CANADA: OUTLOOK FOR PRINCIPAL FIELD CROPS

CANADA: OUTLOOK FOR PRINCIPAL FIELD CROPS
October 17, 2014
Market Analysis Group/Grains and Oilseeds Division
Sector Development and Analysis Directorate/Market and Industry Services Branch
Director: Steve Lavergne
Deputy Director: Fred Oleson
This report provides an update of AAFC’s September outlook report for the 2014-15 crop year. The supply-side
estimates run-off Statistics Canada’s October 3 report on area, yield and production, which was based on a survey
of farmers, conducted during the early part of September.
Due to a return to relatively normal yields, the 2014 crop is dramatically smaller than the record harvest which
occurred in 2013. Average yields across all crops in 2014 are expected to average about 18% lower than last year
when the weather during the growing season and harvest was unusually good. Due to the decline in yields, total
crop production in Canada is forecast to decrease by 22% to 76.1 Mt. Although a significant decrease in production
is estimated, it must be noted that production is still about 3% above the five-year (2008-12) average of 73.8 Mt.
Despite high carry-in stocks, supply and carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease significantly.
The production of Grains and Oilseeds (G&O) in Canada is estimated at 70 Mt versus 90 Mt in 2013. Supply is
expected to decrease by about 10% despite high carry-in stocks. Exports and domestic use are forecast to decrease
slightly due to lower supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to be about half of last year’s level. The production of
Pulses and Special Crops (P&SC) in Canada is estimated to decrease by 12% to 6.1 Mt as significantly lower yields
more-than offset higher area seeded. However, supply is expected to decrease by 10% due to high carry-in stocks.
Total domestic use is forecast to decrease significantly due to lower production of peas and lentils. Exports are
forecast to be similar to last year. The quality of the crop in western Canada will be a major concern for 2014 due
to excess rain in late August and early September and the lateness of the harvest.
In general, abundant world grain supplies are expected to continue to pressure world prices, but a weak Canadian
dollar, which is anticipated to remain at a discount of about 10% to the US dollar, is expected to provide some
support to prices in Canada. In general grain prices are expected to decrease slightly from the 2013-14 level but
durum prices are expected to be very strong due to strong demand and relatively low global supply.
Canada: Principal Field Crops Supply and Disposition
Total
Area
Area
Total
Domestic
Carry-out
Seeded
Harvested Yield Production
Imports
Supply
Exports
Use
Stocks
-------- thousand hectares -------t/ha
-------------------------------------- thousand metric tonnes -------------------------------------Total Grains And Oilseeds
2012-2013
26,455
25,694
2.76
71,040
1,018
82,455
36,935
36,570
8,951
2013-2014
26,847
26,115
3.46
90,293
1,001
100,245
43,421
39,750
17,074
2014-2015f
25,741
24,350
2.87
69,959
1,773
88,806
41,810
38,601
8,395
Total Pulse And Special Crops
2012-2013
3,047
2,990
1.90
5,677
141
7,066
4,954
1,472
640
2013-2014
2,844
2,816
2.44
6,880
141
7,660
5,237
1,806
628
2014-2015f
3,418
3,186
1.92
6,110
118
6,856
5,105
1,296
455
All Principal Field Crops
2012-2013
29,502
28,684
2.67
76,716
1,160
89,521
41,889
38,042
9,591
2013-2014
29,690
28,930
3.36
97,173
1,141
107,905
48,659
41,556
17,702
2014-2015f
29,159
27,536
2.76
76,068
1,891
95,662
46,915
39,897
8,850
Source: Statistics Canada, f: forecast by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
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ALL WHEAT
DURUM
For 2014-15, Canadian durum production is estimated
to decrease by 27% from 2013-14 to 4.76 Mt as a result
of a 4% lower seeded area, higher abandonment and a
22% decrease in average yields. Saskatchewan accounts
for 86% of the Canadian estimated production and
Alberta for 14%. Supply is estimated to decrease by
14% as higher carry-in stocks partly offset the fall in
production. Exports are forecast to decrease by 1% as
industry’s ability to respond to strong demand in export
markets will be limited by the lower Canadian supply.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 55% to a
low 0.8 Mt. Crop year average Canadian producer
prices for durum are forecast to increase from 2013-14
due to lower world and Canadian supply and lower
carry-out stocks, and the forecast for a weaker Canadian
dollar. Prices have increased since the end of July.
