joint expert study on competitiveness of batam-bintan
Transcription
joint expert study on competitiveness of batam-bintan
JOINT EXPERT STUDY ON COMPETITIVENESS OF BATAM-BINTAN-KARIMUN COMMISSIONED BY THE SINGAPORE-INDONESIA JOINT WORKING GROUP ON “BATAM, BINTAN AND KARIMUN SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES AND OTHER SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES” (INDONESIA’S COORDINATING MINISTRY OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS AND SINGAPORE’S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BOARD) CO-AUTHORED BY: PROFESSOR UMAR JUORO MEMBER, NATIONAL ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (KOMITE EKONOMI NASIONAL) OF THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA; DR TAN KHEE GIAP & DR TAN KONG YAM CO-DIRECTORS, ASIA COMPETITIVENESS INSTITUTE LEE KUAN YEW SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY, NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE APRIL 2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS PART 1: COMPETITIVENESS OF FREE TRADE ZONE BATAM, BINTAN, KARIMUN (BBK) BY: PROFESSOR UMAR JUORO MEMBER, NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL (KOMITE EKONOMI NASIONAL), APPOINTED BY THE PRESIDENT OF REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA; PART 2: COMPETITIVENESS ANALYSIS FOR KEPULAULAN RIAU VIS-À-VIS 33 INDONESIAN PROVINCES REVITALIZATION AND AND INTEGRATED UPGRADING OF APPROACH TO MANUFACTURING COMPETITIVENESS OF BATAM, BINTAN & KARIMUN SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES (BBK SEZs) WITH INDUSTRY-SPECIFIC FOCUS ON ENTERPRISE SERVERS, STORAGE & NETWORKING SYSTEM (ESSNS), CONSUMERS ELECTRONICS & ELECTRICAL COMPONENTS (CEEC) SHIPBUILDING, SUPPORT EQUIPMENT FOR OIL AND GAS DRILLING (SOG) CLUSTERS BY: DR TAN KHEE GIAP & DR TAN KONG YAM CO-DIRECTORS, ASIA COMPETITIVENESS INSTITUTE LEE KUAN YEW SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE NOTE: THE FIRST DRAFT WAS ALSO PRESENTED AT THE SEMINAR ON “RELATIVE COMPETITIVENESS AND REVITALIZATION OF BBK IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL AND GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE”, BINTAN, INDONESIA, 18 OCTOBER 2012. PART 1: COMPETITIVENESS OF FREE TRADE ZONE BATAM, BINTAN, KARIMUN (BBK) BY: PROFESSOR UMAR JUORO MEMBER, NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL (KOMITE EKONOMI NASIONAL), APPOINTED BY THE PRESIDENT OF REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA COMPETITIVENESS OF FREE TRADE ZONE BATAM, BINTAN, KARIMUN (BBK) Introduction Batam, Bintan and Karimun were granted as Free Trade Zone in 2007 Batam has been a bounded zone to facilitate manufacturing export since 1986. Since then there have been several changes to develop Batam as a growth center. Recently, Batam, Bintan, and Karium were granted as FTZs (Free Trade Zone) in 2007. But only in 2009, the apparatus for Batam, Bintan, and Karimun (BBK) FTZs were completed. The FTZs law has been accompanied by government regulation and minister decision for implementation. The most recent regulation is PP No 10/2012 that gives four facilities namely additional free port, free custom clearance, no "master list" for imported goods. Batam has been able to attract FDI in electrical and electronics, shipyard, and supporting oil and gas industry The strategic location of BBK, in busy Strait Malacca and proximity to Singapore gives BBK an advantage to attract FDI (Foreign Direct Investment). Batam has been able to attract FDI in electrical and electronics, shipyard, and supporting oil and gas industry. Meanwhile, Bintan and Karimun are relatively new FTZs, so that no significant FDI came to these locations yet, even though part of Bintan, Lobam area, has been designated as bounded area for quite long time. With the competition of FTZs in the region, BBK has to improve themselves to make them attractive, otherwise investors do not have interest to invest in BBK, and the existing investor might leave Batam.. The main obstacle of The main obstacle of BBK development is institutional problems BBK development is related to the work of authority and its working relationship with local institutional and national government. Unclear regulations discourage investors. In problems addition, labor problem is serious issue. Although infrastructure is adequate for Batam in the meantime, there a need for capacity expansion in port and electricity. Bintan and Karimun in general do not have adequate infrastructure. PART 1 -- Page 1 This study addresses those institutional problems and the need for infrastructure development, especially in Bintan and Karimun. This study also develop a road map for competitiveness of electrical and electronics industry, supporting oil and gas, shipyard, and the potential data storage and network system. FTZs BBK; regulation, infrastructure and investment. The government regulations in 2007 stated the boundaries of FTZs Batam Bintan Karimun FTZ BBK formally launched in 2009 with three separate FTZs, namely Batam that relatively more developed, and three other FTZs, namely Bintan, Tanjung Pinang (also in Bintan) and Karimun. The government regulations in 2007 stated the boundaries of these FTZs. Neverthless, Batam FTZ has been extended recently to include Janda Berhias island. Figure 1: The map of FTZs BBK. The authority is supervised by Board of FTZ (Dewan Kawasan/DK) chaired by Governor FTZs is run by an authority that supposed to be professional and independent. The authority is supervised by Board of FTZ (Dewan Kawasan/DK) chaired by Governor with vice chairman is related mayor or head of district, and members from various institutions, among other tax office, costum, police, and military. This membership of DK is more as symbolic representatives than strategically needed. Infrastructure in Batam is quite developed, except that Batam port is not keep up with the growing of the economy Infrastructure in Batam is quite developed, except that Batam port is not keep up with the growing of the economy. Infrastructure in Bintan PART 1 -- Page 2 and Karimun is lag behind and inadequate to attract investors Table 1 shows the general information of infrastructure condition in BBK. Tabel 1 General Information of Infrastructure Condition in BBK Figure 2: Composition of Investment in Batam (2011) Total US$ 14.9 billion. The growth of investment has not been high enough and lag behind compare to its competitors Batam has been able to attract FDI especially in electrical and electronics, oil and gas supporting, and shipyard industries. However, the growth of investment has not been high enough and lag behind compare to its competitors, such as Penang, and Waigaoqiao in PART 1 -- Page 3 Shanghai. Recently Batam faces a serious competitor from nearby Johor Iskandar Development. Figure 2 shows investment in Batam in which 20.11 percent is government, and 41.31 percent is FDI. This shows that FDI dominates investment in Batam. In 2011, FDI in Batam was USD 6.16 billion. In 2012 FDI is around USD 7.2 billion. Figure 3 shows Batam export mainly electrical machinery and equipment (30 percent), followed by machinery and mechanical appliances parts (17 percent), and ships, boats and floating structures (11 percent). Figure 3: Export’s Batam (2011) FDI in Bintan and Karimun FTZs is still in early stage FDI in Bintan and Karimun FTZs is still in early stage. In Bintan practically investment that existed is the left from Lobam bonded zone. In Karimun FDI started coming in shipyard. However, it still long away to go for Bintan and Karimun to attract FDI significantly. Figure 4 shows SWOT analysis for FTzs BBK. The strength is strategic location, trade openness, labor availability, and strong relation with Singapore. In order to develop as investment destination, FTZs BBK should exploit its strengths as much as possible. The issue of institutions and regulations The main issue for development of BBK is related with institutions The main issue for development of BBK is related with institutions. Despite the law, government regulation, and minister decision are in PART 1 -- Page 4 place, but the issue on custom related to import, especially on consumption goods is problematic. This is a consequence especially for Batam with FTZ status and population inside the FTZ. The concern from custom is always about leaking imported goods to custom area outside FTZ. Figure 4: SWOT Analysis for FTZ BBK FTZ BBK SWOT Analysis 2009-2012 STRENGTHS Strategic location The existence of skilled labor Sound regional economic relationships within Indonesia Strong relationship with Singapore International trade openness Urban population Relatively high percapita income Massive capital inflow to Indonesia the Development of ASEAN more significant as part of Global economic growth engine The potential of Indonesia as a center of shipping and logistics Relocation companies due to globalization Relocation of industries due to rising overhead costs in China OPPORTUNITIES WEAKNESSES Lack of high-tech skilled labor. Lack of integration between business processes and application procedures. Conflicting policies between local government and central government. Lack of policy and infrastructure support to train local workers. Low business creation. Limited availability of land for future development Limited basic infrastructure. The absence of innovation industry less than optimal Economic Growth and Investment level inefficient of Bureaucratic Process. Competition from other industrial zones especially in Johor Malaysia The Changing on Singapore's economic dynamism The barriers on trade which discourage economic development THREATS There is also concern There is also concern from investors for the need of tax holiday, as from investors for other FTZs provide this facility. At this time the government does not the need of tax holiday, as other FTZs give tax holiday. However, the government selectively can give tax provide this facility incentive for certain manufacturing that needs promotion. PART 1 -- Page 5 The other important issue related to institution is the relationship between the FTZs authority (BP) with central government. Chairman of the authority is professional, former Chairman of Batam authority in Batam (BIDA). Meanwhile, in other FTZs, the authority chairman are local civil servant. Chairman of Board of FTZs (DK) is governor. This is problematic in developing a good relationship with the central government. There is no clear representation of central government in the FTZ authority, nor at the board. There would be more effective if there is synergy between local and central government in promoting FTZs. The relationship between BP and DK also problematic, as DK tends to intervene in practical issues, instead of just concentrated on strategic issues The relationship between BP and DK also problematic, as DK tends to intervene in practical issues, instead of just concentrated on strategic issues. The relationship between FTZ authorities with local government is also problematic. Local government, whether city/district or provincial tend to take control of any licenses that should be under fully control of the FTZ authority. Under these institutional problems, FTZ authority cannot function optimally, even for FTZ Batam that have been quite long time with the FTZ/bounded zone status. Labor problem The labor issue is related to the trend of polarization in labor movement The labor issue is related to the trend of polarization in labor movement. Demonstration is quite frequent. The main issue is on minimum wage and outsourcing. Actually for FDI in general, they do not have problem with minimum wage, but demonstrations and strikes influence their workers and cost the companies significantly. The local government and security are not able to handle the labor strikes that often out of control. This is certainly discouraged FDI. PART 1 -- Page 6 Infrastructure development Batam needs improvement in infrastructure, especially port, roads, and electricity Batam has adequate infrastructure for the time being, but to be able to compete with other FTZs in the region, Batam needs improvement in infrastructure, especially port, roads, and electricity. Meanwhile, infrastructure in Bintan and Karimun are lag behind. Certainly the capacity to build infrastructure is limited. For this reason infrastructure development in Bintan and Karimun should be more selective. Electricity is the main priority. Then, development or expansion of port. Benchmarking with other FTZs The main competitors are Waigaoqiao in Shanghai China, Penang and Johor Iskandar in Malaysia, and Tan Thuan in Vietnam. BBK has to compete with other FTZs in the region to attract FDI. The main competitors are Waigaoqiao in Shanghai China, Penang and Johor Iskandar in Malaysia, and Tan Thuan in Vietnam. Table 2 shows comparison in characteristics, FDI, and labor. It shows that Batam is losing its competitiveness as shown by FDI. Figure 5 shows incentives for each FTZs. Almost all of FTZs provide tax holiday and various other incentives. Three main industries in focus In this study the focus is on three main industries, namely electrical and electronics, shipyard, oil and gas supporting industries. As a prospective investment especially in Batam, is data storage, networking system and enterprise server. PART 1 -- Page 7 Table 2 Characteristics, FDI and Labor in FTZ China, Malaysia, Vietnam and BBK Indonesia PART 1 -- Page 8 Figure 5: Incentive for FTZ in China, Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia PART 1 -- Page 9 Electrical and electronics industry Electrical and electronics industry has been developed for quite long The labor issue is related to the trend of polarization in labor movement time in Batam. Electrical and electronics is also the main export from Batam. The main electronics export from Batam is PC board, standard components. As global supply chain is changing, electronic products from Batam cannot compete and many products are obsolete. Adding with labor problem, this makes electronic industry in Batam lag behind the global value chain. The existing industry is not willing to transform its competitiveness, while new investors are still not sure to invest in The opportunity for Batam to follow global value chain of electronics is enormous BBK. The opportunity for Batam to follow global value chain of electronics is enormous. Given the value of electronic market in amount of around USD 10. 