Sustainable Towns: the case of Frederikshavn aiming at 100 Per
Transcription
Sustainable Towns: the case of Frederikshavn aiming at 100 Per
Draft version 5: October 31st 2008 Sustainable Towns: the case of Frederikshavn aiming at 100 Per cent Renewable Energy Henrik Lund*, Professor in Energy Planning, Aalborg University, Denmark Poul Alberg Østergaard, Associate Professor in Energy Planning, Aalborg University, Denmark Abstract In 2006, a number of Danish energy experts made the proposal that Denmark should convert the supply of a specific town to 100 per cent renewable energy by 2015. The experts suggested Frederikshavn in the northern part of Denmark for a number of reasons: The town area of 25,000 inhabitants is well defined, the local support is high, and Frederikshavn already has a number of large wind turbines at the harbour. In February 2007, the city council unanimously decided to go for the project and sat up a project organisation involving utilities and municipality administrators. Moreover, the local industry and Aalborg University are involved in the project. This chapter • presents the methodology of mapping the existing energy system, including transport, and defining the share of renewable energy, which is approx. 20 per cent in the present situation. • introduces a proposal for a potential 100 per cent renewable energy system for year 2015 and a number of realistic short-term first steps, which will take Frederikshavn to approx. 40 per cent by 2009 or 2010. • describes detailed hour-by-hour energy system analyses of the proposal for a 100 per cent renewable energy system • relates the proposal to the perspective of converting Denmark to a 100 per cent renewable energy supply system 1. Introduction This chapter provides an example of how Frederikshavn, within a short space of time, can be converted into a town supplied 100 per cent by renewable energy. The example is based on a proposal drawn up by a working group in relation to a project called “Energy Camp 2006”. The proposal is described in detail in the paper “Next City, Frederikshavn - Denmark’s renewable energy city”. It should be underlined that this is only a proposal, which may serve as an inspiration for future work. The final project must develop in close dialogue and co-operation with all the actors involved in converting this idea into reality. 1.1 Definition of renewable energy Renewable energy is here defined as energy arising from natural resources such as sunlight, wind, rain, waves, tides and geothermal heat, which are naturally replenished within a time span of a few * Corresponding author. Tel.: +45 9635 8309; fax: +45 9815 3788. E-mail address: Lund@plan.aau.dk 1 years. Renewable energy includes the technologies which convert natural resources into useful energy services: - Wind, wave, tidal and hydro power (incl. micro and river-off hydro) Solar power (incl. photovoltaic), solar thermal and geothermal power Biomass and biofuel technologies (including biogas) Renewable fraction of waste (household and industrial waste) Household and industrial waste is composed of different types of waste. Some fractions are regarded renewable energy sources, such as e.g. potato peel, while others are non-renewable sources, such as e.g. plastic products. Only the fraction of waste that is naturally replenished is usually included in the definition. However, in the Energy Town Frederikshavn project, for practical reasons, the entire waste fraction is included as forming part of the renewable energy sources. When calculating the share of renewable energy (RES) in the system, the import and export of power is converted to fuel-equivalence; i.e. the fuel needed in order to produce the power on a power plant with an efficiency of 40%. The same factor has been used when wind power is compared to fuel. Moreover, when calculating the share of RES, the share of wind power has been corrected into the expected production of a normal wind year. In Denmark, wind years vary within ±20 per cent. 1.2 Definition of project area The project covers the town of Frederikshavn, the three suburbs of Strandby, Elling, and Kilden as well as a limited number of isolated hou- Nielstrup ses. The population of the entire area is approximately 25 000 inhabitants. The delimitation of the project area is in large part established to correspond Elling to the boundary of the local electricity distribution company Frederikshavn el Elnet A/S. Nø rg år ds Nø rtv e dv ej j ve en tt ra Egerisvej ve j Strandby Skeltv edvej Sk ole va ng ve j sv e j Tuen vej Amag ervej Lie Mariendalsvej Knivholtvej Bækmojenvej v ha en ej Frederikshavn ej ev Kilden St ls gda Lan vej Tegnforklaring: Flad e ræ vdal vej Energiby Frederikshavn Frederikshavn