Investor Presentation
Transcription
Investor Presentation
Investor Presentation Helsinki, Stockholm, Vienna, Frankfurt February 18-20; 2008 1 Notice • This presentation does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscription for any securities and no part of it shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. • The information contained in this document has not been independently verified. No representation or warranty express or implied is made as to and no reliance should be placed on, the accuracy, completeness, correctness or fairness of the information or opinions contained herein. Neither the company nor any of its affiliates, advisors or representatives shall have any liability whatsoever (for negligence or otherwise) with respect to any loss howsoever arising from any use by third parties of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with it. • Turkish ad market figures are estimates of DYH; based on currently available data. Ad market statistics may show inconsistency with IFRS figures. • TME P&L figures were consolidated starting from 2Q07. Therefore 9M consolidated results include only 2Q and 3Q results of TME. Balance sheet figures include TME. 2 Contents • Corporate Overview …………………………………… 4 • Ad Market Trends ..................................................... 10 • Business Overview ……………………………………. 14 • Publishing ……………………………………………… 16 • Printing ………………………………………………… 23 • Online ………………………………………………….. 25 • TME Outlook After the Acquisition …………………… 34 • 2008 Guidance for Hurriyet domestic operations ….. 38 • 9M Financial Review ………………………………....... 42 • Back up slides …………………………………………. 47 3 Corporate Overview 4 Corporate Structure Doğan Yayın Holding (DYH) Major shareholder of Hurriyet. Largest Turkish media conglomerate, with core businesses of publishing and broadcasting. Total ad market share of 42%. 60% Listed in Istanbul Stock Exchange. Hürriyet #1 publishing & printing group in Turkey. 41% ad market share among newspapers. #1 Turkish news website. Listed in ISE since 1992 with a free float of 40% and market capitalization of around $ 1 bn. 67.3% Trader Media East (TME) #1 print & online classified company in Russia and Eastern Europe. Listed in London Stock Exchange with a free float of 32.7% 100% Printing Assets 7 newspaper and ofset printing plants in Turkey and 1 printing plant Germany. 5 # 1 media company of Turkey # 1 classified advertising company of Russia, CIS, Baltics and Eastern Europe DDo you k o yo knnow that ow th Hür iinnthe u thesseennsseethataitt Hürrriiyyeettiissuunnique t ique nnewspape t itiisstthheeonly ewspaperrin thha o n l y e w ••increas in the woorrld with ld with: : inc ing ••highreesasingcciirrccuula t i l a tioonn; hig t m aad mahrekst maarrkkeettsshhaare in; ne d markeet; re in newwspaper t; spaper ••a new a newssppoortal be in r lo loccaallwweebbsite,tal beinggth theem moossttvviisisited s i t e, aall at th ted ll at theesame t same tiim mee 6 Milestones in Hürriyet’s history Started classifieds, still leading with 65% market share 1948 1954 Established IPO of 10% in ISE (at 70 mn $ market cap.) 1969 Operations in Germany started 1992 Ad revenues reached $ 100 mn 1994 6 printing plants were structured under DPC 1996 Shares acquired by Doğan Group 1997 First online move Business title “Referans” was launched 2002 Printing plant in Frankfurt opened. Ad revenues reached $ 250 mn 2004 2005 Free float reached 40% 2007 Online classifieds started TME acquisition 7 Milestones in TME history The first issue of Iz Ruk v Ruki came out in Moscow 1992 1993 oouu t y o y DDo tthhaat w o kknnowre e ly wweeaarn eenttly r r u r ccur tinngg a i s ooppeerra4t