COVER SHEET FOR PROPOSAL TO THE NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION NSF 09-505 09/18/09

COVER SHEET FOR PROPOSAL TO THE NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION
PROGRAM ANNOUNCEMENT/SOLICITATION NO./CLOSING DATE/if not in response to a program announcement/solicitation enter NSF 09-29
NSF 09-505
FOR NSF USE ONLY
NSF PROPOSAL NUMBER
09/18/09
FOR CONSIDERATION BY NSF ORGANIZATION UNIT(S)
(Indicate the most specific unit known, i.e. program, division, etc.)
OISE - PIRE
DATE RECEIVED NUMBER OF COPIES DIVISION ASSIGNED FUND CODE DUNS# (Data Universal Numbering System)
FILE LOCATION
625447982
EMPLOYER IDENTIFICATION NUMBER (EIN) OR
TAXPAYER IDENTIFICATION NUMBER (TIN)
SHOW PREVIOUS AWARD NO. IF THIS IS
A RENEWAL
AN ACCOMPLISHMENT-BASED RENEWAL
IS THIS PROPOSAL BEING SUBMITTED TO ANOTHER FEDERAL
AGENCY?
YES
NO
IF YES, LIST ACRONYM(S)
816010045
NAME OF ORGANIZATION TO WHICH AWARD SHOULD BE MADE
ADDRESS OF AWARDEE ORGANIZATION, INCLUDING 9 DIGIT ZIP CODE
Montana State University
309 Montana Hall
Bozeman, MT. 597172470
Montana State University
AWARDEE ORGANIZATION CODE (IF KNOWN)
0025320000
NAME OF PERFORMING ORGANIZATION, IF DIFFERENT FROM ABOVE
ADDRESS OF PERFORMING ORGANIZATION, IF DIFFERENT, INCLUDING 9 DIGIT ZIP CODE
PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE (IF KNOWN)
IS AWARDEE ORGANIZATION (Check All That Apply)
(See GPG II.C For Definitions)
TITLE OF PROPOSED PROJECT
MINORITY BUSINESS
IF THIS IS A PRELIMINARY PROPOSAL
WOMAN-OWNED BUSINESS THEN CHECK HERE
WildFIRE PIRE: Feedbacks and consequences of altered fire regimes in
the face of climate and land-use change in Tasmania, New Zealand, and
the western U.S.
REQUESTED AMOUNT
PROPOSED DURATION (1-60 MONTHS)
3,798,547
$
SMALL BUSINESS
FOR-PROFIT ORGANIZATION
60
REQUESTED STARTING DATE
01/04/10
months
SHOW RELATED PRELIMINARY PROPOSAL NO.
IF APPLICABLE
0929375
CHECK APPROPRIATE BOX(ES) IF THIS PROPOSAL INCLUDES ANY OF THE ITEMS LISTED BELOW
BEGINNING INVESTIGATOR (GPG I.G.2)
HUMAN SUBJECTS (GPG II.D.7) Human Subjects Assurance Number
DISCLOSURE OF LOBBYING ACTIVITIES (GPG II.C.1.e)
Exemption Subsection
PROPRIETARY & PRIVILEGED INFORMATION (GPG I.D, II.C.1.d)
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIVE ACTIVITIES: COUNTRY/COUNTRIES INVOLVED
HISTORIC PLACES (GPG II.C.2.j)
(GPG II.C.2.j)
EAGER* (GPG II.D.2)
AS
RAPID** (GPG II.D.1)
VERTEBRATE ANIMALS (GPG II.D.6) IACUC App. Date
PI/PD POSTAL ADDRESS
Office of Vice President for Research
PI/PD FAX NUMBER
207 Montana Hall
Bozeman, MT 59717
United States
406-994-6923
NAMES (TYPED)
NZ
HIGH RESOLUTION GRAPHICS/OTHER GRAPHICS WHERE EXACT COLOR
REPRESENTATION IS REQUIRED FOR PROPER INTERPRETATION (GPG I.G.1)
PHS Animal Welfare Assurance Number
PI/PD DEPARTMENT
or IRB App. Date
High Degree
Yr of Degree
Telephone Number
Electronic Mail Address
PhD
1983
406-994-6910
whitlock@montana.edu
DPhil
1983
406-994-2381
daig@montana.edu
PhD
1990
406-994-0211
bmax@montana.edu
PhD
2007
406-579-9995
dmcwethy@montana.edu
PI/PD NAME
Cathy L Whitlock
CO-PI/PD
Dennis I Aig
CO-PI/PD
Bruce D Maxwell
CO-PI/PD
David B McWethy
CO-PI/PD
Page 1 of 2
CERTIFICATION PAGE
Certification for Authorized Organizational Representative or Individual Applicant:
By signing and submitting this proposal, the Authorized Organizational Representative or Individual Applicant is: (1) certifying that statements made herein are true and complete to the
best of his/her knowledge; and (2) agreeing to accept the obligation to comply with NSF award terms and conditions if an award is made as a result of this application. Further, the
applicant is hereby providing certifications regarding debarment and suspension, drug-free workplace, and lobbying activities (see below), nondiscrimination, and flood hazard insurance
(when applicable) as set forth in the NSF Proposal & Award Policies & Procedures Guide, Part I: the Grant Proposal Guide (GPG) (NSF 09-29). Willful provision of false information in this
application and its supporting documents or in reports required under an ensuing award is a criminal offense (U. S. Code, Title 18, Section 1001).
Conflict of Interest Certification
In addition, if the applicant institution employs more than fifty persons, by electronically signing the NSF Proposal Cover Sheet, the Authorized Organizational Representative of the applicant
institution is certifying that the institution has implemented a written and enforced conflict of interest policy that is consistent with the provisions of the NSF Proposal & Award Policies &
Procedures Guide, Part II, Award & Administration Guide (AAG) Chapter IV.A; that to the best of his/her knowledge, all financial disclosures required by that conflict of interest policy have
been made; and that all identified conflicts of interest will have been satisfactorily managed, reduced or eliminated prior to the institution’s expenditure of any funds under the award, in
accordance with the institution’s conflict of interest policy. Conflicts which cannot be satisfactorily managed, reduced or eliminated must be dislosed to NSF.
Drug Free Work Place Certification
By electronically signing the NSF Proposal Cover Sheet, the Authorized Organizational Representative or Individual Applicant is providing the Drug
Free Work Place Certification contained in Exhibit II-3 of the Grant Proposal Guide.
Debarment and Suspension Certification
(If answer "yes", please provide explanation.)
Is the organization or its principals presently debarred, suspended, proposed for debarment, declared ineligible, or voluntarily excluded
from covered transactions by any Federal department or agency?
Yes
No
By electronically signing the NSF Proposal Cover Sheet, the Authorized Organizational Representative or Individual Applicant is providing the
Debarment and Suspension Certification contained in Exhibit II-4 of the Grant Proposal Guide.
Certification Regarding Lobbying
The following certification is required for an award of a Federal contract, grant, or cooperative agreement exceeding $100,000 and for an award of a Federal loan or a commitment providing
for the United States to insure or guarantee a loan exceeding $150,000.
Certification for Contracts, Grants, Loans and Cooperative Agreements
The undersigned certifies, to the best of his or her knowledge and belief, that:
(1) No federal appropriated funds have been paid or will be paid, by or on behalf of the undersigned, to any person for influencing or attempting to influence an officer or employee of any
agency, a Member of Congress, an officer or employee of Congress, or an employee of a Member of Congress in connection with the awarding of any federal contract, the making of any
Federal grant, the making of any Federal loan, the entering into of any cooperative agreement, and the extension, continuation, renewal, amendment, or modification of any Federal
contract, grant, loan, or cooperative agreement.
(2) If any funds other than Federal appropriated funds have been paid or will be paid to any person for influencing or attempting to influence an officer or employee of any agency, a
Member of Congress, an officer or employee of Congress, or an employee of a Member of Congress in connection with this Federal contract, grant, loan, or cooperative agreement, the
undersigned shall complete and submit Standard Form-LLL, ‘‘Disclosure of Lobbying Activities,’’ in accordance with its instructions.
(3) The undersigned shall require that the language of this certification be included in the award documents for all subawards at all tiers including subcontracts, subgrants, and contracts
under grants, loans, and cooperative agreements and that all subrecipients shall certify and disclose accordingly.
This certification is a material representation of fact upon which reliance was placed when this transaction was made or entered into. Submission of this certification is a prerequisite for
making or entering into this transaction imposed by section 1352, Title 31, U.S. Code. Any person who fails to file the required certification shall be subject to a civil penalty of not less
than $10,000 and not more than $100,000 for each such failure.
Certification Regarding Nondiscrimination
By electronically signing the NSF Proposal Cover Sheet, the Authorized Organizational Representative is providing the Certification Regarding
Nondiscrimination contained in Exhibit II-6 of the Grant Proposal Guide.
Certification Regarding Flood Hazard Insurance
Two sections of the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968 (42 USC §4012a and §4106) bar Federal agencies from giving financial assistance for acquisition or
construction purposes in any area identified by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) as having special flood hazards unless the:
(1)
(2)
community in which that area is located participates in the national flood insurance program; and
building (and any related equipment) is covered by adequate flood insurance.
By electronically signing the NSF Proposal Cover Sheet, the Authorized Organizational Representative or Individual Applicant located in FEMA-designated special flood hazard areas is
certifying that adequate flood insurance has been or will be obtained in the following situations:
(1)
(2)
for NSF grants for the construction of a building or facility, regardless of the dollar amount of the grant; and
for other NSF Grants when more than $25,000 has been budgeted in the proposal for repair, alteration or improvement (construction) of a building or facility.
AUTHORIZED ORGANIZATIONAL REPRESENTATIVE
SIGNATURE
DATE
NAME
Mr. Philip Smith
TELEPHONE NUMBER
406-994-6268
07/20/06
ELECTRONIC MAIL ADDRESS
FAX NUMBER
grantsgov@montana.edu
406-994-7951
fm1207rrs-07
* EAGER - EArly-concept Grants for Exploratory Research
** RAPID - Grants for Rapid Response Research
Page 2 of 2
1. WildFIRE PIRE: Feedbacks and consequences of altered fire regimes in the face of climate and
land-use change in Tasmania, New Zealand, and the western U.S.
Lead PI and Lead Institution: Cathy Whitlock, Montana State University; Co-PIs: Dennis Aig, Bruce
Maxwell, Dave McWethy (Montana State Univ.); Sr. Personnel: Philip Higuera (Univ. Idaho); Robert
Keane (USDA Forest Service Fire Sciences Lab); Thomas Veblen (Univ. Colorado); International
Collaborators: David Bowman (Univ. Tasmania); Geoff Cary & Simon Haberle (Australian National
Univ.); Matt McGlone & Janet Wilmshurst (Landcare Research NZ); George Perry (Univ. Auckland);
Educational/Research Facilitation & Project Manager: Yvonne Rudman (Montana State Univ.)
2. Fire is an important natural disturbance in temperate forested ecosystems and serves as a critical but
poorly understood link between climate change and biosphere response. In recent decades, extreme
drought, land-cover alteration, and non-native plant invasions in temperate regions around the world have
altered natural fire regimes at an alarming rate, and in the process, threatened native biodiversity and
human well-being. Identifying the climate and human-related drivers of disturbance-regime change is one
of the most challenging issues facing natural resource management. WildFIRE PIRE will utilize the
similarities and contrasts in fire, climate, and land-use interactions in three fire-prone settings as a
platform for integrated fire-science research and education: Tasmania, New Zealand, and the western
U.S. It will employ state-of-the-art field, laboratory, and modeling tools to advance our understanding of
regional and hemispheric fire-climate linkages and land-use feedbacks. The team’s diverse expertise
allows novel interdisciplinary approaches and synergistic comparisons of fire history, ecology and
management approaches in different biogeographical settings. Discoveries from cutting-edge science will
help inform current fire management and decision making and educate the next-generation of fire
scientists and managers. By bringing together fire-science disciplines that do not usually collaborate and
utilizing the contrasts and similarities of the study regions, we will gain understanding not possible in a
single region with a single approach. Educational and research activities will be integrated through
undergraduate internships and graduate and postdoctoral fellowships. New team-taught courses, online
discussions, and themed video materials will be developed and made available to other academic
institutions, government agencies, and NGOs. Young filmmakers will produce video products that will
extend outreach through popular science and natural history web platforms. Two international scientific
workshops intended to help educate and train students and professionals about international issues in fire
science, global change, and land management will also be supported.
3. Intellectual Merit: The intellectual merit of WildFIRE PIRE lies in its contribution to understanding fire
as an Earth system process influenced by climate, land-use, and humans. Understanding the
consequences of altered fire regimes and the feedbacks to land cover, disturbance regimes, carbon
cycling, and climate change is recognized by the USGCRP and IPCC as a major challenge in global
change research. It is also a subject of long-standing interest in the disciplines of geography and
ecosystem science. The multi-faceted and multi-scalar approach of this investigation will (1) enable
integrated approaches in basic and applied fire science, including comparisons of historical data in fire
regime assessments and use of modern approaches to reconstruct past fire activity; (2) expand the matrix
of natural experiments offered by individual regions; and (3) provide much-needed information in support
of ecosystem science and management in all regions. The research contributes to initiatives that seek to
characterize the consequences of climate change and variability and land-cover conversion through (1)
an examination of key biospheric variables, (2) the use of paleo- and modern environmental data to link
responses among sites, regions, and hemispheres; and (3) an analysis of the feedbacks between fire
regimes, land-cover, humans, and climate change.
4. Broader Impacts: The broader impacts of WildFIRE PIRE lie in its objectives to address national and
international needs for information about fire, climate change, and sustaining ecosystem services; to
provide current science information in support of fire management and decision making needs; and to
train the next generation of fire scientists and managers. The project will (1) deepen understanding of
human-environment interactions, necessary to guide current and future land-use decisions; (2) support
international scientific partnerships and training opportunities; (3) create international education
experiences for 23 U.S. students and early-career scientists in ecosystem-based research and science
filmmaking; (4) contribute to global paleofire databases; and (5) promote diversity in STEM disciplines.
By forging this international partnership, we are laying the foundation for long-term scientific and career
development, information outreach, and new educational materials in the critical field of fire science.
5. Relevant Program Offices: Geography and Regional Science, Ecosystem Science
TABLE OF CONTENTS
For font size and page formatting specifications, see GPG section II.B.2.
Total No. of
Pages
Page No.*
(Optional)*
Cover Sheet for Proposal to the National Science Foundation
Project Summary
(not to exceed 1 page)
1
Table of Contents
1
Project Description (Including Results from Prior
20
NSF Support) (not to exceed 15 pages) (Exceed only if allowed by a
specific program announcement/solicitation or if approved in
advance by the appropriate NSF Assistant Director or designee)
11
References Cited
Biographical Sketches
(Not to exceed 2 pages each)
Budget
30
23
(Plus up to 3 pages of budget justification)
Current and Pending Support
9
Facilities, Equipment and Other Resources
2
Special Information/Supplementary Documentation
28
Appendix (List below. )
(Include only if allowed by a specific program announcement/
solicitation or if approved in advance by the appropriate NSF
Assistant Director or designee)
Appendix Items:
*Proposers may select any numbering mechanism for the proposal. The entire proposal however, must be paginated.
Complete both columns only if the proposal is numbered consecutively.
1. List of Participants
Lead PI: Cathy Whitlock, Director of Interdisciplinary Research Initiatives and Professor of Earth
Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman MT
co-PIs/other Senior Personnel:
Dennis Aig, Professor and Head of MFA in Science & Natural History Filmmaking Program, Montana
State University
Bruce Maxwell, Professor, Dept of Land Resources & Environmental Sciences, Montana State
University
David McWethy, Adj. Assistant Professor, Dept of Earth Sciences, Montana State University
Senior Personnel:
Philip Higuera, Assistant Professor, Dept of Forest Resources, University of Idaho, Moscow ID
Robert Keane, Research Ecologist, USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fire
Sciences Laboratory & Project Leader, Fire Modeling Institute, Missoula MT
Thomas Veblen, Professor of Distinction, College of Arts & Sciences, Dept of Geography, University
of Colorado, Boulder CO
International Collaborators:
David Bowman, Professor of Forest Ecology, School of Plant Science, University of Tasmania,
Hobart, Tasmania
Geoffrey Cary, Senior Lecturer, Fenner School of Environment & Society, The Australian National
University, Canberra, Australia
Simon Haberle, Senior Fellow, Resource Management in Asia-Pacific Program and Director, Centre
for Archaeological Research, Dept of Archaeology & Natural History, College of Asia & the Pacific, The
Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
Matt McGlone, Science Leader, Dept of Biodiversity & Conservation, Landcare Research, Lincoln
7640 New Zealand
George Perry, Senior Lecturer, School of Geography, Geology & Environmental Science, Univ.
Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand
Janet Wilmshurst, Palaeoecologist, Dept of Ecosystem Process, Landcare Research, Lincoln 7640,
New Zealand
Educational/Research Facilitation and Project Manager: Yvonne Rudman, Director for Academic &
Technical Programs, Office of International Programs (OIP), Montana State University
External Assessor: Richard Howard, Office of Institutional Research, University of Minnesota,
Minneapolis MN
2. WildFIRE PIRE Plan for Integrated Research and Education
Overview: Fire is the most important disturbance agent influencing global vegetation cover worldwide,
affecting between 3 and 4 million km2 annually and burning of forests and other vegetation is a major
driver transferring carbon from the terrestrial sphere to the atmosphere. Despite its importance, fire’s role
in climate change, ecosystem dynamics, and carbon and energy balances is still poorly understood [1-2:
numbers refer to References Cited]. In recent decades, fire activity has dramatically increased around
the world to an extent that the size and severity of fires now may be unprecedented on historical time
scales [3-4]. This increase in burning begs the question of whether climate change, human ignitions,
land-use change, or some combination of all is responsible. Some of the largest fires are occurring in
forests that are highly vulnerable to climate change, have little natural resilience to fire, and are
undergoing rapid land-use change [5-6]. Increased fire size and severity in temperate latitudes have
been attributed to warmer temperatures, leading to drier-than-average summers and a longer fire season.
In Tasmania, New Zealand (NZ), and western North America, current severe drought and plant mortality
are also exacerbating fire hazard and raising concerns about the trajectory of post-fire vegetation change
and future fire regimes [7-10]. Concurrently, land-use conversion is occurring at a rapid pace. Forest
clearance, fire suppression and related fuel changes, invasive fire-prone plant species, and intensive
livestock grazing have increased fire susceptibility and challenge efforts to mitigate fire risks and fire
effects [11-12]. A shift from subsistence and agricultural economies to those based on tourism and
recreation has increased population growth at the wildland-urban interface, sharpened the gradient
between protected wildlands and rural residential properties, and raised new concerns about the
1
consequences of altered disturbance regimes on ecosystem dynamics, biodiversity, and carbon storage
[13-16]. Land managers and ecosystem scientists are increasingly aware of the benefits of wildland fire
for fire-adapted ecosystems, but extreme fire conditions make prescribed fires impractical and lay the
groundwork for potentially irreversible ecological consequences.
The wildfire management community recognizes the importance of direct and indirect processes
operating across a range of time scales that affect fire potential and, in turn, societal vulnerability to fire.
In management terms, fire risk is the probability that a fire may ignite and spread. It is determined mainly
by the interaction of ignition sources (humans and lightning) with weather conditions that dry out fuels
and/or promote fire spread (wind, relative humidity). In contrast, fire hazard refers to a fuel complex,
defined by volume, type (e.g., woody vs. herbaceous), and arrangement that determines potential fire
behavior, regardless of the fuel type’s weather-influenced fuel moisture content [17-18]. Fire risk can
change dramatically over short periods of a year or season in relation to weather and human activities,
whereas climate-induced reconfigurations of fuel types occur over decades or longer time periods.
Prediction of future wildfire activity must consider both direct influences of future weather on fuel
conditions of existing vegetation types (fire risk), and the more complex changes due to climate and landuse impacts on fuel types and configurations (fire hazard) [2].
Maintenance of ecosystem resilience in the face of natural and human-induced changes in wildfire activity
has emerged as a major challenge and goal for land-management agencies around the world.
Restoration of fire-adapted ecosystems requires “making management decisions that increase resiliency
and improve landscape conditions so that fire can fulfill its appropriate ecological role and benefit other
natural processes” (U.S. National Fire Plan, http://www.forestsandrangelands.gov/plan/index.shtml).
Management actions that increase ecosystem resiliency to fire and other disturbances must be informed
by historical information about the sensitivity of ecosystem types to past disturbances. In this regard,
studies that span time scales of a century and longer have provided critical insights about fire responses
to shifts in climate state and variability [19-21], fuel biomass, natural- and human-set ignition frequency,
and interactions with other natural and human-induced disturbances within particular ecosystem types
[22-29]. Historical information is needed to guide management towards ecosystem types and structures
that buffer against the disturbance agent and that increase forest recovery after a disturbance event in
particular locations. There is an even greater demand for science information, including historical data, to
guide management decisions that seek to ensure landscape resiliency to future climate change, maintain
biodiversity, and protect delivery of vital ecosystem goods and services [30].
WildFIRE PIRE seeks to advance research and education on a scientifically important and socially
relevant theme, namely the extent to which human activities, vegetation change, and climate change
interact to alter fire regimes, ecosystem dynamics and ecosystem services (Fig. 1) [31]. As individual
OPPORTUNITIES/
CHALLENGES
addressingglobalchange
scienceneedsfor
LASTINGIMPACTS
DISCOVERY/
understandingfire’srole
Sustainedscientific
RESEARCH
innatural&altered
partnerships,database
Stateoftheart
landscapes
contributions,NGO
approachestotest
internships&study
scientifichypotheses
abroadprograms,
incriticalareasofAus,
WILDFire
updatedoutreach
NZ,andwestern
products
PIRE
US
EDUCATION/
MENTORING
IMPLEMENTATION/
Internships,grad&post
DISSEMINATION
doctrainingand
Scientific&public
mentoringcascades
outreach/publication,online
amongsenior&junior
courses,videoconferences,
scientists,grads&
podcasts,workshops
undergrads
2
Figure 1. Transformative nature of
WildFIRE PIRE arises from the linkages
between research, education, and outreach,
and from the development of sustainable
activities.
investigators, we consider aspects of this topic, but WildFIRE PIRE will allow us to build a
multidisciplinary international program in fire science, contribute to ongoing global fire initiatives, and
better understand the human- and natural-drivers of ecosystem change now demanded of Earth systems
science [31-32]. The project will bring together leading researchers, early-career scientists, and graduate
and undergraduate students to examine fire’s role in different biogeographic, ecologic and land-use
settings, a necessary step to advance understanding of fire, climate, and human interactions and to train
a diverse, globally engaged U.S. workforce in fire science and fire management. The partnership
involves three U.S. research universities, the USDA Forest Service, two Australian research universities,
one NZ university, and the leading NZ environmental research organization. It also includes nongovernmental and governmental organizations that rely on up-to-date science information to address realworld issues related to fire, climate change, and conservation. We will also work closely with rural and
non-research colleges and universities in the region that need timely curricular materials in environmental
sciences. Our individual expertise in fire history, fire ecology and biogeography, fire modeling, land-use
history, invasive plant ecology, and fire climatology will benefit from joint field studies, shared laboratory
experiences, cross-disciplinary data analysis, data-model comparisons, and collaborative publication and
information dissemination.
WildFIRE PIRE will also develop new curricular materials and film/video products on fire research and fire
science for national and international distribution. It will help foster much-needed dialog about fire’s role
in the ecosystem among scientists, land managers, policy makers and the public. Our research in other
parts of the world, and our ongoing partner participation in international fire science efforts (through our
involvement and leadership within the NOAA International Multiproxy Palaeofire Database (IMPD), U.K.
Global Palaeofire Working Group, and the International Geosphere Biosphere Cross-Project Initiative on
Fire will further international exchanges and broad outreach. Finally, interest from team members from
Tasmania and NZ to work at U.S. field sites and laboratories, using other institutional funds, will
strengthen the collaborations supported by the PIRE. We believe that the accomplishments of WildFIRE
PIRE in the next five years will set the stage for lasting multi-institutional collaborations in research and
education on the critical topic of fire in the Earth system.
Research Objectives
For fire science to advance, it is necessary to understand the drivers and consequences of fire on
multiple temporal and spatial scales. Suitable fuel, fire-conducive weather, and ignition are required for
fire at any time and location, but these variables are imbedded in the larger spatial context of climate,
vegetation, and humans, and their importance has varied through time (Fig. 2). A central theme in
WildFIRE PIRE is integration of studies that consider fire variability at centennial and millennial time
scales with studies focusing on annual and shorter time scales. Knowledge of the drivers and
consequences of fire-regime change over centuries and millennia will help us better assess fire
sensitivities to current and future changes in climate and land-use drivers, and conversely, information on
the processes and mechanisms that affect fuel conditions and fuel types on short time scales will inform
interpretations of long-term sedimentary and tree-ring records of fire. Despite the obvious need for
collaboration, fire scientists working at short time scales traditionally have had little contact with those
working on long scales, and managers have only rarely considered historical range of variation as a basis
for fire management planning. Relevant fire information comes from disciplines that use satellite
observations of the last 20 years, documentary records that extend back decades, tree-ring data that
span centuries to millennia, and sediment and geologic records that cover the last millennia and beyond.
Expertise in all these disciplines is beyond the capacity of any single group. Thus, interdisciplinary and
international science is requed to understand (1) the suite of natural and human drivers that have shaped
biomass burning in the past, (2) how current fire regimes are altered by climate and land-use change, and
(3) the nature of fire activity projected for the future in the face of climate change and accelerating human
pressures [2,33].
To advance fire science to the next level, WildFIRE PIRE will address basic and applied science
questions through an interdisciplinary, multi-scalar examination of specific hypotheses:
x
To what extent are prehistoric and modern fire regimes shaped by climate, landscape and fuel
arrangements, and human activities?
3
H1a: On millennial time scales, long-term fire activity is related to large-scale features of the climate
system (i.e., variations in insolation, onset of ENSO, atmospheric composition), and on
interannual to interdecadal time scales, large fire years are related to well-known oceanatmospheric variations and modes of variability that create fire-conducive weather patterns.
H1b. Similar fire activity occurs in biomes with similar plant morphological, life-history, and
phenological traits, irrespective of particular environmental and land-use histories.
H1c: The sensitivity of natural fire regimes to alteration by human activities (suppression, increased
ignitions, grazing, invasive introduced plants) is greatest for biomes with naturally high weathercontrolled fire risk and low climate-controlled fire hazard.
&OLPDWH
FOLPDWHYDULDELOLW\
PHDQVWDWH
)LUH
IUHTXHQF\VL]H
LQWHQVLW\
9HJHWDWLRQ
IXHOFKDUDFWHULVWLFV
Figure 2. WildFIRE PIRE science objectives are to
better understand linkages among fire, climate,
vegetation, and human activities through
integration of many disciplines that traditionally
work in isolation.
+XPDQV
LJQLWLRQVXSSUHVVLRQ
ODQGXVH
x
How has the well-documented warming of the late 20th century altered wildfire activity in
comparison with the variability of these fire regimes at centennial and millennial time scales?
H2a: Fire regimes formerly characterized by the lowest fire risk (e.g., cool, mesic forests) show the
greatest sensitivity to late 20th century climate variability in terms of fire frequency and fire
extent.
H2b: Fire regimes in ecosystem types that experienced the greatest land-use impacts during the 20th
century show the greatest increase in fire severity associated with late 20th century warming.
H2c: Wildfire responses to late 20th century warming are strongly conditioned by interactions with
previous anthropogenic and natural disturbances, which in turn are linked with historic climate
variability and extremes.
x
How does understanding the historical range of variability of wildfire activity inform decision
making with respect to mitigating and adapting to climate change impacts over the next
several decades?
H3a. In biomes where fires are naturally rare due to lack of ignition sources, introduced fire and
nonnative plant invasions result in major, irreversible changes in vegetation and landscape with
large impacts on ecosystem services and biodiversity.
H3b. In high-biomass ecosystems where fire risk was formerly low due to lack of conducive fire
weather, fuel manipulations are the least likely to significantly alter future fire behavior.
H3c. In ecosystem types historically characterized by high fire risk and low natural fire severity, fuel
manipulations have the highest probability of achieving both restoration and hazard reduction
goals.
Why this international partnership makes sense
We believe that important insights into difficult and pervasive questions about the commonality of fire
drivers, interactions, and feedbacks will emerge by drawing on independent thinking and approaches to
fire science in different parts of the world. The natural laboratories of Tasmania, NZ, and the western
U.S. provide a range of fire regimes influenced by different levels of human activity and climate change.
This allows us to test hypotheses by comparing responses under a matrix of predictor variables. For
example, the lack of fire adaptations in the NZ flora apparently made them especially vulnerable to
Polynesian fires, whereas subsequent burning by Europeans had relatively little impact. Fires in
4
Tasmania and western U.S. have a long evolutionary history tied to climate variations and human activity,
but ecosystems have been severely affected by 19th and 20th century fires. In Tasmania, it is widely
believed that the loss of about one third of the populations of the endemic conifer Athrotaxis selaginoides
was due to frequent fires associated with European land use that were unlike anything experienced
previously [34-35]. In Tasmania and western North America, late 20th century fire regimes seem to
exceed the historical range of variability and are strongly influenced by other disturbance and non-native
plant species. Understanding the direct and indirect influences on fire regimes in these regions will help
address contentious debates about the desirability of restoring prehistoric burning practices, the extent to
which current fires are unprecedented, consequences of projected climate change, and the use of fuel
reductions as a management tool [36-37].
The similarities and differences among these regions are essential to our experimental design: (1) In all
regions, land-use intensities range from protected public parklands to heavily-managed private lands and
ex-urban development. (2) Lake-sediment and tree-ring-based fire-history research is at an incipient
stage in Tasmania and NZ, and better developed in the U.S. In addition, our current research on South
American forests with closely related species (e.g., Nothofagus) will help guide efforts in Australia and NZ
[38-39]. (3) Subcontinental scale fire-history networks developed for the western U.S. relate wildfire
activity to climate variability [19,21]; proposed research will help build much-needed networks for
Australia and NZ for similar examination of fire climatology. This will allow us to assess modes of climate
variability that influence fire activity (e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO], Indian Ocean Dipole
[IOD], Southern Annular Mode [SAM; also called Antarctic Oscillation], and Pacific Decadal Oscillation
[PDO]) and identify important climate teleconnection patterns. (4) All regions are experiencing rapid landcover transformation at the wildland-urban interface, including rapid non-native plant invasions. Ironically,
fire-resistant rainforests in NZ and Tasmania are being converted to fire-prone plantations of introduced
western U.S. conifers. The degree to which such changes in fuel composition and structure impart critical
feedbacks to fire regimes is not well understood [11,40]. (5) Fire and vegetation history may help explain
different responses to recent fires in the three regions. For example, the NZ flora did not evolve with fire
and lacks fire-adapted traits found in the flora of North America and Australia, which may explain the
greater impact of anthropogenic fire in NZ [41]. The conifers that dominate Rocky Mountain forests are
obligate seeders whereas dominants of Tasmanian forests include both resprouting and obligate seeding
species [42]. Recognizing similarities in fire response as a result of similar plant morphological, life
history and phenological traits is much needed information for identifying ecosystem feedbacks that either
decrease or increase future fire potential [43].
Why WildFIRE PIRE will make a difference
The Intellectual Merit of WildFIRE PIRE lies in its goal of taking a multidisciplinary approach to transform
fire science from a descriptive mode focused on fairly small scales to a deductive hypothesis-testing
endeavor that examines linkages at multiple scales. This is the next logical step to meet the challenges
posed by global change research agendas. Through science and education partnerships we can start to
address questions concerning ecosystem vulnerability and resiliency regionally and globally. We will
bring together tools, approaches, and expertise that have been used in traditionally disparate disciplines
of fire science (e.g., landscape simulation modeling, charcoal analysis, tree-ring fire reconstructions,
human fire uses) to better understand cross-scale patterns, responses and controls of fire. Such an effort
is needed from a management perspective to evaluate fire conditions in the future. It is also needed by
the global change science community interested in fire’s role as an Earth system process [1-2], and it is
essential if we are going to train the next-generation of fire scientists and fire managers.