World durum production is forecast to decrease by 4 Mt
from 2013-14 to 33.7 Mt, the lowest since 2001-02,
primarily due to lower production for Canada. Supply is
forecast to decrease by 3.3 Mt to 41 Mt as the lower
production is partly offset by higher carry-in stocks.
Use is expected to fall by 0.8 Mt, mostly in the feed
market. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 2.5 Mt
to 4.8 Mt, the lowest since 1999-2000. US durum
production is estimated to fall by 2% to 1.554 Mt due to
lower yields.
WHEAT (excluding durum)
For 2014-15, Canadian wheat production is estimated to
decrease by 27% from 2013-14 to 22.7 Mt due to 8%
lower seeded area, higher abandonment and a 17%
decline in average yields. Canadian winter wheat
production is estimated to fall by 26% to 2.8 Mt, with a
29% decrease for eastern Canada and a 22% decline for
western Canada. Spring wheat production is estimated
to fall by 27% to 19.9 Mt, with a 28% decrease for
Saskatchewan, 25% for Alberta and 32% for Manitoba.
Spring wheat production is estimated to fall only
marginally for British Columbia and rise by 15% for
eastern Canada. Saskatchewan accounts for 41% of the
total wheat production, Alberta for 35%, Manitoba for
15%, Ontario for 7.5% and other provinces for 1.5%.
Statistics Canada did not provide production estimates
for classes of spring wheat, but based on an analysis of
the area seeded by class and provincial yield estimates,
the decreases in production were as follows: 27% for
hard red spring wheat to 16.3 Mt, 8% for Canada
Prairie Spring wheat to 1.77 Mt, 42% for soft white
spring wheat to 1.28 Mt, 18% for general purpose
wheat to 0.37 Mt and 11% for extra strong wheat to
0.2 Mt.
Winter wheat production, mostly hard red winter and
soft red winter with some soft white winter, is estimated
to account for 12% of the total wheat production. The
production of hard red spring wheat is expected to
account for 72% of the total wheat production, similar
to 2013-14, Canada Prairie Spring for 8%, soft white
spring for 5.5%, general purpose for 1.5% and extra
strong for 1%.
Supply is estimated to decrease by 12%, as lower
production is partly offset by higher carry-in stocks.
Domestic use is expected to fall by 4% due to lower
feed use resulting from the lower supply. Exports are
forecast to increase only slightly from 2013-14 to
18.5 Mt as growing demand in the world food market is
expected to be mostly offset by the lower Canadian
supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 50% to a
low 4 Mt.
Average crop year Canadian producer prices for higher
quality milling wheat are forecast to be the same as for
2013-14. Support from lower supply in the US and
Canada, and the forecast for a weaker Canadian dollar,
is expected to be offset by the record world supply.
Price premiums for protein are expected to be higher
than for 2013-14 due to lower supply of high protein
wheat. Prices for high quality milling wheat have
increased since the end of July. However, crop year
average producer prices of lower quality milling wheat
and feed wheat are expected to be lower than for 201314 because of the record world wheat supply and
because of lower corn prices, respectively.
World all wheat (including durum) production is
forecast to increase by 6 Mt to a new record of 721 Mt.
Supply is forecast to rise by 17 Mt to 907 Mt, as higher
carry-in stocks compound the increase in production.
Total use is forecast to rise by 10 Mt to 714 Mt. Carryout stocks are forecast to increase by 7 Mt to 193 Mt.
US wheat production is estimated to decrease by 2.7 Mt
to 55.4 Mt, as a 3% higher harvested area is more than
offset by lower yields due to drought in the southern
plains. Production is estimated to fall for hard red
winter, soft red winter and white wheat, but increase by
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14% for hard red spring wheat. Domestic use is
expected to fall because of lower feed use. Exports are
forecast to decrease due to lower supply and more
competition in world markets. Carry-out stocks are
forecast to increase by 1.8 Mt to 17.8 Mt.
