Student Accommodation Plan - Stafford County Public Schools

Transcription

Stafford County
Public Schools
Student
Accommodation Plan
2009-10
Department of Strategic Planning and Accountability
Cheryl O’Connor, Supervisor of Planning and GIS
Douglas R. Schuch, Ph.D., Executive Director
David E. Sawyer, Ed.D., Superintendent
January 13, 2009
Stafford County Public Schools
Student Accommodation Plan
Table of Contents
Purpose of the Student Accommodation Plan ................................................................................ 3
Overview of the School Division.................................................................................................... 3
Stafford County Residential Development ..................................................................................... 5
Student Membership History and Forecast..................................................................................... 8
Forecast Methodology .................................................................................................................... 8
Capacity ........................................................................................................................................ 13
School Year 2009-10 Changes...................................................................................................... 14
School Attendance Area Boundaries ........................................................................................ 14
Feeder Patterns.......................................................................................................................... 20
Special Education Program Placements ................................................................................... 21
2
Purpose of the Student Accommodation Plan
The purpose of the Student Accommodation Plan (SAP) is to provide an annual comprehensive
look at school facility use to include review of building capacity, student membership, and
attendance boundaries. The SAP details both demographic and facility data used to support
decisions related to school facility utilization for the coming school year (2009-2010). Specific
information about each school is provided, as well as an overall description of membership and
capacity throughout the school division.
Information provided includes:
• Capacity analysis
• Historical and forecasted student membership
• Residential developments affecting membership
• School attendance area changes
Overview of the School Division
Stafford County Public Schools is currently comprised of 17 elementary schools, eight middle
schools, five high schools, and the Gary Melchers complex, which includes Head Start and
alternative education programs. See Figure 1 for the distribution of students throughout Stafford
County.
3
Figure 1. 2008-09 Student Distribution
k
kk
kk
kk
k
kk
k
k
k
k
k
k
k
k
k
k
k
k
k
k
k k
k
k
Scho ol Location
Majo r Road
Q uantico Mar ine Corp s Ba se
Stafford Cou nty
Each blue dot represents
the residence of at least
one K-12 student.
4
k
k
Stafford County Residential Development
Several subdivisions in Stafford County are building additional housing units, including many
single-family homes and townhomes, which are expected to impact the student membership at
several schools in the division (Figure 2). The following includes the areas that expect the most
housing growth in 2008 to 2009 with the associated schools:
•
Bells Run: Anthony Burns Elementary, Thompson Middle, Brooke Point High
•
Carriage Hills: Falmouth Elementary, Drew Middle, Stafford High
•
Port Aquia: Widewater Elementary, Heim Middle, Brooke Point High
•
Stafford Lakes Village: Rocky Run Elementary, Gayle Middle, Colonial Forge High
•
Summit Ridge: Anthony Burns Elementary, Thompson Middle, Brooke Point High
•
Woodstream: Hampton Oaks Elementary, Heim Middle, North Stafford High
5
Figure 2. Expected Residential Development in 2008 to 2009
6
The impact has not yet been determined for several additional subdivisions proposed for
