Michael Pizzolla`s 2010 Belmont Stakes ValueCapping™ Rant

Transcription

Michael Pizzolla’s
2010 Belmont Stakes
ValueCapping™ Rant
Copyright ©2010 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved www.posttimedaily.com
From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
June 3, 2010
11:37 PM
Las Vegas
Dear ValueCapper and Friend:
The Belmont Stakes is here. It brings with it, for me, very fond memories
of Belmonts past.
East Side, West Side, all around the town,
The tots sang Ring Around Rosie, London Bridge is falling down,
Boys and girls together, me and Mamie O'Rourke
Tripped the light fantastic on the sidewalks of New York
Not exactly William Butler Yeats, but I do miss that song. It’s been
around since the 1890s, Al Smith used it as the theme song of his
presidential campaign, and the Grateful Dead covered it.
Can’t see Jerry Garcia, rest in peace, belting out New York, New York.
Having seen over 20 Belmonts in person, including the last three triple
crown winners, the Belmont has a special spot in my heart. Of all the
sporting events and championship games I’ve witnessed, seeing Roger
Maris belt home runs as a kid, watching World Series games in both
Yankee and Shea Stadiums, nothing, and I do mean nothing, could ever
compare to the 1973 Belmont with Secretariat blowing away the field in
what is unquestionably the greatest thoroughbred performance in
modern times.
I remember holding my breath, expecting the chestnut colt to explode
from the fractions, and although there were thousands around me, I
could see nothing but the big chestnut and the blur of blue and white
checks. I will never forget that moment, never forget Ronnie Turcotte
looking back to see where the other colts went.
So, I guess it tees me off just a bit to hear the pundits and sportswriters
pooh pooh this year’s Belmont.
Sure, NYRA’s in trouble, and needed a bailout. Yes, neither the Derby or
Preakness winner is running.
As a native New Yorker and passionate racing fan, I think it’s still a great
event, despite the woes besieging New York Racing, the oldest
continuously run race in North America, 8 years older than the
Kentucky Derby.
The wags at the club knew that Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper
Software™ had Super Saver on top in the Derby, and Lookin At Lucky
on top in the Preakness. They knew because when they had asked me
who I liked in the Derby, I told them that my software had Super Saver
on top, but I didn’t think it was a good bet.
When asked about the Preakness, I told them the software had Lookin At
Lucky on top but I didn’t think it was a good bet.
So this year, one of the fellows I play golf with regularly asked me, ‘So,
Michael, who do you think isn’t a good bet in the Belmont?’
I laughed out loud.
For all the fondness I have for the Belmont, as an investor, it’s still a risky
proposition. It’s a 12 furlong race, as in a mile and a half. Pace is less
predictive in these marathons than in the run of the mill race.
As in every single investment opportunity at which I look (some would
say, ‘as in every race I handicap’, but I truly look at these purely and
simply as investment opportunities, without attachment), I will require a
good price before investing.
This is especially true in the mile and a half Belmont.
Before getting into the specifics of this year’s running, I want to make a
few points about the first two legs of the Triple Crown, and how Black
Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software™ handled them.
I got quite a few emails from Rant subscribers telling me how fantastic it
was that Black Magic put the winners on top.
I know that not too many years ago, I would have felt the same way.
What I’ve learned through long experience, through being in the
trenches week in and week out, is that picking winners is overrated.
Don’t get me wrong, we need to have some of the investments we make
that cash, of course.
But it’s the pursuit of picking the winner that leads to frustration.
Looking for value investment is the key. The game becomes one of
balance, of discipline, of waiting until there’s a good opportunity and
then taking advantage of it.
I’ve known many very smart people try to have a go at professional
betting here in Las Vegas, only to discover they were either reckless
gamblers, or lacked the discipline and patience to be successful.
There are hundreds of races to bet on the average summer’s weekend,
choosing which ones on which to focus is a bit of an art.
Now, technology is extremely helpful in this regard.
As I become more and more conversant with the Internet and how it has
made the world’s knowledge available so easily, I’m also aware of the
potential of information overload.
Nowhere is this more true than thoroughbred racing.
There is just so much information on so many races, it can be so
overwhelming that it can lead to paralysis.
