Region Sjælland og Lolland Kommune

Region Zealand and Lolland Municipality
March 2012
COAST OF OPPORTUNITIES DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS FOR
SOUTHERN LOLLAND
SUMMARY OF SUSCOD ICZM CASE
REPORT CASERAPPORT
PROJECT
SUSCOD ICZM
Region Zealand and Lolland Municipality
Project nr. 205872
Dokument nr. 123732141
Version 2
JaD/JCR
NIRAS A/S
Sortemosevej 19
3450 Allerød
CVR-nr. 37295728
Member of FRI
www.niras.com
T: 4810 4200
F: 4810 4300
E: niras@niras.dk
D: 48104697
M: 30169375
E: jcr@niras.dk
INDHOLD
1
OBJECTIVES .............................................................................................. 1
2
THREATS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ............................................................ 1
2.1
2.2
Waves “eat” the Lollander dyke .................................................................. 1
Increasing rainfall and torrential rain will cause flooding ............................ 3
3
THE COAST TODAY .................................................................................. 3
3.1
3.2
Value Mapping ............................................................................................ 4
Pilot area ..................................................................................................... 4
3.3
3.4
Coast in sub-area 1 .................................................................................... 5
Coast in sub-area 2 .................................................................................... 6
3.5
Coast in sub-area 3 .................................................................................... 6
4
CLIMATE ADAPTATION CREATES NEW VALUES IN COASTAL
ZONE ..................................................................................................................... 8
4.1
Natural coastline with retracted dyke ........................................................ 10
4.2
4.3
Exciting holiday cottage areas and new international beach park............ 10
Outstanding opportunity for coordination with the Fehmarn Belt ............. 12
4.4
New values are created ............................................................................ 12
5
INPUT TO ICZM cookbook ...................................................................... 13
5.1
Cross-cutting project organization ............................................................ 13
5.2
5.3
Stakeholder involvement .......................................................................... 13
Background and Materials ........................................................................ 14
5.4
Legislation ................................................................................................. 14
6
KEY CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................ 15
(Currency used: Danish Kroner, DKK . 7.5 DKK approx. equal to 1 Euro )
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SUMMARY SUSCOD ICZM
1
OBJECTIVES
The overall objective was to contribute to an integrated coastal planning for climate adaptation for a selected area on the south coast of the Danish island Lolland (54°46′10″N 11°25′28″E).
The project is representing one of five geographic areas selected in the climate
change adaptation plan for the island of Lolland in 2009. Each of the geographic
areas will require efforts that are tailored to geographical conditions.
The project's immediate objectives were:
• Valuation of coastal areas from 0 to 2.5 m AMSL (DNN), including “hard” values (buildings, infrastructure, agricultural land) and “soft” values (nature, landscape, cultural heritage).
• Assessment of the possibilities to regulate the impacts of sea and the flow of
water from the hinterland.
• Description of development scenarios for the coast in the light of climate
changes, including the outline of options for obtaining soil for dike reinforcement
from excess soil from the Fehmarn Belt project or from dredging on the coast.
• Input to ICZM handbook and tools for coastal zone adaptation to changing climatic conditions.
The project's results are Lolland Municipality's contribution to the SUScod project, which is funded by the EU INTERREG funds with Region Zealand as responsible coordinator. Ideas for project come in part from a prior competition of
ideas in 2009, where NIRAS and a number of other advisers on Lolland municipality's request presented an for integrated coastal zone management idea "
Water of Opportunities " for a smaller area called Ydø.
2
THREATS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Water surface elevations and coastal erosion are threatening the dikes
safety while increasing precipitation and stormwater incidents create risk
of flooding inland
2.1
Waves “eat” the Lollander dyke
After the flood, 13 november 1872, which flooded most of the southwestern island of Lolland, the Parliament (Rigsdagen) on 23 May 1873 passed a Law on
Dikework on Lolland and Falster. The Act ordered landowners to construct and
maintain a dike along the southwest coast of Lolland to protect against future
flooding, and to create a dyke association (digelag) to perform the task.
