Investment booming, occupier demand blooming

Transcription

PROPERTY TIMES
Investment booming,
occupier demand blooming
Belgium Retail Q4 2015
28 January 2016
Contents
Economic overview
2
Belgian retail market
4
Investment market
6
Shopping centres
•
2015 is an all-time record year for investment in Belgian retail with 2.155 MEUR
invested across all retail segments (Figure 1).
•
The largest investment transaction over Q4 was the acquisition of Galéries Saint
Lambert in Liège by AG Real Estate. Foreign investors also played a major role in
the interest in Belgian retail, representing about 63% of total investment volumes.
•
Yield compressions have taken place in every retail segment due to the increased
competition stemming from this wave of overseas investments.
•
Take-up figures for 2015 (337,000 sq m) reflect good levels of leasing activity.
Activity picked up over the second half of the year driven by international brands.
•
Rents are picking up again on AAA-locations as there is good demand for flagship
stores: with e-commerce progressing these high visibility shops have more and
more an additional marketing and showroom function. For example Toison d’Or in
Brussels uptown has attracted tenants such as Apple and Marks & Spencer.
•
Out of town retail schemes benefited from the upgrading of architecture and
clusters of greater quality, with classical inner town brands like H&M progressing
into the periphery.
•
There are more projects in the pipeline on the Brussels and Walloon side than in
Flanders. Notable deliveries in 2015 include the Toison d’Or in Brussels uptown
and Vrijdagmarkt Ghent for main streets and be-MINE in Beringen, Leonardo in
Evere, or Mains et Sabots Estaimpuis in the out of town retail segment.
•
The market is heading for a busy 2016 with two new shopping centres (Rive
Gauche in Charleroi and Docks Bruxsel in Brussels) as well as significant out of
town retail developments by IKEA in Hasselt and Mons.
8
Main streets
10
Out of town retail
12
Authors
Shane O’Neill
Research Analyst
+ 32 (0)2 510 08 33
shane.oneill@cushwake.com
Jef Van Doorslaer
Director, Research - Belgium &
Luxembourg
+32 (0)2 510 08 18
jef.vandoorslaer@cushwake.com
Figure 1
Retail investment volumes Belgium, MEUR
Cédric Van Meerbeeck
Associate Director, Head of Research
– Belgium & Luxembourg
+ 32 (0)2 629 02 86
cedric.vanmeerbeeck@cushwake.com
Contacts
Magali Marton
Head of Research EMEA
+33 1 49 64 49 54
magali.marton@cushwake.com
€ 2.500
€ 2.000
€ 1.500
€ 1.000
€ 500
Joanna Tano
Head of Operations EMEA Research
+44 20 7152 59 577
joanna.tano@cushwake.com
€0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
cushmanwakefield.com
PROPERTY TIMES
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Retail Belgium Q4 2015
Economic climate
Economic recovery remains intact despite the
terrorist alert in Belgium.
Latest available figures suggest that the GDP growth will stand
at 1.4% for the year 2015, The November terrorist attacks in
Paris had repercussions in Belgium in Q4, leading to disruption
of economic activity in Brussels. However, as in France, we
expect this impact to be short-lived. The outlook for 2016 also
stand at 1.4%, rising to 1.6% per year further out. This will
leave Belgian growth slightly behind the Eurozone average. In
the medium term, Belgium faces a number of structural
constraints on growth, leaving the GDP growth below the precrisis level of 2.3% (Figure 2).
The consumer confidence index has increased slightly over the
last quarter, recording its highest level since the beginning of
2011. Despite the terrorist alerts in November, consumers
continue to grow more confident regarding the global economic
climate of the country and the fear of a new rise in
unemployment has decreased during the last three months.
Encouragingly, the business confidence indicator also recorded
a positive evolution since September. It also reached its
highest level since the beginning of 2011, mainly helped by a
rebound in investment over the last quarter. The expected rise
of demand for corporate services had positive impacts.
