Balance Sheet Strategies:

Transcription

Balance Sheet Strategies:
Balance Sheet Strategies:
A Playbook for the Current Environment
Rick Redmond
Director of Balance Sheet Strategies
Vining Sparks, IBG / ICBA Securities
Market Environment Recap
 Not the rising rate environment we hoped for




25 bps Fed tightening
50 bps to 60 bps curve flattening
Uncertain economic environment
Great uncertainty about next rate move
 Flatter curve limits rewards for mismatching assets and liabilities
 Less than 60 bps separates the 3-month and 5-year points on the curve
 Not a lot of compensation for taking on additional price risk
 Not all news is bad






Minimal cost to add floating rate assets versus fixed rate assets
Minimal cost for extending funding/hedging out the yield curve
Swap market imbalance provides attractive pay fixed swap rates
Term funding levels are cheap on an absolute and relative basis
Some product sectors have lagged the rally in treasuries
Management teams express optimism about 2016 loan prospects
Content
 Market Environment
 Banking Trends
 Current Balance Sheet Opportunities
Another Lackluster Year
The consensus of economists is that the U.S. economy will endure another year of
lackluster growth in 2016.
2.60%
Forecast GDP
2.40%
2.40%
2.20%
Bloomberg Median
Vining Sparks
Federal Reserve
Sources: Bloomberg Survey of Economists, FOMC December 2015 SEP, IMF
U.S. Outlook, Vining Sparks
IMF
2016 – How Many Rate Hikes?
The markets will once again take their lead from the Fed in 2016, and the number of rate
hikes is the key focus.
4.0
3.78
3.50
3.5
3.41
Dec. 2014 FOMC Projections
3.0
Dec. 2015 FOMC Projections
2.54
2.41
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.29
1.13
1.0
0.5
0.35
0.0
2015 YE Target Rate
2016 YE Target Rate
2017 YE Target Rate
Sources: FOMC Summary of Economic Projections, Vining Sparks
Longer Run
Pop Quiz
Which was most recent:
The iPhone or the last Fed rate hike prior to December 2015?
Last Fed rate hike prior to December 2015?
a. 2008
b. 2007
c. 2006
d. 2005
iPhone introduction
a. 2008
b. 2007
c. 2006
d. 2005
Different Economic Environment
In every other rate hike experience during the Modern Fed era, there has either been a hot labor
market, inflationary pressures building, or both. Today’s environment is much more fragile.
Feb ‘94
Rate Inc. Amount
Rate Inc. Duration
Mar ‘97
Jun ‘99
Jun ‘04
Dec ‘15
300 bps
13 mos.
25 bps
1 mos.
175 bps
12 mos.
425 bps
25 mos.
N/A
N/A
Unemployment
Participation
Hourly Earnings
6.6%
62.3%
2.8%
5.2%
63.6%
4.0%
4.3%
64.2%
3.9%
5.6%
62.3%
2.1%
5.0%
59.3%
2.0%
PCE Inflation
Core PCE Inflation
Commodity Prices
Oil Prices
2.1%
2.3%
+6.2%
-29.7%
2.1%
1.9%
+2.4%
-4.9%
1.4%
1.3%
-15.4%
+44.5%
2.8%
2.0%
+23.2%
+44.9%
0.2%
1.3%
-15.5%
-37.0%
5.8%
6.4%
6.3%
7.1%
3.1%
Nominal GDP
Sources: BLS, BEA, CRB, Bloomberg, Vining Sparks
Different Economic Environment
Since 1970, the Fed has hiked rates 95 times. Twice nominal GDP was below 4.9%. The first was
in 1982 and was followed by a 50 bps cut in the subsequent month. The second was in December
16
15
Nominal GDP at the Time of Fed Rate Hikes
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
Sources: BEA, Bloomberg, Vining Sparks
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
Rate Environment
Immediate aftermath of Fed tightening - increase in rates along the curve with minor curve
flattening. 3.00
2.50
Dec. 2015 USD Swap Curve (immediately post Fed)
Nov. 2015 USD Swap Curve (pre Fed)
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
1M
1Y
2Y
Sources: Bloomberg, Vining Sparks
3Y
4Y
5Y
6Y
7Y
8Y
9Y 10Y 11Y 12Y 13Y 14Y 15Y
Rate Environment
Two months post Fed tightening - dramatic curve flattening with term rates testing 2012 lows.