Specifically, the partnership will provide
x
Better understanding of the direct and indirect role of humans, climate, and fire feedbacks on
ecosystem processes that operate at different scales (testing H1);
x
Information on the historical range of variability of fire conditions necessary to assess current fire
activity, risk and hazard in different settings, relative to that of the late 20th century (testing H2);
x
Opportunities to make broader comparisons with ongoing studies in South America, Africa, Alaska,
Pacific Islands, mainland Australia, and other areas of the western U.S., thus greatly expanding the
5
scientific importance of the research;
x
Development of new approaches that link historical with modern fire science and empirical with
modeled reconstructions, thereby advancing fire science to the next level through hypothesis testing;
x
Training for current and future international fire scientists and managers, providing educational
outreach and making available science information that serves fire management needs (testing H3);
x
Contributions and continued leadership in NOAA’s International Multiproxy Paleofire Database and
other global fire initiatives that build capacity in fire science globally.
Research strategy
We will focus a field and laboratory campaign on reconstructing long- and short-term fire dynamics in
watersheds where tree-ring data; charcoal, pollen, and lithologic records from lake-sediment cores;
historical land-use and archeologic records; and modeling results can be compared. Watershed
reconstructions will be compared and scaled up to discern regional patterns, and these will serve as the
basis for interregional and interhemispheric comparisons. Our time span for most study areas will be the
last 5000 years, when paleoecological records indicate establishment of modern plant communities and
climate conditions. In each region, we will target sites that represent different levels of fire potential, as a
result of their climatic, fuel, and land-use setting. Within-region and between-region modeling, datamodel comparisons, and multi-scalar studies will draw on the expertise of the entire group; however, we
assign primary scientific responsibilities as follows: New Zealand (Whitlock, McWethy, McGlone,
Wilmshurst, Veblen, Perry); Tasmania (Veblen, Whitlock, Bowman, Haberle, Cary); western U.S.
(Whitlock, Veblen, Higuera, Keane, and Maxwell); multi-scalar comparisons and modeling (Higuera,
Keane, Cary); land-use–fire interactions (Maxwell, Veblen, Whitlock, Bowman, McGlone).
Research goals in Tasmania
Recent large, deadly bushfires during the “Big Dry” in southeastern Australia figure prominently in the
Australian Government’s conclusion that climate change is occurring faster and has more serious
consequences than previously believed [44]. The same report notes that the link between climate change
and bushfires is multi-faceted and complex because bushfires are influenced by many factors including
the amount and condition of the fuel load, land-cover patterns, non-native plant invasions, extreme
weather events, ignition sources, and management practices. Tasmania is an ideal area for examining
human and climate influences on wildfire activity because (a) the landscape is made up of a mosaic of fire
sensitive vs. highly fire tolerant plant communities, and it displays strong east-west contrasts in the history
of European settlement and current land-use patterns, (b) long-lived (1000 years) trees with proven
dendrochronological potential can yield annual-resolution tree-ring fire histories, (c) numerous small lakes
offer the potential for high resolution charcoal records, and work can be tied to previous and ongoing
paleoecological investigations [45-47], (d) previous research provides a broad understanding of
vegetation responses to recent and past fire and climate variations and land-use history [42,48-49], (e)
Tasmania is but one area of interest for our Australian colleagues and their work in other Australian
settings invite comparison and extend our reach.
In 1968, W.D. Jackson proposed a comprehensive model of how Tasmanian vegetation types, fire
frequency and soil fertility interacted in a complex system of feedback loops, resulting in self-reinforcing
vegetation patterns. This theory profoundly influenced the subsequent course of fire ecological research
far beyond Tasmania. In WildFIRE PIRE, we will examine aspects of Jackson’s theory that are
fundamental to predicting how vegetation will respond to future climate-induced changes in fire activity.
Fire is considered a primary driver of vegetation dynamics in Tasmania. Tree-ring and lake-sediment firehistory research has not previously been conducted in Tasmania. The longevity of Tasmanian forest
trees, their suitable dendrochronological attributes [50-51], and the presence of small lakes for
paleoecological study provide extraordinary research opportunities. Climate-vegetation linkages [52] can
be studied on multiple temporal and spatial scales and across scales. For example, fire-climate studies in
Tasmania have related 20th century fire activity to ENSO variation [53]; however, declining precipitation
over the last 50 years is also attributed to the positive trend in SAM [54]. ENSO and SAM are known to
have interactive phase-dependent influences on the climate of high southerly latitudes [55-56], as does
the IOD [57]. Long tree-ring-based fire records will allow multi-decadal scale analyses of variability in
6
wildfire activity in relation to variability in these major climate oscillations. Tasmania research will also
inform the interpretation of past variations in atmospheric circulation patterns (e.g., strengthening and
shifting of the westerlies) and allow comparisons with fire-history studies underway in southern South
America [58-60].
WildFIRE PIRE research in Tasmania will be coordinated with a pending proposal to the Australian
Research Council (P.I. Bowman with co-investigators Whitlock, Veblen, Haberle), which seeks to develop
a network of sedimentary charcoal and tree-ring fire records over the past 10,000 years. It will also link
with research underway by Haberle investigating human-fire-climate linkages in temperate and tropical
Australia. Our specific contribution will be to:
x
Reconstruct landscape-scale fire activity at an annual resolution over the last 1000 years from treering records of fire, tree death, and stand establishment dates. This effort will target fire-killed stands
of Athrotaxis trees throughout the species’ geographic range as well as drier forest types.
x
Obtain fire, vegetation, and climate data for the last 5000 years, based on charcoal and pollen
records from 5-6 small lakes within watersheds where tree-ring fire histories are underway, and in
watersheds where archeological data suggest greater prehistoric human activity. This approach will
extend the fire, vegetation, and climate information back in time and across the east-west
environmental gradient.
x
Explore the influences of major climate and modes of climate variability (indexed as sea-surface
temperature variations) on current and past fire activity (e.g., [19,58,61]) to better understand fireclimate linkages, independent of human activities.
Research goals in New Zealand (NZ)
In NZ, human-set fires have been responsible for irreversible changes in vegetation during the last
millennium in the relative absence of strong climate variations. Fires were extremely rare in NZ prior to
Mori arrival 700 years ago [62], occurring once every 1-2 millennia in most areas [41]. In the absence of
fire, the native flora was poorly adapted to fire’s introduction. Charcoal and pollen data from lakes in
remote settings indicate near-absence of fire prior to Mori arrival followed by a few decades of highseverity fires. This "Initial Burning Period" (IBP, between 700 and 500 years ago depending on location
[63]) was a short but significant deforestation event in the history of each watershed, accompanied by a
dramatic transformation in vegetation, slope stability, and limnology. At some sites, the watersheds and
the native forests they supported still have not recovered. NZ falls at the far end of the spectrum of
landscapes that have been altered by humans and is the rare place where we can precisely isolate
human influences on fire risk and fire hazard. Tree-ring derived climate data spanning the last 2000
years in NZ [64] suggest only minor climate fluctuations during the IBP that may have amplified or
reinforced the success of anthropogenic burning. The relationship between changes in long-term climate,
vegetation, and forest structure suggests that beech (Nothofagus) forests were generally expanding
during late-Holocene cooling, prior to Mori arrival [65-67]. Archeological data for the last millennia
indicate that Mori presence on the South Island of NZ was generally transient except for semipermanent settlements in coastal areas [68-69], and we will determine if settlement sites and trade routes
explain particular burning patterns.
In the last century, invasive non-native plant species, such as gorse (Ulex europaeus) and non-native
conifer escapement from forestry plantations have influenced current fire regimes beyond the historical
range of fire variability, but little is known about the feedbacks between land-use, non-native species, and
fire regimes. Stand-age dynamics of native forest patches are also needed to determine whether they
are remnants from European-set fires in the last few centuries, and whether they are expanding or
contracting at present. The history of these forest remnants, which support much of the native
biodiversity, and their relation to fire is a critical need.
Research funded by NSF to Whitlock and McWethy and the New Zealand Marsden Foundation to
McGlone, Wilmshurst, and Whitlock has already identified the magnitude of landscape change in
southwestern South Island, first with the arrival of Mori and then with European colonists [70]. Marsden
Foundation funding to Perry and Veblen currently focuses on recent stand dynamics and species
coexistence in beech (Nothofagus) and podocarp (Podocarpus) forest. McGlone, Wilmshurst and Perry
7
(also Marsden funded) are developing a fire-regime classification for different vegetation types and using
spatially-explicit simulation models to better understand fire-fuel linkages. In WildFIRE PIRE, lakesediment pollen, charcoal, and geochemical records spanning the last 5000 years, dendroclimatological
data of the last 2000 years, archeological data for the last 700 years, forest dynamics data spanning the
last 500 years, and fire models will be used to examine:
x
Changes in fire regimes in the last 1000 years at 5-6 sites that lie along a gradient in fuel types and
environmental conditions from moderately dry lowland podocarp forests to wet mid- and highelevation closed-canopy beech forests. Some records will lie in proximity to Mori settlements, trade
routes, and valuable resource localities (greenstone, bracken fern, wildlife). We will model scenarios
that link fire behavior to fuels and climate conditions, and compare the results with historical data to
determine what burning strategies were necessary to create and maintain open landscapes.
x
Recent 20th century burns in a range of beech and podocarp forests to construct a general model of
post-fire vegetation dynamics needed to better interpret forest responses to past fires as well as the
vulnerability of those patches to present and future disturbances.
x
Interdisciplinary multi-scalar relations in three large watersheds that (1) historically supported high
levels of biomass yet varied in fuel types and climate as a result of longitudinal and elevational
gradients, (2) have experienced recent fires of unusual severity, and (3) are experiencing non-native
plant invasion (Ulex, Pinus) and land-cover change.
Research comparisons in the western U.S.
The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) and Colorado Rockies (CR) enhance the international
component of WildFIRE PIRE, because they extend the gradients of climate and land-use, span a range
of fire regimes, and utilize extensive ongoing research on climate-fire-human linkages. Land-use
gradients range from wildland reserves at high elevations to ex-urban development, logging, and grazing
at middle elevations, to irrigated agriculture and growing communities at lower treeline. Hunter-gatherers
occupied the Rocky Mountain region for at least 12,000 years [71], but unlike NZ and Tasmania, the
extent and impacts of deliberate burning are geographically unclear [72]. High-elevation mesic conifer
forests seem to be little altered by prehistoric or recent human activities, because they naturally
experience long fire return intervals and high fuel build-up. Fires at the lower forest/grassland transition
are naturally more frequent and currently represent areas of high fire risk. In the last 20 years, both
regions have experienced large severe fires, as a result of early snowmelt, wet springs, and dry summers
[7]. Catastrophic fires are projected to increase in both areas with future climate and land-use change.
Forests are currently under attack by native bark beetles and budworm and non-native blister rust, and
large tracks of dead and dying conifers are altering fuel conditions and raising major management
concerns [73-74]. Likewise, invasive grasses and forbs have increased in density and spatial extent at all
elevations. The life history of many non-native grasses (e.g., Bromus tectorum and Taeniatherum caputmedusae) has changed the timing of the fire season and the success of ignitions, and increased fire
frequency has created feedbacks that perpetuate annual invasive plants and decrease native perennial
plant reproduction and survival. Adaptive management strategies to slow nonnative species invasion
rates [75-76] and decrease fire risk demand information on the historical range of variability [77].
The GYE and CR also complement each other and are supported by different levels of knowledge:
Subalpine forests in the GYE have well-developed long-term fire history information from lake-sediment
studies [78], but almost nothing is known about the long-term fire history of lower treeline. Tree-ring
studies would provide information on forest dynamics and fire feedbacks during the last few centuries at
lower treeline. Greater attention in the CR has focused on interactions of fire and non-fire disturbances
(bark beetles, budworm, blowdown) in the context of climate variation, whereas interactions in the GYE
are only currently under examination (Keane and colleagues). Land-use histories are better understood
in the CR. Ex-urban development in fire-prone habitats goes back to the 1960s and thus population
density is higher. The GYE has well-developed land-use information since 1950 AD [79], and ex-urban
development is more recent and occurring at a faster rate than in the CR [14]. Current NSF-funded
research in the CR led by Veblen and collaborators examines the causes and consequences of bark
beetle outbreaks, and in particular the two-way interactions of fire and bark beetle outbreaks in lodgepole
pine (Pinus contorta) forests in the context of climate variation. Higuera and Whitlock are working on
8
long-term fire dynamics with funding from NSF and a National Parks Ecological Research Fellowship in
Colorado and the GYE. Maxwell and colleagues have DOE and USDA NRI grants to model linkages
between non-native plant species, habitat and life history attributes and climate change and have used
Markov transition models to estimate probabilities of extinction and colonization of populations of invasive
species. Keane and colleagues at the USDA Fire Sciences Lab are using mechanistic landscape models
to understand (1) the interactions between fire and mountain pine beetle epidemics in the GYE, (2)
thresholds of response in landscape dynamics under warming climates in both regions, (3) changes in
wildlife habitat under climate and fire management scenarios in Montana, (4) interactions of climate
change, fire management, and the expansion of the wildland-urban interface (current NSF funded
research), and (5) climate change, fire, and stream temperature changes in Montana.
WildFIRE PIRE efforts in the GYE will build on current investigations on (1) land-use changes since the
1950s [80-81], (2) paleoclimate reconstructions from 1300 AD – present [82], (3) vegetation and fire
history studies [21,78, 82-87], (4) future climate and vegetation changes in the region [86,88]; (5) invasion
controls and population dynamics of non-native plant species at present and in the future [75,89-92].
Proposed research in Colorado draws upon ongoing research focused on (1) land-use changes since the
1950s [93-94], (2) tree-ring reconstructions of fire history and fire-climate teleconnections with ENSO and
the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) from 1550 AD – present [61,95-98], (3) reconstructions of past
and current fire frequency and severity across the elevation gradients [99-100], (4) fire and vegetation
histories spanning the past 6000 years in subalpine forests [101], (5) fire behavior responses to 19th and
20th century outbreaks of bark beetles[26-27,102], and (6) empirical and modeling studies of ecological
restoration and fire mitigation in areas of exurban development [103-104].
In the western U.S. regions, we will examine:
x
Historical range of variability in fire regimes over the last 5000 years, filling in key information
gaps. We will develop charcoal and pollen-based fire and vegetation reconstructions in 3-4 new
watersheds in the subalpine zone of northern Colorado to complement ongoing investigations
based on tree-ring research. In the GYE, new tree-ring studies at the lower forest-steppe
ecotone will build on existing pollen and charcoal studies in the region.
x
Site-specific human histories to better assess the consequences and timing of different land-use
practices with respect to past fire regimes and climate conditions, building on current studies that
extend back to 1950 AD with archaeological, documentary and remotely sensed data to evaluate
current conditions and recent fire events.
x
Fire feedbacks on plant-invasion processes and thresholds by explicitly linking with plant invasion
and fire behavior models. For example, variables, including fire, that influence cheatgrass
(Bromus tectorum) invasion in the western U.S. will be examined jointly by Maxwell and Keane.
x
Interactions between fire, climate change, and insect outbreaks over the last 5000 years,
maximizing overlap between proposed and existing tree-ring and lake-sediment records in the
GYE and CR, and integrating multiple disturbances into long-term disturbances histories.
Research Approaches and Methodologies (in all regions)
We plan to:
(1) Identify regional fire-climate relationships during recent years of high and low area burned to better
understand the synoptic-scale climate patterns consistently associated with fire. We will use NOAA
NCEP Reanalysis data sets, regional climate model results, and weather-station data to examine climate
mechanisms during years of synchronous, asynchronous, and low fire activity.
(2) Determine vegetation responses to modern fires (post-1940) by examining post-fire tree establishment
and vegetation transitions (e.g., forest to shrubland or grassland, etc.) during known post-fire climate
conditions. We will use pre- and post-fire vegetation and tree-age data from burns that have been
precisely dated and mapped from tree-ring fire scars, documentary records, historical air photos, and
satellite images. Pre-fire vegetation will be compared with current vegetation (i.e., c. 20-60 yrs after
burning) to determine post-fire vegetation transitions [105]. Post-fire tree establishment will be compared
9
with annual and decadal-scale climate variability derived from weather stations and dendroclimatological
reconstructions [106].
