ncgt journal - New Concepts in Global Tectonics

Transcription

- An international journal for New Concepts in Global Tectonics -
NCGT JOURNAL
Volume 3, Number 1, March 2015. ISSN 2202-0039. Editor: Dong R. CHOI (editor@ncgt.org). www.ncgt.org
Editorial board
Ismail BHAT, India (bhatmi@hotmail.com); Giovanni P. GREGORI, Italy (giovanni.gregori@alice.it);
Louis HISSINK, Australia (lhissink1947@icloud.com); Leo MASLOV, USA (lev.maslov@unco.edu);
Nina PAVLENKOVA, Russia (ninapav@mail.ru); David PRATT, Netherlands (dp@davidpratt.info);
Karsten STORETVEDT, Norway (Karsten@gfi.uib.no); Boris I. VASILIEV, Russia (tesla@poi.dvo.ru);
Takao YANO, Japan (yano@rstu.jp)
CONTENTS
From the Editor Earth’s geodynamics interacting with solar system and planetary forces…….. …………………………2
Letters to the Editor
Crustal oceanization in historical perspective. Karsten M. STORETVEDT…………………………………………………….……..3
Reply to K. Storetvedt’s letter, “Crustal oceanization in historical perspective”. Lidia IOGANSON………………………5
Antagonism and emotions in science. Karsten M. STORETVEDT………………………………………………………….7
Articles
9/56 year cycle: earthquakes in South East Asia. David MCMINN…………………………………………….……11
(Historic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions in South East Asia were found to fall preferentially in 54/56 year grids)
Earthquakes occur very close to either 06:00 or 18:00 lunar local time, Giovanni P. GREGORI……………….…..21
(If an earthquake has to occur at some location and on some day, almost always it happens during either one of two time
intervals close either to 06:00 or to 18:00 lunar local time).
A lunar “mould” of the Earth’s tectonics: Four terrestrial and four lunar basins are derivative of one wave
tectonic process. Gennady G. KOCHEMASOV………………………………………………………………….…29
(Any warping body standing waves originate from their movement in keplerian noncircular but elliptical or parabolic
orbits; a common structuring process that is identified as the wave structuring)
Tendency of volcano-seismic activity developed in the central part of the Honshu Arc, Japan. Fumio TSUNODA,
Takayuki KAWABE, Yoshihiro KUBOTA, Masashi HAYAKAWA and Dong R. CHOI…………………………......34
(Based on the systematic northward movement of the volcano-earthquake process in the central part of the Honshu
Arc, Japan, the sudden eruption of Ontake Volcano in September 2015 is considered a precursor for a major earthquake in
the River Shinano Seismic Zone, Central Japan)
The Australia-Antarctica dynamo-tectonic relationship: Meso-Cenozoic wrench tectonic events and paleoclimate.
Karsten M. STORETVEDT……………………………………………………………………………………….…43
(This paper takes a fresh look at crucial facts from the Australia region and Antarctica and, by using the fundamental tenets
of the inertia-driven Global Wrench Tectonics in light of the tectonic history of the two continents, builds up a new mega-scale
coherent and sequential order of facts and phenomena)
Short communication
Ceres’ two-faced nature: expressive success of the wave planetology. Gennady G. KOCHEMASOV……………….63
Discussions
Earth expansion and thick air for ancient birds. Robert J. TUTTLE………………………………………………………....65
Comment on Stephen Hurrell paper: paleogravity and fossil feathers. Giovanni P. GREGORI………………….…………68
Essays
Massive changes in climate & sea level. Peter M. JAMES…………...……………………………………….………71
The pattern of global cataclysms. Peter M. JAMES…………………………………………………………….……..87
Publications
Solar flare five-day predictions from quantum detectors of dynamical spare fractal flow turbulence: gravitational
diminution and Earth climate cooling. Reginald T. CAHILL…………………………………………………….…..98
On the relationship between cosmic rays, solar activity and powerful earthquakes. Mikhail KOVALYOV and
S. KOVALYOV…………………………………………………………………………………………………….…..98
Financial support and About the NCGT Journal…………………………………………………………….…......100
For contact, correspondence, or inclusion of material in the NCGT Journal please use the following methods: NEW CONCEPTS IN GLOBAL
TECTONICS. 1. E-mail: editor@ncgt.org, ncgt@ozemail.com.au, or ncgt@hotmail.com, each file less than 10 megabytes. For files larger than 10
megabytes, please send to ncgt@hotmail.com; 2. Mail, air express, etc., 6 Mann Place, Higgins, ACT 2615, Australia (files in MS Word format,
and figures in jpg, bmp or tif format); 3. Telephone, +61-2-6254 4409. DISCLAIMER: The opinions, observations and ideas published in this
journal are the responsibility of the contributors and do not necessary reflect those of the Editor and the Editorial Board. NCGT Journal is an
open, refereed quarterly international online journal and appears in March, June, September and December. For Mac computer users, this journal
in pdf format must be opened with Acrobat or Acrobat Reader. ISSN numbers; electronic copy –ISSN 2202-0039, print copy - ISSN 2202-5685.
Global Impact Factor for 2013: 0.667. (www.globalimpactfactor.com)
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NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March 2015. www.ncgt.org
FROM THE EDITOR
Earth’s geodynamics interacting with solar system and planetary forces
F
rom the beginning, NCGT has focused mainly on two aspects of global tectonics: firstly, the documentation of
hard evidence from the world’s continents and oceans, including the development of tectonic models to
explain them; and secondly, the study of how interaction with the solar system and other planets affects Earth’s
geodynamic phenomena. While the former has established solid ground, a plethora of factual data have
accumulated for the latter, particularly in recent years.
This NCGT issue includes a very interesting article by Giovanni Gregori (p. 21-28). It shows that earthquakes
tend to occur at 08:00 or 16:00 lunar local time, when the maximum stress on the crust occurs; these are the times
when the deformation time-gradient is at its maximum. This discovery opens the way to giving a specific time
window for earthquake occurrence on the predicted day in the target region.
The Gregori paper builds on the historic discovery by Kolvankar (NCGT Newsletter, no. 60), who clarified that
the occurrence of earthquakes with relatively small magnitude (5.0 or smaller, which are readily influenced by
tidal fluctuation) is strongly controlled by: 1) Sun-Earth-Moon angle, and 2) distance between earthquake
epicentre and Moon. The Kolvankar paper was revolutionary – it is still one the most popular papers that have
appeared in NCGT.
The Kolvankar-Gregori papers lead to a better understanding of the earthquake triggering mechanism. Their
studies must be developed further to understand the trigger mechanism of major quakes (magnitude 6.0 or greater)
that have a devastating impact on human lives and society. The great earthquakes involve complex mechanisms in
their generation: energy movement in the mantle and the crust, trapping structures, and final release into the
atmosphere. But undoubtedly the Sun, the Moon and other planets are intricately interacting with the Earth’s outer
core, which is the ultimate thermal-electromagnetic energy source.
With other NCGT scientists, the present Editor noted that earthquake and volcanic activities are inversely
correlated with solar cycles (NCGT Newsletter, nos. 57 & 61). Along with the solar cycle, they discovered the
possible influence of another powerful planetary force that brought about an abrupt quiescence or reduction in
seismic/volcanic activities between 1996 and 2003, as if one of the Earth’s switches had been turned off.
Solar activity’s influence is clearly seen in the global climate as well. There is growing evidence that the Earth is
entering a prolonged, major cold era comparable to the Maunder (1645-1715) or Dalton Little Ice Age (17931830) for the coming 30 years, which has been strongly advocated by John Casey (2014, “Dark Winter”,
www.humanixbooks.comm; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETh_o_YbbJ4).
Furthermore, a major development has occurred in the study of gravitational wave or space flow. As introduced in
the Publications section of this issue (p. 98), Reginald Cahill of Australia argues that the space speed fluctuations,
which are gravitational waves with a significant magnitude, are the cause of solar flares – hence the space flow
modulates solar activity fluctuations or solar cycles (http://ptep-online.com/index_files/2014/PP-39-10.PDF). He
conjectures that climate change on Earth is affected by the galactic space flow turbulence, which pumps energy to
both the Sun and the Earth. The observed diminishing gravitational waves imply a cooling epoch for the Earth for
the next 30 years, which perfectly concurs with the Casey theory.
In addition to the above, there is a good progress in the study of cosmic rays. An abstract of one of the latest
studies by Kovalyov (2015) is presented on pages 98-100. Interestingly, the cosmic ray fluctuation anti-correlates
with the solar cycle. Obviously it is influencing solar and Earth dynamics.
The Earth is not alone. Geodynamic phenomena including long-term climate are closely knit with other external
forces. This requires us to take a multidisciplinary approach in solving Earth’s geodynamic problems. An exciting
era has arrived.
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LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
Crustal oceanization in historical perspective
I
n this journal, Lidia Ioganson has recently given enlightening brief overviews of the scientific activity of
the renowned Russian geologist Vladimir V. Beloussov (1907-90). For decades, Beloussov argued that
continental crust had been transformed into oceanic basement by way of crustal basification. Ioganson
(2014) takes it for granted that this idea had been invented by Beloussov. However, this assertion needs to be
corrected: the concept of progressive crustal basification processes, giving rise to crustal densification,
related isostatic subsidence, and ultimately to the formation of deep sea basins, was originally put
forward in 1919 by the prominent American geologist Joseph Barrell - at a time when Beloussov was a
young boy.
Between 1914 and 1919, Barrell wrote a series of papers within the general context of lithospheric dynamics,
isostasy and surface geology (Barrell 1914a-g, 1919). In his final paper, terminated just before his sudden
death in 1919 (at age 50) but published posthumously (Barrell 1927), Barrell proposed that massive
injections of magma into the original continental crust would increase crustal density to the extent that
subsidence would ensue. For such a mechanism to work, the crust had to be intruded by material heavier than
that of the yielding underlying asthenosphere. Barrell’s continental fragmentation model held that
gradually subsiding basins ultimately could end up as deep sea basins. In other words, continental crust was
able to form deep ocean basins, but only after it had been transformed, wholly or partially, into a
denser basaltic layer. In sharp contradiction to the, by then, popular version of the North American isostatic
principle (Hayford & Bowie 1912), Barrell argued that uplifts and subsidence events, presumably
accounting also for sea-level oscillation, were basically not products of surface loading/unloading, but rather
caused by vertical mass transfer at depth; therefore, surface phenomena like erosion, sedimentation,
earthquakes and other tectonic actions were just passive responses to the internal processes,
The model and related facts highlighted by Barrell are consistent with well-known cases of vertical tectonics
in the United States, such as the Basin and Range Province and the Colorado Plateau; these examples
indicated irregular up-welling of fluids and volatile material invading the brittle lithosphere. He reasoned
that, due to vertical magmatic infiltration of the outer rigid shell, the inferred underlying soft (or plastic) zone
– the asthenosphere, was unlikely to be sharply defined. In Barrell’s day, the necessary knowledge of crust
and upper mantle structure, required for placing his oceanization model onto a more solid physical platform,
was not available. Therefore, to compensate for the lack of specific information about the substrate, Barrell
leaned on a good deal of circumstantial evidence to support his imperative point: subsurface processes had
produced rifting and subsidence of many crustal segments, and the degree of crustal subsidence was
dependent on the density of fractures - paving the way for increased magmatic injection, crustal densification
and resulting isostatic subsidence. In this way, Barrell’s model was also able to explain bathymetric and
basin irregularities.
Based on surface geology, it was obvious to Barrell that smaller crustal sections had caved in and, therefore,
larger portions of the Earth’s rigid shell could have done so too. Today, it seems a well-established fact that
any sedimentary basin of substantive extent is underlain by thinned crust, a fact that would have put Barrell’s
oceanization model on a much more solid ground than in the days of its original formulation. Fig.1
delineates Barrell’s crustal development scheme - for a profile across the northern North Atlantic. According
to his model, Iceland was regarded a continental fragment covered by a younger basaltic layer; today, it is
indeed widely accepted that Iceland is underlain by a 40-50 km thick continental-like crust, suggesting that
the top layer of plateau basalts may be relatively thin (for references and discussion, see Storetvedt &
Longhinos 2011).
When the idea of sea floor spreading took roots in the 1960s, Barrell’s work had apparently long been
forgotten - if ever recognized by the post-World War II geological and marine geophysical communities. As
the drift/spreading camp rapidly expanded, along with its aura of victorious euphoria, studies of the old
geological literature was regarded waste of time (cf. Storetvedt 1997, 2003). Against the popular plate
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Fig. 1. Barrell’s oceanization model postulating fragmentation of the original continental (granitic) crust through
processes of regional lithospheric basalt infiltration (densification) with attendant isostatic subsidence. Note the higher
concentration of crustal fractures in regions of developing oceanic basins. The surface profile (level 1) runs from Baffin
Island (B), via Greenland (G), Iceland (I), the Faeroe Islands (F), the Hebrides (H) to Scotland (S). Level 2, graniticdioritic lithosphere; level 3, mean depth of isostatic compensation; level 4, upper part of the asthenosphere penetrated
by magmas and volatiles from below; level 5, deeper part of the asthenosphere, a presumed thick solid layer of basic
material with pockets of magma. Illustration is from Barrell (1927).
tectonics trend, Beloussov was a bothersome critic arguing that instead of lateral continental motions/sea
floor spreading, geological evidence favoured vertical ocean basin formation. Vladimir Beloussov (1962)
asserted that:
“There is reason to believe that the surface of the Earth in earlier times contained no deep oceans and that their
place was occupied by shallow marine basins smaller in area than the present oceans. With the passage of time the
gradual subsidence of the Earth’s crust, occupying progressively greater areas and not being matched by deposition
of sediments, led to the formation of the ocean basins”.
But this statement was hardly anything else but a reiteration of Joseph Barrell’s oceanization concept
from 1919.
It seems that Beloussov never gave Barrel any credit for his work; in this context, Ioganson (2014a) writes
that “in the 1960s he [Beloussov] presented his concept [sic] of the basification of the continental crust as
the mechanism for the origins of the ocean basins”. As Barrell’s papers on crustal dynamics and
oceanization had been published in reputed periodicals - such as Am. Journal of Science and Journal of
Geology - it is hard to believe that Beloussov was unaware of their existence. One may wonder, therefore,
whether Beloussov’s ignorance was deliberate - perhaps a product of chauvinism and patriotism instigated by
the cold war?
Beloussov was a staunch and forceful critic of plate tectonics. For him, all important tectonic phenomena
were the direct or indirect product of differential vertical movement of crustal regions of variable size, and
there was no place for relative continental motion. He referred to drift as plain fantasy in total “disregard of
the basic geotectonic data - explaining nothing of what must be explained in the first place” (Beloussov
1962). But how could he be so sure about his own geotectonic ideas when they apparently were unable to
establish a coherent link-up of surface geological phenomena? In his relentless arguments against drifting
continents and plate tectonic processes, he dismissed mantle convection as an assumption being far from
reality. But what about his own ad hoc ‘fantasies’ on “internal heat waves” and “multilevel differentiation”?
Were they any better than the many plate tectonic speculations? At the end of his life, he eventually realized
that his long-lasting geotectonic endeavours were far from having reached an appropriate conclusion (cf.
Ioganson 2014b). Perhaps his reasoning went astray because of ingrained habits of thinking in geology - such
as the ‘fixity’ view of the Earth, along with the old idea of an internal heat engine?
Beloussov based his theoretical work largely on the gross tectono-physiographic surface features, and
therefore he had problems explaining the wealth of new geophysical and structural information that was
being accumulated. It was obvious that the sea floor did not represent a plain system of vertical subsidence
and basification of original continental crust; it was also obvious that other processes were superimposed,
features with which the simplistic version of oceanization could not readily account. Observations of
particular concern were the wide coverage of deep sea linear magnetic anomalies along with ridge-parallel,
tectono-topographic grain of the ‘mid-ocean’ ridges.
At the yearly international NATO Study Institutes in Newcastle during the 1960s, there were rumours that
Beloussov had ran into explanatory difficulties with respect to the rapidly growing marine-geophysics
database. In the early 1970s, two of my former M.Sc. students were doing post-graduate research at Lamont -
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Daugherty Geological Observatory, New York, at a time when Beloussov was visiting the Observatory. They
could tell that, during discussions of marine-magnetic and other ocean floor data, the Lamont geophysicists
had put Beloussov ‘up against the wall’. At the time, I was already subliminally aware that the popular drift
theory had too many ‘hidden’ fundamental problems in view of the factual observations then available; I was
beginning to uncover the model’s continuous flow of ‘tactical secrets’. In 1989, after 20 years of speculation
as to why plate tectonics didn’t work, I realized that palaeomagnetic data had been forced to fit Wegener’s
drift model, and that the fossil magnetic evidence was consistent with a much less mobilistic system. All of a
sudden, a new theory of the Earth, namely, global wrench tectonics,was born in my mind, for which the
driving force was the Earth’s variable rotation. The thin, and mechanically weak, oceanized crustal regions
had then (in late Cretaceous-Lower Tertiary time) been affected by latitude-dependent lithospheric torsion;
the tectonic squeezing had led to mineral alteration, fault-controlled contrasts in magnetic susceptibility,
internal structural deformation of the deep sea basement, and to moderate reshaping of the pre-established
oceanic basins (formed by crustal oceanization).
In this new global scheme, the marine magnetic anomalies were the products of induction by the ambient
geomagnetic field - causing susceptibility contrasts and associated field variations (anomalies) perpendicular
to the tectonic shear grain. Thus was plate tectonics replaced by a new global theory with which plate
tectonics was not compatible, but which did provide coherence with geophysical and geological data; my
first attempt at formulating the new global model was published in Physics of the Earth and Planetary
Interiors (Storetvedt 1990). One of Beloussov’s colleagues, Victor Sholpo, visited Bergen in 1998, and he
told me that my untraditional paper had been very well received by Beloussov (Beloussov died in late
December 1990, some 9 months after my paper had been published).
References
Barrell, J., 1914a. Upper Devonian delta of the Appalachian geosyncline. Am. J. Sci., v. 37, p. 87-109.
Barrell, J., 1914b. The strength of the Earth’s crust: Part I. Geologic tests of the limits of strength. J. Geol., v. 22, p. 28-48.
Barrell, J., 1914c. The strength of the Earth’s crust: Part II. Regional distribution of isostatic compensation. J. Geol., v. 22,
p. 145-165.
Barrell, J., 1914d. The strength of the Earth’s crust: Part III. Influence of variable rate of isostatic compensation. J. Geol., v. 22,
p. 209-236.
Barrell, J., 1914e. The strength of the Earth’s crust: Part IV. Heterogeneity and rigidity of the crust as measured by the departures
from isostasy. J. Geol., v. 22, p. 289-314.
Barrell, J., 1914f. The strength of the Earth’s crust: Part V. The depth of masses producing gravity anomalies and deflection
residuals. J. Geol., v. 22, p. 441-468.
Barrell, J., 1914g. The strength of the Earth’s crust: Part VI. Relations of the isostatic movements to the sphere of weakness - the
asthenosphere. J. Geol., v. 22, p. 655-683.
Barrell, J., 1919. The status of the theory of isostasy. Am. J. Sci., v. 198, p. 291-338.
Barrell, J., 1927. On continental fragmentation and the geologic bearing of the Moon’s surface features. Am. J. Sci., v. 213, p. 283314.
Beloussov, V.V., 1962. Basic Problems in Geotectonics. New York, McGraw-Hill, 816p.
Hayford, J.F. and Bowie, W., 1912. The effect of topography and isostatic compensation upon the intensity of gravity. In: U. S. Coast
and Geodetic Survey Publ. No. 10. Washington D. C., U. S. Govt. Print. Office.
Ioganson, L., 2014a. Beloussov’s view of the origin of the oceans. NCGT Journal, v. 2, no. 2, p. 7-12.
Ioganson, L., 2014b. Generalized geotectonic hypothesis of Vladimir V. Beloussov. NCGT Journal, v. 2, no. 4, p. 14-19.
Storetvedt, K.M., 1990. The Tethys Sea and the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt; mega-elements in a new global tectonic system.
Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., v. 62, p. 141-184.
Storetvedt, K.M., 1997. Our Evolving Planet. Bergen, Alma Mater (Fagbokforlaget), 456 p.
Storetvedt, K.M., 2003. Global Wrench Tectonics. Bergen, Fagbokforlaget, 397 p.
Storetvedt, K.M. and Longhinos, B., 2011. Evolution of the North Atlantic: Paradigm Shift in the Offing. NCGT Newsletter, no. 59,
p. 9-48.
Karsten M. Storetvedt
karsten.storetvedt@gfi.uib.no
********************
Reply to K. Storetvedt’s letter “Crustal oceanization in historical perspective”
P
rofessor Karsten Storetvedt is well known for his passion for extensive discussions, the content of which,
as a rule, denigrates his opponents, while positioning himself as the victim of the conformist majority of
the scientific community and as the author of the most overarching geotectonic hypothesis. The last point in
his lengthy articles is particularly important. It seems the discussion is only an opportunity for Storetvedt to
emphasize once more the value of his “wrench tectonics” hypothesis. It is curious that such self-promotion is
accompanied by multiple citation of sources, familiarity with which ought to teach Storetvedt to adopt a
more appropriate approach to scientific disputes, to avoid a disdainful tone and soberly assess his own
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scientific achievements. Answering his letter and his unacceptable – in the context of scientific debate –
attacks on prominent scientist Beloussov will merely whet his polemical appetite. Nevertheless, as an
English proverb says: “The absent are always in the wrong” (and here the absent is Beloussov), I have to
reply.
The main complaint in Storetvedt’s letter to the Editor is that Beloussov failed to cite the work of Barrell,
whose ideas about the mechanism of basification largely coincide with Beloussov’s. Moreover, if Storetvedt
had better known the works of Beloussov, he would have noticed another coincidence ‒ both scholars attach
great importance to the permeability of the crust in the presumed processes. The simplest explanation for
why Beloussov did not mention Barrell’s article, published in a foreign magazine in 1927, is that he was not
aware of it, as he began to investigate the problem of basification in the 1960s. The articles by Barrell cited
by Storetvedt focus on completely different topics. He also suggests that Barrell’s works were subsequently
thoroughly forgotten (he is talking about articles from 1914-1919 and 1927).
Naturally, one person even with phenomenal efficiency cannot learn all the scientific literature ‒ it is just
physically impossible. Famous English writer Virginia Woolf once said that if she had first to read
everything about a particular subject of interest to her, “the aloe that flowers once in a hundred years would
flower twice before I could set pen to paper” (Woolf, 2002).
In Storetvedt’s eyes, however, the lack of any reference to Barrell in Beloussov’s work is not due to
unawareness. Curiously, he does not directly accuse Beloussov of plagiarism, but instead hurls an absolutely
ridiculous accusation of chauvinism and patriotism at him. However, he ignores the abundant references to
foreign authors, even in the only work by Beloussov that he mentions. For some reason, the following
consideration, well known to those familiar with the history of science, and perfectly expressed by Goethe,
did not stop his gloating pen: "What is in the air and what the time demands, may originate simultaneously in
a hundred heads without any borrowing." By the way, in this statement one can find an explanation of why
Barrell’s work on basification was forgotten ‒ it is important to be relevant to one’s time, and the 1960s
were precisely a time when ideas were being developed about the origin of the ocean. It should be added that
Beloussov’s idea of basification was simply a necessary element in his coherent concept of the directed
evolution of the Earth. Again, my article is devoted to this, and not to the history of the concept of
basification.
However, it seems that Storetvedt is not very familiar with Beloussov’s works. This is directly evident from
his letter, where he mentions (and quotes) only one of Beloussov’s works ‒ translated into English as Basic
Problems in Geotectonics (1962). Storetvedt’s own book Our Evolving Planet (1997) does not contain a
wealth of references to Beloussov’s work either. His further invectives against Beloussov’s scientific ideas
are groundless and simply wrong. For example, Storetvedt argues: “Beloussov based his theoretical work
largely on the gross tectono-physiographic surface features, and therefore he had problems explaining the
wealth of new geophysical and structural information that was being accumulated.” In reality, Beloussov
was one of the first geologists to understand the importance of taking geophysical data into account in
identifying the deep causes of tectogenesis and he made abundant use not only of geophysical but also of
geochemical data in his works. In the history of the Earth Sciences he was not only as an outstanding
scientist, but also one of the initiators of international cooperation in the study of the Earth’s deep interior. In
1957 he was elected as Vice-President of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), and
in 1960, at its 12th session, as President of the IUGG. Here Beloussov proposed the international project
"The upper mantle and its influence on the development of the Earth's crust”, which started a new epoch in
the Earth Sciences:
The Upper Mantle Project was formally proposed at the 12th Assembly (Helsinki, 1960) of the International Union
of Geodesy and Geophysics by Professor Beloussov of the USSR, now President of IUGG. The adopted resolution
reads as follow:
The IUGG, considering the importance of upper mantle studies for investigation of solid earth geophysics, decides
to undertake a broad programme of research, including among others the following subjects:
1. Deep drilling.
2. Development of deep-sea seismographs for the exploration of the upper mantle under oceans.
3. Special studies of deep-focus earthquakes.
4. Magnetic and gravimetric studies
5. Studies of tectonic and magmatic development of the crust.
6. Theoretical studies of phase changes, thermal conditions, equations of state.
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7. High-pressure laboratory studies of behavior of rocks. (Bullen, 1963, p. 78)
Based on his poor knowledge of Beloussov’s ideas, Storetvedt characterizes him simply as an opponent of
plate tectonics who adopted a fixist position. In general, this is understandable because in the 1960s
Storetvedt was a supporter of plate tectonics. This colored his scientific image of Beloussov, and later he was
too busy inventing and advertising his own “overarching hypothesis”.
But the question arises ‒ why did Storetvedt demonstrate his astonishing ignorance? It seems appropriate to
recall one of his own articles where he quotes from Stuart Firestein’s book Ignorance: “It [ignorance] shows
itself as stubborn devotion to uninformed opinions, ignoring … contrary opinions, or data. The ignorant are
unaware, unenlightened, uninformed, and surprisingly often occupy elected offices. We can all agree that
none of this is good” (Storetvedt, 2013, p. 57). Indeed, “none of this is good”. Also surprising is the
unacceptably dismissive tone in which his letter is written. And what about the "rumours" he refers to – are
these appropriate arguments in scientific disputes?
In a posthumously published article, Beloussov expressed doubts about the current possibility of creating an
adequate theory of tectogenesis: “The author believes that, in our efforts to make generalizations in the
Earth Sciences, we need to recognize our complete inability at present to formulate a reasonable causal
theory of the development of the Earth and even of the Earth’s crust… We can gradually approach the
creation of a global theory of the Earth's interior. However, many generations of researchers will pass
before such a theory is created” (Beloussov, 1991, p.119). Storetvedt considers this to be a weakness of
Beloussov’s“long-lasting geotectonic endeavours”. On the other hand, it seems that Storetvedt is quite
satisfied with his own achievements and therefore his main occupation after creating his "wrench tectonics"
is disparaging criticism of other scientific approaches.
Nevertheless, I am grateful to Storetvedt for the important reference to the work of Barrell on continental
crust basification. Barrell is firmly entrenched in the history of Geology as the author of the term
“asthenosphere” and one of the founders of the method for estimating the absolute geological age, so
information about his contribution (now only historical) to the development of the concept of oceanization is
very valuable. It extends our knowledge of the dramatic history of scientific ideas, which is subjected to its
own whimsical laws and makes its own judgments, independent of the biased estimates of contemporaries.
References:
Beloussov, V.V., 1962. Basic Problems in Geotectonics. New York, McGraw-Hill, 816p.
Beloussov, V.V., 1991. Plate tectonics and tectonic generalization. Boll. Di geofis.: teorica ed applicata. v. 33, no. 130/131,
p. 111-119.
Bullen K.E., 1963. Upper Mantle Project. The Australian Journal of Sciences, v. 2, no. 3, September, p. 77-79.
Storetvedt, K.M., 1997. Our Evolving Planet. Bergen, Alma Mater (Fagbokforlaget), 456p.
Storetvedt, K.M., 2013. Global theories and standards of judgment: knowledge versus groundless speculation. NCGT Journal, v. 1,
no. 3, p. 56-102.
Woolf , V., 2002. A Room of One’s Own. eBook No.: 0200791.txt.
Lidia Ioganson
ioganson@bk.ru, iogan@ifz.ru
********************
Dear Editor,
Antagonism and emotions in science
I
n addition to serving as a much needed corrective to the current authoritarian and dogmatic geoscientific
culture that has developed during the plate tectonics regime, this journal has gradually established itself as
an important forum for discussion of alternative views in global tectonics. Thus, the journal has taken on a
very demanding task – an undertaking extending far beyond the usual technical and observational aspects
that constitute the essence of normal scientific activity. Thus, it is of paramount importance to focus on the
perturbing psycho-social aspects of science – features of the human nature which so easily can lead science
into blind alleys. When erroneous basic ideas are projected onto natural phenomena, the science community
involved may end up studying fictitious problems by means of a multitude of artificial mechanisms, dry
formalism and meaningless terminology. This is indeed the situation for the Earth sciences today; after
decades of plate tectonic speculations, reasonable explanations of prominent tectonic phenomena and of the
Earth‘s geological history are as remote as ever. Most of “today’s scientist is no longer the absent-minded
cosmic thinker; the entity has emerged as a brash species that believes in elbowing its way up” (Down to
Earth, April 15 1996).
8
It is a well-established fact that ground-breaking new maxi-theories (‘first-order’ frameworks) is not a
collective achievement; in general, they are not a matter of making more observations but rather of devising
new explanations capable of integrating the overwhelming volume of data already to hand. Throughout the
history of science, new fundamental insights in each field have always come from the untraditional thinking
by a few individuals – colloquially, ‛thinking outside the box’; such people saw opportunities where the great
majority only saw the wall. The famous Norwegian mathematician Niels Henrik Abel (1802-1829) was once
asked how he had acquired his outstanding abilities at such a young age, upon which he gave the following
combative answer: "By studying the masters and not their students". The authority of a scientific community
– and not least of its leaders – will always be severely threatened by a new alternative theory. The classical
intransigent opposition to any new ground-breaking idea will inevitably depend as much on unwillingness to
contemplate the virtues of a new idea as on the ability to understand.
Researchers are controlled by the ideas that somehow have become integral parts of their inner personal
esteem established as a consequence of a dogmatic education and the influence of their peers and colleagues.
Such cognitive orientation determines how members of a professional community think and, indeed, what
they are able to see and understand. In accordance with this fact, and based on a survey of important
historical accounts, science analyst Thomas Kuhn (1962) argued that the chances of any major change in
perception being eventually embraced by a scientific community are slim – changes occur in sudden
revolutionary leaps during which the great majority of professionals are bystanders. Thus, in order to
understand science, it is necessary to take into consideration existential aspects and socio-cultural factors. In
a number of essays, articles and letters in this journal, I have given numerous examples supporting Thomas
Kuhn’s description of science – including the invisibility of scientific revolutions. Kuhn writes: “I suggest
that there are very excellent reasons why revolutions have proved to be nearly invisible. Both scientists and
laymen take much of their image of creative scientific activity from an authoritative source [a textbook] that
systematically disguises – partly for important functional reasons -– the existence and significance of the
scientific revolutions”.
Launching a new cause and effect relationship in science (i.e., a theory) is indeed a threat to ingrained
opinions and the worst thing that can happen to the well-being of an established professional community – to
its leaders as well as to all the individual scientists making up that community. Due to the prevailing
emotional component in most human activities, challenging inbred opinions and prejudices is a risky affair
which almost without exception leads to a multitude of overt and covert sanctions. When a new scientific
world view is threatening the peace of mind within a discipline, many of the established workers feel
uncomfortable: careers and professional identity are at stake, and the psychological disturbance sometimes
triggers a reaction similar to the behaviour people exhibit when they are exposed to high stress. In
consequence, originators of untraditional ideas will often be ignored, thwarted and even threatened. The
dignitaries who hold prominent positions and have received high honour for past achievements are usually
not willing to see the current of progress leaving them stranded on untenable foundations.
Beveridge (1959) says “there is in all of us a psychological tendency to resist new ideas”. Even at a very
early stage of his distinguished career, Max Planck (originator of the quantum theory) experienced the innate
cultural resistance, in regard to some new ideas which he presented in his doctoral dissertation at the
University of Munich in 1879. In his scientific autobiography (1949) Max Planck describes this early
experience of his: “None of my professors at the University had any understanding for its contents. I found
no interest, let alone approval, even among the very physicists who were closely connected with the topic.
Helmholtz probably did not even read my paper at all. Kirchoff expressly disapproved...I did not succeed in
reaching Clausius. He did not answer my letters, and I did not find him at home when I tried to see him in
person at Bonn. I carried on a correspondence with Carl Neuman, of Leipzig, but it remained totally
fruitless”. In his general reflections on science, he must have had a particularly sad moment when he wrote
that during his life “experience gave me also an opportunity to learn a new fact – a remarkable one, in my
opinion: A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light,
but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it”; ‘it’,
of course, being the new truth.
When viewed separately, individual phenomena may have a range of diverse meanings. Therefore, real
knowledge represents a natural and predicted relationship between different types of phenomena and has
therefore a higher cognitive status. But even knowledge is not placed on the topmost cognitive shelf – there
we find wisdom or good judgments. In other words, prudence is located at the very top of the hierarchy,
while data are located at the bottom. Hence, observations show their real meaning only after they have been
9
successfully related to a functional overarching theory – without being subject to ad hoc adjustment.
Realistic theories should therefore readily embrace and explain phenomena, or as Democritus formulated it
more than 2500 years ago: “The truth goes through the phenomena”. On the other hand, consensus on central
issues, along with the common resistance of scientists themselves to scientific discovery (Barber 1961), may
lead a scientific community into prolonged self-deception. Once a popular view has taken roots – often for
obscure reasons, the ability of the human mind to find and accept alternative explanations turns out to be
extremely poor. In this context, T.H. Huxley is reported to have said: “‘Authorities’, ‘disciples’, ‘and
‘schools’ are the curse of science, and do more to interfere with the work of the scientific spirit than all its
enemies.” (Bibby 1959).
Immediately after the release of my first book – Our Evolving Planet (1997), I received a call from the editor
of the popular science magazine ‘Naturen’ – Per Magnus Jørgensen, Professor of Botany (plant geography).
I was told that my article ‘The Power of the Paradigm’, which shortly before had been published in
‘Naturen’, had aroused great interest among high school teachers in science. In the article, I had discussed
how many of our ways of thinking are unrelated to our understanding or insight, but rather governed by
fashion-embossed attitudes and the principle of repetition; we are under a constant influence of the prevailing
mentality and socio-political forces that too often makes us unconscious participants in a mass movement
towards populist views. Plate tectonics was mentioned as an example of such an ‘unconscious’ professional
state of affairs. In response to the requests from teachers, I agreed to write a series of articles on the history
of global geological theories – including my own theory on wrench tectonics. The first article in the series –
entitled ‘Wegener’s continental drift hypothesis: theory and facts on collision course’ – was published in the
fall of 1998. The article immediately sparked fire in the ‘complacent camp’; influential forces in the
Norwegian geosciences community went into action in an attempt to stop the planned series of articles.
As a result of all the negative frankincense that my book and my recent article had created, an extraordinary
meeting of the editorial committee had to be convened. I later got to know that the editor had received many
horrendous inputs – including attempts at sheer bluff about my opponents’ scientific superiority. However,
because of the turbulent situation, the planned series of eight articles had to be reduced to six. But the
opponents had been encouraged (by the editor) to come forward with their ‘correct’ view of global tectonics,
and a Bergen geology professor was given this task. I understood immediately that a considered response
would never come from the party objecting to the series of articles (in fact, ‘Naturen’ never received the
promised article). The fierce reactions had been just a play to the gallery. In my scientific autobiography
(Storetvedt 2005), I discussed at length the weird behaviour of some prominent Norwegian geoscientists, and
as Professor Jørgensen some years earlier had a glimpse of the real situation behind the polished façade, the
new editor of ‘Naturen’ gave him the commission to review my book. The reviewer wrote (‘Naturen’ no. 4,
2006; my translation):
Important book about the conditions of science in academia
“Professor Storetvedt is indeed a brave man. After years of harassment from colleagues because he exposed
fundamental weaknesses in current geophysical theories, he has now collected his experiences in a sobering
text. The book is not encouraging reading even though I, as a former editor of 'Naturen', get an honourable
mention. As editor I saw it as my clear duty to enlighten readers about the new development in
geophysics...Let me cite what I, in ‘From the Editor’, wrote at that time [Naturen, no. 1, 1998]: ‘Whether his
new theory will stand, only time and further research will be able to tell. However, even as a non-expert in
the field, I have noticed that he promotes a simple explanatory model which readily clarifies many
phenomena; that may indicate that one is on the right path’. This positive attitude to the new theory [outlined
in my 1997 book], and that it had been reviewed in 'Naturen', led to many sharp and startling reactions from
the geoscientific communities in Norway. Professional gusto is a too weak expression for what I experienced,
in that the reactions were both unfair and very emotional. The editor of ‘Geonytt’ [the house journal of the
Norwegian Geological Society] went so far that he, in an editorial note, stamped ‘Naturen’ as an unreliable
popular scientific journal because we had accepted articles on, and allowed discussion of, the new theory.