We’ve lost 50bps to 60 bps from 3-years out the curve.
3.00
Dec. 2015 USD Swap Curve (immediately post Fed)
2.50
Feb. 2016 USD Swap Curve (2-months post Fed)
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
1M
1Y
2Y
Sources: Bloomberg, Vining Sparks
3Y
4Y
5Y
6Y
7Y
8Y
9Y
10Y 11Y 12Y 13Y 14Y 15Y
Rate Environment
Since Dec 2015, we’ve lost 50 bps to 60 bps of yield from 3-years out the curve...but the belly of
the curve is still higher than the lows of 2012.
3.00
Dec. 2015 USD Swap Curve (immediately post Fed)
Feb. 2016 USD Swap Curve (2-months post Fed)
2.50
Jul. 2012 USD Swap Curve
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
1M
1Y
2Y
3Y
Sources: Bloomberg, Vining Sparks
4Y
5Y
6Y
7Y
8Y
9Y
10Y 11Y 12Y 13Y 14Y 15Y
Rate Environment
Two months post Fed tightening, the curve has flattened dramatically with spreads testing 2012
lows. 3.00
3-month to 5-year spreads
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
Feb-08
Feb-09
Sources: Bloomberg, Vining Sparks
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Basel III, Dodd-Frank and their Effects on the Market
Swap Spreads 1
20-year Average 2
Current 3
Divergence
2-year
.39%
.07%
-.32%
3-year
.44%
.01%
-.43%
5-year
.45%
-.09%
-.54%
7-year
.46%
-.20%
-.66%
10-year
.43%
-.15%
-.58%
30-year
.29%
-.47%
-.76%
Term
Sources: Bloomberg, Vining Sparks
1 USD LIBOR Swaps versus US Treasury yields
2 January 6, 1996 to January 6, 2016
3 January 6, 2016
Basel III, Dodd-Frank and their Effects on the Market
Basel III – Bank Capitalization
 Effect – forces banks to more carefully consider capital allocation
 Effect – restricts the aggregate balance sheet available to lower ROE businesses
 Repurchase transaction
 Lower margin lending activities
Basel III – Bank Liquidity
 Effect – increase cost to transact as a result of required liquidity buffers
Basel III – Bank Leverage
 Effect – reduction in aggregate balance sheet available to marketplace
 Effect – increased cost and lack of liquidity given reduction in balance sheet
capacity
Basel III, Dodd-Frank and their Effects on the Market
Basel III
 Significantly limits total balance sheet available to warehouse risk
 Restricts the ability of financial intermediaries to transfer long-term risk from one
party to another
 Increases the “cost” of transactions that entail an element of financing
 Causes securities transaction to cheapen (lower prices/ higher yields) relative to
derivatives that don’t require a financing element
Basel III, Dodd-Frank and their Effects on the Market
Dodd-Frank – Swap Market
 Adds new margining and collateral requirements for all bi-lateral swaps
 Initial margin
 Variation margin
 Establishes mandatory clearing requirements for swaps
 Centralized counterparities
 Limits dealer-to-dealer and dealer-to-end-user exposure
 Initial margin
 Variation margin
 Reduces/eliminates any embedded risk premium relative to US Treasuries or
other credit spread products
Basel III, Dodd-Frank and their Effects on the Market
Dodd-Frank – Swap Market Flows



Swap market is composed of counterparties that either pay fixed or received fixed
Aggregate flows are retained, hedged or matched by financial intermediaries (i.e., swap dealer,
major swap participants, etc..)
Balances in the flow of pay fixed and receive fixed exposure typically help keep swap spreads
(swaps minus treasuries) in equilibrium
Natural Receive Fixed Parties
Corporate debt issuers
Insurance companies
Variable annuities
Pension funds
Rate equilibrium with balanced flows
Natural Pay Fixed Parties
Community Banks
MBS portfolio managers
REITs
Asset managers
Basel III, Dodd-Frank and their Effects on the Market
 Given collateralization and mandatory clearing requirements under Dodd-Frank,
the LIBOR swap curve should no longer embed any significant risk premium
relative to US Treasury yields
 Swap rates should trade as a segregated marketplace, with movements dominated by flows
and liquidity
 Regulatory developments have restricted the aggregate balance sheet available to
finance securities transactions, making securities (Treasuries in particular)
structurally cheap
 The cheapening of Treasuries in light of regulatory developments has pushed those yields
higher (relative to swaps)
 The shrinking balances sheet available to warehouse securities can cause relatively large
flows to have an outsized impact
Basel III, Dodd-Frank and their Effects on the Market
 More natural receive fixed to pay fixed swap flows creates less support for swap
spreads, lowers relative swap rates and increases spread volatility
 Today’s market imbalance creates opportunities for natural pay fixed parties (i.e.
