April - What Really Wins Money

Transcription

April 2012 Volume 8 Issue 04
What Really Wins Money
***** An Independent Review of Tipsters and Betting Systems *****
Hi, and welcome to April’s What Really Wins
Money. As you can probably guess I did not place a
hefty sum on the Grand National winner, so I suppose it’s back to the keyboard.
We start this month with an update on the home
grown betting systems, and a warning that high risk
staking can bring good profits, but can also wipe out
your betting bank short term.
Next, we look at how you never need to back an
odds-on shot again, and yes, it looks like you could
make a nice profit too. Hint: 2nd favourites are key.
It sounds like a dream come true for football
punters, but it looks as if you could profit before a
football is kicked in anger. Scalp trading is the key
– that and a certain Shirley!
In-play betting markets are rife now, and it’s about
time you maximised your returns. Why not delay
your entry into the live betting markets and look for
better value? It’s not as difficult as you think.
Speaking of delayed entry, waiting a week for
these flat horses to run could have netted you 846
points profit in the last 10 years. The Statman shows
it’s worth the wait.
And, this month The Patriarch is going old skool
with a look at perms and the Placepot.
PS: Take a look at the box bottom right for an
exclusive download of the latest WRWM reports for
our subscribers...
Inside this issue:
Betting Strategies
Never Back Odds-on Ever Again!! .......................2
Football Trading
How to Profit Before a Ball is Kicked Using PreMatch Training ........................................................4
Sports Trading Strategy
Delay Your Entry for Increased Returns ................7
The Statman Presents
Why Fitness Counts This Early in
This Flat Season .......................................................8
The PATRIARCH Presents
Plundering the Placepot ......................................10
Home-Grown
Systems Updates
I
hope, by focussing on my home-grown systems
and updating monthly, to show you how an idea
progresses throughout the year, and whether it
weathers the storm of both flat and jumps codes. So
let’s get started...
NAPS 12/13
This system seeks to find which horse has been
chosen by 12 or 13 writers in the Selection Box at
each race meeting. The accompanying video will
refresh your memory as regards all of these systems:
www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk/resourcepage
From 7th November to 18th April, there have
been 126 qualifiers, a 76% strike rate and a 13-point
level stakes profit. I am a little reticent about putting
forward some higher risk staking plans, largely due
to the short odds that this little system produces.
An anomalous run and short odds can be disasturous. So this simple system is ticking along and
worth continuing with.
Price Gapper Lays
I am now recording these month by month. Using
5% stake and the Lay % Up Down aggressive staking plan from www.stakingmachine.com, a profit of
£11,000+ was produced for March. All very well,
but are you comfortable staking £311 per lay? I
suppose you will eventually be working with Other
Your exclusive WRWM reports,
to access them go to:
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People’s Money. A more realistic % stake would be
2%, which produced a March profit of £4,700.
April has seen too many winners, and, to 2%
stakes and the Lay % Up Down staking plan, we
had to ride an initial loss of -£873 before a profit
(at the time of writing) of £168. This epitomises
what I said in March as regards this kind of staking.
It’s either a blow out or a great profit depending on
when you began using it – a run of 22 losses and
only six winners in the last three days has really
turned this around.
Evidently it is worth continuing with, using a
fixed liability profit of 21 points. If we consider that
we started the aggressive Director’s staking plan
with a fixed liability stake of £10, then its performance to date, minus the recent blip, is impressive.
The more gentler Lay Hi Pro 86 would be standing on a £70 loss for this month, and a £1,100 profit
for March. Stakes are greatly reduced and the risk
of the Lay % Up Down staking plan is neutralised at
the expense of smaller profits.
Those hating the roller coaster ride which inevitably comes when you are trying to risk more to make
more, can stick with fixed liability laying. It’s safe,
and profitable, but a very slow burner.
Lay the fav last race of the day
I introduced you to this “urban myth” last month.
So can we realistically profit?
Bottom line: The profit accrues still. That said,
you have been alerted this month to the vagaries of
risky staking plans in the pursuit of quicker profits. Note the £870 loss for the Price Gapper lays
in April, before a superb run of horses losing their
races turned this into a £160 current profit. There
are always less aggressive staking plans, which put
less at risk but for a lower return. Do take a look
at the video accompanying this article for a more
detailed look at the performances. Note that I will
be updating you on the HTB (hard to beat) lay idea
from last month’s newsletter, in May’s WRWM.
One hundred and sixty one bets to date, a 73%
strike rate, and – using fixed liability – a level stakes
profit of 30 points has accrued. I think the originators of this idea thought it would work, as favourites
in the last race of the day can attract “desperation
stakes” from hapless punters, thus theoretically
pushing the price of the favourite down and allowing us to lay at decent odds.
I will take this through level stakes laying (to win
a specific amount, rather than with fixed liability to
lose a specific amount should the horse win) to see
if it is viable long term.
Betting Strategies
Lay novice hurdle 3rd favourites
Never Back Odds-on
Ever Again!!
I introduced you to this idea in March, and an
argument for a more aggressive staking plan to
complement the high strike rate of this lay system.
So how has it progressed?
N
ow that sounds like a good idea! Imagine if we
could profit long term while never needing to
back any odds-on shots at all.
This idea has taken a backward step in the intervening month to date, with the aggressive “Director’s” staking plan:
Well, it is possible, and the simple solution seems
to be to concentrate on 2nd favourites.
There’ll never be an odds-on shot when you’re
It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot be held
responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on this understanding. ISSN: 1741 9018
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811 5700 64 © Copyright What Really Wins Money 2012
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For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to www.whatbizopp.com
backing 2nd favourites.
1 point £10). Race 1-1 point , Race 2 – 1 point,
Race 3 – 1 point, Race 4 – 2 points, Race 5 – 2
points, Race 6 – 2 points.
So, how can we back 2nd favourites in such a way
that we can profit long term?
Your maximum loss on a single day is 9 points
if none of the 2nd favourites win. There is another
staking plan for this idea, which I will report back
to you on.
I think I have the solution and it came courtesy
of a reader who forwarded me this idea, albeit a
system without a title.
