Midyear Commercial Real Estate Update

Midyear Commercial Real Estate Update
PREPARED FOR
FLORIDA
Major Metropolitan Statistical Areas
Jacksonville
1.4 million residents
Tampa
2.9 million residents
Orlando
2.3 million residents
Miami
5.9 million
residents
POPULATION
July 1, 2014
1.4 million
residents
5.9 million residents in South
Florida as of July 2014
8th largest U.S. metropolitan area
Palm
Beach
County
1.9 million
residents
2.7 million
residents
MiamiDade
County
24%
45%
32%
Broward
County
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, March
2015.
POPULATION BY AGE GROUP
As of July 1, 2013
Ages
85+
25% 23%
Ages
0-14
Ages
70-84
25%
26%
24%
26%
Ages
50-69
23%
Ages
15-34
27%
Ages
35-49
Percent “Millennials” (born 1979-1998)
Percent “Baby Boomers” (born 1944-1963)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, June 2014.
POPULATION BY ORIGIN
As of July 1, 2013
17%
Caribbean
20%
25%
33%
South America
8%
48%
Central America
4%
Mexico 1%
Born in Latin America
Other Foreign Born
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-2013 5-Year American
Community Survey.
POPULATION GROWTH
April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2014
77,600
new
residents
363,500 new residents in South Florida
from April 2010 through July 2014
6th-fastest growing U.S. metropolitan area
Palm
Beach
County
121,100
new residents
164,000
new
residents
MiamiDade
County
21%
45%
33%
Broward
County
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, March
2015.
POPULATION GROWTH
BY AGE GROUP
April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2013
6
4
New residents per year (000s)
4
28
2
0
22
22
10
9
5
3
1
13
12
10
7
4
2
-2
0 to 19
20 to 39 40 to 59 60 to 79
80+
Age
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, June 2014.
COMPONENTS OF
POPULATION CHANGE
April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2014
Average annual change (000s)
1
5
61
86
-47
66
Births
Deaths
International Domestic Unclassified
Total
Net
Net
Population
Migration
Migration
Change
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, March
2015.
INTERNATIONAL
NET MIGRATION
April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2014
43%
53%
International net migration as a percentage
of annual population change
Palm Beach
County
Broward
County
98%
71%
Miami-Dade
County
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, March
2015.
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
Job growth
2010 to 2014
Growth of total nonfarm payroll employment (in
000s)
15 most-populous U.S. metros*
1. New York
+566
9,133
Rank. Metro Area
Increase 2010-2014
Total jobs in 2014
2. L.A.
+466
5,722
7. Miami
+230
2,425
3. Houston
+371 4. Dallas
2,925
+353
3,273
5. San Francisco
+267
6. Chicago
2,186
+256
4,502
9. Seattle
+174
1,841
8. Atlanta
+226
2,502
11. Detroit
+161
1,897
10. Phoenix
+161
1,853
13. Riverside
+140
1,285
12. Boston
+158
2,586
15. Philadelphia
+85
2,782
14. Washington
+130
3,112
Increase Rank
*Figures reflect annual averages of non-seasonally adjusted
monthly employment estimates.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment
Statistics, February 2015.
SOUTH FLORIDA
INSTITUTIONAL INVENTORY
38,636
35,000
8,753
188,389
176,000
2004 Peak Inventory
(est)
Converted to
Condominiums (est)
New Inventory 2005- 2012-2017 Market Rate
2012 (est)
Starts (est)
2017 Projected
Inventory
VACANCY RATES Q1 2015
Palm Beach County - 4.1%
Broward County - 4.4%
Miami Dade County - 3.4%
MIAMI-DADE Q1 2015
Vacancy : 3.4%
Absorption: 2,545
Year over year rent increase: 5.9%
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MULTIFAMILY DELIVERIES
5,808
1,942
2,212
2,526
2013
2014
2015
2016+
DEVELOPMENTS OF
REGIONAL IMPACT
PORTMIAMI
ALL ABOARD FLORIDA
MIAMI
WORLDCENTER
Source: Let’s Keep Florida Ports Working, Rick Scott for Florida, May 19,2014.
BRICKELL CITY
CENTRE
Source: Let’s Keep Florida Ports Working, Rick Scott for Florida, May 19,2014.
CONDOS
SOUTH FLORIDA PRECONSTRUCTION CONDO PROJECTS
Includes proposed, planned, under construction and
completed (since 2011)
Market
Towers
Units
Share
334
42,967
100.0%
87
14,610
34.0%
Planned (Approved)
126
15,231
35.4%
Under Construction
99
11,536
26.8%
Completed (Since 2011)
22
1,590
3.7%
South Florida Total
Proposed (Unapproved)
* Greater Downtown Miami includes Wynwood/Edgewater, Downtown and Brickell east of Interstate 95.
Source: CBRE Research, Cranespotters.com, March 16, 2015.