development in the next several years in Stafford County. Some of the larger proposed
subdivisions and general descriptions are included below:
•
Aquia Towne Center: mixed-use development located directly east of U.S. 1 and south of
Washington Drive
•
Colonial Forge: single family homes, townhomes, and apartments located south of
Courthouse Road, east of Ramoth Church Road, and north of Kellogg Mill Road
•
Embrey Mill: mixed-use development located west of I-95, directly north of Courthouse
Road, and east of Winding Creek Road
•
Sherwood Farm: single family homes located north of Kings Highway (SR 3) and
southeast of Forest Lane Road
•
Southgate: single family homes located west of U.S. 1 and Drew Middle School and east
of Truslow Road
•
Stafford Town Station: mixed-use development located directly east of U.S. 1 along
Eskimo Hill Road
•
Staffordshire: single family homes located south of Kellogg Mill Road and west of Abel
Reservoir
The upcoming Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) may also affect housing development and
student membership in Stafford County Public Schools. BRAC is anticipated to bring additional
jobs to Marine Corps Base Quantico, Virginia, and Fort Belvoir, Virginia, by 2011. The local
impact of BRAC is currently being studied by various public agencies and commissions.
7
Student Membership History and Forecast
Average daily membership (ADM) is determined by dividing the aggregate number of days of
membership of all students during a school year by the number of days school is in session. The
March 31 ADM is calculated using data from the first day school is in session through the last
school day in March.
Table 1. 2003-04 to 2008-09 March 31 Average Daily Membership
School Year
ADM
2003-04
24,639
2004-05
25,419
2005-06
25,871
2006-07
26,181
2007-08
26,109
2008-09*
26,355
* 2008-09 ADM is an estimate
Table 2. 2009-10 to 2013-14 Forecasted Average Daily Membership
School Year
ADM
2009-10
26,585
2010-11
26,737
2011-12
26,837
2012-13
27,124
2013-14
27,485
Forecast Methodology
All forecasts are an extrapolation of the past, involve some level of judgment, and inherently
contain a range of error. For these reasons, a consistent methodology along with sound judgment
is important when creating and evaluating the forecast.
The forecasting methodology used to predict the number of students who will attend Stafford
County Public Schools for the next five years is a combination of the cohort progression method,
an average daily membership (ADM) adjustment, and minor housing adjustments. The accuracy
of this forecasting method will be analyzed and used to monitor and refine the process in the
future.
The cohort progression method involves applying an average growth rate over time to the current
year’s membership by grade level cohort. The calculation is based on birth data, which is used
to forecast kindergarten enrollment, and student membership by grade level. An average ratio of
the number of kindergarten students compared to the number of live births six years earlier for
the previous five to seven school years is applied to the number of live births of Stafford County
residents six years prior to the school year being forecasted. Birth data by place of residence is
obtained from the Virginia Department of Health, Division of Health Statistics
(http://www.vdh.state.va.us/healthstats/). The K-12 student membership numbers are obtained
from the Virginia Department of Education (VDOE) Fall Membership (September 30) report
(http://www.pen.k12.va.us/VDOE/Publications/).
The cohort-progression ratio is the number of students in a particular grade divided by the
number of students in the previous grade in the previous school year. In other words, it is the
rate of students in the cohort being “promoted” to the next grade level. This ratio varies by year
and grade level based on families moving in and out of the county, students transferring to
8
different schools within the school division, student retention, and other factors. The cohortprogression ratio incorporates all the different factors affecting student enrollment, retention, and
