International Trade Centre Market Analysis and Research section

International Trade Centre
Market Analysis and Research section
A presentation to: Virtual Institute
Study Tour for Colombian Students
By: Helen Lassen
Date: October 2009
What is ITC?
The UN body for design of policy
recommendations to achieve
economic and social development
through trade and investment.
• Mission
The forum to negotiate multilateral
trade rules
rules, monitor their
implementation and handle trade
disputes
ITC works with local and regional
institutions and businesspeople to
promote exports and trade.
ITC enables small business export success in developing
countries by providing, with partners, trade development
solutions to the private sector, trade support institutions
and policy-makers
4
EXPORT IMPACT FOR GOOD
We want developing countries to derive sustainable social,
environmental and economic impact from their exports
IMPACTS
MDG Goals
ITC
OUTPUTS
Economic growth &
related distribution
of wealth
Job creation
EXPORT IMPACT
FOR GOOD
Equal access for
women, youth &
poor communities
Social
Social,
Economic &
Environmental
Sustainability
ITC – 100% AID FOR TRADE
5
ITC Core Competencies
Activities
ITC Clients
ITC Beneficiaries
Policy
Makers
Business and Trade Policy
Export Impact for Good
Export Strategy
Trade Intelligence
Trade Support Institution Strengthening
Exporter Competitiveness
One
ITC Development
Outcomes
Trade
Support
Institutions
Small and
Medium-Sized
Exporters
Business
Community
One
Generating sustainable
incomes and livelihoods
especially for poor
households, by connecting
enterprises to global markets
Many
WORKING TOGETHER – UNCTAD, WTO, ITC
Research
&
Policy
Rules
of
Trade
Business
&
Exports
6
Challenges & Opportunities
• Global economic weakness
•
Reinforcing support for export market and product diversification and working against
protectionism by promoting information transparency in trade, market access &
investment
•
Reinforcing alignment of trade policies to business priorities
• Millennium Development Goals
•
Ensuring programs respond to: market access, poverty, gender, environment etc
• Climate change & environmental sustainability
•
Increasing transparency on new trade opportunities & combating new NTMs
• Multilateral trade liberalization
•
Reinforcing with business & policy makers the need to complete DDA
ITC Resources
Biennium Income 2000-2009 ($ millions)
Expenditure 2008 ($ millions)
$66
100%
$70
160
131.8
140
$
$60
138.8
124.1
120
$50
$40
$30
$29
44%
80
40
$10
20
72.3
66.9
75.9
76.0
52.4
60
$20
31.9
51.8
55.9
41.3
62.8
RB
XB
Total
35.1
0
$0
RB
•
•
93.7
100
$37
56%
XB
2000-01
Total RB & XB
2002-03
Estimated XB income for 2010-11 biennium: $75.5 million
Seeking 17 new RB posts + 2 reclassifications: $4.9 million
7
2004-05
2006-07
2008-09
ITC Organisational Chart
Market Analysis and Research Scope & Competencies
I. Market Analysis Tools
II. Tailored Analysis
III. Capacity Building and
Training
Trade Map
Trade Competitiveness
Assessment
Introduction to Market Analysis
Market Access Map
Export Potential Assessment
Preparation of Market Profiles
Investment Map
Export Opportunity Scan
Training–of–Trainers
Trade Competitiveness Map
Sector Competitiveness Scan
Mentoring for Tailored
Analyses
Customised analyses
Face to face and E-training
Face-to-face
E training
Customised training
8
Research & Development
Improving trade transparency through collaborations
Global Enabling
Trade Report
MDG Gap Task
Force
ITC
C collaborating with
World Economic Forum
ITC collaborating with
UN agencies
World Trade
Indicators
World Tariff Profile
ITC collaborating
g with
WTO and UNCTAD
ITC collaborating
with the World Bank
ITC's Market Analysis Tools
Enhancing the transparency of
global trade with statistics on
trade, market access
and FDI
9
Access ITC’s Tools – Free to Developing Countries & Partners
Convert Data into Actionable Analysis
Free Access to users based in developing countries and developing country representatives
based in developed countries thanks to financial contributions from the ITC Global Trust
Fund and the World Bank
Features of the data presented in the tools:
• Global – nearly all countries are included, especially developing countries
• Detailed – where possible data is available for products at the most detailed national level
• Current – monthly, quarterly and current year trade data is available for many countries
• Meaningful – we have calculated various indicators to make it easy for you to analyse the
data. Indicators include: trends, market shares, real protection levels and rankings
Features of our web-based analysis interfaces:
• Easy to navigate – use menus, tables or maps to search for information
• Facilitate comparisons – compare data of alternative suppliers, markets or products
• Easy to analyze – present data in bubble graphs, tables or maps
10
Registration statistics to MAT tools (oct.09)
67,200
Total users
219
Total number of countries & territories represented
Developed
Countries
12%
Europe
Oceania
10%
1%
LDC
6%
Africa
15%
America
50%
Developing
Countries
82%
Asia
24%
Users Repartition between Developing
Countries, LDC and Developed Countries
Geographical Repartition of user
registered in MAT portal
Capacity Building … 2004 – 2009
World
+ 8000 people
trained
83 countries
320 workshops
11
Register to access ITC’s Market
Analysis Tools
Free to users from developing countries
Thanks to financial contributions from ITC's Global Trust Fund and the
World Bank, as of the 1st January 2008, all users from developing
countries and territories may access ITC's market analysis tools free
of charge.
charge
http://www.intracen.org/marketanalysis
12
13
Free to users from developing countries
Some trends
trends...
