Balance Sheet Strategies:
Transcription
Balance Sheet Strategies:
Balance Sheet Strategies: A Playbook for the Current Environment Rick Redmond Director of Balance Sheet Strategies Vining Sparks, IBG / ICBA Securities Market Environment Recap Not the rising rate environment we hoped for 25 bps Fed tightening 50 bps to 60 bps curve flattening Uncertain economic environment Great uncertainty about next rate move Flatter curve limits rewards for mismatching assets and liabilities Less than 60 bps separates the 3-month and 5-year points on the curve Not a lot of compensation for taking on additional price risk Not all news is bad Minimal cost to add floating rate assets versus fixed rate assets Minimal cost for extending funding/hedging out the yield curve Swap market imbalance provides attractive pay fixed swap rates Term funding levels are cheap on an absolute and relative basis Some product sectors have lagged the rally in treasuries Management teams express optimism about 2016 loan prospects Content Market Environment Banking Trends Current Balance Sheet Opportunities Another Lackluster Year The consensus of economists is that the U.S. economy will endure another year of lackluster growth in 2016. 2.60% Forecast GDP 2.40% 2.40% 2.20% Bloomberg Median Vining Sparks Federal Reserve Sources: Bloomberg Survey of Economists, FOMC December 2015 SEP, IMF U.S. Outlook, Vining Sparks IMF 2016 – How Many Rate Hikes? The markets will once again take their lead from the Fed in 2016, and the number of rate hikes is the key focus. 4.0 3.78 3.50 3.5 3.41 Dec. 2014 FOMC Projections 3.0 Dec. 2015 FOMC Projections 2.54 2.41 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.29 1.13 1.0 0.5 0.35 0.0 2015 YE Target Rate 2016 YE Target Rate 2017 YE Target Rate Sources: FOMC Summary of Economic Projections, Vining Sparks Longer Run Pop Quiz Which was most recent: The iPhone or the last Fed rate hike prior to December 2015? Last Fed rate hike prior to December 2015? a. 2008 b. 2007 c. 2006 d. 2005 iPhone introduction a. 2008 b. 2007 c. 2006 d. 2005 Different Economic Environment In every other rate hike experience during the Modern Fed era, there has either been a hot labor market, inflationary pressures building, or both. Today’s environment is much more fragile. Feb ‘94 Rate Inc. Amount Rate Inc. Duration Mar ‘97 Jun ‘99 Jun ‘04 Dec ‘15 300 bps 13 mos. 25 bps 1 mos. 175 bps 12 mos. 425 bps 25 mos. N/A N/A Unemployment Participation Hourly Earnings 6.6% 62.3% 2.8% 5.2% 63.6% 4.0% 4.3% 64.2% 3.9% 5.6% 62.3% 2.1% 5.0% 59.3% 2.0% PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation Commodity Prices Oil Prices 2.1% 2.3% +6.2% -29.7% 2.1% 1.9% +2.4% -4.9% 1.4% 1.3% -15.4% +44.5% 2.8% 2.0% +23.2% +44.9% 0.2% 1.3% -15.5% -37.0% 5.8% 6.4% 6.3% 7.1% 3.1% Nominal GDP Sources: BLS, BEA, CRB, Bloomberg, Vining Sparks Different Economic Environment Since 1970, the Fed has hiked rates 95 times. Twice nominal GDP was below 4.9%. The first was in 1982 and was followed by a 50 bps cut in the subsequent month. The second was in December 16 15 Nominal GDP at the Time of Fed Rate Hikes 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 Sources: BEA, Bloomberg, Vining Sparks 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Rate Environment Immediate aftermath of Fed tightening - increase in rates along the curve with minor curve flattening. 3.00 2.50 Dec. 2015 USD Swap Curve (immediately post Fed) Nov. 2015 USD Swap Curve (pre Fed) 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 1M 1Y 2Y Sources: Bloomberg, Vining Sparks 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 11Y 12Y 13Y 14Y 15Y Rate Environment Two months post Fed tightening - dramatic curve flattening with term rates testing 2012 lows. We’ve lost 50bps to 60 bps from 3-years out the curve. 3.00 Dec. 2015 USD Swap Curve (immediately post Fed) 2.50 Feb. 2016 USD Swap Curve (2-months post Fed) 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 1M 1Y 2Y Sources: Bloomberg, Vining Sparks 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 11Y 12Y 13Y 14Y 15Y Rate Environment Since Dec 2015, we’ve lost 50 bps to 60 bps of yield from 3-years out the curve...but the belly of the curve is still higher than the lows of 2012. 