Varme A/S Strandby Varmeværk A.M.B.A. Naturgas Haldbjerg van gv ej vej æk ngb Vra Hest r st ed ve j sn Øk Un de rsted 2 ej gv jer eb Vangen Uoverenstemmelser mellem matrikeltema og det tekniske kort (bygninger, hegn mv.) kan alene skyldes forskelle i opmålings metoder for kortet og er derfor ikke nødvendigvis udtryk for en juridisk uoverensstemmelse i virkeligheden. Init: ngtehbj Mål: 1:40000 Dato: 17-04-2008 Frederikshavn Kommune Teknisk Forvaltning Rådhus Allé 100 9900 Frederikshavn Tlf. 9845 5000 www.frederikshavn.dk Emne: Energiby Frederikshavn. Varmegrænser dv ej The entire area is indicated on the map to the left, where the blue line shows the delimitation. Areas hatched in red are district heating areas. Areas hatched in green are supplied with natural gas. Evidently, even within the contiguously built-up area of central n Hjørringv t vhol Kni kvej mar The town of Frederikshavn should not be confused with the Municipality of Frederikshavn, which encompasses a larger area extending to the Northern tip of Denmark. ve Kold enå j ve j Copyright: KMS, COWI, Frederikshavn Kommune Frederikshavn, there are potentials for an expansion of district heating, as some areas are currently supplied by natural gas for heating purposes. 1.3 Development phases In Frederikshavn, the actual supply in 2007 has a renewable energy share of approx. 20%. Based on this fact, the project works with the following years and development phases: 1. The first step is until 2009 when the UN Climate Summit COP15 will be held in Denmark. The objective is to raise the share of renewable energy in Frederikshavn to approx. 40%. 2. Transformation to 100% renewable energy on an annual basis in Frederikshavn by 2015. However, exchange of energy with the surrounding areas is allowed. 3. Further development of the 100% renewable energy system in such a way that possibilities are created for the transformation to 100% renewable energy in Denmark as a whole. The distinction between phase 2 and 3 is based on the fact that the purpose of the project is not to create an isolated “energy island” with no connections to the surroundings. On the contrary, the purpose is to show what a 100% RES future will look like and what it will take to implement it. Consequently, e.g. vehicles in Frederikshavn fuelled by RES in 2015 will have to be able to leave the town. However, they may not be able to refuel in other parts of Denmark until the whole county is converted into a 100% RES system. And vehicles from outside Frederikshavn will still have to be able to refuel in the town. A sufficient quantity of “bio-gasoline” will be produced to cover the transport demand in Frederikshavn, but not all cars will be expected to change to the use of biogasoline. Moreover, cars from Frederikshavn are not expected to be able to refuel with bio-gasoline in other locations in Denmark. Besides, the exchange of electricity across the project boundary from one hour to another may occur, and biogas from the natural gas network may be used. However, on an annual basis, the amount of fuels for vehicles, electricity and heat productions based on 100% renewable energy should meet the exact demands of Frederikshavn by the year 2015. In 2030, the target is to implement a solution in which the amount of biomass resources and the exchange of electricity and fuels will comply with a strategy according to which Denmark as a whole is converted into a 100 per cent renewable energy system. Again, the target is not to entirely avoid exchange. However, it would not be acceptable for Frederikshavn to merely export any imbalances in e.g. electricity to the areas outside the town, as this would compromise the possibilities of a conversion to 100 per cent renewable energy in these areas. Exchange should thus be limited to an appropriate level and should consider the fact that some parts of Denmark may utilise more wind power than others, while other parts may utilise more biomass resources. Moreover, Scandinavia may explore mutual benefits of exchanging e.g. wind power in Denmark with hydro power in Norway. 2. The present situation: Year 2007, approximately 20% renewable energy The existing energy supply in Frederikshavn is shown in Figure 1 Most houses and apartments are connected to the public district heating network, but the area also covers a small share of individually heated homes. In addition to this is the energy consumption of industry and transport. 