Demografic change in the CEP sector

Transcription

Arbeitspapiere der FOM
Klumpp, Matthias / Marner, Torsten / Sandhaus, Gregor (Hrsg.)
ild Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung
Band 36
Demografic change
in the CEP sector
Kutlu, Cigdem / Bioly, Sascha / Klumpp, Matthias
Kutlu, Cigdem / Bioly, Sascha / Klumpp, Matthias
Demographic change in the CEP sector
FOM Hochschule
ild Institut für Logistik- & Dienstleistungsmanagement
Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung
Band 36, September 2013
ISSN 1866-0304
Essen
Forschungsförderung (DO.WERT Projekt) durch:
Die Autoren danken Kai Lorberg für Korrekturhinweise zu dieser Publikation.
Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung Band 35: Demographic change in the CEP sector
II
Table of Contents
List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................... IV
List of Figures ......................................................................................................... V
1.
Introduction .....................................................................................................1
1.1. Problem statement............................................................................................... 1
1.2. Aim of the Paper .................................................................................................. 3
1.3. Research relevance ............................................................................................. 4
2.
Theoretical basics ...........................................................................................6
2.1. Definition of demographic changes ...................................................................... 6
2.2. Demographic changes in Germany...................................................................... 7
2.3. Demographic trends by international comparison ................................................ 9
2.4. Definition of urbanisation ................................................................................... 10
2.5. Definition of skills shortage ................................................................................ 12
3.
Costs of demographic changes .....................................................................15
3.1. Financial consequences due to lack of staff ....................................................... 16
3.2. Increased recruiting costs and losses of value ................................................... 16
4.
LSPs and their CEP business model.............................................................18
4.1. The business model of CEP sector .................................................................... 18
4.2. E-commerce as main driver of CEP business .................................................... 21
4.3. E-Food as risky area in Germany ...................................................................... 24
5.
Aging society and its impacts on CEP industry .............................................28
5.1. Job requirements of CEP drivers ....................................................................... 28
5.2. Skills Shortage within CEP sector ...................................................................... 30
6.
Approach to improve drivers job profile .........................................................31
6.1. Motivational factors - hard and soft methods ..................................................... 31
6.2. Knowledge transfer through trainings ................................................................ 32
7.
Last mile solutions, future trends and innovations .........................................34
7.1. PUDO-Concept.................................................................................................. 34
7.2. Packstation ........................................................................................................ 34
7.3. Tower 24 ........................................................................................................... 36
7.4. CargoCap - underground transportation pipelines ............................................. 37
7.5. Self-driving cars or autonomous vehicle systems .............................................. 41
8.
Conclusion and critical discussion .................................................................43
III
8.1. Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 43
8.2. Critical discussion .............................................................................................. 47
Appendix ................................................................................................................49
Bibliography ...........................................................................................................49
List of Abbreviations
B2B ................... Business to business
B2C................... Business to consumer
BVL ................... Bundesvereinigung Logistik
CEP .................. Courier Express Parcel
E-commerce ..... Electronic commerce
E-food ............... Electronic food
GDR.................. German Democratic Republic
HDE .................. Handelsverband Deutschland
HR .................... Human Resources
LSP ................... Losgistics Service Provider
PUDO ............... pick-up and drop-off point concept
PwC .................. Pricewaterhouse Coopers
QR code............ Quick Response code
TFR................... Total Fertility Rate
IV
V
List of Figures
Figure 1: Population of working age in Germany .....................................................9
Figure 2: TFR for Germany compared with European countries ............................10
Figure 3: The urban and rural population of the world, 1950-2030 .........................12
Figure 4: Development of number of employees in age groups .............................17
Figure 5: Top 10 LSPs in Germany in 2011 ...........................................................18
Figure 6: Revenue development of CEP services in Germany ..............................20
Figure 7: Market share of parcel services in the B2C market in Europe .................21
Figure 8: Main types of e-commerce ......................................................................21
Figure 9: E-commerce trend in Germany ...............................................................22
Figure 10: Revenue of mailorder business and e-commerce in Europe .................23
Figure 11: Revenue of top 10 online shops in Germany (2011) .............................24
Figure 12: Homeplus virtual supermarket ..............................................................27
Figure 13: GDR Packstation ..................................................................................35
Figure 14: Packstation ...........................................................................................36
Figure 15: CargoCap .............................................................................................38
1
1. Introduction
1.1. Problem statement
The topics dealing with demographic changes are not only highly popular, but also
have an important value for the development of future markets. Different
assumptions lead to various statements regarding the number of population in
Germany by 2050. Statista.com published the assumption amounting of 71.5
million.
1
However, the Federal Centre for Political Education assumes an
assumption of 75 million. Therefore, the mean value of 73.25 million is assumed in
this thesis. Demographic trends and the ongoing structural change will change our
society significantly.2 One main cause for demographic changes is the birth rate.
The Federal Institute for Population Research stated, that in compare to other
European countries, Germany is one of the countries with the lowest birth rate. In
2009 Latvia had a birth rate about 1.17 children and Germany had a birth rate
about 1.39 children per woman. Iceland is on the top and had a birth rate about
2.20 children per woman.3
Demographic changes have also consequences on working environment. An aging
population will also affect the composition of the labour force potential and thus the
performance on the world of work and labour market. In addition it is not just a thing
of the future, but is taking place largely unnoticed and insidiously since several
decades.4
A significant consequence due to demographic changes is the skills shortage. But
why are the skill shortages seen as a significant problem for companies? And what
are the reasons behind? Promoting sustainable company culture and employee
loyalty are the main topics for Human Resources (HR) in the coming year. Because
of a good working atmosphere, employees can be held most likely in the wake of
increasing skills shortage.
5
The study ‘Transportation & logistics 2030’ by
Pricewaterhouse Coopers (PwC) stated that the success of transportation and
logistics operators depends decisively on quality and qualifications of its
employees. This prerequisite will not decrease but increase in the future.
Considering that exactly this requirement for success already causes difficulties
1
Cp. de.statista.com, as of 22.07.2013.
Cp. bpb.de, as of 17.12.2012.
3
Cp. Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung (2012), p. 49.
4
Cp. Kistler, E., Hilpert, M. (2001), p. 6 ff.
5
Cp. Rump, J. et al (2012), p. 7 ff.; businessvalue24.de, as of 17.12.2012.
2
2
today, qualified personnel will be a determining factor for the success and survival
not only of companies, but also of entire supply chains.6
In addition to the skill shortages, there is an opposite trend within the logistics
industry. The trend for e-commerce is still positive in addition to that new markets
within e-commerce are coming up, for example Deutsche Post is developing a
nationwide delivery network for online food purchases and the company admitted it
would take at least another three years to have a full nationwide network in place.
Partners are online retailers like Allyouneed.com or Gourmondo.de Expected
challenges are the cooling of the foods and the accessibility of the customer.
However the trend of e-commerce in combination with the demographic changes
and skills shortage are showing main challenges and need within the transport
industry.7
Handelsblatt published future trends for 2030 in December 2012; one trend is to
develop cars with auto-pilot functionality. The German car company Audi has
received a license from the state of Nevada that allows testing of a car on
auto-pilot. Nevada is one of the rare countries that grant a license as this. Audi said
that its self-driving cars come complete with a self-parking system that can allow
the cars to seek out an open spot in a parking garage and squeeze itself into it. The
vehicle can also park itself on city streets.8 This innovative news of Audi is not the
final solution, nevertheless it is a good approach and first step to generate further
developments and finally to find a proper solution which can help the transport
industry to solve the problem due to shortage skills. It can be said, as the initial
change will happen is hard. Whether abruptly by a developed for series production,
fused drive system for long distance freight transport or by evolutions of driver
assistance systems in passenger that take the human driver step by step from the
road. Volvo plans with the completion of an accident insured cars in the next 8
years. All other major car companies are working on their own projects. The
supplier Continental operates its own development center with 120 employees.
2025 should be fully developed automatic driving. With an autopilot for the
motorway, the company expects to have for 2015. Ultimately, it is about transport
of goods, the road space used optimally with slower speeds and saves fuel.
Furthermore, its performance increases by a multiple that machines are available
6
7
8
Cp. Pricewaterhouse Cooper (2012), p. 6-9.
Cp. welt.de, as of 23.12.2012.
Cp. handelsblatt.de, as of 12.12.2012.
3
around the clock. By then, the legal issues such as liability for accidents need to be
clarified.9
1.2. Aim of the Paper
Aim of this work is a discussion of demographic changes and the consequences
within the logistics branch, in particular the CEP industry.
Furthermore, it is analysed what effects arise through the lack of specialists like
qualified drivers especifically in the CEP industry. The general trend within CEP
industry through e-commerce should be represented analytically. In addition new
trends especially transport of food through e-commerce and which impact it brings
to the industry is represented. Additionally, it will be shown how the trend of e-food
in other countries, such as South Korea, has developed compared to Germany. In
addition, how is the market structure related to e-food in Germany. Tesco for
example has got a chain in South Korea called ’Homeplus’. Homeplus stores are
inter alia located in Seoul subway stations. The metro station has pictures of
shelves with food and other consumer goods customers would generally find in an
actual store. Shoppers add items to their online shopping cart by means of their
smart phone and QR codes. The goods are delivered after they come home. A
virtual store requires a home delivery supply chain. 10 Like mentioned before, in
Germany Deutsche Post is developing a nationwide delivery network for online
food purchases. Within the next three years, the company admitted to have a full
nationwide network in place.11
By analysing the following questions, the main question, what are the risks and
chances through skills shortage will be answered. In addition, it is represented
which impact skills shortage will have by taking into consideration the innovative
future trends like mentioned before.

What are the costs of demographic changes?

How is the development and trend of e-commerce within the CEP industry in
Germany?

9
How is the market structure related to e-food in Germany?
Cp. faz.net, as of 09.07.2013.
Cp. logisticsviewpoints.com, as of 10.07.2013.
Cp. lebensmittelzeitung.net, as of 11.02.2013.
10
11

4
What opportunities and risks arise from the shortage of skilled workers
within the CEP industry?

What impact has the supposed shortage of drivers onto the business?

How can the job profile of the driver be enhanced?

