HorseStreet Handicapper, v5

Transcription

HorseStreet Handicapper,
v5
©2007, David E. Schwartz
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4
Table of Contents
Foreword
8
10
Part I Getting Started
1 Uh-Oh - Everything
...................................................................................................................................
is Grayed-Out
10
2 Before We Begin
................................................................................................................................... 10
3 Introduction................................................................................................................................... 13
4 How to Use ...................................................................................................................................
This Manual
15
5 Icons Used in
...................................................................................................................................
This Manual
17
6 My Beliefs ................................................................................................................................... 19
21
Part II Tutorial 1: Downloading and Importing
1 HSH Actually
...................................................................................................................................
Two Programs
22
2 Downloading
...................................................................................................................................
Past Performances
27
Download All..........................................................................................................................................................
Available PPs & Charts
30
3 Importing Past
...................................................................................................................................
Performances
31
4 Importing Charts
................................................................................................................................... 36
5 Posting Races
...................................................................................................................................
To The Model
39
Part III Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH
1 Run HSH
45
................................................................................................................................... 46
2 Setting Preferences
................................................................................................................................... 47
3 Setting MyTracks
................................................................................................................................... 50
4 Open a Previous
...................................................................................................................................
Day
53
5 HQ
................................................................................................................................... 55
6 Handicapping
...................................................................................................................................
a Race
63
7 SAR01
................................................................................................................................... 75
8 CRC02
................................................................................................................................... 81
Contents
9 SAR02
5
................................................................................................................................... 87
99
Part IV Tutorial 3: More Handicapping
1 CRC03
................................................................................................................................... 100
2 SAR03
................................................................................................................................... 112
3 CRC04
................................................................................................................................... 121
Part V Sample Handicappers
142
1 Bill: Basic Value
...................................................................................................................................
Handicapper
142
Part VI Articles and Papers
144
1 Handicapping
...................................................................................................................................
vs. Exploitation
144
2 Pars vs. No-Pars
................................................................................................................................... 144
3 Reading List
................................................................................................................................... 144
4 Relative Value
................................................................................................................................... 144
Part VII How Do I... ?
146
1 Run HSH? ................................................................................................................................... 146
2 Run HSJ? ................................................................................................................................... 147
3 Use the Auto-Downloader?
................................................................................................................................... 148
4 Database Topics
................................................................................................................................... 149
Check Model..........................................................................................................................................................
Status?
Manage Circuits?
..........................................................................................................................................................
149
150
5 Analyst Topics
................................................................................................................................... 150
WPS Betting..........................................................................................................................................................
Systems
150
6 Race Day Topics
................................................................................................................................... 151
HQ
..........................................................................................................................................................
Open Day ..........................................................................................................................................................
Psuedo Bet?..........................................................................................................................................................
Race Conditions
..........................................................................................................................................................
Window
Screen Layout
..........................................................................................................................................................
Suggestions
Results Window
..........................................................................................................................................................
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154
155
155
155
159
5
6
7 Race Window
................................................................................................................................... 162
Analyst Tab ..........................................................................................................................................................
Probabilitities
.........................................................................................................................................................
Tab
Win Dutch
.........................................................................................................................................................
Tab
165
166
168
8 Contact HorseStreet?
................................................................................................................................... 173
Part VIII Appendix
175
1 Handicapping
...................................................................................................................................
Objects
175
2 Tracks List................................................................................................................................... 175
Part IX Glossary
177
1 Glossary A-D
................................................................................................................................... 177
2 Glossary E-H
................................................................................................................................... 178
3 Glossary I-L
................................................................................................................................... 179
4 Glossary M-P
................................................................................................................................... 180
5 Glossary Q-U
................................................................................................................................... 181
6 Glossary V-Z
................................................................................................................................... 183
Part X Racing Who's Who
185
1 Quirin, Dr. ...................................................................................................................................
William L.
185
2 Cramer, Jim
................................................................................................................................... 185
Part XI Settings
187
1 E-S-P Definitions
................................................................................................................................... 187
2 Grades
................................................................................................................................... 188
3 Notepad Width
................................................................................................................................... 189
4 Odds Groups
................................................................................................................................... 190
5 Time Zone ................................................................................................................................... 191
6 Which HQ?................................................................................................................................... 192
7 Word Processor
................................................................................................................................... 193
Contents
Part XII New Features in H5
Index
7
195
196
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Foreword
Foreword
This is just another title page
placed between table of contents
and topics
Top Level Intro
This page is printed before a new
top-level chapter starts
Part
I
10
1
Getting Started
1.1
Uh-Oh - Everything is Grayed-Out
Don't panic! These buttons are grayed out because there is no
"day open" for handicapping. First, we need to get some data in.
That is coming up real soon.
1.2
Before We Begin
Basic Assumptions
We are going to get you up and running as quickly as
possible. Let's start with How to use this manual.
I believe that a picture really is worth a thousand words.
Since I type very slowly, I'd rather take pictures. Therefore,
this manual is, essentially, a picture book. That does not
mean it has no commentary, but I have tried to keep the
prose as limited as possible. (I said it was a picture book,
not a coffee table book.)
I am assuming you have done two things at this point:
Getting Started
1. You have installed the software
I mean, how difficult is it to open the setup program and
click "next, next, next... finish?" Besides, if you haven't
installed the software, how much can you really expect to
learn from this manual?
If you really are having a problem with installation, just pick
up the telephone and get some help.
2. You have opened an account with HDW, our data
provider.
If you have not yet done this, please contact them
immediately and do so.
HDW Inc.
100 Farmers Bank Square
Suite 120
Georgetown, KY 40324
(502) 570-0333
HDWInfo@earthlink.net
Assumptions About You, The Horseplayer
I am operating under three assumptions about you. If these
assumptions do not fit you, then your money will likely be
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wasted on HSH. We are simply not capable of spending the
time necessary to educate you in the areas you are lacking
without significant extra cost on your part.
1. You would typify yourself as at least an
intermediate-level player in terms of your horse racing
knowledge.
Let's not over-complicate this. It means that you are not lost
for conversation when someone throws around phrases like
"pace call," "impact values," "speed ratings" and "Beyer
numbers."
Note: You don't have to know these definitions, but you need
to not be intimidated by the fact that you don't know.
You must also be willing to educate yourself in what you
may be missing.
2. You have enough Windows knowledge that you will
not be lost if you are told to "open MyComputer and
find the H5 folder."
Again, we are not asking much here. Simply put, if you are
helpless when it comes to your computer, you cannot expect
to find those answers in this manual or from us. It is simply
not within our scope or repsonsibility.
Note: There are plenty of places to get whatever computer
knowledge you might need and I guarantee that you
can get all you need for us with a 3-hour class at some
place like Comp-USA or Best Buy.