Stan Skrypetz: Wheat Analyst
stan.skrypetz@agr.gc.ca
COARSE GRAINS
BARLEY
For 2014-15, area seeded and harvested decreased to a
record low level from 2013-14 mainly due to higher
prices for alternative crops. Production is estimated to
decrease 30% to 7.1 million tonnes (Mt), a record low,
due to lower area and yields. Although a near doubling
of carry-in stocks will help cushion the production
decline, total supply decreases by 20% to near record
low levels. Total domestic use is forecast to fall by 8%
due mainly to a decrease in livestock feeding on the
prairies and softer industrial use. Total exports are
forecast to decrease by 16% due to the lower total
supply, a lower than average malt barley selection rate
and softer world barley trade. Carryout stocks are
forecast to decrease to a record low level. Despite the
tight stock situation, domestic feed barley prices are
forecast to decrease from 2013-14 due to the overall
decline in world coarse grain prices.
Barley harvest progress remains behind average across
the prairies as late seeding and wet conditions had
slowed crop development and harvest operations. As in
the US barley belt, which runs across the northern US
states, barley on the prairies was subject to wet
conditions from late August into September. These less
than favourable conditions produced sprouting, mildew
and staining problems in the barley and this will limit
the amount of new crop malt barley available for 201415. In 2013-14, malt barley quality and selection rates
were the best in many years so there is the potential for
higher than average carryover of malt barley stocks.
Malt barley prices will enjoy a stronger than average
premium over feed barley values due the limited
supplies.
World barley production is expected to decrease by
4.54% as below average crops in Argentina, Australia,
Canada and the US more than offset good crops in the
EU, Russia and Ukraine. Although carry-in stocks are
abundant, world barley feed and industrial use and
overall trade are forecast to decrease. As a result,
carry-out stocks are expected to increase by 3% and
remain above the previous three-year average. The
strong supply of world corn will pressure feed barley
prices around the world. The world malt barley price
premium has rebounded to values not seen since 201011 after posting slow but steady gains over the last two
crop years.
CORN
For 2014-15, seeded area and harvested area are
estimated to decrease by 15% and 17%, respectively,
both of which are below the previous five-year average.
Production is estimated to decrease by 20% from 201314 due to the smaller area and a return to near-average
yields. Imports are forecast to increase dramatically to
1.2 Mt due to the decline in domestic supply. The carryin stocks are essentially unchanged from the previous
year but the reduced production will cause total supply
to decrease by 12%. Due to the lower total supply, total
domestic use is forecast to decrease by 2% as feed
demand declines due to lower livestock numbers and
only trend gains in industrial use. Exports are forecast
to decrease significantly from the record highs in 201314 due to lower Canadian supply and large crops in the
worlds other major corn exporting countries. As well,
carryout stocks are forecast to decrease significantly
and fall to a low of 0.8 Mt or about half the previous
ten-year average. The Chatham in-store elevator price
is forecast to decrease with the potentially large North
American and world corn crop on the way in 2014.
The current and forecasted Canadian dollar exchange
rate for the 2014-15 crop year will support Canadian
corn prices.
Corn yields are estimated to be slightly above the
previous five-year average. Despite the less than ideal
weather throughout the growing season in Eastern
Canada, they were able to achieve slightly higher yields
than the previous average. For Manitoba and Alberta,
the yields are slightly below average after a slow start
last spring and a general lack of heat units. The major
decline in production is due to lower area as US corn
prices declined throughout last year.
The USDA released their September Grain Stocks
report and they were in line with the market
expectations of higher 2013-14 US corn stocks as of
September 1. The main contributor to the higher ending
stocks estimate was the 29% increase in production for
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2013. Even with US total use increasing by over 22%,
the market was not able to absorb all of that corn. For
2014-15, despite slow crop development and harvest
progress the US will more than likely produce a new
corn yield and production record and see their ending
stocks increase to over two billion bushels or nearly
51 million tonnes. The result has been US corn prices
declining by 50% from two years ago. US corn is the
world and North American price leader and has caused
the entire coarse grain price complex to decline.
Without a major production problem in one or more of
the large producing countries next crop year coarse
grain prices will remain depressed for the next couple
of years.
