Best Practices in Attracting, Selecting, and Retaining Talents

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Predictive Analytics:
Best Practices in Attracting,
Selecting, and Retaining Talents
Presentation to
United Portusers Logistics Summit
Liza Manalo-Mapagu
CEO of HR Avatar Philippines
Liza Manalo- Mapagu
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CEO of HR Avatar Asia
Former Managing Director of Assessment Analytics
Consulting Director of Strategic Consulting Services
Assistant General Manager of Eduquest, Inc.
Director of Center for Educational Assessment and Research, Human
Resource Development Center at the De La Salle-University-College of Saint
Benilde
Head of Evaluation of De La Salle University-Institutional Testing and
Evaluation Office
Competency Profiling and Assessment projects for major corporations in the
Philippines.
A BS Psychology graduate from University of Sto.Tomas
Master’s Degree in Measurement and Evaluation at De La Salle University
Ph. D course in Research and Evaluation at the University of the Philippines.
Certified by British Psychological Society (BPS) on Levels A and B Assessment
Certified by SHL to Conduct Courses Under the CEB SHL Training Academy
Presentation Agenda
 Why Use Predictive Analytics?
 What is Predictive Analytics?
 How can Predictive Analytics be used for Talent Acquisition
and Development? (5 Best Strategies)
 What is HR Avatar?
 How can HR Avatar be used by HR Managers for Talent
Management
The value of talented people
“Organization doesn't really accomplish anything. Plans
don't accomplish anything, either. Theories of
management don't much matter. Endeavours succeed or
fail because of the people involved.
Only by attracting the best people will you accomplish
great deeds”
Colin Powell
former US Secretary of State
“The chances are good that up to 66% of your
company's hiring decisions will prove to be
mistakes in the first twelve months”
Peter Drucker,
The Management Guru
The cost of a Talent walking out the door
Organisational
Knowledge Lost
Performance and
motivation impact on
direct report
Time lag to competence
“the cost of employee turnover is one-and-a-half the amount of employees
monthly salary…..and the cost is even more ahigher with first year hires”
Lose talent to
The PWC
Saratoga Review, 2008
competitor
Wasted Recruitment
Spend
Attrition is getting worse…
A growing number of new hires -- as well as topperforming employees -- are choosing not to stick
around for long.
34.1% in 2013
22.6% in 2012
2014 PwC Saratoga U.S. Human Capital Effectiveness Report
The Solution
Organizations are turning to predictive
analytics to boost their "quality of hire," and
thus reduce the likelihood of first-year
turnover
The PWC Saratoga Review, 2014
Predictive Analytics Defined
Predictive analytics is the branch of data mining
concerned with forecasting probabilities. The technique
uses variables that can be measured to predict the
future behavior of a person or other entity.
Predictive Analytics Defined
Predictive analytics is the technology that learns from data to make
predictions about what each individual will do — from thriving and
donating to stealing and crashing your car,“
The power to predict who will click, buy, lie or die.
How can predictive analytics benefit
your pre-employment hiring process
by Jeff Furts
Benefits of Predictive Analytics for TA
1. Predictive analytics will help you improve your quality hire
hiring process
• performance
• attrition data
• engagement survey
data
pre-employment assessment results,
interview results, recruiting sources,
personal data
2. Predictive analytics will help you source more
efficiently and effectively
Hiring managers
can trace the
hire back to the
original hiring
source and then
link that to
quality of hire.
3. Predictive analytics will help you improve your speed of
hire.
Assessment Methods - Validity
1
PERFECT PREDICTION – Impossibly Good
0.70-0.99
0.60-0.69
Work Sample tests
0.50-0.59
Ability Tests / Structured Interviews
0.40-0.49
Job Knowledge Tests / Group Exercises / Personality Questionnaires
0.30-0.39
Assessment Centres (poorly designed and facilitated)
0.20-0.29
References
0.10-0.19
CV’s/Resumes / Years of Work Experience
Academic Results / Years of Education
0.01-0.09
Graphology / Age
0.00
CHANCE PREDICTION – Impossibly Bad
Source: Journal of Occupational and Organisational Psychology (2001), 74,
441 – 472. Robertson, I.T & Smith, M.
Benefits of Predictive Analytics for TA
“The objective of predictive analytics applied to
recruiting is to help organizations more effectively
deploy resources, and drive higher quality and greater
longevity of new hires.”
What do you want to predict?
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Job Fit
Culture Fit
Performance
Retention
Potential
Trainability
How to use predictive analytics for
predicting:
•Trainability
•High Performance
•Culture Fit
Competencies is at the heart of the human capital
management cycle….
Measure
Foster
engagement
Retain
Talent
Quality of
Hire
Acquire
Talent
COMPETENCIES
Succession
planning
Deploy
Reward
Talent
Development
needs
Assess for
potential
Talent
Develop Talent
Talent
matching
Career
pathing
A Competency is:
• “a cluster of related knowledge, skills and
attitudes that affects a major part of one’s job
(a role or responsibility) that correlates with
performance on the job.