What kind of actions and innovations need to be taken to work against to the
driver shortage?
1.3. Research relevance
The logistics industry is a growing industry in Germany. In 2009, the revenues of
the German logistics sector amounted to around 200 billion Euro, according to the
Federal Logistics Association or Bundesvereinigung Logistik (BVL). In 2011, it
generated revenues of around 223 billion Euro. And in 2012 it generated revenues
of 225 billion Euro. For 2013, BVL estimates a revenue from 223 to 228 billion
Euro.12 Demographic change also plays an important role in Germany. The skills
shortage is a risk for continued growth and business success, according to a
survey of BVL. Thus, 75 % of the companies operating in the logistics sector have
difficulties in filling vacancies adequately. 73 % of respondents expect even
sacrificing for the future. 13 Due to the elimination of compulsory military service
logistics industry now suffers from fewer trained truck drivers. This situation has an
impact on the logistics industry and coupled with demographic change a lack of
drivers is expected.14
Within the logistics industry, the CEP industry is a sector which has experienced
significant growth - driven inter alia by the e-commerce. Online shopping is
becoming increasingly important through online providers such as Amazon. The
delivery of a consignment is usually 24-48 hours. 15 The CEP driver plays an
important role in delivering the shipment and to ensure the continued existence of
the business model. Also, demographic change and the shortage of skilled workers
such as drivers also plays an important role.
12
Cp. verkehrsrundschau.de, as of 11.07.2013.
Cp. wirtschaftsforum.de, as of 11.07.2013.
14
Cp. zf-zukunftsstudie.de, as of 29.12.2012.
15
Cp. Vahrenkamp, R. (1998), p. 82-84.
13
5
Logistics companies are looking for other innovative business areas such as e-food
to drive the business forward and continue to grow. However, here are drivers
required to timely deliver the consignments to the customer.16
To automate the process of last mile, logistics companies are working on
innovative models, such as the Packstation, Tower24, CargoCap or self-driving
cars.17 In addition, to get the dependencies of drivers in control.
Further investments are being made by the companies to motivate the driver, to
make the job profile more attractive of a driver - and to keep the employees in the
company.18
This thesis analyses the impact of demographic change in Germany, on the
business of logistics services and opportunities and threats arising from it.
16
17
18
Cp. Waschun, M., Rühle, J. (2012), p. 3 ff.
Cp. dp-dhl.com, as of 02.06.2013; tower24.de, as of 11.07.2013; Cargocap.de, as of 23.06.2013.
Cp. Expert interview (Appendix 1), p. 50 ff.
6
2. Theoretical basics
This chapter is dealing with definitions of basic terms. In addition it gives an
overview with facts and figures for demographic changes in Germany in compare
to other countries.
2.1. Definition of demographic changes
The term demographic change refers to the change in the composition of the age
structure within a society. The first term is neither positively nor negatively affected
and may refer to a population increase and decrease in population. This
demographic development is influenced by the fertility rate, life expectancy and the
balance of migration.19
In the age of industrialisation - end of the 18th century, the living conditions of
people in Europe increasingly rose along with the population. The theory of the ‘first
demographic transition’ which was coined by Notestein 1945, explains the resultant
increase in the birth rate and decrease in mortality rates as a reaction to the
improvement in hygiene and medical care.
20
The theory of the ‘second
demographic transition’ explains the rapid decline in birth rates during the 1970s in
Europe. Additionally it elucidates the ongoing stagnation of birth rates at a low level
in some countries of Europe until then as a product of socio-cultural changes. Many
people changed their life and their values or traditional forms of life – these are
reasons for, why many people postponing or less frequently realising for example
their desire for children.21
“The population pyramids of the European countries show during that the first two
decades after the Second World War had especially high birth rates. Since the
1970s, demographers have observed negative trends in the population structure in
Europe. The lower birth rates in the recent past and present come with increasing
life expectancy for Europeans. Ongoing low birth rates lead to an ageing of
societies if mortality rates remain low. Consequently, half of the population growth
between 2005 and 2050 in Europe will be due not to births, but rather the fact that
increasingly more people are living longer and longer. Furthermore, the “baby
19
20
21
Cp. foerderland.de, as of 12.12.2012.
Cp. Bähr, J., (2006), p. 56 ff.
Cp. Van de Kaa, D. (2002), p. 1.
7
boomer” generation of the post-war period is now passing the threshold to
retirement and highlights the turning point in the demographic development.”22
If one speaks today of the challenge of or the adjustment to demographic change,
then this usually means the challenges or adjustments that come with an ageing
society.23
2.2. Demographic changes in Germany
The number of people living in Germany - currently there are around 80.2 million24 depends on three important demographic processes: the births, the deaths, and the
result of immigration and emigration. By the early 1970s there was a surplus of
births in Germany. Since the beginning of the fertility decline, the number of deaths
exceeds the number of births. The reason why Germany's population could grow
by 2002 was because of the high immigration surplus. Since 2003, the migration is
decreasing and therefore there is no compensation for the death surpluses
anymore - the result is, that the population in Germany is declining.25
The 12th Population projection for Germany, conducted by the Federal Statistic
Office, shows a growth in population until 2060. The future changes in the size and
above all in the age structure of Germany’s population are quantifying and
demonstrating the effects of the expected demographic developments from today's
perspective. Here, long-term stability and continuance of population dynamic
processes become apparent. The prediction is based on assumptions on the birth
rate, life expectancy and the balance of inflows and outflows from Germany.26
The number of births will continue to decline. The low birth rate means that the
number of potential mothers is getting smaller. The number of girls, who were born
until now, is already smaller than their mothers. Once these girls grow up and have
also averaged less than 2.1 children, the future number of children will continue to
fall, because then fewer potential mothers will be alive.27
Despite rising life expectancy, the number of deaths will increase due to strong
cohorts growing into old age. The number of deaths exceeds the number of births
22
Linz, K., Stula, S. (2010), p. 2.
Cp. Commission of the european communities (2008), p. 20 f.
25
Cp. bib-demografie.de, as of 11.05.2013.
26
Cp. Statistisches Bundesamt, (2009), p. 5 f.
27
Cp. Statistisches Bundesamt, (2009), p. 6 f.
23
24
8
more and more. The rapidly growing deficit of birth cannot be compensated by the
net migration. The population in Germany, which has been decreasing since 2003,
will continue to decline accordingly. In continuation of the current demographic
trends, the population of about 82 million at the end of 2008 decreases to about 65
(the lower limit of the average population) or 70 million (ceiling of the medium
population) in 2060.28
The aging of now heavily occupied middle-aged leads to major shifts in the age
structure. In year 2008, the population was about 19 % of children and young
people under 20 years, 61 % of 20 to 65-year-olds and 20 % of 65 aged people
and older. In 2060, every third (nearly 34 %) will have experienced at least 65
years of life and there will be twice as much 70-year olds, as children are born.29
Similar to the population as a whole, the population of working age (here: from 20
to 65 years) age will shrink significantly. Today almost 50 million people are in this
age group. Their numbers will decline significantly after 2020 and in the year 2035
the number will be about 39 to 41 million. Afterwards in 2060, about 36 million
persons will be in working age, corresponding to -27 % compared to 2008 - if the
net inflow and outflows will amount annually to approximately 200,000 people. If
the net migration is only half as high, then there is in 2060 an even smaller pool of
potential employees, which means almost 33 million or -34 % compared to 2008.30
The decrease in the number of 20 to 65 year old employees in total goes hand in
hand with a shift back to the older working age. This trend is demonstrated by the
following figure. Currently holds 20 % of people of working age to the younger
group of 20 to under 30 year olds, 49 % for the middle age group of 30 to under 50
years and 31 % for older from 50 to under 65. A particularly dramatic change in the
age structure of the German economy is expected for the first time between 2017
and 2024. In this period, the potential labour force will consist of 40 % among 30 to
50 year old people and 50 to 65 year old humans.31
The number of people living in Germany - currently there are around 80.2 million32 depends on three important demographic processes: the births, the deaths, and the
28
Cp. Statistisches Bundesamt, (2009), p. 5 ff.
30
31
29
32
9
result of immigration and emigration. By the early 1970s there was a surplus of
births in Germany. With the beginning of the fertility decline since that time exceeds
the number of deaths of those babies. Germany's population could grow by 2002
only due to the high immigration surplus. Since 2003, the downward migration gain
cannot compensate for the Death surpluses and the population in Germany is
declining.
Figure 1: Population of working age in Germany
49%
40%
40%
31%
20%
20%
20 to <30 years
30 to <50 years
2008
50 to 65 years
2017 to 2024
Source: own figure based on: Statistisches Bundesamt, (2009), p. 5f.
Source: own figure based on: Statistisches Bundesamt, (2009), p. 5 f.
2.3. Demographic trends by international comparison
The fertility situation in Europe is characterised by different trends and differences
in the current level. The figures for birth rates represented in the illustration below,
published by the Federal Institute for Population Research in Wiesbaden in
December 2012, show that Germany is among the countries with the lowest birth
rates in the world. In 2009 the number of children was about 1.39 per woman in
Germany. Latvia is in the back in Europe with a number of 1.17 children per
10
woman, Iceland leads with 2.2 children in the statistics, followed by Ireland (2.07),
Turkey (2.04), France (2.01), Sweden (1.98) and Norway (1.95). 33
Figure 2: TFR for Germany compared with European countries
2,5
2.20
2
1,5
1.95
1.98
2.01
Norway
Sweden
France
2.04
2.07
Turkey
Ireland
1.39
1.17
1
0,5
0
Latvia
Germany
Iceland
(Data base as of 2009)
Source: own figure based on: Federal Institute for Population Research (2012), p. 49.
Source: own figure based on: Federal Institute for Population Research (2012), p.
49.
In particular, the Nordic countries and France have much higher birth rates than
Germany. As an explanation, it is assumed that for example in France fertility is
promoted by a focus on the reconciliation of family and work and this leads to a
higher birth rate. In the Nordic countries a policy of gender equality is operated,
which is also accompanied with a high level of fertility. The low birth rate in
Germany was declared a long time by a focus on the traditional family policy.
Meanwhile, Germany has reached a change in time and infrastructure policy by
supporting parents during the maternity leave by money for parents so called
‘Elterngeld’ and the expansion of child care facilities or organisations.34
2.4. Definition of urbanisation
Urbanisation is a process of expansion and diffusion of urban lifestyles and
behaviour, for example household structures, consumption patterns, occupational
33
34
11
differentiation, value ideas of the citizens, and the result of structure of urban
development. Compared to the concept concerned only demographic and
settlement structure aspects, urbanisation also includes socio-psychological and
socio-economic components. By pronounced migration from rural areas to the
cities, there is rapid natural population growth and incorporations – the result is an
increase of the number of inhabitants in the city region. Seen from the development
of the physical infrastructure, urbanisation is one factor for the landscape
consumption, in addition it limits the capacity of landscape budget significantly
within the heavily urbanised areas. One further result can also be environmental
pollution and environmental hazards.35
Following figure demonstrates the development of the twentieth century and the
rapid urbanisation of the world’s population. The global proportion of urban
population increased from a mere 13 per cent in 1900 to 29 per cent in 1950 and,
according to the 2005 Revision of World Urbanisation Prospects, reached 49 per
cent in 2005. Since the world is projected to continue to urbanise, 60 per cent of
the global population is expected to live in cities by 2030. The rising numbers of
urban dwellers give the best indication of the scale of these unprecedented trends:
the urban population increased from 220 million in 1900 to 732 million in 1950, and
is estimated to have reached 3.2 billion in 2005, thus more than quadrupling since
1950.36
35
36
Cp. wirtschaftslexikon.gabler.de, as of 10.03.2013.
Cp. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, (2006), p. 9 ff.
12
Figure 3: The urban and rural population of the world, 1950-2030
Source: taken
Unitedfrom:
Na ons
– World
Urbaniza
onUrbanization
Prospects (2006),
page 9.(2006), p. 9.
Source:
United
Nations
– World
Prospects
2.5. Definition of skills shortage
This section considers the definition of skilled labour and the different meanings
attached to the term skills shortages and the way they arise in the internal and
external labour markets. In practice, the term skills shortage describes a variety of
situations, some of which are not synonymous with what would be considered an
actual market shortage. The discussion contrasts the concepts of skills shortages
with skills gaps and recruitment difficulties.
The Federal Government of Germany defined skilled labour or skilled employee or
professionals as persons with recognised academic or otherwise recognised at
least two years of completed apprenticeship.37
The term labour or skills shortage has no universally agreed upon definition. One
definition for skills shortage is when the demand for skilled workers is not, or
cannot be adequately met. This might apply, for example, macro-economic or
relate only to technical or professional space and / or time-limited partial labour
markets. Possible indicators are the development of vacancy periods or the
37
Cp. Deutscher Bundestag (2011), p. 3.
13
juxtaposition of vacancies to the number of unemployed. However, these variables
are not sufficient, when these are seen individually as a comprehensive indicator of
a lack of skilled labour.38
In practise, the term ‘skills shortage’ describes a variety of situations, some of
which would not be considered an actual labour market shortage.39 As Haskel and
Martin note, the interpretation of skill shortages is a controversial topic. Haskel and
Martin argue that the term may not be used consistently and the information tends
to be collected from employers.40 In addition, Arrow and Caplan argue that some
proposals for solving shortage problems stem from a misunderstanding of the
causes of shortages as well as from an exaggeration of the evidence. 41 For
example, some of the definitions of skills shortage are to do with the absence of
particular skills among current employees in a firm (internal labour market) rather
than a shortage of the number of people available for work (from the external
labour market).42 In addition, much of the discussion, focused on the macro-labour
market factors, is centered on recruitment difficulties, which are related to the
shortage of individuals with the required skills in the accessible labour market,43
and skill gaps which are linked directly to the deficiency in the skills of the
employer’s workforce.44
A rich source of literature on the actual causes of skills shortage exists – autors like
Blanchard & Diamond (1989), Burgess (1992) or Cohen & Zaidi (2000, 2002) or
Richardson (2007) and many more. Specifically, this literature illustrates how
changes in supply are affected by factors such as:

Changes in education and training provisions;

Changes in preferences for various forms of work;

Demographic changes resulting from various factors such as an ageing
workforce; and

38
Emigration and immigration factors.
Cp. Deutscher Bundestag (2011), p. 3.
Cp. Daniels, R. (2007), p. 2.
Cp. Haskel J., Martin C. (1993), p. 573 f.
41
Cp. Arrow K., Capron W. (1959), p. 292 f.
42
Cp. Richardson, S. (2010), p. 122 f.
43
Cp. Richardson, S. (2010), p. 122 f.
44
Cp. Richardson, R., Henson, H., Lavoie, C. (1996), p. 32.
39
40
14
Alternatively, demand changes are considered to be a result of changes in
technology, work organisation, shifts in consumer tastes, commodity price
changes, as well as demographic shifts.45
45
Cp. Cohen, M., Zaidi, M. (2002), p. 206 f.
15
3. Costs of demographic changes
The mentioned statement of PwC, that the success of transportation and logistics
depends on quality and qualifications of its employees is confirmed and
complemented by a further study of the University Heilbronn in cooperation with ZF
Friedichshafen AG. Especially the shortage of drivers is a central challenge of the
future. Currently, about 660,000 people work as a driver in the German haulage
distance transport. Their average age is 46 years. 40 % of them will retire in the
next 10 years. Since compulsory military service was abolished in Germany, for
potential young drivers accounted for in this simple way to get a driving license.
The volume of goods transport is rising, according to ZF future study of currently
434 billion Euro tonne-kilometers per year to 500 billion in 2025. Because of that,
the transportation industry will be affected by the skills shortage due to
demographic changes in a special way - compared to other industries. One further
challenge is to ameliorate the poor image of the industry as well as the job profile of
drivers. Furthermore, society is unaware of the importance of freight and its
relevance to business. There is a lack of perception in terms of logistical processes’
importance with regard to the growing consumer habits (i.e. no online shopping
without logistics industry).46
Especially Logistics Service Providers (LSP), which inter alia are operating in the
Courier Express and Parcel (CEP) industry, will be affected by the upcoming
demographic changes and its challenges. One main lever for the CEP industry is
the e-commerce market - which is analysed in chapter 4. This market can be
divided into the areas of business to business or B2B and business-to-consumer or
B2C. Goldman Sachs globally estimates the revenue in e-commerce in 2012 to
820.5 billion Dollar. According to a study conducted by the trade association of
Germany (HDE), the German e-commerce market generated a revenue of 26.1
billion Euro.47
The companies in Germany should be prepared that the population and hence the
workforce is getting older. A corollary is that the number of employed persons
between 20 and 65 years of age continuously decreases and the workforce is
getting older. According to various reasons this leads to significantly, increased
costs for businesses. These can be divided into: costs due to increased sick days,
46
47
Cp. zf-zukunftsstudie.de, as of 29.12.2012.
16
costs through early retirement solutions, increased recruiting costs or value loss by
remaining vacancies and costs by declining productivity. 48 This chapter discusses
the various costs.
3.1. Financial consequences due to lack of staff
The working environment in Germany is going to change dramatically in the coming
decades. During this time the company will age as well as shrink and therefore
much less workers will be available. Until 2030 also up to seven million skilled
workers will be missing. This can lead to loss of revenue in companies, along with
increased costs due to the changing age structure of the company. This leads
according to various reasons to significantly, increased costs for businesses. Thus,
the companies cannot develop their full potential due to lack of professional or
managerial staff. There will be an increased need for resources to recruit
employees. In addition companies should count, due to the increasing number of
older workers, with increased expenses for absence due to illness and increased
vacation entitlement or early retirement schemes.
The costs can be divided into the following categories:

Costs through increased downtime

Costs through early retirement solutions

Increased recruitment costs / value loss by not filled vacancies

Costs by declining productivity49
3.2. Increased recruiting costs and losses of value
In Chapter 2, it is seen that the number of workers will fall more in the coming years
between 20 and 65 years. Simultaneously, the number of employees who wanders
into retirement is growing. That means in the future, companies must increase the
number of new hires, even if they want to keep the staff only - and this on the
grounds of a shrinking market of workers. An increase in the workforce is going to
be an even greater challenge. The figure below shows how the number of
employees would develop in each age group, if both employee turnover rate and
the number of employments remained constant. By 2025, approximately 100
employees would be recruited as many employees in addition to the normal
48
49
Cp. Zander, G. (2011), p. 1.
Cp. Zander, G. (2011), p. 2.
17
fluctuation move into retirement. This corresponds in this example, almost 10 % of
the total workforce in 2010. Additionally, the number of employees within age group
60 to 67 increased by 360 % in 2025 compared to 2010 and a number of 58
employees.50
Figure 4: Development of number of employees in age groups
Source: own figure based on: Zander, G. (2011), p. 4.
If these positions are not adequately staffed, the companies can expect also
considerable losses of value, if orders cannot be processed due to understaffing.
The Institute of German Economy has estimated in a study for the period Q3 2007
to Q2 2008 losses of value of 28.5 billion Euro for the companies in Germany, due
to the already emerging skills shortages. However, the proportion of engineers was
about 61 %.51
50
51
Cp. Zander, G. (2011), p. 4.
Cp. Zander, G. (2011), p. 5.
18
4. LSPs and their CEP business model
In any organisation logistics is an integral part and an effective logistics system can
ensure efficient achievement of business goals of the organisation. LSPs are
service provider, which help the organisation in an easy and economical manner.
They offer several services and support to provide a timely delivery of the raw
material, semi-finished and finished goods, whether externally or internally. LSPs
are using different modes of transportation such as water, land or air.
52
The figure
below gives an overview of the top 10 LSPs in Germany in 2011 based on
domestic revenue. Accordingly, in 2011 Deutsche Post DHL is the biggest LSP with
revenues of 8.1 billion Euro and Hermes Europe GmbH ranks 10 with a revenue of
1.45 billion Euro.53
Figure 5: Top 10 LSPs in Germany in 2011
Revenue in million Euro
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
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8100
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2610
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ch
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ic
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1750
Source:
u own fig re based on: Fraunhofer SCS, (2012) p. 9.
Source: own figure based on: Fraunhofer SCS (2012), p. 9.
4.1. The business model of CEP sector
The CEP sector has arisen over the past 20 years from the traditional transport of
less than truckload general cargo weighing up to two tons. The starting point of the
development was the decision by parcel services to concentrate on the share that
was easy to standardise and to establish this area as a separate market for parcel
shipments.54 A characteristic feature of CEP services is high shipping volume with
relatively low weights per parcel. The transported goods usually weigh no more
52
53
54
Cp. bestlogisticsguide.com, as of 24.03.2013.
Cp. Fraunhofer SCS, (2012), p. 9.
Cp. Vahrenkamp, R. (1998), p. 82-84.
19
than 31.5 kilograms. This limit ensures that a single person can pick up or deliver
the parcel.55
The offer of CEP services is based on sophisticated networks that enable fast
shipments and exact commitments for delivery times. The networks generally
consist of a first leg, main leg and subsequent leg. The main leg is the highly
efficient transport of large quantities (typically by rail or ship) as the central element
of combined transports. The main leg, first leg and subsequent leg form the
fundamental processes of distribution logistics. In the first leg, goods are picked up
at various senders and then consolidated. In the main leg, the goods are jointly
distributed to other warehouses. The subsequent leg covers the detailed final
sorting and the delivery to the recipient.56
Courier services transport spontaneously sent shipments that are highly valuable for example, watches, jewelry and high-quality replacement parts. Characteristic
features are permanent personal supervision of the shipment and the courier’s
access to the shipment at any time in order to make arrangements. Another
criterion is that couriers provide seamless transport and delivery documentation.
The shipments weigh an average of 1.5 kilograms. For national shipments, delivery
is usually made on the same day or by 10 a.m. on the following day. The market
consists of many small companies. Courier services are available both nationally
and internationally.57
Express services quickly and reliably transport parcels that are usually of high
value. Unlike courier services, the transport is not done in an exclusive and
personal manner. But the express transport is performed by a single source. This is
done within the service provider’s own networks, some of which may span the
entire globe. Fixed delivery times like 8 a.m., 9 a.m., or 10 a.m. are part of the
express service provider’s offer.58
Parcel services concentrate on national, regular and sometimes scheduled
transports of largely standardised, lightweight packages. Deliveries are usually
made overnight. The parcel companies design their services for individual
shipments. They are much more concerned about quantities and use a high degree
55
Cp. Vahrenkamp, R. et al. (2007), p. 11 ff.
57
58
Cp. Rahn, K. P. (2003), p. 8 ff.
56
20
of systemisation. The transports done by parcel services are easier to handle as a
result of their standardised sizes compared with the transport of general cargo that
has various forms and sizes. Processes using mechanical conveyor systems such
as rollers, running belts and slides are widely used. This allows operations and IT
processes to be highly standardised.59
The revenue in the years 2000 to 2012 of CEP services in Germany has an almost
annually increasing trend, like shown in figure 6. In year 2000 the reported revenue
for CEP services in Germany was about 10.05 billion Euro. In 2012, total revenue
in total was about 15.53 billion Euro – this is an increase of about 55 %.
Figure 6: Revenue development of CEP services in Germany
Revenue in billion Euro
18
16
14.98
14
13.90
13.80
2007
2008
12.60
15.53
13.98
13.27
11.80
12
10,05
10,02
10.36
10.50
2000
2001
2002
2003
11.10
10
8
6
4
2
0
2004
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
Revenue in billion Euro
Source: own figure based on: BIEK – KE Consult (2012) p. 10-11.
Source: own figure based on: BIEK - KE Consult (2012), p. 10-11.
Figure below shows that DHL has 23 % of market share in Europe in 2011,
measured by the number of delivered packets. UPS and Fedex have a market
share in Europe of smaller than 2 %. On the other hand, the market share of UPS
in Asia is about 31 % and Fedex has a market share in Asia of about 25 %,
measured by total revenue.60
59
60
Cp. Vahrenkamp, R. (1998), p. 82-84.
21
Figure 7: Market share of parcel services in the B2C market in Europe
Share in % measured on paket deliveries
25
23
19
20
18
15
15
15
10
10
7
5
2
1
0
DHL
Hermes
DPD
TNT
GLS
UPS
FedEx
Andere,
Other, local LSP
lokaleLogistikunternehmen
Source:
u own
ownfigure
fig re based
based on:
sta.com as ofas
24.03.2013.
Source:
on:www.sta
www.statista.com,
of 24.03.3013.
4.2. E-commerce as main driver of CEP business
E-commerce also called electronic commerce is widely considered the buying and
selling of products over the Internet, but any transaction that is completed solely
through electronic measures can be considered e-commerce. E-commerce is
subdivided into three main categories, figure below shows a pictorial illustration:

Business to business (B2B)

Business to consumer (B2C)

Consumer to consumer (C2C)
Figure 8: Main types of e-commerce
C2C
B2B
Business
B2C
Consumer
Source: on:
ownMerz,
figure based
on: Merz,
M. (1999), p. 21.
Source: own figure based
M. (1991),
p. 21.
Internet is an electronic medium and offers a buying and selling process of
products and additional services for companies and end-consumer, without using
any paper documents. The basic idea is that buyers and sellers of goods and
services can communicate through the Internet. Both share information about the
goods and the purchase request. The seller gives information about his product
22
and the price. The buyer informs of its desire to buy and its identity. Then the seller
sends the goods to the buyer and the buyer pays for the agreed price. The
payment itself is also provided by information over the Internet.61
However e-commerce is much more than just dealing on electronic way. This
includes the entire business process, from advertising, business contacts and
conducting business, to after-sales services, actions to increase customer loyalty
and online banking in the new electronic medium. 62
The graph below demonstrates the evolution of the market and shows the revenue
with goods by online trade in Germany in the years 2000 to 2011 and a forecast for
the year 2012. In 2000, the interactive trading generated (online and mail order
services including digital) revenue of goods in the amount of 1.0 billion Euro by
internet. By 2011 the generated revenue through online business was about 21.7
billion Euro.63
Figure 2
Figure 9: E-commerce trend in Germany
Revenue for e-Commerce generated with goods in Germany in the years of 2000 to 2011 and a forecast for 2012
(in billions of Euro)
Revenue in billions of Euro
30
25,30
25
21,70
20
18,30
15,50
15
13,40
10,00
10,90
10
7,40
5,20
5
1,00
1,80
2,70
3,60
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
Source: taken from: Bundesverband des Deutschen Versandhandels, versanhandel.org.
Source:
taken
from:
Bundesverband
versanhandel.org.
61
62
63
Cp. Merz, M. (2002), p. 21 ff.
Cp. Merz, M. (2002), p. 21 ff.
des
Source: Bundesverband des Deutschen
Verhandels, versandhandel.org
Deutschen
Versandhandels,
23
"E-commerce is booming. A golden era of online trading is kicking off currently. The
German retail markets are selling already 10 % of its goods via e-commerce which corresponds to total revenue of 30 billion Euro. These are fantastic values for
trading companies. Such growth rates were generated during the economic miracle
50 years ago."64 stated Jürgen Gerdes, member of the board of DP DHL.65
The figure below shows the development of mailorder business and e-commerce
since 1974 to 2007. Since 1974 to 2007 there is an increase of 825 %.
Figure 10: Revenue of mailorder business and e-commerce in Europe
Source: own figure based on: www.statista.com, as of 31.03.2013.
Figure 11 below demonstrates the top 10 biggest online-shops in Germany in the
year 2011. As the graph shows, amazon.de is one of the strongest shops in
Germany and the revenue growth between 2010 and 2011 is about 34.84 %. On
rank 2 is otto.de - and to compare the revenue growth – otto.de has a growth
between 2010 and 2011 of about 4.82 %.
64
65
Gerdes, J. (2012), p. 7.
Cp. DP DHL (2012), p. 5-7.
24
Figure 11: Revenue of top 10 online shops in Germany (2011)
Source:
u own fig re based on: www.sta sta.com as of 31.03.2013.
Source:
own figure based on: www.statista.com, as of 31.03.2013.
The top retail sites in Germany were in December 2012, according to Comscore as
follows: Amazon had 35.2 million unique visitors, eBay counted 33.6 million and
Otto Group reported 15.3 million unique visitors. Idealo reported 9 million and
Apple ranked number 4, with 8 million counted unique visitors. Comscore stated
that eBay Stores had also nearly 6.6 million unique visitors.66
Across Europe, the Otto Group has got around 33 million visitors and is ranked as
No. 3, behind Amazon with 123 million unique visitors. eBay has 117 million
visitors, while, for example, Ikea has 18.9 million unique visitors, in addition
Rakuten reported 17 million visitors.67
4.3. E-Food as risky area in Germany
Through e-commerce there was a sea change in business, due to that many
companies tried to enter also the area of online grocery. However, many of these
pioneers failed and the result is, that online grocery sales have grown much slower
than the overall e-commerce market.68
66
67
68
Cp. etailment.de, as of 01.04.2013.
Cp. etailment.de, as of 01.04.2013.
Cp. Waschun, M., Rühle, J. (2012), p. 1.
25
In Western countries, most of the customers continue to shop for their groceries by
going to traditional grocery stores. But it should be known, that in some countries
the online market is growing quickly. In 2010, the United Kingdom had a dynamic
market, with Internet grocery sales comprising 4.5 % of total grocery. However, in
other countries with similar characteristics, growth has been slow – in Germany the
Internet comprises just 0.2 % of total grocery sales.69
One main cause for the distinctions of sales across similar countries is that each
country has different food retail markets. Unlike Germany, the United Kingdom and
France have extremely consolidated food markets. In both countries, there is less
price competition and fewer hard discounters – as in Germany. These reasons are
a door opener for a retail concept based on ‘high-value service’ such as online
grocery. Furthermore, some of the requirements for establishing an online grocery
market vary significantly across countries, for example large metropolitan areas
with fewer grocers, high broadband usage, and lots of online shoppers. Therefore
online grocers should adapt their business models, products, and services
accordingly.70
The German market is characterised by an intense and highly price-driven
competition. This can be attributed mainly to a high saturation of the market. The
top 5 retailers are representing 70 % of the market - and some of the main
successful discounters are Aldi, Lidl, Penny and Netto. Its market share has risen
constantly over the years and currently they have a market share around 44 %.
The food retail market is estimated to total about 125 billion Euro in 2011 and is the
second largest market in Europe. The biggest market in Europe is in France, which
represents total revenue about 145 billion Euro. United Kingdom follows with a total
market about 121 billion Euro and thus is on rank three.71
Due to the high competition between retailers in Germany, they have often reduced
their prices sooner in the past few years, rather than further differentiating features
and services. For example, in the United Kingdom or Switzerland, the serviceorientation has been seen as a relatively early opportunity for differentiation. The
69
70
71
26
German online food retailing as an additional option for the customer must
therefore also be accurately measured at these price demands. 72
The business models of online food retailers are not similar – they generally use
one or any combination of four approaches to distribute grocery orders to
customers, as described below.

