Michael Pizzollaʼs 2010 Preakness Handicapping Magic Rant

Transcription

Michael Pizzollaʼs
2010 Preakness
Handicapping Magic Rant
Copyright ©2010 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved www.posttimedaily.com
From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
May 14, 2010
5:47 AM
Las Vegas
Dear Handicapper and Friend,
Time for the second jewel of the Triple Crown.
This year’s tempest in a teapot is the uproar over the catch phrase
‘Get Your Preak On’ for promoting the Preakness.
Who really cares about this stuff? I would have guess next to no
one, until I saw the number of articles written on this. Astounding.
Like clockwork, I got asked if I had the Derby.
Well, yes and no.
Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software™ had Super
Saver right on top.
Great.
Here’s what the screen shot looked like right out of the proverbial
box:
The good news is that Super Saver was indeed right on top. Pretty
impressive that Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software™
can take a race of 20 3 year olds going a mile and a quarter and
make that call.
Here’s the ‘no’ part of the yes and no.
The Black Magic line started at 11-1. That means that if the race
were run 12 times, Super Saver would win once.
At 8-1, it was an underlay.
End of story.
Yes, I know of the school of thought that every winner is an overlay,
spoken typically by those who have never made their living at the
track, or bet seriously.
Hobbyists.
Nothing wrong with that: in a way I long for those halcyon days
when I thought the game was as easy as picking enough winners,
outsmarting the ‘ignorant public’ by my brilliant technique, betting
horses regardless of odds, of true value.
You’ll notice from the Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper
Software™ screenshot that the second place horse, Ice Box, was
considerably far down on the line.
There goes the exotic bets I made. Yes, I allowed myself some
recreational bets on the Derby, and the tickets are now bookmarks.
In truth, it’s the kind of race that I’d pass in a couple of nanoseconds
on any other day.
One email I got wanted to know why I didn’t do a more extensive
analysis of the Derby.
Try as I might, I just couldn’t see the point of doing a raft of analysis
on a race that was a clear pass from a professional betting
viewpoint. Making value the central theme of your work will beting
to change the way you look at a race.
I’ve been talking a lot this year about a process of looking at
potential race investments that I call ValueCapping™.
It starts with the premise that value is the FIRST, not the last, thing
that must be considered in a race. As those of you who have
followed my work, I have advocated for years the concept of using
TWO lines for evaluating investments.
The first is the line from the numbers, patterns, pace scenarios, and
all of that from Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software™.
But whether you use that software or another, or whether you make
the line yourself by hand, your line is the starting point.
As important is the second line, the Contention Line. This is a line
that makes an estimation of what the public SHOULD do in a race.
The nuances of the two line approach would fill a book, but here’s
the basic insight:
Knowing what your opponent, the betting public, should do with a
horse from conventional handicapping procedures is a key to
understanding the betting in a race.
I used to think that racing nirvana was finding a horse that I made
3-1 on my line that was going off at 10-1.
How naive.
See, if that horse looks really good by conventional handicapping
technique, if that horse is also 3-1 on the Contention Line, and is
going off at 10-1, something’s not right.
On the other hand, if Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper
Software™ makes the horse 3-1 and the public should not like the
horse, reflected by a 12-1 Contention Line, say, and the horse goes
off at 10-1, then the overlay is an ‘expected’ overlay, and a potential
good investment.
Now, there’s a lot more to it, but those are the basics.
So in ValueCapping™, the analysis of the value question comes
FIRST, followed by an analysis of WHY there should be a price on
the horse or horses, and only then using non-conventional analysis,
or ValueCap™ factors, to see if there’s an outstanding investment
lurking.
What I advocate strongly to the Wizards on the Wizards’ Forum is
to make the mainstay of their betting portfolio the simple, clear, and
obvious races.
There are plenty of them, too many to waste time fooling around
with puzzles like most Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup races.
Sure, there are exceptions, but they are rare.
Here’s a couple of examples of simple value investments that
happened just yesterday, May 13, 2010, that several Wizards had
and posted about on the Forum.
The 2nd at Arlington had a horse right on top of Black Magic that
was 7/2 on the odds line and 11-1 on the Contention Line.
Not only that, it was the only horse in the race with a pattern, a
Type 2 (the T2 designation), and was a Reverser to boot.
On top of that, it was a Speed of Speed Horse in an unpressured
race.
How simple was it to spot this value investment by starting with the
value issues in the race?
See any overlays in the horses above random (the top 4 in this
case)? Only one.
$34.20 and a $160.40 exacta there for the taking. And several
Wizards did just that.
Apparently, judging by the show prices, more than one MOTO
jumped off the proverbial bridge on a 3-5 shot that was off since
March and dropping to $10,000 claiming after finishing within a
length at $30,000, and winning the race before that at $25,000.
Same day, May 13, 2010, Pimlico 6th race. 3 horses above the
random line, the favorite the 6 taking a similar negative drop in
class as the 4 in the Arlington race.
Again, the potential value sticks out like a sore thumb in this race,
and resulted in another value investment for several Wizards who
spotted this.
The negative dropper, the 6, finished 5th.
These happened just yesterday, in modest claiming races, and they
were just waiting to be had.
Not all of these win, of course, but at these prices your win