2 trillion in 2011, Batam can take a lot of benefit in it. Figure 6 shows the value chain of electronic industry. Data processing and telecom are dominating electronic industry. Table 3 shows the strategy for global electronic competition. Table 4 shows main market, production, and leading firm of electronics producers. Table 5 shows five top electronics manufacturers. Figure 7 shows SWOT analysis for electronics industry in Batam. For Batam, and next Bintan, it is important to attract investors in EMS main players to locate here. This would put right a way Batam in the global supply chain. Figure 6: Value Chain of Electronics Industry Table 3 Strategy for Global Electronics Competition PART 1 -- Page 10 Table 4 Main Market, Production and Leading Firm of Electronics Procedures Table 5 Five top Electronics manufacturers PART 1 -- Page 11 The shipyard industry Shipyard industry has been quite developed in Batam. The shipyard industry consists of small and medium sized shipyard that produce mainly tug boat and barge for domestic uses. The high growth of CPO and coal production support the high growth of this type of shipyard in Batam. As commodity export is declining, it impacts the shipyard. PART 1 -- Page 12 Figure 7 SWOT Analysis Electronics Industry in Batam The second type of shipyard is producing a large scale ship that mainly for export market. As wage is increasing and demand for ships has shifted to Asia, many shipyards are relocating to Asia, including Batam for lower cost and close to markets. The nature of shipyard industry is cyclical. For this reason the company should be prepared to deal with cyclicallity. The small and medium companies usually face difficulties in dealing with this cyclicality. Figure 8 shows the global supply chain of shipyard industry. Figure 9 shows the value of shipyard industry in the world around USD 1.9 trillion, while in Indonesia only capture USD 13.5 billion in 2011. Figure 10 shows the SWOT analysis of shipyard in Batam. PART 1 -- Page 13 Figure 8 Global Supply chain of Shipyard Industry Figure 9: the Value of Shipyard Industry PART 1 -- Page 14 Figure 10 SWOT Analysis of Shipyard in Batam The interest of shipyard is to optimize production facilities, capital spending efficiencies, minimizing cost of manufacturing, and to maximize production efficiencies. This interest should be in line with the strength of Batam, and also Karimun, to attract shipyard to locate there. Batam can grow as one of center of shipyard in Asia. As coastal area in Batam is no longer available for new investor in shipyard, Karium can play additional role as destination for shipyard investment. At this time Saipam, an Italian shipyard, has started its activity in Karimun. PART 1 -- Page 15 Oil and gas supporting industry Batam has been known as center for oil and gas supporting industry. Starting from pipe production up to oil platform in deep sea have been produced in Batam. Figure 11 shows the global supply chain of oil and gas supporting industry. Figure 12 shows the value of oil and gas supporting in the world and Indonesia. Figure 11 The Global Supply Chain of Oil-Gas Supporting Industry Figure 12 the Value of Oil-Gas Supporting in the World and Indonesia PART 1 -- Page 16 Data storage and networking system The activity of data storage and networking in Batam is still in the early stage. Practically only BP IT Center that offers data storage services. At this time the IT center provide services for government related institution. Figure 14 shows the global supply chain for data storage and networking. Batam has large potential to develop data storage and networking activity for private as well as public sector. There would be more companies to relocate its data storage in Batam for lower cost, strategic and secure location from major natural disaster. Figure 14 The Global Supply Chain for Data Storage, Networking system and enterprise server PART 1 -- Page 17 Policy recommendations 1. In order to synergize the role of central and local government in development of FTZ and to strengthen the role of FTZ authority, it is important to put central government representative at DK (Board). It is proposed by this study for co-chairmanship of DK, namely governor and line ministers, such as Minister of Industry, so that DK would play important role in bridging FTZ authority with central and local government. Both co-chairman are appointed by the president. Meanwhile, members of DK should be limited to related mayor/head of district and several professionals. 2. Meanwhile, for the authority (BP), the job is for the professional with high qualification not only national, but also international standard. This is very important to be able to put BBK at par with its FTZs competitor. It needs a presidential decree for appointment of Chairman of BP, so that he/she gets high recognition. 3. The cooperation between BP and local government should be improved. Investors are discouraged with too much bureaucracy and red tape. It should be just BP that handles investor at FTZ and one roof policy should be implemented seriously. 4. It is necessary to consider share of revenues between BP and local government, in order to strengthen local government support for the success of FTZs. 5. Labor problem should be tackled seriously. It is the responsibility of the government to handle out of control labor demonstration and strikes that jeopardize the continuation of production. Minimum wage should increase gradually adjusted with the order transition at the company level. Meanwhile, minimum wage should rely on bilateral negotiation between labor union and employer association (APPINDO), not unilaterally by local government that take the pressure from politically motivated labor union. 6. Infrastructure development is needed in BBK. For Batam is port development, and expansion capacity of electricity. For Bintan and Karimun is electricity and port expansion. PART 1 -- Page 18 7. Tax holidat should be provided for selected industries that is important for FTZ development. Electronics, shipyard, and oil-gas supporting industries should eligible for tax holiday. This would put BBK at par with FTZs competitor. 8. Batam has strong position to transform its electrical and electronics industry and integrate into global value chain. In order to do so, it is important to improve environment for investors to come especially the top ESM (Electronics Services Manufacturing) that would like to relocate its production to Batam. 9. Batam can be a center for shipyard in the region. The development of shipyard industry should also be integrated to global value chain of shipyard industry. 10. Batam role in oil and gas supporting industry can be increased by not only maintaining the existing industry, but also in attracting investment in higher content of technology in the industry and integrate into the global value chain. 11. Karimun can develop as location for shipyard industry along with Batam. As coastal area for shipyard in Batam is limited, so Karimun can provide the location for the industry. 12. FTZ Bintan can develop as location for electrical and electronics industry along with Batam. 13. Batam can open up for development of storage and network services. This is new venture, but Batam has high potential for this to take advantage relocation of data storage services. 14. There is a need for continuation and intensification of joint promotion between Singapore and Indonesia to promote BBK as the location for electrical and electronics industry, shipyard, oil and gas supporting industry, and data base and networking services. 15. There is a need for training of skilled workers that improve productivity in BBK. PART 1 -- Page 19 Roadmap of development of electronics industry in Batam and Bintan PART 1 -- Page 20 Roadmap for shipyard industry in Batam and Karimun Roadmap for oil and gas supporting industry in Batam PART 1 -- Page 21 Roadmap for data storage, and network system in Batam PART 1 -- Page 22 PART 2: COMPETITIVENESS ANALYSIS FOR KEPULAULAN RIAU VIS-À-VIS 33 INDONESIAN PROVINCES AND INTEGRATED APPROACH TO REVITALIZATION AND UPGRADING OF MANUFACTURING COMPETITIVENESS OF BATAM, BINTAN & KARIMUN SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES (BBK SEZs) WITH INDUSTRY-SPECIFIC FOCUS ON ENTERPRISE SERVERS, STORAGE & NETWORKING SYSTEM (ESSNS), CONSUMERS ELECTRONICS COMPONENTS (CEEC) EQUIPMENT FOR OIL & ELECTRICAL SHIPBUILDING, AND GAS SUPPORT DRILLING (SOG) CLUSTERS BY: DR TAN KHEE GIAP & DR TAN KONG YAM CO-DIRECTORS, ASIA COMPETITIVENESS INSTITUTE LEE KUAN YEW SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY, NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE *A paper commissioned by Economic Development Board (EDB), Singapore and the first draft was also presentation at the Seminar on “Relative Competitiveness and Revitalization of BBK in the Context of Regional and Global Perspective”, Bintan, Indonesia, 18 October 2012. POLICY PAPER OUTLINES: PART I: INTRODUCTORY BACKGROUND: RISE AND FALL OF ECONOMIC CENTERS AND PERIPHERIES IN ASIA, THE FLYING GEESE THEORY OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT INDONESIA & RIAU ISLANDS AND IMPLICATIONS INCLUDING BATAM, TO BINTAN KARIMUN SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES (BBK SEZs) PART II: RELEVANT LESSONS FOR INDONESIA AND BBK SEZs ON INDUSTRIAL UPGRADING: THE SINGAPORE EXPERIENCE PART III: A PIONEERING EMPIRICAL STUDY ON RELATIVE COMPETITIVENESS OF RIAU ISLANDS VIS-A-VIS 33 INDONESIA PROVINCES, 2012 BY ASIA COMPETITIVENESS INSTITUTE (ACI) PART IV: INDUSTRIAL UPGRADING MODELS AND ANALYSIS ON REVITALIZING BBK SEZs WITH INDUSTRY-SPECIFIC FOCUS ON ENTERPRISE SERVERS, STORAGE & NETWORKING SYSTEM (ESSNS), CONSUMERS ELECTRONICS & ELECTRICAL COMPONENTS (CEEC) AND SHIPBUILDING, SUPPORT EQUIPMENT FOR OIL & GAS DRILLING (SOG) CLUSTERS. PART V: FIVE CORE SUGGESTIONS FOR INTEGRATED INDUSTRIAL UPGRADING AND REVITALIZING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FOR BBK SEZs, PERTINENT ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED AND PROPOSED URGENT REFORMS REQUIRED. APPENDIX: COMPARATIVE EVALUATION ON RELATIVE COMPETITIVENESS OF REGIONAL SPECIAL ECONOMIC / INDUSTRIAL ZONES: A SWOT ANALYSIS AND ROLE OF THE GOVERNMENT PART 2 -- Page 1 COMPETITIVENESS ANALYSIS FOR KEPULAULAN RIAU VIS-À-VIS 33 INDONESIAN PROVINCES AND INTEGRATED APPROACH TO REVITALIZATION AND ECONOMIC UPGRADING OF MANUFACTURING COMPETIVENESS OF BATAM, BINTAN & KARIMUN SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES (BBK SEZs) WITH INDUSTRY-SPECIFIC FOCUS ON ENTERPRISE SERVERS, STORAGE & NETWORKING SYSTEM (ESSNS), CONSUMERS ELECTRONICS & ELECTRICAL COMPONENTS (CEEC) SHIPBUILDING, SUPPORT EQUIPMENT FOR OIL AND GAS DRILLING (SOG) CLUSTERS PART I: INTRODUCTORY BACKGROUND: RISE AND FALL OF ECONOMIC CENTERS AND PERIPHERIES IN ASIA, THE FLYING GEESE THEORY OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT INDONESIA & RIAU ISLANDS AND IMPLICATIONS INCLUDING BATAM, TO BINTAN KARIMUN SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES (BBK SEZS) China and India have been the traditional economic centres which have prevailed through their rise and fall over centuries. China and India, as one of the world’s leading economic centres, declined rapidly since 1820 and 1700 respectively. Their economic decline coincided with the rapid rise of Europe which peaked in 1913 and thereafter declining steadily since, followed by USA which plateaued around 1995-2003. China as a re-emerging economic centre picked up growth momentum since the economic reforms in the late 1970s and accelerated in pace after her accession into the World Trade Organisation in 2002, pioneered by coastal provinces such as Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Since 1990s, India too has regaining her growth momentum albeit gradually including states such as Maharashtra, Delhi and Tamil Nadu (see Table 1). The Japanese economy, as an outer periphery in Asia, had experienced rapid economic recovery since 1960s, peaked in early 1990s and remained stagnated since. In early 1980s, East Asia Newly industrialized economies (NIEs) including Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, as inner peripheries, went through rapid rise and maintaining still their competitiveness. ASEAN economies including Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia also experienced unprecedented economic expansion since 1980s, which was disrupted by the 1997 Asian financial crisis. With China and India re-emerging as Asia’s economic power houses, concrete economic recovery in these economies are insight especially for Indonesia which has recovered in full by 2005, which PART 2 -- Page 2 has the potential to be the seventh biggest world economy by 2030 given her consistent and nearly a decade long 6% economic growth per annum. Under the flying-geese theory (FGT) of economic development, there exists a narrow window of opportunity for ASEAN and Indonesia in particular, albeit a brief period of 5 to 10 years in our assessment. Such golden opportunity arises from potential rreshuffling of production centers due to rising wages in coastal provinces, higher land costs and political dynamics between China and Japan currently taking place in factory of the world-China. FGT refers to developed countries or economies through various approaches of global trading effort and international investment channels to shift their manufacturing and labor intensive industries to developing economies so as to achieve industrial sector restructuring and technological upgrading. Table 1: Relative Shares of Global Gross Domestic Product^ for Major Economies (^Using PPP with the world as 100; *Estimated by Asian Macroeconomics Modeling Unit at Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore; Source: Maddison 2007) 1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1870 1913 1950 1978 1995 2003 2015* China 25.4 22.1 24.9 29.0 22.3 32.9 17.1 8.8 4.6 5.0 10.9 15.1 23.1 India 32.0 28.1 24.4 22.4 24.4 16.0 12.1 7.5 4.2 3.4 4.6 5.5 7.2 Japan 1.1 2.7 3.1 2.9 4.1 3.0 2.3 2.6 3.0 7.7 8.4 6.6 6.0 58.5 52.9 52.4 54.3 50.8 51.9 31.5 18.9 11.8 16.1 23.9 27.2 36.3 Europe 13.7 9.1 11.8 19.8 21.9 23.0 33.1 33.0 26.2 27.9 23.8 19.2 15.4 USA 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.8 8.9 18.9 27.3 21.8 20.9 20.6 18.5 Russia 1.5 2.4 3.4 3.4 4.4 5.4 7.5 8.5 9.6 9.2 2.2 3.8 5.2 Since the 1950s, USA shifted its steel production, textiles and traditional industries to Germany and Japan so as to concentrate on development of semiconductor industry, communication, electronic computers and other new technology intensive industries. Between 1960s and 1980s, Japan and Germany shifted their relatively lower value-added labor intensive and resource intensive industries to newly industrialized economies of East Asia including Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore. Japan and Germany then concentrated on precision engineering, chemical refinery, household appliances, automobiles and other higher value-added technology intensive industries. PART 2 -- Page 3 In the 1990’s, Americans, Europeans, Japanese and NIEs subsequently shifted their no longer competitive industries to coastal provinces of China and ASEAN including Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. Post-2000, FGT is currently taking place within the Mainland China where the government is initiating policies to revitalize North-Eastern traditional industrial base, develop further western and central regions of China by encouraging shifting those industries which are high cost, labor and energy intensive industries and environmental unfriendly production processes to be reorganized and relocated to less developed regions. Since 2010, given the rapid rising cost of production in coastal provinces of China, and the recent rising tension between China and Japan, there is a new wave of manufacturing relocations from China to ASEAN. In terms of Indonesia’s medium-term economic development objectives and positioning, her potential of being a rising economic middle power by 2030 cannot be overlooked. Currently Indonesia is in between the production-driven and investment-driven phase of economic development. The share of services sector would increase in due cause with well calibrated strategies and policy implementation. On average, Indonesia would achieve about 6.125% of GDP growth per annum for the next four decades, 2010-2050. Under an optimistic scenario and some assumptions, ACI at LKYSP forecasts the medium-term growth path of Indonesia as follows: 2010 – 2015 6.5% 2016 – 2025 6.5% 2026 – 2035 6.0% 2036 – 2050 5.5% On average, Indonesia would achieve about 6.125% of GDP growth per annum for the next four decades, 2010-2050. Given the latest wave of manufacturing relocations from China in particular by the Japanese and Taiwanese manufacturers to ASEAN, we estimated the narrow window of opportunity for Indonesia and BBK in particular is about five years. PART 2 -- Page 4 PART II: RELEVANT LESSONS FOR INDONESIA AND BBK SEZS ON INDUSTRIAL UPGRADING: THE SINGAPORE EXPERIENCE The Singapore experience in industrial upgrading, manpower development and education policies Singapore went through three basic stages of Industrial upgrading and stages of economic development as follows: (i) Factor of production-driven stage (us$300-1,000): Comparative advantage in labor cost, rich natural resources availability and labor intensive production( garments, toys, shoes and bags). (ii) Investment-driven stage (us$1,000-10,000): Comparative advantage in capital investment, economy of scale and capital intensive production (Steel production, petro-chemical, electronics and automobiles). (iii) Innovation-driven stage (us$10,000-40,000): Ideas, invention, creative innovation and new products and services( Financial, entertainment, product development , life sciences and branding) As Singapore moved up the technological ladder into high value added manufacturing activities, wages tend to rise correspondingly as international competition intensifies (see Chart 1). At the Innovation - driven stage, as exhibited in the “value-added smiling curve”, up-stream activities involving new product, innovation and product development and down-stream activities involving branding, advertising and marketing tend to be remunerated better hence with higher profit margins. Mid-stream activities which are associating with production of parts and assembly tend to have the lowest profit margin (see Chart 2). As it is evident in the “Made-inChina” retail pricing structure of a personal computer, ratio of retail pricing to production cost tend to be higher for manufacturers who produced CPU, Monitor and Main Board, and agents involving in marketing activities (see Table 2). Industrial upgrading must be simultaneously planned with investment in technical education of higher learning. Over the period from 1975 to 1985, Ministry of Education took charge of the expansion of polytechnics education and the development of advanced technicians and engineering manpower. There was an urgency to train a critical mass of mid-level workers with practical skills for business and industry. Collaboration in training program of Economic PART 2 -- Page 5 Development Board with MNCs such as Philips, ABB and Seiko were forged. National industrial training institutes of French, Japan and German origin were set up. Significant effort by the government was to focus on promoting industrially relevant manpower development Chart 1: Technological Upgrading in Various Stages of Economic Development Chart 2: Value-added Smiling Curve: Profit Margins versus Operating Processes PART 2 -- Page 6 Table 2: “Made in China” retail pricing structure of a personal computer Product CPU Monitor Main Board Hard disk Storage CD Rom Video Card Sound card LAN Card Marketing margin Others Total Manufacturer Manufactured Location Intel GIGA AOC Quantum KINGMAX SAMSUNG CREATIVE CREATIVE 3COM ----- USA Taiwan Taiwan USA Taiwan South Korea Singapore Singapore USA ----- Ratio of retail pricing to production cost (%) 10 8 10 6 5 5 5 4 1 10 --------- --------- 37 100 In terms of manpower development policy, Singapore set up Skilled Development Fund (SDF) in 1979. Skill upgrading is paramount to support industrial upgrading and addressing structural unemployment. Levy of 1% of employees’ remunerations were imposed on lower skilled workers. Cost sharing models was proposed and the nature of training was determined by employer-based skills upgrading. Advisory committee comprising of private industry, union and government were formed. A total of 8 million training places were created amounting to $1.6 billion in expenses to help facilitate technological restructurings and promote lifelong learning. The government took advantage of higher land prices during the phase of rapid economic development. Land appreciation gain leads to budgetary surpluses which were used by the government to finance education, manpower development, talent attraction, public servants pay increases. However, Singapore learnt a hard and expensive lesson in 1986 when the economy went into a severe recession caused by artificial lump sum positive wage adjustments for public sector in the early 1980s) which snowed ball to private sector too, coupled with exchange rate appreciation and other cost increases. The painful lesson learnt is that pace of industrial upgrading should be in line with ability of enterprises to adjust. PART 2 -- Page 7 PART III: A PIONEERING EMPIRICAL STUDY ON RELATIVE COMPETITIVENESS OF RIAU ISLANDS VIS-A-VIS 33 INDONESIA PROVINCES, 2012 BY ASIA COMPETITIVENESS INSTITUTE (ACI) Background Information: Governor: Drs. H. Muhammad Sani (Since August 2010) Capital: Tanjung Pinang Land Area: 8,201.72 square kilometres Population: 1,679,163 (2010) Map of Province Source: http://www.bakosurtanal.go.id/bakosurtanal/peta-provinsi/ PART 2 -- Page 8 Abbreviations ACI ASEAN BIFZA BBK GDP GRDP HDI HRD ICT MP3EI MRO MW PELINDO PERTAMINA PLTA RPJM SEZ SWOT RESPEK Asia Competitiveness Institute Association of Southeast Asian Nations Batam Indonesia Free Zone Authority (also known as Badan Pengusahaan (BP) Batam Batam-Bintan-Karimun (usually with reference to the BBK Special Economic Zone) Gross Domestic Product Regional Gross Domestic Product (‘Regional’ refers to province. Figure is based on constant price of year 2000, unless otherwise noted) Human Development Index Human Resources Development Information and Communications Technology Masterplan Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia (Master Plan for the Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesian Economic Growth) Maintenance, Repair, Overhaul Mega Watts PT PELabuhan INDOnesia (Port of Indonesia Ltd.) Perusahaan Pertambangan Minyak dan Gas Bumi Negara (the state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Mining Company) Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Air (Hydroelectric Power Generator) Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah (Medium Term Development Plan) Special Economic Zone Strength Weakness Opportunity Threat Rencana Strategis Pengembangan Kampung (Village Strategic Development Plan – a block grant programme from the Papua province government to villages in Papua) PART 2 -- Page 9 Abstract This working paper explores the challenges and responses of the province of Kepulauan Riau in economic development as Indonesia1 joins other emerging economies and assuming its rightful competitive place in ASEAN10. In Section 1, an introduction and background to the province including major economic sectors and infrastructure are presented. Section 2 assesses relative competitiveness with analyses of median and maximum competitiveness and strength-weaknessopportunity-threat (SWOT). In Section 3, the policy themes from official policy of the province, a simulation what-if competitiveness analysis and development strategies are deliberated. Finally, Section 4 concludes this policy brief. SECTION 1: INTRODUCTORY NOTES AND BACKGROUND 1.1 Background and introduction Kepulauan Riau (Riau Islands or Riau Archipelago) was established as a province in 2004 by way of separation from Riau province. It has an area of 252,601 square kilometres, which is mostly (96%) made up of water. The remaining 4% of the province’s area is made up of more than 2,400 islands, 30% of which are unnamed and uninhabited. The archipelago stretches from southern tip of Malacca Strait, just 30 kilometres south of Singapore, to the southern parts of South China Sea, in between mainland and Borneo Malaysia. The province borders Malaysia, Singapore, and Riau to its west, Bangka Belitung and Jambi to its south, Malaysia, Brunei Darussalam, and Kalimantan Barat to its east, and Vietnam and Cambodia to its north. Kepulauan Riau is made up of five rural regencies and two urban municipalities (cities). The two cities are Batam and Tanjung Pinang (the province’s capital, located on Bintan island). Five rural regencies are Bintan, Karimun, Natuna, Anambas, and Lingga. Population is 1,679,163 as per Census 2010. More than half of population live in Batam, and many of them are migrants from other parts of Indonesia, looking for economic opportunities in the island. 