possibilities of dh sector investments in poland

DBDH ANNUAL MEETING 27TH NOV 2014
POSSIBILITIES OF DH SECTOR
INVESTMENTS IN POLAND –
WHAT, WHY, HOW AND WHERE
POSSIBILITIES OF DH SECTOR INVESTMENTS IN POLAND
2014/11/27
RAMBOLL POLSKA SP. Z O.O. SEATED IN
WARSAW
• In operation on Polish market since 1990
• Previous name Elsamprojekt, owned by Elsam/DONG Energy
• Acquired by Ramboll in 2011
• Active on the market of energy investments as Owners
Engineer
• Active on the DH market
www.ramboll.pl
www.ramboll.com/energy
POSSIBILITIES OF DH SECTOR INVESTMENTS IN POLAND
2014/11/27
2
POSSIBILITIES OF DH SECTOR INVESTMENTS
IN POLAND – WHAT, WHY, HOW AND WHERE
• Investments in thermal energy sector – amounts to be spent
till 2020/2023
• Most likely types of projects – new CHPs, HOBs,
refurbishments of Plants and DH networks
• Supporting Regime in DH and influence on the fuel choice, if
any
• How Danish DH sector could do business – types of clients
• Map of expected DH investments
POSSIBILITIES OF DH SECTOR INVESTMENTS IN POLAND
2014/11/27
3
INVESTMENTS IN THERMAL ENERGY SECTOR
– AMOUNTS TO BE SPENT TILL 2020/2023
•
Energy sector to invest 129 billion PLN till 2020 including generation
and distribution, out of this 18 billion PLN for cogeneration
•
PGE to construct 187MWe in gas cogeneration (+1100MW in the
pipeline) – around 4.3 billion to be spent
•
ENEA to construct 300MWe and 1500MWt in cogeneration – around
3.2 billion including DH networks
•
Tauron to construct 120MWe in coal cogeneration plus 630MWe in gas
cogeneration – 1.8 billion to be spent
•
Energa to spent 1.1 billion for cogeneration plants
•
EDF to spent 1.9 billion for modernization of cogeneration plants
POSSIBILITIES OF DH SECTOR INVESTMENTS IN POLAND
2014/11/27
4
INVESTMENTS IN THERMAL ENERGY SECTOR
– AMOUNTS TO BE SPENT TILL 2020/2023
•
PGNiG Termika to construct gas fired 670MWe – 1.7 billion to be spent
•
PKN Orlen to construct gas fired 900MWe – 2.3 billion to be spent
•
JSW to construct 2 CHPs with 151MWe – 0.7 billion to be spent,
•
Remaining players (HOB,DH) – 1 billion to be spent, most of them by
Veolia (former Dalkia)
There is a potential of 5000MWe if we refurbish existing HOB
assets into cogeneration plants
POSSIBILITIES OF DH SECTOR INVESTMENTS IN POLAND
2014/11/27
5
MOST LIKELY TYPES OF PROJECTS – NEW
CHPS, HOBS, REFURBISHMENTS OF PLANTS
AND DH NETWORKS
• Optimization of existing assets
• Construction of new CHP/HOB
• Construction of heat transmission/distribution network
• Pro-environmental projects to reduce emissions
In particular, we try to analyse at least the following types of projects:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Coal fired CHP
Biomass CHP – wood chips, pellets,
straw in bales
WTE fuelled with municipal wastes/ RDF
Gas engines
CCGT (combined cycle)
GT with water boiler
Solar – as supplementary solution
•
•
•
•
Hybrid and mixed systems (biomass +
gas)
Heat transmission for long distance
(connection of heat receivers to existing
CHP)
Heat accumulator
Smart City idea
- tbc…
POSSIBILITIES OF DH SECTOR INVESTMENTS IN POLAND
2014/11/27
6
SMART CITY
•
Biogas produced in sewage treatment
plant,
•
Introduction of biogas into gas network,
•
Multifuel CHP – local biomass and biogas,
•
Heat accumulation,
•
District heating and cooling,
•
Prosument – microgeneration
•
Power accumulation in electric cars
•
Heat pumps in cooperation with solar and
biomass boiler
POSSIBILITIES OF DH SECTOR INVESTMENTS IN POLAND
2014/11/27
7
SUPPORTING REGIME IN DH AND INFLUENCE
ON THE FUEL CHOICE, IF ANY
Heat generation and distribution regulated by URE with negotiated return on
investments
Red certificates to support coal fired cogeneration