Getting Started
1.3
Introduction
Welcome to the HorseStreet Handicapper, the most powerful
handicapping software available anywhere, at any price.
What makes HSH such a powerful piece of software? All
programs are designed from the developer's opinion of the
best way to play the horses. HSH is no different in that
respect. However, I have been designing professional-grade
handicapping software since 1990. Simply put, my stuff is
the best.
What makes HSH so different is that I believe in flexibility.
Most software leads you down the handicapping path laid out
by the developer. If he is a pace handicapper that believes in
contenders, paceline selection and model interpretation in
that order then that is the way you are going to do it.
HSH is a highly flexible software. With flexibility comes a
degree of complexity. It is that complexity that makes the
learning curve steeper than most handicapping products.
Think of it this way: Most handicapping software leads you
down a single path. That path is whatever approach the
developer believed would sell. The good news is that you get
up and running very quickly. The bad news is that in just a
few days you have maxed out the flexibility of the software.
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You would like to do something just a little different, but
can't.
Think of HSH as a big circle. You are in the middle of the
circle with arrows pointing in all directions. The key to
understanding HSH is to not try to go in all directions at
once. Rather, choose a direction - you can get plenty of help
on that - and get started on the learning process. After you
have a direction that looks promising, you can add more
bells and whistles to your handicapping.
The difficult part (for some players) is standing in the middle
of that circle to begin with.
I like to say that around day three most players will throw
their hands in the air and ask, "What have I done?" By day
seven or eight the new concepts will sink in and they say,
"Ah - I get it now!"
This is a pattern that we have seen over and over.
Getting Started
Occasionally we get a new user who receives the software on
Thursday and is at the track with it on Saturday. As rare as
this is, even more rare is the user who honestly commits to
learning HSH, bothers to attend a beginner's class or two
and still cannot understand it. In fact, I have never had such
a person as a client.
So, roll up your sleeves and get ready for an adventure into
horse racing.
"The flag is up... and... they're off!"
1.4
How to Use This Manual
I wish I could say, "Just read the Getting Started section of
this manual and you can figure the rest out as you go along.
In a way, I suppose you could but my telephone would just
ring off the hook and the ultimate result would wind up with
you and me reading the manual together. So, you might as
well just accept the fact that you're going to have to dive
into this yourself and figure it out.
Note: That does not mean we just leave you stranded. It
means that our job is to provide the teaching and your
job is to provide the learning. If you are "lost," we'll
help you "get found."
There is a recommended path and even a few shortcuts you
can take.
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New Users
If you are a new user you should begin with Tutorial 1:
Downloading and Importing and continue with the tutorials in
order until you feel that you've got a good grasp of HSH's
functionality and are ready to try something specific.
The handicapping tutorials are designed to teach features of
the programming as well as viable approaches that you may
wish to expand upon later. As you progress through these
handicapping tutorials, you will learn about Analysts,
Experts, Filters, PickMaster, Objects, IV Tables and a whole
lot more.
I would strongly suggest just diving into one of the higherlevel tutorials before you are ready. Try to be patient as you
work through these tutorials and you will learn all you need
to know in an amazingly short period of time.
Experienced Users
If you are an experienced HSH user and just trying to figure
out the new features in H5, just peruse the more advanced
tutorials for anything that strikes you as interesting and dive
Getting Started
in. Don't forget the Articles and Papers section.
1.5
Icons Used in This Manual
If you could see me writing this manual, you'd see me sitting
at my computer muttering to myself. It is just a huge
project. As I wrote it, I realized that reading and digesting
the material was almost as big a job as the writing. The
icons I have chosen should make that job a little easier.
Here is a list of icons I used in this manual:
Tips and Tricks are extra information - something that may
not be absolutely necessary to know at that point but will
come in handy later.
Warnings are just that: things that you need to be careful
about or common mistakes that people make.
Whenever you see the Remember This icon, be sure to
make at least a mental note of what you read because it will
either be very important later or you will use it often.
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Make Sure That You Get This usually means that the
section you are reading must be understood because without
it you will be lost later.
The Logical Question icon is an attempt on my part to play
mind reader with you by anticipating your question.
Open Web Page means just that: open the page in your
browser.
Note: Generally, it is a good idea if you open the web page in
its own tab or browser window. This way you will still be
able to read this document.
The Do This Now icon means to take whatever action you
are instructed to do. The format for a Do It Now Command is
big/bold/underline.
Example:
Run HSJ
The Important Concept icon is almost interchangeable
with "Get This" but generally denotes something on a more
philosophical level as opposed to understanding how the
program operates.
Getting Started
The New icon indicates something that is new in this version
of HSH.
When you see this mug staring at you it means he has
something to say. Since he is in possession of some amount
of knowledge on the subject at hand, it would be a good idea
if you were to heed his advice.
Note: A rather handsome chap, don't you think? Amazingly,
he looks just like my father and even more like my
father's son.
1.6
My Beliefs
Enter topic text here.
19
Top Level Intro
Part
II
Tutorial 1: Downloading and Importing
2
This tutorial covers all facets of data management in HSH. Now,
I know that downloading and importing data is not what you're
here for - you want to HANDICAP! - but trust me on this... you
really need to understand this stuff first.
That's why I put it into this tutorial.
Agenda
1.HSH Actually Two Programs
2.Downloading Past Performances
3.Download All Available PPs & Charts
4.Importing Past Performances
5.Importing Charts
6.Posting Races To The Model
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2.1
HSH Actually Two Programs
The HorseStreet Handicapper is actually two
programs: One to handicap with and the other
to manage data import.
Make sure
you
understand
the data flow
completely!
HSJ, or The HorseStreet Junction, is the program used to get
data into the system. That's what we're going to discuss here.
Do not be surprised if you receive this error:
This is because HSJ and HSH cannot be run at the same time.
(They share a bunch of files and could easily mess something
up.)
So, if HSH is running and you try to run HSJ, HSH will be
forced closed. The same thing happens the other way around.
It is always a better idea to close the program yourself.
HSH Data Flow
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The data from Handicapper's Data Warehouse (HDW) always
downloads into the same folder: c:\Hdw_Hsh.
Past Performance Files
25
HDW Past Performance files contain raw data in a binary format. You
cannot read or translate these files with any other program than HSJ.
These files are "imported" into HSH daily files using the HSJ program.
Note: These files are commonly referred to as "Previous Day" files because
they are stored in the PrevDays folder.
In the HSH data structure, all the races for one day are stored in a single
zip file. This allows the user to easy switch from one race to another
while managing his playing day.
Chart Files
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The HDW Chart files are imported into the current HSH Previous Day files.
HSH Daily Files With Results
Daily files with results may then be added to the HSH
database.
2.2
Downloading Past Performances
All our data comes from Handicapper's Data
Warehouse - "HDW."