However, he must be applauded for having allowed me to respond with a commentary – in which I asked
what periodical is the most reliable: those that remain silent about new theories, or those that account for
them. I, who was on the remote outskirts of the events, was severely shaken in my basic belief that scientific
discussions are objective, based on facts, and that suppression of 'unpleasant' results is a form of cheating
which the scientific process soon detects and reveals.
In his scientific autobiography, Professor Storetvedt gives a fair account of his own and far tougher
experience. The book is shocking reading; principal players are named and might perhaps think they are
stigmatized – not without reason, I would say. He is very factual in its depiction of reactions and not at all
10
vindictive. He rises above the unpleasant personal episodes and looks at the problems from a broader
perspective: the conditions of science and its problematic development. He also gives a proper account of
the geoscientific problems and how he, through doubts and renewed measurement and analysis, as well as in
discussions and struggle with colleagues, has gained new insight ending up with an alternative theory.
It is easy to understand that it has been difficult to work out the history of the Earth's land masses as it
involves many sciences and requires data that are not easy to grasp. The incomprehensible, however, is that
researchers in the field have been so blinded by Wegener's theory in that it was weakly substantiated by
facts. Even harder it is to understand that some, especially in this country, resist attempts at correcting old
mistakes – with beaks and claws. Science does not benefit from attitudes of that kind. One may hope
therefore that this book will be an eye-opener for scientists, science bureaucrats and politicians.
This is an important book in the discussion of the development of science – which paths one should
follow and which are undesirable dead ends. Above all, it proves how important it is to ask questions, even
at ‘read and accepted’ theses, and that one should not seek paths of least resistance. Ideally, science is a
truth-seeking activity, and that should also manifest itself in the way scientists behave."
Before closing this letter, it is important to stress that the perceptive researcher works on an abstract
operational plan; he/she thinks in abstractions and is preoccupied with processes/phenomena and their
interlinking – and comparatively less with observations/data. The rare ability to see phenomena within the
sum of individual observations, and to describe these quantitatively, is a prerequisite for establishing new
overarching theories in science. Einstein (1949) expressed this observation/theory relationship succinctly
when he wrote: “Theory can be tested by experience, but there is no way from experience to the setting up of
theory”. Thus, a ground-breaking theory is an individual cognitive achievement – an invention, for
which there is no recipe.
References
Barber, B., 1961. Resistance by Scientists to Scientific Discovery. Science, v. 134, p. 596-602.
Bibby, C., 1959. T.H. Huxley: Scientist, Humanist, and Educator. New York, Horizon Press, 330p.
Einstein, A., 1949. Autobiographical Notes, Open Court, 89p.
Kuhn, T.S., 1962/1970. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 210p.
Planck, M., 1949/1968. Scientific Autobiography. New York, Philosophical Library, 196p.
Storetvedt, K.M., 2005. Når Grunnlaget Svikter. Oslo, Kolofon, 266p.
Karsten M. Storetvedt
Institute of Geophysics, University of Bergen,
Bergen, Norway
11
ARTICLES
9/56 YEAR CYCLE: EARTHQUAKES IN SOUTH EAST ASIA
David MCMINN
Independent Scholar
mcminn56@yahoo.com
Abstract: A 9/56 year cycle has been established in the timing of major earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The
prospect of this cycle showing up in patterns of historic South East Asian earthquakes (M ≥ 7.8) was assessed in some
detail. These events were found to fall preferentially in 54/56 year grids. Such patterns were also evident in the timing
of large earthquakes in Japan – Kamchatka, Alaska and Chile – Peru and were a feature of large earthquakes around
the Pacific Rim. Additionally, 9/56 year and 18/56 year grids yielded significance for South East Asian quakes.
Overall, the 9/56 year hypothesis was well supported.
Keywords: 9/56 year, 54/56 year, earthquakes, cycles, Indonesia, Philippines.
Introduction
T
he 54/56 year grids were first established in the timing of financial panics in the USA and Western
Europe (McMinn, 1986, 1993) and then extrapolated to world mega earthquakes (M ≥ 8.6) since the
late 19th century (see Appendix 1). Similar 54/56 year grids could be produced for major earthquakes (M ≥
7.8) in Alaska and Japan – Kamchatka (McMinn, 2014a), as well as in Chile – Peru (McMinn, 2014b).
Some common seismic patterns were clearly evident around the Ring of Fire. Such grids were also
hypothesised to arise in earthquake cycles for South East Asia (M ≥ 7.8) over the past 120 years. This was
verified by the findings, thereby offering further support for a strong 54/56 year effect in Pacific
earthquakes. Additional 9/56 year and 18/56 year grids were also established for large South East Asian
earthquakes (M ≥ 7.8).
The 9/56 year cycle consists of a grid with intervals of 56 years on the vertical (called sequences) and
multiples of 9 years on the horizontal (called subcycles). Critical events will cluster with statistical
significance in these patterns. The 56 year sequences were numbered in accordance with McMinn (1993),
with 1817, 1873, 1929, 1985 being designated as Sequence 01; 1818, 1874, 1930, 1986 as Sequence 02 and
so forth. McMinn (Appendix 2, 2002) presented the full numbering. In the accompanying tables, the dates
were expressed as YYYYMMDD and the year ending November 24 was considered to be the year of best
fit. The database of the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) was accessed to compile a listing of
major earthquakes (M ≥ 7.8) taking place in South East Asia (see Appendix 2). For the purposes of this
paper, South East Asia was taken to cover Indonesia, the Philippines, Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia,
Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. It also included parts of eastern India (Assam and the Nicobar and Andaman
Islands), as well as Yunnan in south west China.
Indonesia
Indonesia is by far the most seismically active country in South East Asia and was thus considered
separately. There have been 44 large Indonesian events (M ≥ 7.8) since 1790 (see Appendix 2), of which
25 showed up in the 9/56 year grid in Table 1 (significant p < .001).
Sq
12
Table 1
9/56 YEAR CYCLE: MAJOR INDONESIAN QUAKES 1790-2013 M ≥ 7.8
Year ending November 24
Sq
21
1828
1837
Sq
30
1790
1846
1884
1893
1902
Sq
39
1799
1855
1911
Sq
48
1808
1864
0523
1920
Sq
01
1817
1873
Sq
10
1826
1882
Sq
19
1835
1891
1929
1938
1947
Sq
28
1844
1900
1007
1956
12
1940
1939
1221
1949
1958
1967
1976
1985
1996
2005
0101
0328
1996
2004
0217
1226
Continued…….
Sq
Sq
37
46
2014
Sq
55
Sq
08
Sq
17
Sq
26
1833
1124
1889
0906
1842
1945
1954
2001
2010
0406
2010
1025
1797
0210
1853
1852
1125
1806
1815
1824
1862
1871
1880
1909
1918
1118
1927
1965
1974
1983
1936
1935
1228
1992
1898
0201
1994
0602
2003
Sq
35
1795
1851
Sq
44
1804
1860
1907
0104
1907
0625
1963
1104
1916
0116
1916
0116
1972
0611
2012
0411
2012
0411
2019
2021
Source of Raw Data: National Geophysical Data Center.
South East Asia
The ensuing analysis was limited to the post 1898 era, because 7 events took place in 1897 and thus any
findings based on data including this year would be heavily biased. For South East Asia, significance could
be achieved via an 18/56 year grid as presented in Table 2. Of the 56 earthquakes experienced since 1898,
some 23 took place in this arrangement (significant p < .001). The year 1897 did not appear in the table, but
significance was still at p < .01 even if it was included in the assessment.
Sq
12
Table 2
18/56 YEAR SEISMIC CYCLE: SOUTH EAST ASIA Post 1898 M ≥ 7.8
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
30
48
10
28
46
08
26
44
06
24
1898
1900
1007
1902
1901
1214
1920
1938
0201
1956
1918
0815
1918
1118
1974
1936
1935
1228
1954
1992
2010
0406
2010
1025
1916
0116
1916
0116
1972
0611
1934
0214
1952
0319
1990
0716
2008
Sq
42
1914
0526
1970
0104
13
1940
1939
1221
1958
1976
0816
1994
0602
2012
0411
2012
0411
1996
2014
0101
1996
0217
54/56 Year Grids
The top 6 earthquakes for South East Asia (M ≥ 8.6) fell in the same two 54/56 year grids that were established for
world mega quakes (see Appendix 1). However, large South East Asian events (M ≥ 7.8) appeared selectively in three
54/56 year patterns as shown in Appendix 4. These can be combined to give a layout with intervals repeating 9, 9, 36,
9, 9, 36, 9, 9…….. years on the horizontal and 56 years on the vertical (denoted as a 9-9-36/56 year cycle) (see Table
3). Of the 56 major South East Asian quakes post 1898, some 25 showed up in this configuration (significant p < .01).
Sq
14
Sq
23
Table 3
9-9-36/56 YEAR SEISMIC CYCLE: SOUTH EAST ASIA Post 1898 M ≥ 7.8
Sq
32
1942
0408
+9
1951
0319
+9
1904
1903
1228
1960
1998
+9
2007
0912
2007
0912
+9
2016
Continued…….
Sq
28
1895
+9
Sq
08
+9
1900
1007
+ 36
+9
1956
+ 36
+9
2012
0411
2012
0411
1936
1935
1228
1992
Sq
12
+ 36
+ 36
1940
1939
1221
1996
0101
1996
0217
Sq
17
Sq
21
Sq
30
1893
+9
+9
1949
+9
1902
1901
1214
1958
+9
2005
0328
2004
1226
+9
2014
Sq
26
Sq
06
+ 36
1934
0214
+9
+ 36
1990
0716
+9
1945
+9
1954
+9
2001
+9
2010
0406
2010
1025
+ 36
1938
0201
+9
+ 36
1994
0602
+9
Sq
15
1898
+9
Sq
10
1943
0525
1943
0723
1999
+9
+9
Sq
19
1891
1947
0729
2003
Sq
24
1896
1952
0319
2008
Mega earthquakes (M ≥ 8.5) have been highlighted in Red.
Discussion and Conclusions
Overall, a 54/56 year effect was confirmed for the timing of large South East Asian earthquakes (M ≥ 7.8).
14
Significance could be produced via the 9-9-36/56 year grid as presented in Table 3. Interestingly, 9-45/56
year patterns applied to earthquakes in Japan – Kamchatka, Chile – Peru and Alaska (McMinn, 2014a,
2014b) and thus the 9-9-36/56 year grid for South East Asia was anomalous. Correlates could also be
realised for 9/56 year and 18/56 year grids for South East Asian earthquakes.
Sqs 21, 23, 25, 26, 28, 30, & 32 appeared in Grids A & B for World mega quakes (see Appendix 1), as well
as in Grids A & B for large quakes in South East Asia (see Appendix 4). Thus there was overlap between
the 54/56 year grids for these phenomena. This was a common theme around the Pacific Rim (see Table
4), because the same 56 year sequences tended to show up in the various 54./56 year grids.
Table 4
SHARED 56 YEAR SEQUENCES IN THE 54/56 YEAR SEISMIC GRIDS
Grid A
Grid B
Source
Sequence Numbers
Sequence Numbers
Appendix 1 this paper
World Mega Quakes
29, 27, 25, 23, 21
36, 34, 32, 30, 28, 26
McMinn (2011b)
South East Asia
Japan - Kamchatka
Alaska
25, 23, 21
32, 30, 28, 26
Appendix 4 this paper
29, 27, 25, 23, 21
na
Table 1, McMinn (2014a)
29 27
36, 34, 32, 30, 28, 26
Table 2, McMinn (2014a)
Chile - Peru
na
34, 32, 30, 28, 26
Table 3 McMinn (2014b)
World mega quakes recorded M ≥ 8.6, whereas the other samples around the Pacific Rim included all large
quakes M ≥ 7.8.
Source: McMinn (2014b).
Great or giant mega thrust earthquakes for Sumatra were recorded in 1797, 1833, 1861, 2004, 2005 and 2007
(Natawidjaja et al, 2009). The three earliest events fall in a 9 year subcycle (see Table 5) that also included
the 1815 Mt Tambora volcanic eruption in south central Indonesia. The latter had a Volcano Explosivity
Index (VEI) of 7 and was one of the biggest world eruptions in the last 10,000 years. NB: Natawidjaja et al
(2009) estimated the magnitudes for the 1797 and 1833 events to be M 8.5 and M 8.7-8.9 respectively. These
magnitudes were considerably higher than those given by the NGDC.
Sq
37
1797
Feb10
Table 5
SUMATRAN MEGATHRUST QUAKES IN A 9 YEAR SUBCYCLE
12.2 months beginning February 10
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
17
26
46
55
08
35
1806
1815
Apr10
1824
1833
Nov24
1842
1795
1851
Sq
44
1804
1860
1861
Feb16
Feb 10, 1797. South west Sumatra. M 8.5.
Nov 24, 1833. Sumatra. M 8.7-8.9
Feb 16, 1861. Lagundi. M 8.5.
Apr 10, 1815 Mt Tambora eruption. VEI 7.
Estimated magnitudes as given by Natawidjaja et al (2009).
Grids based on 54/56 years were exceedingly important in the timing of large earthquakes around the Pacific
Basin. These patterns were hypothesised to arise from Moon Sun tidal harmonics as proposed by McMinn
(2011a). How the Moon Sun effect activated terrestrial seismic events remained completely unknown and a
solution lies well outside prevailing paradigms in seismology.
15
Acknowledgements
I would like to thank the editor Dong Choi and the reviewers for their input in the publishing of this paper. As always
their contribution was most appreciated. I am also very indebted to the National Geophysical Data Center for producing
the extensive database upon which this paper was based. Such historic catalogues are extremely valuable in the study of
earthquake and eruption cycles over recent centuries.
References
McMinn, D., 1986. The 56 Year Cycles & Financial Crises. 15th Conference of Economists. The Economics Society of Australia.
Monash University, Melbourne. 18p. Aug 25-29.
McMinn, D., 1993. Financial Crises & The Number 56. The Australian Technical. Analysts Association Newsletter. p. 21-25.
McMinn, D., 1996. Financial Crises & The Number 56. Cycles, v. 46, no. 1, p. 11-17. August.
McMinn, D., 2002. 9/56 Year Cycle: Financial Crises. http://www.davidmcminn.com/pages/fcnum56.htm
McMinn, D., 2006. Market Timing by The Moon & The Sun. Twin Palms Publishing. 163p.
McMinn, D., 2011a. 9/56 Year Cycle: Californian Earthquakes. New Concepts In Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 58,
p. 33-44. March.
McMinn, D., 2011b. 9/56 Year Cycle: Record Earthquakes. New Concepts In Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 59, p. 88-104. June.
McMinn, D., 2011c, 9/56 Year Cycle: Hurricanes. New Concepts In Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 59, p. 105-111. June.
McMinn, D., 2011d. 9/56 Year Cycle: Earthquakes in Selected Countries. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 60,
p. 9-37. September.
McMinn, D., 2012. 9/56 Year Cycle: World Mega Volcanic Eruptions. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 64,
p. 7-18. September.
McMinn, D.. 2014a. 9/56 Year Cycle: Earthquakes in Japan, Kamchatka and Alaska. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Journal, v.
2, no. 1, p. 4 -13. March.
McMinn, D.. 2014b. 9/56 Year Cycle: Earthquakes in The Pacific Rim of South America. New Concepts in Global Tectonics
Journal, v. 2, no 2, p. 4 -13. June.
Natawidjaja, D. H et al,. 2006. Source Parameters of The Great Sumatran Megathrust Earthquakes of 1797 and 1833 Inferred from
Coral Microatolls. Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 111. Issue B6. June.
National Geophysical Data Center. The Significant Earthquake Database.
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/nndc/struts/form?t=101650&s=1&d=1
Salleh, A., 2011. Mega-quake Clusters Unlikely: Study. ABC Science. Dec 20.
http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2011/12/20/3394245.htm
US Geological Survey. Largest Earthquakes In The World Since 1900.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/10_largest_world.php
Sq 29
1901
1957
Mar09
Appendix 1
54/56 YEAR GRIDS: WORLD MEGA QUAKES Post 1870 M ≥ 8.6
National Geophysical Data Center
Grid A
7.5 months ending March 31
Sq 27
Sq 25
Sq 23
Sq 21
1893
1895
1949
1897
1951
2005
1950
Mar28
Aug15
2004
Dec26
1899
1953
2007
1952
Nov04
1955
2009
2011
Mar11
2013
Sq 36
Sq 34
Grid B
9 months ending June 10
Sq 32
Sq 30
Sq 28
1900
1902
1906
Jan31
1904
1958
1960
May22
2014
1956
2012
Apr11
Sq 26
1898
Jun05
1897
Sep20
1897
Sep21
1954
2010
Feb27
16
1908
1964
Mar28
2020
1962
2016
2018
WORLD MEGA QUAKES: 1870–2013 M ≥ 8.6
Date
Country
Mag
1897 Sep 20
Philippines: North west Mindanao, Dapitan
8.6
1897 Sep 21
Philippines: Mindanao, Zamboanga, Sulu
8.7
1898 Jun 05
Japan: Offshore east coast Honshu
8.7
1906 Jan 31
Ecuador: Offshore
8.6
1922 Nov 11
Chile: Atacama
8.7
1946 Apr 01
Alaska: Unimak Island
8.6
1950 Aug 15
India-China
8.6
1952 Nov 04
Russia: Kamchatka
9.0
1957 Mar 09
Alaska
8.6
1960 May 22
Chile: Puerto Montt, Valdiva
9.5
1964 Mar 28
Alaska
9.2
1965 Feb 04
Alaska: Aleutian Islands, Rat Islands
8.7
2004 Dec 26
Indonesia: Offshore west coast Sumatra
9.1
2005 Mar 28
Indonesia: Offshore south west Sumatra
8.6
2010 Feb 27
Chile: Maule, Concepcion, Talcahuano
8.8
2011 Mar 11
Japan: Offshore north east Honshu
9.0
2012 Apr11
Indonesia: Offshore north west coast Sumatra
8.6
In Grids A & B, the 56 year sequences are separated by intervals of 54 years on the horizontal.
Mega quakes occurring in South East Asia (M ≥ 8.6) have been highlighted in Red.
All other World mega quakes M ≥ 8.6 occurring in Girds A and B have been highlighted in Blue.
The NGDC listed some 17 world mega quakes (M ≥ 8.6) since 1870, of which 14 showed up in Grids A & B. This compared
with an expected 3.3.
All five post 1900 mega quakes in Grid B occurred in the four months ending May 25.
Source: McMinn, 2011b.
Appendix 2
MAJOR EARTHQUAKES IN INDONESIA Post 1700. M ≥ 7.8
YYYY
MM
DD
Location
M
1797
2
10
INDONESIA: SW. SUMATRA
8.0
1818
11
8
INDONESIA: SUMBAWA ISLAND
8.5
1833
11
24
INDONESIA: SUMATRA: BENGKULU
8.3
1852
11
25
INDONESIA: MALUKU: BANDANAIRA
8.3
1861
2
16
INDONESIA: LAGUNDI, SIMUK, TELLO I
8.5
1864
5
23
INDONESIA: IRIAN JAYA
7.8
1889
9
6
INDONESIA: N. MOLUCCAS ISLANDS
8.0
1899
9
29
INDONESIA: BANDA SEA
7.8
1900
10
7
INDONESIA: NW. IRIAN JAYA
7.8
1903
2
27
INDONESIA: S OF JAVA
8.1
1905
1
22
INDONESIA: MINAHASSA PENINSULA
8.4
1907
1
4
INDONESIA: NW SUMATRA
7.8
1907
6
25
INDONESIA: DJAILOLO GILOLO
7.9
1913
3
14
INDONESIA: SANGIHE ISLAND
7.8
1914
5
26
8.1
1916
1
13
8.1
1916
1
13
8.1
1917
8
30
7.8
1918
11
18
8.1
1926
10
26
INDONESIA: NEW GUINEA: IRIAN JAYA
7.9
1935
12
28
INDONESIA: N SUMATRA.
7.9
17
1938
2
1
INDONESIA: NEW GUINEA
8.5
1939
12
21
INDONESIA: CENTRTAL SULAWESI
8.0
1943
7
23
INDONESIA: JAVA: JOGYAKARTA
8.1
1948
3
1
INDONESIA: SERAM
7.9
1950
11
2
8.1
1963
11
4
8.3
1971
1
10
8.1
1972
6
11
INDONESIA: CELEBES SEA
7.8
1977
8
19
INDONESIA: SUNDA ISLANDS
8.0
1979
9
12
7.9
1992
12
12
INDONESIA: FLORES REGION, MAUMERE, BABI
7.8
1994
6
2
INDONESIA: JAVA
7.8
1996
1
1
INDONESIA: SULAWESI
7.9
1996
2
17
8.2
2000
6
4
INDONESIA: SUMATRA: BENGKULU, ENGGANO
7.9
2004
12
26
INDONESIA: SUMATRA: OFF WEST COAST
9.1
2005
3
28
INDONESIA: SUMATERA: SW
8.6
2007
9
12
INDONESIA: SUMATRA
8.4
2007
9
12
INDONESIA: SUMATRA
7.9
2010
4
6
INDONESIA: SUMATRA
7.8
2010
10
25
INDONESIA: SUMATRA
7.8
2012
4
11
INDONESIA: N SUMATRA: OFF WEST COAST
8.6
2012
4
11
INDONESIA: N SUMATRA: OFF WEST COAST
8.2
1897
5
13
PHILIPPINES: MASBATE ISLAND
7.9
1897
8
15
PHILIPPINES: LUZON: ILOCOS SUR
7.9
1897
9
20
PHILIPPINES: NW MINDANAO: DAPITAN
8.6
1897
9
21
PHILIPPINES: MINDANAO, ZAMBOANGA, SULU
8.7
1897
10
18
PHILIPPINES: NORTHERN SAMAR
8.1
1897
10
20
PHILIPPINES: NORTHERN SAMAR
7.9
1901
12
14
PHILIPPINES: LUZON
7.8
1903
12
28
PHILIPPINES: DAVAO GULF
7.8
1911
7
12
PHILIPPINES: MINDANAO: TALACOGON
7.8
1918
8
15
PHILIPPINES: MINDANAO: COTABATO
8.3
1924
4
14
PHILIPPINES: E MINDANAO: MATI,SURIGA
8.3
1934
2
14
PHILIPPINES: LUZON
7.9
1942
4
8
PHILIPPINES: MINDORO
7.8
1943
5
25
PHILIPPINES: E OF
8.1
1948
1
24
PHILIPPINES: PANAY, ILOILO CITY, ANTIQUE
8.3
1951
3
19
PHILIPPINES:
7.8
1952
3
19
PHILIPPINES: BUTUAN
7.8
1976
8
16
PHILIPPINES: MINDANAO
8.0
1990
7
16
PHILIPPINES: BAGUIO, CABANATUAN
7.8
1912
5
23
MYANMAR: MANDALAY
8.0
1946
9
12
MYANMAR:
7.8
18
1881
12
31
INDIA: ANDAMAN I, NICOBAR I
7.9
1897
6
12
INDIA: ASSAM
8.0
1947
7
29
INDIA-CHINA
7.9
1950
8
15
INDIA-CHINA
8.6
1833
9
6
CHINA: YUNNAN PROVINCE
8.0
1970
1
4
CHINA: YUNNAN PROVINCE; VIETNAM: HANOI
7.8
Source: National Geophysical Data Center.
Appendix 3
9/56 YEAR SEISMIC CYCLE: SOUTH EAST ASIA Post 1790 M ≥ 7.8 m
Grid A
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
05
14
23
32
41
50
03
12
21
Sq
34
Sq
43
Sq
52
1794
1803
1812
1821
1830
1839
1850
1859
1868
1877
1886
1895
1906
1915
1924
0414
1933
1942
0408
1951
0319
1962
1971
0110
1980
1989
1998
2007
0912
2007
0912
2016
Sq
01
Sq
10
Sq
19
Sq
28
Sq
37
Sq
46
1797
0210
2018
Sq
48
Sq
30
1790
1846
1902
1901
1214
1958
Sq
39
1799
1855
1911
0712
1792
1848
1801
1857
1810
1866
1819
1875
1828
1884
1837
1893
1904
1903
1228
1960
1913
0314
1922
1931
1949
1969
1978
1987
1940
1939
1221
1996
0101
1996
0217
2005
0328
2004
1226
2014
Sq
55
Sq
08
Sq
17
Sq
26
1806
1815
1824
1833
0906
1833
1124
1889
0906
1842
Sq
35
1795
1851
Sq
44
1804
1860
Sq
53
1813
1869
1907
0104
1907
0625
1963
1104
1916
0116
1916
0116
1972
0611
1925
Sq
02
1818
1108
1874
1930
Sq
11
1827
1986
1995
Grid B
1808
1817
1826
1835
1844
1853
1852
1125
1862
1871
1880
1898
1864
0523
1873
1881
1882
1231
1891
1900
1007
1909
1927
1936
1935
1228
1945
1954
1920
1929
1938
0201
1947
0729
1956
1965
1918
0815
1918
1118
1974
1983
1992
2001
2010
0406
2010
1025
2019
1976
0816
1985
1994
0602
2003
2012
0411
2012
0411
2021
Sq
06
Sq
15
Sq
24
Sq
33
Sq
42
Sq
51
Sq
04
Sq
13
Sq
22
Sq
31
1791
Sq
40
1800
Sq
49
1809
1822
1831
1840
1793
1849
1802
1858
1811
1867
1820
1876
1829
1885
1838
1894
1887
1896
1905
0122
1914
0526
1923
1932
1941
1950
0815
1950
1102
1856
1912
0523
1968
1865
1921
1878
1847
1903
0227
1959
1967
1981
Grid C
1977
0819
1883
1939
19
1934
0214
1990
0716
1943
0525
1943
0723
1999
1952
0319
1961
2008
2017
Sq
29
Sq
38
Sq
20
1970
0104
1979
0912
1988
Sq
47
Sq
56
Sq
09
Sq
18
1798
1807
1816
1825
1834
1843
1845
1854
1863
1872
1881
1890
1892
1901
1910
1919
1928
1937
1946
0912
2002
Sq
25
1897
May13
1897
Jun12
1897
Aug15
1897
Sep 20
1897
Sep 21
1897
Oct18
1897
Oct20
1953
2006
2015
Sq
36
1796
1852
Sq
45
1805
1861
0216
Sq
54
1814
1870
Sq
07
1823
1879
Sq
16
1832
1888
1899
0929
1955
1908
1917
0830
1973
1926
1026
1982
1935
1944
1991
2000
0604
2011
2020
Grid D
1836
1948
1957
1966
1975
1984
1993
0124
1992
1948
1212
0301
2004
2013
2022
Dates expressed as YYYYMMDD.
1997
Sq
27
1964
Sq
25
1841
1897
0513
1897
0612
1897
0815
1897
0920
1897
0921
1897
1018
1897
1020
1953
2009
Appendix 4
54/56 YEAR SEISMIC GRIDS: SOUTH EAST ASIA Post 1885 M ≥ 7.8 m
Grid A
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
Sq
23
21
19
17
15
1887
1889
1943
Sep06
May25
1943
Jul23
1891
1945
1999
1893
2001
1947
Jul29
1895
1949
2003
1951
2005
Mar19
Mar28
2004
Dec26
2007
Sep12
2007
Sep12
2009
Sq
32
Sq
30
Sq
28
Grid B
Sq
26
Sq
24
Sq
22
1894
Sq
20
1892
1948
Jan24
20
1896
1898
1902
1901
Dec14
1904
1903
Dec28
1958
1960
2016
2014
Sq
18
Sq
16
1900
Oct07
1956
1954
1952
Mar19
2008
1950
Aug15
1950
Nov02
2006
1948
Mar01
2004
2010
Apr06
2010
Oct25
2012
Apr11
2012
Apr11
Sq
14
1942
Apr08
1944
1998
1946
2000
0912
Jun04
2002
Mega quakes (M ≥ 8.5) have been highlighted in Red.
Grid C
Sq
12
1940
1939
Dec21
1996
Jan01
1996
Feb17
Sq
10
1938
Feb01
1994
Jan02
Sq
08
1936
1935
Dec28
1992
Sq
06
1934
Feb14
1990
Jul16
21
EARTHQUAKES OCCUR VERY CLOSE TO EITHER 06:00 OR 18:00
LUNAR LOCAL TIME
Giovanni P. GREGORI
IDASC (Istituto di Acustica e Sensoristica O. M. Corbino (CNR) – Roma (Italy)
IEVPC (International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center) – Orlando (Florida, USA)
Giovanni.gregori@idasc.cnr.it; giovanni.gregori@alice.it
Abstract: If an earthquake (EQ) has to occur at some location and on some day, almost always it happens during either
one of two time intervals close either to 06:00 or to 18:00 LLT (lunar local time). This law applies to ∼98% of case
histories. The procedures are presented that are suited to assess the exact duration of the time lag with a 95% (or higher)
confidence limit.
Keywords: Earthquake’s time instant, forecast, lunar local time, crust anisotropy, tidal stress vs. Moon’s coordinates
Introduction
K
olvankar (2011) reported about a systematic analysis by studying over 5,000 seismic events with a
magnitude range 2-10, based on the global seismic catalogue NEIC-USGS. He distinguished separate
patterns for different ranges of periods, magnitudes, depths, latitudes and longitudes. He always found a
common “law” shared by every subset of events, independent of magnitude, depth, latitude, and time, and
displaying only a regular dependence on the longitude ϕ.
He considered the following angles (unless differently stated, all angles are counter-clockwise):
•
SEM (Sun – EQ’s epicenter - Moon)
•
GMT
•
longitude ϕ
•
EMD (EQ epicenter - Moon distance); in addition, let us here also indicate by
•
LT the local time, and by
•
LLT the local lunar time
The definitions of LT and of LLT are analogous to each other, the difference being that the point at Earth’s
surface with 12:00:00 LT observes the Sun at its maximum elevation, while the point with 12:00:00 LLT
observes the Moon at its maximum elevation above the horizon.
Note that figure 2 in Kolvankar (2011) incorrectly indicates (Kolvankar, private communication, 2015) a
clockwise direction of SEM, while his whole analysis was carried out upon considering counter-clockwise
SEM.
Kolvankar (2011) shows that 98% of all EQs satisfy a linear relationship:
(1)
GMT = EMD + SEM + const
that he shows is satisfied in different regions (one example is here shown in Figure 2), everyone
characterized by approximately the same longitude. Upon considering the 3rd and the last column of table 1
of Kolvankar (2011), it is found that (1) is:
(2)
GMT = EMD + SEM - ϕ
that can be solved (see Figure 1) to get:
(3)
GMT + ϕ = LT = EMD + SEM
(4)
LLT = LT - SEM = EMD
That is, owing to (4), the physical meaning of the empirical relation (2) is that 98% of all EQs happen very
close to LLT = 06 or LLT = 18 (hours of lunar local time).
22
This result seems physically plausible as the lunar tidal deformation is maximum at LLT = 12:00 or LLT =
00:00, but the time derivative of the deformation is maximum at LLT = 06:00 or LLT = 18:00, and the
maximum stress on the crust occurs when the time-gradient is maximum of the deformation.
Figure 1. Some relations between angles of time. (a) and (b) are formal definitions, (c) is an empirical evidence. See
text.
Figure 2. "Three earthquake plots for (EMD + SEM) vs. GMT timings for latitude range -35° to -25° and longitude
range -180° to -170° for three different twelve-years period: 1973-1984, 1985-1996, and 1997-2008. The earthquakes
occupy the same strip in these plots and there are no time-dependent variations." Note in the first plot [top left] that
very few events strike along lines roughly perpendicular to the main trend. See text. Figure modified and captions after
Kolvankar (2011).
Among the several Kolvankar’s (2011) plots, only figure 2 is here reported, which refers to the Kermadec
trench area. Figure 2a [top row, left diagram] is peculiar, as it displays some lesser amount of events that
strike along a few trends roughly perpendicular to the law (2). They are here indicated by a green shading,
while the orange shading denotes tectonic features and active faults located at some comparatively slightly
23
different longitude ϕ. But, the anomalous (light green) feature is observed only during some epoch of time,
not during others. This anomaly is probably associated with a temporal activation of some fault. Therefore
this trend is likely to be explained in terms of a temporary change of the local rheology along that fault. But,
this item has to be better inspected in the future upon considering the detailed location of epicentres relative
to their respective local tectonic setting.
The general result (2) has a most important application. Indeed, whenever it will be feasible by some method
to issue an alert for an eventual possible EQ which can be reasonably expected to hit some given area, by (4)
it is possible to know that, during the 24 hours of every given day - and at every given site - the shock can
occur, with 98% certainty, only during two time windows, each one of some very brief total lag. But there is
a need to assess, with an error bar that specifies e.g. at the 95% confidence limit, the exact duration of either
one of these two time lags, which are close to 06:00 or to 18:00 LLT, respectively, during which an EQ
ought to occur.
Kolvankar (private communication, 2015) claims that when he plotted only events referred to some small
area, no similar clear alignment (2) is found. This is the likely consequence of the approximation (Kolvankar,
2011a) he used in his computation of the location of the epicentre with respect to Moon’s position.
Indeed, suppose e.g. to use a magnifying glass and to expand some small section of either one of
Kolvankar’s plots (e.g. of figure 2). Plot on a full page this lesser detail of the former large Kolvankar’s plot,
and use expanded units on both coordinate axes: the points that in the former plot appear approximately
closely aligned along the line (2) will appear badly scattered. That is, the disturbance – with respect to the
linear trend - that is originated by the approximations is negligible in Kolvankar’s plots, while it is no more
negligible in every enlarged lesser fraction of it.
Therefore we have to reduce the scatter of the points in the Kolvankar’s plots in order to improve the
precision of the determination of the crucial time lag for seismic alert.
This is the purpose of the present short paper, where algorithms and procedures for data handling are
discussed in detail, although no direct application has as yet been implemented.
A precise computation – A first improvement can be achieved by carrying out a direct astronomical
computation for every seismic event, which happens with any given magnitude, location and time. That is,
there is no need to separate seismic events that hit different areas.
The computation of the Moon’s orbit is known, hence also the instant position of the exact point at Earth’s
surface where the Moon is located right at the zenith (let us call this point the “sublunar point”, SLP). This
information derives from some lengthy astronomical computation. Programs and subroutines prepared by
professional astronomers are available on the web. Therefore SEM is known (refer to Figure 1b).
Since for every EQ considered alone we know LT and SEM, also LLT=LT-SEM is known as per figure 1b.
Therefore, it is possible to compute the LLT for every EQ. A histogram can thus be drawn that includes all
5,000 (or more) EQ of some world catalogue, independent of epicentre location and time, e.g. with
magnitude above some given threshold etc.
According to the Kolvankar’s plots, two Gaussian distributions are to be expected in this histogram, centred,
respectively, at 06:00 and at 18:00 LLT. The width of each one if these two Gaussian distributions envisages
its respective rms deviation: the 95% confidence limit for the probability of occurrence of a possible EQ
around either 06:00 or 18:00 LLT is twice this observed rms deviation (a similar standard definition can
provide with the time lag at every larger confidence limit).
This estimate, however, can be even better improved, physically, upon considering the instant latitudinal
location of the Moon.
Indeed, consider that the Moon’s orbit lies very close to the ecliptic plane (at an angle ∼5.1°), rather than
close to the Earth’s equatorial plane such as it occurs for the satellite of other planets of the Solar System.
Hence, during one full 24 hour daily rotation of the Earth, the Moon’s latitude is almost constant, with
respect to the Earth’s equator, while the SLP runs along one parallel at the Earth’s surface. Since the tilt of
the Earth’s equatorial plane is ∼23.4°, the SLP moves inside a latitudinal belt of ∼±28.5°.
24
The maximum lunar tidal deformation occurs at the SLP, and also at it antipodal point ASLP, and it displays
a spatial trend that can be approximately considered with cylindrical symmetry around the SLP-ASLP axis.
The deviation from cylindrical symmetry is associated with local tectonic heterogeneities.
The maximum lunar tidal crustal stress, however, occurs where the time derivative is maximum of crustal
deformation. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect that the law (2) – and consequently also the width of the
two aforementioned Gaussian distributions – displays some dependence on the latitude of the SLP at every
instant of time.
This possible - and also likely - effect can be easily taken into account by computing the angle 𝜗𝜗𝐸𝐸𝑀𝑀 at Earth’s
surface between the EQ epicentre and SLP: when this angle 𝜗𝜗𝐸𝐸𝑀𝑀 is zero, the hypothetical EQ occurs right at
the SLP, and when it is 180° the hypothetical EQ occurs at ASLP.
The computation of this angle 𝜗𝜗𝐸𝐸𝑀𝑀 is straightforward by means of the algorithm explained in the Appendix: it
deals with the transformation of the usual coordinates (latitude and longitude) on every given spherical
surface of some given and pre-chosen radius.
Consider any couple of spherical coordinate systems of this kind, one with North pole at a point A, and the
(𝐴𝐴)
other with North pole at a point B. Every given point P has coordinates, i.e. latitude and longitude, 𝜆𝜆𝑃𝑃 and
(𝐴𝐴)
(𝐵𝐵)
(𝐵𝐵)
𝜑𝜑𝑃𝑃 in system "A" and 𝜆𝜆𝑃𝑃 and 𝜑𝜑𝑃𝑃 in system "B", respectively. It is possible to compute the coordinates
in either one system “A” or “B” when we know the P coordinates in the other system.