(3) Reconstruct annually resolved and well-replicated fire histories based on tree-ring fire scars and age
cohorts in each region extending back 500 years or more [19]. Subregional and regional fire synchrony
and interannual/decadal variability of fire activity will be compared to local climate and synoptic scale
climate variability (e.g., tree-ring reconstructions of sea surface temperature anomalies) over the past
several centuries [19, 95]. Analytical methods will include superposed epoch analysis (a standard
method applied at inter-annual time scales) and bivariate event analyses (to analyze multi-decadal and
centennial scale relationships of wildfire activity and climate extremes) [61].
(4) Reconstruct decadally-resolved fire and vegetation histories based on charcoal and pollen records
extending back 5000 years. We will obtain sediment cores from 5-6 lakes in Tasmania, 5-6 lakes in NZ,
and 3-4 lakes in the CR, located along gradients of vegetation, climate and of past human occupation and
land use [e.g., 68-69]. Chronologies will be developed from a series of AMS radiocarbon dates (one per
500 years down to 5000 years ago) and lead-210 dates (15 samples spanning the last 150 years). Highresolution paleoecological analyses will provide histories with decadal resolution [107]. Fire-history
interpretations will be based on statistical treatments of charcoal data to identify local fire events using
CharAnalysis software [108] and comparisons with process-based models of charcoal dispersal and
deposition [109]. Fire history reconstructions will be characterized by fire return intervals and area burned
measurements summarized at multiple time scales (e.g., [36]).
(5) Examine evidence of watershed change over the last 5000 years from geochemical (scanning XRF
facility, Univ. Minnesota-Duluth), lithologic, magnetic susceptibility, and bulk-density data (LacCore Lab,
Univ. Minnesota-Minneapolis), as well as other lake-level proxies to supplement the ecological histories
developed in (2) and (3).
(6) Develop watershed-specific land-use histories through synthetic and original research (e.g., fire
reports, historical photographs, land-survey descriptions, documentary evidence, and archeological and
ethnographic data sets) to identify the timing and magnitude of local land-cover change. This information
will be added to items (2)-(4) to develop synthetic environmental histories for each watershed, and it will
also provide input for multi-state transition models that assess feedbacks between fire and plant
colonization and extinction under different patterns of land-use change.
(7) Integrate individual watershed histories to evaluate broader geographic patterns of ecological change
occurring on different time scales. Regional patterns will be related to modes of climate variability (item 1)
to evaluate environmental sensitivity to past climate changes and infer potential responses to projected
climate change.
(8) Employ dynamic global vegetation models, landscape fire and vegetation simulation models, and
invasive species models (e.g., Fire-BGCv2, Firescape, and other GCTE models) [110-113] to explore the
interactions of vegetation, climate and disturbance at different spatial scales. Scenarios developed from
integrated landscape histories will be used to test hypotheses about the effects of different interactions
between climate, land-use, fire behavior, fuels, and vegetation recovery. The influence of fire on the
probability of plant invasion will be explicitly included in Markov transition, mechanisitic ecophysiological
simulations, and fire behavior models.
(9) Compare findings within and among WildFIRE PIRE regions and with global fire history and land-use
patterns through our involvement in research in South America, Africa, Alaska, Pacific Islands, mainland
Australia, and other areas of the western U.S. to develop broad insights on fire, climate, and land-use.
Integrated Education Elements in WildFIRE PIRE
WildFIRE PIRE will build human capacity in areas of geography and ecosystem science and provide
training and mentoring, education, and outreach in fire science and management. Our goal is to mentor
researchers for the challenges in international collaborative science for their career stage, ensure regular
communication among widely spaced members of the partnership, and design products that can be
effectively used for teaching and outreach in both hemispheres.
Mentoring strategies: A mentoring ladder will serve as our academic support system to integrate
10
research and education with mentoring and allow different levels of communication, guidance, and
advancement through a combination of peer, near-peer, and senior mentoring activities. In the course of
the project, we propose to train and mentor early-career scientists (e.g., two assistant professors and two
post-doctoral research associates), four graduate students (three doctoral, and one MFA film student),
and 14 U.S. undergraduate interns recruited in our states from underserved colleges, and nationally with
a focus on underrepresented groups. At each level, partners will oversee the activities of more junior
participants and share information with the entire team.
Educational outreach: Our approach combines one-on-one research experiences in different lab and field
settings, development of courses that include interactive video and webinar culmination components, and
video and podcasts for broad dissemination and workshops. We also lay the foundation for activities that
extend the research and education partnership beyond WildFIRE PIRE, drawing on our experience in
similar international efforts at Montana State University (MSU) (e.g., education-abroad programs and
sustainable faculty-led summer programs for international and U.S. students are part of our long-term
planning). Specific educational training includes (see Management Plan for recruiting plan):
Early-career researchers (McWethy, Higuera, and post-docs). Early-career researchers will spend
significant time in foreign field areas and laboratories and contribute to the interdisciplinary and
international components. They will interact with senior PIs, advise students, and be continually
mentored as they advance along their career path, gaining valuable experience in grantsmanship, new
ways to improve teaching and advising skills, guidance on effective communication with researchers and
students from diverse cultural backgrounds and disciplinary areas, and insights about the standards and
conduct associated with international collaboration (see Supplementary Documentation).
x
McWethy will lead the team focused on detailed landscape changes during the Initial Burning Period
in NZ and will spend a total of 8.2 months based at Landcare Research and Univ. Auckland, working
with Wilmshurst, McGlone and Perry. McWethy will lead NZ field work, laboratory and data analysis
and interpretation and head collaborative efforts to understand fire patterns along gradients of human
occupation and climate, using a combination of data and modeling approaches.
x
Higuera will lead research that seeks to model past fire regime shifts and possible drivers of changes
in fuel, climate, and ignition frequency. Modeling the fire regime shift during the IBP in NZ will be the
first project, and later he will consider more complex drivers in Tasmania, the GYE and CR, working
closely with Keane, Cary, and Perry. He will spend one month in New Zealand, one month in
Tasmania, and 2.2 months in the field in the GYE and CR.
x
A yet-to-be-recruited post-doc based at MSU will develop land-use histories prior to 1950 AD for the
CR and GYE. Original and synthetic research will focus on targeted watersheds. The post-doc will
work closely with Maxwell, Whitlock and Veblen as well as Perry and Bowman. This task will require
3.2 months at U.S. locations, and two months in New Zealand and Tasmania.
x
A yet-to-be-recruited post-doc at University of Colorado (CU) will work in NZ on post-fire vegetation
dynamics and stand dynamics of remnant patches, working with Veblen, Perry, Bowman, Whitlock,
and McGlone. The post-doc will help develop a fire-driven model of vegetation dynamics for NZ
forest types, and compare results with the fire history research of McWethy, Whitlock, McGlone, and
Wilmshurst, spending a total of nine months in NZ, and one month in the CR and GYE on comparison
studies.
Graduate students (PhD students and MFA student). PhD students will tackle dissertation topics that
include foreign and U.S. research and will spend several weeks at partner laboratories in Australia and
NZ. Two PhD students in the MSU Ecology and Environmental Science Ph.D. Program will focus on
long-term fire-vegetation dynamics in Tasmania (7.5 months overseas), and disturbance synergisms in all
regions (two months overseas). A PhD student in the CU Geography Department will examine lowerforest treeline dynamics in the GYE and participate in comparisons with CR and NZ (four months
overseas). A PhD student in the University of Idaho (UIdaho) Department of Forest Resources will
undertake a meta-analysis of the data used to reconstruct climate, vegetation, and disturbance history;
explore modeling strategies that link fire across different spatial and temporal scales; and undertake datamodel comparisons to evaluate potential drivers of reconstructed fire histories across study sites (two
11
months overseas). Doctoral students will participate in videoconferences at monthly lab meetings,
present results at international and national conferences, learn valuable teaching and research team
skills, and gain experience advising undergraduate students.
An MFA student in the MSU Science & Natural History Filmmaking program will work with Aig, who heads
the program and is a renowned documentary filmmaker, to plan, direct, and produce mini-documentary
podcasts that describe and report on fire research and science. The use of web podcasts and new media
is integrated into the film program curriculum. The MFA student will mentor an undergrad intern assistant
and spend 75 days total overseas and 28 days at U.S. field and lab sites. This filmmaking component is
an important educational opportunity for the MFA student to gain field-based experience. It is also an
important part of WildFIRE PIRE outreach.
Undergraduate internships. Fourteen internships directed by foreign and U.S. scientists will be available
for nationally recruited students to spend six weeks on inquiry-based laboratory and field projects in
Tasmania and NZ. This overseas field component will be followed by an additional six weeks in an
internship program in a foreign government laboratory or non-profit government (NGO) organizations
(e.g., Greening Australia, the Tasmania Land Conservancy, World Heritage, the Department of Primary
Industries and Water, and Landcare Research NZ) (see Supplementary Documentation). This appliedscience portion of the internship will give students first-hand experience in real-world applications of fire
science to fire management, conservation and biodiversity issues, policy making, and public outreach.
The overseas internships will be followed by an optional six-week internship in the CR or GYE, available
to four undergrads. The undergraduate internship program will be run like the NSF Research Experience
for Undergraduate Program, with students taking on an applied and/or basic science question relevant to
the project, developing a thesis-type report, presenting results to the WildFIRE PIRE team, and being
included in publication and workshop activities. Students will be receive stipends, have expenses
covered, and earn MSU credits through the Extended University. We have limited the number of
internships to fourteen in WildFIRE PIRE; however, we view this as a proof-of-concept for a long-term
self-supporting program, administered by the MSU Office of International Programs.
Our goal is to ensure that undergraduates have an opportunity to participate in true intellectual
collaboration with foreign and U.S. partners, gain benefits from the expertise, specialized skills, facilities,
phenomena, and/or resources that different collaborators and research environments provide, and have
the opportunity to engage in real-world environmental issues through the NGO internship experience. We
recognize that this type of experience requires prior cultural preparation, faculty-student interactions and
student-student communication before, during, and after the internship, and trained mentors at all levels
of the mentoring ladder.
Curriculum development. Using available cyberinfrastructure at all institutions, we will develop and offer
an online course Fire & Climate Change in Year 1 through MSU Extended University. The course will be
developed, delivered and managed with the Desire2Learn course management system and we will use
the best design practices required by our institution. Fire & Climate Change will be delivered
asynchronously in years 2-5 through MSU Extended University. In addition to serving diverse 2-year and
4-year universities in our states, the online course will provide credit for secondary school teachers
enrolled in the MSU Masters of Science in Science Education program and complement online courses in
fire ecology and management offered at UIdaho.
A second curricular component is an upper-division undergrad and graduate seminar Global Issues in
Fire Science (3 credits, 2 hours/week interactive videoconference), taught by U.S. partners at MSU, CU,
and UIdaho in Years 2-5. The course will involve discussion of current advances in fire science, student
presentations, and podcasts. International partner institutions will participate as much as possible, given
academic scheduling differences. The seminar will be supported by the Desire2Learn system, and we
will develop asynchronous podcasts (posted on www.wildfirepire.org) for foreign partners to use in
teaching and other outreach.
Professional research training opportunities. Two workshops will bring together land managers,
government, industry, and academic researchers, and students to exchange ideas, receive training, and
plan dissemination of results. An Australian-based workshop supported by non-PIRE funding will focus
on natural fire regimes and human-environment linkages in both hemispheres in Year 3; a workshop in
12
Montana in Year 5 will focus on fire history and fire management in a changing world. The Australian
workshop will seek additional funding from the Australian Research Council, and the IGBP Past Global
Changes Program. The U.S. workshop will request additional funding from the Joint Fire Sciences
program and other agency partners in the Greater Yellowstone area.
Video & cyber-outreach. The WildFIRE PIRE website will portray the science and scientists through
multimedia content, online field reports, and related information products. In this way, we can show both
information-gathering and decision-making processes in a real-time context. We will include scheduled
text, multimedia, and information product web updates; interactive online collaboration via Adobe
Connect, IM, iChat, and other online communication tools while the research is in progress; and longer
mini-documentary podcasts after work is completed to convey and explain conclusions.
High-quality media products are ensured by the participation of Aig, Director of the MSU Science and
Natural History Filmmaking program. This program trains science graduate students to create accurate
and compelling media that communicate STEM disciplines to the public. Podcasts of WildFIRE PIRE
research and discoveries will be available through our webpage as well as the award-winning science
and natural history website TERRA: The Nature of Our World. MSU’s TERRA has had over eight million
downloads over its three-year history and has become an important educational source globally. It has
been listed several times by Apple as among the top 20 science sites on the web.
Other outreach. Foreign partners will gain from field and laboratory experiences in the U.S., supported by
MSU institutional and New Zealand and Australia funding sources. Fire-related data and results will be
made available to the fire community through NOAA International Multiproxy Palaeofire Database, Global
Palaeofire Working Group, and the IGBP Fire Initiative. All the investigators on this project contribute to
these databases routinely. To broaden participation in meta-analysis and comparative activities, we will
organize special paper sessions at the relevant scientific meetings (Assoc. of Amer. Geographers, North
Amer. Forest Ecology Workshop, Amer. Geophysical Union, Ecological Soc. Amer., International Fire
Ecology & Management Congress).
3. WildFIRE PIRE Institutional Engagement and Impact
WildFIRE PIRE will advance fire science in the U.S. and internationally to the next level of inquiry, namely
exploring the role of fire as a key Earth system process, strongly linked to human and natural drivers that
operate on multiple temporal and spatial scales. We will build on current collaborations among partners
and linkages to the global fire science community. Our educational objective is to allow early-career
scientists to participate and lead international research, to engage graduates in highly relevant
interdisciplinary science and train them for successful professional and management careers, to train
promising student filmmakers to develop products of broad outreach, and to inspire undergraduates in the
field of environmental science. The senior researchers have an excellent record of successfully involving
early-career scientists and graduate students in science and publication. Senior and early-career
scientists will work together to introduce undergraduates to the excitement of field-based research and
state-of-the-art laboratory, data analysis and modeling approaches. Further outreach is assured through
the online undergraduate course and graduate seminar, two professional workshops, and web and media
products that document scientific inquiry and research experiences in compelling ways.
The transformative aspects of WildFIRE PIRE are broad and lasting in scope:
Within the fire-science community: This project builds on collaborative fire research underway in the
three countries and brings together new approaches and comparisons that are not possible in a single
region. Several lasting synergisms are envisioned: The fire-history community will benefit from the
collaboration of modern-fire researchers, social scientists, and modelers of modern fire behavior and
plant-invasion processes. Modern fire scientists will gain from the spatial and temporal perspectives
provided by dendroecologists, paleoecologists and land-use historians. Empirically-focused researchers
will benefit from insights of modelers and data-model comparison. Project outcomes will support ongoing
and related research in the U.S. and other countries already underway by the WildFIRE PIRE team.
WildFIRE PIRE research addresses national priorities in the U.S., Australia and New Zealand concerning
climate change, fire, ecosystem management, and sustaining native biodiversity [114-115]. Because we
are working in and near key national parks, protected reserves, and World Heritage Conservation areas
13
that have experienced catastrophic fires in recent years, our results will have high visibility with the public
and land-management communities and our findings will contribute directly to discussions about fire in
managed and protected ecosystems. For example, Yellowstone National Park has over three million
visitors each year with an interest in the environment [116] and has long been at the center of discussions
about fire policy, conservation, and wildland management. The Colorado Front Range has been the
focus of public and scientific debate about proper fire management, mitigation, and restoration efforts at
the expanding wildland-urban interface [27, 29, 103-104,117]. Similar issues and debates are relevant at
our study areas in Tasmania and NZ. Our science will help inform these debates, both in the U.S. and
abroad, and help fire-policy formulation, especially efforts to restore historical fire regimes. Our interns
will spend time in partner NGOs and government labs as part of their overseas experience and gain
applied experiences. Thus, through WildFIRE PIRE collaborations at our institutions and our outreach to
other universities, NGOs, and government agencies, lasting connections that can be sustained in future
research and educational efforts will be formed.
