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PDF - InterVISTAS
INTERVISTAS MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT RISING FUEL PRICES 10 February 2005 The price of crude oil has not closed below $40 since July 2004… The price of crude has consistently traded within the $40 to $55 range since July 2004. The price has not dropped below $40 over the past 6 months. Financial analysts forecast that crude oil prices will stay within this price range for the near term. Futures prices continue to increase. OPEC. At the recent OPEC meeting held on 30 January 2005, the consortium decided to leave current production levels intact. OPEC is eager to leave the crude oil stock at current levels and not allow stock to build through the second quarter of the year when demand in the Northern hemisphere declines after the winter season. At the meeting, OPEC also decided to “temporarily suspend” its pricing band mechanism. Historically, OPEC had a price band for crude oil between $22 and $28. The last time crude oil traded within that pricing band was in early 2003, just prior to the Iraq war. Doris Mak Senior Project Manager Increased International Consumption. The International Energy Agency, a Paris-based watchdog for the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, had raised its estimate for 2005 oil demand by 80,000 barrels per day, resulting in an overall average demand of 84 million barrels per day worldwide. The forecast revision can be attributed to strong demand by China and other countries in Asia that are not a part of the OECD. Other Global Factors. Analysts are bullish on the long-term outlook for the price of crude oil. Continued demands for oil by China and India, and continued instability in the Middle East will keep demand high. Still simmering in the background is the Yukos affair. Russian authorities claim that Yukos owes nearly $30 billion in back taxes. The company stated that these issues might disrupt its output. …. Continued high futures prices expected Futures prices have continued on the same upward trend established throughout 2004 into 2005. The price of a barrel of crude oil contracted in June 2004 for delivery in December 2008 was just over $30. If that same contract was purchased today, it would cost $40, an increase of 34% compared to 8 months ago. Page 2 February 2005 InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. Market Intelligence Report ©InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. A REVIEW OF DOMESTIC SEAT CAPACITY IN CANADA 11 February 2005 Over the last several years, there has been a change in the level of domestic seat capacity offered by carriers in Canada. A comparison of OAG airline schedules in August 1999 and in August 2004 shows that although full service carriers (FSCs) such as Air Canada still account for a large proportion of the seat capacity offered in Canada, their share of total domestic seats has declined. Meanwhile, low cost carriers (LCCs) have increased their share of domestic seat capacity, including capacity on coast-to-coast routes, such as those recently announced by CanJet. Total Domestic Seat Capacity has Declined. The total amount of domestic seat capacity Eugene Chu Project Analyst offered in Canada has declined from approximately 4.5 million in August 1999 to 4.3 million in August 2004 (-5%). During this period, Canadian Airlines, Canada 3000 and Royal Aviation ceased operations, while WestJet, Jetsgo and CanJet all emerged as key players in the domestic market. Table 1 summarises the seat capacity offered by each carrier in August 1999 and in August 2004. Table 1: Domestic Seat Capacity in Canada Total Volume of Seat Capacity Carrier Share of Total Seat Capacity August 1999 August 2004 Change August 1999 August 2004 Air Canada1 1,988,234 2,222,543 12% 44% 52% Canadian Airlines 1,597,238 - - 35% - 3,585,472 2,222,543 -38% 80% 52% WestJet 290,848 991,826 241% 7% 23% Royal Aviation 64,791 - - 1% - Jetsgo - 254,948 - - 6% CanJet - 123,360 - - 3% LCC Total 355,639 1,370,134 285% 8% 32% Other2 566,304 698,464 23% 13% 16% 4,507,415 4,291,141 -5% 100% 100% FSC Total Grand Total Source: OAG Max August 1999 and 2004 disk. Notes: Numbers may not add up due to rounding. Includes Air Canada mainline, Zip and Jazz. Includes Canada 3000 and other carriers. Page 3 February 