The State of the Market - Alexandria Economic Development
Transcription
The State of the Market - Alexandria Economic Development
ALEXANDRIA The State of the Market YEAR-END 2013 Alexandria Economic Development Partnership 625 N. Washington St., Ste. 400 Alexandria, Virginia 22314 (703) 739-3820 ALEXANDRIAideal.com Get up-to-date information and connect with us: ALEXANDRIA ideal: The Source for Commercial Real Estate News Follow us! @ALEXANDRIAideal Landmark Gateway (Image Credit: Belfast Valley Contractors) This publication is part of our research and data series on the City of Alexandria. This report is released twice a year and provides the latest updates on the City’s economy, the status of different development projects, insights into the office and retail markets, and residential sales patterns. Each report features a spotlight section that will go into more depth on a particular topic. With this information, we hope to provide a comprehensive snapshot of the City of Alexandria for real estate professionals, business owners, and the general public. If you would like an update on any of this information between our major publications, please feel free to reach out to us. A L E X A N D R I A ECO N O M I C D E V E LO P M E N T PA R T N ER S H I P Facebook.com/ ALEXANDRIAideal Contact us for information on: · Development opportunities · Office/retail vacancies · Alexandria/submarket statistics and any questions on economic development topics. Y E A R - E N D 2 013 ALEXANDRIA DEVELOPMENT UPDATE Development Trends • Following the approval of the Landmark/Van Dorn small area plan, there has been a significant amount of development activity in Alexandria’s West End. Please see our spotlight piece at the end of this report for more information on the multi-family residential development occurring in the area. • Office tenants are taking advantage of market conditions by upgrading to newer buildings and are looking for trophy buildings with many amenities. Future development will likely occur in Carlyle and Potomac Yard in the form of build-tosuits or significant pre-leases, though no new speculative development is planned. Source: Alexandria Economic Development Partnership Noteworthy Development Projects • 1 Notch Eight, a mixed-use residential/retail development at Potomac Yard, is under construction. In addition to 253 residential units, this development will be anchored by a 65,000 sf Giant grocery store. It is expected to deliver in Q4 2015. • 5 Carr Hospitality gained approval for a second hotel to replace an existing one-story warehouse at 1 Prince Street. The hotel will include 120 rooms and a restaurant and will be the first major development project to break ground as a result of the Waterfront Small Area plan. •2 The Alric, a 323 unit multi-family residential development, is under construction at Potomac Yard. It is expected to deliver by Q4 2014. 6 Tony’s • Corner (2700 Jefferson Davis Highway) is a retail redevelopment planned for the current Afghan Restaurant site. The two-building commercial development will have space for two to seven retailers. • 3 The Frasier broke ground at Potomac Yard in September and is being developed by The Bozzuto Group and MGL Partners. This multi-family residential development will offer 249 units and amenities such as a yoga room and an outdoor courtyard with a pool. It is expected to deliver in 2015. • 7 The Robinson Terminal North and South sites on the Waterfront, owned by Graham Holdings (formerly the Washington Post Cos), are in the concept plan phase for redevelopment. The contract purchasers are City Interests and the team of EYA and JBG, respectively. 4 C • arr Hospitality is constructing a six-story hotel with 109 rooms, designed to achieve LEED Silver certification. The hotel, located on Prince Street near the King Street-Old Town Metro, will be operated by Hilton Garden Inn. 8 • Carlyle Plaza Two was granted permission to reallocate approved FAR from office to hotel and residential. This change in use will support demand anticipated from the future NSF headquarters in Carlyle by providing employee and visitor housing and lodging. Source: Alexandria Economic Development Partnership POTOMAC YARD Please see our spotlight section for more information on development in the West End. 7 395 ARLANDRIA G WEST END 420 DEL RAY F 395 A BRADDOCK 236 B D E 7 I 4 495 95 EISENHOWER VALLEY C 8 CARLYLE 1 •A •B Yates Corner (O/Rt) The Belle Pre (Rs/Rt) 2 6 1 3 H Recently Completed Projects 5 OLD TOWN & WATERFRONT Expected 2014 Deliveries •C 2461 Eisenhower (O/Rt) •D