Business and consumer sentiments should remain relatively
high in the coming months and point to a reasonable growth
outlook heading into 2016 (Figure 3).
Figure 2
GDP growth
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
Brussels
Flanders
Wallonia
Source: Oxford Economics, December 2015
Figure 3
Consumer and business confidence indices
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
Unemployment is expected to decrease at a
faster pace in Brussels as from 2016.
Consumer confidence
Business confidence
Source: National Bank of Belgium, December 2015
At the end of 2015, the unemployment rate stands at around
8.7% globally for Belgium.
Linked to the economic recovery, a downside movement is
expected to start as from 2016 and the pace should accelerate
in 2017 and 2018. The unemployment rate is expected to
reach 7.8% in 2018 but very important disparities between
regions will still be observed (Figure 4).
In Flanders, the unemployment rate should stand at 4.5% in
2018, coming from a current rate of 5.1%. In Wallonia, this rate
could reach 10.7% compared to 12% in 2015.
Remaining at high level, the unemployment rate is forecasted
to decrease at a faster rate in Brussels. Standing currently
around 18.6%, it could decrease down to 17.2% in 2018.
The decrease of the employment taxation is expected to have
positive impacts on job creation in Belgium.
Figure 4
Unemployment rate
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Brussels
Flanders
Wallonia
Belgium
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High population growth
Figure 5
Yearly Population growth projection Belgium 2015-2029
Together with the UK and Sweden, Belgium has one of the
highest population growth projections in Europe. Over the
period 2015-2029 almost 50 000 extra inhabitants per year will
support retail sales considerably. The small dip in population
growth in the 2016-2018 period (see Figure 5) may have to be
reviewed upwards following the expected immigration of a
growing number of asylum seekers. Brussels (and other central
Belgian areas) are the fastest growing regions in terms of
population; Brussels is among the fastest growing cities in
Europe.
54.000
52.000
50.000
48.000
46.000
44.000
42.000
40.000
Disposable income picking up by 2017-2018.
Source: Federal Planning Bureau, December 2015
In 2016, growth in disposable income should remain
constrained by a further rise in inflation. The growth rates of the
disposable income In Belgium since the 2008 crisis were below
the 3% margin. It is expected that these growth rates will finally
be picking up again over 2016 to go over the 3% bar in the
2017-2018 period, exceeding the equivalent figures for the
Eurozone.
Figure 6
Growth of Disposable Income Belgium
6%
5%
4%
The forecasted demographic growth will obviously contribute to
retail sales growth. Despite forecasted to undergo a slowdown
of growth in 2015 (relative to a buoyant 2014), annual retail
sales figures do not translate the important boost to figures in
Q3 following a sluggish start to the year. Indeed retail sales
expanded over the second half of 2015, supported by the boost
to real disposable incomes from low inflation. Forecasted
growth for 2015 varies between 0.17% (Brussels) and 0.88%
(Flanders) (Figure 7) – the global rate for Belgium is
0.72%.Furthermore, increased and steady retail sales growth
forecasts (albeit at different rates from region to region)
between 2016 and 2018 lend credence to the development of
retail schemes to answer the increase of consumer demand.
3%
2%
1%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Healthy retail sales growth.
Figure 7
Location-based retail sales growth
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
-0.50%
-1.00%
-1.50%
2011
2012
Brussels
2013
2014
2015
Flanders
2016
2017
2018
Wallonia
Source: Oxford Economics
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Belgian retail market
2015 is an all-time record year for investment in
Belgian retail.
At the end of Q4, 2015 is an absolute all-time record year for
investment in Belgian retail, with more than EUR 2.15 bn
invested and activity reaching record levels in every retail
segment. Foreign players formed the basis for this interest, as
they represented about 63% of total investment volumes.
Belgian players focused their know-how on investments in
main streets and out of town retail. Due to increased
competition stemming from the wave of overseas investments,
yield compressions have taken place in every segment.
International brands influencing demand for
spaces.