1 Collating and drawing from Asia Competitiveness Institute’s intensive and detailed ACI Working Papers on each 33 provinces, an overall paper on Indonesia is prepared as for each ASEAN economies as well. PART 2 -- Page 10 Three most notable islands in Kepulauan Riau are arguably Batam, Bintan and Karimun, which are just a 45-minutes ferry ride towards the south of Singapore. The stretch of water between Singapore and these three groups of islands forms the southern gate of Malacca Strait, one of the world’s busiest shipping routes. Another notable part of Kepulauan Riau is the Natuna Islands, located on the far northern part of the province on the South China Sea. The Natuna Islands are blessed with natural gas fields, currently operated by, among others, Conoco and Premier Oil. The Natuna Islands are connected to Singapore via a 650-kilometre sub-sea gas pipeline which carries gas from the former to the latter. Batam was first developed in the 1970s as logistics centre for Indonesia’s national petroleum company, Pertamina. Since then, it has been managed as bonded zone and subsequently an industrial zone by an authority directly under the national government. The Batam model of industrial development was decided to be expanded to other areas in Kapulauan Riau. In 2006, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Singapore and Indonesia established major areas of Batam, Bintan and Karimun (BBK) as a Special Economic Zone (SEZ). This was then strengthened by Indonesia Law no. 44/2007, which gives incentives for trade between BBK SEZ and Singapore. Such incentives are elimination of import and export duties, as well as value-added and luxury taxes. The law also stipulates fast customs processing, onestop service to process licenses, friendly immigration and labour policies, and flexibility of acquiring property for foreigners. Level of development in different parts of BBK SEZ is varied. Batam is arguably the most advanced in terms of infrastructure and investments, while others are trying to catch up. Institutional issues in the development of BBK SEZ have also been highlighted. These include some overlapping authority between the central, provincial, and local governments, as well as central government commitment to invest in developing or improving major infrastructures such as airports and seaports. Table 1 shows Kepulauan Riau as a province at a glance. Indicators include area, gross regional domestic products (GRDP), population, GRDP per Capita, resources, human resources development (HRD) and poverty rate. PART 2 -- Page 11 Table 1. Kepulauan Riau Province: Basic economic indicators 2010 1,679,163 82.83 A. Population Total Population % urban 2010 8201.72 0.43 B. Area Square kilometres % equivalent to country 2005 2010 Rupiah (million) 30,381,500 41,083,259 Rupiah (million) without oil & gas 28,559,848 39,357,160 Rupiah (million) without oil & gas & mineral 28,278,739 38,975,007 2005 15.27 50.40 34.33 2010 13.09 54.69 32.22 F. GRDP per capita: Rupiah (million) Rupiah (million) without oil & gas Rupiah (million) without oil & gas & mineral 2005 23.76 22.33 22.11 2010 24.47 23.44 23.21 G. Poverty Rate % population 2005 10.97 2010 8.05 C. GRDP: D. Economic composition, as % GRDP Primary sector Secondary sector Tertiary sector E. Primary products Manufacturing and Processing, Cassava, and Corn 2005 H. Human Development Index 72.20 Index 7 Ranking GRDP in Year 2000 Constant Price Source: Statistics Indonesia and Interview Note (for part E) 2010 75.07 6 PART 2 -- Page 12 1.2 Major sectors/activities Province Name Primary Secondary Tertiary Major Sector Activities Oil and Gas, Tin, Granite, Fisheries, Rubber Manufacturing industries Tourism, Trade, building and construction Kepulauan Riau’s primary sector contributes about 13% to the province’s GRDP in 2010. This is a relatively small number compared to Indonesia’s natural resource-rich provinces. Most of the primary sector’s contribution is generated from oil and gas fields in Natuna regency in the South China Sea. Building materials such as granite and sand also contribute to some of its exports. There is much potential to develop the fisheries sector in the province, but it is of relatively small contribution at the moment. The province’s secondary sector is much more pronounced. Contributing around 60% of the province’s GRDP in 2010, Kepulauan Riau — especially Batam — has long been recognised as Indonesia’s main manufacturing centre. Batam has over 6,000 hectares of land accommodating 26 industrial parks, with more than US$13 billion investment is operated by about 900 foreign companies. Some of the industrial parks are operated by Singaporean companies. Investment from Singapore tops the list of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Batam. Bintan also has manufacturing activities, with 4,000 hectares of land allocated for industries. However, in Bintan, more emphasis is placed on tourism by allocating about 23,000 hectares. Large tracts of land have also been allocated for industries in Karimum, but they are arguably less developed than in Bintan and Batam. One of the most advanced industries in Karimun is shipbuilding, with investments from Saipem and Sembawang, among others. Kepulauan Riau is also quite known for its tourism industry. Bintan leads this sector with its resort areas. Batam, as well as Karimun to a certain extent, also receives considerable number of tourists, mostly from Singapore and Malaysia. Real estate is also a growing sector in Batam and Bintan. With further economic growth in the province, trade and services are also expected to grow. PART 2 -- Page 13 1.3 Infrastructure Infrastructure in Kepulauan Riau is quite established by Indonesia’s standard, considering Batam’s long experience as bonded industrial zone. However, the province still needs to catch up to reach international standard, especially if it wants to achieve success for the BBK SEZ. The province’s seaports and airports are already struggling to serve with the economic growth of the Batam, Bintan and Karimun. Inadequacy of container seaports is a common problem. If this situation persists, accommodating future growth plans will be even harder considering these current challenges. The province has only one international airport at Batam. This makes travelling to different parts of the SEZ difficult as one has to fly to Batam and then take the ferry to the other islands from Batam. Construction of another international airport in Lagoi, Bintan Island, has just started in mid-2012. Karimun, on the other hand, is still waiting for central government’s support to build its international airport. Currently, its 900-metre runway is enough only to accommodate small plans. The plan is to extend the runway to 1,500 metres by the end of 2013. In sea transportation, Batam has four international ferry terminals and three cargo terminals, Bintan has three international ferry terminals and two cargo terminals, while Karimun has two international ferry terminals and two cargo terminals. Compared to Batam and Bintan, the seaports of Karimun are still underdeveloped. Similar capacity-building is envisaged for Karimun’s seaport (currently only 17 metres deep versus 35 metres needed). So far, since support from central government has been limited. Karimun has been largely using its own budget for infrastructural projects such as new roads. Overall, leadership of the regency laments several obstacles in attracting more FDI, such as unreliable electricity supply, and lack of international airport as well as deep-sea ports. Deficient electricity is also claimed by some businesses in Batam as hampering their operations. PART 2 -- Page 14 SECTION 2: RELATIVE COMPETITIVENESS OF PROVINCES In the following set of tables below, the relative ranking of 33 provinces comprises ranking by overall competitiveness and by four environments, each with their three sub-components, as per Asia Competitiveness Institute (ACI) methodology: 1) Overall Competitiveness 2) Macroeconomic Stability i) Regional Economic Vibrancy ii) Openness to Trade and Services iii) Attractiveness To Foreign Investors 3) Government and Institutional Setting i) Government Policies and Fiscal Sustainability ii) Institutions, Governance and Leadership iii) Competition, Regulatory Standards and Rule of Law 4) Financial, Businesses and Manpower conditions i) Financial Deepening and Business Efficiency ii) Labour Market Flexibility iii) Productivity Performance 5) Quality of Life and Infrastructure Development i) Physical Infrastructure ii) Technological Infrastructure iii) Standard of Living, Education and Social Stability To produce the 2010 Indonesian Provincial Competitiveness Index, ACI analysed 91 different indicators.2 These indicators are measured in different units. For example, GRDP is measured in millions of rupiah, while population is measured in number of people. To aggregate these different indicators into a coherent index, ACI converted the actual indicator values for each province into a "standardised score". The standardised score measures how well a particular province performs in comparison to the average-performing province. A standardised score of zero means that a province has exactly the average score, in comparison to 33 Indonesian provinces. A negative standardised score means 2 For the Indonesian provincial level analysis, ACI used a total of 91 indicators, whereas in the national paper on Indonesia as with the rest of ASEAN states, with more data available, a total of 128 indicators are used. PART 2 -- Page 15 that the province performs below average, while a positive score indicates above-average performance. The farther away the score is from zero, the farther it is from the average. Thus, a larger negative number signifies lesser competitiveness, while a larger positive number is reflective of higher competitiveness. The standardised scores of indicators are averaged into an aggregate score for 12 subcomponents. The scores of the sub-components are then averaged to form an aggregate score for four environments. Finally, the score (index) for Overall Competitiveness is derived by averaging the standardised scores of the four environments. PART 2 -- Page 16 2.1 Competitiveness Ranking of 33 Indonesian Provinces – Rank and Score by Environment (Year 2010) Table 2: Overall Competitiveness Ranking Rank Province Score 1 DKI Jakarta 1.7576 2 Jawa Timur 0.6644 3 Kalimantan Timur 0.5523 4 Jawa Barat 0.5113 5 Jawa Tengah 0.4282 6 DI Yogyakarta 0.2757 7 Banten 0.2343 8 Kepulauan Riau 0.1708 9 Bali 0.1371 10 Riau 0.1152 11 Sulawesi Selatan 0.0993 12 Sumatera Selatan 0.0816 13 Kalimantan Selatan 0.0146 14 Sulawesi Utara -0.0259 15 Gorontalo -0.1130 16 Aceh -0.1444 17 Sumatera Barat -0.1559 18 Sulawesi Tenggara -0.1655 19 Sumatera Utara -0.1683 20 Lampung -0.1956 21 Sulawesi Barat -0.2062 22 Kalimantan Barat -0.2273 23 Sulawesi Tengah -0.2311 24 Papua -0.2378 25 Jambi -0.2506 26 Kalimantan Tengah -0.2681 27 Bengkulu -0.2735 28 Nusa Tenggara Barat -0.2969 Kepulauan Bangka 29 Belitung -0.3085 30 Papua Barat -0.3179 31 Maluku -0.3438 32 Maluku Utara -0.5107 Nusa Tenggara 33 Timur -0.6014 Table 2 for Overall Competitiveness, Kepulauan Riau is ranked at the 8th position, meaning that it can be considered as part of provinces within the “high competitiveness” group. The province performs slightly better than Bali, but below Banten. These three provinces, in fact, obtained standardised scores which are not far off from each other (between 0.2343 and 0.1371). Kepulauan Riau is healthily ahead of other Sumatran provinces. Its closest neighbour and also parent province, Riau, stands two ranks below at 10th place with a standardised score gap of 0.0556 points. Kepulauan Riau’s Overall Competitiveness is influenced by its four environments. In three of the environments, Kepulauan Riau maintains its rank in top third of 33 provinces. Most outstanding contrast, however is the province’s attainment for Government and Institutional Setting where it rests at the bottom third of the table of 33 province. PART 2 -- Page 17 Table 3: Macroeconomic Stability Ranking Rank Province 1 DKI Jakarta 2 Jawa Timur 3 Jawa Barat 4 Kalimantan Timur 5 Kepulauan Riau 6 Jawa Tengah 7 Banten 8 Bali 9 Riau 10 Sumatera Utara 11 Papua 12 Kalimantan Selatan Kepulauan Bangka 13 Belitung 14 Jambi 15 Sulawesi Selatan 16 Sumatera Selatan 17 Lampung 18 DI Yogyakarta 19 Papua Barat 20 Sulawesi Utara 21 Kalimantan Tengah 22 Nusa Tenggara Barat 23 Maluku 24 Kalimantan Barat 25 Sumatera Barat 26 Maluku Utara 27 Gorontalo 28 Sulawesi Barat 29 Nusa Tenggara Timur 30 Bengkulu 31 Sulawesi Tenggara 32 Sulawesi Tengah 33 Aceh Score 3.2084 0.9111 0.9083 0.6212 0.3875 0.2862 0.2649 0.1384 0.1354 0.0246 -0.1051 -0.1147 -0.1313 -0.1688 -0.1794 -0.1842 -0.1864 -0.2399 -0.2511 -0.2518 -0.2701 -0.3000 -0.3003 -0.3531 -0.3733 -0.3765 -0.3925 -0.3981 -0.4298 -0.4402 -0.4602 -0.4770 -0.5025 In Table 3 for Macroeconomic Stability environment, Kepulauan Riau is ranked fifth. However, looking at the standardised scores, for Kepulauan Riau to catch up, a wide gap is visible between the province’s score and that of Kalimantan Timur which is placed fourth. At the same time, the province edges only slightly ahead of Jawa Tengah at sixth place. Nevertheless, the archipelago may be seen to be most stable in the Sumatra Economic Corridor. It is four ranks ahead of Riau, the next highest placing province within the corridor. PART 2 -- Page 18 Table 4: Government and Institutional Setting