Our efforts will also enhance and contribute to international fire programs, including International
Geosphere Biosphere Program Cross-Project Fire Initiative and Core Program Activities (PAGES, GCTE,
AIMES); UK-based Global Palaeofire Working Group; NOAA’s International Multi-proxy Paleofire
Database to study fire globally. Whitlock, Veblen, Haberle, Higuera, Wilmshurst, and McGlone are
leaders in these programs and served on their scientific advisory boards. WildFIRE PIRE will contribute
new data from critical regions, which is an important step in global capacity building underway in the
paleofire community.
Finally, the elements that motivate the international research collaboration are the same elements that
make WildFIRE PIRE a superb educational opportunity to bring together undergraduates, graduates,
early-career and senior scientists, professionals, and the public to better understand fire as a local,
regional, and global driver of change and the real-world applications of basic science in management and
policy. The project will build educational capacity in fire science and develop a number of critical
international exchange opportunities beyond the project. Our goal is to inspire, educate, and train the
next generation of U.S. fire scientists to succeed internationally and to foster lasting partnerships among
scientists, land managers, and the public.
Within Montana State University, University of Colorado, and University of Idaho: WildFIRE PIRE
supports current and proposed initiatives at MSU to expand interdisciplinary research, education, and
outreach in the environmental sciences. WildFIRE PIRE PIs are from three colleges (Letters and
Science, Agriculture, and Arts and Architecture) with different teaching and research expectations and
little previous collaboration. The research also supports land-use and climate-change activities underway
at MSU’s Center for Invasive Plant Management, Big Sky Institute, and Paleoecology Laboratory; CU’s
Biogeography Laboratory and INSTAAR; UIdaho’s Fire Ecology and Management undergraduate and
graduate program; and the USDA Forest Service Fire Science Laboratory. Involving senior and earlycareer faculty and graduate students in science, land-resource management, and filmmaking through
WildFIRE PIRE will lead to new collaborations, new educational exchanges, and improved mentoring for
students interested in interdisciplinary fire science.
Including undergraduates from across the country in WildFIRE PIRE research activities and providing
overseas field experiences and NGO/outreach experiences will help with undergraduate retention and
recruitment at our institutions. Web-delivered courses, as well as mini-documentaries and other video
products will build new course offerings in international studies, environmental sciences, and land-use
and climate change that will be utilized at all three universities. Through joint field and lab experiences,
team-taught courses, and engaging media products, we will reach students at multiple institutions,
including underserved rural and tribal colleges.
Overseas field/NGO-based internship experiences will be designed with the intention of sustaining
internships past the life of the grant. Foreign university and NGO partners will be encouraged to consider
long-term strategies for continuing the activities on an exchange or fee-for-service basis. Faculty at MSU,
CU and UIdaho will be cultivated to take faculty-led programs on a rotating basis and NGOs will be
encouraged to develop regular internship positions to be jointly managed by MSU and the NGO. The
faculty-led programs and internships will be offered to U.S. students on a continual basis for credit
14
through MSU’s Extended University.
Within Montana: WildFIRE PIRE supports Montana University System’s efforts to build partnerships with
communities, businesses, state government and other educational entities that will help align science
education and research with pressing social and economic challenges within the state. Ecosystem and
environmental sciences has been identified as one of five priority areas for statewide strategic planning,
and Montana is considered a national leader in using science and technology research to address
problems related to the environment, agriculture, energy, and other fields [118-119]. Because of the
interest in fire and climate change in the Northern Rockies, WildFIRE PIRE will assume a visible role in
providing guidance to the public, land- and fire-management communities, policy makers, and other
stakeholders.
WildFIRE PIRE activities support long-term efforts to build capacity in environmental sciences in MT, as
evidenced by the MUS EPSCoR RII Track 1 proposal on regional climate and land-use change in
Montana, an NSF Research Coordinated Network proposal with MSU, UIdaho and University of Montana
to look at environmental change in the Northern Rockies, and proposed NEON Northern Rockies domain
activities focused on land-use, climate, and environmental change.
4. International WildFIRE PIRE Coordination and Logistics
Recruitment and project logistical information will utilize the WildFIRE PIRE webpage
(www.wildfirepire.org) as a central source of information, including internship opportunities and other
openings and will be coordinated with the MSU Office of International Programs (OIP), under the direction
of Rudman.
Recruitment and Selection: We will seek U.S. graduate students and post-doctoral research associates
with appropriate field, laboratory, and analytical skills; potential for, or a record of, publication; and good
communication and teamwork skills. Recruitment will be through national disciplinary web servers (e.g.,
AMQUA listserve; NOAA paleoclimate discussion list, AAG Biogeography discussion), standard
institutional outlets, and through advertisements in disciplinary classified job lists. We will target
underrepresented groups in STEM disciplines, including women, minorities, and students from
underserved regions through direct outreach. Whitlock, Veblen, and Maxwell have strong records of
training diverse graduate students who have gone onto successful careers in science. Recruitment of
undergraduate interns will target two groups:
(1) Underserved higher-education institutions in our own states, including promising undergraduates from
tribal and Hispanic colleges, two-year and four-year universities in rural areas. Academic preparation,
research experiences, and international interactions from such institutions are often limited, and
successful recruitment will require advance communication, personal contact, steady training, and
thoughtful mentorship. At MSU, we will draw on the American Indian Research Opportunities (AIRO)
program, which provides opportunities for American Indian students from Montana’s seven tribal colleges
to pursue career fields in science and technology. Whitlock has hosted AIRO students in her laboratory
for several years. At CU, we will recruit undergraduates from under-represented groups through
collaboration with the Minority Action Program of the College of Arts and Sciences and the Ofelia
Miramontes CU-LEAD Alliance Scholarship Fund aimed at recruiting and retaining students of color and
first generation college students. CU’s and UIdaho's McNair Post-Baccalaureate Achievement Programs
will also help us identify low-income, first generation, and underrepresented undergraduate students
preparing for doctoral degrees. The McNair program offers an integrated framework of academic and
personal support intended to ensure that McNair Scholars achieve the well-rounded background
necessary for admission into graduate school.
(2) U.S. academic institutions with educational and/or research programs in environmental science or
related fields. Again, we do not expect students to have prior exposure to field or lab-based research,
and in fact, we intend to recruit from colleges and universities with limited research opportunities.
Directed advertising will be done through colleagues who participate in the Global Palaeofire Working
Group or NOAA’s International Multiproxy Paleofire Database. Among these institutions are Penn State,
Harvard, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri, Arkansas, Arizona, UC Berkeley, N. Arizona, Wyoming, Illinois,
New Mexico, and Nevada.
15
OIP will confer with U.S. PIs and Senior Personnel when designing recruitment and application materials.
International partners will also be consulted for advice on what characteristics are indicators for success
in their environments. Applications will be distributed in ample time to recruit a significant pool of
candidates and prepare them for the international experience. Applications will be evaluated by the
project’s co-PIs, and top candidates will be offered a phone interview, followed by an Adobe Connect
video interview. Selected candidates will receive OIP pre-departure orientation, logistics, placement, and
monitoring as follows:
Orientation: MSU students preparing for an international field study or internship will attend the MSU
study-abroad orientation. Students attending other institutions will be required to attend their home
campus study-abroad orientation. Orientations cover general health, risk and safety management,
cultural adjustment and sensitivity issues. An on-line guidebook will prepare participants for
circumstances specific to the Australia or NZ field study or internship, including a briefing on hazardous
flora and fauna, office protocols, and cultural issues such as working with indigenous peoples. Prior to
departure OIP will talk with each student about final arrangements.
Logistics: OIP will manage all international travel and living logistics for faculty and students. Preparation
for the overseas experience will include verifying that participants have valid passports and work or study
visas and permits, necessary vaccines, appropriate health insurance including evacuation and
repatriation coverage, and contact information for domestic and international assistance. OIP will
purchase airline tickets and ensure that the participant has arrival instructions. OIP in collaboration with
the foreign partners will arrange for transportation, housing and financial terms.
Placement: Internships are most successful when the student and the host organization have a clear,
mutual understanding of duties and obligations. The internship agreement will be crafted prior to the
departure of the participant and will delineate living arrangements, work hours, office protocols, general
work assignments and the final product expectations and the agreement will be signed by the PI, the
foreign sponsor and the participating student.
Monitoring: The student and the host will complete weekly progress reports and meet to discuss project
progress; these reports will be shared with MSU. If serious problems arise, the U.S. PI or OIP manager
will conduct a phone or Adobe Connect conference with the student and foreign sponsor to facilitate a
resolution. OIP will be in regular contact with the participant by email, phone, and/or Adobe Connect
depending on the level of interaction needed. If participants have global-ready cell phones they will be
asked to bring them overseas and activate the international capacity. If not, the participants will be
instructed to buy a cell phone with an internationally capable SIM card.
Re-entry process and on-going monitoring: Students will be contacted shortly after they return to the U.S.
to be debriefed through a post-experience discussion and assessment survey. Students will also be
periodically interviewed during course of the project to track their academic program and career
decisions.
Other project logistics will be coordinated through the MSU OIP and VP Research Office (e.g., travel
arrangements, visas, overseas accommodations, vehicle rentals, and field logistics) and will involve
collaboration with counterparts at partner institutions in Tasmania and NZ and the U.S. In the U.S., we
will provide accommodations in Yellowstone National Park, university housing, public campgrounds, and
university vehicles and other equipment provided by local team members.
5. Management
Management and project oversight will be the responsibility of Whitlock through her position in the VP
Office for Research (Fig. 3, Table 1). Rudman will provide budget, logistical support and coordinate
undergrad recruitment and evaluation through OIP. Web support and workshop facilitation will be
provided by the Big Sky Institute. WildFIRE PIRE communication, online courses, and distance-education
activities will be handled through the Burns Technology Center and Extended University. Co-PIs and
Senior Personnel will be active in research, education, and outreach internationally and in the U.S.
Foreign collaborators will participate at various levels ranging from full engagement to less intensive
advisory levels (see Supplementary Documentation). Univ. Tasmania, Australian National Univ.,
Landcare Research NZ, and Univ. Auckland have local staff to assist with arranging accommodations,
16
Figure 3. WildFIRE PIRE
management plan showing the
structure and accountability for
administrative and fiscal duties;
research and education team
activities; and recruitment,
communication, and outreach.
The plan also shows the reporting
structure for the Science Advisory
Board and External Evaluator
(Assessment).
field access, vehicle rental, and lab space.
Communication: To create a culture of collaboration, we will employ several approaches for
communication and evaluate their success over the course of the project. The WildFIRE PIRE website
will provide an interactive central source of updated project information and communication tools,
including internship opportunities, other position openings, podcasts, blogs, course information, team
biosketches, relevant conferences, meetings, and articles. It will be available for online forums for
threaded discussions on the significance of our work. The website will also support workshop and
registration materials in Years 3 and 5. As the project develops, we may use a wiki for online community
discussion, and we already have a WildFIRE PIRE Google Groups for developing this proposal.
Shared time in the field and lab, as well as web and video conferencing will be essential for achieving
project goals and maintaining communication among partner institutions. Using Adobe Connect and
videoconference facilities at our institutions, we will convene monthly project meetings with partners and
students. These sessions will provide opportunities to present student and PI research findings, evaluate
educational activities, discuss manuscripts in preparation, and cover management and logistical issues.
We will occasionally invite other students, faculty, and other colleagues, including members of our
Advisory Board, to participate, as part of extending our outreach. Broader exchange of ideas will take
place at the two fire science workshops held in Australia and Montana in Years 3 and 5. These 5-day
meetings will bring together the WildFIRE PIRE team, other researchers, land managers, government,
industry, and students.
WildFIRE PIRE Science Advisory Board: To ensure successful outcome of these ambitious research,
educational, and outreach goals, we will seek guidance from a three-member Science Advisory Board,
composed of international leaders in fire science and management. At pre-workshop meetings in Years 3
and 5, and during a videoconference in Year 2, the Board will interact with a majority of the WildFIRE
PIRE Research/Education Team. At the end of the project, the Board will provide a written evaluation of
WildFIRE PIRE, including its accomplishments, lasting impact, and future.
Our Science Advisory Board includes (See Supplementary Documentation): Dr. Patrick Bartlein, Univ.
Oregon, AAAS Fellow, international leader in fire-climate, data analysis and data-model comparisons;
member of the Scientific Steering Group member of the U.K. Global Palaeofire Working Group;
17
Table 1: General timetable for research and educational activities
Category
Recruitment/ training
201011
Task
Planning (Apr-June)
x
Interns
x
x
x
Advertise (May-July)
x
x
x
x
interview/hire (Aug-Oct)
Follow-up interview (May,
Oct)
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Modeling
x
x
x
Data-model comparisons
x
x
x
x
x
4
4
3
3
4
3
develop
x
x
x
x
MarTas
x
x
x
x
SeptU.S.
x
Intern training (Jan, June)
Research
Field work
Tas, NZ
(Feb-Mar)
US (June-Aug)
Lab analysis
Tas, NZ
(Feb-Apr)
Data analysis
U.S. (yr round)
Yr round
Filmmaking
Internships
Foreign (90
dys)
3
US (45 days)
Program Evaluation
x
x
x
Online course
Grad course
Jan 2011
Sept-Dec
Professional Workshops
Two workshops
Publications
Yr round
x
x
x
Professional meetings
Annual
x
x
x
x
x
PIRE Videoconference
Monthly
x
x
x
x
x
Web/podcast design, update
x
x
x
x
x
PIRE Videoconference
(monthly)
x
x
x
x
x
PI/Sr Personnel meetings
Annual
x
Assessment (Formative, 2011; Progress/Form, 2013;
Summative, 2015)
x
x
x
x
x
x
MarTas
Outreach
Communication
2014-15
Recruitment
Post-doc, PhDs hire
Courses
Year (Apr-Mar)
20122011-12
13
2013-14
Advisory Board
Three meetings
videoconf
x
SeptUS
Dr. Penelope Morgan, Univ. Idaho, international leader in fire ecology and fire management, member of
the International Advisory Board of Fire PARADOX which seeks to integrate fire science and
management in the Mediterranean region and Patagonia; Dr. Thomas Swetnam, Univ. Arizona Director of
the Tree-Ring Laboratory, international leader in tree-ring-based fire history, fire climate, and fire
management, a founding member of Scientific Advisory Board of the NOAA IMPD.
Finally, WildFIRE PIRE supports efforts underway through NSF ADVANCE program (MSU’s Big Sky
Leadership) to increase diversity in STEM disciplines. Whitlock serves on the MSU Big Sky Leadership
Board and through workshops, mentoring sessions, and other activities encourages new faculty and
students in relevant STEM fields to become involved in global change and fire science.
6. Assessment
We will hire Dr. Richard Howard as an Evaluation Consultant to design and conduct an assessment
strategy that will provide data-based information to help us continuously evaluate and improve the project.
18
Through regular and systematic assessment, we will obtain critical benchmark information in a timely
manner that will inform us about the effectiveness of our scientific and educational activities. In this way,
we will make informed adjustments to our processes that will support achieving our educational and
research goals of the project; and maintain productive and rewarding collaborations that forge lasting
relationships. Assessment and evaluation will occur throughout all stages of WildFIRE PIRE to help us
deal with the inevitable “surprises” that are part of any complex interdisciplinary collaboration, fine tune
our research and educational objectives, and measure our success in communicating fire science to
students, educators, other researchers, fire managers, as well as citizens. The goal of assessment
activities is to collect and analyze data related to educational and collaborative processes that will support
the evaluation processes described below. The information obtained from these systematic efforts will
inform the project directors about various aspects of the program and allow them to evaluate their
effectiveness. Throughout the project, these assessment efforts will support a comprehensive Formative
Evaluation (Year 1), a Progress Evaluation (Year 3), and a Summative Evaluation (Year 5). A student
data base will be developed to track student progress during their time with the project. We will continue
to track students’ professional and educational growth after leaving the project and periodically survey
and interview them about the impact that participating in the project has had on their careers. Data
collected to support the evaluation of the project will be both qualitative and quantitative. However,
because of the small number of participants (students, partners, and scientists), interviews will be the
primary source of information. These qualitative data will be analyzed in relation to specific processes and
time frames as well as over the course of the project, providing a base for the Summative Evaluation.