We download the Past Performances (PPs)
and Charts manually via the internet using our
browser of choice. A broadband connection is
imperative.
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You can download as many as 75 files at once,
so, if you are behind a day or two, you can
usually catch up in a single download.
Note that the browser always puts the files in
the same place (so that HSJ can find them):
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2.2.1
Download All Available PPs & Charts
Download All Available PPs and
Charts from Handicapper's Data
Warehouse now.
Note: Do not continue until you have done this!
You can always find the HDW link by clicking the icon on the end of the
HSJ toolbar.
2.3
Importing Past Performances
1. Run HSJ.
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Note: If you have not already done so, import some PPs and charts from
HDW.
2. Click PPs button on the toolbar.
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The settings on this screen are critical! Make
sure that your settings look like mine!
In this example I am importing 5 days of races. The "Go"
button gets things started.
This assumes that you have already downloaded these days
from HDW!
You may import as many days as you have downloaded, but
only within a single year.
Note: In other words, you may not import through Dec. 31/
Jan. 1
3. Set your window to import at
least a few days of races and hit
the "Go" button.
The system will run for awhile - you can watch the progress
- and when it is finished a "daily file" will have been created
for each individual day you imported. When the import has
been completed, you will see this dialog box appear:
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2.4
Importing Charts
Importing charts works just like importing Past Performances:
1. Download from HDW
2. Import using HSJ
(Notice how we're real big on acronyms?)
1. Run HSJ.
(if it isn't already running.)
Note: If you have not already done so, download some PPs and
charts from HDW, then import the PPs.
2. Click the "Charts" button on the
toolbar.
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Set the dates to reflect the days you have already imported PPs
for and click the "Go" button.
In the normal course of using the system, you will (logically) import
yesterday's PPs, today's PPs, then yesterday's charts. That is why the system
defaults to precisely those settings when you import PPs. Whatever dates were
set in the import PPs process will be held in memory for the import charts
process.
In other words, normally, these two dates will be yesterday and today.
Since you don't yet have today's charts available (Boy, what I could do with
just a single day of those.), the "day -1" button will easily change the date to
what you need: yesterday-to-yesterday.
The import-charts process runs faster than importing PPs
because there isn't as much work to do.
Once the process is complete, you will see this dialog box:
2.5
Posting Races To The Model
Model is our word for the queryable HSH database. It is what
drives many of our handicapping approaches.
After a race has results, it is ready to be posted to the
database. Many of our users have models that go back as far
as June, 2001 and contain more than 350,000 races!
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Even if you do not play a track, you should (logically) download it every
day. The time may come when you want that data and, you are paying
for it, after all. With today's high-speed internet connections it just
makes good sense to take it all.
1. Run HSJ.
(if it isn't already running.)
Note: If you have not already done so, download some PPs and
charts from HDW, then import the PPs.
Importing Charts
2. Click "Post" button on the toolbar.
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There is not much to this screen other than the dates. Just make
sure they are right and click "Go."
Unlike importing PPs or charts, races may be posted from any date to any
other date. That is, you may even import multiple years.
The posting process runs much faster than importing. When
the process is complete you will, once again, see a dialog box.
How can I tell how many races have been posted to the database?
That's easy. Just Check the Model Status.
When you do, you will immediately see the races we have posted.
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Top Level Intro
Part
III
Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH
3
In this tutorial you will get your first glimpse of The
HorseStreet Handicapper. First, we'll make sure that the
program is setup correctly and then we'll explore the basic
navigation of the program through a simple analyst. We'll even
handicap a few races.
Agenda
Run HSH
Setting Preferences
Setting MyTracks
Open a Previous Day
HQ
Handicapping a Race: Contenders
SAR01: Simple Handicapping
CRC02: The Results Window
SAR02: The MyHandicapping button
Okay, so we're coming along here. In the next tutorial we'll pick
up where we left off here so remember your place.
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3.1
Run HSH
1. Run HSH.
Look for the HSH shortcut on your desktop. Open it to run
HSH.
3.2
47
Setting Preferences
In this section we will only discuss the Preference items that need to be
changed now. There are other settings that you may be interested in which
are outside the scope of this tutorial. Check out the Settings chapter.
Remember, grayed-out is normal because we do not yet have a day
open.
2. Open the Preferences screen.
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This opens up the Preferences screen.
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3. Set the time zone for you.
Note: As the tooltip says, the Time Zone Adjustment is the hours ahead (or
behind-for those of you in Hawaii and Australia) California time.
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4. Set Switches Tab
For now, just make the screen look like this. If you wish to delve deeper
into the settings, check out these links:
Which HQ?
Field Scaling
MyTracks
When you have completed these changes, click the "OK" button in the
lower-right corner to save them.
3.3
Setting MyTracks
You will recall that we just set the MyTracks system to "on" in
Preferences. Next we are going to set up a few of your favorite
tracks so that when you are setting up your playing day, the
system can pare down the races shown in the Handicapper's
HQ.
5. Open the Tracks List.
This is a very wide screen and quite busy. We will concentrate
on what we need to change in this tutorial. You can find more
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information on the Tracks List in the appendix.
Our primary concern here is turning on the tracks which will be
referred to as "MyTracks." And there isn't much to it.
This button is known as a "toggle." If a setting
is "off" clicking the button will turn it "on." If
the setting is currently "on," clicking it will turn
it off.
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Learn this toggle-thing right now because we
use it all over the program.
6. Turn Crc, Dmr and Sar on and turn
AP off.
Notice how you can show only the tracks set as "My Track" with
the check box in the upper right.
That is all for now. In a later section we will work on other track
settings.
3.4
Open a Previous Day
The next step is to open a day that we have previously imported.
Since I have no idea when you began downloading I have included two days
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from September, 2007 in your installation.
We are going to handicap September 1st, 2007, so let's open that day.
7. Open September 1st, 2007.
There isn't much to this. Just type in the date and click "Go."
Look how things come to life! No more grayed-out menu items!
Let's go to the races!
Notes: You can find more information about Open Day.
3.5
HQ
Time to set up our race day. In this step we are going to tag the
races we are interested in handicapping from our three favorite
tracks: Crc, Dmr and Sar.
8. Open the Handicapper's
Headquarters.
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The HQ begins by loading all of today's races and setting
them to "watch." The first thing we need to do is set the
races to be only those from the tracks we are interested in.
9. Switch to the "By RaceID" tab.
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10. Click the "Only My Tracks"
button.
11. Check the "Watched Only" box.
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12. Switch back to the "By Post"
tab.
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Now our racing day is set.
Notes: For more information see HQ.
3.6
Handicapping a Race
Now it's time to jump right into the handicapping! We will be
using a simple "analyst" to do our handicapping for us. In future
tutorials we will delve into how analysts work and make our own,
but for now, I just want you to see how easy it is to get good
selections from HSH.