cciittiiees 0 iinn1104ssiiaa?? u s iinnRRus Pronto Moscow acquired by Trader Classified Media TME’s IPO in London Stock Exchange Online operations started 2004 1998 2005 2006 2007 Iz Ruk v Ruki started to coming out in regions Croatia joined the group 8 TME established, comprising former operations of Trader Classified Media TME acquisition by Hurriyet 10 countries, 350 mn population and over US$ 10 bn ad market… Russia Population (mn) 2006 revenue (US$m) 2006 EBITDA (US$m) EBITDA Margin CIS & Baltics 142 134 47 35% Population (mn) 2006 revenue (US$m) 2006 EBITDA (US$m) EBITDA Margin 72 24 6 27% Eastern Europe Population (mn) 2006 revenue (US$m) 2006 EBITDA (US$m) EBITDA Margin 53 54 11 21% Russia Lithuania Belarus Poland Turkey Population (mn) 2006 revenue (US$m) 2006 EBITDA (US$m) EBITDA Margin Ukraine 72 442 102 23% Slovenia Hungary Croatia Turkey 9 Kazakhstan Ad Market Trends 10 A region with high growth media landscape, and with further high potential of growth… 2003-2007 CAGR of advertising spend 36% 32% Countries where Hurriyet & TME are present Some Western European countries 30% 20% 10% Ukraine Russia Turkey Very high growth in the region we are operating 9% Croatia Hungary Spain 4% 4% UK Italy 2% 2% France Germany Source: ZenithOptimedia. Classified Spend per capita - 2006 ($) 15,6 16,3 13,3 3,6 1,2 1,4 Ukraine Russia 3,7 But still very big potential for growth… 4,7 1 Turkey Poland Croatia Hungary Spain 11 France UK Potential of EU triggered growth Ad spend / GDP 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Hungary Czech Rep. Poland Bulgaria Turkey Source: ZenithOptimedia For the new EU members, ad spending gained considerable momentum after the initiation of membership negotiations. Hence, the EU membership prospect offers great potential to growth for Turkish ad market. 12 Turkish advertising market 6000 0,65% Ad spend (YTL mn) Ad spend/GDP 0,56% 0,52% 5000 0,55% DDo oyou th thaat youkknnow HHür t ow r ü i r y th t eehiriyeetthha g ppoh wwerhighheest ass o aam errrat st moong aitioo nnew ngoth ther iin tewsp spaapeo rrs er n p h e e t wwor he s orld ? ld? 0,40% 4000 0,42% 0,45% 0,47% 0,46% 3775 3262 0,35% 0,37% 0,37% 3000 2726 0,25% 2231 Ad spend/GDP Ad spend (YTL mn) 0,50% 1814 2000 0,15% 1319 1090 1000 701 656 0,05% -0,05% 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 The share of Hürriyet in Turkish advertising market* 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008F Outdoor; 5,6% Cinema; 1,2% New spapers ; 33,9% TV; 51,5% Radio; 3,9% *As of 9M07. Magazine; 3,9% 13 Hürriyet; 40,7% Others; 59,3% Business Overview 14 Business Structure Publishing (82%)* Printing (15%)* Hürriyet Germany * As of 9M07. 15 Online (3%)* Publishing 16 Circulation in Turkey 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Total 0,7 Hürriyet 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 Hurriyet Total Avg. daily circulation (mn) DDo oy ttha yoouukkn ht o tthe atTTuurrkenoww h 5 ky ccirce 5tthhlar eyiiss ircuula largges m maark lattiioon estt EEur rkeettin n uroope in pe?? Turkey is one of the few markets with increasing circulation (10% average growth in last 5 years). Cover prices are low compared to Europe. Hürriyet cover price is 35-40 Ykr in weekdays, 50 Ykr in weekends. 