OATS
For 2014-15, seeded area is estimated to have
decreased by 15% to a record low and the near record
low harvested area is estimated to decrease 20% from
2013-14. Production is estimated to decrease 31% to
2.7 Mt due to the decrease in area and a return to just
slightly above average yields. However, due to high
level of carry-in stocks, the lower production will cause
total supply to decrease by 16% and remain below the
previous five-year average. Total domestic use is
forecast to decrease 14% or to near record low levels
mainly due to a drop in feed use related to larger
supplies of feed quality cereal grains and North
American corn supplies. Exports are forecast to
decrease 5% due to the tight supply, a USDA forecast
for higher US oat production and quality issues
affecting the amount of milling quality oats that will be
available on the prairies. Carryout stocks are forecast to
decrease sharply 0.6 Mt. and remain below the previous
five-year average. Despite tight North American oat
supplies, the CBOT nearby futures value is forecast to
decline with the potentially record North American and
world corn crop on the way in 2014. The current and
forecasted Canadian dollar exchange rate for the 201415 crop year will be price supportive for Canadian oat
prices.
The production of oats is estimated to decrease by 31%
due to below yields and low levels of seeded and
harvested areas. Oat harvest progress on the Prairies
remains behind average as late seeding and wet
conditions had slowed crop development and harvest
operations. Oats on the prairies and the Northern US
states were subject to wet conditions from August and
into September. These less than favourable conditions
produced sprouting problems in the oats and this will
limit the supply of milling quality oats for 2014-15.
In the USDA September Grain Stocks report, US oat
stocks were over 15% than at the same time last year,
with off-farm or commercial stocks being over 24%
larger. Higher US oat production in 2014-15 and good
levels of Canadian oat exports into the US milling
market were the contributors. In the September USDA
Small Grains Summary, 2014 US oats achieved higher
harvested area and yield than in 2013. This represents
the fourth lowest production on record and third lowest
area harvested for grain on record. Total production is
about 10% less than earlier USDA projections and as
with the Canadian Prairies; there are quality concerns
for milling type oats.
RYE
For 2014-15, seeded area is estimated to decrease by
2% from 2013-14 and harvested area is estimated to
decrease by 16% both are new record lows. Production
is estimate to decrease by 26% to near record lows due
to the smaller area combined with below average yields.
Despite slightly higher carry-in stocks, total supply is
forecast to decrease by 20% due to the sharp drop in
production and fall to the second lowest level on record.
Total domestic usage is forecast to decrease by 16% to
a new record level as the smaller total supply will limit
feed and industrial use. Exports are forecast to decrease
by 8% due to the very tight supply and remain well
below the previous five-year average. Carryout is
forecast to decrease to record low levels, as stocks
continue to be drawn down. Price prospects for 2014-15
remain good, as the very tight supply situation will put
a floor under rye despite the general price decline
across the coarse grain complex. Demand continues to
be very good for rye going into the spirits industry.
With record low area and below average yields,
production is less than half of what it was two year ago
and is only half of the previous ten-year average. In the
last five years, just one fall has been favourable for the
planting of rye and the late harvest of 2014 will again
limit the amount of area that could have been seeded to
rye. The small crop combined with quality issues will
see high-grade rye command strong premiums this crop
year.
The USDA Small Grains Summary for 2014 estimated
US rye production to be 6% lower than in 2013-14,
mainly due to an overall decrease in seeded area. The
two largest rye states, Georgia and Oklahoma, saw their
combined production decline by over 60%. Seeded and
harvested area declines in Georgia and a very poor,
drought affected crop in Oklahoma. With smaller rye
crops in both Canada and the US, North American
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production is forecasted to be 8% lower than in 2013
continuing the tight supply situation. In September,
Ontario based Bioindustrial Innovation Canada received
$7 million dollars from the federal government for the
development of environmentally friendly bio products.
The goal is to bridge the gap between research and
market-ready products by connecting technology
development projects from across Canada. Part of the
research includes developing new varieties of rye,
triticale and wheat used to produce high-value
biochemical and bioenergy products.
John Pauch: Coarse Grains Analyst
John.Pauch@agr.gc.ca
OILSEEDS
CANOLA
For 2014-15, Canadian canola production is estimated
to fall by 22% from 2013-14 to 14.1 Mt as a marginal
rise in seeded area is offset by sharply higher
abandonment and a 19% drop in average yields.