3.00 Dec. 2015 USD Swap Curve (immediately post Fed) Feb. 2016 USD Swap Curve (2-months post Fed) 2.50 Jul. 2012 USD Swap Curve 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 1M 1Y 2Y 3Y Sources: Bloomberg, Vining Sparks 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 11Y 12Y 13Y 14Y 15Y Rate Environment Two months post Fed tightening, the curve has flattened dramatically with spreads testing 2012 lows. 3.00 3-month to 5-year spreads 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 Feb-08 Feb-09 Sources: Bloomberg, Vining Sparks Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Basel III, Dodd-Frank and their Effects on the Market Swap Spreads 1 20-year Average 2 Current 3 Divergence 2-year .39% .07% -.32% 3-year .44% .01% -.43% 5-year .45% -.09% -.54% 7-year .46% -.20% -.66% 10-year .43% -.15% -.58% 30-year .29% -.47% -.76% Term Sources: Bloomberg, Vining Sparks 1 USD LIBOR Swaps versus US Treasury yields 2 January 6, 1996 to January 6, 2016 3 January 6, 2016 Basel III, Dodd-Frank and their Effects on the Market Basel III – Bank Capitalization Effect – forces banks to more carefully consider capital allocation Effect – restricts the aggregate balance sheet available to lower ROE businesses Repurchase transaction Lower margin lending activities Basel III – Bank Liquidity Effect – increase cost to transact as a result of required liquidity buffers Basel III – Bank Leverage Effect – reduction in aggregate balance sheet available to marketplace Effect – increased cost and lack of liquidity given reduction in balance sheet capacity Basel III, Dodd-Frank and their Effects on the Market Basel III Significantly limits total balance sheet available to warehouse risk Restricts the ability of financial intermediaries to transfer long-term risk from one party to another Increases the “cost” of transactions that entail an element of financing Causes securities transaction to cheapen (lower prices/ higher yields) relative to derivatives that don’t require a financing element Basel III, Dodd-Frank and their Effects on the Market Dodd-Frank – Swap Market Adds new margining and collateral requirements for all bi-lateral swaps Initial margin Variation margin Establishes mandatory clearing requirements for swaps Centralized counterparities Limits dealer-to-dealer and dealer-to-end-user exposure Initial margin Variation margin Reduces/eliminates any embedded risk premium relative to US Treasuries or other credit spread products Basel III, Dodd-Frank and their Effects on the Market Dodd-Frank – Swap Market Flows Swap market is composed of counterparties that either pay fixed or received fixed Aggregate flows are retained, hedged or matched by financial intermediaries (i.e., swap dealer, major swap participants, etc..) Balances in the flow of pay fixed and receive fixed exposure typically help keep swap spreads (swaps minus treasuries) in equilibrium Natural Receive Fixed Parties Corporate debt issuers Insurance companies Variable annuities Pension funds Rate equilibrium with balanced flows Natural Pay Fixed Parties Community Banks MBS portfolio managers REITs Asset managers Basel III, Dodd-Frank and their Effects on the Market Given collateralization and mandatory clearing requirements under Dodd-Frank, the LIBOR swap curve should no longer embed any significant risk premium relative to US Treasury yields Swap rates should trade as a segregated marketplace, with movements dominated by flows and liquidity Regulatory developments have restricted the aggregate balance sheet available to finance securities transactions, making securities (Treasuries in particular) structurally cheap The cheapening of Treasuries in light of regulatory developments has pushed those yields higher (relative to swaps) The shrinking balances sheet available to warehouse securities can cause relatively large flows to have an outsized impact Basel III, Dodd-Frank and their Effects on the Market More natural receive fixed to pay fixed swap flows creates less support for swap spreads, lowers relative swap rates and increases spread volatility Today’s market imbalance creates opportunities for natural pay fixed parties (i.e. Community Banks) Natural Receive Fixed Parties Corporate debt issuers Insurance companies Variable annuities Pension funds Rate with balanced flows Rate with imbalanced flows Natural Pay Fixed Parties Community Banks MBS portfolio managers REITs Asset managers Banking Trends Impact IRR Profiles Downward trend in NIM Increase in maturities of assets The changing composition of liabilities The potential impact of a rising-rate environment on interest income and expense, and the value of investment portfolios Downward NIM Trend Increase in Asset Maturities Sources: FDIC Long-term assets represent 34.1% of total assets for community banks. Long-term assets at community banks exceeded the 25.8% held by the banking industry and the 24.5% for non-community banks. In 12 out of last 15 quarters, community banks have increased their holdings of