MULTIFAMILY PERMITS – CITY OF MIAMI
Permits have started to increase again, but remain under half the 2005 peak
City of Miami
Residential Building Permits (5+ Units), City of Miami
Buildings
Units
Buildings
Units
80
12,000
2005:
70
Buildings
10,359
Units
70
60
50
10,500
9,000
7,500
30
2014:
28
Buildings 6,000
3,644
Units 4,500
20
3,000
10
1,500
40
0
0
2000
Source: CBRE Research, Google.
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: CBRE Research, U.S, Census Bureau, Dec. 2014.
2014
MULTIFAMILY PERMITS – CITY OF MIAMI
Density of permitted buildings (units/building) is similar to the last cycle
City of Miami
Units per Permitted Building (5+ Units), City of Miami
Units per
Building
200
2005:
148 Units
per
Building
180
160
140
120
2014:
130 Units
per
Building
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
Source: CBRE Research, Google.
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: CBRE Research, U.S, Census Bureau, Dec. 2014.
2012
2014
MULTIFAMILY PERMITS – CITY OF MIAMI BEACH
Permitted buildings contain far fewer units than in prior cycles
City of Miami Beach
Units per Permitted Building (5+ Units), City of Miami Beach
Units per
140
Building
2000:
118 Units
per
Building
120
100
80
60
2014:
13 Units
per
Building
40
20
0
2000
Source: CBRE Research, Google.
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: CBRE Research, U.S, Census Bureau, Dec. 2014.
2012
2014
CONDO COMPLETIONS – MIAMI BEACH AND MIAMI BAYSHORE
Current rate of condo completions far below 2008 peak
Miami Submarket: South Beach / Miami Bayshore
Condo Completions (Ths. Of Units)
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000
Source: CBRE Research, Axio.
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Axio, Q3, 2014.
2012
2014
CONDO VALUES – MIAMI BEACH AND GREATER MIAMI CBD
Condo values have nearly returned to peak levels
Miami Beach and Miami CBD Neighborhoods
Monthly Median Home Value for Condominiums (Ths.)
$500
Brickell
Downtown
Wynwood - Edgewater
Miami Beach
$450
$400
Wynwood Edgewater
$350
$300
Downtown
Brickell
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
2000 2001 2003 2004 2006 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013
Source: CBRE Research, Zillow.
Source: Zillow, Zillow Home Value Index, Dec. 2014.
SIGNIFICANT RECENT
LAND SALES
East
ARIUM300Resort
Price
$125,000,000
$225 million
$148,026 per unit
Acreage
1.25
Price per acre
$100,000,000
Price per Unit
TBA
Sold
July 2014
Buyer: Carroll Organization
Seller: CBREI
Sales Date: 04/13
Year Built: 19
SELLER:
Ponte Gadea USA
BUYER:
Coto
BROKER:
CBRE
DORAL WHITE
ARIUM
Resort
Price
TBD
$225 million
$148,026 per unit
Acreage
130.1
Price per acre
TBD
Price per Unit
TBD
Sold (expected)
Q4 2015
SELLER:
GIC
BUYER:
Confidential
BROKER:
CBRE
DORAL GATEWAY
ARIUM
Resort
Price
$26,000,000
$225 million
$148,026 per unit
Acreage
11.94
Price per acre
$2,177,554
Price per Unit
$57,778
Sold
Jan 2015
Buyer: Carroll Organization
Seller: CBREI
Sales Date: 04/13
Year Built: 19
SELLER:
Teva Pharmaceuticals
BUYER:
Hines
BROKER:
CBRE
BDB MIAMI
ARIUM
Resort
Price
$64,000,000
$225 million
$148,026 per unit
Acreage
7.35
Price per acre
$8,707,483
Price per Unit
TBA
Sold
January 2015
SELLER:
BDB Realty
BUYER:
Richard Meruelo
BROKER:
CBRE
CAPITAL AT BRICKELL
ARIUM
Resort
Price
Confidential
$225 million
$148,026 per unit
Acreage
2.78
Price per acre
Confidential
Price per Unit
Confidential
Sold
December 2014
SELLER:
Cabi Developers
BUYER:
CCCC
BROKER:
CBRE
4101 LAGUNA
ARIUM
Resort
Price
$11,000,000
$225 million
$148,026 per unit
Acreage
1.00
Price per acre
$11,000,000
Price per Unit
$66,667
Sold
Jan 2015
SELLER:
SGS Capital
BUYER:
Terrace Mountain
Investors
BROKER:
CBRE
ENCLAVE AT PALM BEACH
ARIUM
Resort
Price
$20,000,000
$225 million
$148,026 per unit
Acreage
4.49
Price per acre
$4,454,343
Price per Unit
TBA
Sold
May 2015
SELLER:
BBX
BUYER:
Jeff Greene
BROKER:
CBRE
REALTOR TIPS
5 things to expect when you have a
buyer for large commercial deals
1. Co-operating broker fees are rare
2. Get your buyer to agree to pay your fee or put it in the LOI
3. Significant deals will not be on MLS or LoopNet
4. You or your client will be expected to do your own
underwriting
5. Don’t be surprised (or upset) if your customers end up on
commercial broker databases
PREPARED FOR