The idea was to back 2nd favourites at the meeting which had the 2nd highest prize money, on a
‘Stop at a Winner’ basis (SAW) using a specific
staking plan.
Finding the 2nd favourite...
As you can appreciate, this is a live market betting
system, and we want to avoid the vagaries of cofavourites and so forth, but there is nothing stopping
you placing the bet with the bookmakers.
And it has been working since my records began
on 25th October 2011. A profit of £439 to £10
stakes is a good return for the period.
“Back 2nd favourites Ffos Las 1st 6 races 1-11-2-2-2 points where 1 point is £10 STOP AT A
WINNER.”
So here’s what you do.
The first thing to look for is the race meeting with
the 2nd highest prize money for the day.
A little too verbose I think. I am sure your betting
manager can slimline the wording!
The quickest way to find this information is to
look in the top left-hand corner of page 2 of the
Racing Post, the newspaper version or online version (which I show below).
Online, a visit to www.sportinglife.com, Racing,
Live Shows will show you the 2nd favourite
(simply the horse with the 2nd lowest odds). Alternatively the Race Cards at www.racingpost.com
will show you the odds of the race.
You must wait until race time and can place a
stake independently if you wish, e.g. Race 1, we
would back the 2nd favourite for 1 point. If he wins,
we stop for the day. If he loses, we back the 2nd
favourite in Race 2 for 1 point, and so on for six
races.
Potential pitfalls...
There will occasionally be races where there are
multiple 1st and/or 2nd favourites. On a couple of
occasions there have been three 1st co-favourites.
Of course, this means in real terms that the 2nd
favourite is the 4th horse in the race, and he has a
lesser chance of winning the race. I have personally
left these races alone. This happens rarely though.
For the purposes of this exercise, ignore all Irish
or other venues (Cork/Longchamp) and focus on the
UK. Pontefract has £44K total prize money. Ffos
Las and Windsor both have £28K prize money and
are the meetings with the 2nd highest prize money.
I usually prefer a single meeting, but have been
keeping records of days where we have two qualifying meetings, and so far both meetings have produced a profit. Naturally you are increasing your
risk by focussing on two meetings, but it seems, so
far, that this has not damaged profits.
What do we do when there are multiple 2nd
favourites in a qualifying race? I have simply
halved my stakes and backed both 2nd favourites.
If successful it does reduce our profit but has not
adversely affected long-term profitability.
The meetings we will focus on in our example
therefore will be Ffos Las and Windsor.
What if a racecourse abandons the meeting
after 2/3 races? This happened on the 12th April
at Folkestone, where the meeting was abandoned
after three races. If following the racing independently, you would have found a winner in the 1st
race and stopped for the day. If you had placed a
The idea is to back 2nd favourites at these venues
on a Stop at a Winner basis, using the following
staking plan. 1-1-1-2-2-2 where 1 is 1 point (and for
the purposes of my record-keeping I have assigned
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bet with your bookmaker, I am sure it would have
been voided as it would not have come to a natural
conclusion.
And, it must involve Shirley!
All is revealed at www.prematchtrading.com, a
service I have been monitoring during this football season. And Shirley? Well, she is a “football
markets model based on probability theory and
statistics”. Or in other words, Shirley looks at prices
in liquid betting markets (such as bookmaker and
spreadbetting markets) and calculates relevant
prices in secondary markets, allowing Betfair users
to spot “apparent” mispriced betting markets and
profit on them before the match has kicked off.
Bottom line
This method of backing 2nd favourites has profited well since October 2011. I will continue to
monitor and also take it through another graduated
staking plan which might eke out more profit. The
17th and 18th April, alas, saw losing days where we
lost 18 points in total, which has taken a gloss off
the profit figure.
Do take a look at http://tinyurl.com/cth3qap if this
concept is new to you.
On some 11 occasions, a winning 2nd favourite
has come in the seventh race of the day. Our staking plan currently only goes up to six races, and if
the 2nd favourite has not won in that time, the day
is declared a losing day. So I will tinker with staking to include seventh races too as this could impact
very positively on results. Where a losing day is
currently a nine-point deficit, the inclusion of a seventh race would have reduced this deficit considerably on 11 occasions, and increased our final profits.
It does sound a little complicated at first, and that
was an initial concern of mine. The guys behind
www.prematchtrading.com did not, initially, simplify the process, but have since focussed on this
area with a whole raft of videos and follow-up
emails.
So what’s involved?
Well, Shirley seeks to flag up betting markets at
Betfair which are “out of sync” with other betting
markets. The idea is that Betfair’s independent betting markets will likely fall in line with these other
independent betting markets that Shirley monitors
(be they bookmaker or spread betting markets).
The accompanying video takes you through the
idea with visuals, so do take a look:
This is a strategy with distinct promise, and I’ll
continue to monitor and refine it until hopefully we
have a good long-term profit maker. As you can see,
2nd favourites can return a good profit because we
will never be backing odds-on shots again!
And the betting markets that are used are the
Over/Under 1.5 to 4.5 Goals markets, the Correct
Scores markets, Next Goal markets, Half-time and
Half-time Correct Score markets.
Football Trading
And the idea is to back or lay in these markets, as
appropriate, an hour or so before kick-off, and wait
for the market to hopefully come into alignment
with other independent betting markets.
How to Profit Before
a Ball is Kicked Using
Pre-Match Training
The goal is the green screen.
And guaranteed risk free bets before kick off such
as these (see fig 1).
T
hat’s the ideal situation for you footy lovers,
isn’t it? Make a nice profit before a football
match has even kicked off!
Potential pitfalls?
I think that the whole concept will take a while
to be mastered by newcomers to trading on Betfair.
Terms such as “Draw Inflation” may be off-putting
to the novice.
Impossible, right?
Wrong! It is entirely possible.
It’s called Pre-match Trading.
Remember too, that what www.prematchtrading.com are seeking to do is to “scalp” the betting
markets. Scalping is effectively short-term trading,
which is seen as low risk and looks to profit from
So there is our qualifier for profiting before a
match kicks off: it must involve trading. And trading and Betfair go together.