And before anyone jumps to the assumption that I have seeded
these results... please, give me a little credit. First, I know that
you are not so shallow as to become convinced that a particular
approach works based upon a few races.
Second, I will save anyone the trouble by simply telling you that I
would be very surprised if this particular analyst was profitable in
the long term.
CRC01 - September 1st, 2007
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12. Open the CRC 1st race.
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With the CRC01 race selected, click the "Open Race" button.
The Race Window for this race will open.
As you can see, there is a lot to this window. We're going to cover a little of it
here - just what we need. We'll get to the rest later. But, if you've a mind to dig
deeper right now, just check out the entries in the "How Do I...?" section titled,
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Race Window.
Contenders
First, we designate two different kinds of contenders:
"C" or Prime Contenders
The top 3 or 4 horses in each field based upon field size. (3 in a field of 7 or
less)
"f" or Front Half
This represents the horses that are not prime contenders but still fall into the "
front half." Technically, our definition of "front half" is ½ field plus 1 horse.
Notice that we do not actually select contenders. They are simply the top horses in
the field for probability.
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Our experience is that when one looks at field-size specific, rank, impact value tables,
there is a distinct drop in IV at precisely ½field+1 rank. It is so noticeable that we
carried it over into our handicapping. Our expectation is that between 84% and 92%
of the races will be won by FH horses.
So, in this race we believe that the 4 and 5 horses have very little chance of winning
the race; that perhaps even their 9% and 2% probabilities are over-rated a bit. We'll
begin our elimination process by tossing the 4 & 5.
Our experience also indicates that most of the winners come from our top 3 horses,
regardless of whether or not the field warrants a 4th contender. So, we'll just
eliminate that 4th contender from consideration as well.
Note: We are actually considering re-defining the word "contender" to mean "top 3"
instead of the current definition.
See the "Gr" column along the right edge?
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That column is the "Grade" column.
The primary purpose of grades are to allow us to sort the better bets to the top
without splitting hairs too finely. That is, suppose we want to make our selections
based upon $Net and Probability. Further suppose we have two horses:
Horse A
Horse B
$2.12
$2.11
9% A32% A-
In the strictest sense of the word, Horse A is the better bet. But do we really want
to give up 23% winners in order to gain an $0.01 of $net? I think not. Instead we
introduce the concept of "grades." Since both of these animals fall into the same
grade category, "A-", we can sort by grade and hit rate and accomplish what we
desire.
So, what we actually see in this race is:
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Relative Value- Betting the best $net among your contenders is far better than
betting the worst $net among your contenders.
Now, I know that this does not sound earth shattering but consider the implications
for a moment.
Imagine you have run an IV Table of horses that ranked 1st-3rd for Projected Speed
Rating (PSR) and found that the group as a whole had a $net of $1.90. Some of those
horses were really "bad bets" (because they lost) and others were "good
bets" (because they won). Of course, that is easy to determine after the race but
more difficult to determine before the race is run.
Is it safe to assume that the best bet (of the subset) in each
individual race (using a criteria other than PSR) would outperform the
worst (of the subset) in the long run?
In other words, if I consistently pick the best $net/grade horses over the worst
$net/grades will I be better off than if I played them all?
The answer is, of course, "yes." That is Relative Value.
The degree to which our handicapping approach works in this kind of race determines
whether or not our strategy will be profitable in the long run.
So, in this race we want the best 2 bets of our top 3.
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That would be 1 & 3. Understand that we are not saying that the 6 cannot win. We are
saying that we'll bet against him winning because he is the most likely bad bet among
our contenders.
13. Open the Results window from the toolbar
to see the results for this race.
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Not that it was a tough race, but our contenders did well.
14. Click the "Finish" button in the Race
Window to close it and remove the race from
the HQ list.
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When you click back into the HQ you will see the CRC01 race is removed from
the list. We're ready for more races!
3.7
SAR01
We'll go through this next race quickly and then begin adding features to our
handicapping.
15. Open the SAR01 race from the HQ.
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You know, there is a natural inclination to just want to bet all those A+ horses and
forget the rest. Listen... if it was that easy, everyone who made an odds line would
simply capitalize on it by playing all their 5/2's that go off at 3/1 or higher. Ever
notice how that just doesn't seem to work?
So, here we are, isolating instead on just those top 3 horses and trying to pick the
best of those. Be aware that these first two races have both been races where the
top 3 picks were also the top 3 public choices. That is usually the earmark of a race
that is not the best place to look for plays. But we'll talk about that later. Let's get
down to business in this race.
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We settle on the 11 and the 1 only to get beaten (again) by our other contender.
Don't forget to click "Finish" to close the race window.
3.8
CRC02
16. Open the CRC02 from the HQ.
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Alright! Finally a race to get excited about! Look at the difference between this race
and the previous 2 races in terms of betting opportunity. Here we have a race where
the favorite and the 3rd choice are not among our top 3!
So, we put our money on the 7 & 9...
17. Open the Results window by clicking the
"WPS" button on the toolbar.
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If you can find a spot on the screen for it, leave the Results window open all the time. Just
clicking within the window will switch it to the Open Race.
Now, this is what I am talking about! A highly playable race - what I would call an "A+
race," but we'll get to that later - and we score with a cold trifecta.
Don't forget to close the Race window by clicking "Finish."
3.9
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SAR02
17. Open SAR02 in the HQ.
Note: I am sure you know how to do this but if not, check back to the previous race
for a picture.
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This race presents an interesting problem for the handicapper. There are 3 firsttime starters (FTS) in this race. This particular analyst simply is not prepared to
handle them very well. His approach rates them so poorly that they come up with
zero probabilities and that just cannot be right.
So, what are we to do about this? How about we add our own handicapping to this
race on these 3 horses?
18. Click the My Handicapping button.
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This feature is very easy to use. In this case we want to adjust the
probabilities of the 3 FTS in the race (3, 4 & 7)...
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... but how much should we adjust them? What probabilities should they be
given? I don't know and I really don't want to do any handicapping, so what is
the answer?
This is a very common problem. You are handicapping a race and you really just don't
have an opinion about a horse beyond the fact that you don't have any reason to bet
him.
Look at Golden Weekend. He is 5/2. Now, we could assign him a win percentage based
upon what 5/2 horses normally do, but FTS probably under perform the average 5/2
horse. We could do a study of 5/2 FTS and plug in that probability. we could even do
a study of 5/2 FTS at SAR and plug that number in.
Here is the solution:
We will get a rough idea of what FTS-2yr olds do at SAR when they go off at
approximately 5/2. (We'll cover how to do this in another tutorial.)
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As you can see, they hold their own quite nicely. However, before we grab that 31%
figure and pop it in as his probability, consider that if he gets bet down to 2/1
shouldn't his win percentage go up?