Quantitative data will consist of general descriptions of the participants, student academic progress, and
rating of participants’ satisfaction with various aspects of the project. The information gained from
analyses of these data will complement the results of the qualitative data analysis.
Formative Evaluation will help us evaluate initial partnership and educational (undergraduates, graduate,
and post-doctoral) activities to identify problems in structure and implementation that need early
correction. The formative assessment will address such questions as: Are appropriate students selected
through our recruiting strategies? Are appropriate and effective recruitment strategies being used? Are
students with deficiencies in academic preparation, as well as ones with stronger records working well in
the partnership? Is the overall makeup of the partnership consistent with our goal of developing a more
diverse workforce? Are students provided with adequate cultural training to succeed in overseas
settings? Do the activities and strategies match those described in the WildFIRE PIRE plan? Are
students given adequate academic, mentoring, and personal support to succeed? Is the project
management plan well developed and adhered to? Are the international field and laboratory experiences
in Year 1 helping us meet our objectives? Student-related demographic information will be collected from
the students at the beginning of their work on the project. After six weeks, the students will be
interviewed about their work and experience with other members of the project. These interviews will be
replicated at the end of the semester and at year-end. Project scientists working with the students will
also be interviewed to glean their perceptions of students and student progress. From the project’s
perspective, the intent here is to determine if the recruitment processes are attracting students that fit
project objectives and if mentoring and learning opportunities are appropriate and having desired
outcomes. From the students’ perspective, we want to make sure that the expectations they have
developed through the recruitment process are met. The questions addressed in this formative
evaluation reflect critical aspects of the project and will also be addressed in the Progress and Summative
Evaluations.
Progress Evaluation will assess the quality and impact of WildFIRE PIRE as a fully implemented project
to determine whether the partnership is proceeding as planned and whether we are on target to meet the
project’s goals and objectives. By measuring mid-term progress, we can evaluate the impact that
activities and strategies are having on participants, curriculum, or institutions; and identify successes as
well as areas that need adjustment. This information will complement insights provided by the Scientific
Advisory Board in Year 2 concerning our mid-term scientific progress. The Progress Evaluation questions
to be addressed will include: Is WildFIRE PIRE moving toward the anticipated goals of the project? Are
early career, post-doc research associates, and graduate and undergraduate students developing
academic and analytical skills that are serving their career and educational needs? Are the scientific
activities thus far leading to a new level of discovery and facilitating collaboration within and between
19
institutions? Are we creating curricular tools and outreach materials that are valuable to students,
teachers, and other stakeholders? Is participation in WildFIRE PIRE resulting in increased student
enrollment in STEM disciplines, increased retention of STEM students at their respective institutions, and
enhanced career opportunities for young scientists?
Summative Evaluation will provide evidence about whether participants moved toward our anticipated
goals, whether the research and education accomplishments are showing evidence of a lasting impact,
which aspects were most effective and worthy of future investment, and what aspects of the project can
be replicated elsewhere in other settings. This evaluation will also supplement the final evaluation of the
Scientific Advisory Board. A significant component of the summative evaluation will be derived through
an analysis of the data collected throughout the project, the formative evaluation, and the progress
evaluation. These data and the results of the evaluations will provide trend data over the course of the
project that will allow the co-PIs to evaluate their progress toward meeting WildFIRE PIRE science and
educational objectives. Trend data will also provide a tracking mechanism to monitor the viability of the
project’s processes and the impact of changes. In addition, all active participants in the project will be
surveyed and interviewed to glean their perceptions of the project, their satisfaction with specific
outcomes and activities, and insights related to the management and future of WildFIRE PIRE.
As students and other participants leave the project, contacts will be maintained. In particular, interns
from the first years of WildFIRE PIRE will be contacted about their ongoing academic and career activities
and their perspectives on the impact that participation in the project has had on their academic and
professional careers.
A faculty committee in the MSU Science and Natural History Filmmaking program will evaluate the impact
and quality of film and media materials developed during the project. They will also be evaluated by
monitoring the number of times the web-based materials are used or accessed and through a web-based
forum about usefulness and quality of media products. In addition, WildFIRE PIRE scientists, students,
and other educators involved with the project will be asked to provide their evaluation of the usefulness of
these materials.
7. Results of Prior NSF Support (pertains to Whitlock, Veblen only)
BCR 0645821: Mori Transformation of the New Zealand Landscape through the use of Fire: A case
study from south-central South Island, (PI: Cathy Whitlock), 2007-2010; ATM-0117160: Holocene fireclimate-vegetation linkages in the western mid-latitude forests of North and South America (co-PIs: Cathy
Whitlock and Patrick Bartlein), 2001-2006. BCR grant focuses on the ecological consequences of fire at
different elevations in southern South Island NZ, an area of dramatic deforestation, little archeological
evidence of human settlement, and steep elevational gradients. The results have been presented in
three papers [36, 63, 120], three presentations at national and international meetings, and two
manuscripts for Fall 2009 submission. The project has trained four undergraduates (all women) and one
post-doctoral research associate. Activities under ATM-0017160 have led to publications, workshops,
presentations, and training sessions, and helped to build a network of scientific collaborators necessary
for the next phase of fire history study. Results have been published for the Pacific Northwest [121-128];
northern Rockies [129-134]; Yellowstone National Park [87]; northern California [135-140]; and Patagonia
[38,141-144]. Interregional comparisons have been published in scientific [21, 60, 77, 145-150] and nontechnical papers [151-160]. Publications describe new charcoal analytical procedures and conceptual
approaches [107, 147; 162-163]. This work funded two post-doctoral fellows, six graduate students
(including four women), and six undergraduates (including four women and two Asian-Americans).
BCS-0117366: Fire and landscape change in northern Patagonia, Argentina: Integrating landscape
heterogeneity, land use and climatic variability, (PI: T.T Veblen), 2001-2005. This award resulted in 14
articles in refereed journals between 2003 and 2009 [105,164-176], and four book chapters [139, 177179]. Ten graduate or undergraduate students were among the authors. Fourteen papers were
presented at national and international scientific conferences, including eight by students. The award
supported one Master thesis at CU, a Master thesis at Univ. de Buenos Aires, 2 Licenciaturas at Univ. del
Comahue, Argentina and two doctoral students at Univ. del Comahue. It also supported two other CU
grad students and four undergraduates.
20
References (references in bold represent references from prior NSF research)
1.
Bowman, D.M.J.S., Balch, J.K., Artaxo, P., Bond, W.J., Carlson, J.M., Cochrane, M.A., D'Antonio,
C.M., DeFries, R.S., Doyle, J.C., Harrison, S.P., Johnston, F.H., Keeley, J.E., Krawchuk, M.A., Kull,
C.A., Marston, J.B., Moritz, M.A., Prentice, I.C., Roos, C.I., Scott, A.C., Swetnam, T.W., van der
Werf, G.R., Pyne, S.J. 2009. Fire in the Earth System. Science 324, 481-484.
2.
Flannigan, M.D., Krawchuck, M.A., de Groot, W.J., Wotton, B.M., Gowman, L.M. 2009. Implications
of changing climate for global wildland fire. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, 483-507.
3.
Mouillot, F., Field, C.B. 2005. Fire history and the global carbon budget: a 1x1 degree fire history
reconstruction for the 20th century. Global Change Biology 11, 398-420.
4.
Marlon, J.R., Bartlein, P.J., Carcaillet, C., Gavin, D.G., Harrison, S.P., Higuera, P.E., Joos, F.,
Power, M.J., Prentice, I.C. 2008. Climate and human influences on global biomass burning over the
past two millennia. Nature Geoscience 1, 697-702.
5.
Bonan, G.B. 2008. Forests and Climate Change: Forcings, Feedbacks, and the Climate Benefits of
Forests. Science 320, 1444-1449.
6.
Running, S.W. 2008. Climate Change: Ecosystem Disturbance, Carbon, and Climate. Science 321,
652-653.
7.
Westerling, A.L., Hidalgo, H.G., Cayan, D.R., Swetnam, T.W. 2006. Warming and earlier spring
increase western US forest wildfire activity. Science 313, 940-943.
8.
van Mantgem, P.J., Stephenson, N.L., Byrne, J.C., Daniels, L.D., Franklin, J.F., Fule, P.Z., Harmon,
M.E., Larson, A.J., Smith, J.M., Taylor, A.H., Veblen, T.T. 2009. Widespread Increase of Tree
Mortality Rates in the Western United States. Science 323, 521-524.
9.
Menakis, J.P., Osborne, D., Miller, M. 2003. Mapping the Cheatgrass Caused Departure from
Historical Natural Fire Regimes in the Great Basin. USDA, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain
Research Station, 281-287 pp.
10.
Zwartz, B. (2009, February 9th). “Victoria’s deadly summers”. The Canberra Times. [online]
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/national/national/general/victorias-deadlysummers/1428037.aspx
11.
Keeley, J.E., 2006. Fire management impacts on invasive plant species in the western United
States. Conservation Biology 20, 375-384.
12.
D’Antonio, C.M., Vitousek, P.M. 1992. Biological invasions by exotic grasses, the grass/fire cycle,
and global change. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 23, 63-87.
13.
DeBano, L.F., Neary, D.G., Folliott, P.F. 1998. "Fire' s Effects on Ecosystems." John Wiley & Sons,
New York.
14.
Gude, P.H., Hansen, A.J., Rasker, R., Maxwell, B. 2006. Rate and drivers of rural residential
development in the Greater Yellowstone. Landscape and Urban Planning 77, 131-151.
15.
Magnani, F., Mencuccini, M., Borghetti, M., Berbigier, P., Berninger, F., Delzon, S., Grelle, A., Hari,
P., Jarvis, P.G., Kolari, P., Kowalski, A.S., Lankreijer, H., Law, B.E., Lindroth, A., Loustau, D.,
Manca, G., Moncrieff, J.B., Rayment, M., Tedeschi, V., Valentini, R., Grace, J. 2007. The human
footprint in the carbon cycle of temperate and boreal forests. Nature 447, 849-851.
16.
Sauer, C. 1950. Grassland climax, fire, and man. Journal of Range Management 3, 16-21.
17.
Hardy, C.C. 2005. Hardy, Wildfire hazard and risk: problems, definitions, and contexts, Forest
Ecology and Management. 211, 73-82.
18.
McCarthy, M.A., Gill, A. M., Bradstock, R.A. 2001. Theoretical fire-interval distributions.
International Journal of Wildland Fire. 10, 73-77.
1
19.
Kitzberger, T., Brown, P.M., Heyerdahl, E.K., Swetnam, T.W., Veblen, T.T. 2007. Contingent
Pacific-Atlantic Ocean influence on multicentury wildfire synchrony over western North America.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104, 543-548.
20.
Gavin, D.G., Hallett, D.J., Hu, F.S., Lertzman, K.P., Prichard, S.J., Brown, K.J., Lynch, J.A.,
Bartlein, P., Peterson, D.L. 2007. Forest fire and climate change in western North America: insights
from sediment charcoal records. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 5, 499-506.
21.
Whitlock, C., Marlon, J., Briles, C., Brunelle, A., Long, C., Bartlein, P. 2008. Long-term
relations among fire, fuel, and climate in the north-western US based on lake-sediment
studies. International Journal of Wildland Fire 17, 72-83.
22.
Arseneault, D., Payette, S. 1992. A postfire shift from lichen-spruce to lichen-tundra vegetation at
tree line. Ecology 73, 1067-1081.
23.
Landhausser, S.M., Wein, R.W. 1993. Postfire vegetation recovery and tree establishment at the
Arctic treeline: climate-change--vegetation-response hypotheses. Journal of Ecology 81, 665-672.
24.
Bachelet, D., Lenihan, J.M., Daly, C., Neilson, R.P. 2000. Interactions between fire, grazing and
climate change at Wind Cave National Park, SD. Ecological Modelling 134, 229-244.
25.
Veblen, T.T., Hadley, K.S., Nel, E.M., Kitzberger, T., Reid, R., Villalba, R. 1994. Disturbance regime
and disturbance interactions in a Rocky Mountain subalpine forest. Journal of Ecology 82, 125-135.
26.
Bebi, P., Kulakowski, D., Veblen, T.T. 2003. Interactions between fire and spruce beetles in a
subalpine Rocky Mountain forest landscape. Ecology 81, 362-371.
27.
Bigler, C., Kulakowski, D., Veblen, T.T. 2005. Multiple disturbance interactions and drought
influence fire severity in Rocky Mountain subalpine forests. Ecology 86, 3018-3029.
28.
Kerby, J.D., Fuhlendorf, S.D., Engle, D.M. 2007. Landscape heterogeneity and fire behavior: scale
dependent feedback between fire and grazing processes. Landscape Ecology 22, 507-516.
29.
Malamud, B.D., Millington, J.D.A., Perry, G.L.W. 2005. Characterizing wildfire regimes in the United
States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
102:4694-4699.
30.
CCSP, 2009. Thresholds of climate change in ecosystems. A report by the U.S. Climate Change
Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. [Fagre, D.B., Charles, C.W.,
Allen, C.D., Birkeland, C., Chapin, F.S. III, Groffman, P.M., Guntenspergen, G.R., Knapp, A.K.,
McGuire, A.D., Mulholland, P.J., Peters, D.P.C., Roby, D.D., Sugihara, G]. U.S. Geological Survey,
Reston, WA, 156 pp.
31.
IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to
the Fourth Assessment. Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp.
32.
Reid, W.V., Brechignac, C., Tseh Lee, Y. 2009. Earth System Research Priorities. Science 325,
245.
33.
Lavorel, S., Flannigan, M., Lambin, E., Scholes, M. 2007. Vulnerability of land systems to fire:
Interactions among humans, climate, the atmosphere, and ecosystems. Mitigation and Adaptation
Strategies for Global Change 12, 33-53.
34.
Cullen, P.J. 1987. Regeneration patterns in populations of Athrotaxis selaginoides D. Don from
Tasmania. Journal of Biogeography 14, 39-51.
35.
Brown, M.J. 1988. Distribution and Conservation of King Billy Pine. Tasmania Forestry
Commission.
36.
Whitlock, C., Higuera, P.E., McWethy, D.B., Briles, C. Paleoecological perspective on fire ecology:
revisiting the fire regime concept. The Open Ecology Journal, In review.
2
37.
Marsden-Smedley,J.B., Kirkpatrick, J.B. 2000. Fire management in Tasmania’s Wilderness World
Heritage Area: Ecosystem restoration using Indigenous-style fire regimes? Ecological
Management and Restoration 1, 195-203.
38.
Whitlock, C., Bianchi, M.M., Bartlein, P.J., Markgraf, V., Marlon, J., Walsh, M., McCoy, N.
2006. Postglacial vegetation, climate, and fire history along the east side of the Andes (lat
41-42.5 S), Argentina: Quaternary Research 66,: 187-201.
39.
Veblen, T.T. Disturbance and vegetation dynamics in the southern Andean region of Chile
and Argentina. Chapter 11 in: R.H. Webb, R. Turner, D.E. Boyer (eds). Repeat Landscape
Photography and Environmental Change. Island Press, In Press.
40.
Perry, G.L.W., Enright, N.J. 2002. Humans, fire and landscape pattern: understanding a maquisforest complex, Mont Do, New Caledonia, using a spatial 'state-and-transition' model. Journal of
Biogeography 29, 1143-1158.
41.
Ogden, J., Basher, L., McGlone, M. 1998. Fire, forest regeneration and links with early human
habitation: Evidence from New Zealand. Annals of Botany 81, 687-696.
42.
Jackson, W.D. 1968. Fire, air, water and earth - an elemental ecology of Tasmania. Proceedings of
the Ecological Society of Australia 3, 9-16.
43.