The Kingsley (Rs/Rt) •E The Oronoco (Rs) •F Bell Del Ray (Rs/Rt) •G Del Ray Tower (Rs/Rt) •H Safeway at Bradlee Center (Rt) •I Landmark Gateway (Rs/Rt) O: Office Rs: Residential Rt: Retail 495 95 A L E X A N D R I A ECO N O M I C D E V E LO P M E N T PA R T N ER S H I P Y E A R - E N D 2 013 Alexandria Office Indicators ALEXANDRIA OFFICE UPDATE Vacancy Net Absorption Asking Rents change from Year-End 2012 Regional Office Trends and Forecasts • The regional office market has made meaningful progress in 2013, and new vacancies are starting to cease. Regionally, in 2013, positive absorption was realized for the first time in several years. •Vacancy rates across the region are expected to show little change. New speculative construction inside the beltway will be sporadic and metro-centric and will slow the recovery as more vacant office space is expected to come to market. • Effective rents declined 2.6% over 2012 figures (as of Q3 2013). Analysts expect year-end declines to be closer to 3%. In the Northern Virginia market, rent recovery is not expected to be noteworthy until 2016. •The key to commercial real estate growth will be in private sector job growth, but the impacts of this growth are not expected to be seen until 2015/2016. Government and government-related businesses are preparing for another contraction in the face of continuing federal cutbacks. • In the next three years, leases will expire for 31M sf of federal tenants in this region. The GSA will continue their practice to compete these leases in the region, looking for transitoriented, economically advantageous solutions. This will help to drive more speculative development in desirable locations, because large blocks of high quality space in desirable locations are becoming scarce. •Office demand will remain constrained, and tenants may be apprehensive, which will translate into shorter leases, renewals and termination rights. Tenants will continue to rightsize and become more efficient, and landlords are continuing to offer concessions and adding amenities, like conference facilities and fitness centers, to remain competitive. Source: Delta Associates, Alexandria Economic Development Partnership ALEXANDRIA OFFICE MARKET •As of Q4 2013, the vacancy rate was 17.2%, a decrease of 0.5% over vacancy at midyear 2013. Total Commercial Office Blocks Available •Alexandria has seen modest positive absorption in 2013. Q4 2013 net absorption was 10,066 sf, and the overall net absorption for the year was 119,000 sf. 30 •Vacancy is likely to increase with the reintroduction of 2461 Eisenhower Avenue (330,000 sf) to the City’s inventory, anticipated in Spring 2014. The building is expected to be delivered 100% vacant and is located across the street from the National Science Foundation’s future headquarters. 20 •Rental rates hover in the mid $30s for Class A space, which is primarily located in the Carlyle submarket and the King Street Station complex. Rental rates for non-metro, Old Town locations fall between high $20s and low $30s full service. • Alexandria will make modest improvement in 2014, as tenant deal activity will remain scarce and new vacancy is expected to come online. Landlords will continue to be deal-makers by restructuring leases to retain tenants and offering creative deal structures to attract tenants to their projects. A L E X A N D R I A ECO N O M I C D E V E LO P M E N T PA R T N ER S H I P Source: CoStar 25 15 10 5 0 5K-9K 10K-24K Class A 25K-49K Class B 50K-99K * 100K> Class C has very few large blocks of Class A space available. *AsAlexandria market demand for this type of space recovers, Alexandria must focus on delivering Class A commercial office buildings in Carlyle and Potomac Yard to increase its available office stock and remain competetive. Y E A R - E N D 2 013 Alexandria Office Indicators ALEXANDRIA OFFICE UPDATE Vacancy Net Absorption Asking Rents change from Year-End 2012 NOTABLE LEASE TRANSACTIONS: JANUARY 1, 2013 THROUGH YEAR END 2013 1 National Science Foundation - 667,000 sf 2401 Eisenhower Ave: 15 year term POTOMAC YARD 2 Alexandria City Public Schools - 84,890sf 1340 Braddock Place: 15 year term 3 Stratford University - 59,779 sf 7 ARLANDRIA 395 8 2900 Eisenhower Avenue: 13.5 year term 4 Samueli Institute* - 27,084 sf 1737 King St: 9 year term 5 International Association of Chiefs of Police - 25,919 sf 44 Canal Center Plaza: 12.6 year term 420 9 DEL RAY 6 Deloitte* - 22,512 sf 1725 Duke Street: 5 year term 7 General Dynamics - 17,500 sf WEST WEST END END 2 BRADDOCK 2051 Jamieson Ave: 5 year term 8 