17 Hürriyet growth model Regional Editions & Inserts Periodic Supplements Main title Economics Internet Differentiators Core business - high growth, high margin Strong brand with high brand awareness Penetrate into new reader and advertiser base Attractive reader profile Most influential Premium ad price strategy Diversify the product portfolio Flexible cost base Leverage a proven brand into new revenue streams 18 Hürriyet: Supplements and Regional Editions w nnoow k k of f yyoouu4% od o DDo t 444% a dmss t a t iyeet a e th a t s thurrrriy ess stem HHuenuue en rreevvm nntsts l e o m eonaal frfrom le m p e p l p egiion su sunpddrrengs?? aan tio ns o eeddiiti 19 Main publications of TME Russia & CIS Eastern Europe 4 CIS countries and 122 cities Main titles: Iz Ruk v Ruki and Aviso Main verticals: Rabota, Photo Nedvizhimost, Avto Iz Ruk v Ruki: Daily generalist newspaper Annual circulation of 53 million copies One of the most well known brands 3 Eastern Europe countries: Hungary, Croatia, Poland 17 publications Main title: Expressz, Oglasnik, Auto Bit Expressz: Daily generalist newspaper & 5 weekly verticals Undoubtely market leader Oglasnik: The leading daily generalist newspaper with over 60% share Five editions each week 89% Brand recognition in Russia 20 TME revenue model Vehicles Real Estate Jobs Household Goods Sellers’ Side Buyers’ Side Classified Ads (31%) Display Ads (45%) Basic line advertisements Inventory advertising Pay for prominence Brand advertising Run ‘til it sells Online banners Priority/visibility products Powerpages Services & ONLINE (17%) Paid lines/call centre priority (premium line) Circulation & Paid Access (7%) Cover price Home delivery/ subscription Paid SMS (for ad placement/ renewal) Prepaid cards Inserts Sponsored text links Display and classified ads are the major revenue generators 21 TME growth model Generalist Verticals New Markets Online Economics Differentiators Strong brands with high brand awareness Core business - high growth, high margin High cash flow generation Local markets and rich local content Low capital intensity Strong local sales force Leveraging the same content through different types of media Leverage a proven business model for high growth markets 22 DDo oyyoou th a th t ukkno PPro ateedditionoww it n n aareronto toMMosionssoof reddis oc scooww f iin 7 tsr i i trb n RRus 70000ccitiibuute tedd ssisa e i u t s i BBal ia, ,CI esin CISSanin atlitc ics? andd s? Printing 23 Printing 2006 Signature Breakdown Leading commercial printing company in Turkey, printing mainly magazines and inserts. Other 9% Day print capacity of 5 mn signatures; capacity utilization of 75%. Magazines 51% Insert 40% 2006 Revenues of $ 40 mn; EBITDA margin of 15%. Mn YTL FY06 9M06 9M07 Revenues 56.6 44.3 51.8 %16.9 EBITDA 8.5 7.4 8.9 %19.3 15% 17% 17% - EBITDA margin 24 Online 25 Our region is immature in internet the leading print classified company From... to become... the leading online community and classified player of the Eastern Europe and CIS region 58% 2006 internet penetration rates 33% Right time to invest in online Great “content” advantage through 32% 27% 21% Croatia Hungary Russia Poland leveraging print Target is to achieve “clear leadership position” in all markets 18% Turkey West Europe 26 Online business: #1 newsportal in Turkey, as well as a wide range of classifieds and community websites in the whole Classifieds News Portals Community Generalist Turkey Russia & CIS Hungary 1Q 08 1Q 08 2Q 08 2Q 08 1Q 08 Poland Croatia Slovenia, Serbia, Bosnia 19 leading classified websites in real estate, auto, recruitment and general classifieds New launches are planned in Russia and Hungary. 