Store to home: Grocers use existing store to supply online shoppers

Click-and-collect: Online shoppers collect goods at grocery stores

Warehouse to home: Online start-ups (and some grocery stores) deliver
from warehouse

Drive through: Some grocers are adopting this time-saving approach73
Some retailers, such as Sainsbury’s in the United Kingdom and Colruyt in Belgium,
offer more than one approach. The British supermarket chain Tesco goes even
further - already offering both in-store click-and-collect service and home delivery, it
has begun investing in shadow warehouses to increase the efficiency of home
delivery. Tesco sells everyday products via QR code scanning of billboards in
subway stations. Since February 2012 Tesco or Homeplus has also built on the
underground station in Seoul Seoulleung a virtual Homeplus supermarket. The
illustration below shows that customers can shop in the Homeplus supermarkets.
However, not by placing the products in their shopping cart as usual, but by
scanning the QR code below it and then have the goods delivered to their home.
Total of more than 35,000 products are available - milk, eggs, pasta sauces,
handkerchiefs, to digital cameras can be ordered home in the virtual supermarket
via QR code scanning. Deliveries are made on the desired date and delivery prices
of around one to four dollars. This is dependent on the delivery time. The products
are delivered by a Homeplus store near the customer. Each store delivers every
two hours. The delivery service is ten hours a day. But the people, who do not wait
in Seoulleung for a subway, can easily continue shopping at Homeplus mobile. For
example, who needs supplies for his / her empty water bottles, only needs to scan
72
73
Cp. Waschun, M., Rühle, J. (2012), p. 2.
27
the barcode on the bottle with the Homeplus app and the goods to be ordered
home or office.74
Figure 12: Homeplus virtual supermarket
Source: taken from: jmango.net, as of 21.05.2013
Source: taken from: jmango.net, as of 21.05.2013.
The discounters are forced to adapt to the rapidly changing consumer habits, said
Homeplus CEO Lee Seunghan. The new Virtual Store is the response to the
explosively growing number of smartphone users in Korea. And the development of
sales is rising at Homeplus. By March 2012 Homeplus has more than 650.000
customers and the company made about USD 27 million revenues per week. This
means that on average each customer spends USD 41 per week at Tesco or
Homeplus.75
74
75
Cp. internetworld.de, as of 21.05.2013.
Cp. internetworld.de, as of 21.05.2013.
28
5. Aging society and its impacts on CEP industry
Transport and logistics industry is not only a crucial factor in global competition and
ensures mobility of goods and people. These industries are also dynamic and
disproportionately growing future markets with a high and growing demand for
skilled workers, which also offers young people attractive future opportunities.
Despite this positive outlook, the lack of skilled labour in the industry is already
being felt and will continue to intensify. The transport companies feel threats to
their future business in particular by the continuing shortage of drivers. The
reasons for the lack of skilled labour are varied. One main reason for this is that in
addition to general demographic development, the profession of professional driver
often has to struggle with a negative image, as shown below. Another reason is the
Federal Armed Forces or Bundeswehr in Germany was a great training facility for
professional drivers - since conscription was abolished, the army develops
significantly less professional drivers.76
The professional drivers represent the LSPs or transport companies, due to they
often maintain the first and direct contact with the customer. The drivers and their
vehicles are the hallmarks of a transport company. Therefore, skills of drivers are
essential for a company - they should be reliable, but also bring the ability to work
in teams, commitment and a strong sense of responsibility are also necessary.
Unfortunately on the other hand, working conditions are still often unattractive for
drivers, such as the ongoing pressure of time and overcrowded parking lots, which
complicates to keep the rest periods. In addition, companies need to solve the
problem of succession, offer meaningful concepts that allow a better balance
between work and family.77
5.1. Job requirements of CEP drivers
The distinction between the services at CEP companies relates to the type and
weight of the shipment, the delivery-time of transport as well as the price structure.
It is the transportation of shipments with a relatively low weight (usually up to 30 kg)
and volumes, such as letters, documents, parcels and small cargo.
78
Standardisation in the settlement as well as a partially automated handling and
76
77
78
Cp. Schwarz, K. (2004), p. 17.
29
sorting of items is based on the restrictions due to size and weight. This is the
background for a reliable and prompt time transportation (24-hour, 48-hour service,
same-day or over-night delivery) of transport objects through CEP service.79 A CEP
company characterises the quality of service by an individual customer service in
terms of speed, punctuality and reliability. 80 Therefore it is necessary, that CEP
drivers provide a vital service in the business community by delivering shipments
on deadline schedules. Many CEP drivers are hired by so called sub-driver
companies, meaning they make deliveries on behalf of a number of CEP
companies, like UPS, DHL, Hermes, etc.81
The job announcements for CEP drivers, of companies like DP DHL, UPS and GO!
have generally similar requirements for candidates. A comparison of job vacancies
in agencies like jobboerse.arbeitsagentur.de, backinjob.de and a study of inter alia
Dirk Roesler at the Institute of Ergonomics in Aachen, has revealed the following
summary:
Driver’s licenses:


Mandatory is a valid driver’s license class B for cars and minibus
Desirable is a valid driver's license C1 for light trucks
Languages spoken:


Mandatory are very good skills in German language
Desirable are skills in English language
Personal strengths:


Physical Fitness (no difficulty lifting and carrying Packages up to 35 kg)
Enjoy working with people
Further requirements:

Certificate of good conduct (no entries)
The drivers of the express and courier/sameday sector have the following
additional requirements:
Licenses and permissions:


79
Mandatory is a qualification for dangerous goods for cargo (ADR)
Desirable is a qualification for IATA-DGR, PK4 (shipping personnel, cargo)82
Cp. wirtschaftslexikon.gabler.de, as of 21.04.2013.
Cp. Arnold, D. et al. (2008), p. 782.
81
Cp. ehow.com, as of 21.04.2013.
82
Cp. Roesler, D. et al (2003), p. 8; jobboerse.arbeitsagentur.de, as of 22.04.2013; backinjob.de, as of 21.04.2013;
iaw.rwth-aachen.de, as of 10.05.2013.
80
30
In comparison to CEP drivers, the job of a professional driver is a recognized
profession since 1974. By 2001, the apprenticeship lasted 2 years. Increased
demands on the drivers and the modernisation of the educational content required
an extension of the training period to 3 years. Today aspiring professional drivers
learn vehicle technology, to plan trips, to take advantage of modern information and
communication technologies, to secure the load and to conduct promotions in an
economical, safe and responsible manner.83
5.2. Skills Shortage within CEP sector
As outlined above the requirements for CEP drivers compared to professional
drivers are lower. Like many other industries, the CEP industry has also increasing
difficulties to recruit qualified staff, and to occupy vacancies seamlessly. The need
for qualified drivers is high, stated the Expert, Dr. Heiko von der Gracht in the
Expert interview. Therefore companies recruit drivers on motorway service stations.
Logistic companies are offering attractive jobs and drivers are being poached by
other carriers. 84 In the magazine of VerkehrsRundschau is reported that it is most
difficult for CEP companies to fill the vacancies of drivers. The influences of
demographic changes are huge. Additionally, this situation was reinforced by
negative headlines in the press. It was reported that the CEP driver would have to
accept low salaries, long working hours as well negative health influence due to
overworking. As is common in the industry, sub-contractors are used frequently these are some small businesses that cannot pay high salaries. It was also
confirmed by Andrea Moeckel of partner4logistics that the CEP companies will
have the biggest bottlenecks with their drivers. Already, companies could not utilise
their transport capacity due to lack of drivers.85
83
84
85
Cp. bgl-ev.de, as of 10.05.2013.
Cp. Expert interview (Appendix 1), p. 50-53.
Cp. Verkehrsrundschau (2012), p. 22 ff.
31
6. Approach to improve drivers job profile
In a study by Hays, respondents rated the topic of Employee Retention or
Employer Branding. The results are clear, a good working atmosphere was rated
as important by 93 % of respondents, followed by the market related payment and
the reputation of the employer. Development programes and career prospects
seem to be a clear focus especially for the younger generation (age between 20 to
29 years). 86 Due to the fact, that the study of Hays is focused on academic
employees and on how to create employee loyalty for high-qualified employees or
potentials regarding the topic ‘war of talents’, the results of the study are not
representable for CEP drivers. 87 Therefore, an interview with Logistics Experts
gives further views to questions dealing with risks and threats for the CEP industry
through demographic changes in addition to analyse the main lever to improve the
job profile.
6.1. Motivational factors - hard and soft methods
Experts within the industry stated, that due to the high physical stress in this
profession, the job profile is not very attractive. The profession of drivers can be
made more attractive, for example by an ergonomic design of the cabs. There are
technological developments, such as the driver's seats, which have a massage
function. This technology can be used for prevention of disc herniation. Therefore,
the implementation of such actions is an important aspect to relieve the physical
stress. 88 In addition, the topic comes up, that the job is very stressful. Many
applicants do not want to risk losing their driver’s license. Due to the fact, time
pressure in this job is very high because they are encouraged to deliver the
shipments of the customers in time.89 In chapter 7, technological innovations, last
mile solutions and future trends are analysed, dealing inter alia with the
optimisation of problems such as the pressure of time.
On the other hand hard facts like attractive salaries are an important issue. If the
availability of drivers is lower than the demand the market will regulate the
adjustment of lower driver salaries. Companies will compete with each other,
through attractive workplace as well as higher salaries, stated the logistics future
86
Cp. Rump, J. et al (2012), p. 20 f.
Cp. Rump, J. et al (2012), p. 23.
88
89
Cp. Expert interview (Appendix 2), p. 57.
87
32
scientist Heiko von der Gracht.90 “It is very difficult to recruit drivers.”91 stated the
Expert, a LSP subcontractor. The financial conditions are an important factor,
because an unemployed person usually earns slightly less than one CEP driver.
The salaries of CEP drivers at a LSP sub-contractor start by approximately 1500
Euro per month for a working time of approximately 10 hours per day. Therefore,
many applicants note during the interview that they did not want to have this job. A
driver who is under contract with a LSP of the package sector, earns about 2000
Euro per month.92 Higher wages is an important motivational factor. Furthermore, it
could be a way to make the image and job profile more attractive of a CEP driver.93
6.2. Knowledge transfer through trainings
Another aspect is that companies invest in employee development and trainings,
thus providing higher employee retention. Training and education is an important
and crucial tool to create employee loyalty. CEP companies are building reinforced
training programs. However, it is essential that the employers pay the costs for the
professional development.94
Basic trainings like induction and handling of dangerous goods are really necessary
and useful for drivers, stated a subcontractor. Due to the fact, that a driver has
usually no support during their induction phase. Management of time pressure is
usually a problem for a new driver during the induction phase. The bottleneck of
resources leads to the fact, that most of the sub-contractors do not have the time,
to train their drivers during the induction phase, therefore the subcontractor would
really appreciate to get induction training for his new drivers which is organised by
the LSP centrally. 95
Trainings dealing with the topic of sustainability through new technologies, new
drives and electric mobility are one aspect. These matters are important in terms of
that logistics is sustainable and through driver training low emissions can be
reached. Furthermore value adding training courses are in the health sector and
90
Anonymous - Expert interview (Appendix 2) p. 57.
92
93
94
95
91
33
driving safety courses. Courses that deal with the prevention, that is as the driver
can drive relief.96
96
34
7. Last mile solutions, future trends and innovations
It is estimated that freight transport will increase by up to 64 % by 2015.97 In order
to accomplish the growth and the impact of demographic changes like skills
shortages within the CEP industry, optimal solutions for the last mile have a
decisive importance.
7.1. PUDO-Concept
The pick-up point and drop-off point concept (PUDO concept), is considered by the
CEP service as a package store. A package store serves not only as a delivery
point for packages from private persons, but can also be specified as a delivery
address from different consumers. To build no separate branch network, the CEP
service providers have established a shop-in-shop system, which will save the cost
of its own stores. For this purpose, in addition to the fixed costs such as rent or
lease and staff include variable costs such as energy costs. By fixed opening times
of the shops this package can be delivered efficiently, so that a part of the last mile
and the associated costs can be bundled in a package to the end consumer shop.
This can be done almost around the clock, however, depends on whether it is a
gas station or a kiosk at the package store.98
The PUDO concept has proven as successful through the huge network as well as
fast access. However, with the technological development and the combination of
the Internet, smartphones, and the intelligent network systems produced many
innovative ways that offer customers even more flexibility. One of these is the
‘Packstation’.
7.2. Packstation
The Packstation concept is used by the Group DP DHL in Germany. It is
considered an extension of the concept PUDO - the packing station is automated in
comparison to the PUDO concept. This concept has already been available in East
Germany, where it had not yet been engineered. In Figure 13 is shown a GDR
package delivery system.99
The DP DHL Packstation offered - see Figure 14 - is a shifting device for packages
97
98
99
Cp. Lüken, M. (2008), p. 3.
Cp. dhl-discoverlogistics.com, as of 02.06.2013.
Cp. ploync.de, as of 02.06.2013.
35
and is available in many cities throughout Germany, with more than 2500
machines.100
Packstation serves as a postbox for packages. In order to grant customers
comprehensive coverage and accessibility, these stations are put up at prominent
and public spaces (such as train stations or in the city centre). Thereby, the
customer is able to flexibly choose the pick up time within 24 hours and is no longer
dependent on opening hours of Deutsche Post branches. Moreover, the recepient
can choose to have his package delivered to a Packstation directly. Upon arrival of
the package at Packstation, the recipient is advised via text message and can now
pick up the package within nine days indicating his personal PIN.101
Figure 13: GDR Packstation
Source: taken from: ploync.de, as of 02.06.2013.
Source: taken from: polync.de, as of 02.06.2013.
100
101
Cp. dp-dhl.com, as of 02.06.2013.
Cp. DP DHL (2012), p. 9 ff.
36
Figure 14: Packstation
Source: taken from: www.dp-dhl.com, Stand: 02.06.2013.
Source: taken from: www.dp-dhl.com, as of 02.06.2013.
Packstation requires very little handling by the parcel service. The last mile is
basically shifted on the customer and is thus saving a major part of the costs.102
7.3. Tower 24
Apart from Packstation, another system has been launched in 2002 as a project for
Logistics; Tower 24 was developed by Frauenhofer Institute for Material Flow and
Logistics.103
Tower 24 is a building with a diameter of 4 metres and about 10 metres of total
height of which approximately 4 metres can be implemented below soil surface.
The Tower offers areas for various temperature ranges as well as a fresh produce
(2 – 7 degrees Celsius) and a refrigerated area (-18 degrees Celsuis).104
The Tower can store 300 standard containers measuring 600 x 400 mm surface
area or 600 IBCs (intermediate bulk containers) measuring 300 x 400 mm surface
102
103
104
Cp. dhl-discoverlogistics.com, as of 02.06.2013.
Cp. logistics.de, as of 04.05.2012.
Cp. Wannenwetsch, H. (2005), p. 323 ff.
37
area. A centrally located two-pillar rack feeder stores and removes storage with the
help of a floor-based revolving table. Such enables the combination of storing
goods and removing them ,i.e. delivery and collection of goods can take place
simultaneously.105
The system’s great advantage is its ability to store a great many products
temporarily. Hence, CEP service providers can also deliver sensitive foods to
Tower 24. Further advantages:106