Ranking Rank Province Score 1 DKI Jakarta 1.1541 2 Jawa Timur 0.6534 3 Jawa Tengah 0.6016 4 DI Yogyakarta 0.5193 5 Banten 0.5031 6 Sumatera Selatan 0.4398 7 Sulawesi Selatan 0.4371 8 Gorontalo 0.4271 9 Jawa Barat 0.3625 10 Sulawesi Utara 0.2574 11 Kalimantan Selatan 0.2435 12 Sulawesi Barat 0.2303 13 Aceh 0.1396 14 Sulawesi Tengah 0.0478 15 Sulawesi Tenggara 0.0181 16 Bali 0.0061 17 Kalimantan Timur -0.0068 18 Kalimantan Barat -0.0738 19 Nusa Tenggara Barat -0.1249 20 Bengkulu -0.1314 21 Lampung -0.2175 22 Papua -0.2407 23 Sumatera Barat -0.2452 24 Kalimantan Tengah -0.3433 25 Jambi -0.3454 Kepulauan Bangka 26 Belitung -0.3558 27 Riau -0.4048 28 Papua Barat -0.4414 29 Kepulauan Riau -0.4536 30 Sumatera Utara -0.5447 31 Maluku Utara -0.6653 32 Nusa Tenggara Timur -0.6917 33 Maluku -0.7544 In Table 4, in contrast to other environments where the province ranks in top one-third of 33 provinces, Government and Institutional Setting environment, Kepulauan Riau as a province is ranked 29th, quite some distance down among 33 provinces. Comparing against provinces within Sumatra Economic Corridor, only Sumatra Utara is ranked lower than Kepulauan Riau. PART 2 -- Page 19 Table 5: Financial, Businesses and Manpower Conditions Ranking Rank Province Score 1 DKI Jakarta 1.3993 2 Kalimantan Timur 0.9566 3 Jawa Timur 0.8620 4 Jawa Tengah 0.7087 5 Jawa Barat 0.6432 6 Riau 0.5555 7 Papua 0.1643 8 Sumatera Selatan 0.1235 9 Kepulauan Riau 0.0540 10 Lampung -0.0323 11 Maluku -0.0495 12 Sulawesi Selatan -0.0645 13 Bali -0.0778 14 Kalimantan Barat -0.1052 15 Sumatera Barat -0.1208 16 Sulawesi Tenggara -0.1267 17 Papua Barat -0.1465 18 DI Yogyakarta -0.1720 19 Sulawesi Barat -0.1739 20 Gorontalo -0.1797 21 Sumatera Utara -0.1806 22 Banten -0.1838 23 Aceh -0.2005 24 Sulawesi Tengah -0.2495 25 Kalimantan Tengah -0.2868 26 Bengkulu -0.2906 27 Kalimantan Selatan -0.2954 28 Nusa Tenggara Barat -0.3086 29 Jambi -0.3297 30 Sulawesi Utara -0.3552 31 Maluku Utara -0.4830 Kepulauan Bangka 32 Belitung -0.5167 33 Nusa Tenggara Timur -0.5380 Table 5 for Financial, Businesses and Manpower Conditions, in contrast to the government sector, Kepulauan Riau as a province is ranked ninth. This is an indication of a strong private sector leading competitiveness drive of the province. However, a closer observation on the scores shows a fairly large gap between Kepulauan Riau with Sumatera Selatan, another province within the Sumatera Economic Corridor, which is ranked a notch higher. This would group Kepulauan Riau (0.0540) within the same band as another neighbouring province, Lampung (0.0323) and maybe even, Maluku (0.0495). However, among archipelagic provinces (Bali, Kepulauan Bangka Belitung, Kepulauan Riau, Maluku, Maluku Utara, Nusa Tenggara Timur & Nusa Tenggara Barat), Kepulauan Riau takes the lead indicating astrong confidence and viability by the private sector. PART 2 -- Page 20 Table 6: Quality of Life and Infrastructure Development Ranking Rank Province Score 1 DKI Jakarta 1.2684 2 DI Yogyakarta 0.9952 3 Kepulauan Riau 0.6953 4 Kalimantan Timur 0.6381 5 Bali 0.4818 6 Banten 0.3528 7 Sulawesi Utara 0.2462 8 Jawa Timur 0.2310 9 Kalimantan Selatan 0.2249 10 Sulawesi Selatan 0.2038 11 Riau 0.1749 12 Jawa Barat 0.1311 13 Jawa Tengah 0.1161 14 Sumatera Barat 0.1156 15 Sumatera Utara 0.0276 16 Aceh -0.0142 17 Sumatera Selatan -0.0526 18 Sulawesi Tenggara -0.0932 19 Jambi -0.1584 20 Kalimantan Tengah -0.1723 Kepulauan Bangka 21 Belitung -0.2303 22 Bengkulu -0.2318 23 Sulawesi Tengah -0.2455 24 Maluku -0.2710 25 Gorontalo -0.3070 26 Lampung -0.3463 27 Kalimantan Barat -0.3769 28 Papua Barat -0.4327 29 Nusa Tenggara Barat -0.4543 30 Sulawesi Barat -0.4830 31 Maluku Utara -0.5181 32 Nusa Tenggara Timur -0.7460 33 Papua -0.7695 In Table 6 for Quality of Life and Infrastructure Development, Kepulauan Riau as a province is ranked third, just after DI Yogyakarta at second place and DKI Jakarta at first place. This is no mean feat. While any attempt to push further the attainment in this environment may not place the province higher up the ranks, it will definitely strengthen its competitive position as an attractive draw for its residents to stay and take advantage of the many presenting opportunities. This is especially important considering that Kalimantan Timur only slips narrowly in fourth placing behind Kepulauan Riau. Being in close proximity to Singapore and Johor Bahru, Malaysia, the province has done well to level up with the more established provinces in first and second placing. PART 2 -- Page 21 2.2 Analyses of Median and Maximum Competitiveness Webs So as to better understand Kepulauan Riau’s relative strengths and weaknesses, it is useful to compare and contrast the province’s attainment against the median and the maximum scores of Indonesia’s 33 provinces for the 12 sub-environments that make up the four environments above. The median competitiveness web plots Kepulauan Riau’s attained scores for each of the 12 sub-environments. Figure 1: Median Competitiveness Web Analysis: Kepulauan Riau Regional Economic Vibrancy Standard of Living, Education and Social… Technological Infrastructure Physical Infrastructure 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 Openness To Trade and Services Attractiveness To Foreign Investors Government Policies and Fiscal Sustainability Institutions, Governance and Leadership Productivity Performance Competition, Regulatory Standards and Rule of Laws Financial Deepening and Business Efficiency Labour Market Flexibility Median Kepulauan Riau In the Median Competitiveness Web chart (Figure 1), the median scores for 33 Indonesian provinces are shown in the red line, while the score for Kepulauan Riau is shown in the green line. Kepulauan Riau’s Overall Competitiveness ranking places it at eighth within the top third of 33 provinces. Within the Sumatra Economic Corridor under the national economic masterplan (MP3EI), Kepulauan Riau takes the lead. Indeed, Kepulauan Riau performs relatively well in all four environments except for Government and Institutional Setting environment where Kepulauan Riau resides at the opposite end of the table. PART 2 -- Page 22 From Figure 1 comparing Kepulauan Riau’s attainment in green and the median scores for each of the 12 sub-environments in red, the province has a fairly strong outward preparedness with a strong Productivity Performance, Technological Infrastructure, Standard of Living, Education and Social as well as Openness to Trade and Services. However, a general outlook of preparedness and readiness has to be complemented with an ease of access to services necessary to sweeten the investment climate. Faring rather poorly for sub-environments in the bottom right quadrant of Figure 1 reveal implement the need for the provincial government to necessary strategies and policies to improve its performance to effectively compete within Indonesia and ASEAN as well. Figure 2: Maximum Competitiveness Web Analysis for Kepulauan Riau Regional Economic Vibrancy Standard of Living, Education and Social… Technological Infrastructure Physical Infrastructure 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 Openness To Trade and Services Attractiveness To Foreign Investors Government Policies and Fiscal Sustainability Institutions, Governance and Leadership Productivity Performance Competition, Regulatory Standards and Rule of Laws Financial Deepening and Business Efficiency Labour Market Flexibility Max Kepulauan Riau The Maximum Competitiveness Web chart (Figure 2) shows how far are the best scores for each sub-environment in relation to a province’s scores. The maximum scores for 33 Indonesian provinces are shown in the brown line, while the score for Kepulauan Riau is shown in the green line. As a start, it is useful for Kepulauan Riau to observe the gaps between its own attained scores for the 12 subenvironments and the maximum scores attained across the 33 provinces by the PART 2 -- Page 23 top province for each sub-environment. Of the 12 sub-environments, Kepulauan Riau’s attainment for Standard of Living, Education and Social is marginally under the maximum attained by DI Yogyakarta. While on the other extreme, Attractiveness to Foreign Investors displays the widest gap followed by Government Policies and Fiscal Sustainability. An obvious wide gap may also be seen in the province’s attainment for Labour Market Flexibility. While in every subenvironment except Standard of Living, Education and Social, Kepulauan Riau trails the best performing provinces a fair bit, it is in the three areas that the gaps are the widest that the provincial government must immediately address as stagnation may further widen the gap, otherwise they may throw Kepulauan Riau’s economic competitiveness into disarray. 2.3 A Quantitative SWOT Table and Analysis The four-quadrant Table 7, guides the SWOT analysis for Kepulauan Riau. The top left quadrant (Strength) shows the province’s top 20% or strongest 18 indicators out of a total of 91 indicators used for ranking purposes. The higher performing indicators are presented at the top. The top right quadrant (Weakness) shows the bottom 20% or weakest 18 indicators out of the same 91 indicators used. The lower performing indicators are presented at the bottom.3 The bottom left quadrant (Opportunity) shows a hybrid score which is derived from aggregating the scores from two indicators: Openness to Trade and Services, and Attractiveness to Foreign Investors, regardless of whether the province has high or low scores for these indicators. A higher aggregate score means that the province has higher opportunity, compared to other provinces. A score of zero means that the province’s score is equivalent to the average score for all 33 provinces. The bottom right quadrant (Threat), on the other hand, shows a hybrid score which is derived from aggregating the scores from four variables: Corruption Perception Index, Prevalence of Corruption, Crime Rate, Labour Relations and Incidence of Earthquakes with 5.0+ Richter Scale, regardless of whether the province has high or low scores for these indicators. A higher aggregate score means that the province faces higher threat, compared to other provinces. PART 2 -- Page 24 For Kepulauan Riau as a province, of its top 20% strength, two on top involves growth for population in general (#1), and urban (#2), in particular, as well as overall Urban Population (#5). Reflecting urbanisation as well as a strong position in human resources is strength in health (hospital, health centres, medical workers) and education (capacity, enrolment and human development index, HDI). The province is equally sophisticated as urban strength in terms of information communication technology (ICT) connectivity (internet, phone). ACI 33 Indonesia Provinces Competitiveness Index Riau 2010 Table 7. SWOT Analysis of Kepulauan SWOT Analysis of Kepulauan Riau Strength Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Weakness 20% Strongest Indicators Score Environment 4.3390 QLID 3.4003 QLID 3.1415 MS 2.5359 MS 2.2267 QLID 1.9621 MS 1.8825 QLID 1.8771 QLID 1.8675 QLID 1.5890 QLID 1.4600 QLID 1.3892 QLID 1.1818 QLID 1.1631 QLID 1.0968 QLID 1.0585 QLID 1.0256 QLID 1.0011 MS Populaton Growth Urban Population Growth Openness To Trade Secondary Industry (%) Urban Population Consumer Price Index Populaton Per Number of Hospitals &Public Health Centers Gini Ratio Households With Handphone Mean Years of Schooling Population Per Number of Medical Workers Internet Subscribers in Office Households With Laptop Computer Internet Subscribers in House Human Development Index Households With Phone School Enrollment Rate (Senior) GRDP Per Capita Opportunity Rank 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 20%Weakest Indicators * Openness to Trade & Services * Attractiveness to FDI 100% Score Environment -0.5464 FBMC -0.5727 MS -0.6239 FBMC -0.6307 QLID -0.6352 GIS -0.7031 FBMC -0.7168 GIS -0.7189 QLID -0.7754 QLID -0.7810 GIS -0.7900 GIS -0.8351 MS -0.9223 FBMC -1.0516 GIS -1.1527 GIS -1.3515 MS -1.3565 FBMC -1.6994 FBMC Labour Force GRDP Growth Ease of Dealing With Banks Adult Illiteracy Rate Government Inclusiveness and Accountability Primary Sector Employment Government Effectiveness Perception of Quality of Life Length of (Paved) Roads (Total) Crime Rate Vibrancy of Competition and Collaboration Tertiary Industry (%) Labour Relations Prevalence of Corruption Regulatory Quality Primary Industry (%) Firms' Strategy Firms' Performance Threat * Corruption Perception Index * Prevalence of Corruption * Crime Rate * Labour Relations * Earthquakes with 5.0+ RS 100% 1.48 75% 75% 50% 50% 25% 25% 0% -0.75 0.25 - 0 1.25 -0.46 0% -0.81 2.25 + -0.56 - -0.31 -0.06 0 0.19 0.44 + In terms of top 20% weakness for Kepulauan Riau as a province, Firms’ Performance (#91), and Firms Strategy (#92) are worrisome. Aiding and abetting such private concerns are corruption (#87), Vibrancy of Competition and Collaboration (#84), Crime Rate (#83), Dealing with Banks (#76) and Labour Force (#74). Overall GRDP growth (#75) caps macroeconomic concern. The role of government is implicitly weak, explicitly and specifically in effectiveness (#80) and inclusiveness inclusiveness and accountability (#78). PART 2 -- Page 25 With private sector and government both weak, no two hands are clapping