27 Leading online classified brands Croatia Russia Top classifieds site in Croatia 106 K ads 214 K UMVs Leader in generalist classifieds 1.2 mn ads 1.9 mn UMVs Top jobs site in Russia 186 K ads 2,6 mn UMVs Warsaw Competency Center Poland One of the biggest generalist website in Poland 239 K ads 248 K UMVs Top recruitment site in Croatia 4 K ads 87 K UMVs Centralized software development One of the biggest real estate site in Croatia 16 K ads 42 K UMVs One of the biggest auto verticals in Poland 81 K ads 920 K UMVs Top auto site in Croatia 10 K ads 97 K UMVs Slovenia Leading property site in Poland 411 K ads 702 K UMVs Leading jobs portal in Slovenia 730 ads 93 K UMVs One of the biggest machine site in Poland 16 K ads 47 K UMVs Turkey A leading job portal in Turkey 2.2 mn UMVs, 5,5 K ads Hungary Leading property site in Turkey 820 K UMVs, 290 K ads Top classifieds website in Hungary 336 K ads 1,1 mn UMVs *2007 September figures 28 Recently launched auto web site 425 K UMVs, 9 K ads hurriyet.com “A success story” Leading news portal which is one of the most visited websites in Turkey and the 10th mostly visited newsportal in the world. Not only a news portal, a platform having extensive user originated content 1000 mn page views & 14 mn unique visitors as of 2007 year-end. Ad revenue growth of around 200% Communities under hurriyet.com.tr Video & photo sharing websites Magazine news Economic and stock market news including charts & financial information Tourism classifieds including useful information about hotels and holiday sites Independent community websites 29 BLOG – editorial content sharing websites Sport news Top ten places – social website Tv & Cinema guide Hurriyet.com.tr reached 14 mn UMV PAGE VIEW UNIQUE VISITOR 1047 mn. 1110 Page View Unique visitor 13,71 mn. 14,5 13,5 12,5 11,5 9,5 8,5 510 7,5 6,5 310 5,5 newsportal started in 1997. reached 14 mn UMV as of the end of 2007. began to yield positive EBITDA in 2007. 30 Nov-07 Sep-07 Jul-07 May-07 Mar-07 Jan-07 Nov-06 Sep-06 Jul-06 May-06 4,5 Mar-06 110 mn 10,5 710 Jan-06 mn 910 HURRIYET EMLAK.COM & OTO.COM Hurriyet emlak.com revenue growth 22% real estate website started in March 2006. 924 K UMV as of 2007 year-end. began to yield positive EBITDA in 2007. 23% 26% 86% 17% 72% 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 E : vehicle website started in May 2007 580 K UMV. job website 1,3 mn UMV 36% revenue increase in 2007. 31 Rapid growth in online Online 1,7% 2006 2007E Print 98,3% Print 96,0% Online 5,3% Online 2006 Print 94,7% Online 7% Online 4,0% 2008E Reach 20% by 2012, although strong organic growth continues in newspaper segment Print 93% Online 10,5% 8,0% 2008E 2007E Print 89,5% Print 92,0% 32 Reach 20% by 2012, although strong organic growth continues in print Hurriyet online revenues will continue to grow substantially… Hürriyet online revenue growth* 100% 150% 34% CAGR 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E DDo you kn o yo knoowwthat hu that hurrrriiyet.com iissTurku yet.co Turkeeyy’s’sm o s wwebsite wit mosttvviisisitteeddTTuurkishm ebsite withh14 milli rkish o 1 n 4 U M m M o i r ll e i o o n UMVVs.s. Moreovveerr, ,this mak t e h s i T s u makes Turrkey tthhe only co key e only couuntry w n try witithhaa nneewsporta l ma wsp ttrraffic.ortal makkiinnggtthheehhig ighheestst affic. * Excludes TME data. 33 TME Outlook After the Acquisition 34 Efficiency enhancing measures in TME • Paris headquarters are moving to İstanbul. This is expected to save around 40% in corporate expenses. • New senior management in place. New CEO will be appointed soon. • The loan restructuring has been completed, which is expected to save taxes by USD 2 mn per year. • Legal restructuring is still continuing. • The effective tax rate will decline from around 50% to around 35%. • Synergy in newsprint purchases: Negotiations with newsprint suppliers to combine TME purchases with Dogan Group’s contracts are continuing. • New launches on internet continues. Job.ru was commercially launched as of February 6th; domaina.ru and automania.ru are expected to be commercial in 1Q08. • Software development center in Warsow will be relocated in Istanbul progressively. 