Types of Competencies
• Threshold
• Differentiating
• Core
• Technical
(Spencer & Spencer, 1993)
Types of Competencies
“Threshold” are essential characteristics
required for all job incumbents to perform the
job at a minimal level of proficiency.
Example: Cognitive Ability, Language
Proficiency, Positive Work Attitude, Basic
Skills
To predict: TRAINABILITY
POTENTIAL
Types of Competencies
“Differentiating” competencies distinguish superior
from average performers.
Example:
 Results-Orientation, Multi-Tasking, Selling and
Negotiation, Customer Service, Quality Focus
To predict: HIGH PERFORMANCE
Types of Competencies
Core competencies are characteristics that must be
possessed by every member regardless of their level
of performance; they extend to all individuals in the
organization.
Core competencies support the
organization's mission, vision and values
To predict: CULTURE FIT
Types of Competencies
Distinctive (Technical) competencies are position-specific
KSAs.
Example: Selling and Negotiation, Territory
Management, Product Knowledge
To predict: PERFORMANCE
Also use for TRAINING NEEDS ANALYSIS
Best Practice #1
Predicting HIGH PERFORMERS
through establishing
Success Profiles
Concurrent Validation Studies
(Internal Benchmarking Study)
Why will you set Success Profiles?
This Performance Benchmarking Study aims:
To improve the company’s ability to:
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Predict top performers
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Hire talents within the competency
standards of the company
Presentation of Data
Frontline Manager
Overall Score Comparison between High and Low Performers
Frontline Manager
Comparison between High and Low Performers
Frontline Manager
Comparison between High and Low Performers
Frontline Manager
Comparison between High and Low Performers
Frontline Manager
Comparison between High and Low Performers
Best Practice #2
Identify the best predictors of
performance through Predictive
Validation Studies
Predictive Validity
 Predictive validity is the extent to which a score or
test predicts scores on some criterion measure.
Independent Variables
(X=Predictors)
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Personal Factors
Knowledge
Skills
Attitudes
Job Satisfaction
Engagement
Dependent Variables
(Y=To be Predicted)
Job
Performance
Regression Summary Table for
Job Performance
Variables
R2
Change of R2
1. Cognitive
0.20
2. Interview
0.12
0.016
3. Job Experience
0.10
0.015
4. Education
0.09
0.010
% of Prediction
It can predict 24%
0.241
Best Practice #3
Use of assessment solution to
predict:
Trainability
Potential
Top 8 High-Impact Talent Acquisition Practices
High Impact Talent Acquisition Bersin by Deloitte, 2013
http://www.slideshare.net/jbersin/highimpact-talent-acquisitionresearch-findings
Types of Competencies
“Threshold” are essential characteristics
required for all job incumbents to perform the
job at a minimal level of proficiency.
Example: Cognitive Ability, Language
Proficiency, Positive Work Attitude, Basic
Skills
To predict: TRAINABILITY
POTENTIAL
 How can HR Avatar help you in
predicting:
TRAINABILITY?
PERFORMANCE?
Packages According to HR Initiatives
“CareerMatch”
Talent Acquisition
o Campus
Recruitment
o Professionals
o Managers
Process-People-Technology
Solution through HR Avatar
Confirmatory Job Analysis
(Threshold)
Capability Training for the
Recruitment Team on:
Design of Testing Program
Behavioral Event Interviewing
Wide Range of Assessments
Better Hires Through the Right Talent Data
Does the candidate:
Have the ability to learn and master all
aspects of the job once hired?
• Attention to detail
• Analytical thinking
Cognitive Simulation
Have personality traits that ‘fit’ the needs of
the job – to ensure tenure?
• Expressive enough for sales?
• Conscientious?
• Etc.
Personality Inventory
Have the right attitude towards work?
Personality Inventory
Have a history of behaviors that correlate
with consistency and tenure?
Behavioral History
Have the specialized skills or knowledge
needed for the job?
Skills and Knowledge Modules
Job-Specific
Based on US Government Occupational
Information Network (O*NET)
Designed exclusively for quality of hire
Each test contains:
• Animated work simulation (cognitive abilities)
• Personality inventory
• Behavioral history questionnaire
• An automatically scored essay*
• One or more job-related skills or knowledge
tests*
* Included when appropriate for the job.
Individual Test Report
Designed for quality of hire
Includes targeted interview guide
Fully supports custom profiles
Self-interpreting
Overall Weighted
Score
Individual Scores
Percentile scores
Interview Guide using
Behavioral Event Interviewing
Best Practice #4
Use of assessment solution to
predict:
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Leadership Potentials
Retention
How to use predictive analytics for predicting:
• Leadership Potential
WHO are potential candidates
to the Talent Pool?
High-Performers vs. High Potentials
High-performers give immediate
return on investment, with
estimates averaging from more
than 50% additional value, to as
much as a 100% increase in
productivity over average
performers.
iii Corporate
Leadership Council, Executive Summary, February 2005. William D. Koch, Directions: Closing the Gap Between the
Best and the Rest, Development Dimensions International, 2007.
WHO are potential candidates
to the Talent Pool?
