Construction Profile - the City of Nanaimo

Nanaimo
The most desirable, livable small city
in North America
Construction Sector - 2010
Table of Contents
Construction Sector Overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Environmental Scan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Migration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Economic Conditions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Nanaimo’s Official Community Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Sector Composition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Labour Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Local Training Programs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Residential Market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Construction Activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Building Permits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Renovations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Forecast of Activity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Housing Rental Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Commercial Permits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Office Space. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Space Forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Industrial. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Appendix 1: Construction Sector Contacts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Appendix 2: Population Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
This Construction Profile is produced by the CIty of Nanaimo’s
Economic Development Office as a
service to companies and organizations that require detailed information for the Nanaimo area.
The information is collected from
a variety of sources, which are
noted in the figures and tables.
Information is updated when new
data becomes availabe.
If you require additional information, please contact our office. We
can be reached at:
455 Wallace Street
Nanaimo, BC V9R 5J6
Phone (250) 755-4465
Fax (250) 755-4404
www.nanaimo.ca/edo
Copyright 2010
Unauthorized reproduction is
strictly prohibited
City of Nanaimo – Economic Development Office
Page v
Construction Sector - 2010
The construction industry is an important contributor to Nanaimo’s economy. It is the fourth largest employment sector, providing over 3,200 jobs
for 8% of the labour force (2006 census). As of September 2010, one out
of every five businesses in Nanaimo (1,374 in total) was in the construction sector.
Construction Sector Overview
The construction industry benefits from continued population growth in
the Nanaimo area; growth has stabilized to an annual rate of just over
1.5%. The industry is adjusting to changing economic conditions that
have resulted in slower economic growth, and cautious consumer spending.
The majority of construction activity is in the residential market, which
accounted for 55% of building permit values in 2009. The Canada
Mortgage and Housing Corporation forecasts approximately 575 singledetached and 425 multiple units will be constructed in 2011. The forecasts for 2010 are similar, with 500 single-detached and 430 multiple
units.
Commercial projects account for 26% of building permit values. Nanaimo’s
role as a regional trade and service centre has generated demand for
new commercial and office space.
Based on the 2006 Census, the City of Nanaimo has 33,525 dwelling
units, and is home to 78,692 people. The 2010 population estimate for
the City of Nanaimo is 86,018. The population is growing at an annual
rate of approximately 1.5%.
Environmental Scan
In the mid 2000’s Nanaimo’s construction industry enjoyed periods of
unprecedented growth. Building permit values totalled $67.4 million in
2002, and $258.3 million in 2007. Growth in construction projects has
since slowed but is on its way to recovery.
City of Nanaimo – Economic Development Office
Page 1
Construction Sector - 2010
Migration
Nanaimo’s construction sector is impacted by migration patterns to
British Columbia. In 2009, there was a net inter-provincial inflow of 4,673
persons into British Columbia. BC’s 2009 net international immigration
was 53,349, leading to a net migration of 58,022.
Figure 1.1: Migration Forecasts
In 2009 the largest net migration gain into BC was 3,242 persons from
Ontario followed by 3,003 from Alberta and 668 from Manitoba.
Net Interprovincial Migration to BC
15,520
15000
12,799
10000
7,785
7,499
7,212
3,513
3,025
5000
0
-4,445
-5000
-7,028
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
-10000
Source: BC Statistics
Between 2008 and 2009, 607 international migrants moved to Nanaimo,
as well as 1,021 persons from other provinces and 952 from within BC.
The Nanaimo region’s net migration was 2,580 between 2008 and 2009.
Strong net migration inflows have resulted in significant growth in the last
several years although natural population increase has been negative as
deaths exceed birth rates.
Economic Conditions
Page 2
General economic conditions impact the housing market in two ways:
First, inter-provincial migration rates are strongly correlated with relative economic prospects. When employment opportunities seem positive in British Columbia, people are more likely to move here from other
provinces. Conversely, when employment opportunities improve in
areas outside of the province fewer people move here, and some British
Columbians opt to move out of the province. In the early 2000’s, the
economies of Alberta and Ontario seemed to provide good job prospects,
which resulted in a reduced in-migration to British Columbia from other
provinces. Starting in 2003, a stronger BC economy led once again to the
start of net interprovincial migration gains.