Community Banks)
Natural Receive Fixed Parties
Corporate debt issuers
Insurance companies
Variable annuities
Pension funds
Rate with balanced flows
Rate with imbalanced flows
Natural Pay Fixed Parties
Community Banks
MBS portfolio managers
REITs
Asset managers
Banking Trends Impact IRR Profiles




Downward trend in NIM
Increase in maturities of assets
The changing composition of liabilities
The potential impact of a rising-rate environment on interest income and
expense, and the value of investment portfolios
Downward NIM Trend
Increase in Asset Maturities




Sources: FDIC
Long-term assets represent
34.1% of total assets for
community banks.
Long-term assets at
community banks exceeded
the 25.8% held by the
banking industry and the
24.5% for non-community
banks.
In 12 out of last 15
quarters, community banks
have increased their
holdings of long-term
assets.
Long-term funding has not
grown at the same rate.
This imbalance may lead to
an increase in interest rate
risk.
Changing Funding Mix
Deposit and Brokered Funding Mix
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
Sources: FDIC
Interest-bearing deposits
Noninterest-bearing deposits
Time deposits
Brokered and wholesale funding
Market Environment Recap
Not all news is bad
 Minimal cost to add floating rate assets versus fixed rate assets
 Minimal cost for extending funding/hedging out the yield curve
 Swap market imbalance provides attractive pay fixed swap rates
 Term funding levels are cheap on an absolute and relative basis
 Some product sectors have lagged the rally in treasuries
 Management teams express optimism about 2016 loan prospects
Where Should I Focus?
Current Market Opportunities1
 Lock-in attractive funding cost
 Core or wholesale funding
 Extension of term funding
 Hedging floating rate holding company debt
 Commercial loan hedging
 Floating rate securities – natural or DIY
1 Appropriate
for many A/LM profiles. These opportunities may not be consistent with your goals or your specific A/LM profile. Many
other strategies or combinations of strategies are available that can support your specific goals and A/LM profile.
Balance Sheet Driven Performance
Attributes:
 Primarily focuses on
bank performance
 Utilizes all parts of the
balance sheet
 Considers appropriate
risks
Earnings
Liquidity
EAR
Balance
Sheet
CAR
EVE
Considers all Sectors:
 Loans
 Deposits
 Bonds
 Wholesale funding
 Derivatives
Funding Opportunities
The market is providing an excellent opportunity to lock in
attractive funding costs or extend funding maturities
3.00
3.00
2.50
2.50
2.00
2.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.50
-0.50
-1.00
0.00
-1.50
Feb-08
1M
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
1Y
2Y
Feb-16
 Focus on 4-year through 6-year part of the curve
 4-year swap rate is approximately 1.00%
 Only “costs” about 25 bps to extend to 6-years
3Y
4Y
5Y
6Y
7Y
8Y
9Y
10Y 11Y 12Y 13Y 14Y 15Y
Why Use Swap?
Swaps provide big funding cost advantage versus Advances
3.00
2.50
2/22/2016 FHLB Chicago Symmetric Advance Rates
2/22/2016 USD Swap Curve
2.00
2/22/2016 Advances vs. Swaps
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
1M
1Y
Sources: Bloomberg, FHLB Chicago
2Y
3Y
4Y
5Y
6Y
7Y
8Y
9Y
10Y
Funding Opportunities
Consider locking in funding costs on:
 Floating rate FHLB advances
 Floating rate holding company debt
 Floating rate core deposits
Consider forward starting swaps to lock in future funding costs on:
 Floating rate FHLB advances
 Fixed rate FHLB advances maturing in the next year
 Floating rate holding company debt
Consider extending funding maturities on:
 Maturing brokered CDs
 Maturing FHLB advances
Basel III, Dodd-Frank and their Effects on the Market
 January 8, 2016 - U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) provides
no-action relief to small bank holding companies
 Allows small bank holding companies to elect not to clear a swap
 Similar to small bank ($10 billion of assets) clearing exemption
 Small bank holding companies can now execute bi-lateral swaps
 Allows small bank holding companies to avoid significant clearing costs for the few swaps
they may execute
 Trades will be done on bi-lateral basis with counterparty of choice
 Must make affirmative election
 Must follow the same exemption election process as proscribed for small banks
Create Attractive Funding Costs Using Swaps
Example:
Bank would like to take advantage of current rate environment by converting
FHLB floating rate funding to fixed rate funding.