City of Alexandria - 16,893 sf EISENHOWER VALLEY 4401 Ford Avenue: 5 year term 9 Community Anti-Drug Coalitions of America - 14,052 sf 3 625 Slaters Ln: 9.8 year term 1 7 4 6 OLD TOWN & WATERFRONT 10 Crossroads Media - 13,448 sf 66 Canal Center Plaza: 10 year term CARLYLE 5 10 1 495 95 *Renewal GROWING INDUSTRIES These are the types of tenants in the market that commercial real estate professionals are looking to place. These industries are expected to grow over the next several years and will require commercial space. IT Infrastructure Consolidation Cyber Security Veterans Medical & Benefits Programs Key focus for national security and defense agencies 10011001 01100110 10011001 01100110 Program Integrity Support Services for At-Risk Programs Pursue fraud waste & abuse in health care systems Companies are spending more money now to save themselves money in the future All are being protected and appropriated funds A L E X A N D R I A ECO N O M I C D E V E LO P M E N T PA R T N ER S H I P Help government manage programs that may need assistance during transition periods Y E A R - E N D 2 013 ALEXANDRIA RETAIL UPDATE Alexandria Retail Indicators change from Year-End 2012 Vacancy Net Absorption Asking Rents Retail Trends and Forecasts •US retail sales are expected to increase 5.5% in 2014 ($5.4 trillion) and will be 20% greater than the pre-recession peak. •Retail will see growth despite big box downsizing, and retailers are cautiously optimistic. •Luxury items and travel goods/services are driving the spending growth. All other consumer spending is projected to remain relatively flat. • Population trends and infill opportunities are attracting retailers to urban locations. One example is Target, which is moving away from its big box footprint of 90,000 sf to smaller-scale stores of 10,000 - 20,000 sf. Population density is now the key driver for new Target store locations. • Retail is becoming a “contact sport” where retailers are trying to deliver a better experience in stores than a user gets when browsing online. Sources: AEDP, International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), Urban Land Institute (ULI) ALEXANDRIA RETAIL MARKET • In total, Alexandria has 7.7M sf of retail space inventory. •The Alexandria retail vacancy rate at year-end was 3.8%, which is down from 4.5% at the end of Q2 2013. Some of this is attributed to the opening of the Fresh Market grocery store. This space was previously included in the vacancy rate. •Restaurants and grocery stores have been the name of the game in 2013. Following the recession, consumers are spending discretionary income on dining out and household goods, which consumers prefer to buy in person. • New grocery stores include the opening of the Fresh Market at Bradlee Center and the construction of the redesigned Safeway at King and Braddock. Two Harris Teeter stores (one under construction in Old Town and one approved in Carlyle) and the Giant under construction in Potomac Yard also increase the total grocery stores in the City. • Restaurants have played a large role in Alexandria’s retail this year. Restaurants that opened in 2013 include: Waterfront Market, M.E. Swings, and Seva Cafe. Restaurant deals that were signed in 2013 include: Hank’s Oyster Bar expansion, Vaso’s Mediterranean Bistro, Los Cuates, Carluccio’s, Blackwall Hitch, Lost Dog Cafe, Bastille, SweetFire Donna’s, Shakthi South Asian Cuisine and Burger 7. • Since the midyear, there have been additions to the apparel market in Alexandria as well. Men’s Pink Palm, Lululemon, Sara Campbell, The Lucky Knot Men’s Store, and Patina Polished Living have all opened or announced they will be opening new locations in Alexandria. A L E X A N D R I A ECO N O M I C D E V E LO P M E N T PA R T N ER S H I P Niche grocery stores Fitness/health spas Fast casual dining Discounters Automotive Online retailers WHAT’S HOT 2013 WHAT’S NOT Bookstores Mid-priced apparel Traditional grocery Traditional casual dining DIY home stores Consumer electronics Per ICSC, these categories represent national trends for expanding and contracting retail establishments in 2013. Y E A R - E N D 2 013 Alexandria Retail Indicators ALEXANDRIA RETAIL UPDATE change from Year-End 2012 Vacancy Net Absorption Asking Rents ECOMMERCE: CONVENIENCE V. EXPERIENCE In recent years, there has been an increased focus on how eCommerce will impact traditional retail establishments. Current thinking suggests that eCommerce is about convenience, while shopping is about the experience. The great majority of shoppers continue to have a