Despite good take-up figures, the overall sentiment in the retail
market has cooled over 2015: the turnover and margins of
many retailers are under pressure, which was reflected in
several bankruptcies (Mer du Nord, O’Cool, Mexx …).
International brands are having a bearing on main street retail
where they are opting for large spaces in new projects able to
(re-)generate footfall and consumer activity, as well as
contributing to an upgrade of out of town retail where they are
increasingly present.
The clear upgrading of formats, architecture and locations in
the out of town retail market means outlets are increasingly
moving away from the classic “shoe box” type of format thanks
to designs of greater quality. This process should also benefit
from the regionalisation of the law on commercial
establishments (see comment on this page). As a result, out of
town retail is gradually shedding its discount image.
Significant new developments added to retail
landscape as market is braced for a busy 2016.
2015 has witnessed notable deliveries, in out of town retail and
main streets in particular, with the completion of the Toison
d’Or in the case of the latter – notable for being the location
chosen for Belgium’s first Apple Store as well as the return of
Marks & Spencer after an absence of more than a decade. The
out of town retail market has also been busy with deliveries
such as be-MINE in Beringen and Leonardo in Evere (Map 1).
Furthermore, the market is braced for a busy 2016 with two
new shopping centres (Rive Gauche in Charleroi and Docks
Bruxsel in Brussels) as well as significant out of town retail
developments by IKEA in Hasselt and Mons (Map 2).
Regionalisation of legislation on commercial
establishments
Regional governments have inherited the competence for
establishing rules on commercial premises from the federal
government. Previously, both federal and regional bodies
were involved in this process, designed to prevent the
proliferation of increasingly ageing small retail warehouses,
already scattered willy-nilly along Belgium’s national roads.
Brussels and Wallonia are close to adopting new regional
laws. Both insist on consumer protection, integration in the
urban environment, and smooth mobility. Discussions are
ongoing in Flanders while the previous federal law remains
applied.
•
In Brussels, communes are responsible for
delivering the sole required planning permit for
projects of less than 1,000 sq m. For larger
surfaces, the Region is the relevant body.
Previously socio-economic as well as planning
permits were required.
•
In Wallonia, communes are responsible for
delivering the sole required planning permit for
projects between 400 sq m and 2,500 sq m; the
Region is the relevant body for premises that are
larger than 2,500 sq m.
•
In Flanders, the new decree, voted 18/12/2015, is
merging retail permits with the urban planning
permit and environmental permit into a new
unique permit system; local communes have a
large decision power. The general policy is clearly
to favour city centre developments and to limit out
of town projects.
Secondary streets oversupply
The overall retail vacancy in Belgium grew to 7.6% in 2015
according to Locatus. In A locations, this vacancy amounts
to approximately 5%, generally deemed a healthy level,
enabling rotation and further growth. However in more
tertiary C locations, overall vacancy levels actually amount
to up to 19%, with smaller cities suffering more than larger
and top cities. This is also the case in towns such as
Verviers and Mons where main- and secondary streets
vacancy levels suffer from competition generated by
nearby large-scale retail parks or shopping centres (for
which vacancy rates amount to 5% to 6% on a national
level) as well as further expansion projects for such
schemes.
It would make sense that Belgian politicians and retailentrepreneur organisations like Unizo and UCM develop a
policy that can organise a smoother transition of streets
with high vacancy problems to help reinforce core city
centre main street areas.
They should enable future developments to take the
delicate balance between the different retail segments into
account, especially in inner cities, where the risk of
oversupply is further threatened by the tightened legislation
on commercial establishments (see comment above).
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Map 1
Retail deliveries 2015
Size (sq m)
1.000
5.000
10.000
Shopping centres
Main streets
Out Of Town Retail
0 5 10
20
30
40
Kilometers
Cushman & Wakefield
Sources : ESRI, Teleatlas, BrusselsUrbis
Map 2
Retail projects 2016
Size (sq m)
1.000
5.000
10.000
Shopping centres
Main streets
Out Of Town Retail
0 5 10
20
30
40
Kilometers
Cushman & Wakefield
Sources : ESRI, Teleatlas, BrusselsUrbis
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Investment market
All-time record activity on the Belgian investment
market in 2015.