35 Revenue growth exceeded guidances Acquisition announced at 10 $ per share IPO at 13 $ per share 18,8% 17,7% 15,9% 13,9% 12-14% growth guidance of TME management for 2007 8,2% 6,5% 2,9% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2007 2006 36 Q3 DDo oyyoou IIz R z Ruk ukknnoow t m that moost pukvvRRukw h ppap st poopu ukiiis tat is h p la ae bbra perrwwithularraads thee rannd ith89% ds in inRRu drreeccog 89% ogni bbra usssisa rannd iaaandntiito ionn in inMMo drreeccog nd9944% % osc scooww? ognnitiito n i o ? n What about 2008? Mn USD Revenues Online share in total revenues Operational EBITDA Operational EBITDA margin Consolidated EBITDA Consolidated EBITDA margin Growth in USD Organic Growth terms 2008 guidance (9M07 vs 9M06) (9M07 vs 9M06) 2006FY 9M06 9M07 211,4 152,0 200,4 + 31.9% + 17.5% 18% - 22% organic growth 4,3% 4,2% 5,9% - - 9% 65,2 45,0 56,3 + 25,1% - - 30,9% 29,6% 28,1% - - - 57,3 39,6 47,4 + 20,0% - - - Unchanged compared to 2007 27,1% 26,0% 23,7% - 2007 growth guidance was set as 12-14%; which was largely exceeded, as the organic growth was as high as 17.5% in 9M07 and there was no major change in the growth outlook in the last quarter of 2007. 37 2008 Guidance for Hurriyet domestic operations 38 Hürriyet domestic operations in 2008 2006FY 9M06 9M07 Growth (9M07 vs 9M06) 2008 guidance 380 278 292 5,2% 15% Online/total ad revenue 1,7% 2,0% 4,0% - 7% EBITDA margin 23,1% 24,7% 19,2% Mn YTL Ad revenues 3-4 pp increase compared to 2007 DDo oy oour yoouukkno u p nw UUkr r puubbllicaowtthhaat A ic t ka cclas raiinnee, ,is atiioonnint Avviissoo, , la s i t tthhe ssiififieeddais thheebbign w d ig ssiizee woorrlldd, iadppaaperggeesstt zeaand , innte periin r s n ndad m advolterm voluum sooff mee. . 39 2008 outlook for Hurriyet domestic operations • There has been a recovery in Turkey’s ad market in the last quarter of 2007, driven by CB rate cuts. • The CB is expected to continue to reduce interest rates in 2008 as well, though not excessively. Hurriyet’s ad revenues are expected to benefit from the rate cuts in 2008. • Online revenues in domestic operations are targeted to grow by around 100% in 2008. • Promotion activities are expected to diminish considerably in 2008, alleviating the pressure on the cost side. • High growth in ad revenues, together with lower promotions are expected to lead to improved margins in 2008. 40 Our Strategy is • To keep our 40% print market share position. • To develop our internet both organically and through acquisitions; strengthen our leading position in both classifieds and news. Our Strategy is •To be the leading community and classified website in the 10 countries we are operating. • Consolidate the market share and become clear market leaders in every segment and every country we operate. 41 9M Financial Review 42 9M07 Consolidated IFRS Results FY06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 3Q06 632 374 6 81 118 53 141 78 4 23 31 5 265 183 9 29 30 14 254 164 10 30 36 15 151 86 2 18 32 12 %Ch. (3Q 07/06) 68% 91% 351% 64% 10% 21% -545 -184 -111 -68 -49 -133 -138 -49 -27 -23 -12 -28 -221 -68 -53 -33 -16 -52 -215 -65 -54 -35 -15 -46 -130 -49 -25 -12 -12 -32 Operating Profit 87 2 44 39 O.Operating Income (Net) Financial Expense* Minority 38 -13 1 3 2 0 -7 15 -2 Profit Before Tax Tax 114 -10 7 -1 Net Profit 104 Depreciation Amortised cost valuation Adj.EBITDA (YTL mn) Total Revenues Ad Revenues (print)* Ad Revenues (online) Circulation Revenues Printing Revenues Other Revenues Total Costs Raw material Personnel Sales and marketing Depreciation Other EBITDA Margin Net Profit