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The dyke is approx. 4 meters high and 70 km. long and runs from Nakskov along
Nakskov Fjord to Langø, on to Lodskerne and thence along the south coast to
Saksfjed damming and inland to Handermelle. The dike was placed behind the
existing beaches which protect the dike against wave attack especially during
high tide.
Ever since the dikes were built in 1874-75 the waves have “eaten” of the beaches in front of the dike. On average approx. 25.000 m3 of sand disappears annually on the dyke front, meaning that the beaches eventually will completely disappear. In order to compensate for the reduced protective layer the local Dyke
Association (Digelaget) spends around 3 to 4 million DKK every year to ensure
the dikes with stone revetments and beach nourishment. The entire stretch from
Ydø to Næsby Strand is now a stone coast (see Figure 2).
Figure 1:
The beach in front Hummingen holiday residence area is still
wide, with dunes.
Figure 2:
The beach at Ålehoved west is completely gone, and it has been
required recently to secure the dike against wave attack with a
large stone revetments.
The coastal erosion will increase with the expected climate-based increases in
seawater level of approx. 0.5 -1 m the next 100 years. If no action is taken in this
development, all the beaches end as stony revetments, and the coastal recreational value will be almost entirely eliminated.
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2.2
Increasing rainfall and torrential rain will cause flooding
Behind the dikes increasing rainfall and cloudburst events caused by climate
change may lead to increased storm water volumes to be discharged on the
surface, as most of Lolland is not suitable for infiltration. Consequently there will
be pressure on the water discharge from the major agricultural areas, urban and
holiday cottage areas.
Figure 3:
Relative heights and drainage channels behind the dike.
As the water level rise will also make the groundwater level rise in the longer
term, there is a need to consider how these increased volumes of water must be
handled in the future.
3
THE COAST TODAY
A 4 m high dike along the south coast today protects against flooding
from the Sea. The dike protects agricultural and holiday cottage properties with a total property value of approx. 15 billion DKK.
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3.1
Value Mapping
The value survey covers both "hard" physical assets and "soft” values, where
data have been available. The analysis (Figure 4) shows that the area's high
property values (red-orange) are particularly associated with areas of high building density, including the particular holiday cottage areas on the coast Agriculture and tourism also represents values attached to land and natural areas
(Blueish).
Figure 4: Value Mapping "hard" values presented as property values in project
areas (data source: Property and Environment Database), DKK per m2
The values are under pressure because of the increased rainfall, demographic
changes, lack of jobs, etc. And therefore it is important to look at opportunities for
value creation and enhancement, and not just conservative preservation of the
existing or dwindling values.
3.2
Pilot area
To further study the possibilities of protecting existing values in the future and
creating new values under an expected climate change regime, a 12 km long
coastal pilot area was selected. The actions outlined in the pilot area may be
transferred with minor adjustments to the rest of the coastline.
The pilot coast (pilot kyst) stretches from the holiday cottage area by Næsby
Strand in the west to the holiday cottage area Hummingen just west of
Kramnitse, see figure 5
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Pilo
t Ky
st
Næsby Strand
Del
Hummingen
1
Del
2
Del
3
Figure 5:
The 12 km-long pilot area is divided into 3 sub-areas (del 1-3),
each with its distinctive appearance and development potentials.
3.3
Coast in sub-area 1
The western part of this area is dominated by forest (Figure 7) in elevation +3 m
DNN right out to the dike interrupted by short stretches of meadows in elevation
+0.5 m DNN.
Figure 6: The dike off Næsby Strand – subarea 1. The dike is secured with
stones to prevent lee side erosion from Næsby Beach.
Figure 7: A look from the top of the dike towards the woods. The forest floor
reaches almost up to the dyke (+4 m DNN).
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A larger holiday cottage area is located in the west by Næsby Strand, where
beach and dike is protected by a series of coast-parallel breakwaters, which
regularly fed by sand (Figure 8).
Figure 8. Næsby Strand towards Southeast. The beach has been stabilized with
coast-parallel breakwaters, which provides for the construction of
smaller dunes. The forest that reaches right out to the dike is seen in
the background.