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Fig 1
Fig 2
Fig 3
Fig 4
5
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small price movements. Do take a look at this website for a good introduction to the concept of scalping. http://tinyurl.com/d5rw9x4
Bottom line
For those interested in scalp trading the football
markets, then www.prematchtrading.com and www.
drawinflation.com are a superb starting point. I
would personally advise those wishing to join that
they gain a foundation of knowledge independently
first.
One concern with scalping, which has admittedly
been addressed at Prematch Trading, is that the
reward to risk ratio is small. Relatively big stakes
are required to generate small profits when scalp
trading.
Read up about scalp trading and Betfair, get to
know the trading software (free software such as
geekstoy is a must for scalp traders, or paid for
software such as Fairbot from www.binteko.com is
perfect).
On the upside
The team behind www.prematchtrading.com
know what they’re talking about. And with a chatroom facility, this enables discussion in real time on
scalping opportunities in liquid football betting markets on Betfair. I have also seen excellent webinars
which all seek to increase our knowledge base.
Scalp trading and “ladder interfaces” go hand in
hand. In fig 4 on the previous page there’s a ladder
interface for the Leicester v West Ham match as I
write.
The email alerts are excellent too. Here’s a breakdown of a very recent one:
The traditional betting market is below. As you
can see, the format is different. The lay prices are in
blue and the back prices in red (because I suppose it
is the layers who are providing the prices for backers, and vice versa). I would advise mastering the
ladder interface at www.geekstoy.com or by using
Fairbot featured here, before getting involved in
scalp trading.
Shirley highlighted the fact that the 2-0 scoreline
in this match was too high. So, 2-0 was backed
at odds of 18 for £100. In the Betfair screenshot,
you’ll see that a lay bet was placed at odds of 17.5
for £100 liability, and when matched, it produced a
£50 guaranteed profit on 2-0 and break even on all
other scorelines.
This epitomises what Prematch trading seek to do.
They are not looking for a massive odds swing. 18
to 17.5 is all that is required to scalp trade successfully. (See figs 2 and 3 on the previous page.)
There is an accompanying website too called
www.drawinflation.com which seeks to scalp trade
in the match odds market only. The advantage? You
are pretty much guaranteed liquidity in the match
odds markets for all major leagues and competitions. They currently offer a free week’s trial which,
I’d suggest, you start on a Saturday.
Read the free content at www.prematchtradingcom
and www.drawinflation.com and watch as many free
videos as you can before committing funds.
Also ask yourself if you have the mentality for
scalp trading. It is, by its very nature, a low risk
method of trading and so offers little in the way of
an adrenaline rush! Look at the 2-0 example earlier.
A price move from 18 to 17.5 is adequate to produce a free bet effectively on 2-0 (as an aside there
is an option to spread the profit on all outcomes of
course, and profit regardless of the score).
The cost of joining www.drawinflation.com is as
follows:
• One month – £29
• Three months – £75
• Six months - £126
And for joining www.prematchtrading.com the
cost is:
• Two weeks – £20
• One month – £39
• Three months – £106
• Six months – £191
6
All in all, I think the guys at
www.prematchtrading.com and www.drawinflation.
com have produced two excellent scalp trading
products for the low risk trader. With the Euros
on our doorstep and Betfair increasing in liquidity
daily, it is an ideal time to become a scalp trader and
profit before a match has kicked off!
So, while 1.04 is unbackable, 1.32 and 1.91 (£100
each) are backable for me given the tournament and
given the player.
Sports Trading Strategy
Delay Your Entry for
Increased Returns
I
In a delayed entry bet, you can keep the bet going
to finality, or as we are in-play, you have the trader’s option.
want to introduce you to a concept which, as a
natural by-product, will produce value bets.
I call it “delayed entry”. it’s a close relative of
enhanced trading, and here’s what you do...
You, erm, delay your entry into any live in-play
betting market in which you have considered placing a bet.
In the next match, 1.06 Djokovic was backable at
1.13 against Haase (yes, poor odds but really this is
a doubling of the odds which occurred after about
10 minutes into the match).
Why?
Because, on numerous occasions, the odds at
which you could have backed your fancy pre match
increase dramatically during the match, even in the
early parts of the match.
Delayed entry can be used in ANY in-play market,
preferably at Betfair (as trading then becomes an
option).
A couple of examples from the tennis spring
to mind. Novak Djokovic was recently playing
Alexandr Dolgopolov. Novak lost the first set 6-2
– unthinkable for the World Number 1 at Monte
Carlo.
Barcelona recently played an away match against
Zaragoza. I delayed my entry here thinking I might
get better odds with a concerted period of 0-0.
But no, Zaragoza decided to score. 1.14 Barcelona
were available to back at 1.96 and during the mid
period of the first half.
Backable at 1.04 pre match, you could have
backed Djokovic at 1.32 mid first set, and 1.94 after
he lost the first set. Now a 1.04 shot is not going
to lose that often, believe me! And you are getting
nearly evens for a 1/25 on shot! Any takers? No?
Okay, then I will! Look at the graph below!
Steps to success
Familiarise yourself with in-play betting markets
on Betfair for a specific day.
Djokovic began the match at the bottom left side
of the graph at odds of 1.04. After the first set, he hit
a high of 2 (evens). And when the screenshot was
taken, the odds had reduced to 1.28.
The In-play planner at Betfair is ideally suited.
Now keep an eye out for the crème de la crème in
their particular sporting arenas. We’re talking your
Djokovics and Nadals, especially on clay (Andy
Murray I am less than convinced with, the sulky
Scot can throw the odd tantrum), Barcelona and
Real Madrid in Spain, Manchester United... I hope
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you get the idea.
creativity. You could also use the concept for horse
racing.
Make sure they are very well fancied in the betting market. As you have seen above, Djokovic was
backable at 1.04 and 1.06, Barcelona recently at
1.14.
The Statman Presents
Why Fitness Counts
This Early in This
Flat Season
Make sure you actually fancy the team/player.
And make a note of times, and any facilities to
enable you to monitor the price/score.