promotion in one number. Anticipated transfers for the 2009-10 school year are not
incorporated as they cannot be accurately predicted.
To develop the membership forecast, cohort-progression ratios are calculated between every pair
of consecutive grades for the past seven school years. Mathematical models are then applied to
determine the cohort-progression ratio average. That average ratio is applied to the appropriate
grade level to project that particular grade forward in time.
The ADM adjustment involves applying an average ADM/fall membership ratio to the grade
level forecasts from the cohort-progression method. The ADM/fall membership ratio for each
school year is calculated by dividing the average daily membership, obtained from the VDOE
Superintendent’s Annual Report (http://www.pen.k12.va.us/VDOE/Publications/), by the fall
membership for the same school year. A five-year average of ADM/fall membership ratios for
K-12 is calculated and a three-year average of ADM/fall membership ratios for grades K-5, 6-8,
and 9-12 is calculated and adjusted based on the overall five-year average.
Since ADM is reported based on March 31 data, the average daily membership for the current
school year is estimated by applying the five-year and adjusted three-year averages. The average
ADM/fall membership ratio is multiplied by the grade level forecast from the cohort-progression
method to produce the ADM forecast by grade level.
Table 3. 2008-09 to 2013-14 Average Daily Membership by Grade Level
Elementary
2008-09*
2009-10**
2010-11**
2011-12**
2012-13**
2013-14**
K
1,806
1,867
1,931
1,925
2,018
2,058
1
1,833
1,888
1,939
2,014
2,006
2,106
2
1,797
1,881
1,932
1,978
2,051
2,048
3
1,914
1,834
1,923
1,978
2,022
2,098
Middle
2008-09*
2009-10**
2010-11**
2011-12**
2012-13**
2013-14**
6
2,034
2,095
1,993
2,093
2,005
2,104
7
2,085
2,096
2,152
2,043
2,141
2,055
8
2,131
2,132
2,140
2,193
2,085
2,187
Total
6,251
6,323
6,286
6,329
6,231
6,346
** 2009-10 to 2013-14 ADM is a forecast
Note: Totals may reflect variances due to rounding
9
4
1,855
1,954
1,870
1,960
2,016
2,062
5
2,003
1,908
2,006
1,919
2,013
2,071
Total
11,208
11,332
11,600
11,774
12,127
12,442
High
2008-09*
2009-10**
2010-11**
2011-12**
2012-13**
2013-14**
9
2,368
2,343
2,327
2,330
2,390
2,273
10
2,312
2,232
2,209
2,194
2,197
2,253
11
2,171
2,221
2,133
2,114
2,101
2,105
12
2,046
2,135
2,181
2,097
2,079
2,066
Total
8,897
8,931
8,851
8,734
8,766
8,697
** 2009-10 to 2013-14 ADM is a forecast
Fluctuating cohort-progression ratios and ADM/fall membership ratios over several years make
accurate forecasting difficult. ADM forecast accuracy is based on the accuracy of the selected
ADM/fall membership ratio average and the accuracy of the forecast from the cohort-progression
method. If either one, or both, of these factors is out of line the ADM forecasts will also be in
error. Forecasts also become less accurate with each subsequent year being forecasted. To
portray this, the ADM forecast with range shows the ADM forecast for the following five years
with an error range of ±1% the first year and an additional 1% each year thereafter.
Figure 3. 2009-10 to 2013-14 Average Daily Membership Forecast with Range
Average Daily Membership (ADM)
29,000
28,500
28,000
High
27,500
Forecast
27,000
Low
26,500
26,000
25,500
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
School Year
The forecasted ADM by school and grade level (Table 4) is calculated by first applying the
cohort-progression method and ADM/fall membership ratio to each grade level at each school.
The forecast is then refined by applying a housing adjustment based on expected housing
development.
10
Table 4. 2009-10 Forecasted Average Daily Membership by School and Grade Level
Elementary
Schools
2009-10
2008-09*
Total
K
1
2
3
4
5
A Burns
133
140
149
134
133
122
811
791
Conway
141
138
151
135
146
143
854
840
Falmouth
86
100
77
90
80
90
522
490
Ferry Farm
92
92
85
98
95
