The How To Find Big Stocks Newsletter

How To Find Big Stocks Newsletter
The How To Find Big Stocks Newsletter
We Turn Waves Into Wealth
May 2013
What’s With These Markets?
Micro-cap, Nano-cap... or should we say nanocrap? It’s not your imagination, small stocks are
lagging.
The bottom line is that small stocks are not keeping up with the big-caps and there’s a reason.
The economy is not taking off like expected. With a 1.8% GDP, it is hardly robust! So why is the
Dow Jones hitting a new high?
The Fed has kept interest rates abnormally low for so long now that big-money (institutions)
need to find a home for their cash. Getting .025% at the bank isn’t how you earn a bonus as a
fund manager. Their money is pouring into big-cap stocks, and now if that weren’t enough, the
big central banks are funneling record amounts into the stock markets as well: Central banks
load up on equities.
Why? Because (a)... they are working (the trend is your friend) and (b)... they can get liquid
quickly if/when Mr Bernanke decides to take the punch bowl away.
There’s another reason why small stocks are lagging. The largest group of investors that buy
small stocks are retail investors. When you’re unemployed, losing your house to foreclosure or
handing over a $100 bill to fill up the tank, there’s just not a lot of money left to go towards
stocks. The majority of the companies that we think are Big come in JUST UNDER the all
important $100M market capitalization threshold for institutional buying. It’s more important than
ever to find companies that institutions will consider bending their rules a little to buy these kind
of stocks under this key threshold.
Destiny Media Technologies DSNY
DSNY is no exception to this, however, and we think significant institutional buying is just
starting to come into it.
Destiny reported their quarterly numbers and followed it with a rather lackluster conference call.
Launch, roll out, beta version, commercial version, etc... even we were confused with where
DSNY stands with Clipstream G2 . We also think one of the biggest problems DSNY has is the
way they communicate their story to the investing community. Part of that problem is caused by
their plans to keep potential competitors at bay until they gain a foothold. The other is the fact
that even though the CEO is a tech genius, he has a hard time “dumbing it down” to investors.
Here’s the way we understand it.
A version of G2 that can be used for the market research industry is available and is generating
revenue TODAY. While this market is not very big, it opens doors to big brands for their
websites and ads. For example, McDonalds does a market research campaign for a new burger
which could lead to them formatting their online ads using G2. Market research agencies
measure success by the number of people who actually play the video, along with the survey
being secure. Because a G2 formatted video plays on all devices and is secure, it offers an
ideal solution.
There's two coyotes standing on top of a mountain. The younger one says to the older one: "Hey pop, let's
say we run down there and grab one of them sheep". The older one says: "No son. Lets walk down and
grab 'em all".
If you take a step back and see what Destiny’s CEO has accomplished with the record industry,
you can certainly get a sense of what he might be doing with the Internet advertising industry.
The recording industry trusts DSNY to distribute, track/trace (and soon play) their multi-billion
dollar content. In 2009, Universal announced they would be using MPE as their “standard” for
music delivery, but wanted additional features before they rolled it out internationally. Four years
later, with the new features finally finished, the enhanced MPE player/infrastructure is set to
“launch”. This should give them a monopoly on a $40M a year business. DSNY gets paid based
on the number of recipients, the new platform, and the renewed Universal deal multiplies the
number of recipients by a factor of TEN! Almost every dollar over their current $4M in revenue
goes right to their bottom line. Equally important, all of the products are automated and have
already been expensed. But let’s take a closer look at what they have done. Destiny has a
secure, efficient and playing platform for the digital music industry. The record labels asked for
specific features and using their patented technology, Destiny has indeed built it for them. We
believe they are doing the very same thing for the BIG advertising agencies.
Big picture...advertisers have a vested interest in using G2
Advertisers can charge higher rates because they can assure an ad will reach 99% of the
audience. The brands will pay higher rates to insure that their ad is seen by 99% of the viewers,
therefore the ad agency sees their profit margins skyrocket. These same agencies won’t need
to make and store several versions of the ad to accommodate all devices... plus they save a
fortune on bandwidth costs by reusing the stream.