merely 20 % of space of regular packing station needed

cost savings due to clustered commodity flows

delivery three times faster compared with Packstation

delivery of 200 containers feasible within 20 minutes

customers can pick up containers within 30 seconds

24 hour service

cleaning of equipment can be done automatically

non-cash payment by means of cash card107
Tower 24 is thus an add-on to Packstation used by Deutsche Post DHL as its
technical equipment allows for a greater coverage in order to meet their customers’
requirements.108
7.4. CargoCap - underground transportation pipelines
The pneumatic delivery comes back in a new form. A group of scientists at the
Ruhr-University Bochum, plans to relocate to urban areas the transport of goods
into the ground. They call it the 5th transport alternative to road, rail, water and air.
For this, the company CargoCap GmbH was founded in 2002 based in Bochum.
CargoCap GmbH is working on the development of the underground freight
transport in particular in urban areas. For the underground transport of goods within
capsules, no driver is needed. The company is convinced of the enormous future
105
Cp. Wannenwetsch, H. (2005), p. 324 ff.
107
108
106
38
potential of this transport system and is responsible for the development and
planning, marketing and sales as well as construction and operation. The transport
of goods in urban areas, is to be realised through underground pipes with the help
of individual smart capsules irrespective of aboveground traffic congestion and
weather conditions.109
The conventional systems of road, rail, air and water are extended by CargoCap.
This system is a safe and economical way to carry goods quickly and on time in
congested urban areas by underground transportation pipelines – and no driver is
needed. Prof. Dr. Ing. Dietrich Stein is leader of this innovative concept and
CargoCap is the outcome of the interdisciplinary collaboration in research and
development at the Ruhr University of Bochum. In addition it is supported by the
current Ministry of Innovation, Science, Research and Technology of the State of
North Rhine-Westphalia.110
The capsules are designed for the transport of two Euro pallets – see figure below,
which represents the majority of the general inner-European cargo transportation,
and can pass through pipelines with a diameter of only 2.0 m.111
Figure 15: CargoCap
Source: taken from cargocap.de, as of 23.06.2013.
Source: taken from: www.cargocap.de, as of 23.06.2013.
In the Federal Republic of Germany road traffic meanwhile reached its limits. It
occurred to serious traffic jams and delays. The costs resulting from these
problems reach about 100 billion Euro per year. This situation will take far more
109
110
111
Cp. cargocap.de, as of 23.06.2013.
Cp. industrieanzeiger.de, as of 07.04.2013.
Cp. Stein, D. et al (2010) p. 504 ff.
39
dramatic forms in the coming years. By 2020, the road transport will nearly double,
compared to 1997.112
Driving through the underground pipelines CargoCap is independent, unaffected
and uninfluenced by other modes of transport, roads and traffic jams. The transport
speed of 36 km / h at a constant flow of transport leads to a reduction of transport
time compared to the truck in the metropolitan area. In operation CargoCap neither
affects the environment of noise and exhaust gases and particulate matter. By
using renewable energy, there are no CO2 emissions.113
The concept of CargoCap is an intelligent, computer-controlled transport system,
which is also considered environmentally friendly, fast, flexible and cost effective. It
pays off when customers and companies get their goods delivered on time. The
material flow is not slowed down by traffic jams, red lights or accidents. If the
transport system CargoCap is developed and rolled out, the goods may arrive on
time at the destination. CargoCap is the logical continuation of process optimisation
between e-commerce and logistics. Supplier and the customer can be informed
about the current location of the goods. With increasing pressure on costs in the
transport sector, in the metropolitan area CargoCap is the low cost alternative,
which also delivers a benefit for carriers.114
The expected increase in freight volume and the challenges for the development of
roads in urban areas lead to even more traffic jams. The resulting increased
unpredictability of transport leads to rising transportation costs, which are partly
reflected in the freight rates. This could speak for the efficiency of CargoCap. 115
In contrast to classical investments, the establishment of networks are leading to
an increase of returns to scale. The expansion of the networks leads to
disproportionate benefits, resulting in an inherent power growth (this effect was
also given on the railroad, the telephone or the Internet). Significant here is that at
the beginning, it must be reached a minimum network size that allows these
positive effects.
CargoCap is not designed only for North Rhine-Westphalia. The relevant public
issues prevail in many other German and foreign population centres. It also meets
112
Cp. Stein, D. et al (2010) p. 504 ff.; cargocap.de, as of 23.06.2013.
Cp. Brill, S. (2013), p. 1.
114
115
113
40
the requirements of sustainability, which will also be of growing importance in
private investment in the future.
In Germany, the enforcement of good ideas often fails for legal reasons. CargoCap
is an infrastructure project with relatively low potential of legal conflict. As this is
neither a road project, nor a rail project or a power line and not a pipeline, engages
none of the existing professional legal zoning requirements. This means that
neither the consequences nor the complex process demanding substantive criteria
of specialist planning law must be observed. Rather, only the general space or
construction planning and building regulations as well as environmental legal
framework is to be observed. The infrastructure project stands from a legal point of
view not only as an idea, but also by its enforceability. CargoCap supports climate
protection and energy efficiency legislation on all levels, global (post-Kyoto
processes), Europe-wide in the levels of the 20-20-20 climate change strategy in
2020 and the federal government, the states and municipalities. Thus, it can be
assumed under the given legal situation on the one hand the implementation of the
project are no insurmountable legal obstacles in the way and on the other hand is
already sufficient legal design options are available, the one with the interests of all
stakeholders / investors justice to the construction and operation of CargoCap pilot
line (‘Ruhr Street’) permit.116
All in all, this innovative system is a development with many advantages. "The
company CargoCap has developed an innovative and fascinating transport system.
The challenge is the system to test in practice,"117 said Michael Theurer, Chairman
of the Committee on Budgetary Control and deputy chairman of the FDP in the
European Parliament, on his visit to the CargoCap GmbH on 6 June 2013 in
Bochum.118
However, the implementation of this concept is difficult without the help of the
government. In 2012 CargoCap has presented its concept at the European
Commission in Brussels. To date, there had been no feedback given by the
Directorate General for Energy and Transport. 119
116
Cp. Stein, D. et al (2010) p. 504 ff.
Theurer, M. - fdpbochum.de, as of 06.07.2013.
118
Cp. fdpbochum.de, as of 06.07.2013.
119
Cp. fdpbochum.de, as of 06.07.2013.
117
41
"Unfortunately, Germany is struggling to implement innovative technologies" 120 said
Michael Theurer. CargoCap would be an example that innovative solutions were
developed but not implemented in practice in Germany. Another reason could be
that CargoCap is not used in the first step on the short distances, thus below the
‘Ruhrgebiet’. Rather if in the first step, the long distances are opening up. This
means that all regions are connected with stations and would cover costs and
nationwide. The last mile problem could also be solved. The points where goods be
handled, could be developed with intermodal terminals including CargoCap
connection. This could be port facilities, where many goods are delivered, such as
Hamburg, Bremen and Duisburg. For example, it could be built a line from
Hamburg to Duisburg in the ‘Ruhrgebiet’. This would result in an optimisation of
traffic from Hamburg to Duisburg. And from those key points could be expand the
network.121
7.5. Self-driving cars or autonomous vehicle systems
Until today it is not possible to replace the human driver. Although the technologies
are developed for this step, support systems are only used once on the road, such
as Driver assistance systems for braking, track and distance control. The
installation of these systems is already mandatory in vehicles carrying dangerous
goods.122
However, the technology continues to advance. Autonomous vehicle systems are
now being developed not only by Google, rather by almost all automotive
manufacturers and the major automotive suppliers such as Bosch and
Continental.123
In May 2012 the U.S. state of Nevada confirmed the law for permitting operation of
self-driving or autonomous cars. As of April 2012, Florida became the second state
to allow the testing of autonomous cars on public roads. 124 Afterwards, the
governor of California, Jerry Brown, signed in September 2012 the law that selfdriving cars are allowed to drive on the roads. The law defines the security
standards for computer-controlled vehicles. "Autonomous vehicles are another
example of how the technological leadership of California transferred the science
120
Theurer, M. - fdbbochum.de, as of 06.07.2013.
Cp. Bioly, S. (2009), p. 77-78.
122
Cp. zukunft-mobilitaet.net, as of 01.05.2013.
123
124
Cp. wptv.com, as of 09.07.2013.
121
42
fiction ideas of today into tomorrow's reality," 125 Brown said at the company's
campus of the Internet company Google in Mountain View. In the American states
of Nevada and Florida the self-driving cars were approved for road traffic. California
law SB1298 defines the security standards to be met by autonomous vehicles for
road use. Previous tests could be carried out with special permits on public roads.
Certain regulations must be met.
Nevada, for example: It must have been completed before the application for
admission for a regular street legal test at least 10,000 miles or more than
16,000 km. The technology of autonomous driving has to be described as well as
the safety concept and the education of test drivers.126 Prior to the signing of the
Act Brown had taken a test drive on the Googleplex in a autonomously moving car
developed by Google. "Self-driving cars can change lives as well as cities and
towns,"127 said Google co-founder Sergey Brin, who drives the project at Google. In
the future, people could partake in traffic that previously could not. Moreover, traffic
safety can be increased and jams can be avoided.128
It is a matter of time, until self-driving cars will be used in daily traffic. However,
many questions still need to be clarified. Questions such as insurance issues or as
they are integrated with 20 to 30-year-old cars that require the human touch still on
the road, and how to produce at an affordable price. The clarification of these
issues still requires a lot of time.129 In addition the legal situation is an important
aspect as well. Fully autonomous vehicles are allowed (StVO § 46 and § 70
German StVZO) are approved for international law in Germany exclusively as test
vehicles. A normal approval shall require a change in law that may be decided not
only by the national legislature, but rather need new international agreements. The
problem affects not only Germany but all the European countries, since these
schemes are held mainly in Europe with EU Directives and ECE Regulations.130
125
Brown, J. (2013), p. 24.
127
Brin, S. – faz.net, as of 14.07.2013.
128
Cp. faz.de, as of 09.07.2013.
129
Cp. wptv.com, as of 09.07.2013.
130
Cp. Lutz, L. et al (2013), p. 10.
126
43
8. Conclusion and critical discussion
8.1. Conclusion
In the theoretical part of the thesis, the term demographic change is defined and
the causes of an aging society are being discussed.131
The following section analyses the situation in Germany and on the basis of
statistical numbers the evolution of the country’s birth rate by 2060 is shown.132 The
change in the population structure and the impact of an aging society on the age
structure of workers is illustrated with the of forecasts from the Federal Statistical
Office.133 It becomes clear that there will be an increase in the age group 50 to 65
years of 9% between 2008 until 2024.
The international comparison between Germany and other countries confirms the
negative trend in the birth rate. Furthermore, it shows that Germany is among the
countries with the lowest birth rate. 134
The demographic changes and the aging society is also evident in terms of
urbanisation. Many people will leave rural areas and move to major cities mainly
because of better infrastructure for older people and thus short distances.135
Another aspect is the shortage of skilled labour, which plays an important role in
this issue. This and the causes of skills shortage are discussed in the theoretical
part of the definitional basis.136 The shortage of skilled labour is reinforced by the
demographic change. The reason for this is firstly, aging society and secondly, the
lack of skilled workers due to decreasing birth rates. By eliminating the military
service the number of professional truck drivers has been lowered as well.
However, the demand for drivers within the logistics industry is growing as the
industry continues to grow in recent years. The CEP industry is growing inter alia
by the e-commerce. In addition, the CEP companies seek new growth markets,
such as the e-food sector. Here, drivers are required to deliver the items to the
