El Nino Fear is still Jouncing! - The Solvent Extractors` Association of

El Nino Fear is still Jouncing!
What Could be the
Impact on Indian Crops
By
Dr. B. V. Mehta
Executive Director
The Solvent Extractors
Extractors’ Association of India
at
Gl b il India
Globoil
I di 2014,
2014 27th Sept.,2014
S t 2014
1
Monsoon has withdrawn
How do we see overall
I
Impact
t on Indian
I di Crops
C
2
2014: Indian Monsoon Performance & IMD Outlook
•
•
•
Overall,
ll 72% area off the
h country received
d
normal rainfall and remaining 28% area
received deficient/scanty rainfall as per IMD.
Overall Monsoon 88% of LPA so far Vs 93% of
LPA as predicted by IMD
NW India most severely hit by Poor Monsoon,
followed by South India & Central India.
3
How other Summer Crops Performed this year
•
•
•
Due to delayed/deficient rainfall, area coverage under most of the
crops during current kharif season has declined.
Lower acreage coupled with poor productivity due to erratic rainfall &
dry spells over several parts of country; Production of most of the
crops is expected to be lower than their record production levels of
LY.
Total Summer
S
f
food
grain production is likely to be down by -7%
% YOY
O
4
Monsoon Distribution Tells Us a Different Story!
2014: June 1 – July 15
% Normal Rains
•
•
•
•
2014: July 15 – Sept 22
% Normal Rains
Rainfall distribution remains a key to
understand
d
d its
i impact
i
on crops.
June-Mid July rains were deficit across
most of India.
H
However,
subsequent
b
t near Normal
N
l rains
i
since mid July ensured very good crop
condition across CW Indian oilseed crop
regions.
g
NW India facing poor rains, however
assured irrigation helps in this crop belt.
5
How Indian Summer Oilseeds Performed?
•
•
•
Due to delayed Monsoon Beans planting was also delayed by 25 days from LY
and
d farmers
f
opted
t d for
f more short
h t duration
d ti varieties
i ti
Despite delayed sowing, current crop condition to be very good to excellent
compared to LY (basis sufficient rains at timely intervals).
However Soy Production scenario is not very optimistic as
– Lower yield potential of short duration varieties by 20%
– Poor initial germination basis drought followed by heavy rains in some parts
– Crop
C
d
damage iin parts
t d
due tto patchy
t h excess rainfall
i f ll
6
How Indian Summer Oilseeds Performed?
Major Soy
Belt
Major
j
Gnut Belt
•
•
•
Basis
B
i late
l t monsoon onset,
t Soy
S acreage down
d
b by
10% YoY while Gnut acreage down by -14% YoY.
However, subsequent good rains over IND
Soy/Gnut regions at timely intervals (compared to
LY where excess rains throughout the season
resulted in very poor yields).
y Prod likelyy to be 10.4 mmt & IND
IND 14/15 Soy
Summer Gnut Prod at 3.8 mmt (against COOIT’s
LY est. of 10.2 mmt & 4.7 mmt respectively).
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So… What about 14/15 winter crops?
Is El Niño still relevant?
• Yes & No!!!
• Yes… if El Niño occurs in OND as per current forecast & limits
winter rains across major rapeseed belt of NW India (already facing
dryness)
• No… if El Niño remains weak in its severity & not able to shadow
its effects on winter rains
rains.
• All in all; crucial to watch post monsoon & winter rains
across NW India.
8
Current El Niño Status
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
El Nino Southern Oscillation(ENSO) - Neutral Conditions Continue.
Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue
across
most of the Pacific Ocean.
The chance of El Niño is at 60-65% during the Northern Hemisphere
fall/winter.
ONI Index 3.4 at 0.0°C in JJA but again likely to move towards 0.5°C in
OND.
Most models favour El Niño (greater than or equal to +0.5) to develop
during October-December 2014 and persist through Northern
Hemisphere
p
winter 2014-15.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) currently in neutral range & is likely to
continue neutral into 14 Q4/ 15 Q1 after being negative since mid-June.
9
INDIA: El Niño VS Indian Winter crops
% Normal Rains: Aug-Sept
2014
•
Rapeseed ROI seems better than Wheat since July
Historically, North Indian Winter crops exhibit no serious impact in El Niño
years.
Reason... Assured irrigation facilities.
•
•
•
However, in case of delayed Monsoon/drought years; Rapeseed is seen as
gaining some acreage from Wheat (Approx. 2% YoY).
Current ROI is also favouring Rape over Wheat; although need to see late
S
Sept-early
l Oct
O rains
i to predict
di the
h actuall acreage switch
i h
At present, soil moisture levels is good for winter crop planting basis good
Aug/Sept Rains, coupled with Good water reservoir levels.
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Indian Grain & Oilseeds Winter crops
What's in favor & What’s Not!
Positive
•
•
•
•
Water reservoir levels in good shape YoY & last 10 years average over
majority of crop regions
Good Soil Moisture across NW India basis good Aug & Early Sept Rains
Impro ement in artificial irrigation facilities YoY
Improvement
Improved Seed Replacement Ratio
Negative
g
•
•
Frost/Hailstorm risk to Rapeseed at flowering to Pod Formation Stage
Increasing Occurrence of Yellow Rust in Wheat YoY across Haryana & Punjab
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Dr. B. V. Mehta
Executive Director
The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India
A Premier Association of Vegetable Oil Industry & Trade in India
ISO 9001:2008 Organisation
142, Jolly Maker Chambers No. II, 14th Floor, 225, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021
Tel: (+91-22) 2202 1475. 2282 2979, Fax.: (+91-22) 2202 1692
Email: solvent@mtnl.net.in , Website:www.seaofindia.com
File : India Moonsoon – El Nino Risk / Word/Presentations , Globoil 2014 – 27.9.2014
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