2005 1 2 InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. Market Intelligence Report ©InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. Shift in the Share of Domestic Seat Capacity to Low Cost Carriers. As illustrated in Table 1, FSC’s share of domestic seats in Canada has declined from 80% in August 1999 to 52% in August 2004. In essence, Air Canada has shed the majority of the seat capacity it inherited in the merger with Canadian Airlines. Table 1 also shows that LCC’s share of domestic seats has increased from 8% in August 1999 to 32% in August 2004. Most of this growth is attributable to WestJet, which has increased their domestic seat capacity offering by over 200% during this period. LCC Seat Capacity Allocation Trends. It is interesting to note that over the last few years, LCCs have not only increased their seat capacity offering in Canada, but have also moved into primary airports and increased their range of services to include coast-to-coast operations. In 2002, Calgary based WestJet moved its Eastern Canadian hub from Hamilton to Toronto, and now offers services between Ottawa, Toronto and Montreal and several major cities on the West Coast of Canada. Jetsgo is already offering coast-to-coast services, while CanJet has recently announced the launch of Vancouver-Toronto services. Page 4 February 2005 InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. Market Intelligence Report ©InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. AIRLINE DATA – CANADA Traffic and Load Factors on Canada’s Major Air Carriers- January 2005 Passenger Traffic Air Carrier OTHER CARRIERS: LOAD FACTORS CanJet: not reported Revenue Passenger Kilometres % Change over 2004 % Change from 2003 Capacity Load Factor Available Seat Kilometres % Change over 2004 % Change from 2003 Change over 2004 Change from 2003 Air Canada3 +6.2% +7.4% -1.5% -2.7% +5.7 pts (to 77.7%) +7.3 pts Domestic (Mainline) +3.4% +4.9% -6.3% -7.0% +7.2 pts +8.7 pts Jazz +21.0% +18.0% -2.7% -5.3% +13.2 pts +13.3 pts International & Charter +7.3% +8.3% +0.4% -0.9% +5.1 pts +6.7 pts WestJet +31.4% +101.3% +28.8% +76.8% +1.4 pts (to 69.8%) +8.5 pts Jetsgo4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Analysis: • • • Air Canada continues to reduce domestic capacity. Domestic traffic in January 2005 increased compared to both 2004 and 2003, resulting in a record load factor for the month of January. Although Air Canada’s international traffic continues to increase, capacity was just above 2004 levels and slightly below 2003. Capacity to the U.S. continues to be reduced, while Asia Pacific capacity posted a 2.3% increase year-to-year. In January 2005, WestJet’s growth in traffic outpaced the addition of capacity, resulting in a higher load factor. Air Canada Domestic Mainline 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Jazz data is not included in this graph Jan 04 Feb Mar Ap ril May Ju n July Dom RPK Aug Sep Oct No v Dec Jan 05 Dom ASK Air Canada International 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Jan 04 F eb M ar Ap ril M ay Ju n Int'l RPK Ju ly Au g Sep Oct No v Dec Ja n05 Int'l ASK WestJet 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Ja n04 Fe b Ma r April M ay Ju n RPK Ju ly Au g Sep Oct No v De c Jan 05 ASK Air Canada Mainline consists of all Air Canada operations with the exception of Jazz. Jetsgo data not available at time of publication. Page 5 InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. Market Intelligence Report February 2005 ©InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. 3 4 AIRLINE DATA – U.S. U.S. Airlines Release January 2005 Traffic Figures Traffic Data – January 2005 Airline 1 2 2 Notes: 1. 