City of Nanaimo – Economic Development Office
Construction Sector - 2010
Second, general economic conditions influence the purchase behaviour of potential homebuyers. During times of strong economic growth,
consumer confidence is high, and income earning prospects are stable;
therefore, people are more likely to make major purchase decisions.
Conversely, during economic slowdown, consumers are cautious about
their spending because their continued ability to earn income is uncertain, and they may delay the purchase of large ticket items such as a
home.
Development activity in Nanaimo is guided by the City’s “Official
Community Plan” (OCP) The current OCP was established in 2008 with
public input though the “Plan Nanaimo” process. The plan outlines seven
main goals:
1.
Manage urban growth;
2.
Build a more sustainable community;
3.
Encourage social enrichment;
4.
Promote a thriving economy;
5.
Protect and enhance our environment;
6.
Improve mobility and servicing efficiency; and,
7.
Work towards a sustainable Nanaimo.
Nanaimo’s Official Community
Plan
The plan establishes an “urban containment boundary” to focus growth
to urban areas, while limiting growth in non-urban, unserviced lands in
the city. The plan is designed to create a more sustainable community
by creating urban nodes and corridors that support higher densities and
a wider range of amenities and services than found in the surrounding
residential neighourhoods. The plan impacts land use and development within the city. For further information on the future land use plan,
contact the Community Planning Department of the City of Nanaimo at
250‑755-4423.
The construction sector accounts for over 23% of licensed businesses
operating in the City of Nanaimo. There were 1,374 licenses issued to
construction firms as of September 27, 2010. The majority of licensed
construction businesses are relatively small, having fewer than 20
employees. In addition to these businesses, there are 24 licensed real
estate agent and broker-related businesses in Nanaimo.
City of Nanaimo – Economic Development Office
Sector Composition
Page 3
Construction Sector - 2010
Table 1: Number of Construction-Related Business Licenses in the City of Nanaimo
No. of Business
Licenses
Construction
Land Subdivision and Development
Building Construction
Heavy & Civil Engineering Construction
Building, Architecture, Engineering & Drafting Svcs.
Site Preparation Work
Concrete, Foundation, Framing & Structure Work
Building Exterior Finishing Work
Building Interior Finishing Work
Building Equipment Contractor
Paving & Asphalt Contractor
Total
% of ConstructionRelated
Business
(1,374)
% of Total
Licenses
(5,867)
1.16%
32.24%
2.62%
11.42%
6.33%
3.56%
9.38%
13.53%
18.85%
0.87%
100.00%
.27%
7.55%
0.61%
2.67%
0.83%
2.19%
3.17%
4.41%
0.20%
3.49%
23.38%
16
443
36
157
87
49
129
186
259
12
1,374
Source: Nanaimo Economic Development, Business Profile Database, September 2010
Labour Market
Based on the 2006 Census figures, employment in the construction sector increased by 1,390 people compared to the previous Census in 2001.
On average, employment in Nanaimo’s construction sector increased by
12% per annum between 2001 and 2006, while the labour market as a
whole grew at an annual rate of 2.8% over the same period. This reflects
the construction boom during that time.
Local Training Programs
Vancouver Island University (VIU) offers programs that prepare students
for entry-level and apprenticeship positions in a variety of constrution‑related occupations. School District 68 in partnership with VIU offers
trade programs through The Central Vancouver Island Career Technical
Centre (CTC). The CTC is a career-focused program that students may
choose for their final two years of secondary school and first year of postsecondary education.