3.4
Coast in sub-area 2
The middle section of the coast is dominated by agriculture and a fringe of holiday cottages along the dike surrounded by woods in the background ( Figure 9
left). The entire coastal zone has been designated outdoor area, and a large
buffer strip along the coast is reserved the right for future urban and holiday cottage development.
3.5
Coast in sub-area 3
Most of the coastal zone in sub-area 3 is reserved for farming. A relatively narrow wide buffer strip along the coast is designated for open-air area and holiday
cottage development (Figure 9 right). The area ends to the east at Hummingen,
which is a large and broad holiday-cottage area.
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Figure 9: Left: Small fringe of holiday cottages just up the dike. Sub-area 2 at
Stødby beach. Right: Wide beach with dune formation off Hummingen holiday
area, sub-area 3.
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4
CLIMATE ADAPTATION CREATES NEW VALUES IN COASTAL
ZONE
Exciting and unique scenery and a new attractive climate-proof landuse and holiday cottage areas.
By building on the valuation, and the physical possibilities and planning conditions according to the Planning Act, a comprehensive climate proof coastal zone
development plan for the selected 12 km long coastal pilot was developed.
The overall plan is shown in Figure 10, while the following sections show various
examples of how climate adaptation can occur along the coast. The coastal part
of the project can be relatively easily implemented independent of the land part,
and may advantageously be implemented in conjunction with the Fehmarn Belt
project.
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Figure 10: Integrated climate adapted coastal zone plan for the 12 km long pilot area
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4.1
Natural coastline with retracted dyke
In the western end of the 12 km stretch, where the forest reaches right out to the
beach, the dike will be pulled 300-750 meters into the hinterland, creating a naturally wide foreland to protect the dike against the waves, see Figure 11
The new alignment follows as far as possible the existing terrain along +3 m
DNN height curve. Where the terrain is lower than +3 m DNN, a new dyke is
established (shown in dashed red line) with a dike crown height of + 3m DNN to
ensure against flooding of the hinterland.
Figure 11:
Sub-area 1: Dike (red line) is pulled back 300 to 750 meters from
the coast line. most of this stretch.
In the western end of the forest area, a new artificial headland (Ny kunstig pynt)
will be constructed to stabilize the beach next to Næsby Strand holiday cottage
area. East of the headland a major depot is constructed to feed the beach with
sand to the east.
4.2
Exciting holiday cottage areas and new international beach park
East of the woods and along the rest of the 8 km long coastline the dike is secured by increasing the beach width by approx. 100 meters, see Figure 12
In the hinterland, the hollows (meadows and wetlands) are used to regulate runoff from increased precipitation and storm water.
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Two new headlands and two engineered lock-structures are constructed on the
coast to stabilize the new beach. The Eastern engineered structure is integrated
in a marina to be located here in line with local plan for Dannemare Marina Park.
The western engineered structure is an intake, through which water flows
through the channels into the meadow and lake-areas connected with the marina.
The existing low-lying holiday cottage areas are protected by levees in elevation
+2 m DNN and pumps that send excess water into the wetlands behind dikes.
New holiday cottages and leisure activities are established above elevation +2.0
m DNN on "landscape lakes" in the hinterland around the meadow and lake
area safe from flooding from both the sea and from rainfall.
Marshes drain naturally to the Baltic Sea through the two works, which bear high
water locks (sluices) to ensure that water levels do not exceed +1.5 m DNN in
the Marshes. Marshes are also associated with main channel system draining
the hinterland, where wetlands in the low level of areas are established along the
upper portion of the channel system for temporarily storing water in extreme
precipitation events.
Figure 12: Climate-customized master plan for Subareas 2 and 3
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One new pumping station will be constructed between the main channel and the
large new wetlands to the south of the channel, see figure 12. Retention of water in the upper basin can thus be controlled, so that drainage in the upper as
well as the lower basin secure against future hinterland flooding, thereby reducing the need to establish additional pumping capacity in Kramnitse.