Or even worse, finding something on each horse in the race, that it
leads to massive confusion.
That’s why having a reliable odds line is so important, and focusing on
finding the value opportunity in the race so crucial. I’ve stopped
referring to what I do as handicapping and started calling it
ValueCapping™, awkward as that term is, because it is a search for
value that I am undertaking when I look at a race.
I am extremely comfortable when my odds line shows the top horse at
2-1 and the second one at 3-1 betting the second horse, the ‘lesser’
horse, the ‘not-right’ horse, the ‘how-could-you-bet-that’ horse, when
the odds are right and the horse fits the race.
I look not for win percentage, but for price and return on investment.
Like an investor; not a player, a punter, a gambler.
I’ve been spoiled with Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper
Software™.
The main thing I’ve come to appreciate about it is how it cuts through
the massive overload of information to focus in on those races where
there’s opportunity. It does this by portfolios.
Sure, the odds line is very strong and solid, but using the odds line
without understanding the dynamics of value, of the Contention Line,
that is understanding what the public should do with the horse, is not
very valuable.
So, I’m not being flippant if I seem casual about Black Magic ‘picking’
the winners of the Derby and the Preakness, of course that’s wonderful
as far as it goes. But if the bet’s not there, if the value’s not there, there’s
no investment, and that’s that.
So, on to this year’s Belmont.
Here’s the Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software™ Summary
Grid, right out of the box:
Unlike the Derby, where there were a dozen colts above the random
line, in this race, there are only 5.
The random line is a simple concept: If there are 10 horses in a race, the
random odds of any of them winning is 9-1, 9 potential losing outcomes
and one winning one.
So, any horse with computed odds (in this case, the Black Magic
Ultimate Odds Line™ Odds) of over 9-1 would be above random, and
not usually considered for win. (I could write a book about the ‘not
usually’ but that’s for another discussion).
In this year’s Belmont, there are 12 colts, so the random line would put
horses with computed odds of over 11-1 below the line.
The line we see is 5-1, 7-1, 7-1, 7-1, and 8-1 above the random line:
Normally, in a race like this, I’ll begin by seeing where the value may
lie, and conversely, how strong the favorites are.
Now in this race, there are three potential prices. That’s a lot considering
that we’re considering 5 colts.
Very often in races for non-champion horses (I’m being kind here and
avoiding porcine references), those distinctions are easier to make.
Some cheaper horses have a harder time recovering after hard races,
there are suspicious drops in class, and so forth.
Not likely in the Belmont Stakes.
The top colt on the line is the 3, Uptowncharliebrown.
5-1 on the BLAM Ultimate Odds Line, 9-1 on the Contention Line (what
the public should do based on conventional handicapping), and 10-1
Morning LIne. That looks reasonable to me.
It’s been off since April 17th, about a month and a half, and has been
working well.
The 9, Stately Victor is interesting. 7-1 on the line, 8-1 Contention, 15-1
Morning Line. In the normal race, I would tend to think the odds on this
colt will fall more to the Morning Line because of the colt’s poor finish
in the Derby. One thing the colt has going for him is Advanced Form
Patterns, and it’s the only colt in the entire race (not just above the
random line) that has a pattern.
Here’s a close up of the Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper
Software™ summary grid. I’ve highlighted the things that caught my eye
when I very first looked at the race.
The other price potential is the 8, Game On Dude, which just won the
Lone Star Derby.
This colt brings up a situation that happens often, and, as in life, we
horse investors must deal with ambiguity.
Belmont traditionally runs late. When I was spending a lot of time at
Belmont after having learned about percentage of energy expenditure, I
noticed that Belmont was particularly consistent in its requirements.
The potential pace scenario in this race on the positional side is Neutral,
and from a velocity perspective, Unpressured.
Yet Belmont typically favors late runners.
Yet this is the 12 furlong Belmont Stakes, and many Belmonts are won,
counterintuitively, by pressing or early pressing colts.
See what I mean about ambiguity?
Game On Dude, the 8, is toward the early side in energy expenditure.
Good if the unpressured scenario unfolds.
If there is an unexpected speed duel among more than 2 colts, the race
may go to one of the late runners. Among the top contenders would be
the 9, Stately Victor.