Díaz, S., Hodgson, J.G., Thompson, K., Cabido, M., Cornelissen, J.H.C., Jalili, A., Montserrat-Martí,
G., Grime, J.P., Zarrinkamar, F., Asri, Y., Band, S.R., Basconcelo, S., Castro-Díez, P., Funes, G.,
Hamzehee, B., Khoshnevi, M., Pérez-Harguindeguy, N., Pérez-Rontomé, M.C., Shirvany, A.,
Vendramini, F., Yazdani, S., Abbas-Azimi, R., Bogaard, A., Boustani, S., Charles, M., Dehghan, M.,
de Torres-Espuny, L., Falczuk, V., Guerrero-Campo, J., Hynd, A., Jones, G., Kowsary, E., KazemiSaeed, F., Maestro-Martínez, M., Romo-Díez, A., Shaw, S., Siavash, B., Villar-Salvador, P., Zak,
M. R., Rapson, G. 2004. The plant traits that drive ecosystems: Evidence from three continents.
Journal of Vegetation Science 15, 295-304.
44.
Steffen, W. 2009. Climate Change 2009: Faster change and more serious risks. Dept. of Climate
Change. Commonwealth of Australia. [onlne: http://www.anu.edu.au/climatechange/wpcontent/uploads/2009/07/climate-change-faster-change-and-more-serious-risks-final.pdf].
45.
Macphail, M.K. 1980. Regeneration processes in Tasmanian forests; a long term perspective based
on pollen analysis. Search 11:184-190.
46.
Fletcher, M.S., Thomas, I. 2007. Holocene vegetation and climate change from near Lake Pedder,
south-west Tasmania, Australia. Journal of Biogeography 34, 665-677.
47.
Rees, A., Cwynar, L., Cranston, P. 2008. Midges (Chironomidae, Ceratopogonidae, Chaoboridae)
as a temperature proxy: a training set from Tasmania, Australia. Journal of Paleolimnology
40:1159-1178.
48.
Cullen, P.J., Kirkpatrick, J.B. 1988a. The Distributions and Ecological Differentiation of A.
cupressoides and A. selaginoides. Australian Journal of Botany 36, 561-573.
49.
Cullen, P.J., Kirkpatrick, J.B. 1988b. The Ecology of Athrotaxis D. Don (Taxodiaceae). I. Stand
Structure and Regeneration of A. cupressoides. Australian Journal of Botany 36, 547-560.
50.
Ogden, J. 1978. Investigations of the Dendrochronology of the Genus Athrotaxis D.Don
(Taxodiaceae) in Tasmania. Tree-Ring Bulletin 38, 1-13.
51.
Cook, E., Bird, T., Peterson, M., Barbetti, M., Buckley, B., D'arrigo, R., Francey, R., Tans, P. 1991.
Climatic Change in Tasmania Inferred from a 1089-Year Tree-Ring Chronology of Huon Pine.
Science 253, 1266-1268.
52.
Allen, K.J., Cook, E.R., Francey, R.J., Michael, K. 2001. The Climatic Response of Phyllocladus
aspleniifolius (Labill.) Hook. f in Tasmania. Journal of Biogeography 28, 305-316.
53.
Nichols, N., Lucas, C. 2007. Interannual variations of area burnt in Tasmanian bushfires:
relationships with climate and predictability. International Journal of Wildland Fire 16, 540-546.
3
54.
Nicholls, N. 2009. Local and remote causes of the southern Australian autumn-winter rainfall
decline, 1958–2007. Climate Dynamics. 32. In press [online: doi: 10.1007/s00382-009-0527-6].
55.
Zhang, Y., Wallace, J.M., Battisti, D.S. 1997. ENSO-like Interdecadal Variability: 1900-93. Journal
of Climate 10, 1004.
56.
Pezza, A. B., Durrant, T., Simmonds, I., Smith, I. 2008. Southern Hemisphere Synoptic Behavior in
Extreme Phases of SAM, ENSO, Sea IceExtent, and Southern Australia Rainfall Journal of Climate
21, 5566-5584.
57.
Ummenhofer, C., England, M.H., McIntosh, P.C., Meyers, G.A., Pook, M.J., Risbey, J.S., Sen
Gupta, A., Taschetto, A.S. 2009. What causes southeast Australia’s worst droughts? Geophysical
Research Letters 36. [online: L04706,doi:10.1029/2008GL036801].
58.
Veblen, T.T., Kitzberger, T., Villalba, R., Donnegan, J. 1999. Fire history in northern Patagonia: the
roles of humans and climatic variation. Ecological Monographs 69, 46-67.
59.
Holz, A., Veblen. T.T. 2009. Pilgerodendron uviferum: the southernmost tree-ring fire recorder
species. Ecoscience, In Press.
60.
Whitlock, C., Moreno, P. I., Bartlein, P. 2007. Climatic controls of Holocene fire patterns in
southern South America. Quaternary Research 68, 28-36.
61.
Schoennagel, T., Veblen, T.T., Kulakowski, D., Holz, A. 2007. Multidecadal climate variability and
climate interactions affect subalpine fire occurrence, Western Colorado (USA). Ecology 88, 28912902.
62.
Wilmshurst, J.M., Anderson, A.J., Higham, T.F.G., Worthy, T.H. 2008. Dating the late prehistoric
dispersal of Polynesians to New Zealand using the commensal Pacific rat. Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences 105, 7676-7680.
63.
McWethy, D.B., Whitlock, C., Wilmshurst, J.M., McGlone, M.S., Li, X. 2009. Rapid
deforestation of South Island, New Zealand by early Polynesian fires. The Holocene 19:883897.
64.
Cook, E. unpublished data, provided July 2009.
65.
McGlone, M.S., Turney, C.S.M., Wilmshurst, J.M. 2004. Late-glacial and Holocene vegetation and
climatic history of the Cass basin, central south island, New Zealand. Quaternary Research 62,
267-279.
66.
McGlone, M., Mark, A.F., Bell, D. 1995. Late Pleistocene and Holocene vegetation history, Central
Otago, South Island, New Zealand. Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand 25, 1-22.
67.
Wardle, P. 1980. Ecology and distribution of silver beech (Nothofagus menziesii) in the Paringa
District, South Westland, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Ecology 3, 23-36.
68.
Anderson, A. 1998. The welcome of strangers: an ethnohistory of southern Maori A.D. 1650–1850.
University of Otago Press, Dunedin.
69.
Hamel, J. 2001. The archaeology of Otago. Report of the Dept. of Conservation, New Zealand,
Wellington, New Zealand.
70.
McGlone, M.S., Wilmshurst, J.M. 1999. Dating initial Maori environmental impact in New Zealand.
Quaternary International 59, 5-16.
71.
Meltzer, D.J. 2009. First Peoples in a New World: Colonizing Ice Age America. University of
California Press.
72.
Baker, W.L. 2002. Indians and fire in the Rocky Mountains: the wilderness hypothesis renewed. Pp.
41-76. In Fire, native peoples, and the natural landscape (T.R. Vale, ed.). Island Press,
Washington, D.C.
4
73.
Jenkins, M.J., Hebertson, E., Page, W., Jorgensen, C.A. 2008. Bark beetles, fuels, fires and
implications for forest management in the Intermountain West. Forest Ecology and Management
254, 16-34.
74.
Raffa, K.F., Aukema, B.H., Bentz, B.J., Carroll A.L., Hicke, J.A., Turner, M.G., Romme, W.H. 2008.
Cross-scale drivers of natural disturbances prone to anthropogenic amplification: Dynamics of
biome-wide bark beetle eruptions. Bioscience 58, 501-517.
75.
Maxwell, B.D., Lehnhoff, E.A., Rew, L.J. 2009. The rationale for monitoring invasive plant
populations as a crucial step for management. Invasive Plant Science & Management, In Press.
76.
Parks, C.G., Radosevish, S.R., Endress, B.A., Naylor, B.J., Anzinger, D., Rew, L.J., Maxwell, B.D.
Dwire, K.A. 2005. Natural and land use history of the Northwest Mountainous Ecoregions (U.S.A.)
in relation to patterns of plant invasions. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics.
7, 137-158.
77.
Whitlock, C., Shafer, S.H., Marlon, J. 2003a. The role of climate and vegetation change in
shaping past and future fire regimes in the northwestern U.S., and the implications for
ecosystem management. Forest Ecology and Management 178, 5-21.
78.
Higuera, P.E., Whitlock, C., Gage, J. “Fire history and climate-vegetation-fire linkages in subalpine
forests of Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, U.S.A., AD 1240-1975”, The Holocene, In Review.
79.
Parmenter, A.P., Hansen, A., Kennedy, R., Cohen, W., Langner, U., Lawrence, R., Maxwell, B.,
Gallant, A., Aspinall, R. 2003. Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Greater Yellowstone
Ecosystem: 1975-95. Ecological Applications 13: 687-703.
80.
Hansen, A.J., Rotella, J.J. 2002. Biophysical factors, land use, and species viability in and around
nature reserves. Conservation Biology 16, 1-12.
81.
Wright, A., Hansen, A., Kennedy, R., Cohen, W., Langner, U., Lawrence, R., Aspinall, R., Maxwell,
B., Gallant, A. 2003. Vectors of Change in the American West: The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem
1975-95. Ecological Applications 13, 687-703.
82.
Gray, S. T., Betancourt, J.L., Fastie, C.L., Jackson, S.T. 2007. Annual precipitation in the
Yellowstone National Park region since AD 1173. Quaternary Research 68, 18-27.
83.
Whitlock, C. 1993 Postglacial vegetation and climate of Grand Teton and southern Yellowstone
National Parks. Ecological Monographs 63, 173-198.
84.
Whitlock, C.B., Bartlein, P.J. 1993. Spatial variations of Holocene climatic change in the
Yellowstone region. Quaternary Research 39, 231-238.
85.
Whitlock, C., Bartlein, P.J., Van Norman, K.J. 1995 Stability of Holocene climate regimes in the
Yellowstone region. Quaternary Research 43, 433-436.
86.
Bartlein, P.J., Whitlock, C., Shafer, S.L. 1997. Future climate in the Yellowstone National Park
region and its potential impact on vegetation. Conservation Biology 11, 782-792.
87.
Millspaugh, S.H., Whitlock, C., Bartlein, P. 2004. Postglacial fire, vegetation and climate
history of the Yellowstone-Lamar and Central Plateau provinces, Yellowstone National Park.
Pp. 10-28. In After the fires: the ecology of change in Yellowstone National Park (L. Wallace,
ed.). Yale University Press.
88.
Schrag, A.M., Bunn, A.G., Graumlich, L.J. 2008. Influence of bioclimatic variables on tree-line
conifer distribution in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem: implications for species of conservation
concern. Journal of Biogeography 35, 698-710.
89.
Rew, L.J., Maxwell, B.D., Aspinall, R. 2005. Predicting the occurrence of non-indigenous species
using environmental and remotely sensed data. Weed Science 53, 236-241.
90.
Rew, L.J., Maxwell, B.D., Aspinall, R.J., Dougher, F.L. 2006. Searching for a needle in a haystack:
evaluating survey methods for sessile species. Biological Invasions 8, 523-539.
5
91.
Lehnhoff, E.A., Maxwell, B.D., Rew, L.J. 2008. Quantifying invasiveness of plants: A test case with
yellow toadflax (Linaria vulgaris). Invasive Plant Science & Management 1, 319-325.
92.
Crossman, N. D., Bass, D. A. 2008. Application of common predictive habitat techniques for postborder weed risk Management. Diversity and Distributions 14, 213-224.
93.
Riebsame, W.E., Gosnell, H., Theobald, D.M. 1996. Land use and landscape change in the
Colorado mountains I: Theory, scale, and pattern. Mountain Research and Development 16, 395405.
94.
Theobald, D.M., Gosnell, H., Riebsame, W.E. 1996. Land use and landscape change in the
Colorado mountains II: A case study of the East River Valley, Colorado. Mountain Research and
Development 16, 407-418.
95.
Veblen, T.T., Kitzberger, T., Donnegan, J. 2000. Climatic and human influences on fire regimes in
ponderosa pine forests in the Colorado Front Range. Ecological Applications 10, 1178-1195.
96.
Schoennagel, T., Veblen, T.T., Romme, W.H., Sibold, J.S., Cook, E.R. 2005. Enso and pdo
variability affect drought-induced fire occurrence in Rocky Mountain subalpine forests. Ecological
Applications 15, 2000-2014.
97.
Sibold, J.S., Veblen, T.T. 2006. Relationships of subalpine forest fires in the Colorado Front Range
with interannual and multidecadal-scale climatic variation. Journal of Biogeography 33, 833-842.
98.
Sherriff, R.L., Veblen, T.T. 2008. Variability in fire-climate relationships in ponderosa pine forests in
the Colorado Front Range. International Journal of Wildland Fire 17, 50-59.
99.
Sherriff, R.L., Veblen, T.T.. 2007. A spatially explicit reconstruction of historical fire occurrence in
the ponderosa pine zone of the Colorado Front Range. Ecosystems 9, 1342-1347.
100. Sibold, J.S., Veblen, T.T., Gonzalez, M.E. 2006. Spatial and temporal variation in historic fire
regimes in subalpine forests across the Colorado Front Range in Rocky Mountain National Park,
Colorado, USA. Journal of Biogeography 33, 631-647.
101. Higuera, P.E., Whitlock, C. 2008. Spatial and temporal evolution of subalpine forest re regimes
during the late Holocene, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Page 144 in 93th Annual
Meeting of the Ecological Society of America. Milwaukee, WI.
102. Kulakowski, D., Veblen, T.T. 2006. Effect of prior disturbances on the extent and severity of a 2002
wildfire in Colorado subalpine forests. Ecology 88, 759-769.
103. Platt, R.V., Veblen, T.T., Sherriff, R.S. 2006. Are wildfire mitigation and restoration of historic forest
structure compatible? A spatial modeling assessment. Annals Association of American
Geographers 96, 455-470.
104. Platt, R.V., Veblen, T.T., Sherriff, R.L. 2008. Spatial Model of Forest Management Strategies and
Outcomes in the Wildland--Urban Interface. Natural Hazards Review 9, 199-208.
105. Mermoz, M., Kitzberger, T., Veblen, T. 2005. Landscape influences on occurrence and spread
of wildfires in Patagonian forests and shrublands. Ecology, 2705-2715.
106. Villalba, R., Veblen, T.T. 1997. Regional patterns of tree population age structures in northern
Patagonia: climatic and disturbance influences. Journal of Ecology 85, 113-124.
107. Whitlock, C., Larsen, C.P.S. 2001. Charcoal as a Fire Proxy. Pp. 75-97. In Tracking
Environmental Change Using Lake Sediments: Volume 3 Terrestrial, Algal, and Siliceous
indicators (J.P. Smol, H.J.B. Birks, W.M. Last, eds.). Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.
108. Higuera, P.E., Brubaker, L.B., Anderson, P.M., Hu, F.S., Brown, T.A. 2009. Vegetation mediated
the impacts of postglacial climate change on fire regimes in the south-central Brooks Range,
Alaska. Ecological Monographs 79:201-219.
6
109. Higuera, P.E., Peters, M.E., Brubaker, L.B., Gavin, D.G. 2007. Understanding the origin and
analysis of sediment-charcoal records with a simulation model. Quaternary Science Reviews 26,
1790-1809.
110. Keane, R.E., Holsinger, L.M., Parsons, R.A., Gray, K. 2008. Climate change effects on historical
range and variability of two large landscapes in western Montana, USA. Forest Ecology and
Management 254, 375-389.
111. Perry, G.L.W., Enright, N.J., 2007. Contrasting outcomes of spatially implicit and spatially explicit
models of vegetation dynamics in a forest-shrubland mosaic. Ecological Modelling 207, 327-338.
112. Perry, G.L.W., Millington, J.D.A. 2008. Spatial modelling of succession-disturbance dynamics in
forest ecosystems: concepts and examples. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution &
Systematics 9, 191-210.
113. Brubaker, L.B., Higuera, P.E., Rupp, T.S., Olson, M., Anderson, P.M., Hu, F.S. 2009. Linking
sediment-charcoal records and ecological modeling to understand causes of fire-regime change in
boreal forests. Ecology, 90, 1788-1801.