2. Sources: Page 6 February 2005 Load Factor Traffic (RPMs – millions) (ASMs – millions) 73.3% 10,569 14,412 4.4 pts 8.1% 1.7% 61.4% 522 850 3.0 pts 28.9% 22.8% 58.9% 697 1,184 1.9 pts 25.1% 22.7% 76.1% 5,242 6,884 4.7 pts 10.1% 3.2% 71.8% 8,683 12,095 4.5 pts 12.3% 5.2% 83.7% 1,431 1,710 5.6 pts 32.6% 23.8% 76.8% 5,818 7,580 3.7 pts 11.0% 5.7% 58.8% 4,004 6,815 2.6 pts 15.9% 10.9% 76.1% 8,819 11,583 4.0 pts 4.8% 0.7% 68.3% 2,906 4,256 3.9 pts 3.9% 2.0% Capacity Mainline Load factor includes scheduled service only Carrier traffic reports. InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. Market Intelligence Report ©InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. Summary of Total Year-Over-Year Passenger Traffic Performance at Selected Canadian Airports 2003 Toronto Vancouver December +1.9% +2.8% MontréalTrudeau +8.5% +5.4% +4.9% +6.0% +6.0% +2.9% +16.1% +9.1% +0.8% +2.0% St. John’s +13.9% 4th -0.1% +0.5% +6.4% +3.9% +7.4% +4.5% +6.4% +1.9% +15.6% +6.6% -0.4% +6.33% +10.8% Full Year -4.6% -3.7% +1.3% +2.7% +2.9% +1.3% +5.1% +4.2% +7.3% +2.9% -0.5% +2.4% +9.4% January +2.3% +1.5% +10.0% +3.9% +7.7% +3.5% +6.4% +3.2% +12.4% +5.9% -2.2% +8.3% +12.8% February +8.6% +7.9% +19.6% +5.3% +10.7% +13.9% +11.7% +5.6% +11.4% +11.6% +7.8% +2.8% +19.8% March +9.3% +5.2% +21.4% +2.0% +8.0% +11.4% +11.4% +9.0% +8.2% +2.6% +10.8% +3.9% +21.3% Quarter +6.8% +4.8% +17.1% +3.7% +8.8% +9.7% +9.9% +6.1% +10.5% + 6.5% +5.3% +5.0% +18.0% April +30.6% +20.5% +31.7% +11.5% +8.6% +20.8% +11.2% +16.9% +12.7% -0.3% +10.9% +2.6% +20.1% May +30.8% +20.4% +26.3% +5.5% +7.5% +7.6% +9.0% +19.4% +8.0% -1.3% -0.3% -5.5% +15.2% June +18.5% +16.1% +18.1% +8.0% +2.8% +12.1% +9.2% +7.8% +8.6% +3.0% +1.7% -4.3% +15.9% 2nd Quarter +26.2% +18.8% +24.9% +8.3% +6.2% +13.2% +9.7% +14.5% +9.7% +0.5% +3.8% -2.5% +16.9% July +17.2% +10.4% +18.7% +5.0% +0.8% +5.7% +8.6% +10.5% +4.7% -0.5% +5.5% +1.4% +10.6% August +16.0% +4.9% +18.1% +1.9% +2.2% +6.2% +7.4% +6.9% -2.0% -5.9% +5.4% +1.5% +10.1% September +16.1% +11.5% +13.2% +13.0% +6.3% +7.9% +8.8% +8.6% +8.3% +12.1% +5.3% -0.6% +13.4% 3rd +16.5% +8.7% +16.7% +6.2% +2.9% +6.6% +8.2% +8.6% +3.3% +1.1% +5.4% +0.8% +11.2% October +14.8% +7.0% +10.7% +10.7% -4.0% +11.9% +1.1% +3.7% -1.4% +9.1% +7.9% +1.9% +18.2% November +13.3% +6.2% +17.6% +9.6 +4.7% +11.4% +4.4% +8.3% +0.3 +5.1% +8.0% -11.1% +9.9% 1st Quarter 2004 Quarter Calgary Edmonton Ottawa Winnipeg Halifax Victoria Kelowna Saskatoon Regina December N/A N/A +20.9% +8.9% +8.4% +11.0% +5.1% +8.0% +2.1% +3.9% +8.1% +3.6% +6.8% 4th Quarter N/A N/A +16.1% +9.7% +3.1% +11.4% +3.5% +6.4% +0.3% +5.9% +8.0% -2.1% +11.9% Full Year N/A N/A +18.6% +7.0% +5.1% +10.2% +7.7% +9.1% +5.7% +3.6% +5.6% +0.3% +14.0% Source: Transport Canada Page 7 February 2005 InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. Market Intelligence Report ©InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. JAN FEB MAR APR * ** ** JUL AUG SEP OCT ** ** ** x NOV DEC x x ** ** x 2008 2007 2006 ** JUN * * * 2005 * MAY x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Note: Unless otherwise specified, all deliveries are 737-700 jets; all retirements are 737-200 jets. * Indicates addition of 737-800. ** Indicates addition of 737-600. Source: Dates provided by WestJet Airlines, effective October 2004. Retirement dates are estimates only. Page 8 February 2005 InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. Market Intelligence Report ©InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. NEWS ARTICLES CANADIAN AIRLINE NEWS AIR CANADA LAUNCHES BEIJINGTORONTO SERVICE Beginning 2 June 2005, Air Canada will start non-stop services between Toronto and Beijing four times per week with A340-300 aircraft. The carrier will also replace the 189 seat B767-300ER aircraft with the 282 seat A340-300 aircraft on its Vancouver-Shanghai route during the peak season starting 1 June 2005. AIR CANADA INTRODUCES CODESHARE SERVICES TO VIETNAM Air Canada has launched code-share services to Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam via Hong Kong with its Star Alliance partner, United Airlines. Air Canada operates two flights per day from Vancouver and Toronto to Hong Kong, which will connect with the codeshare flights to Ho Chi Minh City operated by United Airlines. WESTJET EXTENDS CALGARY-PALM SPRINGS SERVICE WestJet will extend two of its three weekly non-stop flights between Calgary and Palm Springs to 2 May 2005. The weekend flight will be discontinued 3 April 2005. WESTJET STARTS ABBOTSFORDTORONTO SERVICE, ADDS TORONTOFLORIDA FLIGHTS WestJet has started daily non-stop services between Abbotsford and Toronto. Between 18 March and 28, the carrier will offer 42 additional non-stop flights from Toronto to Florida including 18 extra flights to Orlando, 12 to Fort Lauderdale and 12 to Tampa. WestJet currently operates 28 weekly scheduled flights between Toronto and Florida. Page 9 February 2005 WESTJET TO WITHDRAW FROM GANDER, SHIFTS CAPACITY TO ST. JOHN’S