Globally in Belgium, the investment market witnessed
impressive activity. Since the start of the year, more than EUR
4bn have been invested in all commercial real estate sectors,
reaching volumes comparable to top investment years before
the 2008 crisis (Figure 8).
Important transactions have been observed in every sector but
it is mainly the retail investment market which performs at a
record level, as the Wijnegem and Waasland shopping centres,
an Equilis out of town retail portfolio (EUR 75 m), the
Constellation main streets portfolio (EUR 80 m), the Galéries
St Lambert (approx. EUR 133 m), and the Basilix Shopping
Centre (EUR 65 m) contribute to this vast volume.
Figure 8
Breakdown of Belgian investment volumes by asset type,
MEUR
5
4
3
2
1
0
Brussels office
Industrial
Regional office
Healthcare
Retail
Other
As a result of this impressive activity, the total volume invested
in the retail sector is at a record EUR 2.15bn.
Figure 9
Intense activity in every retail segment, leading to
a record year.
Breakdown of investment volumes by retail segment,
MEUR
2.500
Intense activity has been observed in every retail segment in
Belgium, leading to the impressive EUR 1.7bn already invested
in retail since the start of the year (Figure 9).
Not surprisingly, the pan-European Celsius portfolio,
purchased by AEW and the Chinese investor CIC, with trophy
assets such as the Wiinegem Shopping Centre and Waasland
Shopping Centre (combined value of approx. EUR 865 million),
amount to a large part of the total invested so far this year.
Other shopping centres also changed hands in 2015, such as
the Galeries Saint-Lambert in Liège sold by CBRE GI to AG
Real Estate (Q4; approx. EUR 133 million); the Basilix
Shopping Centre was the first acquisition of the French
investor Primonial in Belgium (EUR 65 m); the Feest &
Cultuurpaleis in Oostende, acquired by Union Investment for
EUR 36 m.
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Shopping Centre
Main Street
Out of Town Retail
Investment activity is also at a record level in the Main Streets
segment (EUR 552 m) since the start of the year. Transactions
are observed all over the country, though absent from the Rue
Neuve in Brussels. The most important transaction is the
Constellation portfolio (Vrijdagmarkt and Langemunt in Ghent,
Bruul in Mechelen), purchased by CBRE Global Investors for
EUR 79 m.
Though at a lower level, investment since the start of the year
in Out of Town Retail is at a high of EUR 420 m; only once in
Belgian history more Out of Town retail investment volume was
recorded in 2001 (due to the acquisition of the GIB portfolio by
Redevco, still the largest retail transcation ever in this market).
Three different portfolios representing more than EUR 240 m
invested, (the so-called Rockspring portfolio, an Equilis
portfolio and a Redevco portfolio) were acquired by Belgian or
UK investors.
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Foreign players represent about 63% of the total
invested volumes over 2015.
areas). Prime yields for out of town retail stand around 5.75%,
against 6.25% one year ago.
Figure 10
The retail market in 2015 is characterised by a very strong
foreign investor presence. Belgian players represent only 37%
of total invested volumes (Figure 10).
Thanks to the approx. EUR 865 m purchase of Wijnegem
(50%) and Waasland Shopping Centres, the share of Asian
investors stands at some 40% of the total invested volume,
even though they were involved in one major deal since the
start of the year.
European investors like UK (CBRE Global Investors), German
(Union Investment), Dutch (Vastned Retail) and French
(Primonial or Techeyné) investors are also active on the
Belgian retail market, with more than EUR 414 m invested.
Breakdown of investment volumes by purchaser
nationality
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US players continue to be present in 2015 with two acquisitions
by Fidelity Worlwide, the retail park Les Dauphins and the main
street asset located in Waterloo (Chaussée de Bruxelles 113115) totaling more than EUR 63 m.