customer. Due to urbanisation, the demands are growing within the cities, and the
solutions for the last mile will be more important. As automating for example by
131
Cp. foerderland.de, as of 12.12.2012; Van de Kaa, D. (2002), p. 1.
133
134
135
Cp. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, (2006), p. 9 ff.
136
Cp. Richardson, R., Henson, H., Lavoie, C. (1996), p. 32.
132
44
Tower24 or Packstation helps to optimise the cost of the last mile and the shortage
of drivers.
The next chapter discusses the costs of demographic change. Companies in
Germany have to prepare for situations that an aging society, the lack of skilled
workers and its impact on the availibility of staff resources.
On one hand, the solutions such as CargoCap must be actually implemented and
expanded in order to optimise the automation and simplify processes. On the other
hand, there are costs also reflected by the skills shortage. If companies cannot fill
their vacancies, such will have an effect on orders and eventually on turnover.137
Furthermore, the existing resources must be used effectively. Just as the
subcontractor reports from practice within the Expert interview, it is very difficult if a
lack of resources is given and if no time can be invested in trainings a new
employee. This deficiency may have the consequence that a new employee feels
overwhelmed. And may not have the knowledge to properly fulfill its task. This can
also lower the employee loyalty to the company. If the retention is not guaranteed,
it may have an impact on staff turnover and in turn costs arise for the recruitment of
a new employee.138 A number of negative effects can thus be triggered.
The aging population also means that employees retire. This chapter shows an
example in a table, which demonstrates the development of the ages 16 to 67
years in 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025. Here was considered a constant turnover rate
and an equal number of new hires. The result showed that by 2025 approximately
100 employees in addition to the normal staff turnover would retire. 139
Chapter 4 kicks off with an explanation of logistics’ role within organisations.
Furthermore, the top 10 LSPs (measured in revenues, in Germany in 2011) are
shown in a graph. This graph sets out clearly DPDHL is one of the largest service
providers in Germany.140
Further, the business model of CEP services is discussed, divided into Courier,
Express and Parcel Service.141 The CEP service providers had a constant growth
137
Cp. Zander, G. (2011), p. 1
Cp. Zander, G. (2011), p. 2; Expert interview (Appendix 2), p. 59 ff.
139
Cp. Zander, G. (2011), p. 4.
140
Cp. Fraunhofer SCS, (2012), p. 9.
141
138
45
in the past - from 2000 to 2012 there was a growth of approximately 55 %. 142
Among CEP service providers, DHL has the largest market share with 23 %,
followed by Hermes at 19 %, and 18 % with DPD.143
This growth is still largely driven by e-commerce. The e-commerce has increased
by 825 % between 1974 and 2007. 144 Amazon.de is one of the largest service
providers, which also benefit the parcel service such as DHL. 145 Conversely
amazon.de is dependent on the shipments ordered by customers being delivered
usually within 48 hours. The success of amazon.de could not be guaranteed
without the services of a CEP service and CEP drivers. In this area, the automation
process is particularly important, on one hand to control the lack of drivers and on
the other hand to optimise the costs of the last mile.
CEP service providers are also trying to develop new markets such as the e-food
sector. This trend has not yet established itself in Germany, since the price war
between the trading companies in Germany is still strong – unlike France and UK.
However, Homeplus is an example of what has proved to be very good in South
Korea. In Germany, this trend is slowly progressing. The ability to order food online
is given - such as Allyouneed.com. However, one should also keep in mind the lack
of drivers within the CEP industry.146 Therefore, delivering and processing orders
as swiftly and broadly as in South Korea won’t be feasible.
Chapter 5 deals with the impact of an aging society within the CEP industry. It
starts with the strong growth in the industry and the risk that in the future not
enough drivers will be available. One of the major influencing factors is the lack of
drivers due to the elimination of conscription. On top of that, drivers don’t have a
good professional image.147 However, a driver represents a company as they are in
direct contact with the customer upon delivery of the shipments. Furthermore, the
job requirements of a CEP driver are compared with various job advertisements
and presented in a summary.148 A number of different media reported that the CEP
industry will have a major suffering due to demographic change. Salaries of CEP
142
Cp. BIEK e.V. (2013), p. 10-11.
Cp. statista.com, as of 24.03.2013.
144
Cp. statist.com, as of 31.03.2013.
145
Cp. statista.com, as of 31.03.2013.
146
Cp. Waschun, M., Rühle, J. (2012), p. 2 ff.; Expert interview (Appendix 2), p. 57.
147
Cp. Verkehrsrundschau.de, as of 25.04.2013.
148
Cp. Roesler, D. et al (2003), p. 8; jobboerse.arbeitsagentur.de, as of 22.04.2013; backinjob.de, as of 21.04.2013;
iaw.rwth-aachen.de, as of 10.05.2013.
143
46
drivers are too low, the working hours are very long and the working conditions are
very hard.149
In Chapter 6, the factors are brought together that make the job of a driver more
attractive. The motivation factors are divided into hard and soft methods. Soft facts
fall under the framework to optimise the physical stress. Ergonomic seats that also
have massage functions, making driving more pleasant and it is gentler on the
back. On the other hand, hard facts like attractive salaries are very important. If the
demand for CEP driver continues to rise and the offer is low, the market will also
regulate the salaries.150
Furthermore, the education of employees is also analysed. Investments such as
trainings are an appreciation of the employees. It begins with the adjustment to a
new job of a CEP driver and the knowledge transfer in handling with dangerous
goods. These basic trainings are important for a new employee feels comfortable in
the company. Additional training as environmentally friendly driving is an added
value for both companies and for our environment. In general it can be said that
trainings bring an added value for both companies and employees. 151
Chapter 7 indicates last mile solutions, future trends and technological innovation.
PUDO Concept and Packstation have vastly optimised the last mile. The drivers
can now deliver shipments irrespective of the receiver’s presence (provided that,
the receiver allows deliver the shipment to a Packstation). Furthermore, the driver
can deliver several packages to one Packstation. This leads to an optimisation of
the route, time of delivery and the delivery rate.
Tower24 is a model, which would also be well suited for the delivery of e-food
shipments due to the fact, that goods can be stored up to a temparature of -18
degrees Celsius.
152
Unfortunately, the concept has not yet been enforced.
However, the technological conditions are given if e-food would start to boom in
Germany (as in South Korea). Companies could then ensure order completion
despite the shortage of drivers.
The concept of CargoCap is a technological development, which would harmonise
inter alia the traffic situation on the highways. This development would also have a
149
Cp. Verkehrsrundschau (2012), p. 22 ff.
151
Cp. Expert interview (Appendix 1), p. 54 ff.; Expert interview (Appendix 2), p. 60 ff.
152
150
47
positive impact on CO2 emissions.153 Unfortunately, this model has not yet been
put into practice as well.
Another concept, which is an innovation for the future are self-driving cars. This
model is already being tested on the roads in four states of the USA. This
innovation would improve in many ways the subject of lack of drivers for the benefit
of the company.154 Furthermore, this model can also support the driver very well by
the use of the autopilot. However, it is not suitable for the practice, as well as the
legal conditions and disclaimers need to be clarified.155
8.2. Critical discussion
The objective of this study was to analyse the impact and consequences of
demographic change on the logistics industry and especially the CEP industry in
particular. Issues have been discussed in order to identify the risks or threats and
opportunities presented by the skill shortages, especially in the CEP sector.
Costs emerging from demographic change for the companies are considered a
risk. The skills shortage will cause a significant part of the costs. The aging
population will cause downtime and costs due to higher costs through early
retirement solutions. The recruitment of new employees will be more difficult due to
the lack of skilled workers. This statement was confirmed in an interview with
experts on the current state.156 The vacancies increase the shortage of resources,
as existing employees have to edit the open positions. Ultimately, productivity
suffers from the lack of skilled workers.
The e-commerce trend is still a great opportunity for the CEP industry. It is
confirmed that e-commerce for the CEP industry is a driver of growth. Furthermore,
the e-commerce enables entering other growth markets, such as s the food sector
in Germany. However, the skills shortage is a threat as drivers are essential for the
fulfillment of the order. New technologies such as Tower24 are in turn opportunities
for the industry. But these would need to be further developed in practice.
The impact of skills shortage on the logistics industry has been analysed as a
central subject. Confirmed the risk of a shortage of drivers, since compulsory
153
Cp. Stein, D. et al (2010), p. 504 ff.
Cp. faz.de, as of 09.07.2013.
155
Cp. Lutz, L. et al (2013), p. 10.
156
154
48
military service is abolished and thus less educated drivers. Furthermore, the threat
was confirmed in an expert interview (by the driver and sub-contractors) that it is
increasingly difficult to recruit drivers. Here, the unattractive image of the CEP
driver’s job profiles plays an essential role. The reasons are low salaries, long
working hours and hard working conditions.
The improvement of the job profile is an opportunity for the logistics industry. This
can be improved, as already mentioned several time, by adjustments of the
salaries and appreciation of the job profile by better trained drivers. Furthermore,
there are technological developments, such as ergonomic seats that optimise the
physical strain. These factors would also lead to an increase of employee loyalty
and a lower the turnover rate.
Finally, it has been confirmed that the technological developments and innovations
are an opportunity for the industry. The concepts PUDO, Packstation and Tower24
directly influence the process and cost optimisation for the last mile. By CargoCap
and self-driving cars, the threat of increasing shortage of drivers can be influenced
directly and positively.
49
Appendix
Appendix 1: Expert Interview
Name:
Dr. Heiko von der Gracht
Company:
EBS Business School
Address:
Konrad-Adenauer-Ring 15, 65187 Wiesbaden
Position:
Director Institute for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management (IFK)
Date:
Personal interview by phone, 15.05.2013
Hypothese:
Die Entwicklung des Berufsbildes eines KEP-Fahrers bis zum Jahr 2025.
Wie wird sich das Berufsbild entwickeln?
Hintergrund:
Der Fachkräftemangel der aus dem demographischen Wandel resultiert, ist laut
zahlreichen Zukunftsprognosen nach zu urteilen, im Kommen.
In diesem Zusammenhang ist der jährlich steigende e-commerce Sektor innerhalb
der Konsumgüterbranche sowie der gegenläufige Trend des Fahrermangels ein
wichtiger Aspekt.
Weiterhin versuchen führende Unternehmen wie DP DHL auch in anderen
Bereichen, wie beispielsweise dem e-food Sektor zu wachsen, und arbeiten an
innovativen Lösungen um den Markt auch hier zu erschließen.
Jedoch sind für die Auslieferungen der Sendungen KEP Fahrer notwendig. Der
demografische Wandel kann auch die KEP Branche an einer der essentiell
wichtigsten Punkte berühren - den Fahrern - durch den bevorstehenden Mangel an
Fahrern. Wie bewerten Experten diese Prognosen.
50
1. Frage: Betrachten wir die Praxis; wie bewerten Sie die Situation
hinsichtlich des Fahrermangels innerhalb der KEP Branche?
Antwort: Den erwähnten Hintergrund würde ich genauso unterschreiben. Der
demographische Wandel betrifft nicht nur die KEP Branche, sondern alle Branchen
werden sich in der Zukunft mit dem Thema beschäftigen qualifizierte Fach- und
Führungskräfte zu rekrutieren und zu halten – dies schließt natürlich auch KEPund Berufskraftfahrer ein. Es ist tatsächlich so, dass ich in Gesprächen mit
Spediteuren und Führungskräften innerhalb der Logistik Branche auch schon
gehört habe, dass Fahrer auf Rastplätzen abgeworben werden. Dass Fahrern
attraktive Angebote unterbreitet werden und von anderen Spediteuren abgeworben
werden.
Das sind ja schon Anzeichen, dass sich hier ein Trend abzeichnet und man an der
Attraktivität des Berufsbildes innerhalb der Branche arbeiten sollte. Unter
Attraktivität verstehe ich unter anderem eine ergonomische Gestaltung der
Fahrerhäuser. Hier gibt es technologische Entwicklungen, beispielsweise durch
Fahrersitze die eine Massagefunktion haben,
was zur Vorbeugung von
Bandscheibenvorfällen dienen kann. Der Trend innerhalb der Logistik Branche ist
da und das wird sich in den nächsten Jahren auch verschärfen.
In den letzten 15 Jahren hat sich die Geburtenrate in Deutschland halbiert. Allein
von 2010 auf 2011 gab es 15.000 Geburten weniger – das heißt auch, dass wir auf
eine alternde Gesellschaft zusteuern, in der sich auch Berufsbilder in der Zukunft
ändern müssen und auch werden.
2. Frage: In der Regel werden KEP Fahrer von Sub-Unternehmern rekrutiert