preference for making in-store purchases, so retailers are trying to deliver a better instore experience than a user would get while browsing online. These trends will impact traditional retailers over the next several years. The forecast for the future will also affect how retailers do business: • eCommerce sales grew 13.4% in 2013 and are expected to grow another 11.1% in 2014. •Shopping centers that offer appealing experiences (free outdoor movies, yoga classes, concerts, wine tastings, etc) will outperform traditional malls and centers. •Shoppers often use eCommerce sites prior to visiting a store to check sales, competition, or to browse inventory. • Large eCommerce firms are driving the industrial boom with their need for mega bulk warehouses and more land for parking. For example, Amazon currently has 50M sf in distribution centers and wants to grow to 90M sf by 2016. •The fastest growth brick and mortar retailers trending in the near term will be those offering goods/services that cannot easily be bought online, like hair salons, restaurants, fitness, and entertainment. •Retail venues that are located in walkable, mixed-use developments will thrive. •Class “C” malls will need to explore creative solutions by putting in attractions such as grocery, Walmart, Costco, community colleges or libraries. Source: Alexandria Economic Development Partnership RETAILER METRICS AND SITE LOCATION Different types of retailers have specific metrics for evaluating site locations. Retailers are typically catagorized into three major groups: • Neighborhood Service/Convenience: These retailers provide goods and services that are “Saturday errand” types of shopping. This includes things like grocery stores, drug stores, and dry cleaners. • Food & Beverage: This category covers all establishments where food and beverage consumption occurs outside the home. This would include not only restaurants but ice cream shops, wine bars, and coffee houses. • General Merchandise, Apparel, Furnishings, & Other: These retailers provide merchandise that is traditionally sold at department stores. This includes home furnishings, clothing, books, office supplies, music, and sporting goods. Generally, retailers examine several criteria when making a location decision. Advertising materials for a particular available space often look like the example on the right. A L E X A N D R I A ECO N O M I C D E V E LO P M E N T PA R T N ER S H I P SAMPLE STATISTICAL SNAPSHOT 3,839 Population $ 8,642 83,450 Daytime Population Median Household Income 76.2% Bachelor’s Degree or Higher 13,211 Vehicle trips per day Note: Statistics are usually for a one, three, or five- mile radius Each retailer looks at different thresholds for each of these categories. No two retailers use the exact same evaluation parameters. Y E A R - E N D 2 013 Alexandria Economic Indicators ALEXANDRIA ECONOMIC INDICATORS change from Year-End 2012 Jobs Median Wages Unemployment JOBS AND TAX REVENUE Comparison of 2013 Jobs to 2012 Jobs Source: bls.gov and AEDP 22,726 GOVERNMENT PRIVATE 72,411 -2.6% -2.0% decrease from 2012 decrease from 2012 Total jobs were down 2.1% in December 2013 over December 2012 in the City. Job loss is a result of the sequester and the government shutdown. Arlington and Fairfax Counties both experienced stagnant job growth the second half of 2013. While the sequester has impacted Alexandria’s economy, experts project that 2014 will be a year of positive economic growth. As the National Science Foundation prepares to move to its new headquarters in Carlyle, there will be many opportunities for job growth over the next three to five years. Additional development in prime, metro-centric locations will further attract companies and employers to Alexandria. Growth in Sales Tax Revenue over 12 Months Ending in December 2013 Source: VA Department of Taxation Alexandria was the only major NoVA jurisdiction to see positive growth in sales tax revenue over the course of 2013. Sales tax revenue figures for all jurisdictions were worse in the second half +0.1% - 1.3% - 1.4% - 4.3% Alexandria Fairfax Arlington Loudoun of 2013 than they were during the first half of 2013. HIRING BY INDUSTRY Five-Year Comparison of Hiring Pre- and Post-Recession 11.0% Source: US Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics, Q1 2007 & Q1 2013 RETAIL CONSTRUCTION 8.4% 4.6% 9.3% Hiring as of Q1 2013 reflects changes in the economy that are a result of the recession and sequestration. Government hiring has decreased to less than half a percent of all hiring. Construction hiring