The whole area is bordered to the north of the forest, complemented by new
forests in the eastern end.
4.3
Outstanding opportunity for coordination with the Fehmarn Belt
There is a unique opportunity to use the excess quantities of excavation sediment from the Fehmarn Belt tunnel construction process, around. 20 million m3,
for the establishment of the proposed beaches to ensure the levees along the
south coast of Lolland.
4.4
New values are created
Integrated climate change management allows for the creation of new added values in the coastal zone.
The total value of property protected by the dikes along the coast of Lolland is
estimated at 15 billion DKK. To this you may add an annual present value of
tourism, which is estimated at 3.6 billion DKK in the project area. Establishment
of 225 ha of new holiday cottage areas will potentially contribute to a gain of
approx. 2.8 billion DKK.
Climate change ma-
% of total
Estimated
Estimated
nagement plan
ha
area
costs, mio.
DKK
gains,
mio. DKK
+677
22.2
17-60
17-21
- Wetlands
+480
15.7
8-55
11-14
- Lakes
+31
1.0
4
1-2
- Forest
+85
2.8
4
5-6
- Beach
+83
2.8
-
-
Area usage ha
Natural areas - total
Holiday cottage areas
+225
7.3
-
2,756
Agricultural land
-902
29.6
70-187
-
-
-
97-247
17-21
Total (- minus cottages)
Table 1: Estimated figures for climate change adaptation plan
The table shows that the proposed climate adaptation plan will increase the holiday cottage area of the south coast by 225 hectares (ha), which is approx. 38
per cent. expansion of the existing planned holiday cottage area in the coastal
zone. The table indicates that the costs (97 to 247 million DKK) Is higher than
the estimated gains (17-21 million DKK), if disregarding the value of tourism
potential associated with the holiday cottages (2.756 million DKK). .
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The project is only viable if it succeeds in attracting tourist investments; or if the
value of the contribution to climate change adaptation in a large catchment area
is sufficiently large.
It requires further study of market conditions and the legislation, before it can be
assessed, whether it is realistic to develop the proposed area.
The distinction between traditional Danish cottage-based tourism and more international oriented Marina- and beach-based tourism will also affect the value of
tourism in the plan. Generally, it is economically most valuable to attract foreign
tourists and to get Danes to have their holidays on Lolland, rather than abroad.
The proposed climate adaptation coastal zone plan will transform 902 hectares
of farmland, which is a significant area, which wholly or partly becomes unproductive in the future. Agricultural land affected directly by the plan represents
29.6 per cent. of the coastal zone, which will however also benefit from the project's contribution to water management in the hinterland.
5
INPUT TO ICZM COOKBOOK
It is important in the process to integrate knowledge of stakeholders, the
legislative framework, economic and technical possibilities.
5.1
Cross-cutting project organization
Since the project is a development project with many challenges and disciplines involved, Lolland municipality and NIRAS each created a transverse
project structure and an overall project steering committee with representatives from the physical planning, technology, environment and development
teams. The strength of the project was undoubtedly a good collaboration
across internally in the organizations and between the involved organizations. It
was also a strength, that the project team contained both landscape planners,
economists, dike engineers, water engineers, biologists and GIS specialists, all
with a transverse project experience.
5.2
Stakeholder involvement
In the first project meeting, a number of potential stakeholders were identified,
both locally, regionally and nationally that could help to qualify, develop and implement the project. It was further discussed which stakeholders could be strong
supporters and opponents of the project's various phases.
In this project the following key stakeholders were identified: The Lolland dike
association and dike engineer; municipal departments, for example. business
and development, science, technology and environment and physical planning;
landowners, farmers and forest owners (the State); holiday cottage owners,
Fehmarn Belt A / S; Danish Coastal Zone Authority; advisers; local businesses;
Danish Nature Agency, Local Government Denmark, Region Zealand; SUSCOD
project.
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It is recommended in a larger project to make a thorough stakeholder analysis as
part of a risk analysis, whereby the stakeholders' different positions and relative
strengths are uncovered.