in unison despite elaborate official policy and exquisite planning it means Kepulauan Riau goes nowhere without implementing plans as wish-lists. Improving Regulatory Quality (#88) and attending to other areas of weakness as Quality of Life all comes together as joining the dots in socioeconomic development. Kepulauan Riau does not need a crisis before any wake-up call, as ACI has quite clearly forewarned, it is up to Kepulauan Riau to be forearmed. Kepulauan Riau as a province has its opportunity (1.48 in value of ranking vis-a-vis 33 provinces) very near to the 100%-band as commendable. So maintaining that is as crucial. Its threat (0.37 in value) remains is above the 75%-band, indicating again, no room for complacency, but to manoeuvre it down. PART 2 -- Page 26 SECTION 3: POLICY THEMES AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 3.1 Official policy3 The Master Plan for Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesia’s Economic Development, 2011–2025 (MP3EI) places Kepulauan Riau within the Sumatra Economic Corridor. It identifies the cities of Batam and Tanjung Pinang, respectively, as the major port for free trade zone and free port for the western Indonesia region. Tanjung Pinang, as the capital of Kepulauan Riau, is also identified as having potentials for closer connectivity with Pontianak in Kalimantan as well as with Jambi in Sumatra. The eastern coast of Sumatra, along the Malacca Strait, is also identified as a potential location to develop shipbuilding industries. Kepulauan Riau, with Karimun already ahead in this industry, will be the spearhead for other potential locations such as Belawan and Kuala Tanjung in Sumatera Utara, and Dumai in Riau province. No major infrastructure projects, however, are directly planned for Kepulauan Riau. Looking next at the local plans, Kepulauan Riau has established a mission to develop the province as a prosperous, ethical, and environmentally friendly homeland for Malay culture. Its mission specifically includes: (1) develop Malay culture as umbrella for other cultures, (2) develop the fisheries potential in small islands, (3) develop fisheries based tourism based on local culture, (4) develop local economic potential with priority on small economic actors, (5) increase investment in quality infrastructure, (6) empower the people with quality education and health services, (7) develop discipline, ethics, and supremacy of law, (8) develop a way of life that is democratic, just and gender-balanced, (9) environmentally friendly development. Karimun also envisions itself as a regency underpinned by religion as the basis of socio- 3 To be clear, in statecraft or an organisation, policy refers to a definite course of action adopted, in an effort to promote the best practice particular to desired results as in labor-intensive or capital-intensive industrialization policy or tax policy to attract foreign investment as well. Policy is aligned with strategy as a plan or method of approach developed as in an effort to successfully achieve an overall goal or objective as in industrialization strategy is to restructure and diversify industries. Strategy based on policy, both long-term, systemic with many components comes with tactics as short-term involving the detail, the procedure, and the order of how to achieve the desired results. All are part of planning; policy as vision, strategy as methodology and tactics as procedures, all to be effectively and efficiently implemented to accomplish any target as prescribed by a policy. PART 2 -- Page 27 political stability for economic activities. The four azzam (commitment) of the regency government are improvement in faith and religious practices, economic development based on society, human resources improvement, as well as art and culture development. The provincial vision and mission statements seem to place high priority on ethnic identities and local way of life. It is an interesting take, considering that major parts of the province is being developed as a SEZ. This raises some questions of whether, and to what extent there is synchrony between the expectations of the central government with those of the local government. All of this creates uncertainty in policy-making and stalls execution along the way. In relation to the SEZ, there are quite number of actors and institutions involved in Batam policy-making. These include Batam municipality government, Batam Indonesia Free Zone Authority (BIFZA, otherwise known as Badan Pengusahaan Batam or BP Batam — previously Otorita Batam), Regional Council (Dewan Kawasan), the provincial government, as well as the central government. The presence of various overlapping institutions and authorities reflect the multitude of interests in the region. It creates some confusion on how to move forward, hence affecting execution. Nonetheless, some priorities seem to have been established for BBK SEZ. The plan is for Indonesia and Singapore governments to collectively focus on three sub-sectors: (1) Enterprises server storage networking system (IT), (2) consumer electronics and engineering, and (3) shipbuilding related to maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) activity support. As for the main economic activities, the supply chain is determined by the export oriented activities and products, such as electronics, oil and gas supporting industry, and shipyard industry. Total work force in these sub-sectors is around 300,000. The governments of Batam, Bintan and Karimun are individually focusing on some common themes such as education and healthcare. For education, the Batam government has a higher learning institution called Batam Polytechnic (established in 2000). The number of students is around 1,000, with courses in accounting, IT (software development) and mechatronics. Bintan and Karimun also have higher learning institutions in various fields related to their industries. However, all three seem to agree that on-the-job training is as crucial as informal PART 2 -- Page 28 education since technologies get obsolete quickly. They are now sending local students to onthe-job training both in Java as well as to relevant centres in the region. 3.2 What-if Competitiveness Simulation Analysis (overall and 4 environments) Relative ranking is not simply a beauty contest. If a province is ranked low and wishes to improve its positioning by policies, it certainly can. By ACI’s simulation methodology (policy-induced), in the next set of tables below, for before and after simulation, the improvement in performance is seen the ranking of 33 provinces comprising: 1) Overall Competitiveness 2) Macroeconomic Stability 3) Government and Institutional Setting 4) Financial, Business and Manpower Conditions 5) Quality of Life and Infrastructure Development The What-if Competitiveness Simulation is conducted to find out how much a province could raise its competitiveness ranking if it focused to improve its bottom 20% or weakest 18 indicators.4 This exercise is based on three assumptions: 1) The simulation is conducted one province at a time. 2) A province raised the scores of its 18 weakest indicators to match the average score 5 for that indicator among the 33 provinces. 3) The scores for other provinces are assumed to remain constant, i.e. the others did not improve on their top 20% or 18 weakest indicators. The new scores based on improved indicators scores are then re-calculated to derive a new score and new ranking for said province. It is important to note that by the third assumption of What-if Competitiveness Simulation, we cannot compare a province with other provinces in ranking vertically across. What-if improvement is after simulation by the province, with the other provinces considered as static; 4 Top 20% strength and weakness at provincial level means 18 indicators out of a total of 91, whereas in the national paper on Indonesia as with the rest of ASEAN states, with more data available, it is 28 out of a total of 128 indicators. 5 A very competitive province which already has higher than average scores, even for its top 20% or 18 weakest indicators, will keep those original scores. PART 2 -- Page 29 in other words, all What-if tables as collating all provinces cannot mean comparisons vertically across. Table 8: What-if Competitiveness Simulation Analysis on Overall Competitiveness Ranking and Score (Year 2010) Province Aceh Bali Banten Bengkulu DI Yogyakarta DKI Jakarta Gorontalo Jambi Jawa Barat Jawa Tengah Jawa Timur Kalimantan Barat Kalimantan Selatan Kalimantan Tengah Kalimantan Timur Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Kepulauan Riau Lampung Maluku Maluku Utara Nusa Tenggara Barat Nusa Tenggara Timur Papua Papua Barat Riau Sulawesi Barat Sulawesi Selatan Sulawesi Tengah Sulawesi Tenggara Sulawesi Utara Sumatera Barat Sumatera Selatan Sumatera Utara Rank Before After 16 10 9 6 7 6 27 15 6 5 1 1 15 13 25 15 4 3 5 3 2 2 22 15 13 9 26 15 3 2 29 8 20 31 32 28 33 24 30 10 21 11 23 18 14 17 12 19 16 6 15 15 30 15 31 12 15 6 14 8 15 14 10 14 9 10 Score Before After -0.1444 0.1184 0.1371 0.2792 0.2343 0.3931 -0.2735 -0.1121 0.2757 0.4263 1.7576 1.9788 -0.1130 0.0670 -0.2506 -0.0910 0.5113 0.6594 0.4282 0.5718 0.6644 0.7661 -0.2273 -0.1027 0.0146 0.1336 -0.2681 -0.0784 0.5523 0.6891 -0.3085 0.1708 -0.1956 -0.3438 -0.5107 -0.2969 -0.6014 -0.2378 -0.3179 0.1152 -0.2062 0.0993 -0.2311 -0.1655 -0.0259 -0.1559 0.0816 -0.1683 -0.1383 0.3392 -0.0372 -0.0748 -0.3179 -0.1141 -0.3431 0.0837 -0.0666 0.3096 -0.0191 0.2028 -0.0765 -0.0059 0.1209 0.0024 0.1590 0.1230 Table 8 for Overall Competitiveness, simulating a situation where Kepulauan Riau’s weakest 20% indicators are brought up to average scores of all 33 provinces, it improves in ranking from eighth to sixth. This may seem like a marginal rise, but keeping the momentum to upgrade is crucial. Its positive score also improves. A small jump means that Kepulauan Riau is already starting from a good position. But improving in scores 0.1708 to 0.3392 is necessary as there is a lot of potential to be realised. PART 2 -- Page 30 Table 9: What-if Competitiveness Simulation Analysis on Macroeconomic Stability Competitiveness Ranking and Score (Year 2010) Province Aceh Bali Banten Bengkulu DI Yogyakarta DKI Jakarta Gorontalo Jambi Jawa Barat Jawa Tengah Jawa Timur Kalimantan Barat Kalimantan Selatan Kalimantan Tengah Kalimantan Timur Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Kepulauan Riau Lampung Maluku Maluku Utara Nusa Tenggara Barat Nusa Tenggara Timur Papua Papua Barat Riau Sulawesi Barat Sulawesi Selatan Sulawesi Tengah Sulawesi Tenggara Sulawesi Utara Sumatera Barat Sumatera Selatan Sumatera Utara Rank Before After 33 21 8 8 7 6 30 21 18 11 1 1 27 24 14 14 3 2 6 6 2 2 24 18 12 11 21 11 4 4 13 5 17 23 26 22 29 11 19 9 28 15 32 31 20 25 16 10 11 5 17 18 26 21 26 10 11 8 18 11 21 18 12 14 12 10 Score Before After -0.5025 -0.2735 0.1384 0.2595 0.2649 0.3522 -0.4402 -0.2589 -0.2399 -0.0551 3.2084 3.2960 -0.3925 -0.3266 -0.1688 -0.1461 0.9083 0.9856 0.2862 0.3658 0.9111 0.9529 -0.3531 -0.2310 -0.1147 -0.0173 -0.2701 -0.0823 0.6212 0.7227 In -0.1313 0.3875 -0.1864 -0.3003 -0.3765 -0.3000 -0.4298 -0.1051 -0.2511 0.1354 -0.3981 -0.1794 -0.4770 -0.4602 -0.2518 -0.3733 -0.1842 0.0246 after policy simulation, -0.0981 0.4990 -0.1864 -0.2120 -0.3765 -0.2560 -0.3772 0.0673 -0.0664 0.2157 -0.2386 -0.0074 -0.2774 -0.2114 -0.1157 -0.1390 -0.1095 0.0246 Table 9 for Macroeconomic Sta bility, improvement of Kepulauan Riau’s top 20% weakest indicators does not bring the province up in terms of rank. It remains at fifth place even after simulation. However, as its scores remain negative, -0.4536 and -0.1300 before and the 10-place jump needs to be solidified. PART 2 -- Page 31 Table 10: What-If Competitiveness Simulation (WCS) Analysis on Government and Institutional Setting Competitiveness Ranking and Score (Year 2010) Province Aceh Bali Banten Bengkulu DI Yogyakarta DKI Jakarta Gorontalo Jambi Jawa Barat Jawa Tengah Jawa Timur Kalimantan Barat Kalimantan Selatan Kalimantan Tengah Kalimantan Timur Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Kepulauan Riau Lampung Maluku Maluku Utara Nusa Tenggara Barat Nusa Tenggara Timur Papua Papua Barat Riau Sulawesi Barat Sulawesi Selatan Sulawesi Tengah Sulawesi Tenggara Sulawesi Utara Sumatera Barat Sumatera Selatan Sumatera Utara Rank Before After 13 4 16 13 5 4 20 14 4 3 1 1 8 4 25 18 9 4 3 2 2 2 18 14 11 10 24 19 17 14 26 29 21 33 31 19 32 22 28 27 12 7 14 15 10 23 6 30 24 19 14 18 24 14 24 10 18 14 6 6 13 10 6 16 6 11 Score Before After 0.1396 0.6022 0.0061 0.1936 0.5031 0.5573 -0.1314 0.1154 0.5193 0.6111 1.1541 1.3107 0.4271 0.5637 -0.3454 -0.0297 0.3625 0.5235 0.6016 0.6750 0.6534 0.7220 -0.0738 0.0618 0.2435 0.2691 -0.3433 -0.0935 -0.0068 0.1315 In Table 10 for Government -0.3558 -0.4536 -0.2175 -0.7544 -0.6653 -0.1249 -0.6917 -0.2407 -0.4414 -0.4048 0.2303 0.4371 0.0478 0.0181 0.2574 -0.2452 0.4398 -0.5447 The original position of -0.2530 -0.1300 0.1030 -0.0742 -0.2694 0.0749 -0.3106 0.2978 -0.0568 0.0550 0.4419 0.4932 0.1854 0.2561 0.4405 0.0081 0.4729 0.2383 and Institutional Setting, a simulation where Kepulauan Riau improves on its 20% weakest indicators will bring the province’s rank from 29th place to 19th place. This is a 10-step jump, and shows the area where he province should concentrate on improving. 