3 The energy demand consists of: - an electricity demand of 164 GWh/year supplied by the public grid - a district heating demand of 190 GWh/year distributed into two separate systems of 175 and 15 GWh, respectively. Including grid losses of 52 GWh/year, the annual production in 2007 added up to 242 GWh/year. - a transport demand of local transport equal to 165 GWh/year of gasoline and diesel. - the heating of houses with individual boilers equal to 37 GWh of fuel and estimated 28 GWh of heat. - fuel for industry of 36 GWh equal to an estimated room heat demand of 28 GWh and process heat of 3 GWh. Out of the 36 GWh plus 37 GWh fuel for individual houses and industry, an estimated 70% can be converted into district heating. The district heating in the large system (central Frederikshavn) is produced on combined heat and power plants (CHP), partly based on waste incineration and partly including peak load boilers fuelled by natural gas. District heating in the small system (the northern suburb Strandby) is produced on a small CHP plant fuelled by natural gas – shown in the photo to the right. The individual supply is based on oil and gas-fired burners and a small amount of wood. Figure 1 shows that a large share of the power demand in Frederikshavn is already met by local wind power and CHP production. In addition to the electricity production of the three mentioned CHP plants, 10.6 MW of nearshore wind power placed at the Frederikshavn Harbour (see photo) covers some of the demand. The rest is imported from the national grid. Here, the latter is assumed to be produced on a coal-fired power station with an efficiency of 40 per cent, equal to the average of Danish condensing mode power plants. 4 Figure 1: Frederikshavn 2007 (20% renewable energy) Fossil fuels 623 GWh Renewable energy 201 GWh (~ 24%) Power and district heating Demand 135 GWh coal FE *) Power plant 54 GWh 85 GWh FE *) Electricity demand 164 GWh 34 GWh 76 GWh 112 GWh Waste 203 GWh Natural gas 51 GWh Natural gas Waste and natural gas Heat and power plants Heat loss 52 GWh 194 GWh District heating 190 GWh Reserve capacity 48 GWh Industry 36 GWh oil and natural gas 33 GWh oil and gas 4 GWh Wood Individual heating 28 GWh Transport 165 GWh petrol and diesel *) Electricity as given in fuel equivalents of electricity production of a coal-fired steam turbine with an efficiency of 40 per cent. 5 3. The first step: Frederikshavn in the year of 2009 The year of 2009 is chosen as the terminal date of phase one, because the planned UN Climate Summit in Denmark will provide a good opportunity for promoting the project at an international level. The objective is to raise the share of renewable energy to approximately 40% by implementing the following four projects before the end of 2009: - - - - 12 MW wind turbines. These wind turbines represent step one of a new off-shore project of a total expected capacity of 25 MW. The project has been decided, and the procedure of environmental impact assessments is in progress. The first 12 MW are expected to be implemented during 2009 (see visualisation to the right). 8000 m2 of thermal solar collectors (see photo) in combination with an additional 1500 m3 of water heat storage and an absorption heat pump (see photo) at the CHP plant of the small district heating supply of Strandby. At present, the project is being implemented. The absorption heat pump will cool the exhaustion gas and increase the total efficiency from currently 94% to 98%, and the solar collectors will generate an annual heat production of approximately 4 GWh. Implementation of a facility which upgrades biogas from a local biogas plant outside the town to natural gas quality and transports the gas to a biogas-fuel station in Frederikshavn. Furthermore, an investment in 60 bi-fuel cars will be made. This will supply 7 GWh of biogas. The biogas that will not be used for transport will be used in the CHP plant. Establishment of a 1 MWth heat pump at the waste water treatment plant of the town, which is expected to utilise 2 GWh of electricity annually to extract 4 GWh of heat from the waste water and produce 6 GWh of heat for the district heating supply. The total budget of this phase is estimated at approximately 200 million DKK and, as illustrated in figure 2, it is expected to increase the share of renewable energy to 38 per cent. 6 Figure 2: Frederikshavn 2009 (40% renewable energy) Fossil fuels 516 GWh Renewable energy 310 GWh (~ 39%) Power and district heating Demand 50 GWh coal FE *) Power plant 20 GWh 183 GWh FE *) Electricity demand 164 GWh 73 GWh 2 GWh 73 GWh 112 GWh Waste 194 GWh Natural gas Waste and natural gas 190 GWh Heat and power plant 6 GWh Heat demand 190 GWh Solar heat 4 GWh 45 GWh Natural gas District heating 52 GWh Reserve capacity 42 GWh Industry 36 GWh oil and natural gas 4 GWh Wood 33 GWh oil and natural gas Individual heating 28 GWh Transport 7 GWh Biogas 158 GWh petrol and diesel 7 4. Frederikshavn in the year of 2015 On a continuous basis, the Energy Town Frederikshavn project