Foreign investors present in every segment,
Belgian players focused on main streets and out
of town retail.
It was a belgian player, AG Real Estate, that finalized the
acquisition of Galeries St Lambert in Q4, but most other
shopping centre property was bought by foreign investors, like
French (Basilix Shopping Centre), German (Feest &
Cultuurpaleis) or French/Chinese (Wijnegem & Waasland
Shopping Centres) investors (Figure 11). The size and the
specificities of these assets attract more and more foreign
investors who are attracted by good Belgian retail property that
is seen as risk averse, leading to stronger competition and
yield compression.
Belgium
China
France
Germany
Ireland
Italy
Luxemburg
Netherlands
UK
US
Figure 11
Breakdown of investment by nationality and retail
segment, 2015
US
UK
Netherlands
Luxemburg
Ireland
Germany
France
China
Belgium
0%
20%
Main street
Conversely, these foreign investors are less active in the main
street segment, but still Belgian players have to compete with
UK, US or Dutch investors there also to acquire key positions.
40%
60%
Shopping centre
80%
100%
Out of Town Retail
Figure 12
Though more limited, the compression is also observable in the
high street segment (Figure 12) where prime yields pass below
the cap rate of 4% to stand at around 3.75%. Some very
specific assets are even purchased at a yield around or below
3% (trophy assets or key positions in the most prestigious
Bruxelles - Rue Neuve
Antwerpen - Meir
Liege - Vinave d'Ille
Gent - Veldstraat
Brugge - Steenstraat
Hasselt - Hoogstraat
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
The compression is the most important in the shopping centre
segment where prime yields are currently to be found at
around 4.25% (coming from approx. 5.4% one year ago).
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2001
After a long period of stability in every retail segment, we
observe a sharp yield compression since the end of 2014 in
most prime retail segments.
Prime yields top main streets Belgium
2000
Strong competition leads to sharp yield
compressions in every segment.
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Retail take-up
Figure 13
Healthy take-up similar to 2011-2014.
Take-up retail Belgium (000 sq. m.)
400
Overall take-up in Belgium was almost 340,000 sq.m. (Figure
13) less or more at the same level as previous years. A whole
series of transactions that were published half January 2016
will be counted in the 2016 take-up, as we did for the
transactions published half January 2015. Retailers were rather
hesitating to take decisions during the first half of the year, but
activity seemed to be picking up, especially during Q4 when
more than 112,000 sq m transactions were published.
Shopping centres
Healthy take-up similar to 2011-2013.
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2008
2009
2010
Main Street
Take-up in shopping centres amounted to 46,000 sq m in the
over 2015. It was not expected that the strong demand of 2014
(65,500 sq m) would be be matched, 2015 should be a good
year, more in line with the 2011-2013 period in terms of the
take-up volume. Indeed, the end of 2014 saw the beginning of
the commercialisation of Docks Bruxsel boost annual figures
as well as almost a dozen of deals in the Wijnegem Shopping
Centre.
Brussels shopping centres are busy.
This year’s current top ranked shopping centre is Docks
Bruxsel with 27 deals (where more than thirty were sealed in
the last quarter of 2014) (Figure 14). Docks is understandably
the highest ranked due to its looming delivery, expected in
September of 2016. Several Cora centres figure in the ranking;
Cora Anderlecht stands out, thanks in part to retentions.
Brussels shopping centres compose more than half of this
ranking with more projects (Mall of Europe, and UPlace on the
outskirts of Brussels) composing the pipeline.
2011
2012
2013
Out of Town retail
2014
2015
Shopping Center
Figure 14
Top performing shopping centres by number of deals in
2015
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Openings
Renewals
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Wallonia and Brussels have more projects in the
pipeline than Flanders.
One renovation of note, Stockel Square, took place in 2015.