29th is not appropriate for a province as advanced and competitive as Kepulauan Riau. However, scores remain negative, and −0.1300 −0.4536 as its before and after policy simulation, the 10-place jump needs to be solidified. PART 2 -- Page 32 Table 11: What-If Competitiveness Simulation (WCS) Analysis on Financial, Businesses and Manpower Conditions Competitiveness Ranking and Score (Year 2010) Province Aceh Bali Banten Bengkulu DI Yogyakarta DKI Jakarta Gorontalo Jambi Jawa Barat Jawa Tengah Jawa Timur Kalimantan Barat Kalimantan Selatan Kalimantan Tengah Kalimantan Timur Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Kepulauan Riau Lampung Maluku Maluku Utara Nusa Tenggara Barat Nusa Tenggara Timur Papua Papua Barat Riau Sulawesi Barat Sulawesi Selatan Sulawesi Tengah Sulawesi Tenggara Sulawesi Utara Sumatera Barat Sumatera Selatan Sumatera Utara Rank Before 23 13 22 26 18 1 20 29 5 4 3 14 27 25 2 11 for Financial, After 0.0169 0.1226 0.0739 -0.1885 0.0487 1.7466 0.0885 -0.1684 0.7736 0.8609 0.8875 -0.0621 -0.0521 -0.1096 1.1305 Businesses and Manpower -0.5167 0.0540 -0.0323 -0.0495 -0.4830 -0.1322 0.2400 -0.0137 0.0889 -0.4047 matter. This leap in ranking 24 -0.3086 -0.2513 points. Competition does get 25 7 10 5 19 9 18 15 20 14 8 10 -0.5380 0.1643 -0.1465 0.5555 -0.1739 -0.0645 -0.2495 -0.1267 -0.3552 -0.1208 0.1235 -0.1806 -0.2810 0.3280 -0.0172 0.6690 -0.1739 0.1045 -0.1554 -0.1096 -0.1784 -0.0952 0.1346 0.0126 harder and tougher at the top. After 10 8 9 23 9 1 9 18 4 3 3 12 12 14 2 Score Before -0.2005 -0.0778 -0.1838 -0.2906 -0.1720 1.3993 -0.1797 -0.3297 0.6432 0.7087 0.8620 -0.1052 -0.2954 -0.2868 0.9566 32 9 10 11 31 16 7 10 9 31 28 33 7 17 6 19 12 24 16 30 15 8 21 Table Conditions, with policy simulation Kepulauan Riau is able to rise to seventh position, compared ninth position it held previously. It remains at a better place among top-10 creme de le crème is important. It cannot let confidence and credibility slip, both ranking and scores may seem minor, but it improves score from 0.0540 to 0.2400, or by about 186 basis This improvement is certainly significant to help the province become more competitive as an international investment destination. PART 2 -- Page 33 Table 12: What-If Competitiveness Simulation (WCS) Analysis on Quality of Life and Infrastructure Development Competitiveness Ranking and Score (Year 2010) Province Aceh Bali Banten Bengkulu DI Yogyakarta DKI Jakarta Gorontalo Jambi Jawa Barat Jawa Tengah Jawa Timur Kalimantan Barat Kalimantan Selatan Kalimantan Tengah Kalimantan Timur Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Kepulauan Riau Lampung Maluku Maluku Utara Nusa Tenggara Barat Nusa Tenggara Timur Papua Papua Barat Riau Sulawesi Barat Sulawesi Selatan Sulawesi Tengah Sulawesi Tenggara Sulawesi Utara Sumatera Barat Sumatera Selatan Sumatera Utara Rank Before After 16 12 5 5 6 5 22 19 2 2 1 1 25 17 19 17 12 6 13 6 8 5 27 20 9 7 20 17 4 3 Score Before After -0.0142 0.1280 0.4818 0.5799 0.3528 0.5893 -0.2318 -0.1165 0.9952 1.1006 1.2684 1.5618 -0.3070 -0.0577 -0.1584 -0.0196 0.1311 0.3550 0.1161 0.3854 0.2310 0.5020 -0.3769 -0.1794 0.2249 0.3348 -0.1723 -0.0468 0.6381 0.7542 21 18 -0.2303 -0.0698 3 26 24 31 29 32 33 28 11 30 10 23 18 7 14 17 15 3 17 19 21 16 28 25 19 7 18 7 18 15 7 10 15 11 0.6953 -0.3463 -0.2710 -0.5181 -0.4543 -0.7460 -0.7695 -0.4327 0.1749 -0.4830 0.2038 -0.2455 -0.0932 0.2462 0.1156 -0.0526 0.0276 0.7284 -0.0518 -0.1021 -0.2209 -0.0240 -0.4036 -0.3118 -0.1259 0.2753 -0.1058 0.3181 -0.0587 0.0414 0.3192 0.2211 0.1066 0.1914 Table 12 for Quality of Life and Infrastructure Development, Kepulauan Riau is already competitive for Indonesia’s standards, and it remains at third place even after simulation. When a province is already doing well, improvement in rank gets tougher, improvement in but score is always possible, no matter how marginal. If Kepulauan Riau, or BBK SEZ specifically, is targeting itself to become a “prominent investment destination in Asia Pacific”, as it stated in its official document, then it should not be satisfied with a relatively good position compared to other Indonesian provinces. It should, instead, aim to be better and improve to aim for international standards. PART 2 -- Page 34 3.3 Development strategies An analysis of Kepulauan Riau’s competitiveness ranking from four different environments as per ACI methodology shows that the province is quite competitive in terms of Quality of Life and Infrastructure Development (third position), Macroeconomic Stability (fifth position), and doing better than average in terms of Financial, Business and Manpower Condition (ninth position). It is doing poorly, however, in terms of Government and Institutional Setting (29th position). This brings forth clear recommendations in terms of development strategies to plug the wish-list of official policy and reality check in execution. Kepulauan Riau clearly needs to improve on its Government and Institutional Setting. An analysis of SWOT Table 7 shows that the province’s weaknesses are dominated by low scores of indicators from this particular environment. The indicator which generates the most concern is Regulatory Quality. This is largely attributable to the overlapping regulatory institutions that govern BBK SEZ, most particularly Batam, as regulated by a number of central and local government institutions. They include BIFZA, Regional Council, provincial government, municipal government, as well as central government ministries. This creates confusion, and delays, slow-moving action to decide what to do in Batam. Another issue with Regulatory Quality is the orientation of local regulations, which seem to focus on developing local cultural and religious identities. This, in itself, is not an issue until such locally-oriented regulations form a backlash by those who think that development has hampered local values. Hosting a SEZ, of course, is an indication of willingness to be engaged more openly with the international society and foreign investors. Were there any local tensions in terms of how BBK should go about in establishing the SEZ? This issue needs further investigation or mixed signals to FDI result. Regulations related to land acquisition and protection of land-use rights are also important aspects of regulatory quality that keeps out FDI. This problem is not unique to Kepulauan Riau, but applies nationally. The reason is a weak law that does not stipulate clearly how land PART 2 -- Page 35 could be acquired for investment purposes in balance with protection of local livelihood. Lack of clarity in terms of whether and how land could be acquired has given investors uncertainty in their business plans. Other issues related to Government and Institutional Setting is high crime rate and the perception that there is high prevalence of corruption. Related to this environment, but actually placed under Financial, Business and Manpower Conditions, is the perception that the province is also hampered by unfavourable Labour Relations. Together, these indicators contribute to the formation of the aggregate indicator “Threat”. The province, together with the central government and related authorities, therefore needs to work on curbing crime and corruption, as well as ensuring an environment of labour relations that is favourable for both workers and firms. The local and provincial governments still need to work hard to win the hearts of the people as well as business owners. There is currently low perception in terms of Government Effectiveness, Government Inclusiveness, and Government Accountability. A survey of the business establishments in the province shows that business owners think the government is not very effective or accountable. They also think that they are not consulted enough in the province’s decision-making. These are issues of governance. Kepulauan Riau could improve much on its competitiveness by adhering to the principles of good governance. The government is already on the right track in its commitment to trade openness as well as improving education and healthcare services to the people. In manufacturing activities, human resources are indeed one of an area’s main assets. Aside from the need for adequate infrastructure, industrial activities are based on the premise of skilled and healthy workers at competitive wages. Competitive does not necessarily mean the cheapest. Kepulauan Riau has to offer labour that gives value in comparison. If the province does not offer any skills, then it has no choice, but to be realistic and offer cheap labour. However, if it can offer skilled labour, it does not have to resort to being cheap. This way, the province develops more a sophisticated form of competitiveness, not just one based on cost. This will ultimately bring more benefits to businesses, workers and governments alike. PART 2 -- Page 36 Finally, none of the above could be achieved without adequate infrastructure. Roads, rail, seaports, and airports are vital elements that enable timely and inexpensive movement of raw, semi-processed, and final goods. This condition is experienced throughout Indonesia but should not happen especially in a SEZ with long history as that in Kepulauan Riau. Infrastructure of Kepulauan Riau is already struggling to meet current demand, much less to meet the demands of the future, when the BBK SEZ is running in full steam. Local, provincial, and central government coordination is needed to quickly plan and establish the infrastructure needed. Possible involvement of private sector may also be explored in the form of public-private partnerships (PPPs). PART 2 -- Page 37 SECTION 4: CONCLUDING REMARKS Kepulauan Riau enjoys an open economy and a history of industrialisation and external trade, strengthened by the position of BBK as SEZ. It also has much potential from being located at the gate of the Malacca Strait, just a short distance away from Singapore. Furthermore, it has natural resources in the form of natural gas in Natuna. All this should place the province in a very competitive position compared to other provinces in Indonesia. It is pertinent to note that cooperation with Singapore in Batam SEZ has instilled a holistic, integrated and systemic approach to joining all the dots in any plan execution. It is not just about efficiency, effectiveness or productivity, crucial as these criteria are. Thorough thinking, back and forth, anticipating, and proactive for overall competitiveness be responsive are hallmarks of success. Indeed, the province is not doing badly. Ranked at eight position, it occupies a place among the provinces with high competitiveness, but not for Government and Institutional Setting at 29th. This begs the question of whether Kepulauan Riau should be able to do better. The answer is yes. Given the potential that it has, the province could have achieved better more, and could easily have been among the top five competitive provinces. Development of Kepulauan Riau is critical for several reasons. First, considering its proximity to Singapore, improving the province’s performance should be an “easy win”. There are already interested investors who are waiting across the Malacca Strait, as well as from other parts of the world. If Kepulauan Riau can provide the right environment, attracting more investment should not be a big hurdle. Second, developing Kepulauan Riau into a stronger manufacturing hub can bring the benefits of industrial restructuring in Indonesia. Currently, a significant part of Indonesia’s GDP is generated by natural resources. This brings a dilemma. Exploitation of natural resources is not only unsustainable, but also not quite labourintensive, especially in high-skilled job. Indonesia needs to generate more jobs and engage in activities that will enable local enterprises to develop their own industrial activities through knowledge and technology transfers. PART 2 -- Page 38 Kepulauan Riau is doing much better than the average Indonesian province in terms of Openness to Trade, Productivity Performance, Infrastructure and Standard of Living. Its Attractiveness to Foreign Investors is, interestingly, about the same level as the average for Indonesian provinces. Considering that Attractiveness to Foreign Investors is a function of the past three-year average FDI flows into the province, we can interpret that between 2008 to 2010, Kepulauan Riau has been attracting mediocre level of investment. Or at least, less than it has been in the past. This is a matter of concern, especially given Kepulauan Riau’s huge endowment which should make it much more attractive to FDI. Apparently since 2007, three years leading up to 2010, Kepulauan Riau is no longer such an attractive investment destination. Why is that so? Several potential answers could be further explored. Looking at the environments which Kepulauan Riau has not performed well, we can see that there is much room for improvement in aspects related to Governance and Institutional Setting. Of particular concern is Competition, Regulatory Standards and Rule of Law. This subenvironment scored lower compared to other provinces. This could perhaps be explained by the confusion over Batam’s authority, which is currently handled in an overlapping manner between various