long-term assets. Long-term funding has not grown at the same rate. This imbalance may lead to an increase in interest rate risk. Changing Funding Mix Deposit and Brokered Funding Mix 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 Sources: FDIC Interest-bearing deposits Noninterest-bearing deposits Time deposits Brokered and wholesale funding Market Environment Recap Not all news is bad Minimal cost to add floating rate assets versus fixed rate assets Minimal cost for extending funding/hedging out the yield curve Swap market imbalance provides attractive pay fixed swap rates Term funding levels are cheap on an absolute and relative basis Some product sectors have lagged the rally in treasuries Management teams express optimism about 2016 loan prospects Where Should I Focus? Current Market Opportunities1 Lock-in attractive funding cost Core or wholesale funding Extension of term funding Hedging floating rate holding company debt Commercial loan hedging Floating rate securities – natural or DIY 1 Appropriate for many A/LM profiles. These opportunities may not be consistent with your goals or your specific A/LM profile. Many other strategies or combinations of strategies are available that can support your specific goals and A/LM profile. Balance Sheet Driven Performance Attributes: Primarily focuses on bank performance Utilizes all parts of the balance sheet Considers appropriate risks Earnings Liquidity EAR Balance Sheet CAR EVE Considers all Sectors: Loans Deposits Bonds Wholesale funding Derivatives Funding Opportunities The market is providing an excellent opportunity to lock in attractive funding costs or extend funding maturities 3.00 3.00 2.50 2.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 1.00 1.50 0.50 1.00 0.00 0.50 -0.50 -1.00 0.00 -1.50 Feb-08 1M Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 1Y 2Y Feb-16 Focus on 4-year through 6-year part of the curve 4-year swap rate is approximately 1.00% Only “costs” about 25 bps to extend to 6-years 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 11Y 12Y 13Y 14Y 15Y Why Use Swap? Swaps provide big funding cost advantage versus Advances 3.00 2.50 2/22/2016 FHLB Chicago Symmetric Advance Rates 2/22/2016 USD Swap Curve 2.00 2/22/2016 Advances vs. Swaps 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 1M 1Y Sources: Bloomberg, FHLB Chicago 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y Funding Opportunities Consider locking in funding costs on: Floating rate FHLB advances Floating rate holding company debt Floating rate core deposits Consider forward starting swaps to lock in future funding costs on: Floating rate FHLB advances Fixed rate FHLB advances maturing in the next year Floating rate holding company debt Consider extending funding maturities on: Maturing brokered CDs Maturing FHLB advances Basel III, Dodd-Frank and their Effects on the Market January 8, 2016 - U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) provides no-action relief to small bank holding companies Allows small bank holding companies to elect not to clear a swap Similar to small bank ($10 billion of assets) clearing exemption Small bank holding companies can now execute bi-lateral swaps Allows small bank holding companies to avoid significant clearing costs for the few swaps they may execute Trades will be done on bi-lateral basis with counterparty of choice Must make affirmative election Must follow the same exemption election process as proscribed for small banks Create Attractive Funding Costs Using Swaps Example: Bank would like to take advantage of current rate environment by converting FHLB floating rate funding to fixed rate funding. Fixed Rate Equivalent using interest rate swaps: Term Rate +300PV 3-year = 1.10% + 7.9% 4-year = 1.20% +11.1% 5-year = 1.32% +13.6% 6-year = 1.44% +15.9% 7-year = 1.54% +18.3% 10-year = 1.79% +24.5% 4-year, 5-year and 6-year ladder = 1.32% +13.5% Amount: $9 million Index: 3-month LIBOR Floating: Quarterly Current: .80% +300 PV: +.75% Create Attractive Funding Costs Using Forward Starting Swaps Example: Bank would like to take advantage of current rate environment by fixing the rate on FHLB advances that mature in December 2016 Fixed Rate using forward starting interest rate swaps: Term Rate +300PV 3-year = 1.26% + 8.8% 4-year = 1.38% +11.5% 5-year = 1.49% +13.9% 6-year = 1.60% +16.2% 7-year = 1.69% +18.5% 10-year = 1.92% +24.5% 4-year, 5-year and 6-year ladder = 1.49% +13.9% Amount: $9 million Rate: 2.50% Maturity: 12/1/2016 +300 PV: +2.2% Extend the Maturity of Funding with Brokered VDs Funding Opportunities Works for: Floating rate FHLB advances