is in the process of identifying a proper scenario for the implementation of a 100% renewable energy system by the end of the year 2015. Here, a status on the results of such considerations is presented. Each of the proposed projects will be subject to more detailed analyses in the coming period. However, the key components have been identified and are included in the planning phase and the project phase, which are expected to last for several years. New Waste incineration CHP plant. Public waste treatment in Frederikshavn is based on the same principles as in the rest of Denmark, i.e. giving priority to recycling of most of the waste, then incineration producing heat and power and only land filling of very small shares. However, the amounts of waste for incineration now exceed the capacity of the two existing plants in the area (one is beyond the project area in the town of Skagen; the other is shown to the right) and it is planned to build a new waste incineration plant. Consequently, the Energy Town project includes a new waste incineration CHP plant with an expected net-electricity efficiency of 23% and a heat efficiency of 64%, and with an incineration capacity of 185 GWh/year, equal to the available amount of local resources. Expansion of district heating grid The project also includes an expansion of the existing district heating grid, whereby 70 per cent of the heat demand in the presently individually heated houses and industry is replaced by district heating. The demand covered by district heating will thus expand from presently 190 GWh to a total of 236 GWh. The rest of the industry (process heating) will be supplied from biomass boilers and the remaining individually heated houses convert to a mixture of solar thermal and electric heat pumps. Transport With regard to transport, the project is heading for a solution in which the vehicle fleet consists of bi-fuel cars (using biogas in combustion engines), electric cars, and plug-in hybrid cars. In order to implement as much electric driving as possible, it is suggested to implement cars which combine the use of batteries with fuel-cell driving based on either methanol or hydrogen. The specific proposal calculated in the following assumes that motorcycles & mopeds (4 GWh) and vans & busses (25 GWh) are converted to biogas, hydrogen or methanol in the ratio of 1:1. Of the 8 remaining transport demand, 10 GWh is converted into biogas in the ratio of 1:1; 50% of the remaining demand is converted into electric driving (1 kWh of electricity replaces 3 kWh of gasoline due to improved efficiencies) and the rest into FC-based driving replacing 2 kWh of gasoline by 1 kWh of methanol or hydrogen. In total, 165 GWh of gasoline and diesel are replaced by 10 GWh of biogas, 21 GWh of electricity and 61 GWh of methanol. Biogas plant and methanol production. Partly to be able to produce methanol for transportation and partly to replace natural gas for electricity and heat production, the project includes a biogas plant utilising 34 million tons of manure per year for the production of 225 GWh of biogas. The facility itself consumes 42 GWh of heat to attain the optimal digestion temperature and 7 GWh of electricity. The biogas can be converted into methanol with an efficiency of 70%. Consequently, the production of 61 GWh of methanol is expected to consume 87 GWh of biogas. However, the production of methanol will provide 17 GWh of heat, which can be utilised for district heating. The methanol may also be fully or partly produced by electrolysis. Moreover, in the end, the cars may consume hydrogen instead of a certain share of the methanol. In such case, part of the biogas will be replaced by wind power instead. Geothermal and heat pumps The town of Frederikshavn is located on top of potential geothermal resources which may be included in the project. The resources can supply hot water with a temperature of approximately 40°C. However, the temperature can be increased to district heating level by the use of an absorption heat pump, which can be supplied with steam from the waste incineration CHP plant. It has been calculated that an input of steam of 13.3 MW in combination with a geothermal input of 8.7 MW can produce 22 MW of district heating. The steam input will decrease the electricity production from the CHP plant by only 1.3 MW and the heat production by 11.9 MW. Marginally, the absorption heat pump has a coefficient of performance (COP) of more than 7. The Geothermal plant in Thisted, Denmark produces 15.4 GWh of heat per year. © Thisted Varmeforsyning Additional compression heat pumps may be applied in order to utilise the exhaust gases from the CHP plants and the boilers supplemented by other sources, such as e.g. waste water, as already 9 included in the plans for 2009. A potential of 10 MWth output is included by use of a heat pump with a COP of 3. CHP plant and boilers The project includes a biogas CHP plant of 15 MW and efficiencies of 40% electricity and 55% heat. The rest of the heat production will be supplied from a biomass boiler burning straw with an efficiency of 80%. Wind Power Finally, the project includes enough wind turbines to cover the rest of the electricity supply, i.e. a total of around 40 MW of which already more than half will be implemented by year 2009. 