Red certificates amounts to 9PLN/MWh and this supporting scheme will continue only till 2018
Yellow certificates to support gas fired cogeneration
Yellow certificates amounts to 110PLN/MWh and many CCGT are not in operation, this supporting
scheme will continue till 2018
Green certificates to support biogas based cogeneration
Green certificates to support biomass cogeneration
Green certificates to support biogas amounts to 170PLN/MWh of electricity and there are lots of
problems
Green certificates system will be changed into auction type feed-in tariff system since 2016
Prioritised renewable heat offtake
however…
POSSIBILITIES OF DH SECTOR INVESTMENTS IN POLAND
2014/11/27
8
SUPPORTING REGIME IN DH AND INFLUENCE
ON THE FUEL CHOICE
In the Ministry of Economy there is a Road Map of Heat and Cooling in
Poland being completed and after that after that
1. They will prepare new cogeneration supporting system in 2015
2. There is a draft of new Decree being prepared in the Ministry of
Economy how to support cogeneration investments from EU funds
2014-2021
3. There are EU funds approved for Poland to be allocated for high
efficiency cogeneration, the exact amounts to be announced in 2015
POSSIBILITIES OF DH SECTOR INVESTMENTS IN POLAND
2014/11/27
9
HOW DANISH DH SECTOR COULD DO BUSINESS
– TYPES OF CLIENTS
• Traditional Scandinavian investment model
• Traditional Polish investment model
• Supplies of goods and services to the Investors – Public Procurement
Law
• Cooperation with EPC contractors – companies to follow in Poland:
Alstom
GE
Siemens
Mitsubishi Hitachi
but also
Control Process
Volund
Energoinstal
BWSC
Energomontaz Zachod
Aalborg Engineering
Erbud
Metso/Valmont
Polimex Mostostal
Andritz,
Mostostal Warszawa
Bilfinger
Mostostal Zabrze
Weiss/Envikraft
Rafako
DP Cleantech
Budimex
Logstor
POSSIBILITIES OF DH SECTOR INVESTMENTS IN POLAND
2014/11/27
10
MAP OF EXPECTED DH INVESTMENTS
COAL
1. Bytom – Fortum new coal fired boiler 2015 –
2. Bielsko-Biala – Tauron new coal fired boiler 2016 -
GAS
1. Plock – PKN Orlen new CCGT 20152. Konin – ZE PAK new CCGT 2015 3. Warszawa – PGNiG Termika new CCGT 2016 4. Poznan – Dalkia new CCGT? 2015 5. Warszawa – Dalkia new CCGT? 2015 6. Elblag – new gas engines CHP, 2016 –
7. Lagisza – Tauron new CCGT 2015 8. Pruszkow – PGNiG Termika new gas engines CHP? 2016 –
9. Bydgoszcz – PGE CHP new CCGT? 2016 –
10. Torun - EDF new CCGT? 2016 –
POSSIBILITIES OF DH SECTOR INVESTMENTS IN POLAND
2014/11/27
11
MAP OF EXPECTED DH INVESTMENTS
BIOMASS
1. Szczecin – PGE Pomorzany CHP, new biomass boiler 2015 –
2. Lublin – Tergopower new biomass CHP 2015 3. Bilgoraj – Tergopower new biomass CHP 2016 -
WTE
1. Gdansk – new WTE, 2015 –
2. Olsztyn – MPEC (DH company) new WTE 2015 3. Warszawa – new WTE 2016 4. Lodz – new WTE 2016 –
5. Katowice – new WTE 2016 6. Tarnow – new WTE 2017 -
Others
1. Koszalin – MEC (DH company), refurbishment of boilers and new networks
2. Warszawa – PGNiG Termika new FGD/deNOx 2015 3. Bialystok – Enea MPEC – new FGD/deNOx, networks, boiler refurbishment 2015 –
4. Bedzin – Tauron new DH networks 2016 5. Legnica – WPEC new CHP 2017POSSIBILITIES OF DH SECTOR INVESTMENTS IN POLAND
2014/11/27
12
MAP OF EXPECTED DH INVESTMENTS
Others – Smart City cases
1. Warsaw – Bio gas petrol stations at the Sewage Water
Treatment Plant 20162. Warsaw – district cooling 20173. Czestochowa – district cooling 2016-
POSSIBILITIES OF DH SECTOR INVESTMENTS IN POLAND
2014/11/27
13
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
www.ramboll.pl
www.ramboll.com/energy
Krzysztof Jaworski
Managing Director Ramboll Polska
krzj@ramboll.com
POSSIBILITIES OF DH SECTOR INVESTMENTS IN POLAND
2014/11/27
14