Beginning 7 April 2005, WestJet will withdraw services from Gander and redeploy capacity to St. John’s, Newfoundland. The carrier will be offering daily services between St. John’s and Halifax. WestJet has been servicing Gander since 17 June 2003. WESTJET COMPLETES LEASE ARRANGEMENTS ON EIGHT AIRCRAFT WestJet has completed operating lease arrangements on eight of the 15 B737 aircraft that it will acquire in 2005, including three B737700s and five B737-800s to be delivered by June 2005 (one B737-700 has already been delivered). The carrier plans to finance the remaining seven aircraft to be delivered in 2005, four B737-700s and three B737-600s, with loanguarantees from the Export-Import Bank of the United States. CANJET TO LAUNCH TORONTOCALGARY AND TORONTO-VANCOUVER SERVICES CanJet will start two daily nonstop flights between Toronto and Calgary on 16 May 2005, and between Toronto and Vancouver on 27 June 2005. The routes will be operated with B737-500 aircraft. CANJET INCREASES DEER LAKE AND ST. JOHN’S SERVICES Beginning 16 May 2005, CanJet will add a second daily flight between Deer Lake and Halifax. In addition, the carrier will add a third daily nonstop flight between St. John’s and Halifax starting 27 June 2005. During the summer peak, the carrier will also be offering one daily non-stop flight between St. John’s-Toronto and St. John’s-Moncton. InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. Market Intelligence Report ©InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. NEWS ARTICLES CANADIAN AIRLINE NEWS – CON’T CANJET PARTNERS WITH SUNQUEST TO CHARTER FLIGHTS FROM HALIFAX TO THE CARIBBEAN AND MEXICO CanJet and Sunquest have partnered to offer customers package charters from Halifax to the Caribbean and Mexico. CANADIAN AIRPORT NEWS AMERICA WEST AND QANTAS TO CODE SHARE FROM EDMONTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (YEG) America West and Qantas have signed a codeshare agreement for flights from YEG on America West connecting to Qantas’ flights to Australia and New Zealand. From Los Angeles, passengers will be able to connect to Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane in Australia, and to Auckland, New Zealand. WINNIPEG AIRPORTS AUTHORITY REPORTS $4.4 MILLION SURPLUS FOR 2004 Winnipeg Airports Authority reported revenues of $35 million, with $15 million in Airport Improvement Fee (AIF) revenues for the year ended 31 December 2004. Operating surplus was $4.4 million after expenses. The airport’s restricted capital fund (for terminal renewal) is approximately $26 million. VANCOUVER AIRPORT SERVICES SELECTED FOR MANAGEMENT CONTRACT IN BAHAMAS Vancouver Airport Services (YVRAS) has been chosen from among four short-listed bidders to negotiate a long-term management contract for the development and operation of the Nassau International Airport (NAS) in the Bahamas. The contract will be for 15 to 25 years, depending on the negotiation of financial Page 10 February 2005 and commercial terms. YVRAS will be responsible for introducing best practices, managing the US$200 million construction program, enhancing commercial venues at the airport and improving the US Pre-Clearance facilities and services. NAS is the fourth busiest airport in the Caribbean, handling 3 million passengers annually. HALIFAX MAIN TERMINAL RENAMED AFTER ROBERT STANFIELD The main terminal at Halifax International Airport will be renamed to honour Robert Stanfield, the late federal Progressive Conservative leader and Nova Scotia Premier. Stanfield was Premier from 1956 to 1967 and passed away at the age of 89 in 2003. A naming ceremony is expected within a few months. PEOPLE IN THE NEWS ACI-NA PRESIDENT TO LEAVE AT THE END OF 2005 David Z. Plavin, President of the Airports Council International-North America (ACI-NA) has announced that he will depart from the post at the end of 2005. Plavin was named ACI-NA President in 1996 and was instrumental in increasing funding for airports through AIR-21, the Aviation Investment Reform Act in 2000. COMAIR’S RADEMACHER RESIGNS Comair CEO Randy Rademacher has resigned effective 17 Jan 2005, to pursue other opportunities. This comes nearly one month after the airline was forced to shut down operations over the Christmas 2004 weekend due to a computer failure, staff shortage and a severe winter storm. Delta