Programs offered by VIU include:
• Carpentry
• Electrician
• Heating, Ventilation & Air Conditioning
• Welding
Programs offered by the CTC include:
• Applied Business Technology
• Trades and Technology
Page 4
City of Nanaimo – Economic Development Office
Construction Sector - 2010
Much of Nanaimo’s construction activity in recent years has centered
around the residential market. As the city has grown, the mix of housing
types has changed from predominantly single-family homes to include
multi-family housing. Housing activity will stabilize in 2010 and 2011
as the provincial economy grows at a moderate pace. Two factors have
helped sales volumes and new starts in 2010. The first was the new
Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) implementation July 1, and the second was
the expectation of mortgage rates gradually rising during the second half
of the year. In the second half of 2010, momentum in the economy and
accompanying job gains will help support homeownership demand.
Residential Market
Builders and developers are also favouring multifamily projects. Rising
land, labour and material costs, coupled with a limited amount of developable land, are placing upward pressure on home prices. Denser housing forms are also favoured by local governments as a means to slow
down urban sprawl. This reflects a changing consumer preference to lifestyle advantages associated with these types of developments, including a higher level of security and little to no yard work or home repairs.
In many cases these dwellings are likely to be within close proximity to
the workplace, recreational facilities and urban amenities. Builders and
developers of multiple unit condominium projects continue to focus on
smaller phased projects. Apartment condominiums, row and townhouse
starts are trending higher and are forecast to reach 534 units in 2010
compared to 295 in 2007.
In 2009 City of Nanaimo building permit data indicated that residential
building permits accounted for approximately 43% of all permits issued
and about 55% of the estimated value of construction. The number of
permits, units constructed, and value of construction is outlined in Table
2.
Construction Activity
Table 2: Residential Building Permit Activity
Year
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Number of
Residential Building
Permits
267
275
174
177
309
409
540
593
467
556
376
324
Number of New
Residential Units
415
270
343
396
380
575
689
983
895
1,358
973
409
Value of Residential
Construction
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
34,468,000
31,468,000
29,948,000
24,753,000
45,214,000
62,243,000
93,297,000
145,697,000
138,216,000
191,865,000
145,869,000
87,634,000
Source: City of Nanaimo, Building Inspections Division
City of Nanaimo – Economic Development Office
Page 5
Construction Sector - 2010
Building Permits
Multi-family unit construction has been increasing steadily over the last
few years and now makes up nearly half of new residential development.
Table 3: Residential Building Units, by Type
1999 2000
Single
family
Duplex
Multifamily
Mobiles
Total
202
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
318
234
329
437
568
538
628
490
409
(63%)
(58%)
(60%)
(45%)
(50%)
(66%)
126
(75%) (37%) (80%) (62%) (57%)
32
24
6
6
30
11
22
12
14
4
8
(12%)
(7%)
(2%)
(2%)
(5%)
(2%)
(2%)
(1%)
(1%)
(1%)
(1%)
7
171
51
95
168
161
322
293
688
465
195
(23%)
(33%)
(33%)
(50%)
(48%)
(31%)
(3%)
(50%) (13%) (25%) (29%)
29
22
21
45
48
80
71
52
39
14
5
(11%)
(6%)
(5%)
(12%)
(8%)
(12%)
(7%)
(6%)
(3%)
(1%)
(1%)
270
343
396
380
575
689
983
895
1369
973
617
Source: City of Nanaimo, Building Inspections Division
Figure 1.2: Value of Building Permits
250
$ Millions
Value of Building Permits
City of Nanaimo
200
150
100
50
0
Residential
Alterations
Commercial
Industrial
Public
Total
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
45.2
2.6
16.7
.3
2.6
67.4
64.2
4.2
18.2
6.1
12.2
104.9
93.3
4.9
11.8
1.2
2.2
113.4
145.7
4.8
13.9
3.8
13.8
182.0
138.0
7.4
67.5
4.6
10.2
227.9
191.9
9.3
46.8
6.4
3.9
258.3
145.9
7.3
40.3
4.8
4.5
202.8
87.6
7.9
41.4
5.6
7.0
159.6
Source: City of Nanaimo, Building Inspections Divsion
Page 6
City of Nanaimo – Economic Development Office
Construction Sector - 2010
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) tracks new housing construction starts and completion of inventory. Table 4 summarizes
recent trends for the residential market in Nanaimo.