95
558
568
Garrisonville
99
85
111
95
99
112
601
595
101
94
82
99
115
123
614
616
94
97
109
89
103
81
572
560
Hampton Oaks
114
120
110
114
125
110
692
683
KW Barrett
116
114
131
111
118
113
704
682
M Brent
122
110
111
118
135
146
742
753
Moncure
109
119
110
116
114
95
662
634
Park Ridge
106
120
117
109
104
87
644
649
97
99
86
89
95
125
591
568
140
155
130
151
150
124
850
849
97
85
104
80
109
113
588
588
Winding Creek
114
108
111
109
125
126
692
703
Widewater
104
115
105
96
109
104
635
640
1,867
1,888
1,881
1,834
1,954
1,908
11,332
11,208
6
7
8
Drew
149
163
133
445
428
Dixon-Smith
300
326
305
931
930
Gayle
318
265
303
887
846
Heim
246
244
271
761
752
Poole
297
330
295
921
912
Stafford
180
155
180
516
480
Thompson
356
339
350
1,045
1,054
Wright
248
274
295
817
849
2,095
2,096
2,132
6,323
6,251
Grafton Village
Hartwood
Rockhill
Rocky Run
Stafford
Grade Level Total
Middle
Schools
Grade Level Total
11
2009-10
2008-09*
Total
High
Schools
2009-10
2008-09*
Total
9
10
11
12
Brooke Point
418
394
403
420
1,634
1,655
Colonial Forge
504
497
467
472
1,940
1,908
Mountain View
434
417
469
464
1,785
1,845
North Stafford
459
437
414
370
1,681
1,665
Stafford
527
487
468
409
1,891
1,824
2,343
2,232
2,221
2,135
8,931
8,897
Grade Level Total
Principals are asked to review their respective forecasts and to share any concerns noted with the
planning staff.
12
Capacity
Each school building has a design capacity based on architectural standards. The actual
(program) capacity of any school facility will typically deviate in some degree from this design
capacity for any particular school year due to programmatic and other current or proposed
utilization factors.
Table 5. 2009-10 School Design Capacity
Elementary
Schools
A Burns
Conway
Falmouth
Ferry Farm
Garrisonville
Grafton Village
Hartwood
Hampton Oaks
KW Barrett
M Brent
Moncure
Park Ridge
Rockhill
Rocky Run
Stafford
Winding Creek
Widewater
Elementary Total
Design
Capacity
950
950
690
640
712
814
611
950
950
950
772
769
769
950
752
900
875
14,004
2009-10
ADM*
811
854
522
558
601
614
572
692
704
742
662
644
591
850
588
692
635
11,332
Middle Schools
Drew
Dixon-Smith
Gayle
Heim
Poole
Stafford
Thompson
Wright
Middle Total
High Schools
Brooke Point
Colonial Forge
Mountain View
North Stafford
Stafford
High Total
Design
Capacity
800
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
920
8,320
2009-10
ADM*
445
931
887
761
921
516
1,045
817
6,323
Design
Capacity
2009-10
ADM*
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,925
1,800
9,125
1,634
1,940
1,785
1,681
1,891
8,931
* 2009-10 ADM is a forecast
Special school division programming, like specific classes for students with disabilities, may
lower the actual capacity of schools, as these programs often utilize classrooms that are
categorized as general education in design capacity calculations. As the number of school
division special programs vary among schools, their impact on capacity will also vary among
schools and school years with changes to the number and/or locations of these programs.
School facilities may also exceed design capacity, especially at middle and high school levels, by
increasing class sizes, increasing classroom use during planning periods, and utilizing noninstructional spaces (cafeteria, auditorium, etc.) for instructional purposes. Although these
practices may effectively exceed the design capacity of a school, core facilities (libraries,
hallways, cafeterias, restrooms, etc.) are only designed to serve at the design capacity level.
Therefore, it is important to weigh the impact that exceeding design capacity may have when
assessing a school’s “maximum” possible capacity.
13
School Year 2009-10 Changes
School Attendance Area Boundaries
The school attendance area boundaries will be adjusted for several schools in the 2009-10 school
year to increase transportation efficiency and create more contiguous attendance zones. The
following streets will change base schools as indicated:
Table 6. 2009-10 Base Elementary School Attendance Area Changes
Street