The aforementioned computation for every EQ event needs to start from the usual geographical latitude and
longitude, where the North pole is very close to the Pole Star etc. (we can call this the “G” system, where G
is for Greenwich). The second coordinate system has pole at the SLP, and can be called system “M” (for
Moon).
The symbol for the angle 𝜗𝜗𝐸𝐸𝑀𝑀 derives from the fact that 𝜗𝜗 = 90° − 𝜆𝜆 is a colatitude that, as usual, is defined
as the complementary angle of the latitude 𝜆𝜆, while the epicentre is denoted by E, and M denotes the “M”
system.
It is thus possible to evaluate the width of either one of the two aforementioned Gaussian distributions, and
to plot this width as a function of 𝜗𝜗𝐸𝐸𝑀𝑀 .
In principle, an additional eventual refinement is not here considered in detail, as at present it is premature. It
could be associated, perhaps, with the additional role played by the solar tide. It is certainly less important
than the effect of the lunar tide. If also the solar tide plays a role, each aforementioned width of the Gaussian
distribution ought to depend on 𝜗𝜗𝐸𝐸𝑀𝑀 and, up to some smaller extent, also on LT. But, this possibility has to be
assessed a posteriori, and it could result to be different depending on the local tectonic setting. That is, this
possibility is to be inspected empirically.
By this, for every given location and for every given date, it is possible to specify the precise duration - at
95% (or higher) confidence limit - of the time lag around either 06:00 or 18:00 LLT that constraints the
possible occurrence of an eventual EQ.
Appendix - 3D coordinate transformations in Euclidean space
In the present appendix all angles are in radians. A coordinate system is said to be either Cartesian (also
called rectangular) or spherical. When it is Cartesian, it is right handed, with axes 𝑥𝑥�, 𝑦𝑦� and 𝑧𝑧̂ , or 𝑥𝑥�1 , 𝑥𝑥�2 , and
𝜋𝜋
𝑥𝑥�3 . When it is spherical, the coordinates are: r for radial distance; 𝜆𝜆 for latitude or 𝜗𝜗 = − 𝜆𝜆 for colatitude
𝜋𝜋
𝜋𝜋
2
(also called polar distance), being – ≤ 𝜆𝜆 ≤ + and 0 ≤ 𝜗𝜗 ≤ 𝜋𝜋; and in addition 𝜑𝜑 longitude, which is here
2
2
conventionally assumed to be always reckoned clockwise as seen by an observed located at the "positive" or
𝜋𝜋
"North" pole (i.e. at the pole defined by 𝜆𝜆 = or 𝜗𝜗 = 0).
2
Hence, in order to avoid confusion, the term “clocklongitude“ is here used, while "longitude" is supposed
25
counterclockwise. In standard geographic coordinates it is customary to use different terms and to distinguish
explicitly west-longitude or east-longitude. In addition, as a simple mnemonic rule, the term “local time”
refers to a longitude, while “hour angle” refers to a clocklongitude.
Consider the transformation between any two given coordinate systems.
One of the best known case histories of this kind is concerned with a spherical surface of given radius. This
is an elementary topic. The algorithms of spherical trigonometry are involved, which date back to the
Alexandrinian Greeks (mainly Hypparcus of Nicea [II century BC], Ptolemty [Claudius Ptolemaeus, AD
100-168 or 178], Menelaus [∼AD 98]; e.g. Kline, 1972).
The problem is not elementary, maybe, when dealing with rotations between two spherical coordinate
systems, when the classical Euler angles ought to be used, and substantially more involved algorithms are
implied suited to define a more general approach. This can be treated either by matrix algebra (e.g.
Gantmacher, 1959 and 1959a, or Lanczos, 1956 and 1961), or by tensor calculus (e.g. Finzi and Pastori,
1961), or by group theory (e.g. Wigner, 1959, or Naïmark, 1962, or Gel'fand et al., 1963). All these
algorithms, however, are not here of concern.
Only a short practical "guide" is here given. It refers to easy transformation formulas, whereby two spherical
systems can be transformed into each other simply by knowing three angles: the latitude of each polar
direction referred to the other frame of reference - i.e. their respective latitude, and relative clocklongitudes
[i.e. of pole (2) in system (1), and of pole (1) in system (2)]. That is, only 3 degrees of freedom are required
to define a new coordinate frame (like the 3 Euler's angles). Recall, however, that Russell (1971), instead,
prefers to use matrix formalism.
Therefore, let us simply consider a change of frame of reference over a given spherical surface of fixed
radius. Suppose that we deal with a reference system "1" having North pole at point "(1)" (figures 3 and 4),
and a reference frame "2", having North pole at a point "(2)". Latitude, colatitude, and docklongitude are
called 𝜆𝜆1 , 𝜗𝜗1 and 𝜑𝜑1 in system (1), and 𝜆𝜆2 , 𝜗𝜗2 and 𝜑𝜑2 in system "2 ", respectively. Thus, point "(2)" has in
(2)
(2)
(2)
(1)
(1)
system "1 " coordinates 𝜆𝜆1 , 𝜗𝜗1 and 𝜑𝜑1 , while point "(1)" has in system "2 " coordinates 𝜆𝜆2 , 𝜗𝜗2 and
(1)
(2)
(2)
(1)
𝜑𝜑2 . Given any arbitrary point P of coordinates 𝜆𝜆 1 and 𝜑𝜑1 , in system "1 ", and given 𝜆𝜆1 , 𝜑𝜑1 and 𝜑𝜑2 , it
is possible to evaluate 𝜆𝜆2 and 𝜑𝜑2 , which are the coordinates of P in system "2".
The formulas for this transformation are as follows. Apply the Euler formula to the spherical triangle (1)(2)P,
and the sinus formula, and get:
(A.1)
(A.2)
(2)
sin 𝜆𝜆2 = sin 𝜆𝜆1
(2)
sin 𝜆𝜆1 + cos 𝜆𝜆1
sin 𝜑𝜑2 = −
cos 𝜆𝜆1
cos 𝜆𝜆2
(2)
cos 𝜆𝜆1 cos (𝜑𝜑1 − 𝜑𝜑1 )
(2)
sin (𝜑𝜑1 − 𝜑𝜑1 )
26
Figure 3. Computation of the clocklongitude ϕ2 when 180° ≤ ϕ1 -
Figure 4. Computation of the clocklongitude ϕ2 when 0° ≤ ϕ1 -
ϕ 1(2 )
ϕ 1(2 )
≤ 360°. See text.
≤ 180°. See text.
that solves the problem. This formulation can be found e.g. in Chamberlain (1961, p. 66). A different
procedure was used by McNish (1936) and Chapman and Bartels (1940, p. 646). This same problem was
considered also by Schmidt (1918 and 1926) and by Hunten (1958).
𝜋𝜋
Some care has to be taken when evaluating 𝜆𝜆2 and 𝜑𝜑2 from (A.1) and (A.2). In fact, since 0 ≤ |𝜆𝜆| ≤ , no
2
ambiguity is raised by (A.1) when evaluating 𝜆𝜆2 while a somewhat more lengthy analysis is needed for
(A.2). In the case of Figure 3 it is:
(A.3)
the angle at pole (2) is:
(2)
𝜋𝜋 ≤ 𝜑𝜑1 − 𝜑𝜑1
≤ 2𝜋𝜋
27
(1)
(1)
�𝜑𝜑2 − 𝜑𝜑2 � = +(𝜑𝜑2 − 𝜑𝜑2 )
(A.4)
or
(1)
𝜑𝜑2 − 𝜑𝜑2
(A.5)
while in the case of figure 4 it is:
≥0
(2)
0 ≤ 𝜑𝜑1 − 𝜑𝜑1
(A.6) )
the angle at pole (2) is:
≤ 𝜋𝜋
(1)
(1)
�𝜑𝜑2 − 𝜑𝜑2 � = − (𝜑𝜑2 − 𝜑𝜑2 )
(A.7)
or
(1)
(A.8)
≤0
(1)
Consider the case of Figure 3. Since it is known that sin( 𝜑𝜑2 − 𝜑𝜑2 ) ≥ 0 , there is need to assess whether
𝜋𝜋
𝜋𝜋
3𝜋𝜋
(1)
(1)
(2)
𝜑𝜑2 − 𝜑𝜑2 ≤ , or 𝜑𝜑2 − 𝜑𝜑2 > , or, When 𝜑𝜑1 − 𝜑𝜑1 ≤ it is:
2
(A.9)
2
(2)
(1)
3𝜋𝜋
≤
2
𝜋𝜋
2
and when 𝜑𝜑1 − 𝜑𝜑1 > draw the great circle from P perpendicular to the great circle drawn through
2
points (1) and (2) and consider the arc M shown in figure 3. It is:
(2)
tan 𝑀𝑀 = cot 𝜆𝜆1 cos(𝜑𝜑1 − 𝜑𝜑1 )
(A.10)
being:
0 ≤ 𝑀𝑀 ≤ 𝜋𝜋
(A.11)
If
𝑀𝑀 ≤
(A.12)
𝑀𝑀 >
(A.13)
𝜋𝜋
2
𝜋𝜋
2
(2)
it is
(2)
it is
− 𝜆𝜆1
− 𝜆𝜆1
(1)
(1)
≤
𝜑𝜑2 − 𝜑𝜑2 >
𝜋𝜋
2
𝜋𝜋
2
This method works as long as the perpendicular is uniquely drawn from P to the great circle through points
(1) and (2). This always occurs except when the triangle (1)(2)P has three right angles. In this case it can be
easily shown that:
(A.14)
(2)
(1)
− �𝜑𝜑1 − 𝜑𝜑1 � ≡ + �𝜑𝜑2 − 𝜑𝜑2 � ≡
Consider the case of figure 4. From (A.8) it follows:
(2)
(A.15)
(A.16)
when
(2)
(2)
and when 𝜑𝜑1 − 𝜑𝜑1
<
𝜋𝜋
2
− 𝜋𝜋 ≤ 𝜑𝜑1 − 𝜑𝜑1
≥
𝜋𝜋
2
it is
𝜋𝜋
2
≤0
−
− 𝜆𝜆1 ≡
𝜋𝜋
2
𝜋𝜋
2
− 𝜆𝜆2 ≡
(2)
≤ 𝜑𝜑1 − 𝜑𝜑1
≤0
𝜋𝜋
2
consider again the arc M given by (A.10) and (A.11). It is:
28
(A.17)
when
(A.18)
when
𝑀𝑀 ≤
𝑀𝑀 >
that fully solves the problem.
𝜋𝜋
2
𝜋𝜋
2
(2)
it is
(2)
it is
− 𝜆𝜆1
− 𝜆𝜆1
−
𝜋𝜋
2
(1)
≤ 𝜑𝜑2 − 𝜑𝜑2 ≤ 0
(1)
− 𝜋𝜋 ≤ 𝜑𝜑2 − 𝜑𝜑2 ≤ −
𝜋𝜋
2
But, one can also more simply apply the Euler formula to the spherical triangle (1)(2)P in either figure 3 or
figure 4, and get:
(A.19)
(1)
cos �𝜑𝜑2 − 𝜑𝜑2 � =
(2)
sin 𝜆𝜆1 − sin 𝜆𝜆2 sin 𝜆𝜆1
(2)
cos 𝜆𝜆2 cos 𝜆𝜆1
Note that, while implementing the computing software, a well-known practical rule, which is suited to avoid
the ±𝜋𝜋 uncertainty while evaluating an angle from its arctangent, is to refer to both its known values of sine
and cosine.
References
Chamberlain, Joseph W., 1961. Physics of the aurora and airglow. 704 pp., Academic Press, New York.
Chapman, Sydney, and Julius Bartels, 1940. Geomagnetism. 2 vol., 1049 pp., Oxford Univ. Press, (Clarendon), London
and New York.
Finzi, Bruno, and Maria Pastori, 1951 and 1961. Calcolo tensoriale ed applicazioni, (I ed., 1951), 427 pp. (II ed., 1961),
510 pp., Zanichelli Editore, Bologna.
Gantmacher, F. R., 1959. The theory of matrices. Vol. 1, 374 pp., and vol. 2, 276 pp., translated by K. A. Hirsch,
Chelsea Publ. Co., New York.
Gantmacher, F. R., 1959a. Applications of the theory of matrices. 317 pp., translated by J. L. Brenner, D. W. Bushaw
and S. Evanusa, Interscience Publishers, Inc., New York etc.
Gel'fand, I. M., R. A. Minlos, and Z. Ya. Shapiro, 1958, 1963. Representations of the rotation and Lorentz groups and
their applications, 366 pp., Pergamon Press, Oxford, etc. First published in Russian by Fizmatgiz in 1958.
Hunten, Donald M., 1958. A nomogram for solving spherical triangles, Scientific Report No. Br-8, Phys. Dept. Univ.
Saskachewan, Saskatoon, Sask., Canada.
Kline, Morris, 1972. Mathematical thought from ancient to modern times. 1238 pp., Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford and
New York.
Kolvankar, Vinayak G., 2011. Sun, Moon and earthquakes, New Conc. Global Tect. Newslett., no. 60, p. 50-66.
Kolvankar, Vinayak G., 2011a. Methodology to check correlation between Earth tide and earthquakes, New Conc.
Global Tect. Newslett., no. 61, p. 108-111.
Lanczos, C., 1956. Applied analysis. 539 pp., Prentice Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N.J. (USA).
Lanczos, C., 1961. Linear differential operators. 564 pp., Van Nostrand Company Limited, London etc.
McNish, A. G., 1936. Geomagnetic coordinates for the entire Earth, Terr. Magn. Atmos. Electr., v. 41, no. 1, p.37–43;
doi: 10.1029/TE041i001p00037.
Naïmark, M. A., 1962. Les représentations linéaires du groupe de Lorentz, 371 pp., Dunod, Paris. Originally published
in Russian by ‘‘Les Editions d'Etat de Litérature physico-mathématique’‘, Moscow.
Russell, Christofer T., 1971. Geophysical coordinate transformations, Cosmic Electrodynamics, 2, 184-196.
Schmidt, Adolf, 1903-1928. Archiv des Erdmagnetismus (Herausgegeben von A. Schmidt). Heft 1-4 (1903-1926)
contained in Band I. Heft 5, 6 and 7 appeared in Abhandlungen des Preuss. Meteorol. Inst. Berlin, J. Springer,
Berlin: Heft 5 as vol. 8, no. 2 (Veroeff. Nr. 332, 1925), Heft 6 as vol. 8, no. 11 (Veroeff. Nr. 354, 1927), Heft 7 as
vol. 9, no. 1 (Veroeff. Nr. 357, 1928).
Schmidt, Adolf, 1918. Geomagnetische Koordinaten. In Schmidt (1903-1928), Heft 5 (or 3 ?), p. 14-.
Schmidt, Adolf, 1926. [Tables of the geomagnetic coordinates for various observatories]. In Schmidt (1903-1928), Heft
4, pp. 35-38.
Wigner, Eugene P., 1959. Group theory and its applications to the quantum mechanics of atomic spectra, 372 pp.,
Academic Press, New York etc.
29
A LUNAR “MOULD” OF THE EARTH’S TECTONICS: FOUR
TERRESTRIAL OCEANS AND FOUR LUNAR BASINS ARE DERIVATIVE
OF ONE WAVE TECTONIC PROCESS
Gennady G. KOCHEMASOV
Kochem.36@mail.ru
Abstract: Two highly different cosmic bodies – Earth and Moon – have nevertheless comparable global tectonics.
Terrestrial tectonics of four oceans (2πR-, πR-, πR/2- structures) are mimicked by four lunar basins of the same relative
sizes. Moreover, their layouts are comparable. All together these indicate at a common structuring process that is
identified as the wave structuring. Any warping body standing waves originate from their movement in keplerian noncircular but elliptical or parabolic orbits. Another planet-satellite pair in the inner Solar system – Mars-Phobos –
confirms this conclusion.
Keywords: Earth-Moon comparison, wave tectonics, terrestrial oceans, lunar basins, Mars-Phobos parallel
Introduction
A
main point of the wave planetology (Kochemasov, 1992-2014) concerns planetary structures and
orbits. “Orbits make structures” – this three-word universal rule explains how identical or comparable
tectonic features appear on drastically different cosmic bodies of various classes (Sun, planets, satellites,
asteroids, comets). What unite them is their movement in non-circular keplerian orbits and rotation.
Periodically changing cosmic accelerations provoke warping waves in bodies. They acquire standing
character and four (ortho- and diagonal) interfering directions. Due to this all bodies have regularly disposed
uplifting, subsiding and neutral tectonic blocks. Their sizes depend on lengths of warping waves presenting a
harmonic row. The row starts with the fundamental wave – wave 1 or 2πR-wave dividing any body in two
halves: uplifted and the antipodal subsided. The wave overtones (wave 2 or πR and further along harmonics)
produce also superimposed regular smaller tectonic features which complicate the principal 2πR-tectonics.
Fundamental wave tectonics also leave traces of individual tectonic granules with sizes which are inversely
proportional to bodies’ orbital frequencies: larger frequency smaller granule and, vice versa, smaller
frequency larger granule (Kochemasov, 1992- 1999). Earth and Moon sharing the same circumsolar orbit
reveal comparable planetary scale tectonic features. The same concerns another pair in the inner solar
system: Mars – Phobos.
Observations and results
Global geomorphologic (relief) maps of Earth and Moon (Figs. 1 and 2) show remarkable sequences of
comparable tectonic features. The Pacific Ocean and the Oceanus Procellarum mark spreading over
hemispheres with largest depressions (2πR-structures). Just a year ago the Procellarum was considered a
random impact feature and this notion hindered real scientific correlation between the most important
terrestrial and lunar tectonic features. The GRAIL project, a very detailed gravimetric survey (AndrewsHanna et al., 2014a, b; Zuber et al., 2013), allowed to see the Procellarum Basin to be not an impact but a
regular tectonic feature. A square gravimetric outlines of the Basin played an important role in understanding
real situation (Andrews-Hanna et al., 2014a & b) though the square outlines of the Basin were seen also
before in topographic maps and images of the satellite in various wavelengths. Not less important for
deciphering real tectonics is the presence in both depressions wide elevated areas with rocks enriched with
alkalis and radioactive elements – Pacific “Superswell” and the lunar PKT terrain (Procellarum KREEP
Terrain) (Kochemasov, 2014). The presence in the centers of both depressions of the highest volcanic
edifices – the Hawaii (Mauna Kea) and Crater Copernicus - is also very noteworthy. Both features are related
with the depressions bordered by significant chains of mountains: underwater ridges Hawaiian – NW Pacific
and Carpathians – Caucasus.
30 NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March 2015. www.ncgt.org Fig. 1. Earth's oceans
Fig. 2. Topography of the Moon
Fig. 2. Topography of the Moon
Fig. 3. Schematic sizes and relative dispositions of terrestrial (above) and lunar wave born tectonic features. Pacific
Ocean and Procellarum Ocean on the right - 2πR structures. Indian Ocean and SPA Basin on the left– πR structures.
Malay Archipelago and Mare Orientale at the center – πR/2 structures. Equators (axis of rotation) positions at present
(Earth) and in ancient Moon.
31
Fig. 4. Polar areas of Moon with approximate positions of lunar “North Icy Ocean”- Arctic and “Antarctic” continent.
Both features are shifted from the present day poles according to ancient axis of rotation. Topography from Kaguya
project, www.sciencemag.org.
Fig. 5. The lowest geoid minimum of the Moon – South Pole-Aitken Basin (left) and Earth – Indian geoid minimum.
Both features closely reproduce each other and are parts of wave-sectored structures of respective continental
hemispheres (scheme below).
At the opposite ends of the sequences two most important geoid anomalies of the planet and satellite (Fig. 5)
and corresponding their depressions occur. The lunar SPA basin and the Indian Ocean occupy comparable
places on the bodies (Figs. 1, 2 and 5). It is worth to note that the sector-like protruding “tooth” of the
Indostan Peninsula is mimicked itself inside of the lunar SPA basin (Kochemasov, 2012). Not less significant
are main highland masses on both Earth and Moon. They surround both geoid minima (and depressions)
from the North, East and West showing the highest elevations directly to the North where the Himalayas and
elevated Asian sector are present.
32
The main block of highlands abruptly terminates to the west and passes into the lowlands. The terrestrial
Atlantic is paralleled with meridional sequence of lunar Marea (Humboltian, Marginis, Smithii, Australe).
The northern end of this sequence, like the terrestrial Atlantic, passes into lowland areas of Craters
Rozhdestvensky and Hermite (parallel with the Arctic Ocean). A crosspiece separates them; it could be
compared with a boundary between two sub basins of the Arctic Ocean. Like on Earth the lunar “Arctic
Ocean” has its elevated antipode in the South – lunar “Antarctic” – highlands of the Malapert region and
surroundings (Fig. 4). A significant difference between terrestrial and lunar layouts of the polar tectonopairs
is in that the terrestrial pair lies directly on the poles while the lunar pair is shifted aside. This layout reflects
a position of the ancient axis of rotation that was inclined about 30 degrees from the present one (GarrickBethell et al., 2014). This very important fundamental observation is confirmed also by different orientations
of tectonic lines along which sequences of wave tectonic blocks with differing dimensions occur: Pacific
Ocean – Malay Archipelago – Indian Ocean, and Procellarum Ocean – Mare Orientale – SPA Basin (Figs. 1,
2 and 3). Their dimensions are: 2πR – πR/2 – πR (Fig. 3) (Kochemasov, 2014).
A terrestrial antipodality of the New Guinea Island to the Central Atlantic is repeated in a lunar antipodality
of the Mare Orientale to Mare Australe.
Another planet-satellite pair in the inner Solar system is that of Mars-Phobos. Both largely different cosmic
bodies share the same circumsolar orbit and thus acquire comparable oblong shape dictated by their orbit
twice less frequent than the terrestrial one (Kochemasov, 1994) (Fig. 6).
Fig. 6. Mars (above) and Phobos topography (Oberst et al., 2014). Global tectonic parallel.
33
Conclusion
The traced correlation between fundamental tectonic features on Earth and Moon – their Oceans and Basins
concerns not only their relative sizes but also a regular mutual disposition of very different cosmic bodies.
What is common between these bodies; they share the same circumsolar orbit. Axes of rotation – present and
past – show decisive role in layouts of fundamental wave-born tectonic features. Taking these observations
into account, one conclusion may be drawn: It is time to thoroughly revise existing geological and
planetological tectonic concepts.
References
Andrews-Hanna, J.C., Head III, J. W., Howett, C. J. A. et al. 2014a. The geophysical nature of the Procellarum
region on the Moon as revealed by GRAIL gravity data . 45th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference, 2014,
LPSC Abstract # 2679 pdf
Andrews-Hanna, J.C., Besserer, J., Head III, J.W. et al. 2014b. Structure and evolution of the lunar Procellarum region
as revealed by GRAIL gravity data. Nature, v. 514, #7529, 2014, 68-71, doi: 10.1038/nature 13697.
Garrick-Bethell, I., Perera, V., Nimmo, F., and Zuber, M.T. 2014. The tidal-rotational shape of the Moon and evidence
for polar wander. Nature, v. 512, issue 7513, 14 Aug. 2014, 181-184.
Kochemasov, G.G. 1992. Concerted wave supergranulation of the solar system bodies. 16th RussianAmerican microsymposium on planetology, Abstracts, Moscow, Vernadsky Inst. (GEOKHI), 36-37.
Kochemasov, G.G. 1994. Three “melons” and four “watermelons” in the inner solar system: why all “melons” are in
the martian orbit? 20th Russian-American microsymposium on planetology, Abstracts, Moscow, Vernadsky Institute
(GEOKHI), 1994, 44-45.
Kochemasov, G.G. 1998. Tectonic dichotomy, sectoring and granulation of Earth and other celestial bodies. Proceedings
of the International Symposium on New Concepts in Global Tectonics, “NCGT-98 TSUKUBA”, Geological Survey
of Japan, Tsukuba, Nov 20-23, 1998, p. 144-147.
Kochemasov, G.G. 1999. Theorems of wave planetary tectonics. Geophys. Res. Abstr. 1999. V.1, №3, P.700.
Kochemasov, G.G. 2012. Outstanding large depressions and geoid minima on some celestial bodies as regular wave
woven features (Earth, Moon, Mars, Phobos, Phoebe, Miranda, Lutetia): cosmic sense of the Indian geoid minimum
tectonic phenomenon. NCGT Newslatter, # 63, 2012, 76-79.
Kochemasov, G.G. 2014. Earth and Moon: similar structures – common origin. NCGT Journal, 2014, v. 2, # 2, 28-38.
Oberst, J., Shi, X., Elgner, S., Willner, K. 2014. Dynamic shape and down-slope directions on Phobos. The fifth
Moscow Solar system symposium. Space Research Institute (IKI) RAS, 13-18 October 2014, Abstract 5MS3-MS-11.
Taylor, S.R. 2014. The Moon re-examined. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, v. 141, 15 Sept. 2014, 670-676.
Zuber, M.T., Smith, D.E., Watkins, M.M. et al. 2013. Gravity field of the Moon from the Gravity Recovery
and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission. Science, 2013, v. 339, # 6120, 668- 671.
DOI:0.1126/Science.123150.
34
TENDENCY OF VOLCANO-SEISMIC ACTIVITY DEVELOPED IN THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE HONSHU ARC, JAPAN
Fumio TSUNODA1, Takayuki KAWABE2, Yoshihiro KUBOTA3, Y., Masashi HAYAKAWA4,
and Dong R. CHOI5
1
2
3
4
5
Emeritus Professor, Saitama University, Japan. Tsunochan2@gmail.com
Faculty of Education, Art and Science, Yamagata University, Japan. kawabe@kescriv.kj.yamagata-u.ac.jp
Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Science, Niigata University. 8050 Ikarashi 2-no cho,
Nishiku, Niigata-shi, 950-2181 Japan. kubota@env.sc.niigata-u.ac.jp
Hayakawa Institute of Seismo Electromagnetics Co. Ltd./Univ. of Electro-Communications Incubation Center,
1-5-1 Chofugaoka, Chofu, Tokyo 182-8585, Japan. hayakawa@hi-seismo-em.jp
Raax Australia Pty Ltd/International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center, Australia.
Dong.Choi@raax.com.au; dchoi@ievpc.org
Abstract: Volcanic and seismic events (VE process, VE event) developed in the western part of the Circum-Pan-Pacific
volcanic and seismic belts from Indonesia to Japan have shifted repeatedly at a speed of about 600 km a year on and
after the year 2000. The River Shinano Seismic Zone (SSZ) developed in the Nagano-Niigata area, the central part of
the Honshu Arc of Japan, has been subject to frequent earthquakes as a result of this northing VE process. We consider
that this energy northing is heading for the Chubu district of Japan today. Based on this systematic transition of the VE
process in this area, following the sudden eruption of Ontakesan Volcano, a major earthquake is expected to hit the SSZ
in the near future.
Keywords: hypocenter distribution, Ontake volcanic disasters, thermal transfer time-series change of hypocenter,
volcano-seismic activity
The VE chart of the Philippines-Japan (PJ) thermal transfer route
W
e have reviewed the current understanding of the migration of the VE process, namely, thermal energy
transmigration (Choi and Maslov, 2010; Choi and Tsunoda, 2011). Transit velocity of the volcanic
events is known by the use of the date and time series of volcanic eruptions in the Izu-Bonin volcanic islands
(Thermal transfer route, Mariana Islands-Japan, or MJ route) (Tsunoda, 2009 and 2010a). Northing of these
volcanic eruptions has been accompanied with seismic events (VE process; Tsunoda, 2010b and 2011).
Submarine eruptions which happened nearby the Aogashima Volcanic Island in conformity to the VE
process along the Izu-Bonin Volcanic Chain for 2005-2014 gave the seal to this supposition (Tsunoda et al.,
2014).
We prepared the same VE chart in the thermal transfer route from Indonesia to Japan (Philippines-Japan, or
PJ route; Fig. 1 and Table 1). The width of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes of the PJ route is four
hundred km or more. Volcanic eruptions of the Smithsonian data with the eruptional level L0 (SINMNH,
2014; JMA, 2014) or higher (USGS, 2014; JMA, 2014) were selected and graphically displayed against the
horizontal time axis (Fig. 1).
Every north-going chain of the VE events in time series is shown as an oblique band which is called the VE
recording band (VERB) in Fig. 1. According to this graph, velocity of VE process in every VERB is about
1.6 km/day (or 584 km/year) in the PJ thermal transfer route. Every VERB is revealed in about every half a
year. However, the broad VERB which includes several great volcanic eruptions and some huge earthquakes
have appeared about five years apart. For example, in case of No.7 VERB (VE07 band which is illustrated in
Table 1 and Fig. 1), inception of this north-going VE events was a great eruption of the Soputan Volcano
(V01, L3, Indonesia). Following this major volcanic event three minor volcanic eruptions (V03, V04 and
V05) and thirteen moderate-size earthquakes took place in the PJ route. It may be said in this connection that
the V02 of the No.7 VERB is equal to the Mayon Volcano illustrated in the fig. 2 of Tsunoda (2011).
Namely, this thermal transfer gave rise to a gigantic quake registered as the JMA intensity scale 9.0 Tohoku
Earthquake in March 2011 (Tsunoda, 2011).
Fig. 1. The 2005-2017 VE chart along the PJ route.
35
36
Table 1. VE carte (2007 – 20014) of the PJ route
37
Records of the VE events developed in the Chubu district of the Honshu Arc
The valley of the River Shinano of the central Japan (River Shinano earthquake belt, Fig. 2) has been subject
to frequent earthquakes. The damaging earthquakes developed in this area had been deeply connected with
the volcanic activities in the Chubu district (fig. 19 of Tsunoda, 2010b). Firstly, a big damaging earthquake
(Niigata earthquake, 1964 / Jun. / 16, M7.5) happened after successive volcanic eruptions: Asama,L2,1958;
Asama,L2, 1961; Niigata Yakeyama,L1,1962; Yakedake,L2,1962; Niigata Yakeyama, L1,1963; ditto,
L1,1964 (JMA, 2014).
Secondary, a medium earthquake is in most cases immediately followed by the eruption of Asama Volcano
and Ontake Volcano (Fig. 2). For example, the number of volcanic earthquakes of the Ontake Volcano had
suddenly increased only just prior to the Niigataken Chuetsu Earthquake (M6.8) in 2004. Another VE events
are the VE01 (v03→s1), VE03 (v06→s3), VE04 (v07→s4), VE07 (v06→s7 which is the Niigataken
Chuetsu-oki Earthquake in 2007) and VE11 (v05→s10) (Fig. 1). In case of the VE07, the Ontake Volcanic
activity triggered off the VE process. In this volcanic event, the basement of this volcano was expanded first
and then fractured. Volcanic earthquakes continuously took place and finally shot up from a crater. As the
next step of the VE process, volcanic activity of the Asama Volcano was associated with smoke and
volcanic earthquakes. In the last chain of this VE process, the Niigataken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake (M6.8) in
2007 occurred.
Fig. 2. Seismicity map in the central part of the Japanese Honshu Arc. N-C: Niigataken Chuetsu Earthquake in 2004,
N-C-O: Niigataken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake in 2007, N-P: Noto Peninsula, S-S-Z: Shinanogawa Seismic Zone.
Volcanoes: A: Asama, H: Hakusan, K: Kusatsu-Shirane, N: Norikura, Ns: Nikko-Shirane, Ny: Niigata-Yakeyama,
O: Ontake, T: Tateyama, Y: Yakedake.
Great volcanic eruption of the Soputan Volcano in 2007 (V01 of the VE07 in Fig. 1) is positioned at the root
of the gigantic M9.0 earthquake in 2011 (E03 of the VE07 in Fig. 1). Namely, the beginning of a chain of the
VE events was a volcanic eruption, registered as L3 Soputan Volcano eruption (Indonesia) in the
Smithsonian record. A vast thermal energy must have transferred along the PJ thermal route in order to
supply the huge eruptional and seismic energies when this VE event happened. Broad VE recording bands
38
(VERBs) of the VE03, VE04 and VE07 display as a similar time-series graph. No catastrophic incidents
have been originated outside this band.
(1) Aspects of recent seismic activity
An expansion and destruction of rock layers in the Earth due to heat will generate an earthquake (Matuzawa,
1961; Tsunoda, 2009). In conformity to this assumption, migration of a dense earthquake-outbreak area is
regarded as transfer of a kind of heat flow. In the central Honshu Arc (Fig. 2), a kaleidoscopic change of
hypocenter distribution in 2007 ~ 2014 migrated from the deep-seated thermal transfer route (Tsunoda et al.,
2013) to the upper crust (Figs. 3, 4 and 5). The epicentral area in close formation of deep-focus and intermediate depth earthquakes resembles a horn in shape (Figs. 3 and 4). A kind of heat flow will bring about
these epicenters in close formation. However, this flow is interrupted suddenly at a depth of -60 ~ -70 km.
Some vertical and cylindrical epicenters in close formation that extends along the deep faults developed in
the crust appear in place of a swarm of the intermediate depth earthquakes (Figs. 3 and 5).
Volcanic phenomena of the active volcanoes present itself proportional to the geothermal change. For
example, volcanic smoke will be raised and volcanic earthquakes will increase at the high temperature rise
ratio. Volcanic eruption, volcanic smoke, volcanic earthquake, rate of expansion and low-frequency
earthquake will be associated with the upturn of temperature in the depth.
Fig. 3. Hypocenter distribution of deep and intermediate depth earthquakes.
(2) Aspects of recent VE events
Active volcanoes developed in the central Honshu Arc are stationed along the longitude line as seen in Fig.
6. Appearance of these volcanic phenomena mentioned for the active volcanos on the east is later than that of
the volcanos on the west (Fig. 7). Namely, the chain of volcanic events of the V01 (Fig. 7) began with the
minor seismic events in the Hakusan Volcano located in the western-most in March, 2013, and finished with
the volcanic tremor of the Nikko Shirane Volcano in the eastern-most after three months. Moreover, seismic
energy originated from the thermal energy increased in this period.
Fig. 4. Time series variation of deep and intermediate depth earthquakes.
Fig. 5. Cross section of the zonal hypocenter distribution of the shallow earthquakes. Volcanoes: On, Ontake; Yd,
Yakedake; E, Mt. Eboshidake; Ty, Tateyama; A, Lake Aoki-ko; K, Kamishiro; I: Ikenotaira.
39
40
Fig. 6. Distribution of earthquake hypocenters and active volcanoes developed in the central part of the Japanese
Honshu Arc.
Future VE activity in the SSZ
According to the JMA, Ontake Volcano suddenly went into violent eruption on 27 September 2014 without
noticeable precursory events (JMA, 2014). According to our information pertaining to this case, no
precursory phenomena were detected - this could be attributed to deep subterranean VE events: Thermal
energy flow which had been transferred in the deep thermal channel (Tsunoda et al., 2013) turned its course
toward the shallow transfer route off the west coast of the Noto Peninsula (Figs. 2 and 8). Since then the
heated area that brought about numerous intermediate depth earthquakes spread rapidly and expanded at
three hundred km depth (Fig. 8). Finally, thermal energy was transmitted through shear zones or the volcanic
vents and transferred to the active volcanoes. A satisfactory interpretation should be worked out in
conformity to our model (Fig. 8). Such behavior of the VE process developed in the deep may be difficult to
detect in advance. This point should be further studied in depth.
Recently a private company, Earthquake Analysis Laboratory, was established in Japan, which provides us
with the earthquake prediction information based on the VLF/LF network observation of precursory seismoionospheric perturbations (Hayakawa, 2012). The company was successful in predicting the recent Naganoken Hokubu earthquake happened on 22 Nov 2014 (magnitude 6.2), and its prospective information will be
of potential use in the earthquake hazard mitigation.
Fig. 7. Behavior of the active volcanoes developed in the central part of the Japanese Honshu. GNSS = Global
Navigation Satellite System, which is a GPS system set up by the JMA around the volcanic mountains.
41
42
Fig. 8. Diffusional scheme of thermal flow that created the volcanic eruption of Ontake Volcano.
Acknowledgements: We thank to use the integrated data package processed by Japan Meteorological Agency, Ministry
of Science and Education. These data were prepared by; Japan Meteorological Agency, National Research Institute for
Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Hokkaido University, Hirosaki University, Tohoku University, the University of
Tokyo, Nagoya University, Kyoto University, Kochi University, Kyushu University, Kagoshima University, Geological
Survey of Japan, Tokyo Metropolitan Government, Shizuoka Prefecture, Hot Springs Research Institute of Kanagawa
Prefecture, Yokohama City and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology.
References cited
Choi, D.R. and Maslov, L., 2010. Earthquakes and solar activity cycles. NCGT Newsletter, no. 57, p. 85-97.
Choi, D.R. and Tsunoda, F., 2011. Volcanic and seismic activities during the solar hibernation periods. NCGT
Newsletter, no.61, p. 78-87.
Hayakawa, M., 2012. Short-term earthquake prediction with electromagnetic effects: Present situation. NCGT
Newsletter, no. 63, p. 9-14.