has also decreased, though it will likely rebound as developers move forward with planned projects. Professional, scientific, and technical hiring has increased 15.1% PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, AND TECHNICAL 8.3% OTHER SERVICES 13.2% ADMINISTRATIVE & SUPPORT 6.4% HEALTH CARE AND SOCIAL ASSISTANCE 13.3% ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICES 1.8% GOVERNMENT 16.3% ALL OTHER INDUSTRIES significantly, as has hiring in the ‘all other industries’ category. In the ‘all other industries’ category, these increases are primarily due to increased hiring in educational services. Modest increases were also seen in arts, entertainment, and recreation. Alexandria’s hiring mirrors the regional projections around changes in the makeup of the local economy. We expect that retail and accommodation hiring will increase over the next few years as the economy continues to improve and approved hotel projects deliver. A L E X A N D R I A ECO N O M I C D E V E LO P M E N T PA R T N ER S H I P 2007 20.8% 8.8% 14.6% 6% 12% 0.4% 24.3% 2013 Y E A R - E N D 2 013 New Listings Alexandria Residential Indicators Average Days on Market ALEXANDRIA RESIDENTIAL UPDATE Median Sales Price change from Year-End 2012 Noteworthy Trends • Home sales are up significantly over 2012, increasing by 13.8% since December 2012. Alexandria significantly outpaced Fairfax (8.4%) and Arlington (6.3%) counties in growth of units sold. •The total sold dollar volume for the Alexandria market was up 21.0% in 2013. Alexandria saw higher dollar sold volume increases than Fairfax (16.9%) or Arlington (11.7%). • Over the past ten years, Alexandria has had higher growth in average sales price than Fairfax or Arlington. • Alexandria is one of the only jurisdictions in the region in which average home prices are higher than their peak prerecession levels. • Homes in Alexandria are being sold at values very close to the original list price. On average, homes are sold at 97.1% of the original list price. •On average, Alexandria homes are selling faster and are on the market for 40 days, which represents a 30% decrease in number of days on the market, as compared to 2012. Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence, December 2013 2013 HOME SALES: JULY - DECEMBER GROWTH IN HOME SALES BY TYPE 2500 2000 % +19.0 1500 +3.9% ARLANDRIA 42 NORTH RIDGE 7 395 POTOMAC YARD 94 34 DEL RAY 1000 WEST END % +21.4 500 420 378 59 TAYLOR RUN 29 395 236 0 ROSEMONT 50 45 BRADDOCK 2012 2013 29 495 Condo Single Family Attached Single Family Detached CHANGE IN AVERAGE SALES PRICE $550K 95 CARLYLE units sold 4.5% 10-Year Average Growth $400K $350K 2004 Alexandria 2009 Arlington 332 95 Single Family Detached Single Family Attached Condo Average Price $763,701 $627,896 $326,612 Increase in Average Price 11.6% 5.8% 6.2% Units Solds 469 765 1,096 Increase in Units Sold 21.4% 3.9% 19.0% 5.2% $450K 1 495 SUMMARY OF 2013 HOME SALES 4.7% $500K OLD TOWN & WATERFRONT 22 EISENHOWER VALLEY 2013 Fairfax A L E X A N D R I A ECO N O M I C D E V E LO P M E N T PA R T N ER S H I P Y E A R - E N D 2 013 ALEXANDRIA Spotlight: Multi-Family Development in the West End Landmark Gateway (Image Credit: JBGR) On June 13, 2009, the Alexandria City Council voted to incorporate the Landmark/ Van Dorn Corridor Plan into the City’s Master Plan. This plan “envisions the redevelopment of Landmark Mall and the major parcels to the south as a lively, mixed-use town center for Alexandria’s West End. Incorporating retail, residential, office and hotel development and a number of urban parks and plazas, the town center would be organized in a walkable grid of urban blocks. South on Van Dorn Street from Landmark Mall, the area between Edsall Road and Pickett Street would also be revitalized with new mixed-use development. A new transit system in dedicated lanes, as proposed in the City’s Transportation Master Plan, would provide connections to the Van Dorn Metro and to other locations in the region.” With the approval of this plan and the Beauregard Small Area Plan on June 16, 2012, developers began exploring options and planning for several multi-family residential and retail projects in this area. This spotlight focuses on projects that are currently underway or in the development pipeline. MULTI-FAMILY DEVELOPMENT IN THE WEST END Why Multi-family Residential Housing? Small Area Plan Boundaries The majority of projects under development today in the West End contain multi-family residential components. In fact, there are currently over 2,600 new units in the