Our understanding is that the current version of G2 is ready for Internet advertising and they
could (and might already be) generating revenue from advertisers. But of course, that is our
opinion at this point. However, our original vision on DSNY and current opinion also includes
the following:
We think DSNY is working with some of the largest ad agencies in the world. Remember, they
already partner with Dentsu, the goliath out of Japan! What if Destiny is building this same type
of platform for streaming video ads? We believe they are doing just that. Clipstream G2 has
some features that give a much better summary of user behavior, which is in huge demand from
the agencies. Rather than offer a simple generic version of G2 for Internet advertisers, DSNY
could offer or build a customized platform that utilizes some of their proprietary
watermarking/digital track/trace technology. This is in addition to the capability of playing on
every device and OS. Instead of a $40M market for music distribution, with G2 they could
become the premier player in a $2B a year streaming video ad market! (source Streaming
Media.com) We think Destiny’s CEO is trying to establish the same type of trust and platform
with the Internet advertising players, as he did with the major record labels.
It is reasonable to say that in the next 6 months, Destiny with G2 and MPE, could become the
defacto standard digital content distribution platform for TWO major industries. We will get to the
second industry in a second.
While most may think of Google as a search engine company, they generate their revenues
from Internet advertising. When you do a search, look at a map or play a video on YouTube,
ads are presented. Google makes money when these ads are displayed and clicked on. One of
the key strategies moving forward for Google is to replace all of their text ads with video. Why?
Google can charge more for a video ad, as these have a much higher clickthrough rate. In order
to do that, they would need to make sure that every device and every OS could play them. They
would also have to make several versions to accommodate every surfer, just like they do with
their videos on YouTube. Again, what application can do that? To get an idea of the sheer
volume and staggering numbers, along with a potential idea of the associated transcribing costs
to YouTube, check these stats out:
http://www.youtube.com/yt/press/statistics.html
An even Bigger picture
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/destiny-media-tsxv-dsy-otcqx-211102701.html
In the recent DSNY Universal press release we picked out something pretty big.
The initial 24 month term includes a guaranteed minimum monthly required usage, and covers
transmission of music and music videos by UMG labels, Universal affiliates and Universal licensees.
The record labels, using DSNY’s watermark technology can track and trace any song on the
Internet. Furthermore, when G2 is complete they will be able to track, trace and PLAY their
videos on ANY device or OS... this includes TV! YouTube’s baby brother VEVO, streams 4
billion videos every month. That’s up from nearly nothing 18 months ago. VEVO is a joint
venture music video website operated by Sony Music Entertainment, Universal Music Group
and Abu Dhabi Media, with EMI licensing its content to the group without taking an ownership
stake. The videos on VEVO are syndicated across the web, with Google and VEVO sharing the
advertising revenue. VEVO offers music videos from three of the "big four" major record labels:
Universal Music Group, Sony Music Entertainment, and EMI. (Source Wiki)
Our subscribers may have started to notice more videos on YouTube being removed due to
copyright infringement. Universal Music is currently suing YouTube for copyright infringement
issues. Source See why Destiny’s contract renewal with Universal is so important now?
The shift is already starting and DSNY’s technologies give the record labels control of their
content AND the ability to play them too. This is a key point for Destiny shareholders and is
further evidenced by the Universal renewal language we highlighted in the above press release.
HTFBSN also feels confident that the other principals in this collaborative effort know all about
Destiny.
DSNY is building the platform that enables record labels to securely transmit songs and videos
in a controlled environment which can be played on any device or OS with G2. They are also
building a platform that enables Internet advertisers to distribute their streaming video ads in a
secure manner, while confidently knowing they can be seen/played on every device and OS.
Speaking of institutional buying, DSNY will be presenting at the East Coast IDEAS Investor
Conference on Wednesday May 15, 2013 at the Metro Meeting Center in Boston, MA.
Conference sponsors collectively have more than $100 Billion in assets under management.
These institutions are the type that can make DSNY a very Big stock.
In our initial highlight over a year ago, we said we have never seen a nano-cap with
technologies that had the potential to disrupt so many industries as DSNY. We will feel even
more confident with our original call and vision on Destiny once the commercial version of G2
has launched.
BIO-key BKYI
Last week on Apple’s earnings conference call we learned that the next iPhone will be delayed
until the Fall. All the hype for fingerprint adoption being triggered by this consumer device will
have to wait a bit longer. As Mike Elgan writes, that “the ‘i’ in iPhone will stand for ‘’identity,’”.