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) HP, 2014. http://www.jp/ima/en/menu.html
Matsuzawa, T., 1964. Study of earthquakes. UNO Shoten, Tokyo, 213p. (in Japanese)
Smithsonian Institution National Museum of National History (SINMNH), 2015.
http://www.volcano.si.edu/search_eruption.cfm
Tsunoda, F., 2009. Habits of earthquakes. Part 1: Mechanism of earthquakes and lateral thermal seismic energy
transmigration. NCGT Newsletter, no. 53, p. 38-46.
Tsunoda, F., 2010a. Habits of earthquakes. Part 2: Earthquake corridors in East Asia. NCGT Newsletter, no.54, 45-56.
Tsunoda, F., 2010b. Habits of earthquakes. Part 3: Earthquake in the Japanese Islands. NCGT Newsletter, no. 55,
p. 35-65.
Tsunoda, F., 2011. The March 2011 Great offshore Tohoku-Pacific Earthquake from the perspective of the VE process.
NCGT Newsletter, no.59, p. 69-77.
Tsunoda, F., Choi, D.R. and Kawabe, T., 2013. Thermal energy transmigration and fluctuation. NCGT Journal, v. 1,
no. 2, p. 65-80.
Tsunoda, F., Kawabe, T. and Choi, D.R., 2014. Transmigrating heat passing through the Aogashima Volcanic Island,
Izu volcanic chain, Japan. NCGT Journal, v. 2, no. 2, p. 23-27.
USGS HP, 2014. http://earthquakes.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/
Postscript: We dedicate this article to the victims of the Ontake Volcanic eruption in September 2014.
43
THE AUSTRALIA-ANTARCTICA DYNAMO-TECTONIC RELATIONSHIP:
MESO-CENOZOIC WRENCH TECTONIC EVENTS, AND PALAEOCLIMATE
Karsten M. STORETVEDT
Institute of Geophysics, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
“It must certainly be allowed, that nature has kept us at a great distance from all her secrets, and has afforded us only the knowledge
of a few superficial qualities of objects, while she conceals from us those powers and principles, on which the influence of these
objects entirely depends”
David Hume, in: An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding (1748)
“At any one time scientific man can only regard his knowledge as provisional because something more effective might come along.”
Bryan Appleyard, in: Understanding the Present (1992)
Synopsis: Traditionally, the tectonic and palaeo-climate histories of Australia and Antarctica, both being surrounded by
thin-crusted oceanic basins, have been extrapolated from the current popular global theory. But since neither plate
tectonics nor earlier theories of the Earth have turned out to be viable constructs, extrapolations into the tectonics of the
Southern Hemisphere have often led to a chaotic artificiality making the natural connections and causality difficult or
impossible to establish. This paper takes a fresh look at crucial facts from the Australia region and Antarctica and, by
using the fundamental tenets of the inertia-driven Global Wrench Tectonics (Storetvedt, 1997 and 2003) in light of the
tectonic history of the two continents, builds up a new mega-scale coherent and sequential order of facts and
phenomena. The dynamo-tectonic consequence of loss of continental crust to the upper mantle, a process that
accelerated during the Cretaceous, was changes in the Earth’s rotation – with attendant inertia-driven, latitudedependent westward torsion of the planetary lithosphere. Despite their physical separation, this analysis concludes that
Australia and Antarctica have had closely associated mobilistic histories – intimately linked to the operative mode of
global wrench tectonics.
Keywords: Australia, Antarctica, Meso-Caenozoic, polar wander/palaeoclimates, wrench tectonics
Australia in a Southern Hemisphere perspective
I
n two recent articles in this journal (Storetvedt and Longhinos, 2014a & b), a variety of geophysical and
geological evidence in favour of episodic Meso-Caenozoic counter-clockwise inertial rotations of
Australia has been presented. As inertial lithospheric motions are products of changes in the Earth’s rotation,
Australia’s motions can be explained by events of counter-clockwise wrenching of the southern palaeolithosphere while the northern palaeo-lithosphere was subjected to an equivalent clockwise torsion. Hence,
the palaeo-equatorial region would constitute a moderate overall westward-directed transpressive regime.
From the perspective of the new global tectonic basis – Wrench Tectonics, Fig. 1 delineates the inferred
palaeo-geographic/tectonic stages for Australia in the Lower Cretaceous-Lower Tertiary (a) and Neogene
times (b), respectively. This interpretation of tectonic development in the region provides a simple and
comprehensive explanation of the unusually complex, and hitherto enigmatic, build-up of the SW Pacific
margin (including the Australasia conjoint). The primary purpose of this article is to put the tectonics of the
Australia region into a wider Southern Hemisphere context.
The great confusion pertaining to present day global geology is apparently due to the fact that, over the past
half century, the hypothetical plate tectonic model has become the ruling creed (a kind of zombie science)
that has counteracted alternative fundamental thinking by marginalizing contradictory voices. To a large
extent, the current chaotic situation can be traced back to Alfred Wegener’s wishful thinking about the
palaeogeography of the southern continents for which Antarctica was given a central position with persistent
polar location (Wegener, 1912 and 1929). Contrary to Wegener’s fairyland ideas about an Antarctic
continent with permanent ice-house conditions, it was well established already a century ago that Antarctica
had experienced a long history of luxuriant flora indicative of former tropical-to-warm intermediate latitude
conditions.
44
a
b
Fig. 1. Prior to the Lower Cretaceous, the SW Pacific land mass – including Australia, New Guinea and Sulawesi – had
a palaeogeographic orientation as indicated by a, position I. The present Great Australian Bight was facing a
developing early stage Indian Ocean and the New Guinea/Sulawesi region was geographically relatively remote from
SE Asia. Commencing around 120 m.y. ago and lasting well into the Lower Tertiary, a global tectonic revolution in
terms of a latitude-dependent westward torsion of the two time-equivalent lithospheric caps (shown by thick curved
arrows), brought SE Asia and the Australian/SW Pacific continent into closer proximity (a, position II). During the
subsequent Neogene to Recent tectonic events, the extended Australian land mass was subjected to a significant
counter-clockwise rotation (~70˚) – b, position I to position II. In this latter wrenching process, the extended
Australian block was brought into close proximity with SE Asia thereby creating the most distinct biogeographic
boundary in the world – the Wallace Line. These late Lower Cretaceous and Neogene inertial rotations of the Australia
block are responsible for the contorted Benioff system of the SW Pacific. Note the change of the relative equator during
the two time intervals – brought about by a major spatial reorientation of the Earth (true polar wander) about 35 m.y.
ago. For further details, see Storetvedt (1997 and 2003) and Storetvedt and Longhinos (2014).
An early Norwegian (1893) and subsequent Swedish and British expeditions, in the early 1900s, discovered
that, even as late as the Lower Tertiary, Antarctica had been much warmer than today, allowing for a rich
terrestrial vegetation. Middle Palaeozoic and Mesozoic fossils of silicified tree trunks and fish remains
(Devonian) gave rise to considerable speculation about the palaeogeographic setting and climatic history of
the present South Pole continent (e.g., Larsen, 1894; Sharman and Newton, 1894; Andersson, 1906; Dusén,
1908; Halle, 1913; Seward, 1914; Woodward, 1921). Thus, already a century ago, it was apparent that
Antarctica had once borne a rich cover of vascular plants from at least the Devonian persisting well into the
Tertiary.
Apart from short-lived global cold spells – in the lowermost Permian and latest Precambrian, Australia seems
to have experienced warm palaeo-equatorial conditions since at least Neo-Proterozoic time (see, for example,
fig. 3 in Storetvedt and Longhinos, 2014b). Under the umbrella of the hypothetical (and currently very
popular, Gondwana continental assembly – centered on a presumed polar Antarctica, from which Australia is
thought to have broken away in the early Tertiary, several palaeo-climate and biogeographic intricacies have
arisen. For example, in a survey on biography and plate tectonics, Briggs (1987, p. 165) concludes: “A
general conclusion…that affects the separation sequence as it is usually presented, is that Gondwanaland, in
terms of an amalgamation of southern continents that was separate from a northern Laurasia, probably
never existed in the Mesozoic”.
In terms of climate, the fossil record of Antarctica tells strongly in favour of protracted tropical to warm
temperate conditions, a fact that plate tectonicists have chosen to ignore. This brings us to a couple of wellestablished facts: (1) while Antarctica had sustained tropical to subtropical conditions, Africa experienced
polar conditions and cold climate, and (2) Antarctica became a polar continent only some 35 m. y. ago (at the
Eocene/Oligocene time boundary). This brings us to the dynamical concept of true polar wander – implying
stepwise progressive spatial resetting of the globe (relative to the solar equator). Polar wander is an essential
prerequisite for understanding the protracted history of the subtropical to warm intermediate climate in
Australia (see below). Furthermore, for a better understanding of the complex late Lower CretaceousNeogene tectonic history of Australia and its adjacent SW Pacific margin, it is necessary to view these
aspects in a broader Southern Hemisphere perspective.
Climate versus palaeo-latitude – the significance of True Polar Wander
45
Considering the well-established Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimatic pattern, Köppen and Wegener (1924)
and Wegener (1929) argued confidently that, since Palaeozoic times, the climate of the Arctic/northern
European region had experienced a number of progressive shifts from tropical to polar – with the most
marked climatic cooling having taken place at around the Middle Tertiary, with an exactly reverse trend for
southern Africa. Molengraaf (1898) and others had established that, in the Middle-Upper Palaeozoic, central
and southern Africa had been subjected to significant glacial activity. These observations were consistent
with a polar setting of the southern African region (see also Visser, 1990; Visser et al., 1990); this region
would then be located some 90˚ south of the corresponding palaeo-equatorial belt running across northern
and north-central Europe. The rich Lower Tertiary floras of the Arctic were related to a warm temperate
climate, but a subsequent polar wander event had, according to Wegener, given the Earth its present spatial
orientation and the Arctic region its present polar setting.
The left-hand figure below (Fig. 2 a) shows the southward progression of the Middle Palaeozoic-Lower
Tertiary palaeo-equators as described by Wegener (1929) – based on palaeo-climatic evidence with the
continents in their present relative positions. The right-hand figure below (Fig. 2b) shows the global polar
wander path for the same time range established by palaeomagnetic data – after correction for modest
relative rotations of the major land masses during the Upper Cretaceous to Lower Tertiary (cf. Storetvedt,
1990 and 1997). The close palaeo-latitudinal match of the two methods is quite eye-catching. According to
the combined evidence, the polar pattern proceeded southward, in a jerky manner, off the eastern border of
SW Africa. Thus, in the Middle Palaeozoic, the geographic South Pole was located off the coasts of
Angola/Namibia; in Permian time, the pole was at latitude ca. 40-45˚S in present grids (i.e. just south of
South Africa), and, in the Lower Tertiary, the pole was at latitude 55˚S. The last major shift (relative to the
Earth’s surface) took place some 35 m. y. ago – at the Eocene/Oligocene boundary after which Antarctica
acquired its present polar setting. Before the final relative shift of the Earth’s axis of rotation, the latitude
range for Antarctica varied from intermediate to sub-tropical (see also below).
Fig. 2. The illustrations demonstrate the close correlation between the climatically-based palaeo-equators as described
by Wegener (1929) – left-hand figure, for the time interval from the Middle Palaeozoic to the Lower Tertiary. The
corresponding global palaeomagnetic polar path – right-hand figure, running from northern Central Pacific to the
present North Pole – is after Storetvedt (1990 and 1997). The equivalent anti-poles would describe a polar path in the
eastern South Atlantic running towards the present South Pole. The estimated global polar track has been corrected for
relatively modest inertial rotations of the major continents. The episodic shift of the palaeo-geographic system (relative
to the Earth’s surface), with intermittent changes of the equatorial bulge, would cause hydrostatic pressure changes
within the developing asthenosphere. These episodic dynamic changes correspond to tectono-magmatic upheavals that
define prominent geological time boundaries (Storetvedt, 2003). The major latitudinal shift between the Lower and
Upper Tertiary poles/palaeo-equators correspond to the Eocene-Oligocene boundary – a time characterized by
widespread tectonic disturbances, notably in the oceans. Notations are: C/LC, Lower Carboniferous; P, Permian; LT,
Lower Tertiary; UT, Upper Tertiary.
The ‘first-order’ shifts of the palaeo-climate system seem to be well explained by the simple path of episodic
true polar wander centered close to the Greenwich meridian plane. Since the early Palaeozoic, the Earth has
apparently undergone intermittent changes of its spatial orientation in the direction of the Pacific –
eventually ending up in the present Polar Regions some 35 m.y. ago. In the time span between Ordovician
and the Lower Tertiary, Europe enjoyed tropical to subtropical environmental conditions during which the
palaeo-equator made a number of jerky shifts, defining an overall southward progression from sub-Arctic
46
regions towards the Mediterranean. The relative change of the palaeo-equators had little climatic effect in
Australia and South America – both regions having remained sub-tropical throughout Phanerozoic time.
Though the variation of climate across the globe is closely associated with latitudes, evidence shows that
shorter-lived events of global cooling, of unknown origin, have sometimes interrupted the normal latitudinal
variation. Fig. 2 demonstrates that, during the Permo-Carboniferous, South Africa was closer to the actual
geographic South Pole than any other parts of the southern continents, while Haughton (1969) has argued
that the Dwyka Tillite of the southern Cape Province, which exceeds 700 metres in thickness, has been
derived from a southerly direction. However, during Permian time, events of glacial activity have been
reported from most parts of the globe – even from palaeo-equatorial regions. In Australia, for example, a
cold early Permian interlude interrupted a prolonged period of tropical climate. Evidence for such a climatic
shift has been reported from oxygen isotope measurements on fossils derived from glacial and post-glacial
Lower Permian sediments of Western Australia – arriving at surface-water temperatures of around 8˚C and
24˚C respectively (Lowenstam, 1964). The rise in temperature, which followed the demise of the glaciers,
probably restored the normal surface-water temperatures consistent with the region’s long-term equatorial
palaeolatitude. In Europe, the early Permian (Sakmarian) Zechstein evaporite basins formed closely
following the termination of the widespread glaciation in the Southern Hemisphere (Frakes, 1979).
The major phase of true polar wander at around the Eocene-Oligocene boundary is correlated with a large
shift in the stable isotope values of deep sea foraminifers found in deep sea drilling (ODP) sites at high
southern latitudes. The amplitude of the observed oxygen isotope shift can be associated with a very rapid
cooling of Antarctica – from early Tertiary greenhouse conditions towards today’s glacial climate (e.g., Lear
et al., 2008; Zachos et al., 1996). The distinct change of climate in the Antarctic Peninsula is dramatically
illustrated by Fig. 3. As the major latitude-dependent climate change, caused by true polar wander, occurred
in the approximate Greenwich meridian plane, Australia did not undergo significant changes of palaeolatitude at that time (cf. Fig. 1).
Fig. 3. A dramatic flip from greenhouse conditions (sub-tropical to warm intermediate climate) to a state of polar
glaciation took place in Antarctica across the Eocene-Oligocene boundary. Illustration is from Elderfield (2000).
Ollier (1992), discussing the palaeo-tectonic/climatic relationship, commented: “Simple change in latitude
might reasonably be thought to be a basic feature in climate change, but the situation is not that simple. For
example, Australia separated from Antarctica about 55Ma, and seafloor spreading created the southern
ocean. It seems that Antarctica was almost stationary, and most of the movement was taken up by Australia’s
drift into lower latitudes. It might be expected that this would result in a change from originally cold
climates to increasingly warm climates. However, the evidence of palaeontology suggests that the climate
was warm and wet even when Australia was in very high latitude, and it stayed that way until Australia
reached its present position” – which, according to plate tectonic depictions, occurred in the Middle-Upper
Tertiary.
This is a typical example of how the plate tectonics creed has spread artificiality, enforced interpretations and
conundrums into Earth science. From factual evidence, it is appropriate to conclude: (1) there is no evidence
47
that the Southern Ocean was formed by seafloor spreading, (2) there is no reason to believe that the
continental masses of present-day Australia and Antarctica were ever united, (3) the palaeo-latitudes for
Australia have remained equatorial to sub-equatorial since at least the Upper Proterozoic, and (4) while
Australia’s tropical to sub-tropical climate has persisted to this day, Antarctica acquired its present polar
icehouse conditions at around the Eocene-Oligocene.
Unfortunately, Wegener had been so preoccupied with his continental drift idea, including the amalgamation
of the southern land masses (Gondwana), that he failed to see (or chose to ignore) that the palaeoclimatic
trend for Antarctica was completely in phase with that for northern Europe and the Arctic region. In addition
to the hot-warm environments in the Palaeozoic of Antarctica indicated by a multitude of fossil and rock
evidence for palaeoclimate (for more than a century), palaeomagnetic data give further support in favour of
the proposition for an ancient sub-equatorial seating of that continent. For example, the fossil magnetization
of red sandstones from ODP Site 740 (Barron et al., 1989), on the eastern margin of Antarctica in Prydz Bay,
gives adequate palaeo-latitude information: stable high temperature magnetizations have unfolded a
characteristic shallow, dual-polarity magnetization axis with an overall inclination of around 22° (i.e.,
palaeo-equatorial). Keating and Sakai (1988) regarded the cored red silt-clay-sandstone as being continental
– as part of the well-known Beacon Group of Antarctica (spanning Devonian to Triassic ages), of which a
narrow belt occurs just inland of the drill site.
The Transantarctic Mountains and the Antarctic Peninsula have a rich variety of fossilized late Palaeozoic
and Mesozoic vegetation, preserved as leaves, petrified wood, pollen and spores (e.g., Askin, 1989; Césari et
al., 2001; Cúneo et al., 2003; Hayes et al., 2006). Numerous studies of tree ring analyses and other evidence
indicates climatic conditions very favourable for plant growth. Thus, a recent palaeoclimate analysis of late
Cretaceous angiosperm leaf flora from two separate formations gave annual mean temperatures of 13-21˚C
and 15-23˚C (Hayes et al., 2006). According to the latter authors, “The fossil plants are indicative of warm
climates without extended periods of winter temperatures below freezing and with adequate moisture for
growth”. The persistent problem of interpreting the rich Antarctic flora – vegetation consistent with tropical
or warm intermediate climates – is apparently that Antarctica during the Phanerozoic did not have a polar
setting implied by plate tectonics. In fact, Antarctica apparently got its present polar location, for the first
time in Earth history, only 35 m.y. ago!
The same misconception is currently seen with regard to the interpretation of Cretaceous-Lower Tertiary
warm climate proxies in Svalbard, northern Greenland and Arctic Canada – from which a wide range of
plants are thought to have thrived in near-polar locations – a conclusion resulting from plate tectonicsenforced palaeo-geographies. Huber and Caballero (2011) recently stated that the “warm extratropical
annual mean and above-freezing winter temperatures, evidenced by proxy records, have remained as one of
the great unsolved problems in paleoclimate”. The vegetation-temperature mismatch is currently being
referred to as the “equable climate problem”, but modelling studies over the past decades have failed
completely to solve this puzzle (e.g., Sloan and Barron, 1990; Spicer and Parrish, 1990; Sloan and Morrill,
1998; Huber, 2008). Speculations abound, but the suggested fossil record-climate mismatch is hardly
anything but an artificial construct – caused by the fact that the Earth science community has forgotten to
take the global dynamical mechanism of True Polar Wander into consideration. However, despite the fact
that the North Pole was established within the Polar Basin some 35 m.y. ago, the northern polar ice masses
formed only some 3 m.y. ago (see Zachos et al., 2008). I shall come back to this central issue in a later
communication.
Oceanic basin development and dynamo-tectonic consequences
Deep sea drilling data and geophysical evidence have demonstrated that the formation of deep oceanic basins
is primarily a Cretaceous phenomenon. Accelerated sub-crustal eclogitization and associated gravity-driven
crustal delamination (i.e., loss of original continental crust to the upper mantle) led to planetary acceleration
which, in turn, gave rise to events of inertia-driven westward torsion of the brittle lithospheric shell (cf.
Storetvedt, 2003). For most of geological history, tectonism was largely concentrated within specific crustal
zones. These belts constituted either overall transpressively or transtensively deformed palaeoequatoraligned geosynclines, or rift zones oriented at steep angles to corresponding palaeo-equators. In a recent
article in this journal (Storetvedt and Longhinos, 2014b: their fig. 3), the tectonic system was demonstrated
by two palaeoequator-aligned fold belts cutting across Australia in its original (pre-Cretaceous) orientation,
i.e., position 1 of Fig. 1a: the Adelaidean lithotectonic belt (late Proterozoic-early Palaeozoic) and the
Tasman fold belt of Middle-Late Palaeozoic age.
48
Gradually, the crustal response to changes in the Earth’s rotation was modified. Due to the accelerated
growth, during the late Mesozoic, of thin oceanic lithosphere – replacing original, much thicker continental
lithosphere – an increasingly significant part of the tectonic processes was ‘transferred’ from the continents
to the thinner/weaker and more easily deformable oceanic basement. In this process, the thinly-crusted
oceanic tracts were turned into a new type of mega-scale tectonic regions not seen on Earth before. The
Alpine-age tectonic revolution was under way. This major global diastrophism appeared in a number of
pulses, and, due to the predominance of deep sea regions in the Southern Hemisphere (with thin and fragile
crust), stresses and tectonic deformation were much stronger than in the ‘continental’ Northern Hemisphere
(see Storetvedt, 1997 and 2003). Consequently, smaller land masses like Australia and Antarctica –
surrounded by more effective inertia-triggered stress fields, would be liable to undergo larger tectonic
wrench rotations than the major continents. Fig. 4 shows the inertia-driven continental rotations along with
associated crustal shear deformation within the oceanic basins.
During Cretaceous-Lower Tertiary time – corresponding to the Alpine tectonic climax, the palaeo-equatorial
axis passed from Panama across the Central Atlantic, moving onward along the southern rim of the present
Mediterranean, passing southern India and continuing alongside the western section of the Indonesian Arc,
then past northern Australia and northern New Zealand before finishing its great-circle girdle in southern
South America. In the time-equivalent global wrenching process, the northern palaeo-lithospheric cap was
subjected to a clockwise inertial drag, while the corresponding inertial forcing of the southern palaeolithospheric cap was in the counter clockwise sense. Within the global inertial frame, the continental blocks
would have undergone latitude-dependent relative rotations (depending on their size and latitudinal setting) –
which for the larger continents varied from 10-40 degrees of azimuthal ‘swings’. Within the wrench tectonic
system, the inertial response would have been more prevalent for upstanding continental blocks than for lowlying oceanic regions. Thus, the continents, along with broader zones of thin oceanic crust, have attained
individual rotations – their angular velocities depending on factors such as palaeo-latitudinal setting, the size
of the individual block, the degree of development of the actual asthenospheric ‘layer’, as well as the overall
effect of operating wrench forces – including shape effects (Storetvedt, 2003). In this process the North and
South Atlantic basins acquired their present southward-directed fanning-out shapes, but overall the global
land/sea configuration changed very little.
Fig. 4. Base map from NOAA Satellite Radar Altimeter data of ocean floor structures (Sandwell and Smith, 2008).
White arrows illustrate the sense of latitude-dependent Cretaceous-Tertiary (Alpine-age) continental rotations estimated
by palaeomagnetic data (Storetvedt, 1990, 1997 and 2003). Note the unusually strong crustal shearing and deformation
in the southern oceans, a factor of essential importance for evaluating the early tectonic relationship of Australia and
Antarctica and their later individual wrench tectonic histories.
Both Antarctica and South America were affected by tectonic interactions from a neighbouring continent.
49
Thus, the tectonic interaction across the Equatorial Atlantic led to strong structural deformation/reactivations
across this relatively narrow oceanic sector; an unusually dense system of trans-oceanic shear zones formed
in this process – cutting deep into the two adjoining continents. South America, being surrounded by thin and
fragile oceanic crust, would be tectonically less stable than Africa. Without the effect from tectonic
interaction, South America would dynamically have been subjected to a counter clockwise inertial rotation,
like Africa. Instead, the overall effect was a minor clockwise rotation of the order of 10 degrees (Storetvedt,
1990 and 1997). A similar strong tectonic interaction – between South America and Antarctica, is very well
exposed in the Scotia Sea region (cf. Fig. 4).
With the Upper Cretaceous-Lower Tertiary palaeo-equatorial zone running across the Arabian Sea and Bay
of Bengal, the whole of the Indian Ocean would be liable to undergo wrench deformation at that time. Thus,
the southern South Atlantic Ridge is cut by another oceanic ridge – extending from the southern Scotia Arc
and continuing in a counter-clockwise bend deep into the Indian Ocean. The dense shearing and prevailing
structural sinuosity of the Indian Ocean basement signifies that relatively strong ‘crustal’ wrench
deformation has been in operation: authors like Weissel et al. (1980), Neprochnov et al. (1988) and Wezel
(1988) have shown that even Miocene and Pliocene strata of the Central Indian Basin have been subjected to
strong tectonic disturbance. A broad region of transpressional deformation manifested in major seismic
activity, undulations of the order of 200 km in topography and gravity, generally high but variable heat flux,
the presence of intense folding of the sedimentary succession, and high angle reverse faulting demonstrate
that the Equatorial Indian Ocean is a locus of strong tectonic activity (Weissel et al., 1980; Haxby and
Weissel, 1986; Curray and Munasinghe, 1989; Bull and Scrutton, 1992, etc.). The faults in the Central Indian
Basin appear to extend to the base of the crust and possibly down into the upper mantle. Furthermore, Wezel
(1988) noted that the marine-magnetic anomalies in the Central Indian Basin run approximately parallel to
the regional high-angle reverse faults, indicating a close genetic relationship between the magnetic lineations
and the deep-seated fracture systems – in other words, the magnetic anomalies are likely to be faultcontrolled and therefore related to rock alteration.
Evidence from dredged rocks, indicating that the lower crust of the western Indian Ocean is dominantly
made of mafic-ultramafic igneous complexes affected by pervasive regional metamorphism, has been
substantiated by deep sea drilling. Thus, ODP Leg 118 recovered basement rocks such as serpentinite,
mylonitized serpentinite, amphibolite and meta-gabbro (Robinson et al., 1989). The gabbros are described as
cataclastically altered over a range of temperatures, with crushing and metasomatic alterations being
observed frequently. In the later extended drilling in the same borehole (to a depth of 1508 m sub-bottom),
ODP Leg 176 (Natland et al., 1998), a relatively diversified plutonic complex was sampled. More than 250
felsic veins were encountered, spread over the ca. 1 km of the deeper oceanic crust, and a large number of
both high- and low-angle shear zones were reported. According to Natland et al. (1998), the metasomatism
and alteration occurred in two stages: the first produced a high-temperature sequence from granulite to
amphibolite facies in a dynamic environment, while the second, related to a different set of fractures,
involved lower temperature alteration products.
Sampling of plutonic and metamorphic rocks from numerous locations along the central Indian ridges and
plateaus (for recent summaries, see Storetvedt, 1997 and 2003; Yano et al., 2011) has repeatedly been
reported – notably even before plate tectonics had become the ruling dogma in the Earth sciences. For
example, Chernysheva and Murdma (1971), describing dredged rocks from six areas of the Central Indian
Ridge, reached the following conclusion: “All stages of the metamorphism are connected with multiple
deformation of the rocks. Infiltration of the volatile fluids (possibly of upper mantle origin) through deep
fracture zones is considered to be an important factor in the metamorphism. The metamorphic greenstone
association is distinctly separated from unaltered tholeiitic basalts by a period of tectonic deformation and
metamorphism”.
The Indian Ocean is characterized by the complexity of irregular plateaus and steep-sided ridges; based on
their crustal thicknesses and seismological characteristics, many authors have agreed that at least most of
these upstanding features are likely to be continental in origin (e.g., Laughton et al., 1970; Schlich et al.,
1971; Uptonm 1982). Geophysical data seem to indicate a rather continuous transition in crustal structure
between the submerged continental plateaus and the surrounding deep sea plains. An uneven oceanization of
the Indian Ocean crust, from that of a former continental state to its present configuration – consisting of a
myriad of continental remains in mix with deep sea basins, seems the most ready explanation (Storetvedt,
2003). Rock evidence suggests that the upper crust consists of a lower plutonic section exhibiting strong
shear deformation followed by a minor irregularly distributed succession of relatively fresh capping basalts.
50
One may be tempted to believe that the major phase of crustal diastrophism that swept the evolving Indian
Ocean corresponds to the Upper Cretaceous to Lower Tertiary (Alpine age) global tectonic revolution –
topped by a much weaker tectonic unrest in the Miocene. The strongly deformed crust of the Central Indian
Basin, located between the Laccadive-Chagos and Ninety-East ridges, displaying high seismicity and greatly
variable but generally high heat flux (Eittreim and Ewing, 1972; Stein and Okal, 1978; Geller et al., 1983,
etc.), has remained one of the great mysteries in modern global tectonics. This broad mid-ocean fold belt,
representing a peak in the regional tectonic activity, has apparently affected the entire Indian Ocean crust.
Thus, Neprochnov et al. (1988) concluded that the extensive system of along-basin sinistral strike-slip faults
of the Central Indian Basin is cut by a younger, and relatively less intense, SW-NE-oriented shear structures
splitting the Ninety-East Ridge. Let us then take a closer look at the possible displacement figure along the
Central Indian Ocean.
A palaeomagnetic comparison – Africa versus Australia/Antarctica
In order to elucidate the question of shearing along the thin-crust of the Central Indian Basin, it is appropriate
to make a palaeomagnetic comparison between Africa, on the northwestern side of the postulated shear belt,
and Australia and Antarctica on the opposing side. Smaller continental masses like Australia and Antarctica
– which, since the Lower-Middle Cretaceous, have been circumscribed by thin and mechanically weak crust
– would be vulnerable to rotational tectonic instability. In their present geographical orientation, the two
continental blocks display significantly different polar paths, so in situ relative rotations of the two land
masses may account for their present palaeomagnetic polar dispersal. To evaluate the relative Alpine-age
tectonic movements, mean poles for Jurassic rocks, based on those estimated by Tarling (1983), are used
here as a pre-Alpine palaeomagnetic reference. The choice of Jurassic data gives itself in that the Jurassic
period is the only one with reasonable data coverage for Antarctica. Simple rotations of Australia and
Antarctica give two possible intersection points for the Jurassic mean poles, but the one of relevance here is
undoubtedly the one closest to the corresponding African pole. Interestingly, this common
Australia/Antarctica pole is displaced to the northeast of that for Africa – a sense of relative motion which is
consistent with that proposed by Neprochnov et al. (1988) for the tectonized Central Indian Basin. Fig. 5
displays the palaeo-polar arrangement prior to individual rotation of Australia and Antarctica.
Judging from Fig. 5, before their individual in situ rotations, Australia and Antarctica were parts of the
inferred counter-clockwise wrenching of the southern palaeohemisphere; the two land masses were not
physically juxtaposed, but during the early stages of the Alpine-age tectonic revolution it seems that they
formed a single tectonic unit. Resulting from this significant torsion, the Australia/Antarctica block moved
some 1700 km north-northeasterly relative the African/western Indian Ocean block. This mega-scale left
lateral displacement is likely to have been a dominating factor behind the penetrating tectonic shearing of the
Indian oceanic basement. The unusual deformability of the southern palaeo-lithospheric cap is apparently
due to the more widespread crustal attenuation in the Southern Hemisphere and associated build-up of the
underlying asthenosphere. At that stage, it is suggested that the original continental crust between Australia
and Antarctica had not yet been transformed significantly to form a deep oceanic basin.
The large-scale north-northeasterly displacement of the Australia-Antarctica tectonic unit clearly led to
considerable structural reactivation and deformation in the Indonesia and Melanesia regions. Thus, along the
deep landward dipping Benioff Zone, the partly thinned north-eastern Indian Ocean must have been
subjected to considerable under-thrusting (beneath continental Indonesia) besides giving rise to an early
stage bending of the Indonesian Arc. Further to the east, the Melanesia region underwent significant
compressive-transpressive deformation (see below), and the significant structural ‘knee’ characterizing the
margins of the SW Pacific is thought to have formed in this process. The early stage
reconfiguration/displacement of Australia is depicted in Fig. 1a.
The rotation of Antarctica
Judging from the continental reconfiguration of Fig. 5, Australia and Antarctica – after their common
counter-clockwise motion – must have undergone significant in situ rotations before they finally, in late
Neogene times (see below), ended up in their present azimuthal orientations. Thus, broader crustal belts
surrounding Antarctica display overall unusually strong structural deformation (cf. Fig. 4): the association of
prominent features, like (1) the intense shearing south of the South Australian Basin, including the marked
51
clockwise bend of the Macquarie-Balleny Ridge (running south of southwestern New Zealand), (2) the
mega-scale wavy fault zones across the southern Pacific, (3) the strong crustal contortion and metamorphism
in the Drake Passage-Scotia Sea region, (4) the 90˚ eastward bending of the southernmost Andes, continuing
along the Magallanes Fault system and the North Scotia Ridge (see, for example, Maffione et al., 2010) , (5)
the prominent NW/SE-oriented fracture system of the Drake Passage-Scotia Sea, including the major
Shackleton Fracture Zone, (6) the Scotia compressional front, and (7) the sharp rectilinear intersection
between the eastward extension of the South Scotia Ridge/Fault Zone with the South Atlantic Ridge. This
complexity of oceanic structures is likely to be directly associated with Antarctica’s major clockwise
rotation.
Fig. 5 The common position of the Jurassic palaeomagnetic pole for Australia and Antarctica (AN/AU), after adequate
rotations about their approximate continental centroids, shows a ca. 15 degrees northeasterly shift (ca. 1700 km)
relative to the corresponding African palaeomagnetic pole (AF). The sense of palaeomagnetic offset concurs with the
proposition of Neprochnov et al. (1988) that the Central Indian Basin represent a mega-scale left-lateral fold belt. Note
that the orientation of both Australia and Antarctica, after the relative Indian Ocean tectonic offset, was markedly
different from those of today: the Great Australian Bight was facing Africa/Indian Ocean while the Antarctic Peninsula
was pointing into the South Pacific. The subsequent individual rotations of Australia and Antarctica, along with broader
zones of circumscribing oceanic basement – towards their present geographical orientations – are the likely cause of the
extremely sheared crust of the southern oceans.
The thinly-crusted oceanic tracts circumscribing Antarctica would naturally have been intensely broken up in
the rotation process thereby paving the way for crustal entrainment of mantle hydrous fluids – triggering
rising crustal eclogitization, accelerated gravity-driven crustal delamination and basin subsidence (cf.
Storetvedt 2003 and references therein). The elongate deep sea basins circumscribing Antarctica – the
Atlantic-Indian-Antarctic Basin, the Eastern Indian-Antarctic Basin, and the Pacific-Antarctic Basin – are
readily explained in this way. Consistent with the idea of a close relationship between fracturing and crustal
thickness, results from a tomographic study by Danesi et al. (2001) found that the Antarctica craton (East
Antarctica) has a thick crust and a deep cold root, whereas the West Antarctica rift system has a relatively
thin crust. The degree of crustal thinning compared with crustal fracturing/basin formation has also been
demonstrated by crustal thickness studies along the western margin of the Antarctic Peninsula (Birkenmajer
et al., 1990; Grad et al., 2002). Thus, inland Moho depths were found to be typically 36-42 km, the depth had
dropped 25-28 km in the outer shelf region, while in the region of the fractured South Shetland Trench, the
Moho depth was a mere 10 km; even the crust of the Trench is likely to be of continental origin.
Owing to the proximity of Antarctica and southern South America, the Drake Passage-Scotia Sea region
would be the ideal contact zone for studying the tectono-metamorphic and magmatic products resulting from
Antarctica’s large-scale rotation. According to Dalziel et al. (1989), this narrow crustal belt is characterized
by variable Upper Cretaceous penetrative deformation and widespread intrusion of calc-alkaline plutons; the
topmost Cretaceous-Lower Tertiary shows the development of a fault and fold-thrust belt, magmatic activity
52
and strike-slip faulting. Along the South Shetland Islands, which are separated from the Antarctic Peninsula
by the Bransfield Strait, there is a range of metamorphic rocks assigned to the Scotia Metamorphic Complex
(Tanner et al., 1982). These metamorphic associations consist in part of greenschist, blueschist and other
high grade metamorphics. Therefore, many isotopic age determinations may reflect ages of penetrative
deformation and recrystallization rather than physical rock ages.
Zircon from different geological units, covering wide areas of the Antarctic Peninsula, yield Upper
Cretaceous fission track ages (in the range of 80-90 m.y.). Numerous isotopic dates (K/Ar, U-Pb and Rb-Sr
analyses) are available from plutonic rocks from the Antarctic Peninsula and adjacent islands (e.g., Grunow
et al., 1987; Storey et al., 1996; Sell et al., 2004, Brix et al., 2007; Ryan, 2012); age compilations suggest
magmatic and tectonic episodicity in different regions at specific times without an obvious trend – most ages
falling in the Upper Cretaceous-Lower Tertiary age range (100 to 50 m.y.). Thus, structural evidence and
isotopic age determinations indicate that the Antarctic Peninsula was strongly affected by intense shearing
(and irregular age resettings) along the Scotia Sea passage at that time, and palaeomagnetic evidence for a
pre-early Eocene tectonic bending of southern South America (Maffione et al., 2010) is consistent with that
view.