Fixed Rate Equivalent using interest rate swaps:
Term
Rate
+300PV
3-year = 1.10%
+ 7.9%
4-year = 1.20%
+11.1%
5-year = 1.32%
+13.6%
6-year = 1.44%
+15.9%
7-year = 1.54%
+18.3%
10-year = 1.79%
+24.5%
4-year, 5-year and 6-year ladder = 1.32%
+13.5%
Amount: $9 million
Index: 3-month LIBOR
Floating: Quarterly
Current: .80%
+300 PV: +.75%
Create Attractive Funding Costs Using Forward
Starting Swaps
Example:
Bank would like to take advantage of current rate environment by fixing the
rate on FHLB advances that mature in December 2016
Fixed Rate using forward starting interest rate swaps:
Term
Rate
+300PV
3-year = 1.26%
+ 8.8%
4-year = 1.38%
+11.5%
5-year = 1.49%
+13.9%
6-year = 1.60%
+16.2%
7-year = 1.69%
+18.5%
10-year = 1.92%
+24.5%
4-year, 5-year and 6-year ladder = 1.49%
+13.9%
Amount: $9 million
Rate: 2.50%
Maturity: 12/1/2016
+300 PV: +2.2%
Extend the Maturity of Funding with Brokered VDs
Funding Opportunities
Works for:
 Floating rate FHLB advances
 Floating rate holding company debt
 Floating rate core deposits
 Fixed rate FHLB advances maturing in the next year (or later)
 Floating rate holding company debt
 Funding maturity extension
Commercial Loan Hedging
1. Unhedged fixed rate loan
 An unhedged fixed rate loan creates a floating interest margin
 Exacerbates interest rate risk already on the balance sheet
 Loan is fixed rate when rates rise, effectively floating as rates fall
2. Match funding
 Traditional “hedging” method for fixed rate lending; least efficient but protects margin
 Prepayment discipline on the loan is critical, particularly in a falling rate environment
 Requires adding new funding…which may not be needed
3. Commercial loan hedging




Using interest rate swaps to hedge individual commercial loans
Most efficient vehicle to hedge fixed rate commercial loans
Meets customer needs and bank needs simultaneously
Regional and superregional banks have been using these products since the early
1990’s in lieu of fixed rate lending – more and more middle market and community
banks embracing these products
Commercial Loan Hedging
Commercial Loan Hedging
Using VSIRP’s loan hedging platform, you have three different options for
offering fixed rate financing to your borrowers
 Each provides identical economic characteristics
 Each uses an identical pay fixed swap to create
 Choose the one most appropriate for your borrower
 Fixed Rate Loan – the traditional fixed rate loan…plus a prepayment
penalty
 SMART Loan – VSIRP’s proprietary product. As simple as the fixed rate
loan with additional fee income and accounting benefits
 Back-to-Back Swap – The traditional method employed by the big
banks. Provides slightly more flexibility, but with added complexity and
added compliance and reporting requirements
Commercial Loan Hedging
Hedged Solutions
Back to Back
SMART Loan
Fixed Rate Loan
Hedge
Note Type
Floating Rate
Floating Rate + Modification
Fixed Rate
Does Borrower Have “Swap”?
Yes, separate contract
No, derivative embedded in Loan
No
Documentation
ISDA Master+ CICI +ECP
Addendum to Note
Fixed Rate Note w/prepay
provision
Reported to SDR?
Yes
No
No
Must Borrower be Eligible Contract
Participant?
Yes
No
No
Reduces Rate Risk?
Yes
Yes
Yes
Fee Income Potential?
Yes
Yes
No
Borrower Has Gain Potential?
Yes
Yes
Yes
Option to Prepay Without Penalty?
Yes
Yes
Yes
Allows funding flexibility?
Yes
Yes
Yes
Fixed to Float Structure?