development pipeline in the West End. 1 395 KI BEAUREGARD BEAUREGARD NG .B EA UR EG W. B RA N OR N D DDO 5 SEM CK R INA RY D RD LN N VA ST ST N QUAKER 4 LANDMARK/ LANDMARK/ VAN VAN DORN DORN ST 395 8 ORN Multi-family residential development can also be a catalyst for attracting retail and office tenants. The additional population density that is gained through multi-family residential development also helps attract and support a healthy retail market. Retailers often look for a certain population density when making location decisions, and multi-family development helps communities meet these numbers. Higher density, multifamily development also attracts companies that are looking to employ the types of workers that choose to live in these areas. N. S. V AN D According to a study by Harvard University, approximately 50 million new housing units will need to be added to the country’s existing housing stock by 2030 in order to keep up with household and population growth. As housing trends shift towards more urban communities that allow residents to access public transportation and enjoy a walkable lifestyle, areas like the West End become especially attractvie for this type of residential development. AR D ST 7 6 DUKE ST 2 3 VAN DORN ST METRO 95 495 5. Seminary Overlook The projects below are in various stages of the development process. They are representative of the potential for the West End and will help shape additional future non-residential development in the area. This 770,000 sf project, which would be the first significant residential development in the Beauregard area, has been proposed to replace the existing low-rise apartments at Seminary Hill with 720 new units in four buildings. The project is currently in the concept review phase. JBG, who controls much of the developable land in Beauregard, has said that there will be 100 affordable units in the finished project. 1. Gateway at King and Beauregard 6. Landmark Gateway This project is in the concept review phase with the City. As proposed, a 628,000 sf mixed use project including almost 500 residential units, a hotel, office, retail space, and a grocery store will replace the former Jefferson Memorial Hospital. Landmark Gateway is a mixed-use project by Mill Creek Residential that is currently under construction and includes 492 residential units and 15,000 sf of first-floor retail. The site also includes an underground parking garage. During the first phase of the project, which is scheduled to deliver during Summer 2014, 360 apartment units and all of the retail space will be completed. 2. The Delaney This five-story, mixed-use development is currently approved to include 189 rental apartments, including studios, one- and two-bedroom units. There are also 23 units that have been set aside as affordable units. In addition, there will be approximately 9,000 sf of retail on the ground floor. There is no scheduled groundbreaking for The Delaney at this time. 7. Southern Towers The owners of this apartment complex propose to add density by turning an existing pad site into a 400,000 sf retail center, which will include a grocery store and hotel. 3. Cameron Park 8. Washington Suites Residences This mixed-use residential and retail project by JBG Properties will include 535 residential units and 12,000 sf of retail and will replace the existing Carpet One building. This project will convert the existing Washington Suites extended-stay hotel to a 219 unit apartment building. The plan calls for adding a small parking garage to the site. Otherwise, there will be no significant changes to the exterior of the current site. The majority of the units will be efficiencies. 4. Stevenson Avenue Residences Extension This expansion of the existing Stevenson Avenue Residences will include 121 new residential units next to the 80,000 sf of existing office space. This project would replace the existing surface parking lot with a multi-family residential building and underground parking. It would also include nine affordable housing units. Currently, negotiations are underway with two tenants for the existing office space. A L E X A N D R I A ECO N O M I C D E V E LO P M E N T PA R T N ER S H I P The strength of residential development in the West End provides a necessary population base to support the Landmark Mall redevelopment. These projects, along with the National Science Foundation relocation, provide important input into the West Eisenhower Small Area Plan, which will define a path forward for future infill along this corridor. Y E A R - E N D 2 013