Systems Integration £200m + per year 27 Summary 28 Summary Market Economic improvement heading in the right direction Positive global security market trends G4S uniquely positioned across key growth markets G4S Strategic Development Create global secure solutions group focusing outsourcing of strategic security and risk processes Build on strong New Markets positions via acquisition and organic growth Substantial opportunity in China, Brazil, India and Saudi Arabia Continue building capability in US and UK markets Acquisitions - £200m+ Risk Consulting All services (including facilities) in New Markets Performance Reaffirmed key financial objectives to deliver increased organic and EPS growth 29