Table 4: Housing Starts & Completions
2007
2008
2009
% Change
Starts
538
389
267
-31%
Completions
379
469
328
-30%
Starts
166
211
179
-15%
Completions
101
163
188
+15%
Starts
20
61
40
-34%
Completions
12
47
36
-23%
Starts
109
260
315
+21%
Completions
31
337
483
+43%
Total Housing Starts
833
921
801
-130%
Total Completions
523
1,016
1,035
+1.9%
Single-family
Semi-detached
Row Housing
Apartment & Other
Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, New Housing Summary, December of each year
Renovations continue to be a popular choice for homeowners in the
Nanaimo area. In 2009, 314 permits were issued for home renovations
with a value of $7.9 million.
City of Nanaimo – Economic Development Office
Renovations
Page 7
Construction Sector - 2010
Table 5: Residential Market Indicators
2003
2004
2005
2006
Single Family Home
Number Listed
1,935
2,248
2,202
2,377
Number Sold
1,564
1,632
1,641
1,547
Average Price
$182,108 $219,872 $267,351 $288,880
Change in price since
13%
20%
21%
8%
previous year
Condo (Apartment)
Number Listed
277
419
437
553
Number Sold
250
329
369
275
Average Price
$97,147 $120,057 154,785 $189,964
Change in price since
-5%
23%
28%
23%
previous year
Condo (Townhouse)
Number Listed
223
224
250
351
Number Sold
212
182
193
198
Average Price
$119,097 $145,190 $174,441 $218,531
Change in price since
9%
21%
20%
25%
previous year
Lots
Number Listed
314
288
225
345
Number Sold
209
198
153
139
Average Price
$78,368 $81,889 $125,172 $165,766
Change in price since
2%
3%
54%
32%
previous year
2007
2008
2009
2,557
1,701
$343,117
2,564
1,174
$365,173
2,241
1,326
$351,286
19%
6%
-4%
503
334
$213,858
725
233
$235,404
525
254
$213,913
13%
10%
-9%
299
227
$241,374
10%
408
182
$246,087
2%
388
178
$255,923
4%
476
188
$168,694
2%
493
105
$153,444
-9%
351
128
$142,652
-7%
Source: Vancouver Island Real Estate Board
Forecast of Activity
The BC resale market is balanced with supply in line with demand. The
sales-to-listings ratio indicates modest house price movements through
the rest of 2010 and into 2011. In Nanaimo, the average resale price
increased by 4.5% in 2010. In Nanaimo, lots listed for sale were 29%
below 2008 levels but sales were up 22%. Single family home listings
were 13% below 2008 levels but sales were 14% above. Condo (apt) unit
sales improved by 9% while listings were down 28%. Patio style condo
listings increased by 22% and units sold decreased by 4%. Condo (townhouse) listings declined by 7%, as did sales by 2%.
In the first half of 2010, job gains were split evenly between part-time and
full-time positions but as the BC economy continues recovery, job gains
will shift to full-time from part-time, leading to income growth and home
ownership demand.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation forecasts indicate 500 single detached homes will be built in Nanaimo in 2010, which is a 22%
increase from 2009. The forecast for multi-family type dwellings is 430,
a 111% increase from 2009.
Page 8
City of Nanaimo – Economic Development Office
Construction Sector - 2010
The housing outlook will improve in 2011, with advances in existing
home sale prices as well as housing starts. The 2011 forecast for single
detached homes is 575, a 9.15% increase, and for multi-family dwellings
is 425, a 1.2% drop from 2010.
Subdivision activity can be an indicator of future supply of vacant residential lots. 2009 saw a 14.31% increase in lots with preliminary layout
acceptance and a 18.66% drop in lots with final approval.
Table 6: Subdivision Lots
Lots with Preliminary
Layout Acceptance
Lots with
Final Approval
2002
294
176
2003
798
272
2004
1045
193
2005
696
402
2006
520
478
2007
853
172
2008
503
418
2009
575
340
Source: City of Nanaimo, Subdivision Approving Division
Rental rates vary according to area of town and type of dwelling. Average
monthly rents are approximately $636 for a one bedroom apartment
and $773 for a two bedroom apartment. The following summary information is from the Spring 2010 Rental Market Report.