114. Australian Government: Department of Education, Employment, and Workplace Relations. An
Environmentally Sustainable Australia. 2009. [online]
http://www.dest.gov.au/sectors/research_sector/policies_issues_reviews/key_issues/national_resea
rch_priorities/priority_goals/environmentally_sustainable_australia.htm
115. New Zealand Department of Conservation: General Conservation Policy. 2005. [online]
http://www.doc.govt.nz/publications/about-doc/role/policies-and-plans/conservation-general-policy/
116. The Greater Yellowstone Science Learning Center is a portal to information about the natural and
cultural resources of Yellowstone and Grand Teton (including John D. Rockefeller, Jr. Memorial
Parkway) national parks and Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area. [online]
http://www.GreaterYellowstoneScience.org
117. Kaufmann, M.R., Veblen, T.T., Romme, W.H. 2006. Historical fire regimes in ponderosa pine
forests of the Colorado Front Range, and recommendations for ecological restoration and fuels
management. . The Nature Conservancy and Front Range Fuels Partnership report.
http://www.frftp.org/docs/pipo.pdf.
118. Montana University System: Science & Technology Plan. 2009. [online] Montana Science for
Montana Citizens. http://mus.edu/data/strategic_plan.asp
119. Di Meglio, F. (2009, October 16th). “MSU is one of the 10 lesser known schools making their mark
in tech development”. Businessweek. [online]
http://www.businessweek.com/bschools/content/oct2007/bs20071016_313906.htm
120. Swetnam, T.W., Whitlock, C. 2009. Chapter 3: Paleofire and Climate History: Western America
and Global Perspectives’. In Johann Goldammer (Ed.) ‘UN White Paper on Vegetation Fires and
Global Change’ (in prep. by the Global Fire Monitoring Center).
121. Long C.J., Whitlock, C., Bartlein, P.J. 2007. Holocene vegetation and ire history of the Coast
Range, western Oregon, USA. The Holocene 17, 917-926.
122. Long, C.J., Whitlock, C. 2003. Fire and vegetation history from the Picea sitchensis forest of
the Oregon Coast Range. Quaternary Research 58, 215-225.
123. Long, C.J. 2003. Holocene fire and vegetation history of the Oregon Coast Range, USA.
Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Oregon, Eugene.
124. Blinnikov, M., Busacca, A., Whitlock, C. 2001. A new 100,000-year phytolith record from the
Columbia Basin, Washington, USA. Pp. 27-55. In Phytoliths: Applications in Earth Science.
and Human History (J. Dominique Meunier, ed.),. A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam.
125. Blinnikov, M., Busacca, A., Whitlock, C. 2002. Reconstruction of the late-Pleistocene
grassland of the Columbia Basin, Washington, USA, based on phytolith records in loess.
Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 177: 77-101.
7
126. Grigg, L.D., Whitlock, C. 2002. Patterns and causes of millennial-scale climate change in the
Pacific Northwest during the last glacial period. Quaternary Science Reviews 21, 2067-2083.
127. Grigg, L.D., Whitlock, C., Dean, W.E. 2001. Evidence for millennial-scale climate change
during marine isotope stages 2 and 3 at Little Lake, western Oregon, USA. Quaternary
Research 56, 10-22.
128. Gardner, J.J., Whitlock, C. 2001. Charcoal accumulation following a recent fire in the
Cascade Range, northwestern USA, and its relevance for fire-history studies. The Holocene
11, 541-549.
129. Power, M.J., Whitlock, C., Bartlein, P.J., Stevens, L.R. 2006. Fire and vegetation history
during the last 3800 years in northwestern Montana. Geomorphology 75, 420-436.
130. Pederson, G., Whitlock, C., Watson, E., Graumlich, L.E. 2006. Paleoperspectives on climate
and ecosystem change. Pp. 151-170. In Sustaining Rocky Mountain Landscapes: science,
policy, and management of the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem (T. Prato and D. Fagre,
eds.). RFF Press.
131. Brunelle, A., Whitlock, C. 2003. Holocene vegetation, fire, and climate history from the
Selway Mountains, Idaho. Quaternary Research 60, 307-318.
132. Brunelle, A., Whitlock, C., Bartlein, P.J., Kipfmuller, K. 2005. Postglacial fire, climate, and
vegetation history along an environmental gradient in the Northern Rocky Mountains.
Quaternary Science Reviews 24, 2281-2300.
133. Brunelle-Daines, A. 2002. Holocene changes in fire, climate, and vegetation in the northern
Rocky Mountains of Idaho and western Montana. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Oregon,
Eugene.
134. Whitlock, C., Reasoner, M.A., Key, C.H. 2002a. Paleoenviromental History of the Rocky
Mountain region during the last 20,000 years. Pp. 41-59. In Rocky Mountain Futures: An
Ecological Perspective (J.A. Barron, ed.). Island Press, Washington.
135. Daniels, M., Anderson, R.S., Whitlock, C. 2005. Vegetation history since the late-Pleistocene
at Mumbo Lake, northern California. The Holocene 15, 1062-1071.
136. Briles, C., Whitlock, C., Bartlein, P.J. 2005. Postglacial vegetation, fire and climate history of
the Siskiyou Mountains, Oregon, USA. Quaternary Research 64, 44-56.
137. Briles, C.B., Whitlock, C., Bartlein, P.J., Higuera, P.E. 2008. Regional and local controls on
postglacial vegetation and fire in the Siskiyou Mountains, northern California, USA.
Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 265, 159-169.
138. Briles, C.E. 2003. Postglacial vegetation and fire history near Bolan Lake in the northern
Siskiyou Mountains of Oregon. M.S. thesis, Department of Geography, University of Oregon,
Eugene.
139. Whitlock, C., Skinner, C.N., Bartlein, P.J., Minckley, T.A., Mohr, J.A. 2004a. Comparison of
charcoal and tree-ring records of recent fires in the eastern Klamath Mountains California,
USA. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 34, 2110-2121.
140. Brunelle-Daines, A., Anderson, R.S. 2002. Sedimentary charcoal as an indicator of LateHolocene drought in the Sierra Nevada, California and its relevance to the future. The
Holocene 13, 21-28.
141. Whitlock, C., Bartlein, P., Bianchi, M.M., Briles, C., Brunelle, A., Long, C., Markgraf, V.,
Marlon, J., Meeker, C., Power, M., Walsh M. 2003a. Disturbance frequency changes in
western North and South America during the Holocene. Abstract, AGU Fall Meeting, San
Francisco.
142. Markgraf, V., Whitlock, C., Haberle, S. 2007. Vegetation and fire history during the last 18,000
cal yr B.P. in southern Patagonia: Mallin Pollux, Coyhaique, Province Aisén (45º41’30” S,
8
71º50”30” W, 640 m elev.). Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 254, 292507.
143. Markgraf, V., Whitlock, C., Anderson, R. S., García, A. 2009. Late Quaternary vegetation and
fire history in the northernmost Nothofagus forest region: Mallín Vaca Lauquen, Neuquén
Province, Argentina. Journal of Quaternary Science 24, 248-258.
144. Bianchi, M.M., Markgraf, V., Whitlock, C. 2003. Forest history along the eastern Andean flank
(40°S) as recorded by pollen and charcoal records of peat and lake sediments. Abstract,
INQUA Congress, Reno.
145. Marlon, J., Bartlein, P. J., Whitlock, C. 2006. Fire-fuel-climate linkages in the northwestern
USA during the Holocene. The Holocene 16, 1059-1071.
146. Shafer, S.L., Bartlein, P.J., Whitlock, C. 2005. Understanding the spatial heterogeneity of
global environmental change in mountain regions. Pp. 21-31. In Global Change and
Mountain Regions (U. Huber, M. Reasoner, and H. Bugmann, eds.). Kluwer, Dordrecht.
147. Whitlock, C., Bartlein, P.J. 2004. Holocene fire activity as a record of past environmental
change. Pp. 479-489. In Developments in Quaternary Science Volume 1 (A. Gillespie and
S.C. Porter, eds.). Elsevier, NY.
148. Whitlock, C. 2002. Variations in Holocene fire frequency: a view from the western United
States. Biology and Environment: Proceedings of the Royal Irish Academy 101B, 65-77.
149. Whitlock, C., Bartlein, P.J., Markgraf, V., Ashworth, A.C. 2001. The mid-latitudes of North
and South America during the Last Glacial Maximum and early Holocene: Similar
paleoclimatic sequences despite differing large-scale controls Pp. 391-416. In
Interhemispheric Climate Linkages: Present and Past Interhemispheric Climate Linkages in
the Americas and their Societal Effects (V. Markgraf, ed.). Academic Press, New York, NY.
150. Whitlock, C., Reasoner, M.A., Key, C.H. 2002a. Paleoenviromental History of the Rocky
Mountain region during the last 20,000 years. Pp. 41-59. In Rocky Mountain Futures: An
Ecological Perspective (J.A. Barron, ed.). Island Press, Washington.
151. Whitlock, C., Bartlein, P.J., Marlon, J., Brunelle, A., Long, C. 2003c. Holocene fire
reconstructions from the northwestern U.S.: an examination at multiple time scales. Second
International Wildland Fire Ecology and Fire Management Congress (extended abstract).
4C.1, 7 pp. http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/66514.pdf.
152. Whitlock, C., Bartlein, P., Bianchi, M.M., Briles, C., Brunelle, A., Long, C., Markgraf, V.,
Marlon, J., Meeker C., Power, M., Walsh, M. 2003a. Disturbance frequency changes in
western North and South America during the Holocene. Abstract, AGU Fall Meeting, San
Francisco.
153. Whitlock, C., Bartlein, P.J., Markgraf, V., Bianchi, M.M., Marlon, J.R. 2004b. Comparison of
Holocene fire history records from temperate latitudes of North and South America.
Abstract, AGU Fall meeting, San Francisco.
154. Walsh, M. 2005 Vegetation history of the southern Willamette Valley. Mount Pisgah
Abororetum Field Guidebook.
155. Whitlock, C. 2004. Forests, fires and climate. Nature 432, 28-29.
156. Pierce, K.L., Despain, D., Whitlock, C., Cannon, K.P., Meyer, G., Morgan, L. 2003. Quaternary
geology and ecology of the greater Yellowstone area. 2003. In Quaternary Geology of the
United States (D.J. Easterbrook, ed.), INQUA 2003 Field Guide Volume (Desert Research
Institute, Reno).
157. Pierce, K.L., Despain, D., Whitlock, C., Meyer, G., Licciardi, J., Cannon, K. 2006. Quaternary
of the Northern Yellowstone Area Field Trip Guide. American Quaternary Association
Biennial Meeting, Bozeman MT, August 17-20, 2006.
9
158. Overpeck, J.T., Whitlock, C., Huntley, B. 2002. Terrestrial biosphere dynamics in the climate
system: past and future. Pp. 81-103. In Paleoclimate, Global Change, and the Future (K.D.
Alverson, R.S. Bradley and T. Pedersen, eds.). Springer, Berlin.
159. Spies, T.A., Hibbs, D.E., Ohmann, J.L., Reeves, G.H., Pabst, R.J., Swanson, F.J., Whitlock, C.,
Jones, J.A., Wemple, B.C., Parendes, L.A., Schrader, B.A. 2002. The ecological basis of
forest ecosystem management in the Oregon Coast Range. Pp. 31-67. In Forest and Stream
Management in the Oregon Coast Range (S.D. Hobbs, J.P. Hayes, R. L. Johnson, G.H.
Reeves, T.A. Spies, J.C. Tappeiner, G.E. Wells, eds.). Oregon State University Press,
Corvallis.
160. Whitlock, C., Knox, M.A. 2002a. Prehistoric Burning in the Pacific Northwest. In: Fire, Native
Peoples, and the Natural Landscape (T.R. Vale, ed.), 195-231. Island Press, Washington,
D.C.
161. Whitlock, C., Millspaugh, S.H. 2001. A paleoecologic perspective on past plant migrations in
Yellowstone and its relevance for the invasion of exotic species. Western North American
Naturalist 61, 316-327.
162. Whitlock, C., Anderson, R.S. 2003. Fire history reconstructions based on sediment records
from lakes and wetlands. Pp. 3-31. In Fire and Climatic Change in Temperate Ecosystems of
the western Americas (T.T. Veblen, W.L. Baker, G. Montenegro, T.W. Swetnam, eds.)
Springer, New York.
163. Marlon, J.R. 2003. A meta-analysis of charcoal-based fire history records from the
northwestern U.S. M.S. thesis, Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene.
164. Blackhall, M., Raffaele, E., Veblen, T.T. 2008 Cattle affect early post-fire regeneration in a
Nothofagus dombeyi-Austrocedrus chilensis mixed forest in northern Patagonia. Biological
Conservation 141, 2251-62.
165. Gowda, J., Raffaele, E. 2004. Spine production is induced by fire: A natural experiment with
three Berberis species. Acta Oecologica 26, 239 24.5
166. Kitzberger, T., Raffaele, E., Veblen, T. 2005a Variable community responses to herbivory in
fire-altered landscapes of northern Patagonia, Argentina. African Journal of Range and
Forage Science 22, 85-91.
167. Kitzberger, T., Raffaele, E., Heinemann, K., Mazzarino, M.J. 2005b. Effects of fire severity in a
north Patagonian subalpine forest. Journal of Vegetation Science 16, 5 12.
168. Kitzberger, T, Chaneton, E.J., Caccia, F. 2007. Short term indirect effects of prey swamping:
differential seed predation during a bamboo masting event. Ecology 88, 2541-2554.
169. Paritsis, J., Raffaele, E. Veblen, T.T. 2006. Fire effects on plant reproductive phenology in a
shrubland community in northwestern Patagonia, Argentina. New Zeal. J. Ecology 30:38795.
170. Raffaele, E., Kitzberger, T., Veblen, T.T. 2007. Interactive effects of introduced herbivores
and post-flowering die-off of bamboos in Patagonian Nothofagus forests. Journal of
Vegetation Science 18, 371-78.
171. Sasal, Y., Raffaele, E., Farji Brener, A.G. Early post-fire succession of ground dwelling beetle
assemblages (Coleoptera) in three habitats types in NW Patagonia, Argentina. Journal of
Insect Science, In Press.
172. Suarez, M.L., Ghermandi, L., Kitzberger, T. 2004. Factors predisposing episodic droughtinduced tree mortality in Nothofagus: site, climatic sensitivity and growth trends. Journal of
Ecology 92, 954-966.
173. Suarez, M.L., Kitzberger, T. 2008. Recruitment patterns following a severe drought: longterm compositional shifts in Patagonian forests. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 38,
3002-3010.
10
174. Tercero-Bucardo, N, Kitzberger, T., Veblen, T.T., Raffaele, E. 2007. A field experiment on
climatic and herbivore impacts on post-fire tree regeneration in north-western Patagonia.
Journal of Ecology 95, 771-779.
175. Veblen, T.T. 2003. Historic range of variability of mountain forest ecosystems: concepts and
applications. Forest Chronicle 79, 223-226.
176. Veblen, T.T., Kitzberger, T., Raffaele, E., Mermoz, M., González, M.E., Sibold, J.S., Holz, A.
2008. The historical range of variability of fires in the Andean-Patagonian Nothofagus forest
region. International Journal of Wildland Fire 17, 724-741.
177. Veblen, T.T., Kitzberger, T., Raffaele, E., Lorenz, D.C. 2003. Fire history and vegetation
change in northern Patagonia, Argentina. Pages 259 289 in: T.T. Veblen, W.L. Baker, G.
Montenegro T.W. Swetnam (eds). Fire Regimes and Climatic Change in Temperate
Ecosystems of the Western Americas. Springer Verlag.
178. Kitzberger, T., Veblen, T.T. 2003. Influences of climate on fire in northern Patagonia,
Argentina. Pp. 290-315 In Fire Regimes and Climatic Change in Temperate Ecosystems of
the Western Americas (T.T. Veblen, W.L. Baker, G. Montenegro, T.W. Swetnam, eds.).
Springer Verlag.
179. Kitzberger, T. 2003. Regímenes de fuego en el gradiente bosque estepa del noroeste de
Patagonia: variacion espacial y tendencias temporales, Pp. 79 92. In Fuego en los
ecosistemas argentinos (C.R. Kunst, S. Bravo, J.L. Panigatti, eds.). ElInstitutoNacionalde
TecnologíaAgropecuaria.
11