5.3
Background and Materials
It was from the beginning of the project a prerequisite for the technical analysis
and value mapping that the municipality, region, the dyke association and other
stakeholders contributed openly with materials and preliminary analyses.
A particular challenge for the project is the possibility of reuse of a surplus
amount of soil from the excavation to the Fehmarn Belt tunnel of approx.. 20
million m3. Much of this volume could be used for beach nourishment along the
south coast of Lolland. Project staff were several times in touch with the Fehmarn Belt, who so far relate to the municipality's decision on recycling of soils
from tunneling to protect the entry point of the tunnel outside Rødby harbor. Further work on the project SUSCOD on Lolland coast will require closer cooperation and partial access to the Fehmarn Belt analyzes.
It is generally necessary to have openness and free availability of preliminary
analysis to ensure an informed basis for further work and to reduce time lost in
the processes.
The time frame of the project was continuously adjusted, when materials and
analyzes could not be brought forward on time.
5.4
Legislation
A thorough review of the planning basis, local plans and regulations are an important basis for an integrated coastal zone management plan. The project on
the south coast of Lolland was based foremost on the municipal plan and various
local plans for the area. The legal basis for the project is crossing boundaries
and may be affected by legislation including The Environmental Protection Act,
The Nature Protection Act, the Coast Protection Act, The Construction Act, The
Agricultural Act, The Rivers Act and The Planning Act.
At the Danish Coastal Authority, which manages the Coast Protection Act, there
is currently much focus on the increasing challenges faced in the form of rising
water levels and stronger storms. Focus Denmark is directed not only at securing
our shores against climate change, but equally to ensure that we in the future
have varying and beautiful coasts, according to The Coast Protection Strategy
issued August 2011. In other words, there is a need for a coastal planning which
creates beautiful, varied and accessible coasts to interact with nature. The project is based on the philosophy behind this national strategy.
The main condition and planning challenge for the project are the Planning Act
provisions dealing with coastal zone protection, which says only to involve
coastal location for new urban areas and for planned constructions in rural areas,
only where there is a specific planning or functional justification for it. A special
planning or functional justification may be that it can be shown that, for instance.
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There will be a positive local economic impact of a project. Looking ahead, this
point needs to be clarified, as the project's economic stability requires the ability
to plan for e.g. holiday cottages in a completely new and more varied coastal
landscape.
It should be mentioned that today large areas along the coast are already
planned for holiday purposes, for which the project proposes a different and
more suitable coastal location, to the benefit of both nature, tourism and climate
adaptation.
The project will also need to be developed to a level that may support the preparation of an EIA with any subsequent preparation of local plans for each individual sub-area, according to Figures 10-12.
6
KEY CONCLUSIONS
There is great potential in the coastal zone by thinking in development,
value creation and synergies, rather than in pure conservation and protection
Land conversion from agricultural land to tourist facilities integrate climate
change adaptation and economic potential in a way not known prior in the Danish context. Climate Change Adaptation Planning contains qualities that can get
Lolland’s South Coast to flourish and enrich both nature and the tourist industry,
which has implications for the possibility of a broader accept of such a comprehensive approach to coastal zone development. If the municipality and the different stakeholders manage to trigger the plan potential, there is evidence of a profitable approach, which in an integrated manner offers economic development
opportunities and at the same time contributes to the handling of the area's climate challenges.
The study indicates:
- That it is possible to make climate adapted development to guard against flooding from the sea and from extreme precipitation events, while it creates a unique
natural and vacation paradise on the South Sea Islands.
- There are great potentials in thinking in the development, value creation and
synergies, rather than for conservation and protection in the traditional sense.
- It is important to start in coordinating the technical, natural, recreational and
tourist development opportunities along with the needs for the protection of the
coastal zone.
- That it is essential to gather the main stakeholders from the dyke association,
municipality, landowners, holiday cottage owners, nature conservationists, etc..
in an open dialogue on opportunities and constraints for development of the
coastal zone.
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- That the south coast of Lolland presents a unique opportunity for intelligent
recycling of surplus soil from the tunnel construction under the Fehmarn Belt.
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