It seems that a significant part of Antarctica’s clockwise rotation, having produced strong tectonometamorphic activity along the narrow Antarctica-South America corridor, dates from the Upper Cretaceous
and Lower Tertiary. It follows that the counter- clockwise wrenching of the Australia-Antarctica block (see
Fig. 5), pre-dating Antarctica’s individual rotation commencing in the late Cretaceous, is likely to be of
Lower Cretaceous age. A reported volcanic event along the South Shetland Islands in the 130-110 m. y. age
range may perhaps reflect the transtensive condition following in the wake of the inferred motion of the
Australia-Antarctica block; if this reasoning is correct, one would expect that the same tectono-magmatic
event (at ca. 120 m.y.) would be found along its north-northeastern tectonic front – along the Fiji-Melanesia
transpressive zone (see below).
Though a major part of Antarctica’s clockwise rotation may have occurred between say 100 and 50 m. y.,
GPS velocity studies (e.g., Bouin and Vigny, 2000; Park et al., 2013) show that this motion is still taking
place. As with all other aspects of global tectonics, we are clearly concerned with an episodic rotation. For
example, meta-sediments of the southern part of the South Shetland Islands have yielded apatite fission track
ages between 33 m.y. (lowermost Oligocene) and 17 m.y. (Lower Miocene) (Brix et al., 2007), while Sell et
al. (2004) obtained apatite fission track ages of 25.8 to 18.8 m. y. for Livingston Island and 32.5 m.y. for
King George Island. Furthermore, a recent Ar-40/Ar-39 geo-chronological study (Ryan, 2012) reported
Oligocene-Miocene ages for dyke rocks from the Palmer Archipelago. This probably means that, at the time
that Antarctica acquired its present-day polar setting at around the Eocene-Oligocene boundary – some 34
m.y. ago (cf. Fig. 3), the Antarctic Peninsula was most likely facing the westernmost SW Pacific; since then,
the Peninsula has continued its stepwise (clockwise) rotation with the present-day tectono-magmatic activity
concentrated along the Scotia Arc (South Sandwich Islands). The seemingly intense tectonic straining
between Tasmania/South New Zealand and Antarctica (see Fig. 4) – apparently overprinting the Neogene
crustal deformation belt off southern Australia (see below) – may indicate that the late Tertiary motion of
Antarctica has been far from insignificant.
The oceanic and semi-continental collar around Australia; wrench tectonic signatures
As seen from Fig. 4, the Indian Ocean is surrounded by four continental masses experiencing relative
rotations – inertia-driven movements which in terms of tectonic motion are intimately linked to adjacent
thinly-crusted oceanic border belts. Thus, during global wrench tectonic events, the relatively deformable
oceanic parts (of the individual tectonic blocks) are bound to develop sheared ‘mid-ocean’ structural
discontinuities – along which ‘mid-ocean’ topographic ridges became elevated in Neogene times (Storetvedt,
2003). The Rodrigues Junction of the Central Indian Ocean – a triple point where the SW Indian Ridge,
Carlsberg Ridge and Central Indian ridges come together – finds a ready explanation.
According to the arguments presented above, two tectono-magmatic pulses would have been prevalent in the
surroundings of Australia, resulting from: (1) the Lower Cretaceous northward- directed counter-clockwise
wrenching of the combined Australia/Antarctica block, and (2) Australia’s separate counter-clockwise
rotation towards its present geographic orientation. Based on a variety of geological and geophysical
evidence, the latter tectonic event is primarily Middle Miocene and younger in age (Storetvedt, 2003,
Storetvedt and Longhinos, 2014a & b). Results from three DSDP sites (nos. 256, 257 & 260) in the eastern
53
Wharton Basin (Davies et al., 1974; Veevers et al., 1974) may catch the first-order tectono-magmatic pattern
for this region. Fig. 6 depicts the position of the three drilling sites, in water depths ranging between 5400 to
5700 m. Though the sites are located at variable distances from the Australian margin, the recovered
depositional sequences show the same general pattern: namely, a ca. 150 m thick sequence of Middle
Miocene-Recent deep-water clay (deposited below the CCD) lying on top of a few hundred metres of thick
Cretaceous claystone deposited in shallower water (above the CCD).
The oldest sediments drilled in the three sites are Middle Albian in age; they overlie cored basalts, but there
is no proper evidence that basement was reached. At site 260, the basalt is believed to be a sill of unknown
age (Robinson and Whitford, 1974): the grain size distribution and varying vertical character of the basalts
from the other two sites suggest that the recovered igneous material represent a mixture of highly altered
breccia and lava flows. The most ready explanation of the observations is that the eastern Wharton Basin was
subjected to a magmatic pulse around Middle Albian time – probably occurring at water depths well above
the carbonate compensation level. With respect to timing, this magmatic phase would correspond to the
inferred large-scale displacement of the combined Australia/Antarctica lithospheric unit demonstrated in Fig.
5; this northward-directed, counter-clockwise wrenching would naturally pressurize the underlying
asthenosphere causing hydrostatic elevation of the frontal zone – but the extent and duration of such uplift
would be impossible to estimate. However, the fact that there is an 80-100 m.y. time gap between the
recovered Cretaceous and late Neogene sedimentary sections suggests the presence of a major hiatus –
resulting from one or more stages of crustal uplift with erosion or non-deposition – superseded by a major
crustal foundering in middle-late Neogene times.
Fig. 6. Physiographic image of the Wharton Basin is from NOAA Satellites and Information. Yellow dots with
numbers denote DSDP drilling locations referred to in the text. Note how the Neogene counter-clockwise rotation of
Australia (yellow curved arrow) apparently corresponds to wrench tectonic effects in the Wharton Basin. Abbreviations
are: DFZ, Diamantina Fracture Zone; BR, Broken Ridge; N-E R, Ninety-East Ridge.
54
In a global perspective, the onset of the Neogene is characterized by a eustatic sea level rise (cf. Haq et al.,
1988), which most likely was directly associated with a pulse of oceanic crustal uplift. In the South Atlantic,
for example, the DSDP Leg 3 transect of the ocean (Maxwell et al., 1970) found a pronounced Middle
Neogene sedimentary break – after which the deep sea sedimentation was resumed. It is likely that such
uplift phases (of the oceanic basement) would be a product of underlying hydrostatic pressure increase –
triggering sub-crustal eclogitization, gravity-driven loss of crustal material to the upper mantle, and
eventually to foundering of surface basins. Thus, the suggested rapid subsidence of the Wharton Basin floor,
to its present deep water setting in the Middle Neogene, thinned and weakened the Wharton Basin crust prior
to Australia’s counter-clockwise rotation. However, this rotation led to further break-ups, reactivations and
deformations within the Basin – apparently producing transtensive condition across the entire Wharton Basin
(cf. Fig. 6); this would have led to (1) accelerated basement infiltration of hydrous fluids and (2) to
associated crustal thinning processes (cf. Storetvedt 2003, and references therein). Consistent with this
model, a recent reflection/refraction study in the north-western sector of the Wharton Basin, east of the
Ninety-East Ridge, arrived at a crustal thickness of only 3.5-4.5 km (Singh et al., 2011).
Fig. 7 illustrates how the fractured oceanic crust circumscribing Australia, defines extra-deep oceanic
regions (shown in purple). In addition to the Wharton Basin, Australia’s tectonic border zone includes a
broad deep sea belt off the Great Australian Bight and the southern Tasman Sea. The orientation of the
basement structures for the Wharton Basin and the Tasman Sea – with SW and NE, orientations respectively
– fit in well with the model of a rotating Australia. At a closer view of satellite-derived gravity anomalies
(Gaina et al., 1998), the NE trending shear system of the Tasman Sea can be seen cutting into the thickcrusted continental Lord Howe Rise. Further to the east, the Alpine Fault of southern New Zealand and its
presumed northward continuation along the Tonga-Kermadec Trench obviously represent an important
tectonic discontinuity, but the very deep adjacent SW Pacific – with its major shear zones bent towards the
Tonga-Kermadec Trench – is likely to have been strongly involved in the regional Cretaceous-Neogene
lithospheric wrenching.
According to the above arguments, in late Lower-early Upper Cretaceous time, the combined
Australia/Antarctica tectonic unit must have produced a significant transpressive frontal zone in the FijiSolomon Islands region besides being responsible for world’s largest geoid high (see Storetvedt and
Longhinos, 2014a). Furthermore, the accumulated asthenospheric pressure increase, in front of this motion,
is likely to have triggered the extensive late Mesozoic magmatic activity of the western Central Pacific –
covering the broad NW-SE oriented region which has been known as the Darwin Rise.
Within the hypothetical seafloor spreading context, the Ontong Java Plateau (OJP) is regarded as the most
voluminous of the world’s large igneous provinces - LIPs (Coffin and Eldholm, 1994; Mahoney and Coffin,
1997), but its structure, origin, and regional significance have remained contentious issues (for a review, see
Fitton et al., 2004). For example, the Ontong Java and Manihiki oceanic plateaus, being separated by nearly
2500 km (see Fig. 7), have nearly identical volcanic histories, including formative volcanic outpourings at
around 120-125 m. y. and secondary magmatic pulses at around 90-80 m. y. (e.g., Winterer et al., 1974;
Mahoney et al., 1993; Richardson et al., 2000; Tejada et al., 2002), and the Hikurangi Plateau (off New
Zealand) has been added to this type of oceanic structure (Mortimer and Parkinson, 1996). A recent
speculative proposal (Taylor, 2006) suggested that the Ontong Java (OJP), Manihiki (MP) and Hikurangi
(HP) plateaus – having similar volcanic ages and chemical compositions, velocity structure and submarine
emplacement histories – originally formed a united volcanic province that was somehow separated during the
late Cretaceous. However, in terms of available evidence, there is no good reason for all these plate
tectonics-related speculations.
Anomalously thick crust has been reported from many oceanic structures. Since both crustal structure and
Moho depth for many oceanic plateaus and aseismic ridges are continental-like, such as the OJP, authors like
Nur and Ben-Avraham (1982) have suggested they could be fragments of former continental crust. For the
OJP, Moho depth estimates averages 33 km (Gladczenko et al., 1997, Richardson et al. 2000), and from a
seismic tomography study Richardson et al. (2000) detected a significant low-velocity mantle root
underlying the plateau – extending to a depth of at least 300 km and being 1200 km across. Such deep-rooted
structures were originally proposed for continental regions (Jordan, 1975). Volcaniclastic rocks recovered
from the three plateaus (OJP, MP and HP) suggest that they erupted from shallow-water late-stage volcanoes
which probably were sub-aerial in places (Beiersdorf et al., 1995; Thordarson, 2004).
55
Richardson et al. (2000) concluded that the thickest OJP crust (38 km) occurs in the south-central part of the
plateau, while a gradually shallower Moho is observed towards the adjacent thin-crusted deep sea basins.
Such gradual crustal attenuation/delamination away from a central and relatively intact, presumably
continental, core (caused by increasing sub-crustal eclogitization and associated gravity-driven loss of crustal
material to the upper mantle) is a common feature of most continental-oceanic transition zones (for North
Atlantic examples, see Storetvedt and Longhinos, 2011). Perhaps the most important factor in crustal
eclogitization/attenuation processes is the presence of hydrous fluids escaping from the mantle (Storetvedt,
2003). As rising fluids will principally follow major fracture zones, linear zones of thinner crust would be the
natural outcome. This principle is well demonstrated for the OJP: the plateau is cut by the mega-scale NWWNW trending Fiji-Melanesian tectonic lineament and in the study by Richardson et al. (2000, see their fig.
7) markedly thinner crust occurs in linear belts along the regional tectonic grain.
Fig. 7. Illustration shows a cut from satellite-derived Earth topography (from the National Geophysical Data Center,
Denver) showing bathymetry, sea floor structures, and the regional complexity of rises/plateaus subdivided by elongate
basins. Note, in particular, the wavy shape of the Lord Howe Rise and the complex transpressive front along the FijiSolomon Islands sector. The southward fanning-out shape of the Tasman Sea, located between Australia and New
Zealand, is consistent with the counter-clockwise wrenching histories adhered to here. Abbreviations are: OJP, OntongJava Plateau; MP, Manihiki Plateau; HP, Hikurangi Plateau; CR, Chatham Rise. Black triangles point in the direction of
tectonic dip.
From the available evidence the Ontong Java, Manihiki, and Hikurangi plateaus are unlikely to represent
Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs) which are a plate tectonics inflicted notion); rather, they constitute regions of
moderately assimilated continental crust having variable covers of 120-90 m.y. old basalt extrusions brought
about by counter-clockwise wrenching of the southern palaeo-lithosphere. In addition to this peak of late
Lower-early Upper Cretaceous volcanic activity along the Fiji-Solomon Islands transpressive front – most
likely also being responsible for the widespread volcanism in the western Pacific at that time, the broad
region between Australia and New Zealand/Campbell Plateau/Kermadec-Tonga Trench (to the east) was
seemingly involved in the various regional Cretaceous-Neogene wrench tectonic phases. As a result, a
variety of curved and fan-shaped sub-basins, interleaved by quasi-continental ridges, evolved (cf. Fig. 7).
Fig. 8 illustrates a SW-NE crustal cross-section from the northern Lord Howe Rise across the New
Caledonia Basin and the Norfolk Rise. It is now commonly conceded that the linear basins of this region –
Fairway Basin and New Caledonia Basin, developed on a thinned continental crust (Klingelhoefer et al.,
2007, and references therein). In the wrench tectonic interpretation, the entire region represents variably
attenuated continental crust within which crustal thicknesses depend on the density of shearing fractures:
basins corresponding to more fractured crustal sections than rises.
56
Within the inferred Fiji-Melanesian transpressive zone, there will naturally be imprints of high-pressure
metamorphic rocks. Thus, numerous allochthonous massifs of serpentinites and harzburgites of upper mantle
provenance occur along New Caledonia; though the original age of these ophiolitic rocks has remained
controversial (cf. Auzende et al., 2000) – Eissen et al. (1998) suggested an early Upper Cretaceous age.
According to the latter authors, an older group of dykes, with K-Ar ages of 80-100 m.y. (Prinzhofer et al.,
1980), crosscut harzburgites, and must therefore postdate a (pre-) Upper Cretaceous formation of the
ophiolite. Though the age of the peak metamorphic condition has remained unclarified, Baldwin et al. (1999)
reported Ar-39/Ar-40 ages on phengites in the range of 40-34 m.y., K-feldspar Ar-39/Ar-40 ages of 37-34
m.y., and an apatite fission track age of 34±4 m.y. These age estimates bring us to the Eocene-Oligocene
boundary which is a time characterized by a major event of true polar wander – with its associated resetting
of the equatorial bulge – causing a world-wide unconformity in marine sedimentation, including the New
Caledonia region (cf. Nouzé et al., 2009). As the tectonic disturbance resulting from the Eocene-Oligocene
polar wander event would have had its peak in the (palaeo-) equatorial region (see Fig. 1), it seems
reasonable to suppose that this dynamo-tectonic unrest also led to high-pressure metamorphism and age
resetting of the New Caledonia Upper Cretaceous ophiolites.
Fig. 8. Velocity model with estimated crustal thicknesses for a seismic transect from northern Lord Howe Rise to New
Caledonia/Norfolk Rise – simplified after Klingelhoefer et al. (2007).
Following the widespread tectonic discordance at the Eocene/Oligocene boundary, a major regional tectonomagmatic upheaval began in the early Miocene – brought about by the counter-clockwise rotation of the
Australia/New Zealand/Melanesia block (Storetvedt, 1997 and 2003; Storetvedt and Longhinos, 2014), a
motion which according to regional GPS velocity data is still taking place (cf. Storetvedt and Longhinos,
2014b, fig. 1). Thus, along the tectonic shear system of the Solomon Islands, there are numerous centres of
Plio-Pleistocene and active volcanism (cf. Petterson et al., 1999). A north-south trending Neogene seamount
chain, consisting of islands, reefs, guyots and banks, occurs on Lord Howe Rise; it extends northwards for
about 1000 km from Lord Howe Island to the Chesterfield Island group. Alkaline basalts from Lord Howe
Island have given K/Ar ages of ca. 6.5 m.y. Another Neogene chain – the Tasmantid seamounts located in
the middle of the Tasman Basin – has given a northward age trend from 6.4 m.y. in the south (Gascoyne
Seamount) to 24 m.y. for Queensland Seamount in the north (McDougal and Duncan, 1988).
There is now general agreement that Lord Howe Rise (LHR) represents thinned continental crust. According
to Wilcox et al. (1980), the Rise is built on a Palaeozoic basement with Tasman Fold Belt affinities. In MesoCaenozoic times, the LHR was affected by acid volcanism. Thus, isotopic dating of rhyolites from DSDP site
207 arrived at an age of extrusion of ca. 95 m.y. (McDougall and Van der Lingen, 1974). Adding to other
evidence for a continental basement covering a wider region of the SW Pacific, even the Tonga-Kermadec
arc has a greater number of records of felsic volcanism, including large-scale caldera-forming eruptions of a
style characteristic of continental settings (for a summary, see Smith et al., 2003). It seems reasonable to
conclude therefore that the major province of linear basins and sub-aerial ridges of the SW Pacific, between
continental Australia and the Tonga-Kermadec Ridge, has been affected by the counter-clockwise wrenching
in Upper Cretaceous and Neogene-Recent times. Resulting from these phases of lithospheric attenuation and
57
tectonic deformation, the assembly of basins and rises has been twisted into a gentle S-shaped structure; in
the Fiji sector, Malahoff et al. (1982) reported palaeomagnetic data favouring a regional counter-clockwise
rotation of around 90˚ in late/post Miocene time (cf. Fig. 7).
Internal wrenching of continental Australia: lithospheric structure and tectonic reactivations
It is a well-established fact that the Earth’s surface morphology is strongly controlled by the ubiquitous
orthogonal fracture system. As demonstrated in a recent article in this journal (Storetvedt and Longhinos
2014b, fig. 2), the characteristic surface joint/fracture populations for Australia have NNE-SSW and WNWESE orientations respectively. According to wrench tectonic theory, prominent members of these rectilinear
structures may extend throughout the whole crust, and the rate of sub-crustal eclogitization and associated
gravity loss of crustal material to the upper mantle would have depended on factors such as (1) the degree of
fracture density and (2) on which of the two rectilinear fracture systems is the regionally more predominant
(Storetvedt, 2003). Just as for modern aseismic ridges with their relatively deep keel-like roots, which may
be regarded as remnants of relatively un-fractured continental crust, the detailed thickness variation of the
deep continental crust ought to display similar keel-like structures. Such theoretical prognosis is well
demonstrated for the Australian craton for which a central deep crustal keel has been identified (Goleby et
al., 1998; Goncharov, 2001). Fig. 9 depicts the ‘first-order’ Moho depth variation across the continent. The
deep density/velocity keel along the Mount Isa transect of northern Australia tends to extend to at least 10
km below the average regional Moho depth. Furthermore, the central SSW-NNE directed Moho-keel
displays a gentle bend – consistent with an internal deformation of the Australian craton brought about the
counter-clockwise rotations of the continent during Meso-Caenozoic times.
According to the wrench tectonic theory, thinning of the continental crust, towards an oceanic mode, would
naturally show up as progressive attenuation in lithosphere thickness towards the surrounding thin-crusted
oceanic regions. Consistent with this prognosis is a recent seismic tomography study (Fishwick et al. 2008)
of eastern Australia which found an overall thinning of the lithosphere, in a stepwise manner, towards the
Tasman Sea – from more than 200 km in the interior continent to only 50 km along the eastern margin. Fig.
10 gives a schematic presentation of the published results. The authors concluded that “the structure on the
eastern margin of the continent is dominated by slow velocities, suggesting that in this area the continental
lithosphere is very thin. There is a strong correlation between the slow wave speeds and the location of both
the highest topography and recent volcanic activity”. The south-eastern margin of Australia represents a
branch of the palaeoequator-aligned Middle Palaeozoic fold belt (see Storetvedt & Longhinos 2014b, fig. 3)
along which deep vertical shear zones are likely to have developed (Storetvedt, 1997 and 2003). The narrow
continental shelf and steep slope off south-eastern Australia are likely to be products of the old system of
shear faults – having been reactivated during the Meso-Caenozoic delamination/ subsidence history of the
Tasman Sea basement.
58
Fig. 9 The variation in Moho depth for Australia – simplified from a compilation by Goncharov (2001). Note how the
deep Moho ‘roots’ – shown by median blue to violet colour, extending to maximum depths of about 60 km – tend to
form an orthogonal pattern (like regional surface joint populations, see Storetvedt and Longhinos 2014b, fig. 2). In
addition, the central SSW-NNE oriented Moho depression shows a gently curved shape consistent with the inferred
events of Meso-Caenozoic counter-clockwise rotation of Australia (indicated by curved red arrow).
The volcanic activity along the eastern margin of Australia peaked in the Upper Cretaceous (Bryan et al.,
2012: ca. 110-90 m.y.) and Miocene-Recent (Finn et al., 2005) time, respectively. Hence, the magmatic
history of eastern Australia represents the two principal phases of wrench rotation of the Australia/New
Zealand/Melanesia block – reactivating the deep Middle Palaeozoic fracture system and thereby clearing the
way for surface volcanism. However, Fig. 10 (left hand diagram) shows that, from Victoria in the south to
northern Queensland, the distribution of volcanic centres and lava fields has a significantly curved shaped –
consistent with the wrench tectonic model adhered to here. In comparison with the modest torsion of the
thick (> 200 km) lithosphere of Central Australia, suggested by the gently curved Moho-keel (Fig. 9), the
much thinner lithosphere of eastern Australia (ca. 50 km) has apparently undergone much stronger counterclockwise deformation – during which the old rectilinear fault system obtained its present bow-shape. In
addition, the geomorphic features of the continental margin of eastern Australia and the southward fanningout shape of the Tasman Sea (apparently formed by crustal delamination in a transtensive regime around a
pivot point in the northern end of the Sea, cf. Fig. 7) find ready explanations within the proposed global
tectonic system.
59
Fig. 10. Schematic presentation of the lithosphere structure for eastern Australia – simplified after Fishwick et al.
(2008). Note the stepwise changes (probably fault-controlled) of lithosphere thickness towards the Tasman Sea –
suggesting that wrenching and related lithospheric/sub-crustal delamination increases eastward. Note also the marked
curvature in the distribution of Upper Mesozoic-Recent lava fields and volcanic centres – interpreted here as having
been triggered by fault reactivation during phases of regional counter-clockwise lithospheric wrenching (indicated by
large curved arrow). Red squares denote main volcanoes while open squares represent lava fields.
Closing remarks
As I have repeatedly stated in my papers over the past 25 years, there can be little doubt that the plate
tectonics hypothesis has led global geology and geophysics into a deep intellectual dead-end. The crisisridden state of the ‘art’ was already a fact some 30 years ago – despite all the Deep Sea Drilling efforts to
confirm the seafloor spreading mechanism which failed miserably. But that alarming situation was not
openly admitted. Instead of critical and open scientific evaluation and reconsideration, the celebrated but
deficient plate tectonic model was subjected to seductive propaganda – celebrated in chatty television and
popular science magazines as being a great revelation for understanding the Earth. School and college text
books have been and still are doing their best to maintain the ingrained habit of promoting this ineffectual
hypothesis accompanied by the related academic jargon. The majority of Earth scientists themselves are
adept (consciously or unconsciously) in using jargon to express what they regard as self-evident. By
implication, they pretend to have confidence in the big picture – to conceal the fact that they are actually
relying on a confusing mélange of true and false facts, supposedly supporting the plate tectonics paradigm.
Thereby, many unbiased researchers are deprived of the opportunity of reassessing the state-of-the-art.
Masses of data will remain amorphous and largely meaningless unless the Earth science community have, to
its disposal, an intellectually satisfying theory into which it can organize and filter the immense diversity of
observations. Such a functional theory of the Earth must encompass all hard facts (without continuously
invoking ad hoc fixes), linking the plethora of available information into a structured and comprehensible
pattern (creating unity from observational complexity), with the capacity of being verifiable by crucial
experimental and observational tests. With the advent of Global Wrench Tectonics, this paper – together with
two other recent articles (Storetvedt and Longhinos, 2014a & b) – has tried to establish a coherent picture of
some of the central questions pertaining to the younger geological history of the Southern Hemisphere,
namely (1) the structural evolution of Australasia – the tectonically most complex region in the world, and
(2) the long-standing puzzle of the Australia/Antarctica tectonic relationship. By employing the new
dynamo-tectonic framework, the bundle of modern observations and classical facts has established a new
system of phenomenological interconnections.
Acknowledgements
I am very grateful to Chris Argent, London, for his helpful editorial efforts, and Frank Cleveland and daughter Inger
Helen for help with the illustrations.
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63
SHORT COMMUNICATION
CERES’ TWO-FACE NATURE: EXPRESSIVE SUCCESS OF THE WAVE
PLANETOLOGY
Gennady G. KOCHEMASOV
Kochem.36@mail.ru
Abstract: Global images of the dwarf planet Ceres acquired by the DAWN spacecraft in January-February 2015 clearly
show its dichotomous appearance. Rugged surface opposes rather smooth one. This tectonic peculiarity had been
predicted earlier, a year before the mentioned pictures were obtained (Kochemasov, 2014). The prediction is based on
the wave planetology stating that all cosmic bodies moving in keplerian non-round orbits and rotating are warped by the
fundamental inertia-gravity waves making one hemisphere to uplift and the opposite to subside. This action, confirmed
by Ceres, was observed in many cases concerning cosmic bodies of various classes, sizes, masses, and compositions.
Only the wave planetology can explain this fundamental fact.
Keywords: Ceres, tectonic dichotomy, wave planetology, global crossing lineations, Pluto
Observations and results
T
ectonically dichotomous nature of Ceres which was predicted earlier is obvious even in the first distant
observations of the Dawn spacecraft (Figs. 1-3). Two faces of Ceres – in almost 1000 km wide sphere
with diminished density - appear as a relatively smooth hemisphere which is surrounded by many rugged
crater forms. As shown in many former publications (Kochemasov, 1992-2014), tectonically and chemically
dichotomous cosmic bodies are due to their movement in keplerian non-circular orbits with periodically
changing accelerations. Arising inertia-gravity forces warp the bodies by standing waves. Among them the
fundamental wave 1 inscribed in the great planetary circle inevitably presses one hemisphere and bulges out
the opposite one. Thus, two faces adorn any cosmic body. It seems that Ceres appears to have a different
dichotomous scheme from Martian and terrestrial scheme (West–East or SW-NE opposition is present).
White spots on its smoothed hemisphere could represent covered with frozen volcanic features which were
squeezed out from depths. Chains of crater forms, mostly with the wave origin, cover the rugged hemisphere
and preferably follow along intercrossing planetary lineations. This relation was seen earlier on much smaller
cosmic bodies such as asteroid Itokawa and comet Hartley. Planetary wide intercrossing fields of lineations
are clearer in Figure 2. The wave planetology is an appropriate scientific tool to explain structural
peculiarities of the magnificent cosmic body – dwarf planet Ceres.
Fig .1 Ceres from 83000 km distance. February 12, 2015. 150212-PIA19056.jpg.
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2
3
Fig. 2. Ceres from 46000 km distance, February 19, 2015. CeresBig_LR.
Fig. 3. Ceres in half shadow, PIA19310_ip.jpg, Distance 40000 km, February 25, 2015.
Credit: NASA/JPL/Caltech/UCLA/MPS/DLR/IDA.
In July 2015 the New Horizons cosmic probe of NASA will show specific features of the double planet
Pluto-Charon (Fig. 4). The first image (only 10-15 pixels! - distance about 200 millions km) (Fig. 5),
however, already hints at a slightly oblong and asymmetric shape of Pluto. Future more distinct data should
provide another solid confirmation of the wave planetology.
4
5
Fig. 4. Pluto and Charon as seen with ALMA (Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array) on July 15, 2014. Radio
emissions from their cold surfaces (-230 degrees Celsius). Credit: NRAO/AUI/NSF. GIF.
Fig. 5. Pluto from distance 202976400 km. First New Horizon image 15-018.JPG, January 28, 2015, NH LORRI
OPNAV CAMPAIGN 2, (courtesy of HASA)
Conclusion
Common global tectonics – two-face dichotomy - of drastically different cosmic bodies (e.g., “heavy”
massive hot Earth and “light” low massiveness cold Ceres; small asteroids and huge planets) implies a
common structuring force – the orbital energy. Widespread false tectonic hypothesis like “plate tectonics”
and “earlier giant impacts” must be rejected
References:
Kochemasov, G.G., 1992. Concerted wave supergranulation of the solar system bodies.16th Russian-American
microsymposium on planetology, Abstracts, Moscow, Vernadsky Inst. (GEOKHI), p. 36-37.
Kochemasov, G.G., 1998. Tectonic dichotomy, sectoring and granulation of Earth and other celestial bodies.
Proceedings of the International Symposium on New Concepts in Global Tectonics, “NCGT-98 TSUKUBA”,
Geological Survey of Japan, Tsukuba, Nov 20-23, 1998, p. 144-147.
Kochemasov, G.G., 1999. Theorems of wave planetary tectonics. Geophys. Res. Abstr. 1999. v. 1, no. 3, p. 700.
Kochemasov, G.G., 2014. From Vesta to Ceres: predicting spectacular dichotomous convexo-concave shape for the
largest mini-planet in the main asteroid belt. Vesta in the light of Dawn: first exploration of a protoplanet in the
Asteroid Belt, Febr. 3-4, 2014, Houston, Texas, LPI Contribution # 1773, Abstract # 2003. pdf
65
DISCUSSIONS
Re: Steven Hurrell: A new method to calculate paleogravity using fossil feathers.
NCGT Journal, v. 3, no. 4, p. 29-34.
Earth Expansion and Thick Air for Ancient Birds
Robert J. TUTTLE
rjtuttle@earthlink.net
A
recent discussion caught my attention (Stephen W. Hurrell: A new method to calculate paleogravity
using fossil feathers, and reply. Robert Arthur Beatty and Stephen Hurrell, NCGT Journal, v. 2, no. 4,
December 2014). Fossils should tell us about the ancient world and this discussion approaches the subject of
the flight of ancient birds and gravity on a smaller, expanding Earth. Stephen Hurrell proposes that the Earth
was appreciably smaller in mass at that time, so that surface gravity was significantly less than now, allowing
the dinosaurs to grow large, and the ancient birds to fly (“Dinosaurs and the Expanding Earth”, Third
Edition, Oneoff Publishing, Great Britain 2011, and A new method to calculate paleogravity using fossil
feathers, NCGT Journal, v. 2, no. 3, September 2014). I have proposed a different mechanism, buoyant
support by a much denser atmosphere on a smaller, but constant-mass Earth (“The Fourth Source – Effects of
Natural Nuclear Reactors”, Universal-Publishers, Boca Raton 2012).
To explain this possibility, it may be useful to summarize a mechanism for allowing the Earth to expand with
constant mass. This summary may be of value by itself, in responding to the objections that there is no
possible mechanism for the Earth to expand. From what I have seen in many discussions and presentations
of the theory of Earth Expansion, starting in my case with Sam Carey’s book, “Theories of the Earth and
Universe” (1988), I have been impressed that the geophysical observations fit Earth Expansion rather better
than they fit Plate Tectonics. It appears to me that Plate Tectonics with slab subduction even has some
contradictions with its proposed processes. However, much as it was with Alfred Wegener’s observational
theory of Continental Drift (“The Origin of Continents and Oceans”, (1928, Dover 1966)), Earth Expansion
has been rejected as “physically impossible” for lack of a physically possible mechanism for expansion
amounting to about 1.5 to 3.8 times in diameter, 3.6 to 53 times in volume. A variety of mechanisms have
been proposed over the years, but all seem to be either physically impossible (according to our current
understanding of physics) or bear an unbearable burden of implausibility. (Admittedly, plausibility is in the
eye of the beholder.) Here, I present the development of a mechanism that is based on the recognition of a
significant and erroneous assumption in our standard theory of the formation of the Solar System.
In the standard theory, developed from the “nebular hypothesis” of Pierre-Simon Laplace (1796, with earlier
antecedents), an interstellar cloud of gas and dust, resulting from the material ejected in the explosion of a
supernova (or several), cools, shrinks, and collapses by its own gravity, forming the Sun. The cloud
contained all the material that we can now see in the Solar System: the Sun, the planets and their satellites,
the asteroids, meteorites, and comets, and dispersed gas and dust. As the ambient temperature of the
Universe is thought to be about 3 K, from measurements of the Cosmic Microwave Background, the cloud
cooled to a very low temperature, generally thought to be about 100 K. In the standard theory, because of its
low temperature, the gas of the cloud is transparent to thermal radiation, and the heat of compression that is
generated by the shrinkage and the gravitational collapse escapes directly to space, as rapidly as it is
produced. The temperature of the gas remains low, no “back-pressure” is generated until the last stage when
the momentum of the in-falling gas overcomes the increasing temperature and pressure, the Sun is formed at
sufficient density for nuclear fusion reactions, the shock-wave of the collapse ignites those reactions, and the
protosun becomes a star.
The initial burst of radiation from the new star-sun blows the remaining gas out of the inner Solar System to
the region where the gas-giant planets will form, leaving only dust to form the inner planets, that we call
rocky or terrestrial. The dust coagulated into planetesimals which collide to form planets. In a region just
beyond the orbit of Mars, the planetesimals were unable to combine, most were ejected from the Solar
System, and only the asteroids remain. The gas-giant planets (including the sometimes-called ice-giants)
formed by rapid capture of the residual gas (and ices) onto the planetary cores formed from planetesimals.
Comets condensed farther out, from the leftover material of the cloud.
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All of this seemingly random and chaotic process resulted in planets (and the asteroids) distributed in a
remarkably precise and regular sequence called the Titius-Bode Law.
There are some recognized problems with this theory: the angular momentum is wrong, the regular spacing
can’t be explained, the orbits are nearly circular, in the same plane, and in the same direction, how did dust
grains accrete, and how did the Sun ignite.
However, the unrecognized flaw in this theory starts at the very beginning, when the cloud is thought to be
perfectly transparent because of its low temperature, which is correct by itself, except for the fact that the
cloud is filled with radioactive materials. All the radioactive materials (and much more) in the Earth and
throughout the Solar System were created by the supernova(s) that contributed to the protosolar cloud.
Nuclear radiation from the radioactive materials ionized the gas, producing free electrons. Free electrons
absorb and scatter thermal radiation, making the cloud opaque to its self-generated heat of compression,
trapping the thermal radiation, increasing its internal temperature and pressure, so that the shrinkage cannot
proceed to gravitational collapse. The Sun cannot form first.
On the contrary, the planets form first, in a sequence starting from the outside of the cloud. As the outside of
the cloud cools to 90 K, the gaseous compounds methane (CH4) and silane (SiH4), abundant materials in the
cloud, begin to condense on dust grains, forming a sticky coating that makes the grains adhere in collisions,
rather than bouncing off.
An initial parcel of gas becomes established at the outer edge of the cloud, and starts to orbit the center of
mass. This establishes the orbital plane in which all subsequent planets, and ultimately, the Sun, will form.
As this nascent protoplanet orbits the cloud, increasing amounts of sticky dust are accumulated, until it
becomes massive enough to capture gas molecules and form an atmosphere.
While the protoplanet had been bare, all the energy from accretion was radiated away, with the cold of space
at 3 K on one side and the warm cloud at 100 K on the other, so the average temperature might have been 30
K. The growing atmosphere acted as an insulating blanket, keeping in the surface heat from subsequent
impacts, and eventually, the surface began to melt. This continued through the later growth of the
protoplanet, and the surface became covered with a molten rock ocean, with the lighter silica floating to the
top and heavier basalt and heavy elements sinking to the bottom.
As the protoplanet grew larger, its gravitational attraction collected material from greater distances, and
induced a tidal bulge in the cloud. This bulge grew and was pulled away from the cloud to orbit the
protoplanet and became one of its large moons. (This is how Earth’s Moon formed, matching the other six
similar satellites.) This process was repeated until the cloud had shrunk out of reach of the protoplanet’s
gravity, but still retaining a lump of material induced by the gravity of the protoplanet, orbiting the cloud in
the same direction and orbital plane as the just-formed protoplanet.
The planet-forming process was repeated, but each next protoplanet was more massive, drawing material
from the edge of an increasingly dense cloud. An atmosphere was collected, the surface melted, large moons
were formed, and the cloud shrank out of reach. In our Solar System, at least 10 protoplanets with satellites
were formed in this manner, each progressively more massive as it was closer to the center, with deeper
molten silica oceans, and thicker atmospheres.
Eventually, the cloud became small enough for the heat of compression to escape, and the Sun was finally
formed by gravitational collapse. It is likely that ignition was aided by the production of neutrons by nuclear
fission in natural nuclear reactors throughout the Sun. At about 4.5 billion years ago, the uranium-235
content was about 24%, and accumulations of uranium would have easily become nuclear reactors.
(Uranium-235 is the easily fissioned isotope of uranium.)
The first step in the standard fusion series that powers the Sun, proton-proton fusion, is so slow it has never
been achieved experimentally. However, a proton will fuse with a neutron to make deuterium almost
immediately, releasing energy (but no neutrinos), and the rest of the nuclear fusion sequence proceeds
relatively quickly, starting with the newly formed deuterium.