Housing Rental Market
Table 7: Nanaimo Area Rental Market Summary
Average Rent
Vacancy Rate
2006
2007
2008
2006
2007
2008
Bachelor
$455
$460
$495
6.2%
1.5%
1.4%
1 bedroom
$563
$581
$614
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
2 bedroom
$682
$700
$750
2.0%
1.1%
1.5%
3+ bedroom
$812
$810
$894
3.5%
2.6%
2.6%
1 bedroom
$534
$564
$607
1.4%
0.0%
0.0%
2+ bedroom
$737
$753
$798
1.4%
2.9%
0.8%
Apartment:
Row Housing:
Source: CMHC Rental Market Report, Mid Vancouver Island
City of Nanaimo – Economic Development Office
Page 9
Construction Sector - 2010
Table 8: Nanaimo Area Rental Housing Vacancy Rates (%)
2000
15.6
2001
12.0
2002
3.9
2003
3.3
2004
1.2
2005
1.4
2006
1.4
2007
1.9
2008
1.0
2009
3.4
2010
4.3
Source: CMHC Rental Market Report, Mid Vancouver Island
Commercial Permits
Table 9: Commercial Building Permit Trends
Year
Number of Permits
1999
132
Value of
Commercial Construction
$47,159,000
2000
195
$24,481,000
2001
139
$29,866,000
2002
156
$16,729,000
2003
157
$18,202,000
2004
132
$11,812,000
2005
129
$13,925,000
2006
142
$67,477,000
2007
156
$46,807,000
2008
182
$40,264,000
2009
142
$41,492,000
Source: City of Nanaimo, Building Inspections Division
Office Space
Nanaimo is a regional centre serving both the city population and the
larger central and northern areas of Vancouver Island. The market for
office space is largely from users providing local and regional services.
This includes professional, health care, insurance, financial and government uses. Institutional, resource companies and regional business
service companies comprise the next largest group.
Space Forecasts
In January 2004, the City of Nanaimo hired Urbanics Consulting to assist
with forecasting future office and retail space needs as part of a review
of Nanaimo’s Official Community Plan. As seen in Table 11, dependent on migration trends, the projected amount of new office space in
Nanaimo ranges from a low of 34,000 square feet in the Downtown core
to 147,000 square feet in other areas of the City. With a low migration pattern, it is estimated that Nanaimo will require approximately
155,000 square feet of additional office space by 2006 and approximately 276,000 square feet of additional space by 2011. The forecasts
are based on population projections that are detailed in Appendix 4.
Page 10
City of Nanaimo – Economic Development Office
Construction Sector - 2010
Table 10: Office Space Forecasts
 
 
Downtown Nanaimo
Baseline*
Low Migration
High Migration
Other areas of Nanaimo
Baseline
Low Migration
High Migration
Forecast Office Floor Area Needs (Sq. Ft.)
2006
2011
2016
2021
2031
35,000
34,000
56,000
67,000
59,000
103,000
129,000
89,000
192,000
204,000
142,000
304,000
383,000
245,000
578,000
120,000
119,000
147,000
209,000
199,000
257,000
345,000
290,000
433,000
508,000
420,000
654,000
843,000
634,000
1,135,000
Source: Urban Futures’ population forecasts. Urbanics Consultants’ office space
rations/projections, City of Nanaimo
Table 11 forecasts new retail and service floor space based on baseline
to high growth scenarios for the next 15 years. Population projections are
detailed in Appendix 2.
Table 11: Twenty Year Forecasts for New Retail and Service Space in Nanaimo*
 
 
Retail Floor Area (Sq. Ft.)
City of Nanaimo
Baseline
Low Migration
High Migration
Office Floor Area (Sq. Ft)
Downtown Nanaimo
Baseline
Low Migration
High Migration
Other City of Nanaimo
Baseline
Low Migration
High Migration
Required New Floor Areas (Sq. Ft.)