Instead, let's use his $net and let the software do the work!
If we plug in $1.95 as his $net, the system will always figure out what his win
probability must be to fulfill a $1.95 return at his current odds.
Number 4, Sir Jock, is currently 9/1. That translates to a $1.01 $net.
Note: The categories in the table end at the odds shown. Thus, the "9/1" category
includes 7.00/1 up to 9.99/1.
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Number 7, Aqab, is 10/1, a better category, at $1.72.
19. Enter those values into the "My $Nets"
column and check the "Use Locks" box.
20. Click "Save."
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When we return to the handicapping window we see that nothing has changed. But it
will.
21. Click the "Hcp" button.
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Well, the picture of this race has surely changed. We went from a race that looked
like a grade A race - with a 5/2 horse below-the-fold (as I call it) to a less
attractive, yet more likely outcome.
And who are the logical plays in this race? Why the 3 & 8 are obvious.
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22. Close the Race window with "Finish."
Top Level Intro
Part
IV
Tutorial 3: More Handicapping
4
As we continue to progress through these races, we will add more
and more power, both to the handicapping and the program
features.
Agenda
Okay, so we're coming along here. In the next tutorial we'll pick
up where we left off here so remember your place.
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4.1
CRC03
We've played 4 races thus far and our performance has been excellent.
I have been investing $20 in each race and dutching our plays. This is from our
Studies window - where I have had the system automatically capture our bets. We'll
get to that in the next tutorial. For now, let's get back to the handicapping.
If HSH is not running, please run it now.
Your HQ should look like this:
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1. Open CRC03 in the HQ.
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Have you noticed that we have handicapped 4 races without even looking at the
conditions of the races? Let's remedy that right now.
2. Click the "Race Cnd" button on the toolbar.
There isn't much to this window - it's just that: a window that shows the conditions
for the current race. The cool thing about this window (and most of the others in
HSH) is that you place them somewhere on your screen and whenever you click inside
the window the data switches to the race with focus.
Back to the CRC03.
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Look at that 3/5 favorite! We don't think much of him.
I know by now you've got the handicapping approach I am using whipped - after all,
there isn't much to that. Time to move on to betting.
3. Switch to the Win Dutch tab and then click
the Reset button in the lower-right corner.
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Let's take a closer look at this screen. First, the upper portion of the Text Box:
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Now this screen can be a little confusing until you realize that you are looking at two
lists.
The list on the left, known as the "In List," contains all the horses you have bet in this
race thus far. They are "in." (As of now we have not bet anyone in this race so the In
List is blank.
The list on the right, the "Out List," are the horses still available to bet. They are
"out."
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So, what we want to do is to slice and dice the list on the right while we add horses.
4. Click the "Reset" button just to be sure that
things are at the starting point.
Here is my betting strategy:
· Consider only my top 3 probability horses.
· Play the best 2 grades of those horses.
· Break ties based upon win probability.
· Bet $20 in each race.
· Dutch the 2 horses so that no matter which wins I will get back the same amount.
· If the best bet is below 1/2 I want to play him as a single.
· If the 2nd bet is so low as to take me below 1/2 (which is my target) I want to make
sure I get 1/2 if the top horse wins.
Here is how we accomplish this:
5. Check the "Show What" box to "Cont."
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See how the blank lines serve as a remind that there are horses being passed by?
See how the current sort is by grade? In this case we have all we need to know right
in front of us. Our top 3, sorted by grade. And they are at healthy odds so we do not
need to worry about returning to little.
6. Click the "Bet Top" button.
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See how the 7 horse moved over to the Bet List and was removed from the Available
List?
See how the entire $20 was wagered on him?
Now we need to bet the new top horse.
7. Click the "Bet Top" button again.
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See how the 1 horse has been added to the list and the money re-distributed?
Let's look at the rest of the text box now.
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That is all there is to it.
Oh. Except for the results to this race.
Well, we don't cash but certainly had the right idea, especially with that 3/5 favorite
that we played against. (This is a perfect opportunity to discuss the Play Against
Favorite strategy but I am going to leave that for another chapter. Look it up now if
you'd care to - the logic is irrefutable.)
Don't forget to click "Finish" in the lower right corner.
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4.2
SAR03
In this race we will look at correcting an obviously bad assessment of a horse much
like we did in the SAR02, the FTS race from Tutorial 2.
8. Open the SAR03 race from the HQ.
The handicapping of this race seems so simple, but here is a 2/1 favorite at the very
bottom. This simply cannot be right.
Our goal with HSH is to automate as much of the handicapping as possible. (Okay - in
my case I automate all of the handicapping.)
But a more important goal is to get it right.
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Remember that we are using a simple (and perhaps a little weak) handicapping approach
- one that leaves things out. As you saw in the SAR02 race it did a very poor job of
handicapping first-time starters. That is because it is treating FTS just like any other
horse. Since a FTS has no races, it has no speed ratings. Where does a horse with no
speed ratings rank for speed ratings? At the very bottom of all the horses that have
speed ratings.
The favorite in this race, Vitruvius, is not a FTS. In fact, he has raced twice, and won
both races:
The issue is that the handicapping approach we are using does not like this horse very
much. (This particular analyst is uses two of our most powerful factors, Rtg and PSR.)
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Understand I am not apologizing for the numbers in this race - the favorite did not
win - but that is not the point. The point is...
There has not been a favorite since the beginning of time
that was only a $0.17 $net!
The concept I am addressing here is called "Not That Bad" (
NTB).
When people talk about "throwing out a favorite," they generally mean "I don't think
the favorite is a good bet" or "I don't want to bet the favorite" or "I don't think the
favorite is worth 4/5." That does not mean the favorite cannot win the race a
significant part of the time.
Listen, anyone can win the race. We are talking about who is likely to win the race and,
more specifically, how likely are they to do so?
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As a general rule of thumb, when you see favorites (or any
low-priced horse for that matter) with $nets under $1.20,
they are probably very underrated.
A logical question you might ask is, "Since I am not going to play this horse
anyway, why should I bother to make any correction?"
The answer is that since this horse is underrated, his probability points have been
redistributed among the other horses. In other words, they are overrated.
Permit me to give you a great way to handle such a situation.
Simply lock in a $net of $1.20 for this horse and let it be.
9. Click the "My Handicapping" button.
Make the 4 horse $1.20. Check the "Use Locks" box and "Save."
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Don't forget to re-handicap the race.
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The top three are the 3-4-6 when we had the 3-6-8 before. But the important
difference is that the race is probably more accurately rated than before. And, when
one looks at this race they no longer see the tremendous betting opportunity that
they saw before with a favorite who was a virtual "throw out."