The 3, Uptowncharliebrown, is ‘just right’, a late running colt that
expends its energy in the 51.5-52% range.
Ultimately, the decision will be based on price and value.
Remember, this game is not about picking winners, but finding a good
investment.
Yes, all things being equal, I’d like a clear pace scenario that is in
alignment with the Track Profile, and I’d like only one horse that’s a
price among my top horses, and that horse be coming to a race.
I’d also like to shoot 67 every time I step on a golf course.
Back to real life, and real racing, it comes down to price and value, and
frankly sometimes there is no price, and sometimes too much price.
The probably favorite is the 6, Ice Box, made a nice close in the Derby
int its last out. It finished only 6 lengths ahead of the 9 Stately Victor
(think a couple of blinks of the eye).
The last colt above random is the 5, Fly Down. This colt is a late
expender of energy, ran a wonderful race in winning the Dwyer at
Belmont last out, and has a lot of buzz, Nick Zito, and all of that.
While I think Fly Down has a shot at being in the exotics, I also sense
that it will be well bet and an underlay.
The probable second favorite is the 11, First Dude, a colt that many
thought ran a great race in the Preakness. I thought it completely messed
up both my trifecta and superfecta boxes by finishing second and was
not amused.
I mention this colt even though it’s below the line because it’s the
Fulcrum in the race and the Fulcrum often winds up getting into the
exotics.
First Dude is the only colt in the race to have the lead in both the first
and second calls in a route at race horse time (not counting Spangled
Star’s very slow fractions in a maiden loss at Laurel), and did that in the
Preakness.
There’s a smattering of pressers, and Ice Box and Game On Dude figure
to keep First Dude company. Looking at the fractions involved in the
pace scenario, I tend to believe the Unpressured designation of the race.
Where does that leave us?
Price and value will be the guiding star in this potential investment.
I’m leaning to making a win bet on the 3, Uptowncharliebrown AND/
OR the 9, Stately Victor. The 3 because it’s on top of the line, and has a
great energy expenditure for Belmont. The 9 because it’s second on the
line, is the only Advanced Form Pattern in the race, and is a Reverser to
the probable favorite, the 6, Ice Box.
Will need solid 10-1 to 15-1 prices to bet either of these. The 8 would
need to be mid teens to consider if the 3 and 9 get bet.
If I had to guess sitting here almost 2 days before the race, I’d guess that
the price will be on the 9, Stately Victor, in spite of all the positive press
the colt has been getting.
Of course, I’ll use the three prices in exactas and trifectas, looking to
make a tidy score.
The best outcome would be a 3-9-8, or 9-3-8 finish, but I will need to
use the 6, Ice Box (Reversal Winner) and the 5 Fly Down in the exotics.
A 3-9-8 trifecta box and 3-5-6-8-9 box looks decent. I’ll also put the
Fulcrum, the 11 in the middle in a part wheel, 3-5-6-8-9 WITH 11
WITH 3-5-6-8-9.
For tiny home run exotics, I may use the 4, Make Music For Me, in some
small exotics, only because it comes out of the Derby, and like the 9,
Stately Victor, got in trouble early and made a nice late run, so it’s one of
the Reversals.
In spite of the fact that this is the Belmont Stakes, and I do have great
fondness for the race, it’s only one race, and a tough mile and a half at
that.
If I don’t get my prices, I won’t invest, full stop.
As with all these big days, I’ll be doing a lot of work on the undercards,
heck there are about 200 other races to consider.
A couple caught my eye on the Belmont undercard:
In the 6th at Belmont on June 5th, Belmont Stakes Day, there looks to be
a big gaggle of colts on the front end. This looks to be a very Highly
Pressured race.
Sitting right on top of the BLAM Odds Line is the 4 Thank U Phillipe, a
closing style horse that’s 6-1 on the Morning Line. Since it is a very
strong 2-1 on the BLAM line, with a Contention of 6-1, it would be a
very tempting investment at 6-1. The crowd will go for the 1,
Eightfiveinafifty, the 5, D’Funnybone, and the 3 Discreetly Mine, 9/5,
2-1, and 5/2 Morning Line.