The radiation burst produced by this rapid ignition of the Sun blows away the atmospheres of at least the four
innermost planets, that would become Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars, and perhaps the fifth planet, which I
67
have labeled Asteria, that later became the fragments that we call asteroids.
When the insulating and enshrouding atmospheres were blown away, the molten silica oceans boiled away
into space, leaving the kernels of the protoplanets, to begin their life as rocky, terrestrial planets. This left
the Earth, specifically, that had formed as a gas giant planet with approximately 515 times the mass of the
present Earth, as a supercompressed kernel.
I think the primordial radius of that kernel is poorly defined at present, and hope that this discussion may
improve on the disagreement between James Maxlow’s carefully developed value of 1700 km and my
modification to 4174 km.
This small Earth consisted of an outer shell of silica, that would become fragmented into continents as the
Earth expanded, overlying a basaltic mantle, with most of everything else in a core. This material, that had
been at the bottom of a 515 Earth-mass planet, consisted of superdense mineral lattices, locked in place with
nowhere to expand. Expansion may occur somewhat continuously, the source and result of deep
earthquakes, and episodically, induced by major impacts from space. Episodes of expansion are well shown
by the sealevel curves initially developed by Peter Vail at Exxon Research.
Those curves typically show an abrupt drop in sealevel (expansion by impact) followed by a more gradual
“asymptotic” rise as the ocean basins are refilled by new volcanic water, and then another drop, and rise,
repeated many times. (Oceanographers have claimed that submarine volcanoes don’t release water as the
dry-land volcanoes do, because “the oceans would have overflowed”. But not if the Earth expands, widening
the ocean basins.)
The cumulative sequence of identified impact craters from 550 million years ago to about 170 million years
ago is well matched by the cumulative sequence of sealevel drops, about 200 occurrences of each. After 170
million years ago, the number of impact craters progressively exceeds the number of sealevel drops. This
may be due to better discovery of more recent impact craters, or it may indicate that the remaining
superdense regions are being depleted, leaving little future expansion. The expansions induced by impacts
are not spherically symmetric, as is the inflation of a balloon, but occur mainly in material on the opposite
side of the Earth from the impact. Shockwaves, especially the rarefaction phase, are concentrated there,
giving room for the mineral lattice to relax, following its energizing by the compressional phase.
This asymmetric expansion leads to the latitudinal drift of the continents that has placed most of the land in
the northern hemisphere, with most of the oceans in the southern hemisphere. Impacts on land produce
strong shockwaves which are effective in causing expansion under the southern ocean, while the shockwaves
produced by impacts into the southern ocean are less likely to cause expansion of the northern continental
crust. Thus, the oceans expand more than the continents, and the continents are less likely to break apart.
Accommodation of a spherical shape required by gravitational equilibrium provides the major drifting force
for the continents. Impact-induced expansion, being asymmetric, results in realignment of ocean volumes,
causing major tsunamis that flow over the continents.
Oceanic slab subduction in conventional Plate Tectonics is replaced in this version of Earth Expansion by
continental superduction. As a continental region is uplifted by expansion, its margins overflow onto the
adjacent oceanic crust. The resulting geologic structures are the same, it is just the process and the sense of
direction that is different.
That sets the scene for Mesozoic life, lifeforms that were far too big to live on the present Earth, with the
present gravity, in our thin air.
If the Earth were actually smaller in the Mesozoic (smaller at all times prior to the present), and the Earth
had constant mass after the major loss of material following the ignition of the Sun (a key assumption that I
see no plausible way around), surface gravity would have been about 4.5 times that at present using
Maxlow’s expansion or about 1.7 times greater using my modification of his expansion curve. Such great
force would clearly make life unbearable for large animals, and eliminate all possibility of flight.
However, buoyant support in a denser fluid works well for modern whales in our oceans of water, and
something similar might suffice for ancient giants (and birds and pterodactyls). Consider the present Earth
reduced in size to Maxlow’s value or mine. The surface density of air would be increased by a factor of 4.5
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(Maxlow) or 1.7 (mine), by the compression of the atmosphere due to the increase in surface gravity, and
further increased by a factor of 4.5 (Maxlow) or 1.7 (mine) by being spread over a smaller surface area on a
smaller Earth. Thus, the surface air density would be 20.25 (Maxlow) or 2.89 (mine) times denser than now.
Those values of air density (26 kg/m3 or 3.7 kg/m3) are still too small compared to the density of water (as a
representative for animal flesh, 1000 kg/m3) to provide significant buoyancy.
What if the ancient atmosphere had been more massive? The atmosphere of Venus, a planet somewhat
similar to Earth, is about 94 times as massive as Earth’s, and Titan, a moon of Saturn, much smaller than
Earth, has an atmosphere that is 4.3 times as dense as Earth’s.
That possibility led me to consider a more massive atmosphere, sufficient to support the largest animals. For
Argentinosaurus (95 Myr) compared to the present African elephant, after correcting for the greater strength
of larger leg bones, an atmosphere more massive by a factor of 278 would suffice. For Tyrannosaurus rex
(67.5 Myr) compared to a modern tiger, 352 times as much air would do. (Admittedly, these numbers are far
more precise than is warranted by the accuracy of the estimation.) Such thick air would also provide buoyant
support to the ancient birds and pterodactyls that don’t seem to be able to take off or fly in thin air.
An objection to the thick air of this proposal (about 62% the density of water), that winds such as we
experience would sweep animals off their feet and defoliate trees, has been raised and, I think, answered by
review of the Soviet exploration of Venus by their Venera landers. Doppler tracking and anemometers on
two of the landers showed that the surface winds were in the range of 0.65 to 2.2 mph, “reduced by the thick
air”, and would provide the same wind pressure as winds on the Earth, in our thin air, with speeds of less
than 16 mph. That is not likely to be disruptive.
The key features of this interpretation of an expanding Earth with constant mass are the selection of
comparably similar animals from then and now, the radius of the Earth at the selected time, correction for leg
strength, and a willingness to accept a more massive atmosphere in the distant past.
The foundation of this discussion rests entirely on the recognition of the effect of radioactivity in the
protosolar cloud, making gravitational collapse impossible. All else that follows is, I think, straightforward
logic, ending with the proposal that the Earth’s atmosphere in ancient times was far more massive than
today.
I greatly appreciate discussions with Robert A. Beatty and Stephen W. Hurrell which alerted me to the wind
pressure problem, and led to its clarification.
Robert J. Tuttle
Moorpark, California, USA
rjtuttle@earthlink.net
********************
Comment on Stephen W. Hurrell:
A new method to calculate paleogravity using fossil feathers
NCGT Journal, v. 2, no. 3, p. 29-34.
Giovanni P. GREGORI
IDASC (CNR), Roma, Italy, and IEVPC
e-mail: giovanni.gregori@idasc.cnr.it, giovanni.gregori@alice.it
F
ollowing the comment by Robert Arthur Beatty and the reply by Stephen W. Hurrell, I support the point
stressed by Robert Arthur Beatty. The mechanical performance of feathers, which is insufficient for
flight inside the present atmosphere, could be explained also by a larger palaeodensity of air.
It is correct to state that “the lift generated by a bird's wing must always equal its weight for it to achieve
level flight.” But, I cannot share the statement that “the force on the wing, or a particular feather, must
therefore remain the same whatever the air density.”
Indeed, consider the Archimedean force. It is well known that one can walk on a lava flow without sinking,
69
or that you can float in the Dead Sea even while not swimming. If air density is larger, the Archimedean
force experienced by a flying animal is larger, thus the mechanical performance required by feathers is
reduced, or even cancelled when air density hypothetically equals the density of the animal.
Therefore, perhaps, the palaeodensity of the atmosphere changed. A review is in preparation. The sparse
information is spread over the literature dealing with several disciplines. I will appreciate feedbacks by every
reader. The biosphere, owing to its large variety of living forms, is a potential important proxy datum for
monitoring eventual changes of air palaeodensity.
Hurrell (2014) claims that "Nudds and Dyke calculated the body mass of Archaeopteryx and Confuciusornis
respectively as 0.276 kg and 0.5 kg based on their size in relation to modern birds. They also estimated the
downward force required so the feathers were 'strong enough to sustain a force equal to their body weight' as
equivalent to a mass of 0.188 kg and 0.215 kg respectively in today's gravity."
He assumes that palaeogravity was less, and thus he can "calculate palaeogravity. . . by assuming that . . . in
a reduced gravity the weight (mass × gravity) would be reduced to the appropriate level required for flight.
So ancient gravity (ga) can be calculated from
ga = Fa/Mp
where Fa is taken as the maximum ancient force produced by the birds' wings, and Mp is the mass of the
bird."
Thus, he evaluates ga = 0.68 and ga = 0.43 for Archaeopteryx (i.e. 145 Ma ago) and Confuciusornis (i.e. 120
Ma ago), respectively.
The flying capability of fossil birds could, however, have been improved by a denser atmosphere, as the
larger Archimedean buoyancy force had implied a smaller mechanical stress on feathers. Since the force
applied to feathers is proportional to gravity, and inversely proportional to air density - and if the
aforementioned assumptions are reasonably akin to reality - the palaeodensity of the Earth's atmosphere was,
respectively, ∼1/0.68 = 1.47 and ∼1/0.43 = 2.33 times the present density. These estimates ought to
correspond to ∼ 5.3 and ∼ 4.4 Earth's heartbeats ago, respectively, where every heartbeat lasts 27.4 Ma
(Gregori, 2002, 2006 and 2009).
It is well known that the solar wind exploits an effective spoiling action on every planetary object that is not
protected by the shield of a magnetosphere. The review, however, of the evidence of this effect ought to
require a long treatment.
The Earth supposedly remained without magnetosphere for some time during every geomagnetic field
reversal (FR). The typical duration, however, of a FR (maybe a few thousand years or less) and its
progression (i.e. whether the field vanishes and re-growths, or rather it flips) are not clear. In addition,
during every FR an excess production occurs of endogenous energy. Therefore, the density of the
atmosphere varied depending on the spoiling action by the solar wind, and on the increased soil exhalation.
Therefore, according to the aforementioned guessed inference, a depletion by about one half of the Earth's
atmosphere by the solar wind ought to have occurred on the occasion of several FR that happened during
about 5 Earth’s heartbeats. Additional independent and different evidences agree and favour a former even
much larger palaeodensity of the Earth’s atmosphere (review in preparation).
In the final analysis, it makes nonsense to be partisan either pro or con the palaeo-gravity or the palaeodensity variation compared to present values. Every possibility certainly has to be suitably taken into
account. But, we shall always miss the “smoking gun” proof. In any case, we have to apply the Ockham’s
razor: we have to favour every explanation that relies on well assessed and well known natural laws, and that
requires no ad hoc and more or less “exotic” assumption or a priori paradigm.
I would like to stress that, compared to its potential heuristic capability, the use of the biosphere is still
insufficiently exploited. The biosphere is an important source of proxy data for the study of the palaeoenvironment and of its drivers. The biosphere (including also humankind and its history) has always been,
and it still is, a crucial component of the natural system and a key driver. The biosphere plays a twofold role
70
as an active agent and as a passive recorder. The cooperation of biologists and palaeontologists and also of
historians is strongly needed and encouraged from this viewpoint, in order to tackle environmental studies
from a joint crucial perspective of Earth’s science.
References
Gregori, G.P., 2002. Galaxy – Sun – Earth relations. The origin of the magnetic field and of the endogenous energy of
the Earth, with implications for volcanism, geodynamics and climate control, and related items of concern for stars,
planets, satellites, and other planetary objects. A discussion in a prologue and two parts. Beiträge zur Geschichte der
Geophysik und Kosmischen Physik, Band 3, Heft 3, 471p.
Gregori, G.P., 2006. Galaxy-Sun-Earth relations: the origin of the magnetic field and of the endogenous energy of the
Earth, with implications for volcanism, geodynamics and climate control and related items of concern for stars,
planets, satellites, and other planetary objects. Newslett. New Concepts Global Tect., no. 38, p. 34-36.
Gregori, G.P., 2009. The Earth’s interior – Myth and science, New Concepts Global Tect. Newslett., no. 53, p. 57-75.
71
ESSAYS
MASSIVE CHANGES IN CLIMATE & SEA LEVEL
(Excerpt #1, abridged from an unpublished monograph,
EXTINCTIONS: the Pattern of Global Cataclysms)
Peter M. JAMES
Dunalley, Tasmania 7177, Australia
petermjames35@gmail.com
ABSTRACT: Examples of climate change over Recent and Pleistocene times are demonstrated to occur at rates far in
excess of those available under the mobile plate tectonics model. Polar wander, probably accompanied by recognizable
precessional variations, is proposed as a genesis. Both phenomena generate immediate responses from the earth's water
veneer and are demonstrated to cause massive changes in sea level. Evidence of very low sea levels is available from
DSDP results and the ubiquitous submarine valleys. Elevated sea levels are indicated from wave cut platforms and
events like the Missoula "floods", the existence of tablazos, the Lake Titicaca enigmas. In the subsequent essay, these
factors will all be demonstrated to provide a nexus with extinction events throughout pre-history and back over
geological time.
Keywords: rates of climate change, polar wander, precessional wobble, massive sea level changes, extinctions
1
Introduction
T
here is no question that there have been dramatic changes in climate over geological time. Sequences
such as polar ice caps covering what are now tropical latitudes and glacial sediments, interbedded with
coal seams/coral reef deposits, have been recorded in all parts of the globe. The extreme climate changes
involved have obviously occurred at rates far in excess of the rates at which continents are alleged to drift. A
couple of examples should suffice.
Antarctica is normally taken to have been under its polar ice cap for most of the past 15 million years. Not so
long ago, however, fossilised wood was found in the Trans Antarctic Mountains, at 1,800 m elevation, in
sediments only 2 or 3 million years old, New Scientist, 2/6/89. Trees growing in the mountains of Antarctica
would indicate it was then much warmer, with a latitude something like 40º less than it now occupies. A
forty degree change in latitude over a period of 2 to 3 million years would indicate a rate of change of well
over a thousand kilometres per million years: about fifty times faster than continents are alleged to "drift".
But if this is taken in conjunction with other contemporary evidence of climates in the northern Hemisphere,
another possibility enters the equation. When the aforementioned trees were growing in the Antarctic
mountains, cold water foraminifera were being deposited off the coast of Oregon, (Borehole DSDP 35,
among others). That is, the north west Pacific was quite a bit colder than today.
The pattern of a warmer Antarctic and a colder Oregon would fit a mechanism of a polar shift quite happily:
a North Pole migrating forty degrees from its present position towards the northwest Pacific and a South Pole
migrating a similar distance up into the Indian Ocean.
Nearer our own time, the late Pleistocene Ice Age is taken to extend from c 20,000 to 12,000 years ago in the
North America, with a slightly later onset in northwest Europe and an extension of a couple of thousand
years more. This Ice Age is normally spoken of as a global phenomenon, in which case it would have a
global genesis, such as an earthly encounter with the shadow of a meteor swarm, or a simple variation in the
sun's radiation. These possibilities lie somewhat outside the scope of the author's cognizance but the
following comments are offered. If a meteor swarm lay inside the Earth's path around the sun, then one
would expect this sort of astronomical cooling to be a frequent and regularly spaced event. On the other
hand, if variations in the sun's radiation was the cause, this would imply, first, a decrease in radiation
extending over a couple of thousand years to kick off the ice age; second, only a few thousand years later, a
turn around to an increase in radiation to melt the expanded ice sheets; thirdly, a cessation in this radiation
cycle when the ice sheets resumed their former size. In such a scenario, it might be questioned – even if the
waxing and waning of the ice sheets had been a straightforward process - whether a body as large as our
permanent star could produce a reversible change in radiation with such rapidity. When considered in light of
the fact that the Ice Age was not just a simple waxing and waning of the ice sheets but one of numerous
72
fluctuations, Dawes and Kerr (1982), Frenzel (1973), the solar variation postulate becomes even less
attractive.
So let us take a different view of the possible cause. During at least one part of the Ice Age, evidence for a
centre of ice indicates a North Pole located at Baffin Island. And for some of the same Ice Age period Siberia
was warmer than today. If the two events were quasi-simultaneous, they could both be explained by a simple
shift in the Pole, not by any change in the areal extent of the ice cap, Figure 1.
Figure 1 The centre of ice with the North Pole at Baffin Island, c 15,000 BP, compared with today's ice cap.
When conditions only a few thousands of years ago present conundrums of this type, how much more
difficult, then, to determine the simultaneous climatic conditions in different parts of the globe, tens of
millions of years ago? In view of these potential Gordian Knots, let us begin a synopsis of past climatic
changes during the period we know most about, the last millennium, in an attempt to determine whether we
might find some clues to support the above suggestions that changes in the mode of spin of the Earth are a
prime cause of climate changes - at least in the absence of any modern day anthropogenic input.
2
The Most Recent Two Millennia
During the most recent period of Earth history there have been modest but recognisable climate changes
recorded in the Northern Hemisphere. Initially, around the time of William the Conqueror, England was
warm enough to allow the conquering Normans to plant grape vines: a horticultural practice that was not
again possible in England until the later decades of the 20th Century. The same warm period was also well
enough established to give the Scandinavians confidence to cross the seas and colonise Iceland, Greenland,
and even the north eastern corner of North America. In Greenland, communities with dairy farming and other
agricultural ventures were established.
However, the balmy days were not to last. Prolonged cold weather is taken to have commenced in England
by the 16th Century. In 1536, Henry VIII travelled down an ice covered Thames on a horse-drawn sleigh,
from Hampton Court to Greenwich. Twenty eight years later, Queen Elizabeth was able to walk out onto the
thick ice of the Thames, at London. The cold spells continued on through the 17th C and 18th C and
sometimes into the early part of the 19th C, gaining for the period the name of Little Ice Age, LIA.
During the LIA, the North Sea was sometimes available for passage by foot on the ice. The LIA was also
famous in England for "Frost Fairs" that were held when the frozen surface of the Thames was considered
thick enough for crowds to venture safely out upon it. The first recorded Frost Fair was in 1607-08 and ice
was again thick enough for similar events in 1684, 1739-40, 1788 and, for the last time, in 1813-14. 1 In other
words, although the winters may have been exceptionally severe, the thick ice production on the Thames
1
Apparently, the Frost Fairs came to an end one year when the ice cover broke up prematurely and large fragments
floated out to sea with people still upon them.
73
does not appear to have been constant. Indeed, even before the LIA, the Thames had frozen over on a couple
of other, possibly exceptional, occasions: an early event in 250 AD has been recorded and another in 923
AD, the latter one when England should have been preparing for warmer times. In the once warm Greenland,
the LIA was infamous for its freezing over of the Scandinavian settlements that had been developed there
four or five centuries earlier.
Despite the variations, one could nonetheless conclude that northwest Europe was generally colder in 16th to
19th Centuries, colder than in William the Conqueror's time and colder that today. The historical records at
Rye, once a small port on the English Channel, reveal an affinity between the above climate changes and sea
level changes which, at first glance, could be interpreted as the result of waxing and waning of Arctic ice.
The history of Rye, located on Figure 2, goes something like this:- In the 11th Century, during the warming
of northwest Europe, when the Scandinavians were settling in Greenland and William the Conqueror's heirs
were planting vines, the town of Winchelsea had been located to the south of Rye, on a shingle barrier. This
barrier was eroded in a storm surge of 1250 AD, and Winchelsea was eventually submerged in 1280. About
this time, sea water had risen up to cover the land as far inland as Appeldore, some 15 km to the north of
Rye, and a sea crossing was necessary between Rye and Lydd, where an airport is now in use. The river on
which Rye was originally situated had its mouth at New Romney, some 17 km to the east, but this was
changed to its present position in 1290 and, a century later, much of the Brede valley, behind the relocated
Winchelsea, was under water
Figure 2 Present location of Rye, southern England, almost on the English Channel
Thus, high sea levels were associated with the medieval warming period. But things were about to change. In
the 1440s viniculture was abandoned because of the cooler weather. By 1596, nearing the height of the Little
Ice Age, the channel of the Rother River, through Rye, had silted up and was too shallow for ships. The
harbour was abandoned at the end of the 17th Century and, by 1730, the channel was all but gone. In 1635,
some 20,000 acres in the district were reclaimed from the sea and more land was reclaimed sixty years later.
These episodes of sea level retreat thus correspond with the cooler period which could be said to be
explained by waxing of the Arctic ice sheet. One might even contend that this periodic freezing recorded in
north west Europe and Greenland was of wider proportions. Work on the Great Barrier Reef, off the north
east coastline of Australia, by E. Henty of the Australian Institute of Marine Science, discovered evidence of
colder weather in the antipodean coral reef growths at the same period as the Frost Fairs. Thus, the first
impression is of a global cooling event. 2
Or it would be, if not for a single instance recorded from outside the northwest Europe region and its
antipodes. By luck, ship’s logs from four Spain-to-Chile voyages in the late 16th and early 17th Centuries,
were recently located in Seville by Maria de Rosario Prieta (1993). Between 1578 and 1599, only a few
decades after Queen Elizabeth walked out onto the frozen Thames and only a decade before the first Frost
Fair, the weather in the Straits of Magellan was recorded as being warm and balmy. Winds were from the
2
In 1931, however, the pendulum was found to be swinging back again. The sea level in the English Channel was
rising again and, in the 1960s, the rate of rise was measured as 2mm per year. This again corresponds with evidence of
warming but predates any serious global warming set off by human efforts.
74
north east, instead of the normal freezing winds from the west, and glaciers in Patagonia were calving to
produce ice bergs in the Straits, seen as another, unusually warm, phenomenon. Thus, the contemporary
weather in Patagonia was the complete opposite of the well documented LIA changes in northwest Europe.
Introducing the idea of polar wander again provides a helpful explanation for this contradiction. If one were
to suggest that the Little Ice Age was associated with some migration of the North Pole down towards the
North Atlantic, then the South Pole would have migrated up into antipodean regions, like Australia. In this
manner, colder conditions would have affected both regions. In South America, however, this same
hypothetical polar shift would have distanced the South Pole away from Patagonia, thus making it warmer.
On this basis, one could conclude that the unusual climate changes recorded over the last thousand years do
not point to any solar phenomena, but rather to some change in the mode of spin of the Earth. And, if so,
there is more to it. On a majority of occasions during the LIA, the Thames had not frozen. This point needs
to be cleared up as the variations between the frozen and the unfrozen Thames appear to have taken place too
frequently to be accounted for by polar wander, alone. One possible solution for rapid climatic variations
might be sought in the introduction of another change in the Earth's mode of spin: changes in magnitude of
precession. This proposal is treated in some detail below, based on early astronomical research at Alexandria.
But the point for the moment is that precession could take place more quickly than polar migration and such
wobbles would impose their own fluctuations on the general global weather patterns. It is unfortunate that
most of the LIA period came before the Observatory was set up at Greenwich, otherwise we would have
direct confirmation, or not, of the above sorts of change.
Prior to moving onto further astronomical topics, a brief outline of some of the meteorological changes in the
first millennium AD is set out below to fill in the gaps in time.
During the first four and a half centuries of the first millennium AD, Britain was occupied by the Romans but
little history comes down to us as a result of their stay. Unfortunately, the natural history following Roman
times is largely restricted to dramatic meteorological aspects, such as storms, floods, hurricanes and rain like
blood. These were tabulated up to 1000 AD and assembled by C.E. Britton (1937) in Geophysical Memoirs,
Volume 8, No1, and include the following:





In c 50 AD (Caligula's reign?), there was a frost so hard that all the rivers and lakes were passable
from November to the beginning of April.
In 68 AD, the Isle of Wight was allegedly separated from Hampshire by inundations. (This sounds as
though some change in sea level was involved.)
In 134 and 153 AD, the Thames froze over for two and three months, respectively, while in the
middle of this, in 139, the river was recorded as having dried up for two days.
In c 250 AD, the Thames froze over for nine weeks and, in 291, most of the rivers in Britain were
frozen for six weeks. This occurred again in 329 and again (for six weeks) in 525.
A drought with scorching heat was mentioned in 605 AD while, in 684, a great frost descended so
that lakes and rivers in Ireland were frozen as also the sea between Ireland and Scotland, allowing
"journeys to be made to and fro on the ice".
In 695 AD, the Thames was frozen for six weeks allowing booths to be built upon it. The first Frost
Fair, no doubt.
The next three centuries register more of the unusual climatic events, from severe winters to hot summers,
but no more references to the freezing of the rivers in England, until the one mentioned earlier, in 923, just
prior to the warming of England in preparation for the arrival of William the Conqueror. What the above
listings suggest, however, is a less than stable climate for Britain in the first millennium AD and, hence, that
changeable weather might be a fairly normal and natural situation. Whether this has been due to any form of
polar wander or changes in the rate or magnitude of precession cannot be determined at this stage.
Fortunately, we have more data from observations made at Alexandria during the preceding millennium.
3
The First Millennium BC
Eclipse Observations
The birth of natural philosophy in the first millennium BC is traditionally taken to have been launched when
Thales predicted a total eclipse of the sun in Greece in 585 BC. Thales had spent time in Egypt and had been
75
exposed to Chaldean (Babylonian) astronomy, so he obviously had information on eclipse seasons, etc.,
sufficient to make his prediction. However, while this eclipse did occur as predicted, modern day back
calculations show that it should not have been visible in Greece. In this, it was one of the early maverick
eclipses recorded in that millennium, occurring on the right day but (according to back calculations of
modern astronomers) in the wrong location.
Another example of this right day/wrong place comes from Thucydides who recorded a total solar eclipse at
Athens on August 5, 431 BC, during the Peloponnesian War. Back calculations agree that there was an
eclipse on that day, but no calculations can make the path of totality pass anywhere near Athens. One
celebrated British astronomer, J.K. Fotheringham in 1921, came up with the suggestion that maybe
Thucydides was drunk on that day and did not known where he was. Other maverick observations include
the one mentioned above, which was later reported by Herodotus; one on March 20, 71 AD, reported by
Plutarch at Chaeronea; and another on November 11, 129 BC, recorded as total in the Hellespont and 80% at
Alexandria,. This last event was at a time when the celebrated Hipparchus was still carrying out his research
at Alexandria, but even this record has been discounted – again by Fotheringham - on the basis that his own
back calculations showed that no eclipse should have been visible at Alexandria since one of August 15, 310
BC. Fotheringham went on to suggest, in this case, that confusion over dates was the most likely explanation.
How two such distant events could have been confused at a place like Alexandria, at that time, is another
matter.
As an aside, maverick recordings are not restricted to the Mediterranean. Similar observations come from the
Far East. In China, official records do not begin until the end of the Chou Dynasty (c 950 BC, to use the
Western calendar), but China did have a well established code of legends from much earlier. The dates of
two solar eclipses reported from that early period, in 2155 and 2128 BC, are found to be confirmed by back
calculations. However, once again, the calculations reveal that the second one should not have been seen in
China.
The last known recording of a maverick total solar eclipse in Europe, this one with stars visible, was
observed in Germany on May 8, 810 AD. The date of this eclipse is again confirmed by back calculations but
no set of calculations can make the sun disappear on that day in Germany. So it must have left Fotheringham
with a puzzle. But the alternative, that of a possible change in Earth behavior, does not appear to have been
considered. Yet it is not a great step to accept that eclipses, observed first hand by people who were as
reliable as any present-day academic with his computer, do represent actual events at specified locations.
In fairness, there is one excuse, maybe a rather lame one, for modern scientific skepticism about right dates,
wrong places. Not all of the ancient eclipse recordings are maverick. An eclipse of 763 BC, at Ashur,
behaves as it should. Likewise one in 240 BC and one again in 190 BC, at Rome. More than thirty recordings
of solar eclipses given in the Annals of Lu are found to fit with calculations and locations, the more recent
discrepancies being one on June 19, 518 AD, another in 600 AD and a third in 718 AD, which event is not so
much earlier than the last recorded maverick in Germany. Since then, things appear to have settled down
from whatever caused the maverick eclipses in the first place.
Which brings us to an event observed at Babylon on April 15, 136 BC, and event that comes down to us with
impeccable credentials. Back calculations by modern astronomers again confirm that there was a total solar
eclipse on that day, but the same set of calculations show that the path of totality of this eclipse should not
have passed anywhere near Babylon, but at some point 4000 km to the west, Figure 3.
76
Figure 3. Total solar eclipse of April 15, 136 BC, observed at Babylon when the path of totality should have been
some 4000 km to the west.
Attempts were made by Sir Harold Jeffreys at Cambridge - among others - to explain this discrepancy as
being related to a slowing down in the rotation of the Earth. This approach again leads to problems. Firstly, if
all the maverick eclipses of ancient times were the result of a slowing down in the Earth’s rate of rotation,
there should have been a pattern apparent in the anomalies. But there is not; both maverick eclipses and well
behaved ones are interspersed over the centuries of ancient times. Secondly, deceleration in the Earth’s rate
of spin is far too slow to explain the Babylon discrepancy. Modern measurements of the rate of slowing
down of the rotating Earth are of the order of 2 milli-seconds per century. On this basis, there would be no
discrepancy worth worrying about in the path of totality of the "Babylon" eclipse.
The rate of slowing down over geological time, determined from the growth rings of fossil corals, is
somewhat higher. In the Devonian Period, 400 million years ago, fossilised growth rings indicate something
like a year of 390 - 400 days. A hundred million years later, in the Carboniferous, the number of days had
reduced to 385. This represents a slowing down to today’s rate of approximately 4 milliseconds, or one tenth
of a second of arc, per year. But even applying this rate to the Babylon eclipse provides for a shift in the path
of totality of little more than 5 km, not the 3000 - 4000 km recorded.
Thus, we are surely dealing with something outside both the long term and the present day “normal”
behaviour of the Earth. Within the spectrum of possible causes, the concept of major wobble is very
attractive. If there were transient increases in wobble spanning the time of the above eclipses, there would
also be, according to the conservation of angular momentum, transient slowing down in the rate of spin of
the Earth. 3 Such a slowing down would obviously displace the path of the eclipse totality by some unknown,
but potentially large, amount. When the wobble reduced once more to normal, the rate of spin would speed
up, to compensate, so that the maverick eclipses above were generally able to occur on the right days, or near
enough.
Latitude Fixes
The Alexandria astronomer, Hipparchus, was an inveterate latitude fixer and what he discovered, not long
before 128 BC, was that his observations of star positions differed from those made just over a century
earlier by Eratosthenes. Under normal precession conditions, the geographical shift in the star positions, over
that interval, would have been 1 - 2º. Not great, but probably measurable. As a result of these findings
Hipparchus is credited with identification of Precession of the Equinoxes, although precession was probably
3
The analogy of a spinning top is useful although not fully accurate since a top is subject to friction at the “south
pole”. Nonetheless, most of us would have witnessed how the rate of spin of the top slows when the top is precessing
and then speeds up again when the top assumes steady state spin.
77
the last thing on his mind. (Allegedly, the discrepancies between his observations and those of Eratosthenes
annoyed him more than anything else.) The other thing that probably annoyed him was that the latitudes he
obtained from solar observations – which are unaffected by precession - also differed from those made by
Eratosthenes. They also differ from the established latitudes of today; some are lower, some are higher. (One
wonders whether he would have been annoyed had he known that would happen.)
One example of the discrepancies:- Born in Marseille, Hipparchus placed its latitude on the same latitude as
Byzantium (Istanbul, today). A parallel of latitude through both locations is shown in Figure 4. The one by
Hipparchus deviates from today’s parallel of latitude by an angle of about 4º and it would put the North Pole
near the northern tip of Russia (Bol’shevik Is), outside the limits of the modern permanent pack ice and some
1000-1500 km from its present location.
If Hipparchus was correct in his interpretation, one could suggest several explanations for the discrepancy.
Let’s get the first possibility out of the way: that associated with any form of continental drift. The rate of
movement implied by a shift of the Hipparchus' North Pole to the North Pole of today is about ten thousand
times faster than any motion proposed for mobile plates. A second explanation – and one favoured by many
modern astronomers – is that the maverick latitudes recorded by Hipparchus and Eratosthenes are the result
of faulty observations.
Figure 4 The Mediterranean showing today's parallels of Latitude (35º and 40º N) compared to that of Hipparchus, the
top line of Latitude, running from Marseille to Byzantium (Istanbul)
This claim of faulty observations is sometimes made despite the fact that Hipparchus was probably the most
celebrated observational astronomer in Alexandria's history and most of his other observations have been
taken as satisfactory. A third explanation is that the mode of spin of the Earth was subject to some form of
change during the period - whether an increased but transient form of precessional wobble or whether some
other form of polar wander is an open question. 4 Here, fortunately, we are able to call on the findings of
Copernicus, just over a millennium and a half after the Alexandrian data.
Copernicus, a monk in Poland in the 16th C, was a former professor of maths in Rome, where the
astronomical data from Alexandria and also that from many centuries of observations made at Babylon were
kept. Copernicus was given possession of the data, to find out what it all revealed. There was, allegedly,
growing gossip from the Middle East on the topic of heliocentricity and it obviously would have been in the
church's interests to muzzle such gossip. So one might now wonder whether it had been Rome's intention for
Copernicus to come up with the firm conclusion that Aristotle and Ptolemy were correct: the Earth did really
4
The sorts of change in the Earth's mode of spin, interpreted by the author though analysis of the sun-worship
alignments of megalithic monuments in N.W. Europe, James (1993), suggests that significant changes in precession were
probably involved. Incidentally, a similar conclusion was reached in a study of megalithic monuments in Siberia,
Gregoriev (2011).
78
stand at the centre of the universe. But, if that was the intention, it all came unstuck. Copernicus turned out to
be as honest as he was conscientious and he found that what had been preached for a millennium and a half
was incorrect; the centre of our part of the universe was the sun, not the Earth. That finding was, indeed, a
burn-at-the-stake number at the time but Copernicus avoided punishment, firstly by dedicating his book to
the Pope and, secondly, by not allowing its publication until after his death.
Copernicus, in his research, identified that the phenomenon Hipparchus had noted was indeed Precession of
the Equinoxes and a century later Newton was able to explain it as being caused by the differential pull of the
sun and the moon on the Earth’s equatorial bulge. Precession of the Equinoxes has since been accepted as
immutable, but it seems to be less known – or less mentioned - that Copernicus also identified changes in this
rate of precession. From the time of Eratosthenes (3rd C BC) to Ptolemy (2nd C AD), the rate of Precession
of the Equinoxes was more than 30% slower than from the time of Ptolemy until late in the 1st Millennium
AD. Indeed, this fits the proposal given above on the role played by the conservation of angular momentum:
the slower precessional period would have occurring during the same period as the maverick eclipses and
maverick latitude fixes were recorded at Alexandria. Moreover, the post-Ptolemy rate up until about the time
of the last maverick eclipse in Germany was marginally higher than today’s.
Further discussion on the topic of precessional wobbles during the second and third millennia BC is available
in a study made of the megalithic alignments of north west Europe by the writer, James (ibid).
4
Distribution of the Earth's Water Veneer
The point of the above astronomical peregrination has been to lead into the role that changes in the Earth's
mode of spin might play in the distribution of the Earth's water veneer.
Every point on the earth’s surface is subject to centripetal accelerations, by dint of the Earth’s rotation.
Points along the equator experience the maximum and magnitude decreases with the effective radius of
rotation (latitude) to become virtually zero at the poles. The centrifugal forces are, of course, relatively minor
in relation to gravity since we do not notice any significant changes when crossing the latitudes. However,
the same need not be entirely true for the oceans. If the Earth were a smooth spherical body, but otherwise
identical to its present shape, mass, and rate of rotation, the forces of rotation would cause the water veneer
to amass at the equator and drain away from the poles. To a first approximation, this effect can be quantified
by equating the kinetic and potential energy involved, neglecting secondary effects such as minor changes in
gravity with latitude, tidal and frictional effects. The height to which a column of water would rise at any
latitude would thus be given by
Potential energy, m.g.h
Or
h
Where h
g
v
=
=
=
=
=
Kinetic energy, ½ m.v2
v2 / 2g
height of water column
gravitational constant
angular velocity, ω . r
The term ω equals 2 π r per 24 hours where r is the effective radius of spin: zero at the poles and a maxim at
the equator. If one inserts end values into the above equation, the results are:
Height of a column of water at the pole:
Height of a column of water at the equator:
0 km
11.9 km
This variation in depth sounds large, but if the Earth were the size of a 30 cm diameter desk globe, the
difference would amount to little more than the thickness of good quality notepaper. Such a distribution of
water on a spherical Earth does, however, assume that there is adequate water to cover the full surface area
and, if so, the distribution would look something like Curve A on Figure 5. The actual distribution of the
oceans is, of course, quite different and more orthogonal in shape, line B.
It might be noted by inspection that the actual ocean volume under line B is considerably less than under the
hypothetical Curve A. This means that, if the Earth were spherical, the present ocean volumes would be
insufficient to cover the whole surface and the higher latitudes would probably be dry. Curve Ci might then
give a better illustration of this hypothetical distribution of the water veneer on a spherical Earth. In practice,
of course, the Earth body itself should adjust to these same rotational forces producing the equatorial bulge
79
and polar flattening and this would obviously play a large part in producing the regular oceanic distribution
indicated by Line B.
Figure 5. Relationship between theoretical distribution of water on a spherical Earth. Curve A, with the actual
distribution something like Line B, indicating a much smaller volume. The volume equivalent to Line B on the
hypothetical spherical Earth is shown as Curve Ci, and the effect of a hypothetical shift of 20 º in the poles on the
distribution of the oceans is shown as Curve Cii.