10. Switch to the Win Dutch tab.
11. Click "Reset" and "Cont."
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Time to make our bets. But we have a small problem. Recall that we only want to
consider our top 3 horses. You can eyeball the probabilities and see that the 8 is the
4th-best horse for probability and, therefore, not to be considered. How do we bet
from the top down and bypass the 8?
The easiest way is to bet the top 3 and then remove the 8.
12. Click "Bet Top" 3 times.
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So now we have an extra horse. We need to remove the 8. That is what the "Action"
section (right-edge) is for and it is as easy as 1-2-3.
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13. Cancel the 8 using the above steps.
And now things are as they should be.
But there's got to be a better way! There is. Automatic betting. Next race.
Oh. Click Finish on the SAR03.
4.3
CRC04
This is an important part of the tutorial because it is where we introduce a concept OOU. (What's a "concept?" You'll have to take the tutorial to find out.)
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14. Open the CRC04 race from the HQ.
15. Open the Race Conditions (from the toolbar).
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Uh-oh. More of those pesky first-time starters. Remember how last time I showed you
an IV Table of FTS at different odds levels? Well, this time we're going to take a look
at how I actually studied those races. (We're not going to spend a lot of time on it that is for another tutorial down the road.)
Let's go look at a Filter, shall we?
16. Click the "Filt" button on the toolbar to open
the Filters browse.
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Note: Your browse will probably show more filters than seen here as more will be added
as this manual is expanded.
125
Let's look inside this "filter" to see how it works.
17. Click the "Change" button to open the filter.
Follow along on the tabs as we go.
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Essentially, a filter is a template for filtering races from our database. The template
layout makes it extremely easy to find the types of races you are looking for.
Here we have set date range, circuit, track...
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128
... surface, distance range...
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... race type and age.
18. Click "OK" to close the filter.
When we ran the filter against the database we found 418 races.
Do not run this Filter or the IV Tables we are about to discuss!
These IV Tables were run against a large database of over 340,000 races! If you
run them against your current database you will find far fewer races and destroy
the data in these tables!
You may certainly look into the IV Table structures and follow along but do not
run these filters!
19. With the CRC.D.sp.MS.2 filter selected, click
the IV Tables tab.
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This is how I get the numbers to plug into the "questionable" horses.
Do you have to do this to win? Probably not. But if you want the best answers, you look
for the right data.
Back to our race...
We've got to work on these FTS and there is also a problem with the favorite being way
too low as well.
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20. Click the "My Handicapping" button.
I have punched in the appropriate $nets from the IV categories above. Remember that
each category ends with that odds range. Thus, the 9/1 category actually starts where
the previous category ends (7.00:1) and goes to the top of 9/1 (9.99:1).
21. Punch in the values above, "save" and "Hcp."
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Well, things are looking better but there is still a huge problem with this 1/3 favorite.
Listen... odds-on horses are typically the most under-bet horses at the track
(statistically speaking). We've obviously got this one wrong.
Concept: Odds-on are Underrated! (OOU)
This means that the very nature of odds-on horses is that they will be underrated. This
is because even horses that are first for everything cannot get enough credit for how
good they are.
Look at this horse on our composite screen...
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... Even though he is much the best, it is just almost impossible for an odds-on horse to
get enough credit using a simple strategy.
Remember, we are using a simple strategy here. As we build more complex strategies,
we can address this. (That is for later tutorials.) Meantime, we need to address this
problem.
How do we do it? We ask the question, "How does an odds-on horse usually do in a race
like this one?" and we answer it with the appropriate IV table.
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Remember the filter we were working with that matched this race? (CRC.D.sp.MS.2)
Well, this is the IV Table for Favorites (no FTS) at the different odds ranges. I have
sub-totaled the odds-on horses below.
I would never wager against a horse that looks like this one does in the Composites
(i.e. almost all 1's) without punching in the IV Table $net.
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So, back to the My Handicapping to lock in this guy at $2.14. He becomes virtually an
automatic play.
22. Open My Handicapping and correct the $net
on the 1, save, hcp.
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Boy, we are a long way from where we started. And the best is yet to come because
Tripplite becomes a single!
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Now, I know that there will be people reading this thinking, "What's the big deal? So,
you picked a 1/3 horse."
But it is a big deal. We singled a horse for $20 and got back $26 instead of losing $20.
That is a $26 turn around. You want to know where your ROI goes? It is by assuming
that horses like this are not good bets or, worse yet, are always bad bets.
So, when does a horse need to be adjusted? And what about the 6 & 8 horses who got
adjusted down to a ridiculously low $net? Do we adjust everyone in the field?
My experience is that you begin adjusting from the obviously wrong horses...
· FTS given near-zero chances
· Odds-on horses that have lots of 1's in Composites
· If you haven't adjusted anyone yet, consider low-priced "zeroes"
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And remember, just because a low-odds horse has a low $net does not mean he needs to
be adjusted. He needs to be adjusted when, like Tripplite, he is as good as he can be and
still does not show as good enough.
And what if Tripplite hadn't looked so good? Back in the CRC01 race...
... Yelt was 6/5. We did not adjust him.
That's because he wasn't all 1's. (He did win the race, but we had no reason to believe
he was underrated.)
What about Mannington in the CRC03?
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He was on top but not as impressive as Tripplite. 3 2's, a couple of blanks and a 4 in
PSR! We did right to not adjust him.
Finish the race.
Top Level Intro
Part
V
142
5
Sample Handicappers
5.1
Bill: Basic Value Handicapper
Top Level Intro
Part
VI
144
6
Articles and Papers
6.1
Handicapping vs. Exploitation
6.2
Pars vs. No-Pars
6.3
Reading List
6.4
Relative Value
Top Level Intro
Part
VII
146
7
How Do I... ?
7.1
Run HSH?
1. Run HSH.
Look for the HSH shortcut on your desktop. Open it to run
HSH.
Do not be surprised if you receive this error:
How Do I... ?
This is because HSJ and HSH cannot be run at the same
time. (They share a bunch of files and could easily mess
something up.)
So, if HSJ is running and you try to run HSH, HSJ will be
forced closed. The same thing happens the other way
around. It is always a better idea to close the program
yourself.
7.2
Run HSJ?
1. Run HSJ.
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Look for the HSJ shortcut on your desktop. Open it to run
HSJ.
7.3
Use the Auto-Downloader?
How Do I... ?
7.4
Database Topics
7.4.1
Check Model Status?
1. Run HSJ
Run HSJ?
2. Click the "Model" (Mdl) button on
the toolbar.
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7.4.2
Manage Circuits?
7.5
Analyst Topics
7.5.1
WPS Betting Systems
How Do I... ?
7.6
Race Day Topics
7.6.1
HQ
Post Time
Tab
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How Do I... ?
RaceID Tab
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7.6.2
Open Day
How Do I... ?
7.6.3
Psuedo Bet?