Floating rate holding company debt Floating rate core deposits Fixed rate FHLB advances maturing in the next year (or later) Floating rate holding company debt Funding maturity extension Commercial Loan Hedging 1. Unhedged fixed rate loan An unhedged fixed rate loan creates a floating interest margin Exacerbates interest rate risk already on the balance sheet Loan is fixed rate when rates rise, effectively floating as rates fall 2. Match funding Traditional “hedging” method for fixed rate lending; least efficient but protects margin Prepayment discipline on the loan is critical, particularly in a falling rate environment Requires adding new funding…which may not be needed 3. Commercial loan hedging Using interest rate swaps to hedge individual commercial loans Most efficient vehicle to hedge fixed rate commercial loans Meets customer needs and bank needs simultaneously Regional and superregional banks have been using these products since the early 1990’s in lieu of fixed rate lending – more and more middle market and community banks embracing these products Commercial Loan Hedging Commercial Loan Hedging Using VSIRP’s loan hedging platform, you have three different options for offering fixed rate financing to your borrowers Each provides identical economic characteristics Each uses an identical pay fixed swap to create Choose the one most appropriate for your borrower Fixed Rate Loan – the traditional fixed rate loan…plus a prepayment penalty SMART Loan – VSIRP’s proprietary product. As simple as the fixed rate loan with additional fee income and accounting benefits Back-to-Back Swap – The traditional method employed by the big banks. Provides slightly more flexibility, but with added complexity and added compliance and reporting requirements Commercial Loan Hedging Hedged Solutions Back to Back SMART Loan Fixed Rate Loan Hedge Note Type Floating Rate Floating Rate + Modification Fixed Rate Does Borrower Have “Swap”? Yes, separate contract No, derivative embedded in Loan No Documentation ISDA Master+ CICI +ECP Addendum to Note Fixed Rate Note w/prepay provision Reported to SDR? Yes No No Must Borrower be Eligible Contract Participant? Yes No No Reduces Rate Risk? Yes Yes Yes Fee Income Potential? Yes Yes No Borrower Has Gain Potential? Yes Yes Yes Option to Prepay Without Penalty? Yes Yes Yes Allows funding flexibility? Yes Yes Yes Fixed to Float Structure? Yes Yes Yes Accounting Treatment Mark-to-Market Mark-to-Market Hedge Accounting Commercial Loan Hedging Loan Hedging Swap Rates Floating Rate 2-Year 3-Year 4-Year 5-Year 6-Year 7-Year 8-Year 9-Year 10-Year 12-Year 15-Year LIBOR + 2.00% LIBOR + 2.00% LIBOR + 2.00% LIBOR + 2.00% LIBOR + 2.00% LIBOR + 2.00% 3-Year 2.83% 2.87% 5-Year 2.84% 2.93% 2.99% 3.02% 7-Year 2.85% 2.95% 3.03% 3.11% 3.16% 3.18% LIBOR + 2.00% LIBOR + 2.00% LIBOR + 2.00% LIBOR + 2.00% Cus tomer Pa ys Fi xed, Monthl y, Act/360 LIBOR + 2.00% Cus tomer Recei ves 1-Month LIBOR + 2.00% Amortization Term (Years) 10-Year 15-Year 20-Year 2.85% 2.85% 2.85% 2.96% 2.97% 2.97% 3.05% 3.06% 3.07% 3.15% 3.17% 3.18% 3.23% 3.27% 3.29% 3.30% 3.36% 3.38% 3.35% 3.44% 3.47% 3.39% 3.51% 3.55% 3.40% 3.56% 3.61% 3.63% 3.71% 3.67% 3.80% 25-Year 2.86% 2.97% 3.07% 3.19% 3.30% 3.40% 3.49% 3.57% 3.64% 3.75% 3.85% Bullet 2.85% 2.97% 3.08% 3.20% 3.31% 3.42% 3.52% 3.61% 3.69% 3.81% 3.94% Bank receives a floating rate of LIBOR +200bps or 2.42% currently for all customer fixed rates shown above Commercial Loan Hedging Commercial loan hedging allow lenders to offer longer term fixed rates that are converted to a floating rate using an interest rate swap 1. New credits - Offer attractive long term fixed rates - Compete with larger competitors 2. Existing Loans - For existing loans that may be coming up for renewal, offer the opportunity to lock in at historically low interest rates - Proactively approach your customers / keep competitors away Floating Rate Securities Floating Rate Product Spectrum Sector CMO SBA Yields (TEY) .60% to .80% 1.30% to 1.50% Adjusts Mthly or Qrtly Mthly or Qrtly Mthly or Qrtly Qrtly Caps varies none varies none +300 Price Volatility 2.3% -2.0% -2.0% 0% to +5.0% Amortizing Amortizing Bullet Bullet 20% (agencies) 0% 20% or 100% 20% or 50% Cash Flow Risk Weighting TEY - A rated Municipal Example (C-Corp, 34% tax rate, 2.00% cost of funds). Corporates DIY Muni 1.60% to 2.15% 1.80% to 2.10% Munis Provide Attractive Spreads vs Swaps 6.00 5.00 Area of maximum spread pick-up BQ TEY S-Corp 4.00 BQ TEY C-corp LIBOR Swap Rates 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 1Y 2Y Sources: Bloomberg, Vining Sparks 3Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y