percentage does not need to be high for a wonderful profit to be
made. Of course, there’s a little more to the process of
ValueCapping™, but these are examples of the simple, clear and
obvious races that I urge the Wizards to look for.
Do you see why it’s hard to get excited about a puzzle like the
Derby when modest races like these produce such spectacular
results?
One more example, and we’ll get on to the Preakness.
Last Saturday, May 8th, I posted about a race on the Wizards’
Forum.
Every Saturday morning, we have a ‘Wizards’ Roundtable’ where
there are postings about races that look interesting that day.
Unlike the rancor that usually appears in internet discussions of
races, these Roundtables are unfailingly supportive and instructive.
One of the reasons I wake up in the morning looking forward to my
day is to see the support and encouragement users of Black Magic:
The Ultimate Handicapper Software™ give each other on that
Forum.
Here’s what I posted about the 5th race at Golden Gate that day:
Here’s the screenshot with my notes:
And here were the final odds.
As I said in the post, this was not the simplest race, but I had several
ValueCapping™ factors including the fact that the 5 was the lone
closer in AccuPressure V2 and the lone Sustained horse in the race.
A scratch of one horse changed the odds slightly, but I was still
going to bet the 5, and wanted to use the 6 as an unknown with a
big Late Fraction. And my ‘home run’ trifecta box worked out as
well in the superfecta.
The results? A $49.80 horse, an exacta that paid $289.60 for $2, a
$1 tri that paid $1,225.50, and a $1 superfecta for $7,031.70.
A weekend maker, all from the ValueCapping™ process and
recognizing horses that were not as good as the public thought they
were.
Some of my tickets follow:`
$6,316.25 out of the race with not a lot invested. The key tools of
Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software™ and
ValueCapping™ led me to a very simple insight into the race.
This was a $4,000 claimer, non winners of two lifetime.
Again, can you see why I don’t get that excited about the so-called
‘big’ races?
Having said that, I suppose it’s time to look at the Preakness.
Here’s the Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software™
summary:
The two morning line favorites, Lookin At Lucky and Super Saver
are the first and third on the Black Magic line. Three of the race’s
top 4 morning line horses are in the top 4 of Black Magic.
The top Contention Line horses are at the top of the line.
That means in effect that Black Magic agrees with what the public
will probably do in the race.
Another bit of caution is that the race comes up as an Unpressured
race, slightly favoring the early horses, yet the Track Profile for
Pimlico routes has been trending on the late side.
In other words, the pace scenario is as clear as mud.
At this point, I don’t see a good reason to get seriously involved in
this race.
I may take small shots with the 6, Jackson Bend, one of the earlier
horses from a running style perspective, yet expends its energy on
the late side. With the obvious horses, 7, Lookin At Lucky, 12,
Dublin, 8, Super Saver, at a big price I’d throw in the 6, and for
bombs structure some small exotics with the 1, 5th on the line, and
the 5, the Fulcrum.
But this is strictly an action play.
Give me a good $4,000 claimer any day of the week.
I wanted you to see my analysis of those ‘cheap’ races with not so
cheap payouts so you could see first hand the opportunities that are
out there, far removed from the ‘glamour’ races.
I’m supposed to have an opinion about the Triple Crown races, and
sometimes I do.
Sometimes, that opinion is that it’s not a good value investment,
and that’s not a popular sentiment.
As usual, I will focus on the undercards, and the ‘lesser’ tracks. I
don’t have all of the final cards as I write this, so I haven’t done all
of that work, but do try to find value in the other couple of hundred
races running on Saturday.
Drop me a line at michael@posttimedaily.com if you have any
questions or to let me know how it’s going. As this is Preakness
weekend, it may take a little bit to get back to you. You can see the
latest goings-on at Post Time by visiting www.posttimedaily.com
Good luck on Derby Day and always!
Remember to make the bet make you,
All the best,
Michael
P.S. One last thing. In answer to the many inquiries I’ve gotten
about when Black Magic will be open to join again, the good news
is that it is open now, and will be open through the Triple Crown
series.
I am personally involved on a daily basis supporting the Wizards on
the Forum, so I have to keep the numbers limited. They get personal
coaching from me on the Forum and a full length DVD every month
from yours truly, and it’s a tremendous amount of work, but I am so
pleased with the progress I see with the Wizards, and the scores
they post, I can’t even begin to say.
As an added sweetener, those of you who get Black Magic: The
Ultimate Handicapper during the 2010 Triple Crown Season will
receive a copy of the latest DVD set, ‘Mastering The Art Of
Handicapping And Value Investment’, 15 DVDs, Manual, special
StackTech™ upgrade for Black Magic), valued at around $1,500,
normally sells for $497, as a free bonus with your getting Black
Magic.
(You can read more about Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper
Software™ and see an introductory video here:
http://www.posttimedaily.com/blam01/index.html
You can read more about the ‘Mastering the Art’ DVDs here:
http://www.posttimedaily.com/MAHVI/mahvi.html )
Those who get Black Magic between now and Belmont Stakes day
will automatically get a copy of this course included with Black
Magic. I’ve never gotten so much positive feedback about any other
Seminar course, many have found it an utter game changer.
If you’re interested, go to www.posttimedaily.com, and you’ll see
banners about Black Magic and ‘Mastering the Art’ right on top.
Michael Pizzolla
Post Time Solutions, Inc.
2900 South Rancho Drive
Las Vegas, NV 89102

Michael Pizzollaʼs 2010 Preakness Handicapping Magic Rant

Transcription

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