Yes
Yes
Yes
Accounting Treatment
Mark-to-Market
Mark-to-Market
Hedge Accounting
Commercial Loan Hedging
Loan Hedging Swap Rates
Floating Rate
2-Year
3-Year
4-Year
5-Year
6-Year
7-Year
8-Year
9-Year
10-Year
12-Year
15-Year
LIBOR + 2.00%
LIBOR + 2.00%
LIBOR + 2.00%
LIBOR + 2.00%
LIBOR + 2.00%
LIBOR + 2.00%
3-Year
2.83%
2.87%
5-Year
2.84%
2.93%
2.99%
3.02%
7-Year
2.85%
2.95%
3.03%
3.11%
3.16%
3.18%
LIBOR + 2.00%
LIBOR + 2.00%
LIBOR + 2.00%
LIBOR + 2.00%
Cus tomer Pa ys Fi xed, Monthl y, Act/360
LIBOR + 2.00%
Cus tomer Recei ves 1-Month LIBOR + 2.00%
Amortization Term (Years)
10-Year
15-Year
20-Year
2.85%
2.85%
2.85%
2.96%
2.97%
2.97%
3.05%
3.06%
3.07%
3.15%
3.17%
3.18%
3.23%
3.27%
3.29%
3.30%
3.36%
3.38%
3.35%
3.44%
3.47%
3.39%
3.51%
3.55%
3.40%
3.56%
3.61%
3.63%
3.71%
3.67%
3.80%
25-Year
2.86%
2.97%
3.07%
3.19%
3.30%
3.40%
3.49%
3.57%
3.64%
3.75%
3.85%
Bullet
2.85%
2.97%
3.08%
3.20%
3.31%
3.42%
3.52%
3.61%
3.69%
3.81%
3.94%
Bank receives a floating rate of LIBOR +200bps or 2.42% currently for all customer fixed rates
shown above
Commercial Loan Hedging
Commercial loan hedging allow lenders to offer longer term fixed rates that are
converted to a floating rate using an interest rate swap
1. New credits
 - Offer attractive long term fixed rates
 - Compete with larger competitors
2. Existing Loans
 - For existing loans that may be coming up for renewal, offer the
opportunity to lock in at historically low interest rates
 - Proactively approach your customers / keep competitors away
Floating Rate Securities
Floating Rate Product Spectrum
Sector
CMO
SBA
Yields (TEY)
.60% to .80%
1.30% to 1.50%
Adjusts
Mthly or Qrtly
Mthly or Qrtly
Mthly or Qrtly
Qrtly
Caps
varies
none
varies
none
+300 Price Volatility
2.3%
-2.0%
-2.0%
0% to +5.0%
Amortizing
Amortizing
Bullet
Bullet
20% (agencies)
0%
20% or 100%
20% or 50%
Cash Flow
Risk Weighting
TEY - A rated Municipal Example (C-Corp, 34% tax rate, 2.00% cost of funds).
Corporates
DIY Muni
1.60% to 2.15% 1.80% to 2.10%
Munis Provide Attractive Spreads vs Swaps
6.00
5.00
Area of
maximum
spread pick-up
BQ TEY S-Corp
4.00
BQ TEY C-corp
LIBOR Swap Rates
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1Y
2Y
Sources: Bloomberg, Vining Sparks
3Y
5Y
10Y
15Y
20Y
25Y
30Y
Munis Provide Attractive Spreads vs Swaps
Historical Spreads 20-Year BQ Muni vs. 10-year Swap Rate
Spread
Average
100bp Above Avg
Spreads
100bp Below Avg
1/1/2010
1/1/2011
1/1/2012
1/1/2013
History
Sources: Bloomberg, Vining Sparks
1/1/2014
1/1/2015
1/1/2016
Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Floaters
Capture the relative value available on the long-end of the BQ
municipal curve while avoiding much of the price volatility associated
with long-duration investing?
Yield TEY
Fixed
3.96%
DIY Floater (hedged to maturity) 1.95%
PV
-28.7%
+ 4.7%
A rated Municipal Example (C-Corp, 34% tax rate, 2.00% cost of funds). PV = price volatility +300bps
PV/Yield
-7.24
+2.41
Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Floaters
Bond Settlements
Receive Bond Coupon:
TEY Adjustment/Premium Amortization
TEY to Maturity:
3.50%
.46%
3.96%
Swap Transaction
Pay Fixed on Swap:
Receive Floating:
(3.50%)
3-Month LIBOR +.88%
Bond + Interest Rate Swap
Swap Floating Yield:
3-Month LIBOR +.88%
Bond TEY Adjustment/Premium Amortization .46%
Net TEY Floating Yield
3-Month LIBOR +1.34% (1.95% current yield)
Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Floaters
 Credit risk – The risk that the bond defaults. This risk is present any time you own a muni and is not unique to the
floating rate* muni strategy.
