ETP LANDSCAPE MONTHLY SNAPSHOT | FEBRUARY 2014
Transcription
ETP LANDSCAPE MONTHLY SNAPSHOT | FEBRUARY 2014
ETP LANDSCAPE MONTHLY SNAPSHOT | FEBRUARY 2014 The opinions expressed are as of February 28th, 2014 and may change as subsequent conditions vary. What’s Inside BlackRock ETP Research Dodd Kittsley Head of BlackRock ETP Research Raj Seshadri Head of BlackRock ETP Insights Global Overview 3 YTD Overview 5 Reference Schedules Flows by Listing Region 6 ETP and Mutual Fund Monthly Equity Flows 7 ETP and Mutual Fund Monthly Fixed Income Flows 8 ETP Flows by Exposure 9 For inquiries, contact ETPresearch@BlackRock.com FIXED INCOME ETP FLOWS SURGED IN EARLY FEBRUARY WHILE EQUITIES RECOVERED AFTER A ROCKY START 1 Global ETP inflows finished February at $27.2bn spurred on by Janet Yellen’s February 11th address to Congress, which was well received by equity markets. Fixed Income flows of $19.6bn set a new monthly record amid expectations for continued low interest rates and low inflation. • US Treasuries brought in $11.4bn and Investment Grade Corporate gathered $3.6bn. High Yield Corporate added $1.4bn. • Despite inflows into all duration buckets, Short Maturity funds had a record month taking in $7.4bn. Overall Equity flows were moderate at $5.8bn with investors continuing to favor non-US Developed Markets exposures. • Japanese Equity inflows reached $4.1bn and Pan-European funds gathered $2.8bn as evidence continues to point toward improving growth in the region. • US Equity outflows totalled ($0.2bn) and Emerging Markets shed ($4.5bn). February played out as a tale of two halves and ETPs enabled market participants to efficiently reallocate capital as sentiment shifted. • Prior to Yellen’s remarks, Equity ETP redemptions reached ($21.2bn) while Fixed Income accumulated $16.8bn as investors waited out the equity market volatility that carried over from January. • Subsequently, the trend reversed with Equities recovering $27.1bn (largely US Equity) while Fixed Income cooled but still brought in an additional $2.8bn. About the ETP Landscape: Monthly Snapshot Report This report provides a summary of global ETP assets under management and asset flows for the most recent month-end period. [2] Global Overview GLOBAL ETP WEEKLY FLOWS1 Highlights (US$):1,2 2014 February Flows $27.2bn February inflows of $27.2bn for the Global ETP Industry represented a dramatic turnaround from January’s outflows, underscoring the uncertainty confronting markets so far in 2014. Going forward this year, volatility is likely to move higher, reverting to its long-term historical average. 6.0 (3.4) (12.0) (4.5) The lack of a clear signal on global economic growth – following a year in which the anticipation of improvement propelled stocks to impressive gains – has led to active movement of capital among asset classes that was reflected in ETP flows during the month. There were, however, categories that continued to consistently gather assets. Global Fixed Income flows of $19.6bn set a new record in February and were led by US exposures with $16.8bn, also a new high. Flows spiked as US Equity redemptions mounted early in the month, but then slowed abruptly. It remains unclear whether the pickup this month was a sign of changing investor behavior or more opportunistic in nature given shortterm market conditions as well as range-bound interest rates and low inflation expectations. Still, in two months it brings year-to-date Fixed Income flows to $23.1bn, close to the total for all of 2013 at $27.1bn. US Treasuries and Investment Grade bonds led the way accumulating $11.4bn and $3.6bn this month, respectively. High Yield added $1.4bn. European Fixed Income exposures continued their strong run gathering $1.3bn, just off the pace from January. Short Maturity Fixed Income flows also reached their highest monthly total on record at $7.4bn after subsiding late in 2013. While the outlook for Emerging Markets Equity remains tenuous in light of tension in the Ukraine and Chinese currency volatility, it has stabilized notably since January and so have ETP flows. February brought additional outflows of ($4.5bn) but they were concentrated early in the month. 