Many refurbishments and deliveries are however awaited in
2016:
Figure 15
Prime rents: Belgian shopping centres, EUR/sq m/year
(shops of 150 to 200 sq m with 6m frontage)
1600
1400
1200
•
Docks Bruxsel ( 45,000 sq m) in Brussels
•
Dok Noord (18,000 sq m) in Ghent
800
•
Post Plaza refurbishment (3,000 sq m) in Ghent
400
•
Les Grands Prés extension (6,000 sq m) in Mons
•
Rive Gauche (38,000 sq m) Charleroi
•
Docks Bruxsel (41,000 sq m) in Brussels (see
comment below)
In the longer term, AG Real Estate’s The Mint (15,000 sq m
Centre Monnaie refurbishment) in Brussels and Wereldhave
Belgium’s Les Bastions extension (14,500 sq m) in Tournai
should be completed in 2017.
1000
600
200
0
Antwerpen - Wijnegem Shopping
Bruxelles - Woluwe Shopping
Sint-Niklaas - Waasland Shopping
Bruxelles - Westland Shopping
LLN - L'esplanade
Liège - Médiacité
Further down the line, initial permits for the 21,000 sq m
extension of L’Esplanade in Louvain-la-Neuve have been
granted and Wilhelm & Co’s La Strada (38,500 sq m) in La
Louvière awaits a go-ahead in 2016. There are as yet no
definitive outcomes on the Mall of Europe (NEO Heysel) and
Uplace projects in Brussels’ northern periphery; the ‘Conseil
d’Etat’ supreme court has recently advised in appeal
procedures and the Flemish regional government gave its go
for the local urban planning scheme, which is an important
step forward for the Uplace project. Wallonia and Brussels
have more projects in the pipeline than Flanders: in the
2017-2019 pipeline we only expect only one major
development in the northern part of Belgium to be delivered,
the inner city Kanaalkom project in Hasselt.
W Shopping and Wijnegem prime rents are the
highest.
Shopping centre rents remain relatively high in Belgium,
although they have been under downward pressure over
recent quarters. The highest rents are noted in the W Shopping
(Woluwe) at EUR 1,300/sq m/year, with Wijnegem Shopping
not far behind with EUR 1,200/sq m/year (Figure 15). Together
with Médiacité, L’Esplanade has recorded the most significant
rental growth over the past two to three years, respectively
coming from EUR 600- and EUR 800/sq m/year in 2011 to
EUR 700- and EUR 950/sq m/year currently.
Docks Bruxsel, the newest large shopping centre (extensions excluded) on the Brussels landscape in more than a decade is
already over 85% pre-let ahead of its delivery in the second half of 2016.
Given the UPlace and Mall of Europe (Neo) projects located in the northern periphery of Brussels, Docks Bruxsel’s
development is a sound feat which provides part of a solution to demand for a shopping centre in the northern part of Brussels.
Furthermore its arrival is timely in light of the significant revival underway along the canal.
We therefore expect it to garner significant investor interest in light of the booming retail investment market in Belgium.
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Main streets
International brands drive take-up with large
deals.
The main streets take-up over 2015 was approx. 126,000 sq m
(Figure 16). Take-up in the high street is clearly up since the
dip in 2012, even though the number of deals is not fully
following pace, pointing towards an increase in the size of
surfaces required by retailers. This chimes in with the fact that
international retailers such as Primark, Marks & Spencer, Zara
and Uniqlo – often thirsty for large spaces – have been a main
source of demand, and may be a source of concern to smaller
independent Belgian retailers.
Figure 16
Take-up: main streets
140
500
120
400
100
80
300
60
200
40
100
20
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
000 sq m
Most activity on Meir.
Antwerp’s Meir currently ranks joint highest among all Belgian
main streets in terms of number of deals (Figure 17). Indeed
Antwerp’s status as Belgium’s fashion capital is also underlined
by the presence of Huidevettersstraat in the ranking of top
performing main streets.