7 furlongs at Belmont typically goes late, the Track Profile is trending
late, and Thank U Phillipe is two for two at 7 furlongs with big closes to
win.
The other race that caught my eye was the Acorn Stakes, the 9th at
Belmont on Belmont Stakes Day.
The filly I fancied and bet in the Kentucky Oaks, the 12 Champagne
d’Oro, finds herself at the top of the BLAM line. She got into all sorts of
trouble at the beginning of the Oaks, and was not used at all in the latter
part of the race. The race comes up Highly Pressured, but at 30-1
Morning Line, I’ll overlook the running style of the filly if I get anything
near that to take a win bet.
Don’t just look at the Belmont undercard, there are likely to be
opportunities everywhere.
For example, I will looking at the 3rd at Prairie Meadows where the
second horse on the BLAM line, the 2, Vicar’s Truth, is 2-1 on the BLAM
Ultimate Odds Line, and is likely to be the longest shot on the board.
Well, that’s about it for now about Belmont Stakes Day.
I’ve been working on some interesting projects with the Wizards who
use Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software™.
This past week, I revealed a program that’s designed to be a way of
working that can improve the ValueCapping™ process dramatically. It’s
called 30 Days To ValueCapping™Mastery.
The first part of that series is about HOW to work, and is based on the
very latest scientific research on how we are wired and how our brains
work and learn. The second part talks about the specifics of applying it
to the Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software™ process, and
would not be relevant to all of you.
But the first part, which talks about the technique not only has the
potential to dramatically improve your investing, you may also find it
applicable to other areas of your life.
You can watch this very special video by going to this link:
http://www.posttimedaily.com/wizardsforumaudiopart1
Drop me a line at michael@posttimedaily.com if you have any
questions, comments on the 30 Days To Mastery, or to let me know how
it’s going. I so appreciate all the feedback and comments, and I thank
you so much. As this is Belmont weekend, it may take a little bit to get
back to you.
Good luck on Belmont Stakes Day and always!
Remember to make the bet make you,
All the best,
Michael
P.S. One last thing. Openings for getting Black Magic: The Ultimate
Handicapper Software™ will be available through the end of Belmont
Stakes weekend.
I am personally involved on a daily basis supporting the Wizards on the
Forum, so I have to keep the numbers limited. They get personal
coaching from me on the Forum and a full length DVD every month
from yours truly, along with an audio presentation (like the 30 Days to
ValueCapping™ Mastery) and it’s a tremendous amount of work, but I
am so pleased with the progress I see with the Wizards, and the scores
they post, I can’t even begin to say.
As an added sweetener, those of you who get Black Magic: The Ultimate
Handicapper during the 2010 Triple Crown Season will receive a copy
of the latest DVD set, ‘Mastering The Art Of Handicapping And Value
Investment’, 15 DVDs, Manual, special StackTech™ upgrade for Black
Magic), valued at around $1,500, normally sells for $497, as a free
bonus with your getting Black Magic.
(You can read more about Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper
Software™ and see an introductory video here:
http://www.posttimedaily.com/blam01/index.html
You can read more about the ‘Mastering the Art’ DVDs here:
http://www.posttimedaily.com/MAHVI/mahvi.html )
Those who get Black Magic between now and Belmont Stakes day will
automatically get a copy of this course included with Black Magic. I’ve
never gotten so much positive feedback about any other Seminar course,
many have found it an utter game changer.
If you’re interested, go to www.posttimedaily.com, and you’ll see
banners about Black Magic and ‘Mastering the Art’ right on top.
P.P.S. Since learning all kinds of geeky things lately, I’ve got a Twitter and
Facebook account. My name on both of those is, creatively I think,
Michael Pizzolla. I send out periodic Tweets about the latest goings on
in horse racing. Go to twitter.com and facebook.com, open up a free
account, follow me if you’d like, and potentially catch up with old and
new friends.
I’ve also got a blog at www.handicappinghorseraces.com where I post
stories about horse racing news. I’m not much of a web designer, but
I’m proud that I set this up on my own.

Michael Pizzolla`s 2010 Belmont Stakes ValueCapping™ Rant

Transcription

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