6.6 6.0 Developed Int’l Equity Fixed Income US Equity EM Equity Commodities/Other 1/17 1/24 1/31 2/7 2/14 2/21 2/28 GLOBAL EQUITY ETP FLOWS1 2014 YTD Flows ($1.9bn) vs. 2013 YTD Flows: $46.8bn Jan-Feb 2013 Jan-Feb 2014 US Japan Pan Other DM/ European Global Emerging Markets GLOBAL FIXED INCOME ETP FLOWS1 2014 February Flows: $19.6bn Cumulative Net Flows ($US$bn) Redemptions in US Equity exposures that had emerged during late January continued into the first week of February but then reversed to inflows despite further lackluster reports on the labor market and manufacturing. The catalysts were Janet Yellen’s testimony before Congress and news of an agreement on debt ceiling legislation. The former was an encouraging sign of a smooth Fed transition and confirmation of low-for-longer interest rate policy in conjunction with tapering while the latter pushed an obstacle to 2014 growth off until next year. US Large Cap outflows abated, finishing the month down ($2.9bn) as opposed to the ($15.7bn) witnessed in January. One consistent trend was strength in US Sectors which built on existing momentum adding $4.1bn in February driven by Health Care, Energy and Real Estate. 19.2 Short Maturity Other Duration Buckets 2012 2013 2014 [3] Global Overview (cont’d) Highlights (US$):1,2 Year-to-date outflows of ($13.2bn) have now surpassed the total of ($10.3bn) for all of 2013. Valuations remain relatively attractive by historical standards for longer-term investors willing to ride out the volatility inherent in the asset class and encouraging forecasts for individual economies such as South Korea also continue to present opportunities for selective investors. Flows into Pan-European Equity exposures remained strong reaching $2.8bn in February. Data released mid-month indicated Q4 Eurozone GDP growth of 0.3% – above expectations for 0.2% – and February inflation of 0.8% annualized that remains low but has stabilized recently.3 Single country funds have also seen momentum in flows continue to build this year. They gathered $1.3bn in February led by Italy and Switzerland with $0.4bn each. In aggregate, flows into European Equity exposures totaled $4.2bn during the month. FEBRUARY RESULTS AT A GLANCE1 (US $billions) February 2014 January 2014* December 2013* February 2013 Monthly Flows 27.2 (6.6) 24.6 9.8 Assets 2,434 2,322 2,396 2,036 # of ETPs 5098 5,063 5,024 4,792 *Q4 2013 and Jan 2014 restated with additional Europe and Asia data. Global ETPs crossed 5,000 in product count during Dec 2013. GLOBAL 13-MONTH ROLLING FLOWS1 2014 YTD Flows: $20.6bn vs. 2013 Flows: $236.1bn (US$bn) The pace of Japanese Equity flows remained strong with $4.1bn added in February predominantly among a select set of Nikkei and TOPIX funds. Year-to-date the total has already reached $8.2bn. Inflows had tapered late in 2013 following impressive asset gathering of $26.0bn during the first half. Despite evidence that economic growth remains moderate – the latest Q4 data revealed GDP growth of 0.3%4 – the government reasserted its commitment to boost record stimulus measures if needed. Equity Fixed Income Commodities & Others CUMULATIVE EQUITY ETP FLOWS1 CUMULATIVE FIXED INCOME ETP FLOWS1 2014 YTD Equity Flows: ($1.9bn) 2014 YTD Fixed Income Flows: $23.1bn [4] 2014 Year-To-Date Overview GLOBAL ETP 2014 YTD FLOWS BY EXPOSURE1 (US$bn) YTD 2014 YTD 2013 Annual 2013 GLOBAL ETP CUMULATIVE NET FLOWS1 2014 YTD Flows $20.6bn vs. 2013 Flows: $236.1bn Global ETP Assets & Number of ETPs by Year1 Assets ($bn) $2,400 $2,200 $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 4,311 # of ETPs 5,024 5,098 4,759 5,000 3,543 4,000 2,694 3,000 2,220 2,396 2,434 1,541 1,944 883 524 297 300 357 218 2003 319 428 2004 2005 106 219 79 2000 109 146 2001 2002 2,000 1,483 1,525 