The “deficient” oceanic volume is important for the polar wander model. For, if some form of polar wander
were to take place, changing the pattern of centripetal forces, there would be an immediate response from the
seas. Water would attempt to amass at the new equatorial location(s) although nodal positions are unlikely to
be affected to any great extent. Water would also tend to drain away from the new polar areas, so that the old
polar areas would suffer inundation. The effect can be roughly predicted for a sphere, Curve Cii, but the
Earth's major geoidal features such as the equatorial bulge and the zones of polar flattening, with the further
complication of continental bulwarks, makes the picture more complicated.
Nonetheless, even with the present shape of the Earth, the two C-Curves suggest there would be an
immediate – and significant - response from the water veneer associated with any form of polar wander.
Possibly, in time, the major geoidal features of the Earth body itself would adjust to the changes. It would no
doubt take longer for a new equatorial bulge and new polar flattening zones to develop but, when this
happened, one could expect that ocean levels should more or less return to their previous datum. How long
this adjustment would take is a matter for further consideration.
This explanation for massive sea level changes now needs some observational back-up. Large scale lowering
of sea levels in the geological past is now likely to be covered by deep oceans, so the most obvious place to
begin a search for clues on sea level lowering would be in the deep ocean environment where two promising
areas of investigation are available: the findings from deep sea drilling program and the ubiquitous presence
of submarine valleys and abyssal sediment fans. Evidence of past sea levels elevations could easily be
removed by ongoing erosion processes, but there are still clues available as set out below. Firstly, let us deal
with the case of massive sea level lowering.
5
Deep Sea Drilling Results
Much of the DSDP program has been aimed at supporting plate tectonics predictions so that information
relevant to sea level change is largely fortuitous. Nonetheless, boreholes drilled in the deep ocean, hundreds
of kilometres from land, have recovered evapourites, coarse sediments, terriginous materials, wood and even
leaves. To date, all these items – except for the evaporites - have typically been labelled the result of
turbidity current activity, despite the fact that this has typically meant stretching the known principles of
hydraulics past breaking point. Selected boreholes are quoted below.
80
Borehole 156 (Galapagos area). Basalt met at a depth of 2.5 km below the surface of the ocean was found to
be oxidized, indicating exposure to air, either by sea level change or massive subsidence of the land in this
locality. Or perhaps some new way of producing oxidation of rock under deep water? Incidentally, the
exploration program associated with this borehole revealed that the sea floor in this equatorial region is
deeply dissected and eroded in an east-west direction.
Borehole 240, recovered land detritus and reef material within sand deposits in the upper stratigraphic units.
This was drilled in the Indian Ocean, some 500 km from the equatorial African coast, in water of some 5 km
depth.
Borehole 518 recorded an erosional unconformity at the Miocene/Pliocene boundary, revealing that the
region was then either dry or at least a shallow water domain. It is now at some 4 km depth and the
unconformity is overlain by deep water sediments.
Borehole 217, drilled in deep water on the 90º E Ridge, recovered Cretaceous Age sediments containing
dried out mud cracks.
Borehole 661, drilled in the Atlantic off Africa’s north west coastline, encountered a deposit of Cretaceous
anhydrite. Evaporites are indicative of a shallow, enclosed, tropical basin and such deposits also occur in the
Mediterranean which is known to have been dry on a couple of occasions. Such deposits have also been
recorded the Red Sea. Now, they have been found in the ocean depths.
6
Submarine Valleys
Underwater canyons and valleys are present in all the world’s seas and oceans and almost ninety percent of
them can be traced back to existing drainage systems on land, although sometimes the linkage is disturbed or
lost where the former drainage system crosses the continental shelf. Normally, however, it can be picked up
once more on the continental slope, from where a majority of submarine valleys continue on down to the
abyssal plains. Here, in water depths that can range up to four kilometres or more, large alluvial-type fans
have been deposited.
In their systems, submarine valleys exhibit most of the major characteristics of terrestrial drainage systems:
gorges cut in the hard rock of the continental slopes; tributaries; distinct bedding; incised drainage patterns in
the surfaces of the alluvial fans. All these features would normally be seen as the result of gravitational
forces and hydraulic gradients that are in operation only above sea level. Indeed, according to Shepard and
Dill in their classic tome on Submarine Valleys and Other Sea Valleys (1966), the most logical explanation to
fit all the submarine valley features would be a drowned river origin: that is to say, valleys formed in the
manner of normal terrestrial rivers and then subsequently submerged. However, they jibbed at the idea of
such massive drops in sea level.
Many oceanographers also jib at the idea of massive sea level changes and look for alternative explanations
such as turbidity currents, despite the fact that no one has ever successfully demonstrated how an intermittent
and superficial turbidity current, acting under water without the power of hydraulic gradients, is able to erode
a massive canyon in hard rock. There is another problem with the turbidity current premise. Turbidity
currents are currents supercharged with sediments, which sediments they tend to drop on the run, as it were,
as their velocity reduces after leaving the continental slope. This process produces graded deposits: initially
gravels or gravelly sands, grading out into sands and then into silts as one progresses out from the base of a
continental slope. However, sediments deposited in the abyssal fans typically exhibit defined bedding planes,
as found in terrestrial streams.
Examples of submarine valleys are given below to illustrate the above arguments, starting with the
submarine valleys of the Mediterranean Sea, which is known to have been dry on a couple of occasions, the
last time being dated at around five million years ago. 5 The Mediterranean therefore provides no problem
with regard to a drowned river origin. Canyons in the Mediterranean are also quite frequent, with some
significant ones being extensions of the Rhone. Another occurs beneath the mouth of the Nile, running from
5
Although Greek mythology does speak of a more recent occasion when Hyperion, the sun god, was persuaded to
let his incompetent nephew drive the sun chariot across the sky. The unruly steeds became uncontrollable and the chariot
crashed to earth, causing the Mediterranean to boil dry and the Ethiopians to turn black.
81
the ground surface near Memphis and deepening down to the base of the Mediterranean at some distance out
to sea. This canyon is now infilled to form the Nile Delta.
Precipitous canyons are present around the island of Corsica, beginning not far above present sea level as
little more than notches in the present-day rocky coastline. That is, there is no potential here for any turbidity
current activity. Below sea level, however, the notches develop rapidly into canyons in the hard rock and, in
this form, continue down to the base of the sea at several kilometres depth. The sediment loads of shallow
water materials, such as sea grass, have been spilt out onto the sea floor as a small fan deposits.
The morphology of the drowned Mediterranean canyons can now be compared with other submarine
canyons present in the major oceans, where the removal of the much larger bodies of water is less easy to
explain.
The east coast of Sri Lanka has several canyons, the largest being the Trincomalee Canyon extending off the
country’s largest river, the Mahaweli. This canyon runs a twisting, precipitous course in a V-shaped valley
that has cut its way down through hard pre-Cambrian granites and quartzites to a final oceanic depth of
around 4-5 km, some 60 km out from the land. Now, the Mahaweli ("Big Sand") River has the potential to
carry a reasonable sediment load and hence an origin related to turbidity currents has sometimes been
proffered to explain its impressive gorge in hard rock. But the Trincomalee Canyon is not alone on the east
coast of Sri Lanka. There are several more canyons to the south, each of similar magnitude and each eroded
into hard rock. But, in these instances, there is no major river at the head of the canyons and no potential for
any large sediment load to call on, if one were considering a turbidity current origin. The logical solution is
to accept that, at some stage in the geological history of the region, the sea level in this part of the Indian
Ocean was four kilometres lower than it is today. This is not as absurd as it first sounds.
Travelling east into the Bay of Bengal, supporting evidence for the above interpretation is to be found in the
Bengal submarine system. This voluminous system extends out from the mouth of the Ganges River, firstly
as discrete canyons in the rock of the continental slope, then as a meandering and braided network of valleys
incised in a huge sediment fan, which stretches south for a distance of 2,500 km from the Ganges mouth,
Figure 6.
Figure 6. The submarine valley system of the Bay of Bengal. Elongate shaded areas represent incised channels in the
sediment fan.
The presence of coarse layers within the predominant silts of the fan indicates that there have been four
major pulses of sedimentation, ranging in age from the Cretaceous, though the Miocene and Pliocene, to the
Quaternary. The youngest deposit, of Pleistocene Age, is overlain by deep sea ooze. This, in itself, is a prime
example of changes in the relative elevations of land and sea.
82
The present-day ocean depths over the length of the fan increase from about 3 km in the north to almost 5 km
in the south. This represents a sea bed gradient of less than 1 : 1000. Attempting to explain the origin of this
extensive and almost flat sediment fan by turbidity current activity is beyond any known principles of
hydraulics: particularly when one is asking the turbidity currents to deposit their extensive sediments in
horizontally bedded sequences. The turbidity current origin becomes even less attractive when one is asking
deep ocean currents to erode major channels in the surface of the fan, under water, at gradients of 1 : 1000, or
less. If the above objections to are not enough to reject the idea of a turbidity current origin, the proposal can
be seen as even more fatuous when DSDP Borehole 217, located on the 90 º Ridge, recovered Cretaceous
muds with drying cracks.
Examples of abyssal fans in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans further confirm the drowned river origin.
The Congo submarine valley, at 6º S, begins some 20 km up from the mouth and can be traced some 400 km
out to sea. Features of this system include major underwater tributaries and a sediment fan at depth
containing, as in the case of the Bengal fan, incised channels, with the added feature of levees and sand
grains with hematite coatings. Admittedly, the hematite coatings could have been formed before the sands
were transported out into the ocean. However, twigs have also been recovered from these same deep sea
sediments, which does suggest that the upper levels of the sediment fan are quite recent as well as being
terrestrial in origin. The base of the Congo abyssal fan is Cretaceous in age, as is the Bengal fan, and rests on
evaporite deposits, which presents another indicator of shallow water that was itself drying out.
The submarine valley systems off either coastline of North America are also instructive with regard to origin.
Starting with the west coast, submarine valleys occur from Canada to the Mexican border: the Quinault,
Grays, Willapa, Colombia, Astoria, Delgada et al. All are unequivocally sited off the mouths of terrestrial
streams, except possibly the Delgada, which is located just south of Cape Mendocino where a branch of the
San Andreas Fault is tangential to the coast. The Deep Sea Drilling Program nonetheless found fresh water
diatoms and wood of Pleistocene age in 4.5 km depth of water on the distal parts of this Delagda fan. Again,
the structure of all these canyons appears to be independent of the size of the counterpart terrestrial stream,
on land. Sharp contacts between beds of mud and sand are again typical, a situation that once more rules out
a turbidity current origin.
The Eel Canyon, of northern California, has poignant example of terrestrial behaviour: a detour around a sea
floor high, as a normal terrestrial stream might do, Figure 7.
Figure 7. The Eel submarine valley detours around a topographical high.
The largest canyon on the west coast, one which rivals the Grand Canyon in relief, begins in Monterey Bay,
Figure 8. It is joined on its descent to the abyssal plain by two large tributary canyons related to The Carmel
and the Santa Cruz Rivers. These tributary canyons form hanging valleys at the junctions, a probable
indication vertical movements associated with the San Andreas Fault, Martin (1992). The Monterey Canyon
also crosses a major feature sympathetic to the main alignment of the San Andreas Fault, as shown on the
figure. At this point the canyon contains Pliocene age sediments. One would think that, if the San Andreas
Fault has been moving as a transform fault since the Pliocene – at the ongoing rates imputed to it by plate
tectonics dogma - there should now be a large kink in this canyon’s trace, with a displacement of a couple of
hundred kilometres. There is no obvious indication of any such lateral movement.
83
Figure 8. Monterey Canyon. Both the Soquel and Carmel junctions occur as hanging valleys and weathered granite
occurs near the Carmel junction, at 2km depth. Large gravels are present in the distal fan.
At almost 2 km depth, weathered granites are exposed in the main canyon wall, Martin (64). At 3 km depth,
near the far end of the canyon’s sediment fan, gravels up to 7 cm in diameter have been deposited. Again,
one could not realistically expect these to have been moved by deep sea currents which seldom attain
velocities in excess of one knot. Nor, indeed, is such a deposit concordant with the activity of turbidity
currents from the distant continental slope.
*
On the opposite coast of North America, there is a similar sequence of submarine canyons in the Atlantic
Ocean although those of the Atlantic are typically longer than those of the Pacific. For instance, the Amazon
Canyon continues up almost as far as Puerto Rico while one of the world's largest examples is to be found in
the Bahamas: a length of some 200 km with side walls several kilometres in height at the surprisingly steep
inclinations of 9 - 12º. Its valley floor, at depths of 4 – 5 km, is flat and not composed of deep sea oozes as
might be expected, but of cobbles and boulder deposits interbedded with sands. The sands sometimes exhibit
current bedding, typical of shallow water deposition.
The Hudson Canyon contains sedimentary sequences ranging down though the Recent and Pleistocene to the
Pliocene/Miocene transition. Cobbles, gravels and shallow water shells have been found along the channel
floor, now at 3.5 km depth. The longest of the North Atlantic features is the Mid-Ocean Submarine Valley,
which starts off between Canada and Greenland and continues down the abyssal plain. Shallow water
Tertiary deposits are present along its length, overlying Cretaceous sediments that appear to have been
deposited in sequences. DSDP Borehole 185 encountered Pliocene beds resting unconformably on older
sediments along this feature.
A final example comes from Hawaii. Here, submarine canyons are to be found off the precipitous and rocky
coastline, as in Corsica. And, as in Corsica, there is no obvious source of sediment to produce turbidity
currents. The canyons are typically located below erosion notches in the steep basalt terrains and they
continue at relatively constant gradients of 100 metres per kilometre to depths of almost 2 km. Sequences of
discrete clay beds, overlain by gravels and subsequently by coarse sands, have been recovered from depths of
1 km, together with shallow water shells. Pleistocene reefs have also been found at depths of 2 km on the
Hawaiian slopes. Elsewhere, it has been argued by the author that subsidence of a sea mount is not a factor to
be considered in explaining occurrences of this nature.
*
Further evidence for large sea level changes comes from Barbados, where a Tertiary coal deposit is overlain
by globigerina ooze. That is, in order to produce conditions for the deposition of the proto-coal formation, a
once shallow and subtropical freshwater environment existed during the Tertiary. This zone then found itself
in a deep ocean environment for a period long enough to allow the deposition of ooze. After its spell at the
84
bottom of the ocean, the area was then "uplifted" above sea level once more. All this happened in the last 10
– 12 Ma. Barbados lies close to the Caribbean Plate boundary and this is sometimes used as a self-sufficient
explanation for the massive environmental changes. But, if land subsidence/uplift is proposed, it would mean
complete reversibility in the crust, at an on-going rate of at least 1 mm per year, the sort of rate measured for
local uplifts in active volcanic regions. There is really no evidence for preferring oscillation of the land over
the simpler oscillation in sea level - except a long standing prejudice against the latter. A similar geological
situation has been recorded in Indonesia, where deep sea radiolarian ooze again occurs above sea level,
sandwiched between shallow water Tertiary sediments. Thus, the Barbados case is not unique.
7
Elevated Sea Levels
On a model of sea level change related to the mode of spin of the Earth, one should expect that if there were
low sea levels in one part of the globe there should be compensatory high sea levels in another part. Evidence
of high sea levels is, unfortunately, less likely to be preserved owing to the normal erosion processes on land.
Often, it is the case that many ambiguous inferences of high sea levels tend to be dismissed. For instance, on
the Malayan Peninsula, erosion platforms at elevations of 200m or more in post-Tertiary granites have been
reported by the geological survey, but this is seldom quoted and, as often, is dismissed. Elevated beach
strands and gravel beds occur at numerous locations around the world but tend to be explained by isostatic
uplifts - or, more often these days, tend to get tainted by the claim of "tsunami" if the site is in view of a body
of water. This has been the fate of elevated wave cut platforms on the east coast of Australia and also in the
north west of the country.
A similar wave cut feature at 300m elevation in Hawaii has also been claimed as the product of a tsunami,
which is stretching the bounds of credulity. For, a start, it would be the experience of most people who have
visited the sites of tsunami events, that these leave little or no geological trace of their passing, at least not in
the form of semi-permanent features such as wave cut platforms in rock. Additionally, the highest tsunami
waves recorded during events like Krakatau are around 30 m and this in shallow waters. Out in the open
ocean, nothing more than around 10% of this height has ever been recorded.
On the Canadian prairie, there is a different situation. The Saskatchewan Gravels are difficult to explain by
any other mechanism than a high sea level stand. The age of the gravel deposition has been suggested as
tertiary, Hunt (1990), but is not known with any certainty. The gravels have been deposited up to a kilometre
and a half above the present day sea level and occur with the configuration of a very long beach strand that
extends from just below the Canada-USA border (to the south east off Medicine Hat, at Lat 48º, Long 109º)
and stretches north to cross the Alberta-Saskatchewan border at Lloydminster (east of Edmonton). From
there, the strand bends slightly northwest, passing through Fort Vermilian and it continues for another couple
of hundred kilometres to the Arctic Circle. The "gravels" are immediately recognisable, comprising a
predominance of spherical pre-Cambrian quartzite cobbles, like startlingly white cannon balls.
The total length of the broadcast exceeds a thousand kilometres and there is a gradual drop in elevation
(approximately 1 : 1000) to the north, that is, towards the Pole. 6
The broadcast has been explained by one authority, Hunt (ibid), as the result of massive a tsunami following
a major meteorite impact. However, as already mentioned, the geomorphology better fits an origin of
continued wave action at a high sea level, forming a long beach strand. Incidentally, the same white cannon
balls are also to be found on the western side of the Rocky Mountain Cordillera, in Canada, notably near
Revelstoke where a huge accumulation of white cannon balls has been heaped up beside a river bend. So
perhaps there are other factors involved. The author has also found scattered evidence of the same white
cannon balls in road cuttings south from Revelstoke, as far down as the USA border, at approximately Long.
119.5º.
Perhaps the best examples of high wave-cut platforms are to be found along the Pacific coastline of South
America. Termed tablazos, these monolithic-type structures stand as isolated coastal plateaux extending from
Peru to Tierra del Fuego. The features were first recorded in scientific literature by Charles Darwin and have
been subsequently discussed by Sheppard (1927) and others. Horizontal marine sediments cap most tablazos
6
Interestingly, the strand line of what was once presumably a horizontal lake surface of Lake Titicaca, now exhibits
a gradual drop in elevation (approx. 1 : 2500) towards the Pole - according to today's geodetic standards.
85
and these have been variably dated from Pliocene to Recent, De Vries (1988), Cantalamessa and Di Celma
(2004). Tablazo elevations in excess of 300 m occur in the north but the elevations gradually decrease in
height to the south. This inclination has been attributed to uneven uplift of South America. But, the view of
isostatic readjustment has been refuted quantitatively by the writer, James (2007), and in South America it
also lacks any convincing evidence in the profiles of the rivers on either the east or west coastlines.
Charles Darwin, when in Patagonia on the Atlantic side of South America, was interested in the wide, almost
horizontal, pampas plains that would be periodically truncated on their eastern side by steep cliff faces
sometimes approaching a hundred metres in height. He surveyed one alignment and estimated an overall
elevation drop, from the foothills of the Andes to the Atlantic Ocean, of less than two hundred metres: an
average slope of the order of 1:5000 to 1:2500. Shells of Recent appearance were common on the flat
pampas surfaces and Darwin presumed that the "steps" (or relic sea cliffs) had been formed as a result of
uplift of the land. The assumed uplift would make it slightly less than the elevation of the Tablazos on the
other side of the Andes, but there is no reason to assume that this is the result of land uplift any more than it
is to assume the topography was formed by a slowly subsiding sea level, after a period of sea level elevation.
The latter explanation is again suggested to be more fitting when it comes to very much larger changes in the
land/sea relationships, posed by Lake Titicaca and the associated Altiplano, and also by the Great Missoula
Floods. These two enigmatic phenomena have been treated in detail by the author elsewhere, James (2011)
and (2008) respectively, and are not pursued herein.
AUTHOR'S NOTE. The above essay is intended to pave the way for a following submission on what might be labelled
"global cataclysms": a prime mechanism of extinction events.
REFERENCES
Aggasiz, A., 1876. Hydrographic sketch of Lake Titicaca. Amer. Academy of Arts & Sciences. v. XI, p., 283-292.
Alt, D., 2001. Glacial Lake Missoula and its Humongous Floods. Montana Press Publ. Co., American Museum of
Natural History, Anthropology papers, v. 23.
Aristarchus of Samos, The Ancient Copernicus: a History of Greek Astronomy. Oxford, Clarendon press.
Bretz, J.H., 1923. The channeled scabland of the Columbia Plateau. Jnl Geology, v. 34, p. 573-608.
Britton, C.E., 1937. Weather in Britain, 0 – 1000AD. Geophysical Memoirs, v. 8, no. 1.
Cantalamessa, G. and Di Celma, C., 2004. Origin and chronology of marine terraces of the Isla de la Plata. Jnl Amer.
Earth Sc., v. 16, p. 633-648.
Coleman, P.J. (ed.), 1973. The Western Pacific. 12th Pacific Science Conf., Univ. of Washington Press. Paper by N.A.
Bogdanov.
Copernicus, N., 1972. The Complete Works, Book 3. Macmillan, London.
Cuvier, Baron G., 1812. Discours sur les revolutions du globe. (Paris)
Darwin, C. The Voyage of the Beagle. Penguin Ed. (abridged) 1989. Original year of publication 1839, Henry Coulburn,
London.
Dawes, E.R. and Kerr, J.W. (eds.), 1982. Nares Strait and the Drift of Greenland, a conflict in plate tectonics.
Geoscience 8, Mendeleser on Gronland.
DeVries, T.J., 1988. The geology of late Cenozoic marine terraces (tablazos) in northwestern Peru. Jnl S. Amer. Earth
Sc., v. 1, no. 2, p. 121-136.
Di Celma, C., 2005. Basin physiography and tectonic influence on sequence architecture and stacking pattern:
Pleistocene stacking of the Canoa Basin (Equator). GSA Bull., v., 117, nos. 9/10, p. 1226-1241
Deep Sea Drilling Program. (DSDP). Relevant boreholes.
Fotheringham, J.K., 1921. Historical eclipses. The Halley Lecture, Oxford. Clarendon Press.
Frenzel, B., 1973. Climatic Fluctuations of the Ice Age. Case Western Res. Univ.
Gamble, C., 1993. Time Walkers. Penguin
Gold, T., 1955. Instability of the Earth’s axis of spin. Nature, v.175, 526ff.
Gregoriev, S.A., 2011. Catastrophes in the first half of the Holocene and their possible dynamic causes.
NCGT Newsletter, no. 6, p. 95-107.
Hendy E. The LIA and the western tropical Pacific. Aus. Inst. Marine Science publication. (year unknown)
Hunt, C. Warren, 1990. Environment of Violence. Polar Publ., Calgary
James, P.M., 1992. Very large changes in sea level. 6th Aus/NZ Geomech. Conf.
James, P.M., 1993. Earth in Chaos. Boolarong Publ., Brisbane.
James, P.M., 2007. On isostasy. NCGT Newsletter, no. 42, p. 43-45; no. 43, p. 69-71.
James, P.M., 2008. The massive Missoula floods. NCGT Newsletter, no. 48, p. 5-22.
James, P.M., 2011. The Lake Titicaca enigmas. NCGT Newsletter, no. 58, p. 44-49.
Martin, B.D., 1964. Geology of the Monterey Canyon. PhD Thesis, Univ. S. California
Martin, B.D., 1992. Constraints to right-lateral movements, San Andreas Fault system. New Concepts in Global
Tectonics (Ed. Chattergee S, & Hotton N.) Texas Univ. Press.
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Nakiboglu, S.M. and Lambeck, K., 1980. Deglaciation effects on the rotation of the Earth. Geophys Jnl., v. 62, p. 49-58.
O'Neil, W.M., 1986. Early Astronomy from Babylonia to Copernicus. Sydney Univ. Press.
Owen, H.G., 1983. Atlas of Continental Displacement. Camb. Earth Sciences Series.
Pardee, J.T., 1910. The glacial lake Missoula, Montana. Jnl Geol., v. 18, p. 376-386.
Preita, Maria de Rosario, 1993. In: Past Glaciations, Chile & Argentina. USGS Special Paper 1386-1.
Sharpton, V.L. and Ward, P.D., 1991. Global catastrophes in world history. Geol. Soc. of Amer., Special Paper 247.
Shepard, F.P. and Dill, R.F., 1966. Submarine Canyons and Other Sea Valleys. Rand McNally.
Sheppard, G., 1927. Geological observations on the Isla de la Plata. Amer. Jnl Sc., v. 13, p. 480-486.
Tarling, D.H. and Tarling, M.P., 1977. Continental Drift. Penguin
Verosub, K.L., 1982. A paleomagnetic record from the Tangle Lakes, Alaska: large amplitude secular variation.
Geophys Res. Letters, v. 9, no. 8, p. 823-826.
Whitaker, J.H. (ed.), 1966. Submarine Canyons and Deep Sea Fans. Benchmark Papers in Geology, Dowden
Hutchinson & Ross
87
THE PATTERN OF GLOBAL CATACLYSMS
(Excerpt #2, abridged from unpublished manuscript Extinctions)
Peter M. JAMES
Dunalley, Tasmania 7177, Australia
petermjames35@gmail.com
Abstract: The previous essay presented evidence of changes in the Earth's mode of spin and the nexus between this and
both climate changes and massive changes in the distribution of the seas. The present submission relates these sea level
changes to extinction events in the Earth's history, tracing them back from the Upper Holocene over geological time.
Keywords: sea level change, extinction events, human responses, dinosaur response
1.
INTRODUCTION
G
eological records list five major extinction events since the Pre-Cambrian, Leakey and Lewin (2006).
•
•
•
•
•
At the end of the Ordovician, 440 million years ago, some 85% of life forms vanished. No unusual
chemistry has been recorded in sediments of the time and fish became prominent in the aftermath.
The late Devonian, 365 ma, allegedly a time of warm sunshine in the northern hemisphere, also a
time of recorded meteorite impacts. Freshwater fish appeared after this event.
At the end of the Permian, 225 - 200 ma. Well over ninety percent of the Earth's fauna was lost –
and, no doubt, a large part of the Earth's flora – within a short space of time. Shallow water animals
and mammal-like terrestrial reptiles were badly hit while trilobites and rugose corals disappeared for
good. Survivors included deep sea animals, terrestrial animals that lived in burrows and, fortunately
for us, the cynodont, a probable ancestor of today's mammals.
The end of the Triassic, only 15 million years after the last event, when 70% of species, mostly
marine, were lost
The end of the Cretaceous (the K-T boundary, 65 million years ago), the end of the dinosaur
populations after a dominant innings of over 100 million years. Small animals appear to have coped
better with this event, along with birds and amphibious animals. There was another, smaller
extinction, some ten million years further down the track.
At this point it should be added that there is no reason to take this list as fully comprehensive. For instance,
we have no knowledge of the Sisyphean labours that must have gone on in Pre-Cambrian times, when
extinction events almost certainly thwarted more than one attempt by the Earth's early forms of life to detach
themselves from the rocks and move about the seas under their own steam. What we do know is that, in
Cambrian times, maybe a hundred million years before the first event listed above, there was what appears to
have been an evolutionary explosion of marine life. The Burgess Shale, in Canada, holds the fossil evidence
for this sudden profusion of fantastic marine shapes and sizes. The Burgess Shale also holds the evidence of
an abrupt ending to this profusion, with mass graves of these weird fish-like creatures fossilised in the mud.
And we know that when Baron Cuvier drew up the first geological time table, a couple of hundred years ago,
he based his Geological Periods on obvious truncations in the fossil assemblages, truncations that were
typically followed by replacement with entirely new fossil suites. There have been subsequent attempts to
explain these truncations as "optical illusions" produced by the foreshortening effects of time, but it is the
intention of the following pages to demonstrate that this uniformitarian proposal is mostly wishful thinking.
In addition to the early stages of geological time, the above listing does not tell us anything about the last
fifty million years, because extinctions did not stop when the dinosaurs were removed. Cores of sediments
obtained from the Deep Sea Drilling Program (DSDP) have revealed that the numerous reversals or part
reversals of the magnetic poles have often been accompanied by the removal of many small marine animals,
perhaps enough to label the reversals as extinction events, albeit minor ones. This brings the spectre of
extinction closer to our own time and its proximity becomes even more alarming when the evidence reveals
that such extinction events have continued well into the Holocene Period, when numerous populations of
88
homo sapiens were cut short. Closer to our own time, however, these human extinctions have been studied
mostly by anthropologists and archaeologists and have been explained by anthropogenic rather than natural
means. By that is meant: the removal/disappearance of specific civilizations, or cultures, or people types
(such as the Neanderthals) over the past hundred thousand years has been blamed on the introduction of
superior human subspecies into regions occupied by lesser breeds. The superior subspecies then replaced the
indigenous inhabitants - probably not always in a kindly fashion. This brings up one important point.
Extinctions that have occurred over geological time have obviously been initiated by some natural cause. The
question thus needs to be asked: Why should the Earth suddenly change the habits of a thousand million
years, just because homo sapiens has come on the scene with a capacity to generate his own extinction events
for the biosphere?
The following discussions are aimed to demonstrate that extinctions, right down to several thousand years
ago, are still explainable by natural causes, the same natural causes that have operated since the PreCambrian. And the cause? - massive sea level changes as described in the previous essay. The last major
extinction event took place just over 3,000 years ago, which provides us with a good starting point to begin
our trek back through the destruction levels of the past
2
EXTINCTION EVENTS OF THE HOLOCENE
2.1
The Last of the Minoans
Not long after the end of the Trojan War, the heroes who sacked and burnt Troy were themselves pretty well
wiped out. This occurrence has often been erroneously referred to as a simple disappearance of the Minoans
on Crete and the Mycenaeans in Greece. Various reasons have been offered as the cause and a long-time
favourite has been the eruption of Thera (now Santorini). There are a number of reasons for dismissing this
cause.
•
•
•
•
7
Geological studies (New Scientist 21/6/97) indicate that most of the ash from Thera’s eruption was
blown over the eastern Aegean and parts of western Turkey; not south over Crete. Therefore, it was
highly unlikely to have smothered Knossos.
Tsunamis have achieved remarkable popularity as agents of terror in recent times, but such a wave
from Thera, after crossing the deep sea, is estimated to have been capable of encroaching no further
than about 0.5 km inland along the northern coastline of the island, in which case it would have left
Knossos high and dry. 7 The tsunami proposal is further destroyed by the fact that the major centres
of population on the southern side of Crete, quite safe from any Thera-generated tsunami, were also
wiped out at the same time as Knossos.
Thera's eruption has been fairly conclusively dated as c 1450 BC. The date of the Minoan collapse is
so not clear, largely because a Dark Age of two or three hundred years followed the wipe out and
removed much of the archaeological history. 8 However, a date not long after the Trojan War is
logical, which puts the wipe-out something like three hundred years after the Thera eruption. In
addition, we have Homer's word that, in the build-up to the invasion of Troy by the coalition-of-thewilling, King Idomeneus of Crete was able to provide the third largest flotilla of ships for
Agamenon's armada, hardly the gesture of a society impoverished and devastated by Thera's eruption
two hundred and fifty years earlier.
Finally, disappearances at this point were not just restricted to the Minoans of Crete. The
Mycenaeans on the Peloponnese had the same fate, at the same time. To take account of this, a new
popular cause has arisen: an alleged invasion by the Dorians. However, the Dorians were not an
organised lot nor were they new arrivals in either Crete or the Peloponnese. Moreover, the
Mycenaeans and Minoans formed a well-established culture of warriors and might have welcomed a
bit of a work-out against a Dorian rabble. As King Nestor of Pylos - and of Trojan War fame – once
boasted: the Mycenaeans would rather fight a battle than tend garden.
At a recent AAPG conference in Athens, a paper was presented by a venerable Greek seismologist on this matter.
Recent works by archaeologists such as Professor W. D. Neimeyer in Attica (Lectures of a Visiting Professor, AAIA,
2007) and by an Oxford team on the island of Euboea, have demonstrated that the dark centuries were not completely
barren. Furthermore, Homer's Iliad is full of family lineages, so there must have been enough folk contact with the past,
c 800 BC, to be of public interest.
8
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In fact, there was more to it than just described. Contemporaneous destruction levels are recorded all around
the Mediterranean – and also elsewhere. The affected locations are set out below and reveal that their range
indicates this event can rightly be labelled not as just the "Last of the Minoans" but the "Last Global
Extinction".
A start for the justification of this statement might be made with the destruction of Pylos ("Sandy Pylos",
according to Homer). Located in the southwest corner of The Peloponnese, Pylos provides us with a bulk of
evidence on the closing stages of the Mycenaean empire in the form of Linear B tablets, with the writing
almost identical to that found on tablets at Knossos. These tell a story of preparation under threat and,
although the threat never appears to have been specified, its form can be inferred. The tablets tell of plans to
evacuate women and children to safety in the interior of The Peloponnese, and include lists of carefully
calculated rations. This, in fact, presents an initial conundrum. If the threat was a Dorian take-over, the
Dorians – at least those who were not already living on hills in the region – would most likely have
approached Pylos on foot, from the north. Thus, the relocation of the women and children to "safe" centres in
the middle of The Peloponnese would not have done them much good. No, the preparations at Pylos were
nothing to do with an invasion coming down from the north.
An important part of the preparation for the threat was the positioning of watchers on headlands in the south,
while rowers took up positions along the coastline, ready to arm rescue boats. This makes sense if the threat
was related to the sea 9 and if one accepts that "floods" were not unknown to the Greeks. (There are four ages
mentioned in their mythology, each possibly terminated by "floods".)
As touched on above, the pattern of destruction by a "flood", or a rising sea level, is also to be found in other
locations around the Mediterranean at this same period as the Minoan wipe-out. The Nile delta, for instance,
was abandoned as it had been a millennium earlier, see later. The Levantine coast also suffered and Leonard
Woolley in “A Forgotten Kingdom” places the abrupt end to the Royal Archives of the Hittites early in the
subject twelfth century BC. On the eastern Mediterranean coast further to the south, there was more
destruction and the abandoned cities were soon reoccupied by the Peoples of the Sea, or Hyksos – which
sounds suspiciously like the Greek word for fish. These Hyskos appear to be refugees, or early boat people,
rather than marauders or people who battled their way to the occupation of the cities. Vague mentions of
subsequent dark ages and long periods of recovery also come from the Middle East following this time.
To the west, Cyprus was depopulated at the same time as Greece and its fertile lands were abandoned. Even
further afield, in France, there is a definitive break in culture marked by the introduction of urn field burials.
Across the Channel, the final construction stage of Stonehenge (dated from around 1500 BC) had been in use
for several centuries. Then, at around 1200 BC, the people who worshipped the sun at this monument - and at
other megalithic sites in Britain - disappeared quite mysteriously. Their place was taken by simple, backward
peoples from the hills, people who had no use for sun-worship monuments or for abandoned mines.
Ireland dates its peat bogs from the closing stages of this same second millennium BC. Peat bogs are a
manifestation of excessive flooding. In China, the old civilized Shang culture was overrun by Chou
barbarians from the north and west, following on the heels of this time.
So the tentacles of this proposed cataclysm reached out widely enough for it to be labelled "global".
2.2
The Second-Last Extinction & Egypt's First Dark Age
The Old Kingdom of Egypt had its centre of power at Memphis, a highly organised city with a population
measured in tens of thousands. Then, almost inexplicably, the Egyptians left their city and moved – or fled –
up to Thebes, 600 km inland. The fertile lands of the delta were abandoned and famine obviously followed.
The time is referred to now as Egypt's First Dark Period, 2181 BC possibly until 2040 BC.
Historians have traditionally laid the blame for this precipitous action on the long reign of Pepi II, during
which time society had presumably been allowed to break down, making the empire vulnerable to invasion
by what are generally referred to as "unspecified Asiatics" and are sometimes renamed as "Hyksos". But if
invasion had been the reason for the Egyptian collapse, one could wonder why the invaders allowed the
Egyptians to escape, en mass, up to Thebes and why the invaders took so much trouble to destroy, almost
9
A moody Poseidon could have been anticipated since Greek mythology did associate Poseidon with Troy and he was
later accused of bringing on the "Flood of Dardanus" which was about the time of the loss of the Mycenaeans.
90
totally, the buildings and temples of Memphis. Would it not have been more logical for these homeless mobs
to utilise the existing facilities? Thirdly, one could wonder why, at the end of the millennium, the Egyptians
were able to move back to their old capital of Memphis without having to fight their way back through any
"conquering Asiatics"? The restoration of Memphis reads more like an amalgam of scattered communities.
Admittedly, Egypt's standards of luxury were gone. The pyramids they built after the Dark Age no longer
used hewn stone blocks but Nile mud – a material that did not last long, even when dried out. Those
structures remaining from the post-Dark Age are largely heaps of rubble.