7.6.4
Race Conditions Window
7.6.5
Screen Layout Suggestions
Listen... you guys are spending a significant amount of money to
play the races. You've got costs for downloads. You purchase
books and instructional materials. You even spent money on great
software. Why would you go cheap on the computer system you
use to handicap?
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Do yourself a favor - buy yourself a dual-head video card and a
pair of wide, 22-inch monitors. You can get that whole setup for
around $700.
Too much? How about a pair of 20" wide monitors from Costco?
That is around $400.
Still too much? Fine. How about a pair of 19" standard monitors?
That's about $300.
The dual-head video card is between $40-120, depending upon
what you buy and where you shop.
These are just ideas. You will certainly find what is most
comfortable for you.
2 Computers, 2 Wide Monitors (1680 x
1050)
How Do I... ?
1 Computer, 2 Wide Monitors (1680 x 1050)
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1 Monitor (normal or wide)
How Do I... ?
7.6.6
Results Window
159
160
How Do I... ?
161
162
7.7
Race Window
T
o
How Do I... ?
p
L
ef
t
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164
T
o
p
Ri
g
ht
How Do I... ?
B
ot
to
m
7.7.1
Analyst Tab
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7.7.1.1
Probabilitities Tab
This is a very busy window. First, let's concentrate on the columns within
the text box.
T
How Do I... ?
e
xt
B
o
x
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B
ut
to
n
s
7.7.1.2
Win Dutch Tab
How Do I... ?
Upper-Left
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170
Upper-Right
How Do I... ?
Right Edge
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"Actions"
·
·
·
·
·
Ret$ - Make bet on Prg return Amount.
Ret% - Make bet on Prg return percent of total bet in race equal to Amount.
Bet$ - Bet Amount on Prg.
Bet% - Bet percentage of total bet in race equal to Amount.
Cancel - Cancel the bet on Prg.
How Do I... ?
7.8
Contact HorseStreet?
HorseStreet Publications
1425 Bronze Canyon Drive
Reno, NV 89521
Telephone
Fax
emails
Office Hours
Mon-Thu
Fri
(775) 825.0260
(775) 825.4109
TechSupport@HorseStreet.com
Sales@HorseStreet.com
DaveSchwartz@HorseStreet.com
8am to 4:30pm
8am to 10am
Note: Okay, the truth is that we are open way more often
than this, but these are our posted hours.
If you have
sent us an
email...
We generally respond very quickly to emails, often in a
matter of minutes and rarely more than a few hours*.
We never ignore anyone.
If you have sent an email and not received a reply from us
in 72 hours, your email probably wound up in a SPAM
folder. Please call us so that we may put you on our "notspam" list as well as address your issue.
*The only exception would be if we are on vacation which is
always posted on our BBS (in announcements).
173
Top Level Intro
Part
VIII
Appendix
8
Appendix
8.1
Handicapping Objects
8.2
Tracks List
175
Top Level Intro
Part
IX
Glossary
9
Glossary
9.1
Glossary A-D
$net
$Net is the average return per $2 wager. The actual formula
is:
$net= TotalReturn ÷ TotalWagers
This assumes that all wagers are for $2.00.
An alternative formula is:
$net= TotalReturn ÷ TotalWagered x 2
analyst
An analyst is a handicapping device designed to facilitate an
automatic or semi-automatic handicapping process. An
analyst may contain handicapping objects, IV Tables,
screens and other handicapping tools.
Concept
A Concept is an approach or an idea that adds value to your
handicapping. All concepts reduce to an abbreviation such
as "OOU" (Odds-On Underrated). This allows us to develop
an HSH vernacular.
contenders The top 4 horses in a field (by probability). Top 3 in a field
of 7 or less.
CSV
Comma separated variable. A file format compatible with
Excel and many other programs. Also referred to as
"comma-delimited."
CSV Export
Dutch
Dutching is a method of determining the correct amount to
wager on each of multiple wagers, so that no matter which
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wager wins one returns the same amount of money.
9.2
Glossary E-H
E-S-P
Refers to "Early-Sustained-Presser" running style
designations.
In our system there are 5 designated running styles:
1
2
3
4
5
ES Points
Field
Scaling
FH
Filter
front half
grades
E
EP
P
M
C
Early
Early-Presser
Presser
Mid-Pack
Closer
7-8 pts
4-6 pts
2-3 pts
1 pt
0 pts
Early Speed Points. A system for assigning points based upon
recent 1st-call running positions and lengths behind to
determine who the likely front runners in the race are.
Developed by Dr. William Quirin.
Field Scaling is a proprietary method of assigning points to
rankings which takes into account both field size and ordinal
rank.
See "front half."
A template for filtering races from the database.
Stands for "front half of the field plus one." In a 10-horse
field this would be 6 horses; in a 7-horse field it would be 4
horses.
Grades have several meanings in HSH but the most common
meaning addresses the relative profitability of the horses on
a $net scale. The $net thresholds for each grade level (A+ to
Glossary
F) are set in Preferences.
The Handicapper's Headquarters (or simply "HQ") is the
Handicappe central point of the HSH user's day. It keeps all the races the
r's
user is interested in playing (i.e. "watch races") ordered by
Headquarte current post time.
rs
A handicapping object (also referred to simply as an "object")
handicappi is a multi-dimensional geometric shape used to define the
ng object
strength of a horse. Each dimension of the object represents
a factor.
hit rate
See probability.
HQ
Handicapper's Headquarters
9.3
Glossary I-L
Impact
Value
An impact value is a formula that expresses the relative
chance of winning with a particular characteristic. The
formula is:
ImpactValue = Wins ÷ ExpectedWins
note: ExpectedWins is defined as the sum of 1/FieldSize for
each horse in the characteristic sample.
impact
An impact value table is a chart of factor values containing
value table the relative "impacts" of different classes within the factor.
IV table
large field
see impact value table.
For our purposes, a large field is defined as having 8 or
more betting interests.
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lock in
9.4
Refers to using My Handicapping to lock in one or more
horses probabilities or $nets.
Glossary M-P
My
A method of locking in a specific probability or $net for one
Handicappi or more particular horses in a race. All other probabilities
ng
are computed around these "locked" horses. See an
example: Tutorial 2: SAR02
MyTracks The MyTracks system allows the user to designate a group
of tracks as being "of interest" to him.
Note
The Note Button opens the Race Notes file for the currently
Button
open race in Windows notepad (or the user's word processor
of choice.
NTB
Stands for the "Never That Bad" concept.
OOU
Horses at low odds that come up with ridiculously low $nets
are never that bad.
Concept: Odds-On Underrated
Odds-on horses are consistently underrated by just about
any handicapping system. This is because it is very difficult
to give them fair credit - even if they are 1st in just about
everything.
Open Race The open race is the race that currently has focus.
PExW
Stands for Pool Expected Wins.