851 772 2007 2008 1,156 1,000 598 0 2006 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Feb-14 [5] Flows By Listing Region Highlights (US$):1 Europe-listed ETPs gathered $4.3bn in February, the eighth consecutive month with positive flows Year-to-date Asia Pacific and Europe contributed to 85% of all global ETP inflows, with more than $8bn each. Funds listed in the US account for 70.9% of global ETP assets ASSET GROWTH RATES AND # OF ETPs1 FEBRUARY FLOWS BY LISTING REGION1 (# ETPs) 40 2014 Growth in # ETPs 35 30 US Bubble size = Assets ($bn) $1,727 25 Canada 20 Europe $59 15 $429 Asia Pacific 10 5 Latin America 0 $9 $169 -5 -24% -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% -10 2014 AUM Growth 0% 4% 8% Commodities & Others Fixed Income Equity LISTING REGION VIEW1 Net Flows By Listing Region Feb 2014 YTD 2014 Feb 2014 Assets % Asset Market Share Number of Products [6] ETP and Mutual Fund Equity Flows Highlights (US$):1,5 ETP and mutual funds Equity flows exhibited similar patterns so far this year. Emerging Markets Equity mutual fund outflows were Developed Markets Equity mutual fund inflows were $50.6bn year-to-date, after finishing 2013 with $165.7bn. Developed Markets Equity ETPs had inflows of $11.3bn vs. $258.4bn for full-year 2013. ($15.5bn) year-to-date, already more than double the ($6.6bn) total for last year. EM Equity ETP outflows reached ($13.2bn) year-to-date, also surpassing the ($10.3bn) from last year. GLOBAL EQUITY ETP FLOWS1,5 GLOBAL EQUITY MUTUAL FUND FLOWS1,5 2014 YTD Flows ($1.9bn) vs. 2013 Flows $248.1bn 2014 YTD Flows $35.0bn vs. 2013 Flows $159.1bn 300 258.4 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 165.7 50.6 11.3 0 0 (13.2) (10.3) (50) J F M A M J J A S O N D (15.5) (6.6) (50) J F M A M J J A Developed Markets Flows in 2014 Emerging Markets Flows in 2014 Developed Markets Flows in 2013 Emerging Markets Flows in 2013 S O N D [7] ETP and Mutual Fund Flows Fixed Income and Money Market Highlights (US$):1,5 The preference for Short Maturity Fixed Income that was a key theme in 2013 is still evident for Mutual Funds but is less pronounced for ETPs. Short Maturity Fixed Income mutual funds gathered $11.0bn so far this year, while other maturities had redemptions of ($11.2bn). Fixed Income ETPs gathered $23.1bn year-to-date, led by US Treasury Bond and Investment Grade Corporate Bond funds. Flows of $9.3bn came from Short Maturity funds and other duration buckets added $13.8bn. Money Market mutual funds surrendered ($20.1bn) year- to-date, similar thus far to the pattern seen last year. Money Market ETP trends are not shown below as assets are minimal. Flows are included with those of Fixed Income funds. 2014 YTD Flows ($0.2bn) vs. 2013 Flows ($103.3bn) 35.8 40 30 20 13.8 9.3 10 0 (8.7) -10 -20 Cumulative Net Flows (US$bn) GLOBAL FIXED INCOME MUTUAL FUND FLOWS1,2,5 2014 YTD Flows $23.1bn vs. 2013 Flows $27.1bn Cumulative Net Flows (US$bn) GLOBAL FIXED INCOME ETP FLOWS1,2,5 129.3 150 100 50 11.0 0 -50 (11.2) -100 -150 (232.7) -200 -250 -300 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A Short Maturity Flows in 2014 Other Maturity Buckets Flows in 2014 Short Maturity Flows in 2013 Other Maturity Buckets Flows in 2013 S O N D MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUND FLOWS1,5 2014 YTD Flows ($20.1bn) vs. 2013 Flows ($32.3bn) 0 (20.1) (32.3) (50) Money Market Mutual Fund Flows in 2014 (100) Money Market Mutual Fund Flows in 2013 (150) (200) J F M A M J J A S O N D [8] ETP Flows by Exposure: Developed Equity Exposure (US$mn) Feb 2014 Flows 2014 YTD Flows % of 2014 YTD Flows Assets (2,877) (3,292) 949 97 559 113 21 (4,430) 520 (1,102) (868) 1,578 803 2,698 (785) 1,234 (367) 7 216 139 4,074 147 (208) (398) 206 (399) 515 26 203 1,595 (18,598) (2,663) (1,272) 121 2,850 263 (99) (19,398) 1,018 (2,149) (982) 1,893 315 3,888 (700) 2,088 663 115 680 145 6,975 797 (11,626) (1,125) 484 (12,268) 886 (19) 757 4,703 (90.2) (12.9) (6.2) 0.6 13.8 1.3 (0.5) (94.1) 4.9 (10.4) (4.8) 9.2 1.5 18.9 (3.4) 10.1 3.2 0.6 3.3 0.7 33.8 3.9 (56.4) (5.5) 2.3 (59.5) 4.3 (0.1) 3.7 22.8 471,427 84,321 89,264 1,253 69,412 4,393 12,471 732,541 8,628 14,302 9,138 34,895 32,664 31,982 14,891 32,487 26,964 1,133 7,867 1,302 216,253 72,199 1,020,992 31,482 8,789 1,061,263 46,892 1,265 4,346 54,013 19.4 3.5 3.7 0.1 2.9 0.2 0.5 30.