und beschäftigt. Wie lange ist Ihrer Meinung nach die durchschnittliche
Beschäftigungsdauer eines KEP-Fahrers?
Antwort: Aus Sicht eines Wissenschaftlers kann ich hierzu nichts Konkretes
sagen. Hierzu haben wir auch keine Befragung durchgeführt. Das können
Fachkräfte aus der Branche sicherlich besser beurteilen.
3. Frage: Ein weiterer Aspekt, bedingt durch den demografischen Wandel,
sind die finanziellen Folgen des Personalmangels. “...Unternehmen müssen
51
verstärkte Ressourcen in die Mitarbeitersuche stecken und bei der
zunehmenden Anzahl älterer Arbeitnehmer mit erhöhten Aufwendungen für
krankheitsbedingte Fehlzeiten, höheren Urlaubsanspruch oder bestehende
Vorruhestandsregelungen rechnen.“157 Wie bewerten Sie diese Aussage im
Hinblick auf KEP-Fahrer? Inwieweit stellt dies ein Risiko für KEP
Unternehmen dar?
Antwort: Ich unterschreibe diese Aussage voll. Dadurch, dass die Wehrpflicht nicht
mehr gegeben ist, ist die Anzahl der Ausbildung von LKW Fahrern durch die
Bundeswehr deutlich gesunken. Das ist der eine Druck, der die Branche
beschäftigt.
Auf der anderen Seite steigen auch die Anforderungen. Sicherheitsregeln wie zum
Beispiel die Regularien hinsichtlich Lenkzeiten haben sich verschärft. Es gibt eine
Vielzahl an Faktoren, die auf diese Branche einwirken und dementsprechend das
gesamte Wettbewerbsumfeld verstärken.
Zur
Arbeitsplatzgestaltung
und
Rekrutierung
–
auch
die
Marke
eines
Unternehmens wird eine größere Rolle im Bewerbungsprozess spielen. Es gibt ja
das Schlagwort Employer Branding. Es ist also nicht nur das Umfeld, sondern auch
die Marke des Unternehmens und entsprechende Gesundheitsprogramme sind
entscheidend. Auch die Punkte die eben genannt wurden, sind Themen mit denen
sich Unternehmen in der Zukunft beschäftigen müssen.
Wir arbeiten mit einer Vielzahl von Logistikunternehmen zusammen, und bei
mittelständischen Unternehmen wird der Ansatz immer stärker, dass man sich im
Verband stärker zusammen aufstellt und Jobs interessanter gestaltet. Neue,
innovative Modelle sind beispielsweise, dass mittelständische Unternehmen über
die
Möglichkeit
von
Job
Rotation
zwischen
unterschiedlichen
Betrieben
nachdenken, oder gemeinsam Trainingsprogramme aufstellen. Wir können aus
Forschungssicht sagen, und das belegen auch viele Studien, dass im Zuge der
Mitarbeiterbindung,
Wertschätzung
der
Mitarbeiter
und
auch
der
Mitarbeiterentwicklung Trainingsprogramme innerhalb der Logistik nicht nur wichtig
für Führungskräfte sondern auch für Berufskraftfahrer sind.
157
Zitat: Zander, G. Die Kosten des demografischen Wandels (2011), S. 2.
52
Das Risiko beim Mangel an qualifiziertem Personal ist, dass die Aufträge nicht
entsprechend erfüllt werden können, was wiederum die zukünftige Auftragsvergabe
und Ausschreibungen behindert, und das führt letztendlich zu finanziellen
Problemen innerhalb der Unternehmen. Es ist schon ein sehr ernstzunehmendes,
existentielles Problem.
4. Frage: Der e-commerce Sektor ist ein stetig wachsender Sektor – dies hat
Zufolge, dass auch die KEP Branche davon profitiert und sich in einem
wachsenden Sektor befindet. Ein wesentliches Element bei der Erfüllung
dieser Dienstleistung ist der KEP-Fahrer, der die Sendungen zum Kunden
ausliefert. Wie bewerten Sie in diesem Kontext das Berufsbild eines KEPFahrers?
Antwort: Also ich glaube nicht, dass das Berufsbild eines KEP Fahrers bei
e-commerce ein anderes Bild ist, als sonst auch. Der Begriff von e-commerce
existiert ja seit mehr als zehn Jahren. Ich glaube, dass der Trend von e-commerce
weiter zunehmen wird. Es gibt mittlerweile den Begriff Mobile-Commerce – das
heißt shopping über das Smart Phone. Und innerhalb des Konsumgüterbereichs
gibt es den nächsten Begriff, der lautet f-commerce - das ist die Integration von
Webshop als neuer Vertriebsbereich in Facebook & Co. Das zeigt einfach, dass die
Vertriebskanäle viel stärker differenziert werden. Diese Differenzierung zeigt auch,
dass Konsumenten nicht nur Trockensortimente oder Produkte bestellen, sondern
auch gekühlte Nahrungsmittel. Das ist auch der nächste große Schritt.
Bislang war das in Deutschland wenig verbreitet, wir sehen aber auch innovative
Modelle wie Tesco in Südkorea. Das Konzept funktioniert - Plakate mit
aufgedruckten Supermarktregalen werden in Bahnhöfen angebracht und während
man auf die Bahn wartet, kann man mit seinem Smartphone per Barcode-Scan
shoppen. Solche innovativen Modelle werden den online Markt auch im Bereich
der Nahrungsmittel in den nächsten Jahren ziemlich pushen. Insofern hat es auch
Auswirkungen, weil es gekühlte Transporte sind.
Technologisch hatte man die Idee bereits mit Einführung des Tower24. Dieses
Konzept hatte die Möglichkeit geboten, gekühlte Ware zu lagern. Es funktioniert
53
ähnlich wie die Packstation, nur das man auch die Möglichkeit hat, gekühlte Ware
zu lagern. Die Technologie ist gegeben, allerdings war der Markt noch nicht bereit.
5. Frage: Welche Maßnahmen halten Sie für notwendig, um die Folgen des
demografischen Wandels auszuhebeln und das Berufsbild eines KEPFahrers attraktiver zu machen?
Antwort: Wie bereits erwähnt ist die Arbeitsplatzgestaltung unter anderem durch
technologische Lösungen wie zum Beispiel mit dem Massagestuhl ist ein wichtiger
Aspekt. Aufgrund der hohen körperlichen Belastung in diesem Beruf ist das
Berufsbild nicht sehr attraktiv. Deshalb ist die Einführung von solchen Maßnahmen,
um die körperliche Belastung zu entlasten, ein wichtiger Aspekt.
Auf
den
anderen
Seite,
und
das
ist
vielleicht
unausgesprochen,
wird
gegebenenfalls zu wenig Gehalt gezahlt. Der Markt wird es irgendwann regulieren,
dadurch dass das Angebot an Fahrern niedriger ist als der Bedarf. Hier werden
Unternehmen untereinander konkurrieren durch attraktive Arbeitsplatzgestaltung
sowie höhere Entlohnung.
Ein
weiterer
Aspekt
kann
auch
sein,
dass
die
Unternehmen
in
die
Mitarbeiterentwicklung investieren, um dadurch eine höhere Mitarbeiterbindung zu
schaffen. Das heißt Unternehmen investieren in die Ausbildung der Mitarbeiter,
fördern sie und bauen dadurch eine Bindung zum Unternehmen auf.
6. Frage: Wie wichtig ist das Thema Training im Hinblick auf das Berufsbild
des KEP Fahrers?
Antwort: Die Anforderungen an Fahrer nehmen zu, Thema Sicherheitsausbildung.
Ich unterstreiche, dass das Thema Training und Entwicklung von Mitarbeitern ein
sehr wichtiges Thema ist.
In der Zukunft werden gute Weiterentwicklungsmöglichkeiten eine bedeutende
Rolle bei der Wahl des Arbeitsgebers spielen – und wie bereits erwähnt wird dies
auch in der Logistikbranche eine wichtige Rolle spielen.
54
7. Frage: Welche Trainings könnten sinnvoll sein, um das Berufsbild zu
verändern und die Mitarbeiter langfristig an das Unternehmen zu binden?
Antwort: Das Thema Nachhaltigkeit durch neue Technologien, neue Antriebe,
Elektro-Mobilität ist ein Aspekt – diese Themen sind wichtig im Hinblick darauf,
dass die Logistik nachhaltiger wird, durch weniger Spritverbrauch und dadurch
weniger Emissionen ausschüttet werden. Durch Fahrerschulungen und besonders
wachsames Fahren kann die Nachhaltigkeit gefördert werden.
Weitere
mehrwertbringende
Schulungen
sind
der
Gesundheitssektor
und
Fahrsicherheitstrainings. Schulungen, die sich mit der Vorsorge beschäftigen, das
heißt wie der Fahrer entlastend Fahren kann, indem beispielsweise im Bildschirm
angezeigt wird, wie der Fahrer seine Arme entlasten sollte, etc. sind besonders
wichtig.
8. Frage: Wie bewerten Sie Anreize durch monetäre Aspekte – wie zum
Beispiel das Thema Incentives in diesem Zusammenhang?
Antwort: Zu Incentives gibt es viele Studien und welche Wirkungen diese haben.
Hier muss man zwischen den verschiedenen Hierarchieebenen unterscheiden.
Damit ist gemeint, wenn man in einer Top- oder mittleren Führungsebene ist, dann
gibt es andere Anreize die wichtiger sind als monetäre Anreize. Je niedriger die
Gehälter sind, desto größer ist der Anreiz von Boni basierend auf monetärer
Ebene. Bei Fahrern könnte es ein interessanter Aspekt sein, da gesagt wird, dass
Fahrer eher gering verdienen und durch monetäre Anreize das Berufsbild an
Attraktivität gewinnen kann. Bonus hat auch immer etwas mit Wertschätzung zu
tun.
9. Frage: Welchen Unterschied würde es machen, wenn der KEP Fahrer nicht
bei einem Sub-Unternehmer sondern direkt bei dem KEP Dienstleister
beschäftigt wäre?
55
Antwort: Die Arbeit des Sub-Unternehmers kann der Auftraggeber durch Audits
steuern. Dennoch hat die Vergangenheit gezeigt, dass die Sub-Unternehmer nicht
immer nach dem Code of Conduct handeln oder manche Verhaltensregeln nicht
eingehalten werden, und vielleicht die Fahrer sehr stark unter Druck gesetzt
werden. Wenn der Fahrer direkt bei einem KEP Dienstleister beschäftigt wäre, ist
die Einflussspanne größer.
Das ist aber nicht die Lösung für all diese Themen; es hat ja schon seine
Berechtigung, dass Sub-Unternehmer eingesetzt werden. Hier muss man einfach
das Rahmenwerk schaffen, das man entsprechende Kontrollen macht; Audits
durchführt werden und gewährleistet ist, dass nach den richtigen beziehungsweise
vorgegebenen Regeln gearbeitet wird. Es ist wie in jeder Kunden- und
Lieferantenbeziehung.
Diese Fälle gibt es auch in der Industrie. Wenn ein Lieferant in China sitzt, muss
der Auftraggeber sich auch darüber Gedanken machen, dass der vor Ort
ansässige Lieferant nicht die Menschenrechte verletzt. Je mehr Lieferanten
innerhalb der Kette sind, umso schwieriger ist die Kontrolle – umso mehr
Kontrollmechanismen muss man einrichten.
10. Frage: Wie sieht Ihrer Meinung nach das Berufsbild eines KEP Fahrers im
Jahre 2025 aus?
Antwort: Das ist eine gute Frage. Wenn man Studien erstellt und recherchiert, hat
die Zukunft mehrere Dimensionen. Es gibt die wahrscheinliche Zukunft, die
gewünschte Zukunft, das heißt was wünschen sich die Leute, was soll passieren
und die überraschende Zukunft, das heißt alles kann ganz anders kommen als
geplant. Im Hinblick auf die Arbeitsplatzgestaltung des Fahrers ist es sicherlich
wünschenswert einen Arbeitsplatz zu haben, der weniger gesundheitsbelastend ist.
Es gibt einige Vorkehrungen, bei denen die Mitarbeiter sich ordentlich aufgehoben
fühlen, ein gutes Gefühl bei ihrer Arbeitsverrichtung haben, sich im Unternehmen
wohl fühlen, sich fortbilden können - im Sinne des lebenslangen Lernens - und sie
unterm Strich auch die Familie ernähren können.
Man sieht, dass hier auch einiges innerhalb der Unternehmen im Umbruch ist - im
Sinne von Nachhaltigkeit. Aber Nachhaltigkeit definiert sich nicht über die
56
ökologische Dimension sondern auch die soziale Dimension. Und die soziale
Dimension schließt diese ganzen Themen der Mitarbeiterentwicklung sowie
Arbeitsplatzgestaltung mit ein. Das Bewusstsein für diesen Bereich schärft sich
immer weiter, und ich bin mir ziemlich sicher, dass in 20 Jahren diese ganzen
Nachhaltigkeitsthemen als ein Muss angesehen werden und viel weniger als ein
Wettbewerbsvorteil so wie es heute der Fall ist.
Name:
Anonym
Company:
Anonym
Address:
Anonym
Position:
Geschäftsführer
Date:
Personal interview, 25.05.2013
Hypothese:
Hintergrund:
wichtiger Aspekt.
57
1. Frage: Erzählen Sie etwas zu Ihrem Unternehmen – seit wann sind Sie auf
dem Markt, wie viele Mitarbeiter beschäftigen Sie und in welchem Umfang
sind Ihre Aufträge?
Wir sind seit 1999 für einen KEP Dienstleister tätig. Derzeit werden Circa 10.000
Sendungen pro Tag zugestellt und in gleicher Höhe abgeholt – Wir fahren circa
70 % bis 75 % der Zustellungen und Abholungen. Wir sind täglich mit mehr als 120
Fahrzeugen unterwegs und beschäftigen demnach mehr als 120 Fahrer und
Fahrerinnen. Hierbei ist die Ausländerquote mit circa 97 % sehr hoch.
2. Frage: Betrachten wir die Praxis; wie bewerten Sie die Situation
hinsichtlich des Fahrermangels innerhalb der KEP Branche?
Es ist sehr schwierig Fahrer zu rekrutieren.
Woran liegt das?
Es beginnt mit der finanziellen Lage – ein Arbeitsloser verdient minimal weniger als
ein Fahrer. Die Gehälter als Fahrer bei einem Sub-Unternehmer (bei einem KEP
Dienstleister, im Bereich Express, der anonymisiert ist) beginnen bei circa 1500
Euro Brutto pro Monat bei einer Arbeitszeit von circa 10 Stunden pro Tag. Deshalb
merken viele Bewerber während des Bewerbungsgesprächs, dass dieser Job für
sie nicht in Frage kommt. Ein Fahrer aus dem Bereich Paket, der festangestellt ist,
verdient monatlich Brutto circa 2000 Euro.
Außerdem kommt die Thematik auf, der Job sehr stressig ist. Viele Bewerber
möchten nicht riskieren, dass sie ihren Führerschein verlieren. Denn der Zeitdruck
58
ist sehr hoch und damit verbunden, kann die Verleitung zu Verkehrswidrigkeit auch
gegeben sein.
In der Regel liegt die Arbeitszeit eines KEP Fahrers bei circa 10 Stunden. Der
anonymisierte KEP Dienstleister belegt in der Statistik eine durchschnittliche
Arbeitszeit von circa 8 Stunden. Der Hintergrund hierfür liegt darin, dass die
Arbeitszeit bei dem anonymisierten KEP Dienstleister mit der ersten Auslieferung
beginnt und der letzten Auslieferung endet. Allerdings muss ein Fahrer vor der
ersten Auslieferung die Sendungen laden, die Route planen und sich durch den
Verkehr kämpfen bis er die erste Lieferung abgeben kann. Nach der letzten
Lieferung muss jeder Fahrer ins Depot fahren, dort die Belege für die tägliche Tour
abgeben und die abgeholten Sendungen im Lager abgeben.
3.
Frage: Wie lange
ist Ihrer
Meinung
nach
die durchschnittliche
Beschäftigungsdauer eines KEP-Fahrers?
Die durchschnittliche Beschäftigungsdauer liegt bei weniger als einem Jahr. Es gibt
Ausnahmen, aber das ist eher sehr gering. Es ist sehr schwer Fahrer zu rekrutieren
und zu halten – hierbei spielen wie bereits gesagt, die Gehälter eine große Rolle.
4. Frage: Ein weiterer Aspekt, bedingt durch den demografischen Wandel,
sind die finanziellen Folgen des Personalmangels. “...Unternehmen müssen
verstärkte Ressourcen in die Mitarbeitersuche stecken und bei der
zunehmenden Anzahl älterer Arbeitnehmer mit erhöhten Aufwendungen für
krankheitsbedingte Fehlzeiten, höheren Urlaubsanspruch oder bestehende