 Spread/basis risk – The risk that movements in the muni replacement rate and the swap replacement rate do not
move in lock-step. If those spreads widen, the change in value of the muni will not be fully offset by the change in
value of the swap. This is an unhedgeable risk.
 Tail risk – The risk associated with hedging a callable bond only to its first call date. When a callable bond is hedged
to the call date, changes in the bond’s value related to extension risk (i.e., the bond’s expected maturity exceeds the
call date) is not hedged nor is the bond hedged past the call date. Interest rate risk is not protected past the call date
and the swap may become less effective at offsetting price volatility as the bond approaches its call date. We can
reduce this risk by using high coupon bonds in the strategy. We can also hedge this risk with a swap that matches the
maturity of the bond and includes an option giving the bank the right to cancel the swap (cancelable swap) on each of
the bond’s call dates. This type of swap will increase the cost of the swap 75 to 200bps depending on the underlying
structure of the bond and the slope of the yield curve. Tail risk can also be managed by either rehedging or
completely terminating the transaction prior to the call date.
 Floating rate risk – The risk that the yield on a floating instrument declines. In today’s market with the floating index
(3-month LIBOR) at 22bps, the maximum that the floating rate can decline is 22bps. This assumes that it is
improbable for rates to go below 0%. This is the same risk associated with any other floating rate asset or liability.
Recap
Not all news is bad




Minimal cost to add floating rate assets versus fixed rate assets
Minimal cost for extending funding/hedging out the yield curve
Swap market imbalance provides attractive pay fixed swap rates
Term funding levels are cheap on an absolute and relative basis
Market Opportunities
 Lock-in attractive funding cost
 Use interest rate swaps for greatest cost advantage
 Extend term funding in the 4-year to 6-year range
 Hedge floating rate holding company debt
 Consider commercial loan hedging program
 Add floating rate securities (where spreads are widest) – natural or
DIYs
Disclosures
INTENDED FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. The information included herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, but it is not in
any way guaranteed, and it, together with any opinions expressed, is subject to change at any time. Any and all details offered in this publication are
preliminary and are therefore subject to change at any time. This has been prepared for general information purposes only and does not consider the
specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any individual or institution. This information is, by its very nature,
incomplete and specifically lacks information critical to making final investment decisions. Investors should seek financial advice as to the
appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies mentioned or recommended. The accuracy of the financial projections is
dependent on the occurrence of future events which cannot be assured; therefore, the actual results achieved during the projection period may vary
from the projections. Interest rate swaps and derivatives are offered and sold via Vining Sparks Interest Rate Products, LLC (VSIRP). VSIRP is an
independent operating entity and is not a subsidiary of Vining Sparks IBG, LP. VSIRP is not a broker/dealer registered with the SEC. The firm may have
positions, long or short, in any or all securities mentioned. Vining Sparks is a member FINRA/SIPC.
This material was produced by a Vining Sparks Interest Rate Products representative and is not considered research and is not a product of any
research department. Employees may provide advice to investors as well as to Vining Spark's trading desk. The trading desk may trade as principal in
the products discussed in this material. Employees may have consulted with the trading desk while preparing this material and the trading desk may
have accumulated positions in the securities or related derivatives products that are the subject of this material. Employees receive compensation
which may be based in part on the quality of their analysis, Vining Sparks' revenues, trading revenues, and competitive factors. Although this
information has been obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it may be incomplete or
condensed. Opinions, historical price(s) or value(s) are as of the date and, if applicable, time, indicated. Vining Sparks Interest Rate Products does not
accept any responsibility to update any opinions or other information contained in this communication. Vining Sparks Interest Rate Products is not
providing investment advice through this material. This is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation of any product.
Securities, financial instruments, products or strategies mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors. Before acting on any advice
or recommendation in this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances. Further information on any of the
securities or financial instruments mentioned in this material may be obtained upon request.