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 8.9 3.0 41.9 1.3 0.4 43.6 1.9 0.1 0.2 2.2 238 49 70 4 72 2 5 440 15 19 13 45 40 30 18 24 28 6 13 8 259 65 764 93 22 879 83 9 12 75 2,338 6,324 30.7 106,438 4.4 177 396 93 2,827 169 848 121 7,296 (164) 4.1 0.6 35.4 (0.8) 15,134 3,454 125,104 41,118 0.6 0.1 5.1 1.7 152 21 352 66 U.K. 194 841 4.1 22,810 0.9 58 Switzerland France 363 79 454 (21) 2.2 (0.1) 11,413 6,067 0.5 0.2 32 18 Others Europe Single Country Total 522 1,162 5.6 13,442 0.6 68 1,326 2,273 11.0 94,850 3.9 242 4,154 (604) 4,059 9,569 (889) 8,207 46.4 (4.3) 39.8 219,954 15,369 144,595 9.0 0.6 5.9 594 61 255 3,455 7,318 35.5 159,964 6.6 316 3,159 10,368 6,662 11,280 32.3 54.7 212,536 1,653,717 8.7 67.9 463 2,252 1 Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Micro Cap US Size and Style Total Market Extended Market Preferred Stock US Size and Style Total Basic Materials Consumer Cyclicals Consumer Non-cyclicals Energy Financials Health Care US Sector Industrials Real Estate Technology Telecommunications Utilities Theme US Sector Total US Strategy US Total Canada Equity North America Regional Equity North America Total Large Cap Mid Cap Pan European Small Cap Size and Style Total Market Pan European Size and Style Total Pan European Sector Pan European Strategy Pan European Total Germany Country Europe Total Asia-Pacific Regional Country Asia Pacific Total Broad-Based Global /Global ex-US Developed Equity Total % of Assets # ETPs [9] ETP Flows by Exposure: EM Equity, Fixed Income, & Commodities Exposure (US$mn) Broad EM 1 Broad Emerging Markets Broad Frontier Markets Broad EM Total Regional EM Brazil China India Russia EM Single Country South Korea Mexico Others EM Single Country Total Emerging Markets Equity Total Equity Total Broad/Aggregate Govt/Corp Emerging Markets Municipal Government - Sovereign Government - US Treasury Government Total Fixed Income Inflation High Yield Corporate Investment Grade Corporate Money Market Mortgage Others Fixed Income Total Broad Market Agriculture Energy Industrial Metals Commodities Precious Metals - Gold Precious Metals - Silver Precious Metals - Others Precious Metals - Total Commodities Total Alternatives Volatility Others Alternatives Total Asset Allocation Currency Israel ETP Global ETP Total Feb 2014 Flows 2014 YTD Flows % of 2014 YTD Flows Assets % of Assets (3,309) 40 (3,270) (161) (65) (528) (97) (202) (101) (207) 86 (1,115) (4,545) 5,823 347 809 771 39 577 11,394 11,971 (17) 1,402 (12,306) 84 (12,222) (510) 37 1,904 (256) (425) (756) (924) (60) (480) (13,212) (1,932) 1,488 594 712 145 1,570 12,015 13,585 (172) 1,125 (59.7) 0.4 (59.3) (2.5) 0.2 9.2 (1.2) (2.1) (3.7) (4.5) (0.3) (2.3) (64.1) (9.4) 7.2 2.9 3.5 0.7 7.6 58.3 65.9 (0.8) 5.5 104,013 835 104,848 6,082 6,881 54,720 5,224 2,411 19,296 8,916 21,546 118,993 229,923 1,883,640 45,566 33,193 19,686 11,980 42,655 46,027 88,682 25,134 45,891 4.3 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.3 2.2 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.9 4.9 9.4 77.4 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.5 1.8 1.9 3.6 1.0 1.9 111 5 116 76 45 206 52 17 113 20 150 603 795 3,047 37 29 79 37 263 78 341 39 51 3,586 4,686 22.7 83,720 3.4 139 (147) 334 501 19,598 149 49 298 (29) 501 200 (8) 693 1,159 220 2 222 507 (100) - (308) 272 948 23,075 (551) (5) 89 110 (372) 258 (126) (240) (596) 197 43 240 574 (750) - (1.5) 1.3 4.6 112.0 (2.7) (0.0) 0.4 0.5 (1.8) 1.3 (0.6) (1.2) (2.9) 1.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 (3.6) - 4,410 7,527 14,183 379,971 17,206 5,250 7,383 1,920 73,995 12,493 4,692 91,180 122,940 3,136 2,772 5,908 5,164 4,247 32,458 0.2 0.3 0.6 15.6 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.1 3.0 0.5 0.2 3.7 5.