He thinks that the fingerprint tech will be deployed in concert with the long-anticipated NFC
chip—which might explain why this has not been incorporated sooner. “I believe Apple sees the
NFC chip and fingerprint scanner as part of a Grand Strategy: To use the iPhone as the solution
to the digital identity problem,” he writes. People have been talking about phones as a basic unit
of identity for years, but Elgan thinks the time is (almost) now, and that Apple is the company to
do it. Source
A couple things to keep in mind. The Android operating system is roughly 70% of the world
market share and Apple has only 19%. Source The majority of the population can’t afford a new
$600 mobile phone every six months. Second, it was Samsung that introduced near field
communication (NFC) into their phone first.
In the meantime BIO-key should steadily continue adding medical facilities and banks to the list
of their clients. The key thing to remember here is, while an Apple iPhone will get the Street’s
attention on fingerprint scanning, HTFBSN subscribers will be way ahead of the curve! Our
readers will already know the nanocap with the technology that allows ANY device and any OS
to tap into the cloud enabling fingerprint verification. We see fingerprint scanning to be as
common as the 2-finger zoom.
J.W. Intelligence, a site we review regularly for upcoming trends, states the following: biometric
authentication is among our 100 Things to Watch in 2013. And as part of a move away from
basic passwords (Passwords 2.0 is another of our Things to Watch). Fingerprint authentication
isn’t just about securing personal devices but also may hold the key to verifiable mobile
payments, airport security and biometric ATM machines. Source
Avoid the iPhone hype...the number of devices (outside of mobile phones) that will have
fingerprint scanning is a tremendous market that BKYI is ALREADY penetrating. Think banks,
hospitals, retailers, airports, buildings, medical facilities, credit cards, State and Federal
facilities.
BIO-key showcased their ID Director for CA SiteMinder® and its uniquely interoperable and
scalable fingerprint biometric authentication technologies, including the latest solutions for
mobile authentication, at CA World 2013, in Las Vegas, Nevada, April 21st-24th.
22nd Century XXII
In 1903, a German named Ludwig Roselius discovered and patented a way to remove caffeine
from coffee beans. This discovery created an entirely new category for coffee.
It was first sold in Germany and many other European countries in 1905–1906 under the name
Kaffee HAG (short for Kaffee Handels-Aktien-Gesellschaft, or Coffee Trading Public Company).
In France, the brand name became "Sanka", derived from the French words sans caféine
("without caffeine"). The brand came to the United States in 1909–1910, where it was first
marketed under the name "Dekafa" or "Dekofa" by an American sales agent. (Source
Wikipedia).
Not to be outdone by the above example, there was another transformation to the consumer
goods industry which created another gigantic “category”.
In the late 1980’s, there were two major reports that came out identifying dietary fat as the
single most important change that needed to be made in order to improve diet and health. The
resulting transformation gave us products that were created or modified to be low fat, reduced
fat or fat free. The ability to create consumer goods with varying fat content was very disruptive
to the packaged goods industry.
When taking into consideration the above two examples of gigantic new categories/industries
being created, and relating those with XXII’s ability to modify the amount of nicotine in tobacco,
we are witnessing another major disruption in the consumer goods industry.
Dutch Magic...
XXII recently announced that its subsidiary; Goodrich Tobacco Company has entered into an
exclusive distribution agreement with Wilshire Marketing BV for the DUTCH MAGIC™ brand in The
Netherlands, Belgium and Luxemburg, known as Benelux.
The very low nicotine Dutch Magic brand style contains approximately 95% less nicotine than typical
“ultra light” and “light” cigarettes. The Netherlands, Belgium and Luxemburg are the first European
countries in which very low nicotine tobacco products will be available to consumers.
Interestingly enough, the Netherlands was one of the first countries that started offering
decaffeinated coffee too.
Our understanding is that this is the absolute first time a very low nicotine cigarette has been
offered to consumers outside the United States. We think every major tobacco manufacturer
will want to be able to offer this new type of cigarette to all of their customers outside the U. S.