2008-09 Elementary
2009-10 Elementary
Anthony Burns
Stafford
River Road
Conway
Falmouth
Kings Highway (1–199 odd)
White Oak Road (428– 498 even)
White Oak Road (500-548 even)
Conway
Ferry Farm
Eskimo Hill Road (739-999 odd)
Eskimo Hill Road (740-998 even)
Falmouth
Conway
Bluefield Lane
Falmouth
Hartwood
Ferry Farm
Grafton Village
White Oak Road (295-345 odd)
Grafton Village
Conway
Davis Road
First Street
Octagon Trail
Sonny Lane
Grafton Village
Ferry Farm
Garrisonville Road (2-188 even)
Mine Road (1-39 odd)
Mine Road (2-40 even)
Hampton Oaks
Moncure
Garrisonville Road (173-267 odd)
Moncure Lane
Kate
Waller Barrett
Moncure
Club Drive
Comfort Lane
Hospital Center Boulevard
Jefferson Davis Highway (1544–2112 even)
Johnsons Pride Lane
Jumping Branch Road
Old Potomac Church Road
Peake Lane
Fleetwood Farm Lane
14
Street
2008-09 Elementary
2009-10 Elementary
Margaret Brent
Falmouth
Moncure
Widewater
Plantation Drive (300-700 even)
Plantation Drive (301-699 odd)
Rocky Run
Hartwood
Cambridge Street (91-139 odd)
King Street (200-304 even)
King Street (201-305 odd)
Rocky Run
Falmouth
Allison Drive
Bear Mountain Lane
Enon Road (220-466 even)
Enon Road (221-465 odd)
Hulls Chapel Road
Lakebreeze Way
Moorwood Drive
Pebblebrook Drive
Pine View Drive
Ravenwood Drive
Stacy Lane
Stones Mill Lane
Wyatt Lane
Barley Mill Court
Coachman Circle
Jefferson Davis Highway (2917-3159 odd)
Jefferson Davis Highway (2918-3158 even)
Palisades Drive
Sutton Court
Table 7. 2009-10 Base Middle School Attendance Area Changes
Street
2008-09 Middle
2009-10 Middle
Dixon-Smith
Drew
Harwood Lane
Poplar Road (126-364 even)
Drew
Gayle
Moncure Lane
Poole
Heim
American Legion Road
Stafford
Thompson
Concord Drive
Fox Street
Grapevine Lane
Halstead Drive
Kincaid LN
Poplar Road (1800-2710 even)
Mountain View Road (2952-3060 even)
Mountain View Road (2402-2598 even)
Wright
Thompson
Fleetwood Lane
October Lane
River Road
15
Table 8. 2009-10 Base High School Attendance Area Changes
Street
2008-09 High
2009-10 High
Allison Drive
Bear Mountain Lane
Enon Road (220-466 even)
Enon Road (221-465 odd)
Green Tree Road
Hulls Chapel Road
Lakebreeze Way
Moorwood Drive
Pebblebrook Drive
Ravenwood Drive
Stacy Lane
Stones Mill Lane
Warrenton Road (402-948 even)
Warrenton Road (815-949 odd)
Wyatt Lane
Colonial Forge
Stafford
Blake Meadow Lane
Fleet Road
Plantation Drive (300-700 even)
Plantation Drive (301-699 odd)
Stafford
Colonial Forge
16
Figure 4. 2009-10 Elementary School Attendance Area Map
Quantico, MCB
Quantico, MCB
k
k
KWBES
kkRES
GES
WES
k
MES
k
k
PRES
k
MBES
HOES
k
k
WCES
ABES
k
SES
k
HES
k
RRES
k
FES
k
CES
k
GVES
k
Elementary School Attendance Area
Anthony Burns
Margaret Brent
Conway
Moncure
Falmouth
Park Ridge
Ferry Farm
Rockhill
Garrisonville
Rocky Run
Grafton Village
Stafford
Hampton Oaks
Widewater
Hartwood
Winding Creek
FFES
Kate Waller Barrett
17
Figure 5. 2009-10 Middle School Attendance Area Map
Quantico, MCB
Quantico, MCB
k
HMS
k
WMS
k
k
TMS
PMS
k
SMS
k
GMS
k
DMS
k
DSMS
Middle School Attendance Area
Dixon-Smith
Drew
Gayle
Heim
Poole
Stafford
Thompson
Wright
18
Figure 6. 2009-10 High School Attendance Area Map
Quantico, MCB
Quantico, MCB
l
l
NSHS
MVHS
l
CFHS
l
BPHS
l
SHS
High School Attendance Area
Brooke Point
Colonial Forge
Mountain View
North Stafford
Stafford
19
Feeder Patterns
There will be 44 elementary/middle/high school feeder pattern combinations in the 2009-10
school year, as in 2008-09. Each middle and high school receives students from three to five
elementary or middle schools, respectively (Tables 9-12).
Table 9. 2009-10 Elementary to Middle
School Feeder Patterns by Elementary School
Table 10. 2009-10 Elementary to Middle
School Feeder Patterns by Middle School
Elementary School
Middle School
Middle School
Elementary School
A Burns ES
Stafford MS
Thompson MS
Dixon-Smith MS
Drew MS
Drew MS
Gayle MS
Dixon-Smith MS
Thompson MS
Wright MS
Dixon-Smith MS
Heim MS
Poole MS
Gayle MS
Poole MS
Wright MS
Drew MS
Gayle MS
Thompson MS
Wright MS
Heim MS
Poole MS
Poole MS
Thompson MS
Wright MS