Munis Provide Attractive Spreads vs Swaps Historical Spreads 20-Year BQ Muni vs. 10-year Swap Rate Spread Average 100bp Above Avg Spreads 100bp Below Avg 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 History Sources: Bloomberg, Vining Sparks 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Floaters Capture the relative value available on the long-end of the BQ municipal curve while avoiding much of the price volatility associated with long-duration investing? Yield TEY Fixed 3.96% DIY Floater (hedged to maturity) 1.95% PV -28.7% + 4.7% A rated Municipal Example (C-Corp, 34% tax rate, 2.00% cost of funds). PV = price volatility +300bps PV/Yield -7.24 +2.41 Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Floaters Bond Settlements Receive Bond Coupon: TEY Adjustment/Premium Amortization TEY to Maturity: 3.50% .46% 3.96% Swap Transaction Pay Fixed on Swap: Receive Floating: (3.50%) 3-Month LIBOR +.88% Bond + Interest Rate Swap Swap Floating Yield: 3-Month LIBOR +.88% Bond TEY Adjustment/Premium Amortization .46% Net TEY Floating Yield 3-Month LIBOR +1.34% (1.95% current yield) Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Floaters Credit risk – The risk that the bond defaults. This risk is present any time you own a muni and is not unique to the floating rate* muni strategy. Spread/basis risk – The risk that movements in the muni replacement rate and the swap replacement rate do not move in lock-step. If those spreads widen, the change in value of the muni will not be fully offset by the change in value of the swap. This is an unhedgeable risk. Tail risk – The risk associated with hedging a callable bond only to its first call date. When a callable bond is hedged to the call date, changes in the bond’s value related to extension risk (i.e., the bond’s expected maturity exceeds the call date) is not hedged nor is the bond hedged past the call date. Interest rate risk is not protected past the call date and the swap may become less effective at offsetting price volatility as the bond approaches its call date. We can reduce this risk by using high coupon bonds in the strategy. We can also hedge this risk with a swap that matches the maturity of the bond and includes an option giving the bank the right to cancel the swap (cancelable swap) on each of the bond’s call dates. This type of swap will increase the cost of the swap 75 to 200bps depending on the underlying structure of the bond and the slope of the yield curve. Tail risk can also be managed by either rehedging or completely terminating the transaction prior to the call date. Floating rate risk – The risk that the yield on a floating instrument declines. In today’s market with the floating index (3-month LIBOR) at 22bps, the maximum that the floating rate can decline is 22bps. This assumes that it is improbable for rates to go below 0%. This is the same risk associated with any other floating rate asset or liability. Recap Not all news is bad Minimal cost to add floating rate assets versus fixed rate assets Minimal cost for extending funding/hedging out the yield curve Swap market imbalance provides attractive pay fixed swap rates Term funding levels are cheap on an absolute and relative basis Market Opportunities Lock-in attractive funding cost Use interest rate swaps for greatest cost advantage Extend term funding in the 4-year to 6-year range Hedge floating rate holding company debt Consider commercial loan hedging program Add floating rate securities (where spreads are widest) – natural or DIYs Disclosures INTENDED FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. The information included herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, but it is not in any way guaranteed, and it, together with any opinions expressed, is subject to change at any time. Any and all details offered in this publication are preliminary and are therefore subject to change at any time. This has been prepared for general information purposes only and does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any individual or institution. This information is, by its very nature, incomplete and specifically lacks information critical to making final investment decisions. Investors should seek financial advice as to the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies mentioned or recommended. The accuracy of the financial projections is dependent on the occurrence of future events which cannot be assured; therefore, the actual results achieved during the projection period may vary from the projections. 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