central and local institutions. Land market is another issue that still expects solution from a coordination of central and local governments. Without a rule of law that gives sufficient protection of land use, investment is bound to be short and opportunistic. Another low score in this environment go to Financial Deepening and Business Efficiency, which indicate low level of efficiency in conducting manufacturing in the province and lack of adequate supply chains. This question could be placed on the manufacturing firms operating in BBK, which are mainly foreigners. Why do they operate with such low efficiency? Is it a matter of issues related to the local business environment, or the spotlight should be placed on the firms which are not very innovative and lean in their operations? A possible insight could be generated from looking at another low-scoring indicator, which is Labour Market Flexibility. Could low levels of efficiency be attributed to labour tensions that plague Batam lately? Is the problem related to Indonesia’s labour laws, which some people have indicated as too stringent, or is the problem related to more local tensions between factories and workers? Is more research needed to identify the issues at stake in more detail, PART 2 -- Page 39 or Kepulauan Riau has to start what is so clearly identified by ACI now, in motion? Paralysis by analysis is a pity. In conclusion and in terms of policy implications, Kepulauan Riau as a province is more outstanding, literally and figuratively than most others. This is in terms of geographic spatial location and proximity to Singapore with a competitive advantage in industries such as shipyard and tourism. These need to be constantly cherished and continuously enhanced. As the pioneer of ASEAN growth triangles, emblematic of PPPs, it is both a model with many lessons and much experience for BBK in particular, and Indonesia in general. Industrial clusters within and outside the province can be as Indonesian as regional and global. Kepulauan Riau has appreciated economies of scale and scope as well as agglomeration through its SEZ development in partnership with Singapore. It is a matter of appetite of investors if Kepulauan Riau is fully cognisant and aware of what is missing in terms of human resources. Equally emphasised as policy themes and development strategies is more investors to be attracted vis-a-vis land, infrastructure and other issues resonating across Indonesia for island groupings. Kepulauan Riau must build a clear understanding and insight of its strategic location on one hand, and SWOT-gap on the other hand. Both of these remain at the core of its policy theme. For a full meeting of minds and policy at the local, provincial, and central governmental levels, this is truly as Indonesian challenge as any. Effective and credible communication to investors at home and abroad is not just public relations, they sell opportunity and create buyin. PART 2 -- Page 40 PART IV: INDUSTRIAL UPGRADING MODELS AND ANALYSIS ON REVITALIZING BBK SEZS WITH INDUSTRY-SPECIFIC FOCUS ON ENTERPRISE SERVERS, STORAGE & NETWORKING SYSTEM (ESSNS), CONSUMERS COMPONENTS (CEEC) ELECTRONICS AND & ELECTRICAL SHIPBUILDING, SUPPORT EQUIPMENT FOR OIL & GAS DRILLING (SOG) CLUSTERS. There are four Industrial upgrading models regional economic expansion for developing economies as follows: 1. Industrial Districts: It is an industry strategy by way of a three-prong approach to systematically harness market, government and social capital as core forces to provide catalytic effect to ensure production organization. Through inter & intra dynamic coordination amongst firms to march towards industrialization. Such industry district scale development model required a highly discipline and efficient government which can effective plan and execute. 2. Growth Poles: Emphasize on a single industry or single group of companies, through government’s investment in infrastructure in a single location to promote regional economic development so as to stimulate or strengthen economic externalities and competitiveness. Such regional industrial development model is relatively more risky and usually is being led by a regional development agency with strong leadership and ample resources. 3. Export Processing Zones Resource-poor economies initially identify the build-up of basic infrastructure in a designated approved export processing zone. Smoothing custom coordination and security arrangements help to attract foreign direct investment so as to create employment under the export-oriented strategy. However, with rising costs of production and emergence of other low cost production centers thus resulted in loss of attractiveness as an investment destination and trade volume. 4. Industrial Clustering The strategy of building industrial cluster is to mobilize critical resources and harness core competence so as to achieve global competitiveness and secure advantages PART 2 -- Page 41 position. Through a knowledge-based economy, effort would be required to enhance higher productivity and innovative capability. Clustering firms, through high-tech research and development, would try to stimulate supply chain participation and attract further economic activities (See chart A, B & C). Such an industrial clustering regional development model is most suitable for an economy to further upgrade and maintains its leading edge. Chart A: Critical factors for Industrial repositioning and upgrading Chart B: Supply chain system PART 2 -- Page 42 Chart C: Value chain activities Suggestions for Indonesia / BBK’s industrial clusters and industrial upgrading We have reviewed and analyzed on Indonesia’s (and BBK’s) potential industrial development and economic upgrading process. We thus concluded tentatively with the following suggestions. The thrust of our analysis is to exploit on Indonesia’s current comparative economic advantage, with proposals to enhance strengths and to overcome existing weaknesses. We explored how Indonesia can and should take full advantage on the current international economic development and potential reshuffling or shifts in foreign direct investment and business opportunities so as to ensure sustained economic growth with minimized threats and risks. We therefore propose for Indonesia / BBK SEZs the following 11 Industrial Clusters including: A – Petroleum & Petrochemical Cluster (BBK?) B – Heavy Engineering Cluster (BBK?) C – Shipping & Logistic Cluster (BBK) D – Electronics Cluster (BBK) PART 2 -- Page 43 E – Aircraft, Automobiles & Precision Engineering Cluster (BBK?) F – General Supporting Industries Cluster G – General Export Processing Cluster H – Information & Communication Technology Cluster (BBK) I – Agriculture Processing Cluster J – Tourism Cluster K – Construction Cluster Chart A to Chart K list in detailed the respective industrial cluster’s drivers, core and secondary activities and core capabilities and skills required. Proposed Petroleum & Petrochemical Cluster Analysis A: PART 2 -- Page 44 Proposed Heavy Engineering Industrial Cluster Analysis B : Proposed Shipping & Logistic Cluster Analysis C: PART 2 -- Page 45 Proposed Electronics Cluster Analysis D: Proposed Aircraft, Automobiles & Precision Engineering Cluster Analysis E: PART 2 -- Page 46 Proposed General Supporting Industries Cluster Analysis F: Proposed General Export Processing Cluster Analysis G: PART 2 -- Page 47 Proposed Information & Communication Technology Cluster Analysis H: Proposed Agricultural Processing Cluster Analysis I: PART 2 -- Page 48 Proposed Tourism Cluster Analysis J: Proposed Construction Cluster Analysis K: PART 2 -- Page 49 PART V: FIVE CORE SUGGESTIONS FOR INDUSTRIAL UPGRADING AND REVITALIZING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FOR BBK SEZs, PERTINENT ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED AND PROPOSED URGENT REFORMS REQUIRED. In order to achieve BBK’s medium term economic growth objectives with forward-looking pro-business strategies, industrial repositioning with effort to regain her relative competitiveness vis-à-vis other Asian economies. We thus address policies issues, based on our interviews with major players and potential investors, pertaining to a few targeted industrial clusters with following core suggestions for urgent reforms (i) Labor market conditions and reform measures a) Labor supply, labor demand and labor market inflexibility b) Highly politicized union militancy versus wage maximization and employment maximization models c) Ineffective minimum wage policy and cost of labor for SMEs d) Manpower gap in skills, training and productivity which can undertake jointly with Singapore and Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) and Economic Development Board (EDB) of Singapore (ii) (iii) Incentives and benefits for potential Investors a) Land lease, rental charges and land prices b) Clustering of downstream supplier activities c) Tax incentives, tax holidays and other business-related benefits One-stop Investment promotion and marketing agency for potential and existing investors a) Joint-marketing effort abroad by BBK Investment Authorities together with EDB of Singapore and BKPM of Indonesia. b) Highlighting relative competitiveness of Riau Islands vis-à-vis 33 provinces of Indonesia and in the context of Asian regional economies including 34 Greater China economies, 35 states of India and ASEAN-9. (iv) Better management of production processes and establish a complete value-chain amongst multinational corporation (MNCs) and small & medium enterprises PART 2 -- Page 50 a) Set up a Business Facilitation Agency (BFA) set up and funded by the business community and endorsed by the local and central government. BFA would help to resolve and overcome day-to-day production problems faced by companies. b) To hold regular meetings or seminars to brief on policy / new regulations to existing and/or potential companies. c) (v) Identify relevant suppliers to support targeted manufacturing sub-sectors Enhance further closer coordination between local and central government a) Reduce layers of decision making process such as issuance of production permits which may lie with different level of governing authorities within the province and which would also involve negotiation with the central government. b) Streamline inefficient bureaucracy where decision making can be further decentralized and improve ease of doing business. Pertinent issues on environmental friendliness and sustainability to be addressed when re-vitalizing and upgrading development for BBK SEZs It is possible to have balanced and sustained economic growth in harmony with environment. Experience of Singapore with well-considered economic principles, effective policy formulation, legal legislation and implementation further support such view. (i) When considering initiating projects or making choices, do look at the longer-term cost sustainability the next best choice and the optimal timing (ii) When setting appropriate pricing in order to achieve high efficiency and low cost benefits, do consider the full cost recovery of environmental protection, reflect on pricing of other policy formulations such as water conservancy charges and price differential for management of industrial waste. (iii) Through market competition to achieve an effective redistribution of risks, broaden the range and cost of waste recycle, innovative approach in waste disposal and diffusion of environmental technology. PART 2 -- Page 51 (iv) Through subsidies, price mechanism and legislation measures to overcome market imperfection (v) Closer coordination and interaction between local community, stake holders and vested groups (vi) Better connected with global communities in terms of research, training in technology, enhance regional and bilateral cooperation, sharing of experiences and be a citizen of the global village under Montreal Protocol, Basel Convention, and Kyoto Protocol. Suggested executive training programs to be undertaken English/Bahasa Indonesia to supplement re-vitalizing and upgrading of development for BBK SEZs Module A: Latest global economic profile updating for senior government officials and senior management staff from the private sector corporations): Analyze relative competitiveness of global economies and shifts in global engines of growth to ASEAN especially in the context of emerging China and India. Module B: Master planning and development blueprint for BBK for senior government officials and senior management staff from the private sector corporations): To undertake longer-term integrated master planning and development strategies for BBK which must take into account of population, manpower requirement and public services provision. Module C: On policy formulations for a friendly and sustainable environment for BBK government officials and administrative staff from private sector corporations): Formulating and implementing policies for an integrated green and sustainable environment in conjunction with affordable housing, transportation infrastructure industrial waste and clean water treatment for BBK. PART 2 -- Page 52 APPENDIX COMPARATIVE EVALUATION ON RELATIVE COMPETITIVENESS OF REGIONAL SPECIAL ECONOMIC / INDUSTRIAL ZONES: A SWOT ANALYSIS AND ROLE OF THE GOVERNMENT PART 2 -- Page 53