Drew MS
Gayle MS
Stafford MS
Heim MS
Poole MS
Stafford MS
Thompson MS
Dixon-Smith MS
Conway ES
Grafton Village ES
Ferry Farm ES
Conway ES
Falmouth ES
M Brent ES
Rocky Run ES
Falmouth ES
Hartwood ES
M Brent ES
Rocky Run ES
Hampton Oaks ES
Moncure ES
Widewater ES
Hampton Oaks ES
KW Barrett ES
Moncure ES
Park Ridge ES
Winding Creek ES
A Burns ES
Garrisonville ES
M Brent ES
Park Ridge ES
Winding Creek ES
A Burns ES
Stafford ES
Winding Creek ES
Garrisonville ES
KW Barrett ES
M Brent ES
Rockhill ES
Conway ES
Falmouth ES
Ferry Farm ES
Garrisonville ES
Grafton Village ES
Hampton Oaks ES
Hartwood ES
KW Barrett ES
M Brent ES
Moncure ES
Park Ridge ES
Rockhill ES
Rocky Run ES
Stafford ES
Widewater ES
Winding Creek ES
Drew MS
Gayle MS
Heim MS
Poole MS
Thompson MS
Stafford MS
Wright MS
20
Table 11. 2009-10 Middle to High School
Feeder Patterns by Middle School
Table 12. 2009-10 Middle to High School
Feeder Patterns by High School
Middle School
High School
High School
Middle School
Dixon-Smith MS
Drew MS
Stafford HS
Brooke Point HS
Colonial Forge HS
Stafford HS
Colonial Forge HS
Mountain View HS
Stafford HS
Brooke Point HS
North Stafford HS
Colonial Forge HS
North Stafford HS
Brooke Point HS
Colonial Forge HS
Mountain View HS
North Stafford HS
Brooke Point HS
Colonial Forge HS
Mountain View HS
North Stafford HS
Brooke Point HS
Drew MS
Heim MS
Stafford MS
Thompson MS
Drew MS
Gayle MS
Poole MS
Thompson MS
Stafford MS
Gayle MS
Thompson MS
Wright MS
Heim MS
Poole MS
Thompson MS
Wright MS
Dixon-Smith MS
Drew MS
Gayle MS
Gayle MS
Heim MS
Poole MS
Thompson MS
Stafford MS
Wright MS
Colonial Forge HS
Mountain View HS
North Stafford HS
Stafford HS
Special Education Program Placements
Each school currently includes one or more special education programs that require dedicated
instructional space. The table on the following page shows the current programs at each school
and the proposed programs for the 2009-10 school year (Table 13).
21
Table 13. Special Education Programs by School
Elementary Schools
2008-09 Existing Programs
2009-10 Proposed Programs
A Burns
Autism
Autism (2)
Conway
Autism (2)
Preschool
Autism (2)
Preschool
Falmouth
Learning Support II (2)
Ferry Farm
Learning Support I
Learning Support I
Garrisonville
Autism
Preschool
Autism
Preschool
Grafton Village
Emotional Disability
Learning Support I
Preschool
Learning Support I
Preschool
Hartwood
Hampton Oaks
KW Barrett
Autism (2)
Learning Support I (2)
Autism (2)
M Brent
Multiple Disabilities (2)
Multiple Disabilities (2)
Moncure
Preschool
Preschool
Park Ridge
Autism
Preschool
Autism
Preschool
Rockhill
Hearing Impaired/Deaf
Stafford
Autism
Preschool Autism
Autism
Preschool Autism
Winding Creek
Autism (2)
Preschool
Autism (2)
Preschool
Widewater
Preschool
Preschool
Rocky Run
22
Middle Schools
Drew
Multiple Disabilities
Dixon-Smith
Autism
Autism
Learning Support I
Gayle
Learning Support I
Learning Support I
Heim
Learning Support I
Learning Support I
Poole
Autism
Learning Support II
Autism
Learning Support II
Stafford
Learning Support II
Learning Support II
Thompson
Autism
Autism
Wright
Learning Support I
Learning Support I
High Schools
Brooke Point
Autism (2)
Learning Support I
Autism (1)
Learning Support I
Colonial Forge
Learning Support I
Learning Support II
Learning Support I
Learning Support II
Mountain View
Autism
Learning Support I
Autism
Learning Support I
North Stafford
Learning Support I
Learning Support II
Autism
Learning Support I
Learning Support II
Stafford
Learning Support I
Learning Support II
Autism
Learning Support I
Learning Support II
Multiple Disabilities (possible
elimination)
23

Student Accommodation Plan - Stafford County Public Schools

Transcription

Similar documents

North Hartley Green Farmhouse

TG Default Prevention Training Program

Ghost Trail - Stafford Borough Council

492 Spring 2016

Brochure - Morgan Properties

issue 13, april 2012 - Stafford High School

May/June - Grafton Village Elementary School

Summer Fishtrap 2014 brochure

Stafford Tourism brochure 2013.indd

Stone Town Trail