Connection CEO Fred Buttrell will give up his position and take over Comair; his duties will be filled by other Delta executives. InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. Market Intelligence Report ©InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. NEWS ARTICLES PEOPLE IN THE NEWS -CON’T HUTCHINSON TO DEPART DHS IN MARCH Asa Hutchinson, DHS Under Secretary for Border and Transportation Security has announced his resignation effective 1 March 2005. His replacement has not yet been named. HALIFAX AIRPORT VP AND CHAIRMAN TO ASSUME ROLE OF PRESIDENT Halifax International Airport Authority (HIAA) board of directors said Vice President of Operations Peter Clarke will assume the role of acting president and COO on 1 Feb 2005, while Chairman Bernie Miller will take over as CEO. This arrangement will be in place until a permanent successor is found to replace Reg Milley, who left the HIAA to become President and CEO of the Edmonton Airports Authority at the end of January. CANADA GETS CHINA APPROVED DESTINATION STATUS After a meeting of the Canada-China Strategic Working Group, China has agreed to grant Approved Destination Status (ADS) to Canada. This allows Chinese residents to travel to Canada using a tourist exit visa. Prior to ADS, only a few Chinese visitors travelling on business could obtain exit visas to Canada. NORTHWEST TO START DAILY DETROIT-CHARLOTTETOWN FLIGHTS Starting 1 July 2005, Northwest Airlines will begin daily non-stop service between Detroit and Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island. The new seasonal route runs until 15 October 2005. OTHER TRAFFIC AT ACI AIRPORTS INCREASES Annual passenger traffic for the world’s airports increased by 11% in 2004, according to Airports Council International (ACI). Member airports’ international passengers increased by 13% and domestic passengers increased by 9%. ACI reports passenger and cargo traffic for 102 airports world wide, representing 60% of total global traffic. Part of the strong growth was due to depressed traffic in 2003 resulting from SARS and the Iraq war. Page 11 February 2005 InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. Market Intelligence Report ©InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. THE WASHINGTON REPORT February 2005 U.S. airport security fee may increase President Bush’s proposed Homeland Security Department spending plan calls for a boost in the airport security fee charged to airline passengers. The fee increase, from $2.50 to $5.50 for a one-way ticket and from $5 to $8 for a round trip ticket, are expected to generate $1.5 billion. US$20 million made available to Small Community Air Service Development Program Charles Chambers Senior Vice President InterVISTAS-ga2 Washington, D.C. The Department of Transportation has announced that $20 million is available for the 2005 Small Community Air Service Development Program. The funds will be divided amongst up to 40 communities. Priority will go to those that have higher airfares, who contribute financially from sources other than airport revenues, have established or will establish a public/private partnership to improve their air services, submitted proposals that benefit a broad segment of the community with limited access to the national transportation system, and will use the assistance in a timely manner. Grant applications are due 22 April 2005. Biometric Testing Started for US-VISIT Exit Process A DHS pilot program is underway at 9 U.S. airports testing an automatic biometric component of USVISIT. Foreign visitors departing the U.S. are asked to have their two index fingers scanned and hold for a photo. More than 17.5 million foreign visitors have been processed through US-VISIT without delaying wait times and more than 400 criminals or immigration violators have been denied entry to the U.S. House Approves its Homeland Security Committee The House has approved and made permanent the Select Committee on Homeland Security. The 9/11 Commission recommended having a permanent committee established in each chamber which would provide oversight to the DHS. The Senate has already approved its committee. Airline Ticket Protection Provision Extended to November 2005 The airline ticket protection provision, put into place following September 11, has been extended to 19 November 