Vorruhestandsregelungen rechnen.“158 Wie bewerten Sie diese Aussage im
Hinblick auf KEP-Fahrer? Inwieweit stellt dies ein Risiko für KEP
Unternehmen dar?
Sehr starke und hohe Flexibilität ist gefordert – man muss Querdenken. Man
benötigt viel Geduld um nicht die Nerven zu verlieren. Neben der Tatsache, dass
wir Schwierigkeiten haben gute Fahrer zu finden und zu halten, kommt es täglich
zu Herausforderungen wie zum Beispiel, dass sich Unfälle ereignen oder
158
Zitat: Zander, G. Die Kosten des demografischen Wandels (2011), S. 2.
59
Fahrzeuge defekt sind. Es ist wichtig in diesen Situationen lösungsorientiert zu
denken, damit die Sendungen zeitgerecht zugestellt und abgeholt werden. Es
kommt auch oft vor, dass wir selber mit ausliefern oder abholen.
5.
Frage:
Welche
Anforderungen
stellen
Sie
an
KEP
Fahrer
im
Bewerbungsprozess?
Man kann keine hohen Anforderungen stellen. Es ist gut, wenn sie Spaß am
Fahren haben und Verantwortung tragen können. Für sehr junge Fahrer ist es sehr
schwer in diesem Job – man braucht starke Nerven.
Der anonymisierte KEP Dienstleister stellt auch Anforderungen, allerdings sind die
Vorstellungen und Erwartungen in der Theorie ok, aber in der Praxis nicht erfüllbar,
da wir froh sind um jeden guten Fahrer.
6. Frage: Wenn Sie den Bewerbungsprozess betrachten, wie ist die aktuelle
Situation auf dem Markt hinsichtlich Anzahl eingehender Bewerbungen?
Wie bereits erwähnt, ist es sehr schwer Fahrer zu finden.
7. Frage: Welche Risiken stellt eine Knappheit der qualifizierten Fahrer dar?
Abholungen können nicht zeitgerecht erfüllt werden, deshalb ist in Diskussion, dass
das Abholzeitfenster erhöht werden soll.
Das Risiko, dass Aufträge nicht erfüllt werden können ist hoch, denn die
Bezahlungen der Fahrer sind zu niedrig, die Anzahl der Sendungen erhöht sich
immer weiter, auch die Zustellungen in Privathaushalten hat sich erhöht – dies führt
dazu, dass die Personen nicht angetroffen werden können und der Fahrer eine
Zweitzustellung einplanen muss.
Generell gesagt, es ist nicht einfach und das Risiko, dass Aufträge nicht erfüllt
werden können, bedingt durch die Knappheit der Fahrer, ist hoch.
8. Frage: Was sind die drei größten Herausforderungen innerhalb dieser
Branche?
Die Fahrerqualität ist eine Herausforderung. Wir arbeiten die Fahrer ein, allerdings
unter schweren Bedingungen, da alle unter Zeitdruck stehen.
60
Die Mitarbeiterentwicklung ist ein wertvoller Ansatz, um die Qualität der Leistung zu
erhöhen und den Mitarbeiter zu fördern – hieran arbeiten wir. Allerdings ist auch
diese Maßnahme mit Zeit verbunden – unter der Woche ist es sehr eine Schulung
während der Arbeitszeit einzuplanen und am Wochenende möchte jeder
Mitarbeiter bei seiner Familie sein.
9. Frage: Welche Maßnahmen unternehmen Sie, um die Knappheit der Fahrer
zu umgehen und die Aufträge zu erfüllen?
Planung ist sehr wichtig um den Mangel frühzeitig zu erkennen und die Sendungen
auf die anderen Touren zu verteilen. Immer wachsam sein und lösungsorientiert
sowie kreativ denken – dabei ist es gut, die Nerven zu behalten.
10. Frage: Welche Maßnahmen könnten das Berufsbild eines KEP-Fahrers
attraktiver machen?
Eine bessere Bezahlung.
Es wäre sehr hilfreich für die Planung, wenn wir Zugriff auf die Systeme des
anonymisierten KEP Dienstleisters hätten – dies würde den Kommunikationsweg
verkürzen.
Weiterhin wäre es zeiteinsparend, wenn der anonymisierte KEP Dienstleister im
Bereich Express, auch die kleinen Drucker einsetzen würde wie im Bereich Paket.
Ein KEP Dienstleister aus dem Bereich Paket macht es bereits – hierbei handelt es
sich um kleine Drucker, die bei nicht zustellbaren Sendungen eingesetzt werden.
Die Drucker drucken eine Karte für den Empfänger aus, mit allen relevanten Daten
zur Sendung. Diese technologische Entwicklung ist sehr effizient. Unsere Fahrer
hingegen müssen alles händisch ausfüllen.
11. Frage: Welche Wirkungen haben Trainings bei KEP-Fahrern?
Absolute Horizonterweiterung und Motivation.
12. Frage: Welche Trainings sind Ihrer Meinung nach notwendig?
Erst einmal ist wichtig zu erwähnen, dass Schulungen nicht von dem
anonymisierten KEP Dienstleister bezahlt werden. Es ist kein Motivationsfaktor für
Fahrer, wenn die Kosten für ein Training nicht übernommen werden.
61
Hilfreiche Trainings sind Einarbeitungstrainings, Gesundheitsfördernde Trainings,
Fahrsicherheitstrainings und Dangerous Goods Trainings.
13. Frage: Welche Motivationsfaktoren für die KEP Fahrer setzen Sie ein?
Wir stellen Fahrzeuge inklusive Tankkarte und Telefonkarte zur Verfügung – auch
für die private Nutzung. Wir kümmern uns auch um die privaten Angelegenheiten
unserer Mitarbeiter. Zum Beispiel unterstützen wir sie als Dolmetscher bei
Arztterminen oder Behördengängen.
14. Frage: Wie könnte das Berufsbild eines KEP Fahrers im Jahre 2015
aussehen?
Im Jahre 2025 sollten die technologischen Entwicklungen vorangeschritten sein –
damit ist eine Weiterentwicklung zum Beispiel von Packstationen gemeint. Die
Fahrzeuge sollten mit ergonomischen beziehungsweise Gesundheitsfördernden
Sitzen ausgestattet sein.
Ein weiterer Aspekt wäre, wenn der anonymisierte KEP Dienstleister die Depots
komplett outsourcen würde –also eine Fremdvergabe an Servicepartner. Wir
kennen das Geschäft sehr gut und könnten flexibler handeln und planen.
Name:
Anonym
Company:
Anonym
Address:
Anonym
Position:
KEP-Fahrer
Date:
Personal interview, 25.05.2013
62
Hypothese:
Hintergrund:
wichtiger Aspekt.
1. Frage: Wie lange arbeiten Sie als KEP-Fahrer?
Ich arbeite bei dem anonymisierten Sub-Unternehmer als Fahrer seit 1,5 Jahren.
2. Frage: Wenn Sie einem netten Nachbarsjungen, das Berufsbild eines KEPFahrers beschreiben würden, wie würde es aussehen?
Ich hole jeden Morgen Pakete vom Depot ab, lade sie ein und liefere sie beim
Kunden aus. Die Kunst dabei ist, eine optimale Routenplanung zu haben, damit ich
die Sendungen pünktlich zustellen kann. Dann sind die Kunden auch glücklich.
3. Frage: Welche 3 Dinge lieben Sie an Ihrem Beruf?
Jeden Tag begegne ich neuen Gesichtern beziehungsweise neuen Kunden.
63
Das war’s - weitere fallen mir nicht ein.
4. Frage: Welche 3 Dinge mögen Sie eher nicht an Ihrem Beruf?
Was ich gar nicht mag ist das frühe Aufstehen. Ich stehe um 4:30h auf morgens
auf und um 6h starte ich hier. Ich wohne in Remscheid, deshalb ist der Weg zur
Arbeit länger.
Der Verkehr und Stau ist sehr nervig. Vor allem wenn ich Zeitoptionen einhalten
muss.
Ich mag es nicht, unter Zeitdruck zu arbeiten.
Ich mag es auch nicht, dass ich Strafe bekomme, weil ich zu schnell fahre, damit
ich die Sendungen pünktlich ausliefern kann.
5. Frage: Würden Sie den Beruf des KEP Fahrers dem netten Nachbarsjungen
von nebenan empfehlen?
Ja, ich empfehle den Job vielen Leuten, aber sie sind unzuverlässig und
erscheinen nicht zur Arbeit.
6. Frage: Kennen Sie die Hintergründe von Ihrer Antwort auf Frage 5 und
warum es so ist?
Ich habe die Leute gefragt, warum sie nicht nach kurzer Zeit nicht mehr zur Arbeit
kommen – sie haben keine Lust so früh aufzustehen und der Job ist sehr stressig.
Dieser Job ist sehr anstrengend.
7. Frage: Was tut Ihr Unternehmen dafür, damit Sie auf der Arbeit motiviert
sind?
Ich bekomme Geld für meine Arbeit. Die gute Atmosphäre und das gute
Betriebsklima motivieren mich.
Weiterhin fällt mir ein, dass ich das Auto auch mal privat nutzen darf.
8. Frage: Wenn Sie entscheiden dürften, welche 3 Motivationsfaktoren
würden Sie für Ihre Arbeit einführen?
64
Bonussysteme würden mich motivieren – damit kann das Geld aufgebessert
werden. Trainings motivieren mich – aber nicht, wenn sie am Wochenende
während meiner Freizeit stattfinden.
Ansonsten wäre es besser, wenn die Arbeit nicht so stressig wäre.
9. Frage: Wenn Sie an Ihren Beruf als KEP Fahrer denken, wie sieht Ihr Beruf
im Jahre 2015 aus?
Das weiß ich nicht.
65
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72
73
Die Publikationsreihe
Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung / Research Paper Logistics
In
der
Schriftenreihe
Logistikforschung
Dienstleistungs-management
(ild)
der
des
FOM
Institutes
werden
für
Logistik-
fortlaufend
&
aktuelle
Fragestellungen rund um die Entwicklung der Logistikbranche aufgegriffen. Sowohl
aus der Perspektive der Logistikdienstleister als auch der verladenden Wirtschaft
aus Industrie und Handel werden innovative Konzepte und praxisbezogene
Instrumente des Logistikmanagement vorgestellt. Damit kann ein öffentlicher
Austausch von Erfahrungswerten und Benchmarks in der Logistik erfolgen, was
insbesondere den KMU der Branche zu Gute kommt.
The series research paper logistics within Institute for Logistics and Service
Management of FOM University of Applied Sciences addresses management
topics within the logistics industry. The research perspectives include logistics
service providers as well as industry and commerce concerned with logistics
research questions. The research documents support an open discussion about
logistics concepts and benchmarks.
Band 1
Klumpp, M. / Bovie, F.: Personalmanagement in der Logistikwirtschaft
Band 2
Jasper, A. / Klumpp, M.: Handelslogistik und E-Commerce [vergriffen]
Band 3
Klumpp, M.: Logistikanforderungen globaler Wertschöpfungsketten
[vergriffen]
Band 4
Matheus, D. / Klumpp, M.: Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)
in der Logistik
Band 5
Bioly, S. / Klumpp, M.: RFID und Dokumentenlogistik
Band 6
Klumpp, M.: Logistiktrends und Logistikausbildung 2020
Band 7
Klumpp, M. / Koppers, C.: Integrated Business Development
Band 8
Gusik, V. / Westphal, C.: GPS in Beschaffungs- und Handelslogistik
Band 9
Koppers, L. / Klumpp, M.: Kooperationskonzepte in der Logistik
Band 10
Koppers, L.: Preisdifferenzierung im Supply Chain Management
Band 11
Klumpp, M.: Logistiktrends 2010
74
Band 12
Keuschen, T. / Klumpp, M.: Logistikstudienangebote und Logistiktrends
Band 13
Bioly, S. / Klumpp, M.: Modulare Qualifizierungskonzeption RFID
in der Logistik
Band 14
Klumpp, M.: Qualitätsmanagement der Hochschullehre Logistik
Band 15
Klumpp, M. / Krol, B.: Das Untersuchungskonzept Berufswertigkeit
in der Logistikbranche
Band 16
Keuschen, T. / Klumpp, M.: Green Logistics Qualifikation in der
Logistikpraxis
Band 17
Kandel, C. / Klumpp, M.: E-Learning in der Logistik
Band 18
Abidi, H. / Zinnert, S. / Klumpp, M.: Humanitäre Logistik – Status
quo und wissenschaftliche Systematisierung
Band 19
Backhaus, O. / Döther, H. / Heupel, T.: Elektroauto – Milliardengrab
oder Erfolgsstory?
Band 20
Hesen, M.-A. / Klumpp, M.: Zukunftstrends in der Chemielogistik
Band 21
Große-Brockhoff, M. / Klumpp, M. / Krome, D.: Logistics capacity
management – A theoretical review and applications to outbound
logistics
Band 22
Helmold, M. / Klumpp, M.: Schlanke Prinzipien im
Lieferantenmanagement
Band 23
Gusik, V. / Klumpp, M. / Westphal, C.: International Comparison of
Dangerous Goods Transport and Training Schemes
Band 24
Bioly, S. / Kuchshaus, V. / Klumpp, M.: Elektromobilität und
Ladesäulenstandortbestimmung – Eine exemplarische Analyse mit dem
Beispiel der Stadt Duisburg
Band 25
Sain, S. / Keuschen, T. / Klumpp, M.: Demographic Change and ist
Effect on Urban Transportation Systems: A View from India
Band 26
Abidi, H. / Klumpp, M.: Konzepte der Beschaffungslogistik in
Katastrophenhilfe und humanitärer Logistik
Band 27
Froelian, E. / Sandhaus, G.: Conception of Implementing a Service
Oriented Architecture (SOA) in a Legacy Environment
Band 28
Albrecht, L. / Klumpp, M. / Keuschen, T.: DEA-Effizienzvergleich
Deutscher Verkehrsflughäfen in den Bereichen Passage/Fracht
Band 29
Meyer, A. / Witte, C. / Klumpp, M.: Arbeitgeberwahl und
Mitarbeitermotivation in der Logistikbranche
Band 30
Keuschen, T. / Klumpp, M.: Einsatz von Wikis in der Logistikpraxis
75
Band 31
Abidi, H. / Klumpp, M.: Industrie-Qualifikationsrahmen in der Logistik
Band 32
Kaiser, S. / Abidi, H. / Klumpp, M.: Gemeinnützige Kontraktlogistik in der
humanitären Hilfe
Band 33
Abidi, H. / Klumpp, M. / Bölsche, D.: Kompetenzen in der humanitären
Logistik
Band 34
Just, J. / Klumpp, M. / Bioly, S.: Mitarbeitermotivation bei
Berufskraftfahrern – Eine empirische Erhebung auf der Basis der AHPMethode
Band 35
Keinhörster, M. / Sandhaus, G.: Maschinelles Lernen zur Erkennung
von SMS-Spam
Band 36
Kutlu, C. / Bioly, S. / Klumpp, M.: Demografic change in the CEP sector
Die 1993 von Verbänden der Wirtschaft gegründete staatlich anerkannte gemeinnützige
FOM Hochschule verfügt über 30 Studienorte in Deutschland.
Als praxisorientierte Hochschule fördert die FOM den Wissenstransfer zwischen Hochschule
und Unternehmen. Dabei sind alle wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Studiengänge der FOM
auf die Bedürfnisse von Berufstätigen zugeschnitten. Die hohe Akzeptanz der FOM zeigt sich
nicht nur in der engen Zusammenarbeit mit staatlichen Hochschulen, sondern auch in zahlreichen Kooperationen mit regionalen mittelständischen Betrieben sowie mit internationalen
Großkonzernen. FOM-Absolventen verfügen über solide Fachkompetenzen wie auch über
herausragende soziale Kompetenzen und sind deshalb von der Wirtschaft sehr begehrt.
Weitere Informationen finden Sie unter fom.de
Das Ziel des ild Institut für Logistik- & Dienstleistungsmanagement ist der konstruktive Austausch zwischen anwendungsorientierter Forschung und Betriebspraxis. Die Wissenschaftler
des Instituts untersuchen nachhaltige und innovative Logistik- und Dienstleistungskonzepte
unterschiedlicher Bereiche, initiieren fachbezogene Managementdiskurse und sorgen zudem
für einen anwendungs- und wirtschaftsorientierten Transfer ihrer Forschungsergebnisse
in die Unternehmen. So werden die wesentlichen Erkenntnisse der verschiedenen Projekte
und Forschungen unter anderem in dieser Schriftenreihe Logistikforschung herausgegeben.
Darüber hinaus erfolgen weitergehende Veröffentlichungen bei nationalen und internationalen
Fachkonferenzen sowie in Fachpublikationen.
Weitere Informationen finden Sie unter fom-ild.de
ISSN 1866-0304

Demografic change in the CEP sector

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