High-potentials are typically
defined as those
demonstrating high-level
contributions, organizational
values, potential to move up
to an identified position within
a given timeframe, and
potential to assume greater
responsibility
iii Corporate
Leadership Council, Executive Summary, February 2005. William D. Koch, Directions: Closing the Gap Between the Best and the Rest,
Development Dimensions International, 2007.
“Most high-performers are NOT highpotentials BUT all high-potentials are
high-performers.”
Assessment of Leadership Potentials
Types of high-performers who fail to become
high-potentials
“Engaged Dreamers” have high motivation,
but only average ability.
“Unengaged Stars” have aspiration and
ability, but do not fully believe in their work or
organization.
“Misaligned Stars” have ability and
organizational commitment, but lack the drive
and ambition for success at the next level.
How do we assess High Potentials?
Intellectual
Interpersonal (Personality)
Engagement
Aspiration
The First-Line Supervisory Fundamentals skills test is a fast, easy
way to confirm whether a candidate has a basic understanding of
the core principles involved in supervising others.
The test asks questions from a bank of questions for testing
security purposes. HR Avatar periodically adds new questions to
this bank to prevent cheating and to stay current with
developments in leadership, management and supervisory
principles.
Topics within the discipline of supervising employees that are
covered in the test include:
• Professional Development
• Dealing with Poor Behavior
• Working with People
• Roles and Responsibilities
• Controlling
• Interviewing
HR AVATAR HIGH-POTENTIAL SOLUTION
Intellectual Fit: Analytical Thinking and Attention to Details and Accuracy
Personality Fit: The natural leader defined in Big Five terms is resilient (N-);
energetic, outgoing and persuasive (E+); visionary (O+); competitive (A-); and
dedicated to a goal (C+).
Basic Functional: Knowledge of Frontline Management Fundamentals,
Communication Skills
Motivation Fit: Aspiration to go up to the corporate ladder
Engagement: Being physically, psychologically and intellectually involved at
work.
Sample
Report
How to use predictive analytics for predicting:
• Retention
What are the drivers of
attrition and retention?
Saratoga Institute Survey Research
“Why Employees Leave”
1. New hires are disillusioned because the organization failed to
provide a realistic preview of the job
2. Employees are hired into or assigned a job that doesn’t match
their talents
3. Not getting enough performance coaching and feedback
4. Feeling devalued, ignored, and unrecognized
5. Seeing little or no opportunity for career growth and advancement
6. Feeling extreme negative stress from overwork, workplace
conflicts, and work/life imbalance
7. Loss of trust and confidence in senior leaders
Based on analysis of 19,700 surveys from 1998 through 2004 across 17 different industries.
Regarding retention - Why do people leave?
KSAOs
External
Factors
(e.g., Job
Market)
 Employee KSAOs - traits,
motivations, interests, skills,
abilities, experiences explain an estimated 10% of
workforce turnover
Job Factors
Manager
What can we do to arrest attrition?
 BETTER MANAGERS – Developing managers who know how to build teams,
manage performance, develop individuals to their full potential, and help them
achieve success on the job.
 BETTER MATCHING – Use of employee assessment that can spot and
develop people who "fit" with the job description, the company culture, and the
supervisor or manager.
 BETTER INTEGRATION -- Design of effective orientation and "Onboarding"
programs to build enthusiastic employees that stay longer.
 BETTER CONNECTIONS – Provide an environment that build productive
relationships with their co-workers and supervisors.
 BETTER CULTURE – Identify the critical drivers employees need and expect
from their job that drive high employee retention.
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Gregg Smith: “High Turnover to High Retention”
What is the role assessment in RETENTION?
Job
Factors
KSAOs
Manager
But even small effects can have
powerful business impact…
“For every 100 low scoring applicants
we screen out and instead hire 100 high
scorers, we retain 14 more people and save
$94,010 in turnover and replacement costs.”
- Actual Client example
 Employee KSAOs - traits,
motivations, interests, skills,
abilities, experiences - explain
an estimated 10% of workforce
turnover
90-Day Retention Rate
External
Factors
(e.g., Job
Market)
87.0
90
85
80
75
73.0
70
bottom 30%
top 30%
90-Day Retention Rate Comparison between Low and High
OVERALL Scorers on the PreVisor Solution
Best Practice #5
Maximize the value of giving
feedback and validation of talent data
with the talent.
The talent…a human being
Feedback and Exploration
Feedback process
Explain Dimension
Explain Position
Qualify
Probe
Explore Impact
Link
Summarise
85
• Predictive analytics offers tremendous
opportunities to use historical data in a way to
predict future behaviour.
Data may NOT tell the entire story.
Understanding the story is critical.
Imagine HR being able to
predict which new hire has
the highest probability of
turning out to be a top
performer and effective
leader?
Better breed of talents
Culture of excellence
High performing organization
People are the key to
organization’s present and
future success.
“Get the right people
on the bus.”
Jim Collins
“MEASUREMENT MATTERS:
If you cannot measure it…
you cannot manage it.”
Robert Kaplan and David Norton
Liza M. Mapagu
lizam@hravatar.com.ph
+632 917.8999180