Philip Morris spent $300M trying to do what 22nd Century IS doing now. That fact alone should
give us an idea on potential valuation. In addition to that, there are other catalysts which could
happen at any time. First, the company could get a partner and submit the VLN cigarette into
Phase 3 trials. Second, the F.D.A. could give the go ahead for a “modified risk cigarette” which
would give XXII a veritable monopoly on a $60B industry! Finally, while we wait for the above
two catalysts, HTFBSN subscribers can rest assured that XXII is continuing their pursuit of
licensing deals for their modified tobacco products and patented technology outside the United
States.
This is a rather unique situation. We have seen plenty of companies that have intellectual
property around a very disruptive idea or technology without an actual working product.
However, in this case we have a company that not only has some VERY VALUABLE IP (we
believe), but also has products that are available today to sell!
In January of 2013, XXII applied to the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax Trade Bureau of the United
States Treasury Department (TTB) for a federal permit to manufacture its own tobacco
products. It is our thinking that if/when they receive this permit, this would pressure Big Tobacco
to either license this technology or just buy the company out.
Why? For starters, the company does not need to restrict their labeling of modified cigarettes
outside the United States, so there really is NO COMPETITION for offering these types of
cigarettes. Secondly, if Big Tobacco did want to offer a very low nicotine cigarette outside the
U. S. (the big countries where XXII has patents), they would need to license their technology to
do so.
So here you have a company with a $30M market cap that has shown the capability to negotiate
a substantial exclusive distribution agreement already. Consequently, if the Big Tobacco
industry wanted to offer a VLN or VHN (very high nicotine cigarette) outside the U. S., the
licensing fees alone could (IN OUR OPINION) be greater than XXII’s current valuation.
It only takes one forward thinking Big Tobacco company to realize that this would be a VERY
cheap way to monopolize the modified nicotine category outside the U. S. today. It would also
allow some Big Tobacco entity the ability to monopolize the “modified risk” cigarette industry
if/when the F.D.A. gives the green light right here at home. Imagine the possibilities if more than
one of Big Tobacco's giants get interested in XXII!
In addition, let’s not forget the great trial results Century 22’s X-22 had with Pfizer’s Chantix
drug! Some Big Tobacco player could buy XXII, keep their Goodrich Tobacco division and
simply sell off the Hercules Pharmaceutical division. We think XXII offers a very Big Stock
opportunity for those that can see the Big picture here.
The story has only gotten bigger since our initial highlight called Light This Fuse
Here’s even more as to why we think XXII offers a very Big Stock opportunity. Many subscribers
have emailed with questions about the F.D.A. approval/submission for X-22. We want to stress
that while that could be a very nice revenue stream and could offer a lucrative licensing
opportunity, the BIG revenue opportunity with XXII is selling/licensing modified nicotine
products.
We think big tobacco wants, but more importantly needs, what XXII has.
A Bank of America/Merrill Lynch analyst published a report on Modified Risk Tobacco Products
(MRTPs) highlighting the impact that it will have on the $748B annual worldwide tobacco
industry. Louis Camilleri, the CEO of Philip Morris International called this:
"the very real potential to not only be a game changer, but also be the key to unlock several
hitherto virgin territories, most notably the huge Chinese market".
It is expected that the China National Tobacco Corporation CNTC, the country’s tobacco
monopoly that also just happens to be one of the most profitable companies in the world, to
eventually be sold to a Big Tobacco transnational.
As stated, due to pressures from the WHO and WTO, it is expected that within the next few
years, CNTC will have to sell itself to one of the Big Four tobacco transnationals. Big Tobacco
is salivating to obtain a real grasp of this market. 1 in 3 cigarettes sold globally is sold in
China.
Our readers know these already covered facts; yes in China, which is the world's largest
cigarette market, XXII owns exclusive rights to SIX issued patents and FOUR patent
applications. Additionally, there is NO restriction on packaging in China.
If/when XXII receives regulatory approval to manufacture and sell cigarettes, we believe there
will be an immediate influx of institutional buying.
Here’s another piece we wrote that might help readers to understand the XXII story a little bit
better.
xxii-set-to-disrupt-several-multibillion-dollar-industries
It is our opinion that the recent selling is from the recent financing done with Sabby. On March
29, the registration of Sabby’s shares became effective. While the “Dutch Magic” press release
was in our opinion game changing for the company, we think Sabby was a big seller into that
announcement. A large short-term seller does not change the XXII story.