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.3 19 7 33 811 113 192 207 117 124 67 80 271 900 49 68 117 79 144 - 27,208 20,610 100.0 2,434,327 100.0 5,098 # ETPs [ 10 ] Endnotes The ETP (or exchange traded product) category encompasses any portfolio exposure security that trades intra-day on an exchange. The data for this report are captured from a number of sources by BlackRock including provider websites, fund prospectuses, provider press releases, provider surveys, Bloomberg, the National Stock Exchange, Strategic Insight Simfund, Wind, and the Bank of Israel. All amounts are reported in US dollars. Flows are derived using daily net asset values and shares outstanding using the most recent data we can capture at month-end. For products with cross-listings, we attribute net flows and assets to the primary listings. For Middle East and Africa, net flows data is not available. Assets are derived using shares outstanding and prices at the end of each month (or the closest date available). Where price is not available, we use an approximation. For ETPs listed in Israel, product level detail is not available. Product level information is aggregated by provider, asset class, exposure, region listed and replication method to produce the various analyses in the report. 1. Data is as of February 27, 2014 for Europe and February 28, 2014 for the US, Canada, Latin America, Israel, and some Asia ETPs. Some Asia ETP data is as of January 31, 2014. Global ETP flows and assets are sourced using shares outstanding and net asset values from Bloomberg for the US, Canada, Europe, Latin America and some ETPs in Asia. Middle East ETP assets are sourced from the Bank of Israel. ETP flows and assets in China are sourced from Wind. Inflows for years prior to 2010 are sourced from Strategic Insights Simfund. Asset classifications are assigned by the BlackRock based on product definitions from provider websites and product prospectuses. Other static product information is obtained from provider websites, product prospectuses, provider press releases, and provider surveys. Market returns are sourced from Bloomberg. 2. We classify maturity buckets of a Fixed Income ETP if the fund invests at least 70% of its assets in the corresponding maturity/exposure range: Short maturity includes: underlying security maturities < 3 years and floating rate where the fund holds floating rate securities and/or bank loans. Intermediate includes: 3 years < underlying security maturities < 10 years. The “other” category includes Long-Term: underlying security maturities > 10 years; Broad Maturities: The fund invests in more than two maturity buckets without emphasizing one; Selected Maturities: The fund holds securities with multiple selected range of maturity buckets, i.e. barbell strategy which focuses on the specific short-term and long-term buckets with even weights; and Fixed Maturity: The fund itself has a target maturity date and arranged holdings correspondingly. 3. Source: Eurostat 4. Source: Cabinet Office, Government of Japan 5. Mutual fund data is sourced from EPFR (excluding Money Market funds and ETFs). 2013 and Jan 2014 data is sourced from EPFR monthly data. February 2014 data is sourced from EPFR weekly data for the four weeks ended February 26, 2014. 2013 and Jan 2014 Money Market mutual fund data is sourced from EPFR monthly data. Money Market mutual fund flows is sourced from EPFR weekly data for the four weeks ended February 26, 2014. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual Fund performance. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. ABOUT BLACKROCK BlackRock is a leader in investment management, risk management and advisory services for institutional and retail clients worldwide. At December 31, 2013, BlackRock’s AUM was $4.324 trillion. 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