And delay entry. If you can get to back these
shorties at nearly evens, you are manufacturing
what I can only describe as value bets!
A
s the flat season gets going in earnest, us punters can be confused with all the changes from
one season to another. Those who blindly followed
Silvestre De Sousa or Paul Hanagan now find
themselves backing horses trained by Godolphin
or owned by Sheik Hamdan Al Maktoum since the
new riding arrangements, and who knows what
those changes will do for the strike rates or odds,
and what effect their losses will be to the likes of
Mark Johnston and Richard Fahey? My point is that
trainer/jockey combinations are suddenly a bit of a
mess and for now we need to tread carefully on that
score and look elsewhere for a more logical way of
finding a few extra winners.
This need not end with ultra shorties. Bayern
Munich recently were playing away at Werder
Bremen. Bremen scored first, and Bayern did not
score until the 75th and 90th minutes. This was a
must win for Bayern, and they obliged eventually:
Follow this rule
The longer the delay, the better the price in-play.
The longer you wait to back a team/player you
fancy, and as long as the match is in play, the better
the price will be. You’ll recall Chelsea’s recent performance against Wigan: 1-1 until a Mata winner in
the 90th minute.
Personally, I have always found the first few
months of the new turf season a bit of a balancing
act between the better form of those who have had
the winter off, versus the massive fitness advantage
of those who have been kept going on the allweather. So this month I decided that a good long
(and even detailed) look at what the fitness advantage of a recent racing could have, and whether that
varied by age or sex or race type – so here we go!
If you fancied Chelsea initially pre match, why
not back them in the 85th minute at much better
odds and just hope for the best! Only just recently,
Milan were hosting Bologna and were 0-1 down
until an Ibrahimovic equaliser in the 90th minute.
If you had fancied Milan at home (and why not),
then why not back them, or lay Bologna in the 85th
minute in the hope they salvage something?
So remember: the longer the delay, the better the
price!
Firstly, we have to set some kind of boundaries to
start from. I am not and never have been a racehorse
trainer (I wish), so what is a sensible period since a
last race when considering if a horse is fit or not? I
was brought up with the figure of 28 days embedded
in my mind but when you think about it that seems
far too long. I could be fit as a fiddle today (and we
are talking personally), but give me access to a few
cream cakes and chocolate and within a week or
so I would be the size of a house. My 13-year-old
son plays football, but give him a fortnight without
match fitness and he starts running out of puff just
like the rest of us. So have we had it wrong all these
years? I know horses won’t be fed like that or miss
training but race fitness is a different issue, so I
have decided seven days is as good a place to start
as any... and this is how the stats panned out...
Bottom line
Delayed entry is a great concept you should
employ if your fancied bet occurs in an IN-PLAY
betting market, be it with the bookmaker or Betfair.
You can back at far better odds and keep as a bet, or
if using Betfair, trade at the greater odds.
There are many, many examples on a daily basis
of how delayed entry can make you profit. And
remember, we don’t need to specifically delay entry
into only the Match Odds market. In football, for
example, you can delay entry into goals markets if
you think the 2nd half will see goal action.
Delayed entry and its uses is only limited by your
8
Attempt One – all horses running within 7 days or less of their last run in the
months of May and June each year over the past 10 years
Number of Number of Winning Profit/Loss ROI SP
Profit/Loss ROI Betfair SP
runners
Winners
Strike Rate SP (£1 stake)
Betfair SP
(£1 stakes)
18218 2133
11.71% -£3479.60-19.1% £62.78 0.34%
As expected from “step one”, not a lot learnt at this early stage but there is light at the end of the tunnel
(hopefully), and it is time to apply a long list of new filters to see what changes we can make with the rather
obvious aim for an increase in profits to make the whole thing worthwhile! What if we looked at colts and
fillies separately, does that tell a different story?
Attempt Two – Colts and Geldings only
runners
Winners
Betfair SP
(£1 stakes)
13229 1562
11.81
-£2629.59-19.88% -£378.87 -2.86%
Attempt Three – Fillies and Mares only
runners
Winners
Betfair SP
(£1 stakes)
4989 571
11.45 -£850.01-17.04%£404.25 8.1%
How about if we looked at horses ages next – what if we discount juveniles (two year olds), and only
looked at the older horses aged three and above?
Attempt Four – Colts and Geldings aged three and above only
runners
Winners
Betfair SP
(£1 stakes)
2571 315
12.25 -£637.65-24.8% -£256.22-9.97%
Attempt Five – Fillies and Mares aged three and above only
runners
Winners
Betfair SP
(£1 stakes)
2082 250
12.01 -£250.01-12.02%£380.79 18.29%
Once again, the figures point towards the female of the species so I will focus there, and have a look at
them by age to see if that makes the blindest bit of difference...
Attempt Six – Aged three only
runners
Winners
Betfair SP
(£1 stakes)
1511 167
11.05 -£229.37-15.18%£288.53 19.1%
Attempt Seven – Aged four only
runners
Winners
Betfair SP
(£1 stakes)
1187 119
10.03 -£390.09-32.86 -£245.02-20.64%
Attempt Eight – Aged five only
runners
Winners
Betfair SP
(£1 stakes)
740
94
12.7 £6.60 0.89% £288.9239.04%
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Attempt Nine – Aged Six and above only
runners
Winners
Betfair SP
(£1 stakes)
980
108
11.02
-£216.31-22.07%-£27.12 -2.77%
So, we have now filtered down a little to find that
the easiest way (if not the most profitable) is to
back five-year old mares who have run within the
last seven days or less, but can we do any better
given a few more filters? I looked at reducing the
days (surprisingly this made little or no difference,
though one and two day absences do not seem to be
long enough for a horse to recover and were both
financial disasters), so then I looked at the different
courses as well. Would a stiff track make the most of
any fitness advantage our horses may have, or will
that be factored in to the starting prices?
with fitness problems, and exaggerate the advantage
held by a horse with a recent outing?
As my primary focus ought to be on the flat at this
time of year, the courses I used were as follows,
though I confess I have deleted the unprofitable
courses – after all, why waste your time?