5. Energy System Analysis By the use of the EnergyPLAN model, a series of detailed energy system analyses of the expected year 2015 system have been conducted in order to identify the hourly balances of heat supply and exchange of electricity. The EnergyPLAN model is a deterministic input/output model. General inputs are demands, renewable energy sources, energy station capacities, costs, and a number of optional different regulation strategies emphasising import/export and excess electricity production. Outputs are energy balances and resulting annual productions, fuel consumption, import/exports of electricity, and total costs including income from the exchange of electricity. Se the figure on the following page. The model can be used to calculate the consequences of operating a given energy system in such way that it meets the set of energy demands of a given year. Different operation strategies can be analysed. Basically, the model distinguishes between technical regulation, i.e. identifying the least fuel-consuming solution, and market-economic regulation, i.e. identifying the consequences of operating each station on an electricity market with the aim of optimising the business-economic profit. In both situations, most technologies can be actively involved in the regulation. And in both situations, the total costs of the systems can be calculated. The model includes a large number of traditional technologies, such as power stations, CHP and boilers, as well as energy conversion and technologies used in renewable energy systems, such as heat pumps, electrolysers, and heat, electricity and hydrogen storage technologies including Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES). The model can also include a number of alternative vehicles, for instance sophisticated technologies such as V2G (Vehicle to Grid) in which vehicles supply electricity to the electric grid. Moreover, the model includes various renewable energy sources, such as solar thermal and photovoltaic, wind, wave and hydro power. 10 EnergyPLAN INPUT Demands Electricity Cooling District heating Individual heating Fuel for industry Fuel for transport OUTPUT Distribution data Electricity demand District heating Solar thermal Photo Voltaic Industrial CHP Wind Results Hydro Geothermal Transportation Wave Waste Individual heating Market prices Capacities & efficiencies Fuel consumption Regulation Heat storage Hydrogen storage Electricity storage CAES Share of RES Either: Fuel Cost Types of fuel CO2 emission factor CO2 emission costs Fuel prices Transport Petrol/Diesel Vehicle Gas Vehicles Electric Vehicle V2G Hydrogen Vehicle Biofuel Vehicle CO2 emissions Technical limitations Choice of strategy CEEP strategies Transmission cap. External electricity market Power Plant Boilers CHP Heat Pumps Electric Boilers Micro CHP Storage Electricity production Electricity import/export electricity excess production Import expenditures, export revenues RES Wind Solar Thermal Photo Voltaic Geothermal Hydro Power Wave (Annual, monthly and hourly values) Cost Variable Operation Fixed Operation Investment Interest rate Technical regulation strategies 1 Balancing heat demand 2 Balancing both heat and electricity demand 3 Balancing both heat and electricity demand (reducing CHP even when partially needed for grid stabilisation) 4 Balancing heat demand using triple tariff Or: Electricity market strategy Market simulation of plant optimisation based on business economic marginal production costs. And: Critical Excess Electricity Production Reducing wind Replacing CHP with boiler or heat pump Electric heating and/or bypass Key data in the analyses are hourly distributions of demands and fluctuating renewable energy sources, as shown in the diagrams. Fluctuations in electricity demand are based on actual measurements of the demand of Frederikshavn in the year 2006, and the district heating demand has been based on a typical Danish distribution adjusted by monthly values of the district heating demand of Frederikshavn in 2007. Wind power is based on the actual production of the existing wind turbines in 2006. However, the productions have been corrected for down-time and adjusted to the expected annual production of an average wind year. The case of solar thermal uses a typical Danish production of solar thermal power supplying district heating systems. 