Twenty deals have so far taken place in Big Six locations in
2015. Seven of these deals took place on the Meir in Antwerp,
including lettings by H&M and Uniqlo (1,900 sq m and 1,400 sq
m respectively). Veldstraat Ghent was also very active with
four leases for 2,970 sq m, including WE (2,112 sq m).
Hasselt’s Hoogstraat and Steenstraat Brugge both recorded
three lettings and a renewal, while Vinave d’Île in Liège only
recorded one transaction in 2015.
Projects aiming to create homogenous shopping
experiences.
0
Deals (right hand scale)
Figure 17
Top performing main streets by number of deals in 2015
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
10
8
6
4
2
0
Take Up
Nbr of transactions
This year’s standout main street delivery was Prowinko’s
Toison d’Or in Brussels, providing 13,000 sq m for brands
including Bodum, Zara, Marks & Spencer and Apple (see
spotlight below).
Several projects on main streets have been announced in
2015, with many focusing on Ghent where in excess of 15,000
sq m have been announced this year, often combined with
residential functions. These projects are leading to a more
homogeneous shopping experience on Ghent’s previously
fragmented retail landscape. In addition to MG Real Estate’s
Vrijdagmarkt / Langemunt project where Primark has opened a
4,500 sq m store, these projects include Ghelamco’s Tribeca
project (6,000 sq m retail) and Matexi’s 5,500 sq m Kouterdreef
project (opening in the first semester of 2016) with Colruyt’s
CRU line already earmarked as an occupier.
Marks & Spencer and Apple’s arrival in the Toison d’Or
represents a coup for Prowinko due to the former’s return
to Belgium following a 14 year absence and a first ever
and long-awaited Belgian store in the case of the latter.
These openings have been greeted enthusiastically by
consumers, underlined by the 4,000 daily visitors footfall
increase measured by Atrium (the Brussels region trade
agency) in the Avenue de la Toison d’Or – Porte de Namur
– Brussels uptown area. These brands’ arrival are
expected to boost the prospects of retail development in
the area in the long term.
Main- and secondary streets in towns such as Mons and
Verviers are currently suffering from poorly poised demand
biased towards newer peripheral shopping developments and
could benefit from a more continuous and coherent retail
landscape, as well as more complementarity with said newer
developments.
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Prime rents in top main streets are picking up
again.
Rue Neuve in Brussels and Antwerp’s Meir lead the main
streets prime rent ranking with top levels of EUR 1,850/sq
m/year. In Flanders, Veldstraat in Ghent as well as Steenstraat
in Bruges encountered corrections over the last year as a
consequence of projects emerging in alternative locations such
as Langemunt in Ghent, (Figure 18).
But now most top streets see rents picking up again over the
last quarters, driven by good demand for flagship stores: with
e-commerce progressing these high visibility shops have more
and more an additional showroom and marketing function. In
secondary and even more tertiary streets, vacancy levels are
growing and rents are mostly down.
So primary locations in top and midsized cities perform well,
but smaller regional towns have it difficult to compete: relatively
high vacancy levels and competition of out of town retail
continue to put downward pressure on rents in these locations.
Figure 18
Prime rents: main streets, EUR/sq m/year (shops of 150 to
200 sq m with 6m frontage)
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Brussels - Rue Neuve
Gent - Veldstraat
Liege - Vinave d'lle
Brussels - Avenue Louise
Antwerpen - Meir
Brugge - Steenstraat
Hasselt - Hoogstraat
PROPERTY TIMES
11
Out of Town retail
Figure 19
Slight decrease of activity in 2015.
Take-up: Out of Town retail
The market for retail parks and out of town stores is doing
relatively well although less boisterous than over the 20112013 period, with take-up totalling 166,000 sq m at the end
2015 (Figure 19).
High street brands boost out of town upgrade.