...of the current trading environment
14
$13 700 000 000 000
$13,700,000,000,000
or $420,000 per second
• Globalization has accelerated over the last 20 years
• The volume of trade as a percentage of global GDP has more
than doubled since 1960
More dynamic than the economy
World Trade vs. GDP Growth
13%
1960-2007
11%
9%
GDP
Trade
7%
5%
3%
1%
1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1991-94 1995-98
1999
2000
2001
-1%
Source: WTO
15
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
... but it's not immune to the downturn...
Annual Growth of Imports by Level of Development of Countries
2002-2007
30%
25%
Developed Countries
Developing Countries
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: ITC Trade Map
...although downturn is not uniform...
GDP and merchandise trade by region, 2005-07
Annual % change at constant prices
Source: WTO
16
2007
... and 2009 will be a tough year
Growth of trade volumes
Annual % change
18
Developing country exports
15
12
9
6
3
World trade
0
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
-3
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2009
Global trade patterns are changing...
• Trade flows within regions account for a higher share of world
trade than flows between regions
• Asia Pacific & EU trade more within the region
g
• However many regions trade more with other regions than
internally: Africa, South and Central America, Middle East and
CIS
17
...with developing countries gaining ground...
Share of Global Trade by Level of Development
% of Total Trade
Source: ITC analysis based on world trade statistics
...and "south-south" trade growing fast...
Top 25 markets for developing countries
#
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Imports
2007
5,186
1,126
1,108
573
422
277
197
166
139
111
98
88
80
80
76
63
62
52
49
37
35
34
27
21
17
16
Importers
TOTAL
EU(27)
United States of America
China
Japan
Hong Kong (SARC)
Republic of Korea
Singapore
India
Chinese Taipei
Canada
Malaysia
Thailand
Mexico
Australia
R
Russian
i F
Federation
d ti
Brazil
Turkey
Indonesia
South Africa
Philippines
Saudi Arabia
Argentina
Pakistan
Switzerland
Colombia
18
Growth
2003-07
101%
112%
71%
158%
77%
68%
134%
109%
446%
102%
113%
109%
112%
149%
122%
323%
216%
215%
156%
219%
80%
191%
263%
156%
90%
197%
Share
in Total
100.0%
21.7%
21.4%
11 1%
11.1%
8.1%
5.4%
3.8%
3.2%
2.7%
2.1%
1.9%
1.7%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1 2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.0%
1.0%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
Source: ITC Trade Map
…but mostly intra-region…
Asia Pacific
Intra-Trade: $ 1’121bn
or 55% of S-S Trade
$ 66bn
$ 50bn
$ 45bn
$ 109bn
Latin America
$ 256bn
$ 10bn
Africa
Intra-Trade: $126bn
or 6% of S-S Trade
Intra-Trade: $27 bn
or 1% of S-S Trade
$ 7bn
$ 8bn
$ 16bn
$ 109bn
Middle East
and Arab
$ 6bn
$ 12bn
Intra-Trade: $62bn
or 3% of S-S Trade
Total 2007 SS-S Trade: $2’157 billion
Source: ITC
The mix of products traded is changing...
Global trade by type of commodity
% of total trade
80%
Agricultural
Mining
Manufacturing
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: ITC Trade Map
19
2005
2006
2007
... but not all sectors are equally successful
Top export industries for highperformance developing countries
Top export industries for struggling
developing countries
(but not from struggling developing countries)
(but not from struggling developing countries)
Electrical, electronic equipment
Cotton
Machinery boilers,
Machinery,
boilers etc.
etc
Wood and art of wood,
wood wood charcoal
Precision instruments
Other made textile articles, worn clothing
Plastics and articles thereof
Fish, crustaceans, mulluscs
Organic chemicals
Edible vegetables, roots & tubers
Articles of iron and steel
Edible fruits, nuts, melons
Copper and articles thereof
Raw hides, skins, leather
Furniture, lighting, prefab buildings
Cereals
Toys, games, sports requisites
Cocoa & cocoa preparations
Ships, boats
Coffee, tea, mate and spices
Footwear, gaiters, parts thereof
Nickel and articles thereof
The best performing exports from developing
country exporters tend to be manufactured
products, as opposed to commodities
Trade in services grows quickly...
Trade in Services as % of GDP
12
1975 – 2007
11
10
9
8
7
Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank
20
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
6
...significantly due to FDI...
• In spite of quick growth in traded value, over the past 30 years
the share of services, excluding Mode 3 (commercial presence),
in global trade has been quite stable around 20%
• BUT, Mode 3 is not captured in current trade in services
statistics
• FDI data shows that more than half of FDI flows are in the
services sector
• FDI keeps on growing globally...
…which is ever more important
FDI as % of World GDP
1985 – 2007
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank
21
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
0.0%
Market access issues are changing:
• Trade agreements proliferate...
Number of Free Trade Agreements Notified to WTO
200
1958 – 2009
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
1958
0
Source: WTO
… tariffs tend to decrease…
Applied MFN Tariffs, All Products, By Level of Income
12
2001
2007
10
8
6
4
2
0
Low
Med-low
Medium
Source: World Trade Indicators, World Bank
22
Med-High
High
… making NTMs the major obstacles to trade
NTM Frequency
By Level of Income, 2001
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Low
Med-low
Medium
Source: World Trade Indicators, World Bank
23
Med-High
High