11 District Heating (Typical Danish hour distribution adjusted by use of monthly values of Frederikshavn 2007) Electricity demand in Frederikshavn 2006 40000 3 30000 kW kW 2 20000 1 10000 0 0 1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 Hour distribution 1 6001 7001 8001 1001 2001 3001 4001 Hour distribution Duration curve 5001 6001 7001 8001 Duration curve Thypical Danish distribution for Solar thermal connected to district heating Vind power in Frederikshavn 2006 2500 12 9 1500 kW kW 2000 1000 6 3 500 0 0 1 1001 2001 3001 4001 Hour distribution 5001 6001 7001 1 8001 1001 2001 3001 4001 Hour distribution Duration curve 5001 6001 7001 8001 Duration curve The results of the energy system analyses reveal that if the use of waste for incineration is increased from the present 112 GWh to 185 GWh in a plant with efficiencies and district heating demand corresponding to the present level, the summer heat production will exceed the demand by 10 GWh. Such excess production will be even higher if heat from methanol production is included. However, by building a new plant with higher electric output, expanding the district heating network and adding the heat consumption of the biogas plant, excess heat production is avoided. Moreover, the analyses show that, on an annual basis, all energy demands in the Energy Town Frederikshavn can be met by 100% renewable energy by using 185 GWh of waste, 225 GWh of biogas, 48 GWh of straw, 5 GWh of solar thermal power, 48 GWh of geothermal heat and 130 GWh of wind power (equal to a fuel equivalence of 325 GWh). However, the production of electricity is not able to meet the demands during all hours. The analyses indicate that the system needs an exchange of approximately 25 GWh of imported electricity. However, on an annual basis, such import is compensated by a similar export during other hours. The system configuration is shown in the diagram on the next page. 12 Figure 3: Frederikshavn 2015 (100% renewable energy) External Frederikshavn RE =836 GWh (100%) Power and district heating Demand 1 GWh solar heat Individual heating 8 GWh Heat pump 7 GWh 3 GWh Net exchange of power: 0 GWh Import =25GWh, export = 25 GWh 325 GWh FE *) 225 GWh Electricity demand 164 GWh 130 GWh Biogas plant 128 GWh 185 GWh waste Heat and power plants 226 GWh Methanol District heating 210 GWh 95 GWh Heat loss 65 GWh Biogas 42 GWh 87 GWh Straw 21 GWh 91 GWh Waste and bio fuel 42 GWh Electric cars 21 GWh Biogas etc. 12 GWh 17 GWh Industry heat 26 GWh 18 GWh power 4 GWh 6 GWh Bio fuels 6 GWh Transport 61 GWh Methanol Net exchange of petrol: 0 GWh Biogas 10 GWh 13 Phase 3: Frederikshavn in the year of 2030 – 100% renewable energy and less biomass Phase 3 involves the reduction of biomass including waste to a level corresponding to Frederikshavn’s share of the national resources. A potential of 165-400 PJ of domestic biomass in Denmark has been identified, depending on the scale of energy crops. Residual resources (straw, biogas, wood chips and waste) account for 165 PJ/year. Based on the size of the population, Frederikshavn’s share is in the range from 220 to 500 GWh/year. The expected system of year 2015 utilises around 450 GWh. This is in the upper end of the range, and will then have to be adjusted accordingly. However, the use of biomass is in the right order of magnitude with regard to the long-term objective of the project. Phase 3 will, among other things, include a better insulation of homes, power savings and an increased efficiency in the industry as well as further transition to electric vehicles in transport. The changes in phase 3 must be coordinated with conditions and activities in the rest of the country. The changes are not made more specific, and no attempt has been A 2 W LED lamp giving the same light output as a 25 W made to assess the need for investments. filament light bulb *) Henrik Lund is Professor in Energy Planning at the Department of Development and Planning at Aalborg University and was head of department from 1996 to 2002. Dr. Lund holds a PhD in “implementation of sustainable energy systems” (1990). He has researched and published about energy system analysis, energy planning and energy economics for more than 20 years. The International Energy Foundation (IEF) gave him a gold medal for ”Best Research Paper Award” within the area “Energy Policies & Economics” in 1998. He has been involved in a number of research projects and committee works in Danish energy planning, and in the implementation of various local energy projects. 14