Ascot
Beverley
Hamilton
Newcastle
Newmarket (Rowley mile)
Salisbury
Having searched around the Internet (after all, it is
subjective), the following courses came up as stiff or
had uphill finishes – surely they would expose those
And the story they told was interesting again:
Using all horses (any sex) at all ages over and including three, the results for
these specific course are as below:
Course
Runners
Winners Strike Rate SP
(£1 stakes) Betfair SP
(£1 stake)
Ascot 206
15
7.28% -£4.60 -2.23%£58.43 28.37%
Beverley428
57
13.32% £18.07 4.22% £193.76 45.27%
Hamilton691
90
13.02% -£82.54 -11.95% £72.61 10.51%
Newcastle568
65
11.44% £25.72 4.53% £247.68 43.61%
Newmarket448
51
11.38% -£11.00 -2.46%
£76.21
17.01%
Salisbury309
25
8.09% £0.74 0.24% £197.07 63.78%
So, if we follow every horse at that short list of
tracks who has run in the past seven days we would
have made a profit of 845.76 points in 10 years – or
84.6 points a year. Not, in my opinion, to be sniffed
at when compared to a lot of systems out there!
Thanks to Sean there. If you want help in
spotting these qualifiers, then do look at the accompanying video: www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk/
resourcepage
Of course, I could go on (and usually do), but the
evidence seems pretty clear to me – horses that have
raced within the last seven days (but not the last
two days) have a fitness advantage at stiff courses
or ones with uphill finishes. Sadly, bookmakers are
aware of that and build it into their pricing structure
BUT following those horses at Betfair SP shows
profit year after year especially when backing the
ladies of our sport (horses not jockeys), and I will
revisit this concept in the future to see if there are
any other influences that need to be taken into
consideration (going, jockeys, trainers, etc) – but
that is all something for another day!
The PATRIARCH Presents
Plundering the
Placepot
H
10
ere’s something I can’t remember being covered in WRWM before, and since it fits in
neatly with our current interest in each-way betting,
I thought it could be worthy of our consideration.
It’s a very popular bet – the Placepot. I first came
across it some years ago now in my local betting
shop (I used to go there then, not like now when I
stick to my laptop) when betting acquaintances kept
coming up to me and telling me about their wins
on this new bet – the Placepot. As these weren’t
your annoying betting shop braggarts who were
always backing imaginary 50-1 winners I listened
to them and paid heed to this new bet. It has continued to please its devotees ever since, and with
good reason. For instance, that one bet can give you
an interest in the whole afternoon’s (or evening’s)
racing. So for anyone who’s not too sure about how
it works I’ll explain it all now – along with some
advice on how best to approach it.
punters will use a permed entry something like this.
Suppose you’re quite confident of your selection
to be placed in the first race, are not so sure in the
next three races, quite sure about race 5, but very
doubtful about race 6. So you might have a single
choice in race 1, two choices for the next three
races, one selection again in race 5 and then three
for race 6. As a perm that would be 1 by 2 by 2 by
2 by 1 by 3, or 24 lines in total at whatever stake
you wish. If you decide to have two choices in
every race then that would be 2 by 2 by 2 by 2 by 2
by 2, or 64 lines altogether. At 25 pence a line, for
example, that entry would cost £16 or at 10 pence
a line it would be £6.40. Remember also that if you
have two (or more) placed in the one race then that
can multiply up the number of winning lines you
may have. For example, if you managed to get two
selections placed in two separate races then you
could have four winning lines. At 25p a line that
would be the same as one line at the £1 dividend.
At 10p a line your winnings could be four tenths
of the £1 declared dividend. Although initially the
Placepot was a Tote-only bet it is now licensed to
all the major bookmakers so you can place your bet
with any of them on an easy-to-enter slip that is on
display in all their shops.
Placepots great attraction is that you don’t have to
find winners, just placed horses, and that is much,
much easier. The rules for placing are the same as
for ordinary place bets: with four runners or less in
the race you have to find the winner, with five, six
or seven you have two places, with eight or more
there are three places and with handicaps of 16
runners or more you get four places. The Placepot
operates at all meetings and is based on the first six
races on the card. The minimum stake is £1. These
are the basic facts of the bet.
Now comes my first bit of advice. Since there are
plenty of meetings to choose from you can afford to
be selective. Don’t, therefore, choose any meeting
that has a race or races with four or fewer runners,
because then you’ll have to find a winner. If you’re
looking to use just the one meeting per day (and
you really should concentrate on just the one), then
select a meeting that has the most races with eight,
nine or 10 runners. If that still doesn’t narrow it
down to just the one meeting then include 11 runners or 12 until you have your meeting.
You may think that is the end of the story for
the Placepot, but no, there is quite an interesting
sequel. Let’s say you’ve made your Placepot entry,
are feeling quite confident about getting a return
and are looking forward to following your bets for
the rest of the afternoon. But then disaster strikes.
Something happens in the first race, or the second,
that knocks your well-thought-out plan for six. Fear
not, for all is not lost. There is another bet called the
Quadpot that operates like a Placepot on races 3, 4,
5 and 6. So you now have the opportunity to enter
what was left of your Placepot on these remaining
races, or change it altogether for a new attempt.
Whatever you do you can now have a place entry
for the four remaining races. The dividend for the
Quadpot is naturally smaller than that for the Placepot but can still be well worth the winning.
I’m not going to tell you how to make your place
selections, as you’ll clearly have ideas of your own,
but I will say this: as far as possible stay away from
selecting favourites. Most punters naturally go for
favourites and if all six are placed, or even five (as
does happen), then the dividend is hardly worth
winning. Because it is a pool bet, like the lottery,
then the more people that are successful then the
smaller will be the share of the pool. And when
mainly the less fancied horses are placed then the
dividend can be big.
The accompanying video will highlight where
you can place a Placepot bet, and how to calculate
permutations:
It would be a brave punter who would rely on a
single line of six selections for his entry with his
stake of £1 or upwards, but if you’re feeling confident then go ahead and try it. The dividend is
declared to a stake of £1 a line so bear that in mind
when calculating any winnings. Most Placepot
P.S. A quick mention of Cheltenham last month.