Egypt is one of the few places around the Mediterranean that does not have a flood myth. However, when
Herodotus visited Egypt in the middle of the first millennium BC, he was informed by Egyptian priests that
Egypt had indeed suffered two flood events. More severe was the earlier one, presumably the one just
described, preceding the Dark Age, when the flooding extended all the way up to Thebes. 10
After this First Dark Age had run its course, other changes were noted in Egypt. For a start, the Nile was not
flowing as it used to. Folk records of the time tell of a completely dry Nile, with people being able to walk
from bank to bank. This folk record receives confirmation from another source: the burial chambers of
Ammemenes I, built in 1990 BC, were excavated in what are now the water logged alluvial sediments of the
Nile. Modern attempts at dewatering these chambers have failed and it would not have been possible to have
built these chambers in the Nile's sediments, if the Nile was flowing as today. At the time of construction,
then, the Nile must have been at least five metres below the present flow levels. Or maybe it was completely
dry, as registered in folk tales. So what had happened to the melting of the snow fields at the river's
headwaters, the annual event that brought routine and fertility to the Nile Delta? There are other perplexing
changes at the time, such as temples built on the west bank of the Nile, and several pyramids with the
entrances, not on the northern side as traditional, but on the southern. By around 1600 BC, however, things
appear to have settled down once more and astronomical alignments made in Egypt correspond closely with
today's observations as does the Heel Stone alignment of the final stage of Stonehenge, constructed around
1500 BC.
To return to the onset of Egypt's First Dark Age, we have evidence of other destruction levels from other
regions of the Mediterranean littoral. The listing goes something like this:On Crete, the palaces of Mallia, Phaistos and Zohros were destroyed and the Cretans fled to the hills. Malta's
thriving communities "fell into ruins" and the island was completely depopulated. When newcomers took up
residence there, some centuries later, they built little more that simple dolmens; poverty continued there for
another six centuries. Further west, the Ozieri culture in Sicily dispappeared, although some date this to have
been a little earlier.
In Greece, a dark period was incurred and, on this occasion, appears to have lasted something like 500 years.
The blame for this was put down to the "Flood of Deucalion", when myth records that the boat saving the
chosen couple rode high enough on the waters become grounded on the top of Mt Parnassus, near Delphi. In
this myth, like other flood myths, the rest of humanity perishes. Which was probably not so far from the
truth. Troy was destroyed in this cataclysm and the next three settlements on the site were no more than
simple villages. Established towns and cities of Palestine, like Byblos and Jericho, also suffered and their
recovery took centuries. The elevated Konya Plain, in Turkey, was emptied and nomadism followed. Ugarit,
on the coast of northern Syria, was "sacked", its destruction was sudden and complete, Willets (2004), who
goes on to say that this location was repopulated by ignorant people and that several thousand tablets
remaining after the destruction, on all manner of topics, were used by the new owners for construction
purposes. Again, the "Sea People" have been blamed for this total destruction, which suggests that their
marauding was pretty ubiquitous all around the Mediterranean littoral – not bad for scattered boat people.
The West's most famous flood, that of Noah, is dated by the Jewish calendar to have occurred when Noah
was aged fifty. Noah was reputed to die at some unbelievably great age, in 1998 BC. The Jewish calendar
does, however, differ slightly from the dates given in the Egyptian calendar but it would appear plausible to
connect Noah's flood with the Greek myth and the time of Egypt’s First Dark Period.
10
The later flood, taken here to be the one that finished off the Minoans, covered – according to the priests - the whole
area below Memphis, with a rise of some 6 m in the "flood level of the Nile". Since this flooded region is flat-lying and
also borders on the Mediterranean, a rise of this magnitude would not be possible without a similar rise in sea level.
91
It does not stop there. In Ireland, a flood myth speaks of a great wave from the sea at the end of the
millennium, allegedly annihilating all the people and turning the land into a desert for 200 years. In England,
Stonehenge Stage 1 was abandoned for a time and a soil profile developed in the peripheral ditch. At this
same time of four thousand or more years ago, the tiny stone village of Skara Brae, standing above the sea
shore of the Orkneys, north of Scotland, was precipitously abandoned. Evidence shows that the inhabitants
fled, dropping their chattels in mid-stride. The same pattern has been recognized in the sudden abandonment
of the well-established Harappan culture on the Indus River, at around the same time as the above events.
In China, oral traditions put the rise of their first civilisation at c 2000 BC, following a time when huge
waves swept over the land and, after which, the emperor sent out men to find again the cardinal points of the
compass. Which suggests that there had been some changes in the Earth's mode of spin at, or just before, the
time of the cataclysm.
The date of c 2,300 BC marks large cultural changes in Australia including the complete loss of human life
on Kangaroo Island, just off the coastline of South Australia. 11 In Tasmania, the population was decimated at
this same time and fish was dropped from the diet - a taboo still in operation when the first white sailors
called in to the island, over four millennia later. In the north of the same continent, new settlers arrived in
bulk, via South East Asia, bringing with them the spear thrower, a method of treating the poisonous Zamia
nut so that it could be safely eaten, and the dingo, which closely resembles the pariah dog of India. (The
dingo obviously made its way through South East Asia before the modern dog population was established
there, which was around 1000 BC.)
*
Bad enough as it must have been with global destructions and climatic changes at the time of Egypt's Dark
Age, this was not a "first" cataclysm of the Holocene. The epic of Gilgamesh speaks of the gates of the
Lower Ocean being knocked down and humans filling the sea like the spawn of fish. Gilgamesh was the fifth
king of Uruk, which places him in the closing centuries of the fourth millennium BC – a thousand years or
more prior to Egypt's First Dark Age. An even earlier destruction level, in the form of a silt bed, was exposed
by Woolley at nearby Ur. This has been dated around 4500 BC, or more than a millennium before
Gilgamesh. At around 4500 BC, Byblos - on the Mediterranean coast of what is now Lebanon - suffered
destruction. An even earlier destruction is indicated by the history of Catal Huyuk, on the Konya Plain in
Turkey. Situated at about 1000 m above sea level, Catal Huyuk had irrigation techniques in use by 6250 BC,
indicating a thriving culture. Its abandonment is dated as 5400 BC, although small settlements around
continued it into the next millennium. Jericho, built on an oasis 250 m below sea level, was a thriving centre
of farming and trading as far back as the beginning of the Holocene. It is unclear why it was initially
abandoned at some stage around 7200 BC but the site was later taken up by a people who left remains to
suggest an exceptional level of civilisation. By the sixth millennium BC, Jericho was probably a jewel in the
Neolithic crown. But it all came to an end and the four metre high city walls crumbled, the city mound
became eroded by erosion, and the next inhabitants of this oasis were another inferior breed, living in open
villages, with simple pottery, simple tools, simple life styles. Severe droughts have been cited as the cause of
Jericho's abandonment, but Jericho was built beside an oasis which means its water supply was tied to the
regional ground water table and one would have thought this could have withstood the effects of the severest
drought. Moreover, the erosion of the city walls does not sound like the result of a drought. So, the idea of a
"flood" is not to be ruled out.
*
What has not been discussed so far is the rate at which these "floods", or sea level changes, might have
occurred. Under a polar wander mechanism, one could imagine a steadily rising sea level gradually covering
a land mass and causing migration of animal and plant life to higher ground. But the time could arrive when
the whole of a land mass was inundated and all terrestrial life on that former land mass would then cease. On
the other hand, one imagines that marine life would be able to come to terms with such a leisurely change in
the distribution of the oceans. Sea level regression could, however, produce large scale migration of sea life,
together with the drying out of terrestrial water bodies, so affecting both terrestrial and fresh-water aquatic
animals.
A faster rate of sea level change could be expected during periods of magnified precessional "wobble". This
would have the effect of slowing down the rate of spin of the planet and no doubt causing the water to pile up
against the western coastlines of large continental masses, while the increased wobble would, by itself,
11
Humans did not return there until the arrival of the white man who found that the kangaroos on the island knew no
fear. Humans were able to walk right up to them and took advantage of this to club the animals to death.
92
presumably produce some sloshing about of the oceans. As the period of wobble abated, a rapid transition
back to an increased (steady) rate of Earth spin would cause the waters to pile up against the eastern
coastlines of large continents. 12 Marine life would be less successful under either form of "wobble" and
perhaps only those species inhabiting the ocean deeps might be better able to cope. Alternatively, those
terrestrial animals occupying the high ground or those able to live on both land and in water might have
made successful survivors. Obviously, more field work on matters of this kind would be required, if one
were to come to any detailed conclusions.
3
EXTINCTION EVENTS OF THE PLEISTOCENE
3.1
The End of the Pleistocene
The end of the Pleistocene is marked by huge reductions in the mega-fauna populations over three fifths of
the Earth's land surface, Scott (1937). The extinctions were particularly severe in both Americas where
Hibben (1946) estimates that some 40 million animals died in a period of no more than a few centuries:
between 15,000 and 12,000 years ago. The period of extinction is likely to have been even shorter than this,
to judge from the whole arrays of bones of mammoths, mastodons, giant beaver, sabre-toothed tigers, giant
sloths, bisons, woolly rhinoceros, bears, camels and horses that have been found packed in the Alaska
"muck" by Yukon gold fossickers. Their finds also included fragments of skin, hair, flesh, toenails,
ligaments, trees and even some human remains. The same arrays of fossil mammals have been recorded in
the gravels of New Jersey, in terraces in Texas (dated 12,600 BP), and in the tar pits of Los Angeles. Mass
graveyards of a similar ilk are also present in South America, stretching from Caracas to Patagonia. The
northern-most ones and those found in Bolivia are present at elevations up to 4000m, but there is a gradual
decline in elevations to close to sea level in the far south. 13 The graveyards often have the appearance of
dunes, which would suggest they were accumulated by the winnowing effects of an oceanic shore.
In Patagonia, Pampas muds occur with the same appearance as the Alaska "muck" and of the Calgary silts:
homogeneous deposits, without stratification and with a uniform colour, characteristic of a tumultuous
deposition. There are bones in the lower parts of the Pampas deposits, while entire animals have been found
on the circumference of the upper parts of these deposits. In his "Geology and Palaeontology of Argentina",
A. Woodward found Pampas muds near the Le Plata estuary, containing Recent mussels distributed among
reptilian remains and sub-tropical flora, indicating that the ocean waters which covered the Pampas plains in
the Late Pleistocene were then warmer than at this latitude today. Similar muds have also been found in
South American caves along with both human and other bones.
America was not alone in this massive extinction event that brought the Pleistocene to a close. The same loss
of large mammals occurred in Europe and Russia at this time. Mammoths and the woolly rhino were both
extant prior to this date. Three thousand years later they were gone, along with other animals noted in the
North American cataclysms. Sheep and the Irish deer disappeared while the horse population was severely
reduced.
These findings all led Darwin to wonder what catastrophe had exterminated whole genera, across half the
face of the Earth. Soon after Darwin's time, the idea of over-kill by hunter gatherer bands began to emerge as
a favourite explanation among the scientific community, but Darwin had already defused that argument by
noting that the mass "graveyards" of the Americas not only contained large mammals but things like mice,
which have still not been brought to extinction despite all the modern killing technologies that are available
today. Yet the idea of extermination, through the migration of superior human groups into new lands, lives
on. Thus, a majority of authorities in the USA are still unwilling to allow any Homo sapiens to be present in
South America until after the end of the last Ice Age, say c 11,000 BC. This limitation allows the blame for
these extinction events to be placed on overkill by the bands of new hunter-gatherers, migrating down the
two American continents at the end of the Pleistocene.
But the point about high sea levels is that they are likely to wipe out most traces of humans from before the
event. Despite the penchant for human overkill, there have been findings of earlier man in various parts of
America, with the oldest in eastern Brazil, Patagonia and in the Andes, while human presence in North
America also predates "floods": in north central Texas (38,000 BP); on Santa Rosa Is, California (29,500
BP); and, back in 1844, a Danish explorer Lund found eight skulls in association with the bones of the giant
12
13
The Missoula Flood, sourced from the eastern side of the Rocky Mountain Cordillera, fits this sort of response.
Suggesting a sea level gradient, from north to south, of the order of 1 : 1000.
93
sloth and other extinct animals, all in an equal state of fossilisation in caves in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Other
investigations in Ecuador revealed long headed skulls and artefacts in association with the bones of
mastodons, sloths and horses. These findings are reasonable indications that early man was in South America
before the major extinction event. However, a team of prominent archaeologists from the USA, when invited
to Mexico to see a mammoth skeleton with spear markings, claimed that a number of animals obviously
survived extinction and lived on into Holocene times to be destroyed by humans. And maybe there were
some that did. It all sounds a bit like the manner in which authorities in the second half of the 19th Century
refused to believe there had been such a sub-species as Neanderthal man, see below. However, after the
descriptions of what have been proposed as major rises in sea level, it is hoped that events like the Missoula
"Floods" (USA) and the Lake Titicaca Enigmas (Bolivia), become less mysterious.
An interesting parallel might be drawn here with the pre-history of Australia. Up until about 1970, it was
widely held that the Aborigines could have been able to reach the island continent only during the 100 m
drop in sea level associated with the last Ice Age – say, around the end of the Pleistocene, 13,000 BP. Then
rock art, labelled the Bradshaw paintings, received closer attention and was found to belong to a much earlier
people, possibly going back as far back as 40,000 years ago. Then, quite independently, it was discovered
that the concentrations of charcoal/ash in the topsoils showed a sudden increase at about this same time, a
change that could be attributed to the annual burning-off practices of early man. This set the ball rolling and
now there is no viable objection to the idea of some 40,000 – 50,000 years of occupation of Australia.
*
In Australia, it was once considered that the major extinction event took place c 20,000 bp - a date that does
not appear to have been noticed as significant in the northern hemisphere, but perhaps this is because glaciers
moved down over North America and parts of Europe soon after this time, obviously with the capacity to
destroy much of the remains that could be studied today by archaeologists. In Australia, not subject to
glaciations of any severity, the evidence suggests a loss of some 85% of the large marsupials at c 20,000 bp:
the giant kangaroo; Euryzygoma; Diprotodon, the giant wombat; others that are still remembered in the
Australian Aboriginal legends of the Dreamtime. If these Dreamtime legends had not been confirmed by
palaeontologists, one could wonder what sort of disbelief might have been engendered in today's rational
world, where the marsupials we see are only midget cousins.
As mentioned above, over-hunting has traditionally been blamed for most of these extinctions, but the timing
in Australia coincides with the loss of human populations, as well: 20,000 years ago marks the disappearance
of the people depicted in the Bradshaw paintings of North West Australia. However, not everyone was lost.
The fact that stories of the Dreamtime animals have been passed on down to the present day indicates that
enough people did survive the extinction event to pass the stories on. As an aside, a fanciful explanation is
sometimes proffered for above mentioned extinction event in Australia, twenty thousand years ago, and that
is: the onset of cold weather, leading to the last Ice Age, caused a lowering in libido amongst the larger
animals, so that they no longer felt like breeding. This would be a remarkable feat if, indeed, it did occur, for
the extinction would have pre-dated the onset of the last Ice Age's cold weather by a millennia or two.
More recently, there has been an upsurge in the investigation of extinctions in Australia. Johnson (2006)
suggests that 100,000 years ago there were some 340 species of land mammals in Australia. Sixty seven of
these are now extinct. This author also suggests there were three waves of extinction and favours the idea of
climate change and the drying up of fresh water reserves as the cause. Except for the fact that the same
extinctions were also recorded in Papua New Guinea where highland rainfall remained high.
An early wave of extinction has been dated around 46,000 years ago, Roberts (2001), which is close to the
time of the arrival of the first humans. These people, however, were without the spear thrower and flint spear
tips and unlikely to be able to dispatch some 50 species of mammals, some enormous in size. Another wave
of extinctions has been recorded at some stage between 40,000 and 30,000 years ago and, on the basis of sea
level cataclysms, one is tempted to suggest these dates might focus on the extinction event that ended the
Neanderthal domination of Europe and the Near East and also produced the frozen mammoths and buffaloes
of Russia and North America - around 35,000 years ago. See later.
*
Africa suffered during the traditional Australian event of 20,000 BP but apparently not so badly. Here, there
is also evidence of an earlier event dated some 50,000 BP, which brought about a loss approaching 30% of
the large game – again an event which might not be considered too disastrous, as these events go.
94
Between these two African events, Europe and the Middle East underwent the major change just mentioned
above, when the Mousterian culture was lost and huge numbers of mammoths and quite a few buffaloes were
frozen, around 35,000 years ago. But this is where most authorities dig in their heels with regard to cause.
Most attribute the loss of human cultures even as far back as this to clashes with a more superior and more
dominant race. This view is worthy of a few more words.
3.2
The Disappearance of the Neanderthals
The first fossil of a Neanderthal man, at what we might now describe as late middle age, was discovered in a
cave above the Rhine, near Dusseldorf in Germany, in 1856. The find was several years before Darwin's
revolutionary book on evolution and so the skeleton was passed through various hands to be identified in
various ways – all of which precluded the assumption of any earlier type of homo sapiens. The
identifications included: a large bear; an unfortunate human, washed into the cave by Noah's Flood; a preCeltic barbarian or a hydrocephalic idiot who lived in the forest; a man with rickets, the pain of which made
him knot his brows which then became ossified; a modern man who suffered a blow to the head; and
(because of the bandy legs) a horseman, probably a Cossack, pursued and wounded by Napoleon and who
crawled into the cave to die...
In England, the finding was not known until after Darwin's bombshell and so Huxley and the geologist Lyell
at first did not believe the skeleton represented a fossil. Neither did a professor at Bonn University, a leading
biologist, who claimed the skeleton was a crippled unfortunate that lived to old age because he lived in a
caring society - and therefore he was not of any great geological age. The professor kept up his antiNeanderthal stand for thirty years, dismissing any new finds with even more fanciful explanations.
A second Neanderthal skull, this time with stone tools, was found thirty years later in Belgium, only to
receive a similar sort of appraisal as given above, thus showing the power of established prejudice over
prudent logic. By the early Twentieth Century, however, Neanderthal finds were becoming common and the
age of this fossil man was gradually accepted. So also was the Neanderthal's place in the scheme of things
eventually accepted. Despite the ape-man appearance, the thick eyebrow ridge, the stone tools, these
Mousterian individuals were quite advanced in other ways. Their brain was larger than today's brain, they
indulged in ceremonial burials (one of the reasons for the large numbers of finds), and they probably
invented the art of making fires. Their culture was widespread in Europe and extended into the Middle East
and over much of Africa. From the bone structure and the size of the muscle attachments to these bones, it
would appear that even a Neanderthal housewife could have beaten a modern day Mr Universe in an arm
wrestle.
When Cro-Magnon arrived on the European scene, c 40,000 BP, evidence suggests that there was a degree of
interbreeding, although whether this represents a friendly relationship or one of rape and pillaging is
unknown. However, if this interbreeding was successful over following generations, as seems likely, it does
confirm that both races were quite closely related, with no further than a sub-species distance between
them. 14 The culture has now been given the status of a sub-species Homo sapiens neanderthalensis.
The widespread populations of Neanderthals in Europe and the Near East then disappeared approximately
35,000 years ago. The allegedly superior sub-species, Cro-Magnon, has long been considered a likely suspect
in this removal, but such a view bears some reflection. For a start, it seems unrealistic to suggest that CroMagnon was able to achieve any massive genocide by physical means. The Cro-Magnons were migrants into
Europe, probably arriving as disparate groups. The Neanderthals were an established race with a 65,000 year
history allowing them to occupy closely all the lands as they wished – not only in Europe but further to the
east and to the south. Brain power and hunting skills might have done the trick for the Cro-Magnons, yet the
Neanderthals were the ones with the bigger brains. Finally, the subsequent performance of Cro-Magnon does
not give much support for the idea of an upwardly-mobile sub-species. Twenty thousand years after the
disappearance of the human dinosaurs, the smaller-brained Cro-Magnons were still living a disjointed and
partly troglodyte existence in the caves of Europe. Their Palaeolithic art reveals little evidence of warfare,
being more concerned with the hunting of large animals.
A greater significance should perhaps be given to the fact that the Mousterian eclipse is, as mooted above,
contemporaneous with the snap freezing of the buffaloes and mammoths in Siberia and North America.
Again, we are confronted with the evidence of some rapid change in climate and, incidentally, a change in
14
For when interbreeding takes place across the species barrier the progeny, if any, are typically sterile: viz. horses and
donkeys can make mules, but there it stops.
95
polar position. Paleomagnetic results from Australia indicate a magnetic pole some 120º away from its
present position, 30,000 years ago. So this brings us back to the postulate of large climatic – and large sea
level - changes as a likely cause for the collapse of the well-established Neanderthals, while Cro-Magnons
could have survived the event better because the Neanderthals allowed them only the higher-elevation-cavedwellings for settlement. Who knows? But this arrangement would fit the patterns that has emerged from
later extinction events, as already described: established populations suffer almost complete annihilation
while more primitive bands of people, typically hill and mountain dwellers, survive and are then able to
come down from the high ground to repopulate the lands that have been emptied – not only of established
human centres but also probably of predatory animals.
*
With respect to the last few words above, it has been found that, after 35,000 BP, there was an increase in the
numbers of buried corpses unearthed by archaeologists. Here, the traditional assumption has been some
change in burial customs – as might have happened in a change-over from Neanderthals to Cro-Magnons.
But the Neanderthals buried their dead, as well. A logical solution to this buried corpse enigma is given by
Clive Gamble in his book The Sleep Walkers. Here, he argues that the lack of whole human skeletons, prior
to 35,000 BP was most likely because carnivores dug up the buried skeletons. He cites cases of carnivore
tooth marks on Neanderthal skulls. After the probable extinction event at 35,000 BP, there would have been
a noticeable drop in the carnivore populations of Europe as well, and hence a rise in the numbers of
preserved corpses.
3.3
Miscellany
Homo sapiens has been given a likely date of c 80,000 BP for the beginnings of the exodus out of Africa,
eventually covering most of the world. One could wonder what sort of extinction event might have brought
about this action. Some relevant data is available on this time, and on the preceding millennia, from corals.
Because of the requirements of climate for their procreation and growth, corals have been essential for
establishing equatorial alignments of the geological past. Some of this evidence was set out in James (1993).
Corals also have been of value in determining the climate during the Upper Palaeolithic – just prior to the
time that Homo sapiens set out on his globe-trotting adventures. In addition to their annual growth rings,
corals also exhibit a banding that can be distinguished by X-Ray diffraction and this was studied by scientists
at the Australian Institute of Marine Science (Townsville, Queensland). Under long wave untraviolet light,
Dr P. Isdale found a yellow-green fluorescence that results when corals grow in sea water containing humic
acid, an acid derived from terrestrial run-off. In Queensland, the so-affected corals are confined to some 20
km off a coastline with both a rain forest hinterland and a high rainfall.
Similar work was undertaken on corals along the coast of Sinai in the Red Sea, which now has neither a lush
forested hinterland nor a high rainfall. Present-day corals show no evidence of the above fluorescence.
However, in almost every sample of fossil corals obtained from several terraces, aged between 100,000 to
250,000 BP, the fluorescent banding was evident. The strength of the banding was such as to indicate that
this part of the world was then much the same as North Queensland today: generally wet with a wetter wet
season, together with associated rain forests to supply the humic acids. Better evidence of a recent change in
environment, from rain forest to desert, is difficult to find 15 and it could be that this favourable climate in the
north of Africa and in the Middle East, a hundred thousand years ago, might encouraged the early migrations
of homo sapiens out of Africa.
*
Despite all the cataclysms in the history of this planet, partly outlined at the beginning, it has been the last
one of the five major events that has caught the public imagination: the disappearance of the dinosaurs at the
end of the Cretaceous Period, usually referred to as the K-T (Cretaceous – Tertiary) boundary, sixty five
million years ago. This loss was not the most severe extinction event by any means, but it has become
celebrated perhaps because of the majestic size of the dinosaurs, the longevity of their various species, and
also the dramatic idea of a celestial bombardment.
In the 1980s, the proposal that a meteorite impact had finished off the dinosaurs became so attractive that
many Earth Scientists began to wonder whether large meteorite impacts could have been a factor in other
extinctions. For instance, neglecting the tsunami effects (if the impact was at sea), an astronomical collision
was proposed as being capable of filling the atmosphere with the dust of collision, bringing on a nuclear
15
However, it is understood that, on the other side of the globe, a reverse change – from desert to rainforest – is present
in the southern Amazon basin where former sand dunes are now vegetated.
96
winter. In the case of the dinosaur dispenser, an imprint of the impact was a high Iridium horizon marking
the K-T Boundary.
Louis Alvarez and a team from Berkley University were the ones to uncover the high Iridium horizon and
argued that Iridium is rare on Earth but is contained in meteorites: hence a meteorite impact could have
supplied the atmosphere with sufficient to iridium to form this distinct horizon when the dust settled out on
the Earth's surface. The idea was taken up and popularised by Stephen Jay Gould.
While this was a neat association, the nexus has turned out to be not as convincing as it first appeared.
Iridium can be derived from volcanic activity as well, and the K-T Boundary falls within a period of massive
lava outpourings, such as those forming the Deccan, of India. The editor of the NCGT journal was kind
enough to refer the author to a paper by Bridges (2004) dealing with the relationship between iridium and
volcanic activity at Chixculub (Mexico) – a site that had originally been claimed as caused by a meteorite
impact. There is also evidence presented in a symposium held by the Geological Society of America (Global
Catastrophes in World History, Ed. V.L. Sharpton, 1991). A paper was delivered claiming that field mapping
showed fossil assemblages persisted right across the high Iridium horizon with little, if any, change. That is,
the high Iridium horizon did not mark any widespread extinction event, at least not in North America.
However, there had been a major extinction event in the geological sequence something like half a million
years before the high Iridium horizon. And there was another extinction event identified at a similar interval
after the horizon. The earlier extinction was associated with a sea level high, or what was labelled a tsunami
event by the authors; the later extinction was associated with a sea level regression.
This statement is not made in any vain attempt to deny the occurrence of celestial bombardment of this
planet. Plimer (01) calculates from known craters, of 100km or more in diameter, that the Earth has been the
butt at least thirty large impacts since the Permian16. That would imply we could expect a fairly substantial
thump every five to ten million years. The question now is: when will our time be up? Fortunately, the vast
majority of the impacts of the past appear to have had little more than a localised effect, among which could
be included the localised emplacement of basic ore bodies from deeper in the Earth as a direct result of the
shock of impact. Nevertheless, the effect of a large meteorite lingers on as a cause of the dinosaurs'
extinction with the support of many biologists who like its clean cut concept. 17
A final word on the demise of the dinosaurs might be offered on philosophical grounds, as follows: - If the
meteorite impact was so huge as to cause a nuclear winter, why did this not kill off a similarly wide selection
of other land-based animals, as well as the dinosaurs? Low profile mammals survived the event - and in
sufficient numbers to lead to their own eventual dominance of the world. Included with these lowly
mammals were crocodiles, turtles, frogs and some birds, Jacobs (2000). So, one could pose the question: did
these animals survive because of some environmental reason? Small mammals would almost certainly have
colonised a different environment from the dinosaurs, perhaps having free rein in the Cretaceous jungles
and/or high terrains or other environments that would not have been advantageous to the lifestyles of the
heavy and/or fast monster reptiles, for most dinosaurs would surely have preferred the plains, the swamps,
and the shallow seas.
But if we are dealing with an impact's nuclear winter, surely this would have had a disastrous effect on
birds and on the jungles/high terrains, as well as on environments utilised by the dinosaurs. The fact that the
birds, the amphibious crocodiles, turtles and frogs, and the lowly mammals, did survive surely suggests that
their environments were advantageous – as would be the situation if the cause of the dinosaur extinctions
was their being washed off the land by sea level change. Hence, maybe we need to look beyond the idea of a
nuclear winter in order to explain the selective loss of the dinosaurs.
*
A final word is also offered on other in-house extinction mechanisms, this time the mechanism of a major
volcanic eruption. Much larger volcanoes than anything seen in historical times would no doubt have been
required to set off a nuclear winter. But here we run up against the requirement that geological conditions in
16
A meteorite 100 km in diameter – which would incidentally leave a much larger crater - is only about one millionth
of the mass of the Earth, so it is unlikely to knock the Earth out of kilter to any degree.
17
As H.D.F. Kitto said on page 69 of the Pelican Edition of his book The Greeks: "... (A single) theory is attractive
especially for those who like to have one majestic explanation for any phenomenon, (even though) it might not seem to
be true..."
97
the past need to be assumed greater than they are today. Obviously, if we go back as far as the Pre-Cambrian,
conditions would have been more extreme, due to a higher rate of Earth spin. But the model for earthquake
mechanisms developed by the author for future publication in the NCGT Journal, implies that there is likely
to be an upper limit to the size of volcanic eruptions over the last few hundred million years. Krakatoa, on
this basis, is probably near the upper limit of energy release during more recent geological periods. Another
famous eruption, that of Thera in the middle of the Second Millennium BC, used to be cited as gigantic
enough to cause the loss of the Minoan Empire, but the evidence outlined above reveals that the explanation
does not hold up.
Having said this, Lake Taupo - the crater-lake in the north island of New Zealand - is claimed to have been
the result a far greater eruption – or eruptions - than Krakatoa. Dated at c 26,000 BP, there does not appear to
have been any widespread extinction event identified with the eruption. However, the timing was, as far as
we know, prior to any human habitation of the island or, indeed, of the south west Pacific, but perhaps future
investigations might reveal evidence to the contrary.
REFERENCES
Aggasiz, A., 1876. Hydrographic sketch of Lake Titicaca. Amer. Academy of Arts & Sciences, v. XI, p. 283-292.
Alt, D., 2001. Glacial Lake Missoula and its Humongous Floods. Montana Press Publ. Co. American Museum of
Natural History, Anthropology papers, v. 23.
Bridges, L.W.D., 2004. The volcanic interpretation of Chixculub, Mexico. NCGT Newsletter, no. 32, p. 9-14.
Bruhns, K.O., Ancient South America. Cambridge World Archaeology.
Gratz, A.T., Nellis, W.J. and Hinsey, N.A., 1992. Laboratory simulation of explosive loading and implications for the
cause of the K-T Boundary. Geophys. Res. Letters, v. 19, no. 13, p. 1391-1394.
Hendy, E., The LIA and the western tropical Pacific. Aus. Inst. Marine Science.
Herodotus. The Histories. Penguin.
Hibben, F.C., 1946. The Lost Americans. Crowell, N.Y.
Hutchinson, R.W., 1962. Prehistoric Crete. Pelican Ed.
Jacobs, L., 2000. Quest for the African Dinosaurs. John Hopkins Univ. Press, Baltimore.
James, P.M., 1992. Very large changes in sea level. 6th Aus/NZ Geomech. Conf.,
James, P.M., 1993. The Teconics of Geoid Change. Polar Publ., Calgary.
Johnson, C., 2006. Australia's Mammal Extinctions, a 50,000 year history. CUP
Kitto, H.D.F., 1974 edition. The Greeks. Pelican
Leakey, R. and Lewin, R., 1996. The Sixth Extinction. Wiedenfield & Nicholson, U.K.
Plimer, I., 2001. A Short History of Planet Earth. ABC Books.
Reinhardt, J., 1868. Bone caves of Brazil and animal remains. Amer. Jour. Science, v. XCVI, p. 264.
Roberts, R.G., 2001a. The last Australian mega-fauna. Aus. Science, v. 22, p. 40-41.
Scott, W.B., 1937. A History of Land Mammals in the Western Hemisphere. Macmillan.
Shakley, M., 1980. Neanderthal Man. Duckworth.
Sharpton, V.L. and Ward, P.D., 1991. Global catastrophes in world history. Geol. Soc. of Amer., Special Paper 247.
Sheppard, G., 1927. Geological observations on the Isla de la Plata. Amer. Jnl. Sc., v. 13, p. 480-486.
Whitaker, J.H. (ed.), 1966. Submarine Canyons and Deep Sea Fans. Benchmark Papers in Geology, Dowden
Hutchinson & Ross.
Willets, R.F., 2004. The Civilisations of Ancient Crete. Phoenix Press.
Woodward, A., Geology and Palaeontology of Argentina.
Woolley, Sir L., 1953. A Forgotten Kingdom. Pelican Ed.
98
PUBLICATIONS
Solar Flare Five-Day Predictions from Quantum Detectors of Dynamical Space Fractal Flow
Turbulence: GravitationalWave Diminution and Earth Climate Cooling
Reginald T. Cahill
School of Chemical and Physical Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide 5001, Australia.
Email: reg.cahill@flinders.edu.au
Progress in Physics, v. 10, Issue 4 (October), p. 236-242, 2014.
Abstract: Space speed fluctuations, which have a 1/f spectrum, are shown to be the cause of solar flares. The
direction and magnitude of the space flow has been detected from numerous different experimental
techniques, and is close to the normal to the plane of the ecliptic. Zener diode data shows that the
fluctuations in the space speed closely match the Sun Solar Cycle 23 flare count, and reveal that major solar
flares follow major space speed fluctuations by some 6 days. This implies that a warning period of some 5
days in predicting major solar flares is possible using such detectors. This has significant consequences in
being able to protect various spacecraft and Earth located electrical systems from the subsequent arrival of
ejected plasma from a solar flare. These space speed fluctuations are the actual gravitational waves, and have
a significant magnitude. This discovery is a significant application of the dynamical space phenomenon and
theory. We also show that space flow turbulence impacts on the Earth’s climate, as such turbulence can input
energy into systems, which is the basis of the Zener Diode Quantum Detector. Large scale space fluctuations
impact on both the sun and the Earth, and as well explain temperature correlations with solar activity, but
that the Earth temperatures are not caused by such solar activity. This implies that the Earth climate debate
has been missing a key physical process. Observed diminishing gravitational waves imply a cooling epoch
for the Earth for the next 30 years.
(Reproduction of this abstract permitted by the author)
*******************
On the relationship between cosmic rays, solar activity and
powerful earthquakes
Mikhail Kovalyov and S. Kovalyov,
mkovalyo@ualberta.ca
(This paper appeared in “arXiv:1403.5728v2 [physics.gen-ph]”, 10 Feb 2015. Permission for reproduction granted by
the authors)
Abstract: Cosmic rays play much more prominent role that is currently believed; specifically: 1) cosmic ray
intensity seems to correlate with seismic activity on Earth much better than solar activity; 2) not only the
solar activity regulates the flow of cosmic rays, as is currently accepted, but also the cosmic rays influence the
solar activity, which currently is somewhat of a heretic statement.
Excerpts from the text:
…… The interaction of cosmic rays with the Earth is not just two-way but rather three-way: 1) cosmic rays
affect the Earth directly in a variety of ways; 2) cosmic rays affect the Earth indirectly by affecting solar
activity; 3) the changes in the Earth’s magnetic field, some due to the flow of plasma in the liquid core also
responsible for seismic activity on Earth, affect the cosmic ray flow near Earth. Thus the correlations
between CRI and seismic activity described in the next section may have occurred through either one of
these channels or a combination of either two or even all three of them.
99
The top frame shows cosmic ray intensity with resolution of one hour according to http://cr0.izmiran.rssi.ru/mosc/main.htm,
it shows a sharp drops in May-June, 1991. The bottom left frame zooms in on the days of the drop, the decreasing stage
of the graph almost periodic local maxima re-appearing every 4.8 days. The bottom center frame shows that the
sublunar and subsolar points were just above Mount Pinatubo on June 12, 1991 at 3:30 am UTC just before the
beginning of the violent phase of the eruption, according to
http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/sunearth.html?n=0&day=12&month=6&year=1991&hour=3&min=30&sec=0. The
bottom right frame shows the sublunar and subsolar points on June 15, 1991 at 7:40 am UTC shortly before the climax
eruption, they were aligned with Mount Pinatubo shown by a red star, according to
http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/sunearth.html?n=0&day=15&month=6&year=1991&hour=7&min=40&sec=0.
The left frame shows earthquakes of magnitude > 6:0; the right frame shows earthquakes of magnitude > 5:4: Three
earthquakes marked green in the left frame are aligned along a straight line, the fourth one is very close to the line; on
the Mercator projection all four are aligned along a straight line. Three of these earthquakes occurred on June 15, one on
June 9 but there was a magnitude 4.6 earthquake at about the same location on June 15. Four earthquakes on the same
day aligned along a straight line is quite unusual. Three of these earthquakes were accompanied by powerful
foreshocks/aftershocks shown by green arrow in the frame on the right.
Source: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
100
CRI and SSN vs earthquakes of magnitude > 7.8. Red solid vertical lines represent earthquakes of magnitude > 8.1,
green broken vertical lines represent earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 and 8.1; green dot-dash vertical lines represent
earthquakes of magnitude 7.9; and purple broken vertical lines represent earthquakes of magnitude 7.8. The blue and
brown curves show CRI and SSN. Several groups of earthquakes are shown under the main graph. The list of the
earthquakes was obtained by taking all earthquakes of magnitude > 8.0 from and supplementing with the magnitude 7.8
– 7.9 (USGS).
________________________________________________________________________________________________
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T
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ABOUT THE NCGT JOURNAL
The New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, the predecessor of the current NCGT Journal, was initiated on the
basis of discussion at the symposium “Alternative Theories to Plate Tectonics” held at the 30th International Geological
Congress in Beijing in August 1996. The name is taken from an earlier symposium held at Smithsonian Institution,
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Newsletter changed its name to NCGT Journal in 2013.
Aims include:
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4. Organization of symposia, meetings and conferences.
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ncgt journal - New Concepts in Global Tectonics

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