PIV
Stands for "pool impact value."
PAF
Betting strategy concept: Play Against Favorite
Glossary
Pool
Impact
Value
Whenever the favorite is a non-contender, play all
contenders against him.
Pool impact value is a formula that expresses the relative
chance of winning with a particular characteristic. The
formula is:
PIV = Wins ÷ PoolExpectedWins
note: PoolExpectedWins is defined as the sum of the pool
percentage for each horse in the characteristic sample..
Probability Chances of a horse winning a race or bet
PSR
Projected Speed Rating is a proprietary number created by
HDW's Jim Cramer. It is the speed rating that Cramer
believes the horse will achieve to day. Note that the number
is on Cramer's scale.
Strengths: A very powerful overall rating. Typically gets 2931% winners on the top horse in the field.
Weakness: Highly correlated with the public's betting habits.
The top horse will be favorite or second choice 84% of the
time.
9.5
Glossary Q-U
Race Notes Each race has a race notes file which contains screens which
the user has captured into it through the use of the Notes
button.
181
182
Notes: These "notes" buttons are spread throughout the
software. However, if you find a screen which does not
have one, you may simply open the notes for the race
(next paragraph) and manually paste the text into the
notes.
Race Notes may also refer to the "Note" button on the
toolbar.
Relative
Value
Relative Value is a concept pioneered by Dave Schwartz. It
is based upon the concept that, given a subset of horses
that produce some $Net, if one consistently wagers against
the worst $Net of those horses on an individual race basis,
the remaining horses should should an improvement in $net
above the entire sample.
Logical Question
Is it safe to assume that the best bet (of the subset) in each
individual race (using a criteria other than the subset itself)
would outperform the worst (of the subset) in the long run?
In other words, if I consistently pick the best $net/grade
horses over the worst $net/grades will I be better off than if
I played them all?
Glossary
Rtg
The answer is, of course, "yes." That's "relative value."
Stands for Composite Rating. It is a high-level composite
factor made up of 32 other factors weighted together.
Strength: Horses with good, recent speed, pace and form
ratings. Top horse is very close to break-even across all
races, all tracks.
Weakness: Past-class horses that have not been competitive
lately or have thrown less-than-competitive speed numbers.
Screen
Short for "user-defined screen." A screen is designed by the
user to display several fields upon demand. Screens are also
used to define the fields to be used in the CSV Export
function.
small field For our purposes, a small field is one having fewer than 8
betting interests.
Text Box
A text box is a display window which can be edited.
Generally it is easily added to the race notes or copied to
the Windows clipboard for pasting into another program.
9.6
Glossary V-Z
Watch List
The Watch List is the list of races that you are interested in
handicapping today. These races are tagged with a "W" in
the Handicapper's Headquarters.
183
Top Level Intro
Part
X
Racing Who's Who
10
Racing Who's Who
10.1
Quirin, Dr. William L.
10.2
Cramer, Jim
185
Top Level Intro
Part
XI
Settings
11
Settings
11.1
E-S-P Definitions
E-S-P
This setting uses the Quirin Early Speed Points to define E-SDefinitions P running styles.
The numbers represent the lowest ES point total that will
187
188
qualify for the category.
11.2
Grades
Settings
11.3
Notepad Width
Note Width The note width limits the size of screens when being placed
into a text file for the race. Most printers can only handle 7479 characters by default (in portrait mode).
The setting is changed in Preferences.
189
190
11.4
Odds Groups
Odds
Groups
Odds Groups are used in several places within the program
to categorize odds into A-B-D-C-E groups.
Each number represents the high range for that category.
Settings
Anything above "D" is an "E."
11.5
Time Zone
Time Zone
Adjustment
191
192
California= 0.00
Chicago = 2.00
New York=3.00
11.6
Which HQ?
Which HQ?
In HSH, we never remove anything. We still have users that
want to handicap using the HSH v3 "style," but with the
extra factors and improved factor integrity of the newest
version. This field denotes which Handicapper's
Headquarters paradigm to use: H3 or the H4/H5 style.
Settings
11.7
193
Word Processor
Word
Processor
You may should use the "Select Program" button to navigate to
your word processor of choice if you wish to change from
Notepad.
Top Level Intro
Part
XII
New Features in H5
12
New Features in H5
My Handicapping
This feature allows the user to add his own handicapping to
individual horses the race.
Tutorial 2: SAR02
195
196
Index
Early Speed 178
Early Speed Points 178
ES 178
ES points 47, 178
ESP 178
E-S-P 47, 178
-$$Net
177, 188
-A-
-F-
analyst 45, 177
assumptions 10
-BBetting Strategy
180
-C-
FH 63, 178
FH+1 178
field scaling 47, 178
filter 178
front half 63, 178
-G-
Concepts 177, 180
contenders 63, 177
Cramer, Jim 181
cRtg 183
CSV 177
CSV Export 177
-Ddisabled 10
disabled toolbar
Dr. Quirin 185
dutch 177
dutching 177
-E-
10
grades
grayed
178, 188
10
-HHandicapper's Data Warehouse 10
Handicapper's Headquarters 47, 178, 179
Handicapper's HQ 178
handicapping object 178, 179
handicapping objects 175
HDW 10
hit rate 179
HQ 47, 178, 179
Index
HSH
HSJ
22
22, 147
notes 180, 181
ntb 180
-I-
-O-
impact value 179
impact value table 179
installation 10
IV 179
IV table 179
object 178, 179
objects 175
odds 190
odds group 190
Odds Groups 47
Odds-on Underrated
OOU 180
open race 180
-Llarge field 179
lock in 180
locked 180
locked in 180
-Mmodel 39, 149
model status 39, 149
My Handicapping 87, 89, 180
my tracks 47, 50, 180
MyTracks 47, 50, 180
-Nnet 177
new features 17, 87, 89
Not That Bad 180
note button 180
notepad 193
197
180
-PPAF 180
PExW 180
PExWins 180
PIV 180, 181
Play Against Favorite 180
Pool Expected Wins 180
Pool Impact Value 180, 181
preferences 47
prime contenders 63
probability 180, 181
Projected Speed Rating 181
PSR 181
-QQuirin 185
Quirin, Dr. William L.
185
198
-R-
-W-
race conditions 155
race filter 178
race notes 181
Rating 183
Relative Value 63, 182
RelVal 182
results 159
Results window 159
RS 178
Rtg 183
Running Style 178
watch 183
watch list 183
Which HQ? 47
Win Dutch tab 168
win-place-show 159
word processor 193
W-P-S 159
-Sscreen 181, 183
small field 183
-Ttext box 166, 181, 183
text window 183
time 191
time zone 47, 191
-Uuser-defined screen
183
199
Endnotes 2... (after index)
Back Cover

HorseStreet Handicapper, v5

Transcription

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