We have seen it happen many times before. A stock with disruptive technology will have one or
two shakeouts before it leaves the launch pad. “This shakeout creates the “U” in the cup and handle
formation. The “U” are is important because it scares out or wears out the remaining weak holders and
takes other speculators’ attention away from the stock”...from the book How To Make Money in
Stocks by William O’Neil
We highly encourage HTFBSN subscribers to fully understand the XXII picture. Once you do,
we think you will gain a true appreciation of why we think this represents a very BIG investment
opportunity!
Visualant Incorporated VSUL
We were happy to see that not only did Sumitomo Precision Products extend their licensing deal
with Visualant, but that SPP’s General Manager of Business Development was named to the
Board as well!
The spectroscopy is a $1B market based on the light we all can see. Conversely, when
compared with VSUL’s ChromaID solution, spectroscopy just does not pass the eye test.
Visualant’s technology is cheaper, faster and can do things spectroscopy can’t do.
We advise reading VSUL’s latest investor presentation, found here Pages 4,5 and 6 are very
informative.
What industries are testing ChromaID and what stage are they at? You can find that on Page
14.
According to Optics.org it appears Visualant’s ChromaID is participating in the the Qualcomm
Tricorder XPRIZE, a $10M global competition launched in January 2012 to stimulate integration
of diagnostic technologies into a consumer device, for proof that the concept is attractive and
potentially robust.
Here’s a great summary of how ChromaID works:
The Cyclops scanner features 32 LEDs ranging from 350 nm to 1450 nm. Each one is fired at
25 distinct current steps to produce different wavelengths of light, and the resulting reflectance
is sampled by four photodiodes, yielding a grand total of 3,200 data points in a
characteristic spectral fingerprint.
This data cloud is then matched with existing fingerprints loaded into the system for
identification. Thanks to specially designed sample cells, Visualant can apply the technique to
samples in solid, liquid or gaseous form.
We highlighted Applied DNA APDN and their botanical DNA applications several months ago.
It now trades at what we think is an absurd market cap, especially since an identifier has to be
added in order to be detected or verified. We wanted to alert you to another security/detection
play, not because we think it has Big stock potential, but because of its valuation. LaserLock
Technologies LLTI does the same thing as APDN. They add a special pigment to packaging,
gaming chips and currency to detect counterfeit items. They generated $17K in revenue last
year and currently carry a $40M market cap.
No identifier needs to added in order for ChromaID to detect, identify or verify. In addition, both
the actual item (think pill), AND packaging can be verified using ChromaID. How can you detect
if that powder is ricin using these other applications? Can you check your blood sugar level? Of
course the answers are yes with Visualant’s solution, with the applications for ChromaID being
endless. The real key for our subscribers and early investors, is that VSUL’s endless
applications all use the already existing identifier for detection, unlike APDN and LLTI.
With a current market cap of approximately $12M, and while we may be a tad bit early,
HTFBSN thinks VSUL offers a very Big Stock opportunity.
Other nuggets:
We didn't forget about our pure play on the marijuana wave. This tiny company could become
the “toll booth” for this massive wave, but we want to first make sure our due diligence is in
order. We will send out an alert if we decide to highlight.
We are looking at GelTech GLTC, a company with some pretty disruptive technology in its own
right. They have two products we are interested in: (1) FireIce, a fire suppression/retardant
product and (2) Soil2O, a moisture retention product which can hold up to 400 times its weight
in water. Soil2O is so disruptive with its ability to retain moisture, they have a division setup to
test hurricane diversion. In addition, GLTC’s Chief Technology Officer is the first person to
patent a method for modifying weather.
The Big Stockular.
Last month Google announced they would be stopping their Reader application on July 1. Many
have emailed asking what RSS Feed application to use instead. There are a few that work
similar to Google’s Reader (although not as easy to use), they include:
www.theoldreader.com
www.feedly.com
Both of these offer a way to transfer your existing feeds into theirs. There is another popular site
(www.digg.com) that is building an RSS feed application that will mimic the Google Reader. We
will keep you posted.
until next month...
Scott P. Shaffer
(aka The Pondering Primate)
Michael Keaton
Associate Editor & Director of Research
Learn how $10K turned into $2.8M in 2 years with the “BigStockular” tool.
Get the book now www.howtofindbigstocks.com
If you have a wave, a company or technology that you think has “Big Stock” potential, please
email us at bigstockbook@gmail.com
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