Margin 9M07 9M06 659 425 23 82 97 33 474 272 5 62 90 44 %Ch. (9M 07/06) 39% 56% 319% 32% 8% -25% 65% 34% 113% 202% 20% 43% -574 -182 -133 -91 -43 -125 -401 -137 -74 -49 -36 -105 43% 33% 79% 88% 19% 20% 21 88% 85 73 16% 9 18 -2 8 1 0 7% - 6 34 -5 36 -14 1 -84% - 49 -15 64 -19 30 -5 114% - 120 -34 96 -5 26% - 6 34 44 25 80% 85 90 -6% 49 10 146 12 3 17 16 3 63 15 3 57 12 4 36 20% -11% 56% 43 9 137 36 8 117 20% 16% 17% 23,1% 16,5% 12,2% 4,4% 23,9% 13,0% 22,4% 17,5% 24,2% 16,4% 20,8% 12,9% 24,7% 19,0% * Excludes amortized cost valuation income, which is part of ad revenues classified under interest income according to IFRS regulations. 43 Net Cash Position (000 YTL) Cash and Equivalents 2006 164,9 9M06 146,2 9M07 162,3 S.T Bank Borrowings L.T Bank Borrowings 7,1 39,0 13,9 34,0 27,2 545,4 Net Cash 118,8 98,3 -410,3 Investments Supplier Loans 124,1 93,5 61,8 56,6 46,4 103,5 Net debt position of YTL 410 mn includes TME’s net debt of YTL 134 mn. Hürriyet’s capex budget for 2007 is fully realized in the first nine months. 44 Revenue Growth by Regions – TME standalone Mn USD 9M06 9M07 Growth in USD terms (9M07 vs 9M06) Russia 95,4 132,7 + 39.0% Moscow 50,0 60,4 + 20.8% Other Russia 45,4 72,2 + 59.0% CIS 16,4 24,0 + 46.1% CEE 40,1 43,8 + 9.2% Total 152,0 200,4 + 31.9% Revenue Breakdown by Regions CEE 26% CEE 22% Moscow 33% CIS 11% 9M06 Moscow 30% CIS 12% Other Russia 30% 9M07 45 Other Russia 36% EBITDA by Regions – TME standalone Mn USD 9M06 9M07 Growth in USD terms (9M07 vs 9M06) Russia 32.1 44.2 + 37.6% Moscow 24.0 24.9 + 3.7% Other Russia 8.1 19.3 + 137.6% CIS 4,2 5.3 + 27.4% CEE 8.7 6.7 - 23.2% Operational EBITDA 45.0 56.2 + 24.9% Consolidated EBITDA 39.6 47.4 + 19.8% EBITDA Breakdown by Regions CEE 19% CIS 9% CIS 9% CEE 12% Moscow 45% Moscow 54% Other Russia 18% Other Russia 34% 9M06 46 9M07 Back up slides 47 * as of 29.11.2007 HURGZ 48 ISE-100 12.01.08 12.12.07 12.11.07 12.10.07 12.09.07 12.08.07 12.07.07 12.06.07 12.05.07 12.04.07 12.03.07 12.02.07 2,50 12.01.2008 12.12.2007 12.11.2007 12.10.2007 12.09.2007 12.08.2007 12.07.2007 12.06.2007 160 12.05.2007 12.04.2007 12.03.2007 12.02.2007 Valuation HURGZ 4,50 Max:4.36 4,00 3,50 3,00 Min:2.78 2,00 Relative Performance (12-months) 140 120 100 98 80 60 66 Corporate Governance & Credit Rating Proven track record of shareholder value and corporate governance principles since 1992 Fitch rating for Hürriyet as of July 2007: Foreign Currency – BB (stable outlook) Local Currency Long term BB (stable outlook) National AA Corporate governance rating of 8.0 (on a scale of 10) by ISS Corporate Services, on September 2007. Moody’s corporate rating is expected to be announced soon. 49 Newsprint prices Average Newsprint Costs (US$) Newsprint 800 774 750 700 747 661 600 However, prices has been declining in 3Q07. 684 650 619 550 563 500 450 492 501 2002 2003 400 2000 2001 2004 2005 * Including all costs and expenses like custom duties, transportation etc. 50 prices reached the last 6 years’ highest. 2006 9M07 Hürriyet’s major advertisers Sectors 2006FY 9M06 9M07 Classifieds (incl. HR) 15% 16% 16% Real Estate 13% 13% 13% Automotive 14% 14% 11% Finance 7% 6% 8% Tourism 7% 7% 8% Retail 6% 7% 6% Social 5% 5% 5% Education 3% 3% 4% Communication 2% 2% 3% State Enterprises & Political Parties 1% 1% 3% First 10 Total 73% 74% 75% Others 27% 26% 25% 51 Weakness in the automotive sector was reflected as a considerable decline in ad spending of this sector. Real estate, finance, tourism were the strongest sectors in terms of ad spending. Contact Information Investor Contact http://www.hurriyetcorporate.com http://www.dyh.com.tr http://www.tmeast.com e-mail: ir@hurriyet.com.tr tel: (90) 212 677 0850 52