2006
2021
2031
412,000
380,000
435,000
1,752,000
1,595,000
1,992,000
2,358,000
2,057,000
2,758,000
35,000
34,000
56,000
204,000
142,000
304,000
383,000
245,000
578,000
120,000
119,000
147,000
508,000
420,000
654,000
843,000
634,000
1,135,000
Source: Urban Future’’s population forecasts, City of Nanaimo
Urbanics Consultants’ office space rations/projections
* Urbanics Consultants conducted a retail and office space study for The City of
Nanaimo in January 2004. To project Office and Retail space Urbanics developed three
population growth scenarios upon which they based space projections. See appendix
3 for detailed population tables.
City of Nanaimo – Economic Development Office
Page 11
Construction Sector - 2010
•*Baseline” Growth Scenario: based on historical net migration to the RDN of 3,130
persons per annum, as recorded over the 1990 to 2000 period; This would represent
“average” migration.
•“Low Migration” Growth Scenario: based on the 1993 to 1999 period, during which
annual net migration to the RDN averaged 2,679 persons per annum. This would represent “below average” migration.
•“High Migration” Growth Scenario: assumes net annual migration to the RDN of 3,884
persons, as exemplified over the 1987 to 1992 period; This would represent “above
average” migration.
Industrial
Industrial permit values experienced strong growth between 2004
and 2007. As with all construction categories, industrial permit values
dropped in 2008 as shown in Table 12. Industrial building activity picked
up by 17% in 2009.
Table 12: Industrial Building Permit Values
 
Summary
Page 12
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Permits
15
10
19
13
16
10
Value
$1,186,000
$3,797,000
$4,635,000
$6,415,000
$4,822,000
$5,608,000
With over 1,300 businesses and an employment base of over 3,200
people, the construction sector has a significant impact on Nanaimo’s
economy.
City of Nanaimo – Economic Development Office
Construction Sector - 2010
APPENDIX 1: Construction Sector Contacts
Canadian Home Builders’ Association of Nanaimo
202A-2520 Bowen Rd
Nanaimo, BC V9T 3L3
P (250) 758-2256
F (250) 758-2276
Website: www.chba.ca
Email: chba@chba.ca
Mid Island Construction Association
3-1850 Northfield Road
Nanaimo, BC V9S 3B3
P (250) 758-1841
F (250) 758-1286
Website: www.micabc.com
Email: info@micabc.com
City of Nanaimo Development Services Department
238 Franklyn Street
Nanaimo, BC
P (250) 755-4429
F (250) 755-4439
Website: www.nanaimo.ca
Email: building.inspections@nanaimo.ca
City of Nanaimo – Economic Development Office
Page 13
Construction Sector - 2010
APPENDIX 2: Population Projections
Urbanics Consultants conducted a retail and office space study for The
City of Nanaimo in January 2004. To project Office and Retail space,
Urbanics developed three population growth scenarios upon which they
based space projections.
•“Baseline” Growth Scenario: based on historical net migration to the
RDN of 3,130 persons per annum, as recorded over the 1990 to 2000
period;
•“Low Migration” Growth Scenario: based on the 1993 to 1999 period,
during which annual net migration to the RDN averaged 2,679 persons
per annum.
•“High Migration” Growth Scenario: assumes net annual migration to
the RDN of 3,884 persons, as exemplified over the 1987 to 1992 period.
The population growth forecasts for each of the above-defined scenarios,
and which form the basis of the consultant’s retail, commercial and office
floor area forecasts may be summarized as follows:
Population Growth Scenarios
 
City of Nanaimo
Low Migration
Baseline
High Migration
RDN
Low Migration
Baseline
High Migration
Page 14
2002
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
77,139
77,139
77,139
80,110
80,181
80,494
84,320
85,032
86,658
89,153
91,154
95,175
94,582
98,556
105,966
100,104
106,529
117,976
104,957
113,923
129,581
134,786
134,786
134,786
141,379
141,898
142,671
150,788
153,172
156,736
161,814
167,432
175,754
174,191
184,508
199,370
186,313
201,988
224,174
196,944
218,019
247,673
City of Nanaimo – Economic Development Office