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
Demand is evolving towards high scale out of town retail with
more and more high street names like H&M found in retail park
environments where they can reach a further their reach on
consumers and benefit from much lower rents than in main
streets. As a result, there is a clear upgrading of formats,
architecture and locations happening in this market: the trend
is moving increasingly away from the classic discount “shoe
box” type of outlets with design of greater quality such as DShopping in Deinze (delivered in 2014) or be-MINE in
Beringen, delivered this year or retail warehouses such as
Bulthaup in Sint-Stevens-Woluwe or Audi in Wavre which
include a high-end restaurant in the premises.
Many deliveries, more to come.
About 87,000 sq m of new and refurbished retail parks as well
as extensions have been delivered in 2015 including:
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
000 sq m
0
Deals (right hand scale)
Figure 20
Top performing brands in Out of Town locations by sq m
take-up 2015
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
•
be-MINE, a 15,000 sq m retail park developed on a
former mining site in Beringen
•
Redevco’s refurbished (11,000 sq m) and extended
(6,000 sq m) Viva Shopping in Sint-Eloois-Vijve
•
Estaimpuis Retail Park Mains et Sabots (16,500 sq m)
near Mouscron
Figure 21
•
Leonardo, a retail park that can grow to 18,500 sq m
in Evere developed around the new Decathlon store,
one of the largest of its kind
•
Dansaert Park (8,500 sq m)in Groot-Bijgaarden
•
Witte Molen, a 10,000 sq m park by Group Tans in
Aarschot
Prime rents: out of town retail, EUR/sq m/year (prime
shops of 1000 sq m)
200
180
160
140
120
100
In terms of projects, there are close to 90,000 sq m to follow by
the beginning of 2016, including IKEA’s retail parks in Mons
(adjacent to the Grands Prés shopping centre) and in Hasselt.
80
Top prime rents are stable.
20
Prime rents for top retail parks across Belgium vary from EUR
100/sq m/year in locations such as Mons to EUR 160/sq
m/year in Zaventem and have varied very little over the past
year (Figure 21).
60
40
0
Brussels - Rue de Stalle
Antwerpen - Bredabaan
Antwerpen - Boomsteenweg
Liege - Rocourt
Gent - Kortrijksesteenweg
Brugge - Maalsesteenweg
PROPERTY TIMES
12
EMEA
Belgium
Capital Markets
John Forrester
Chief Executive
+44 (0)20 3296 2002
john.forrester@cushwake.com
Koen Nevens
CEO Northern Region
+32 (0)2 546 08 63
koen.nevens@cushwake.com
Arnaud de Bergeyck
Partner
+32 (0)2 546 08 77
arnaud.debergeyck@cushwake.com
Leasing Retail
Leasing Out of Town Retail
Leasing Retail Shopping Centres
Boris van Haare Heijmeijer
Partner
+32 (0)2 546 08 53
boris.vanhaareheijmeijer@cushwake.com
Jean Baheux
Partner
+32 (0)2 546 08 61
jean.baheux@cushwake.com
Nicolas Beaussillon
Partner
+32 (0)2 546 08 88
nicolas.beaussillon@cushwake.com
Leasing Main Street Retail
Flanders
Leasing Main Street Retail
Brussels & Wallonia
Evelien Van Hoecke
Partner
+32 (0)2 546 08 20
evelien.vanhoecke@cushwake.com
Jonathan Delguste
Partner
+32 (0)2 510 08 30
jonathan.delguste@cushwake.com
Disclaimer
This report has been produced by Cushman & Wakefield for use by those with an interest in commercial property
solely for information purposes. It is not intended to be a complete description of the markets or developments to
which it refers. The report uses information obtained from public sources which Cushman & Wakefield believe to be
reliable, but we have not verified such information and cannot guarantee that it is accurate and complete. No
warranty or representation, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information
contained herein and Cushman & Wakefield shall not be liable to any reader of this report or any third party in any
way whatsoever. All expressions of opinion are subject to change. The data contained in this report is based upon
that collected by DTZ. Our prior written consent is required before this report can be reproduced in whole or in part.
©2015 Cushman & Wakefield.
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Investment booming, occupier demand blooming

Transcription

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