My idea of finding a winner at 40-1 or upwards was
successful again this year and we didn’t have to
11
please turn over...
endure too long a wait for it. On the second day in
the fifth race Une Artiste won for Nicky Henderson
(again) at the required 40-1.
B/L 75% because there are a couple of scenarios in
the current version I am not happy with. In short, I
want more, for instance:
Reviews
If a horse drifts and wins, I want to win because I
have picked the winner (not unreasonable, I think).
The Cash Master’s
Systems and
Tipsters Update
If a horse is backed off the boards but loses, I want
to win because I have beaten the market.
The new variation means that both of those scenarios will make money. It doesn’t come for free though
(does anything?) because, in order to achieve this,
some of the winnings when a horse is backed in and
wins have to be sacrificed.
N
o less than 11 reviews and updates for you this
month. All past reviews can be found over at:
http://www.cash-master.com/blog
However the second aspect of this variation that
appeals to me is the absolute rock bottom risk factor
involved such that, in my opinion, a 50 point operating bank is more than sufficient.
Beaumonts Bets
I think you can predict by now that this is going
to be yet ANOTHER positive update for the Beaumonts Bets service. How does he do it?
The third aspect that appeals is that, I feel, anyone
will be able to get results much closer to mine than
some are able to at the moment.”
First off, the results for March. Well, a lot of systems and services really struggled over March and
BB was no exception, this time only notching up a
profit of 36 points.
Using this method, with a 50-point bank, the
month of March achieved a profit of 34.88 points
which is almost a 70% return!
Paul has made a page on the site that explains the
method here: http://tinyurl.com/cun2x5z
Er, yes, ONLY 36 points.
Just to remind you, here are the monthly totals so
far:
Check out the latest testimonials too, there are
some very happy campers doing rather well out of
Paul’s service.
August: 88.98
September: 95.55
October: 117.69
November: 97.10
December: 55.10
January: 23.10
February: 45.37
March: 36.39
Total: 559.28 points (£27,964)
Finally, Paul has also created a new video, this
time from his new home in Lanzarote, which is
well worth a watch and is on the main home page. I
have scoffed at the quality of the production, but it’s
the content that counts, and Paul is a man certainly
worth listening to – if you want to actually make
your betting pay that is.
Check it out here:
http://www.beaumontsbets.com
So it only managed a 45% increase in the 80
point bank in March but then, as Paul said, it was a
“slow”month.
Total Tennis Trading
This is a one-off review of Total Tennis Trading, a
product from the same stable as the approved Total
Football Trading.
Obviously, he continues to overdeliver on his
promises but not only are the results impressive,
he has also come up with a new variation on the
already very low risk back/lay 75% staking method
and the results of this new variation are very interesting indeed...
The package consists of eight different trading
strategies and costs $77 (roughly £50), so expensive this isn’t! Each strategy appears well thought
out and there is also a guide on factors to consider
should you want to develop your own strategies.
Here’s what he says about it:
One thing you may need to consider is the times
“I have been looking at a different way of using
12
that Tennis tends to be played. During the summer,
many tennis matches are played during the afternoon and early evenings. These are trading strategies, so you need to be able to watch the ebb and
flow of the odds movements. Later the scene moves
to the US, but this will mean some late nights, and
very early mornings when the Australian tournaments are being played.
12th Mar 2.40 Stratford
On Gossamer Wings
12th Mar 4.20 Taunton
Father Probus
16th Mar 3.35 Fakenham The Laodicean
19th Mar 2.30 Southwell
King Jack
19th Mar 3.00 Southwell
Heavenly Chorus
21st Mar 2.10 Haydock
Atherstone Hill
21st Mar 3.50 Haydock
Tom O’Tara
22nd Mar4.05 Carlisle
Kaybeew
23rd Mar 5.10 Sedgefield Endeavor
27th Mar 2.20 Market RasenTheodore Lamb
27th Mar 2.50 Market RasenD’Gigi
28th Mar 3.20 Ludlow
Esteem
28th Mar 3.40 Taunton
Be Kind
29th Mar 3.45 Newcastle Fred Bojangals
29th Mar 4.00 Ffos Las
Arturo Ono
30th Mar 2.40 Wetherby
Global Flyer
30th Mar 3.50 Wetherby
Viable
2nd Apr 3.30 Kelso
Soul Magic
2nd Apr 5.00 Kelso
Seedless
3rd Apr 3.10 Fontwell
River D’Or
3rd Apr 4.30 Sedgefield Bellflower Boy
4th Apr 2.50 Exeter
Leopard Hills
4th Apr 3.10 Hereford
Share Option
5th Apr 4.00 Wincanton Earth Planet
5th Apr 4.20 Ludlow
Dubai Crest
9th Apr 4.10 Yarmouth
Dubai Sunshine
9th Apr 4.25 Fakenham
Emperor’s Choice
As stated above, there are eight different strategies: three for beginners, two for intermediate
traders and 3 for advanced traders. Most of these
strategies appear to me to be (very) different form
the TradeShark Tennis Ttrading strategies.
The beginners’ strategies have been around a
while, but there are some new angles introduced
here that should make them worthwhile. I have seen
one of the advanced strategies before too. Please do
not misunderstand me, I play “Lay The Draw” in
football and still do well even though people continue to tell me that this strategy no longer works!
That some of these strategies have been around a
while does not devalue them!
5.11
4.20
3.50
4.43
10.50
6.20
8.68
13.0
9.28
9.60
9.37
3.95
50.0
11.50
7.40
3.69
42.0
5.22
10.0
7.60
7.20
7.67
15.50
3.81
8.0
6.42
3.25
3rd
3rd
3rd
1st
3rd
PU
6th
1st
UR
1st
4th
4th
5th
4th
4th
1st
5th
3rd
5th
1st
2nd
4th
4th
2nd
3rd
6th
1st
£519
£509
£499
£533
£523
£513
£503
£623
£611
£714
£700
£686
£672
£658
£645
£680
£667
£654
£641
£726
£712
£698
£684
£670
£656
£643
£672
This would have given you a return of 34 points
based on Betfair starting odds over the past six
weeks.