2005. The program was enacted to help stabilise the airline industry should a major carrier declare bankruptcy and cease operations. Passengers holding a ticket for a defunct airline can trade their tickets for flights on other airlines on a space-available basis. Ticket holders will have 60 days from suspension of operations to use their tickets. It does not apply to non-revenue or foreign carrier tickets. United States and European Union to Negotiate Boeing-Airbus Competition Rather than have the World Trade Organisation provide arbitration, the U.S. and European Union have agreed to resolve their civil aircraft trade dispute with three months of negotiations. The two sides will work towards eliminating government subsidies provided to Boeing and Airbus and establishing fair market-based competition between the two companies. The U.S. and E.U. have also agreed to seek early extension of their agreement to other countries that share significant risk-sharing production for Airbus or Boeing. Page 12 February 2005 InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. Market Intelligence Report ©InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. OTTAWA REPORT 10 February 2005 Federal Transport Minister Moves toward More Liberalised Skies with U.S. Transport Minister Jean Lapierre has indicated a desire to fast track negotiations toward a new Open Skies agreement between Canada and the U.S. Lapierre plans to kick-start the negotiations with Washington when U.S. Secretary of Transportation Norman Mineta is in Ottawa on 24 February to speak at a conference marking the 10th Anniversary of the current Canada – U.S. air services agreement. Canada and Guyana Sign New Air Transport Agreement Sam Barone Regional Vice President Ottawa, ON On 10 February 2005, Transport Minister Jean Lapierre, and International Trade Minister James Patterson, announced the completion of Canada’s first air transport agreement with Guyana. The agreement opens up opportunities for airlines to operate scheduled air services between each respective country. The agreement gives Canadian airlines the right to serve Guyana’s capital city, Georgetown, from any point in Canada. Each country is allowed to allocate a total of four weekly passenger flights and three weekly cargo flights to designated carriers. Previously, air services between the two countries could only operate on a charter basis. Government of Canada and B.C.’s Provincial Government Fund Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) Industry Minister David Emerson (on behalf of Federal Transport Minister Jean Lapierre) with B.C.’s Minister of Transport Kevin Falcon, announced on 10 February 2005 the signing of a contribution agreement between the Federal Government and the B.C. Government for the deployment of Intelligent Transportation Systems in the Province. Under the agreement, the Federal Government will contribute $713,000 and the Province $1 million for the implementation of four projects. Intelligent Transportation Systems are technologies that make transportation safer, more secure, more efficient, reliable and environmentally friendly. Transport Canada has provided more than $18 million in support of ITS projects and research in Canada. Nav Canada Reports November and December Traffic Nav Canada announced traffic figures to the end of 2004. Traffic for the months of November and December increased by an average of 6.1% and 5.2%, respectively, as compared to the same time periods in 2003. Fiscal year-to-date traffic was 5.5% higher than in fiscal year 2003/2004 and 1.3% lower than fiscal year 2000/2001. Nav Canada’s fiscal year runs from September 1 to August 31. This is a collection of information gathered from public sources, such as press releases, media articles, etc., information from Confidential sources, and items heard on the street. Thus some of the information is speculative and may not materialize. Information contained herein is provided for the use of InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. only, and may not be distributed beyond InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. Prepared by InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. Page 13 February 2005 InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. Market Intelligence Report ©InterVISTAS Consulting Inc.