You can try Racing Winners here:
http://www.racing-winners.co.uk
I like the way each strategy is presented. You get
the logic behind the strategy, clear instructions on
how to select a qualifying match followed by clear
instructions on entry and exits, including stop loss.
Each strategy is also supported with examples.
Matchday Profits
All bets are on football, across various markets,
from corners to number of goals scored.
Each bet is given to 10 points.
There’s a section on staking and money management too. If you are new to trading then you will
need to Google some articles on trading psychology
though. Having the correct trader’s psychology is a
major component in being a consistently successful
trader!
To save my time and yours, I am not even going
to bother listing all the bets since I last posted about
this.
So, a set of what appears to be well-thought-out
strategies, one or more which should suit you if
you want to get into tennis trading. I am happy to
APPROVE this on that basis.
Feb lost a further 5 points, March went on to lose
42 points, and April is -1 point to date.
We had a loss of -2.47 points from trial starting to
end of January.
Wins are talked up, losses glossed over, and the
tips range over a whole host of leagues and markets
(overs, corners, handicap bets, multi bets, etc).
You can get Total Tennis Trading here:
http://totaltennistrading.com
I am afraid this has to be a FAILED service.
Racing Winners
You can try Match Day Profits here:
http://www.matchdayprofits.com
Here’s an update on Racing Winners for the last
six weeks based on a starting bank of £500 at BSP
odds.
Date
1st Mar
2nd Mar
2nd Mar
6th Mar
7th Mar
8th Mar
TimeCourse
4.30 Ludlow
2.55 Newbury
4.15 Doncaster
4.50 Newcastle
3.30 Fontwell
3.15 Carlisle
Horse
So Happy Harry
Marodima
Time Out
Trustan
Current Climate
Sir Tamburlane
Odds
17.30
4.10
4.20
3.76
4.81
12.50
Res.
6th
3rd
1st
3rd
1st
2nd
The Bet Plan
A final update for this.
Bank
£490
£480
£511
£501
£539
£529
The level stakes now stands at -34.22 points and it
is finally time to knock this one on the head.
13
Last year it made a good profit, turning £200 into
please turn over...
£25,000 – or did it? The results stopped at 11th
December on the website, as after this the whole
£25,000 would have gone in the remaining days of
December.
I reviewed a trading package last year called
“Total Football Trading” (see Approved Systems
List on www.cash-master.com/blog) and this
method is included in that package. Granted, there
are slightly different match selection criteria (not
hugely different) but other than that it’s the same
tried and trusted method.
So to this year. We started with a £200 ratchet
bank and a level stakes bank. The ratchet bank
went by the 22nd of January! We battled on to level
stakes thinking it would turn around, yet the losses
continued.
T.F.T. contains a total of 10 trading methods and
costs less than Cash Flow at around £65. I would
suggest that anyone wanting to get into trading,
or to find some new filters and stop-loss methods
to improve their existing arsenal of trading plans
would be much better served buying T.F.T than
Cash Flow because, as previously mentioned, you
get 10 methods including the one under review here
and you’re therefore effectively only paying £6.50
for it compared to £70 for Cash Flow.
A couple of other things bother me about this
service:
No results update for this year since 2nd Jan as we
have never been in profit.
Each day a comment after the previous day, like
“1 out of 2 yesterday, onto today”. But it is still a
loss when the winner was odds on!!
I think that NEUTRAL is the right rating for this
one. I’m not going to approve it for the reasons
given above but a failed would be overly harsh as
the method does work, it’s just not good value for
money when weighed against other products.
I have given this more than long enough to turn it
around but now it has to be filed under FAILED.
You can try The Bet Plan here:
http://thebetplan.com
You can get Cash Flow Football here:
http://www.cashflowfootball.com/cm.htm
Cash Flow Football
A one-off review of Cash Flow Football.
Early Bird Horse Racing System
This football trading system comes from the same
stable as the Smart Racing Trader and Betfair Success Formula systems that I have reviewed recently
and I’m sad to say that it unfortunately is more akin
to the latter than the former, in that it is a re-hash of
a very well established technique – which is a bit of
a shame as I’m really quite keen on Smart Racing
Trader.
In a similar vein to a recent review I posted for
the Cash master blog (Risk Free Trading) I have
recently been following another offering to the risk
free/low risk, profit making market – Early Bird
Racing.
This is available at an irresistible £34.99 with a
60-day money back guarantee via ClickBank.
This is a very simple method (not L.T.D.) that virtually all football traders will be very familiar with
and, other than the selection criteria being slightly
different, there’s nothing new to be gained here.
The eBook provides you with a 16-page overview
of how the system operates and refreshingly only
two of these pages are given over to explaining how
to use the Betfair betting exchange.
On the positive side, it is well written and easy
to follow. The selection criteria are logical and,
although I think some of the staking advice is a little
aggressive (you are talked through the pros & cons
of this), I’m certain that if you followed this system
you would make a profit.
You can easily forgive things for being twists on
existing ideas; old does not automatically mean
bad. The wheel has been around for a while and it’s
still pretty decent as design ideas go. The big issue
here is that at a price of £70 and with a No Refunds
policy, it’s just not good value for money.
The system is simplicity itself and, as the title suggests, requires that you take early prices using one
or two selected bookmakers the night before. The
following day simply lay off the selections at a time
to suit and hopefully you will have bagged yourself
a small (compared to the back stake placed), but
easy “risk-free” profit.
14
Also provided in the purchase is a nice spreadsheet package – that makes the staking options devilishly simple – and a handy facility to enable you to
overlay/underlay your lay stake. This is a neat idea
that enables those with a strong gambling instinct to
take a punt on any race and yet, still have a win/win
situation. So, if your selection has steamed since
backing it the night before (if you “underlay” the
lay stake) and the selection wins, you take a larger
profit; if it loses you will still make a modest profit.
This works the other way too, so if, for example, the
selection is no longer favourite and you believe its
chances are not significant against other opponents/
factors – you can “overlay”, enabling you to take a
bigger profit if it loses and less if it wins!
ahead. If “Rule 4” applies to a particular race,
simply enter the % reduction factor in the corresponding cell of the spreadsheet and the required
lay stake to complete your trade is calculated for
you! Clearly, if you take an earlier lay price and
a favourite or other leading selection is “pulled”
closer to the start – having already “traded-out”,
means that you are likely to be in a possible lossmaking situation, although any damage should be
minimal.
The two final pages illustrate how the author made
over £1,200 in a month between June and July of
last year (using £100 stakes). Impressive stuff, considering the risk to the bank is minimal!
One thing I did notice on occasion was that the
weight of money available at the time of placing
your lay stake on Betfair may not be sufficient to
ensure you are fully matched, and you could find
that getting out of a trade means your lay stake is
spread over a range of increasing prices. This scenario, could wipe out any profit you may have taken
had the single price offered had sufficient money
behind it to cover all of your back bet in the first
place. Alternatively, you wait until there is more
liquidity in that particular race – closer to the start,
taking a further chance that the price moves in your
favour or possibly further against you.
Following a simple selection criteria, the intention is to find horses whose prices are perceived to
steam overnight/the following day as more money
in the market gets piled onto your selection. This
can of course work the other way with the selection
occasionally going against the grain and drifting
out. Using the spreadsheet supplied, the method
explains how to remove yourself from any potentially dangerous situation, meaning that you will
take a loss albeit a modest one that won’t have you
losing sleep. In this particular situation, the spreadsheet will enable you to calculate and, if necessary,
underlay your lay stake to avoid making a loss on
both outcomes, instead making a loss on one, i.e.
if selection wins: £0.00 profit, if selection loses: £x
loss.
I found that on a number of days during the last
few weeks that I have been using this system there
were no “qualifying” early prices to take advantage
of which is key for this system to operate. So don’t
expect every day to be a racing / profit-making one.
The only thing that I can see being the real gamble
with this method is the selection process itself. I
don’t fully understand the underlying reason behind
it. However, if the author’s practical results are to
be believed in their entirety, the selection process
is sound (this was also proved with the results I
obtained). It is claimed that he had no situations
where his selections’ early prices moved against
him into a potential loss-making situation. All wins
reported in his results show the prices steaming,
during his very profitable month when making
£1,200. For this review, I achieved the following
results as shown below:
It is suggested that you stick to a particular time
each day to place your lay stakes “en bloc”. If you
do this, you will have to take whatever price is
offered at that time, which clearly may not be the
most profitable time to lay the selection off. The
author’s own results do show that he took prices at
times that were wholly dependent upon how soon
the first race of the afternoon occurred. This may
be too variable for most, and unless you are very
time aware (which I am not), you could miss your
opportunity and potentially miss placing your lay
trade completely. Clearly, this is something to be
avoided at all costs as you will be “exposed” when
the race(s) start/s.
Results/backing to £100 stakes:
13 days racing covered
33 selections
Taking lay prices nearer to the off is preferred as
you will be better placed to avoid situations where
non-runners are declared. In the event of a favourite
being “pulled”, the bookmakers will change their
offered prices to reflect this significant change to
the outcome of the race, in order to stay one step
26 selections steamed making a profit of £518
7 selections drifted: £170 loss
Overall profit/ including 5% Betfair commission
of: £348.
15
please turn over...
Pros:
Publisher Recommends
1. A simple, low-risk system to operate.
“Finally a PROVEN
Betting Service That’s
Delivered Low-risk
Profits Every Year for
the Last 5 Years…”
2. Overlay/underlay option adds a real “fun”
element to working this method.
3. Trades complete prior to racing starts – comfort knowing that your position is covered
regardless of the outcome of the race.
4. You decide when to use the method, i.e. you
can dip in and out at will as your day dictates.
W
hy spend time and effort trying to find a
needle in a haystack winner when you can
make up to £9,752.00 in the next 12 months with
this simple lay strategy…
Cons:
1. Using a fixed time each day to trade out will
not be the best option for securing the best
prices – so will need to be variable, which
could be inconvenient for most people.
Kevin Lane is the man behind the massively successful Lay Profit Alert, and he really knows his
stuff (he has had over 23 years of practice after all).
You see, to profit from laying horses on the betting you need an approach that is slightly out of the
ordinary… and judging by the results Kevin has
certainly mastered that…
2. Depending upon your staking and frequency
of use, this will require moving sums of
money between bookies and Betfair accounts
on a regular basis.
3. You have to be sufficiently regimented in your
routine to check the early race prices for the
following day, the night before at around 9pm.
Just look at the recent performance of his system:
Since 2010, a £1000 starting bank now stands
at an impressive £35,500. And we are still risking
the same percentage of our betting bank relatively
speaking.
I have to give this method the proverbial thumbs
up as I found it to be a genuinely fun system to use
with the staking made simplicity itself with the
clever spreadsheet included in the deal. For £35,
and – provided you follow the rules – you WILL
cover the purchase price in a very short space of
time. If your betting has suffered a little fatigue of
recent months/ years – treat yourself to this gem and
realise the fun that can be had playing the markets
and genuinely making a good profit in the process.
So, what’s involved?
Kevin sends out an email alert each morning containing around 4 or 5 lays... all you have to do is go
to Betfair, and place your bets according to Kevin’s
staking plan. It’s a quick process that shouldn’t
take longer than 10 minutes and all you’ll need is a
computer with Internet access and a Betfair account.
You can get the Early Bird Horse Racing System
here: http://www.cash-master.com/earlybird.php
Profiting each year since its launch in 2007, LPA
has consistently delivered year on year returns. It’s
a great low risk long-term profit maker. And with 3
months to trial the service, it’s low risk all the way
to the betting bank!
To access this month’s final four Cash Master
reviews go to:
Find out more at www.trylayprofit.com or see the
insert enclosed in this issue.
Don’t forget your exclusive WRWM
reports, to access them go to:
Highly recommended,
www.canonburypublishing.com/wins-slr-download
Regards
You will need to enter a
username and password:
Username: strategywins47
Password: bettingsuccess53
Nick Laight
16

April - What Really Wins Money

Transcription

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