Saskatchewan accounts for 49% of expected canola
production while Alberta and Manitoba account for
35% and 15%, respectively. Supply is estimated to
decrease by 11% as lower production more-than offsets
the major increase in carry-in stocks. Exports are
forecast to decline by 8% on comparatively tight
domestic supplies and competition from record high
world supplies of oilseeds and vegetable oils. Domestic
crush of canola is forecast to increase by 2% on support
from a strong early season crush pace, relatively
attractive crush margins and adequate canola supplies.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 62%, to 0.9
Mt for a relatively tight stocks-to-use ratio of 6%. The
price of canola is forecast down by almost 11%, to a
range of $430-470/t, under pressure from lower world
soyoil and palmoil prices and burdensome world
oilseed supplies with some offsetting support provided
by a weaker Canadian dollar.
World canola production is forecast at 70.7 Mt, down
slightly from the record of 71.1 Mt as the decrease in
Canadian production was mostly offset by increased
output in China, India and the European Union. World
supplies of canola-rapeseed are forecast to rise by about
3% as the increase in carry-in stocks more than offsets
the slight drop in production. World trade is forecast to
decline on a drop in Canadian shipments while China,
Japan and the European Union remain the major
importers of canola-rapeseed. World crushing of
canola-rapeseed is forecast to rise on increased
European, Canadian and Indian processing which more
than offset a drop in Chinese crush. World carry-out
stocks are forecast to rise by 9% to a record high 6.8 M
on an increase in European stocks.
FLAXSEED (excluding solin)
For 2014-15, production is estimated to increase by
27% to the highest level since 2006-07 on a rise in
seeded area which more than offsets higher
abandonment and lower yields. By province,
Saskatchewan accounts for 82% of domestic
production, followed by Alberta at 12% and Manitoba
at 6%. Supply is up by 27% as higher carry-in stocks
supplement the rise in production. Exports are forecast
to rise by 30% on anticipated stronger buying from
China and the European Union. Shipments to the
European Union are expected to be limited by
competition from increased supplies of Kazakhstan and
Russian linseed. Total domestic use of flaxseed is
forecast to rise by 9% while carry-out stocks rise by
25%. Flaxseed prices are forecast to fall to $470-510 a
tonne, and run a serious risk of falling significantly
given the burdensome world oilseed supplies.
Worldwide, linseed production is forecast at 2.6 Mt, up
from the 2.2 Mt in 2013-14. Canada is the world’s
largest producer of flaxseed-linseed followed by
Kazakhstan at 0.4 Mt, Russia at 0.32 Mt and China at
0.31. World trade is forecast at 1.4 Mt with Canada
accounting for 57% of the total. World crush is forecast
at 2.1 Mt, up from 1.9 Mt in 2012-13 on increased
processing in the EU-28, China and the US. World
carry-out of flaxseed-linseed is forecast at slightly
under 0.4 Mt for 2014-15.
SOYBEANS
For 2014-15, production is estimated to increase by
11%, setting a new record, as an increase in planted
area offsets a drop in yields. By province, Ontario is the
largest soybean growing province, accounting for 60%
of production, followed by Manitoba at 18%, Quebec
17%, Saskatchewan 3% and a minor level in the
Maritimes. Supplies of soybeans are forecast to rise by
11% on the sharp rise in production, steady carry-in
stocks and slightly higher imports. Domestic crush is
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forecast to rise by about 4% while exports are up over
20% to 4.2 Mt. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise
slightly while prices drop sharply, down 30% to $350390/t, under pressure from burdensome world supplies.
The weaker Canadian dollar is expected to provide
some offsetting support.
For 2014-15, world supplies of soybeans are expected
to be burdensome following an expected record US
harvest of 106 Mt in combination with expected record
Brazil and Argentine production of 94 Mt and 55 Mt,
respectively. World crushing of soybeans is forecast to
rise by 5% to a record 252 Mt on increased processing
in China, Argentina and assorted other countries. World
trade in soybeans is forecast at a record 115 Mt, up
slightly from the 113 Mt shipped in 2013-14, primarily
increased Chinese imports. Carry-out stocks are
forecast to rise by 35% to a record 90 Mt and these
large stocks are expected to pressure world soybean
prices until at least the end of 2015-16, assuming steady
planted area and trend yields.
Chris Beckman: Oilseed Analyst
Chris.Beckman@agr.gc.ca
PULSES AND SPECIAL CROPS
DRY PEAS
For 2014-15, production is estimated to decrease by
11% to 3.5 Mt, the third largest dry pea crop. The
higher harvested area has been offset with high
abandonment and lower yields, particularly in
Saskatchewan. Saskatchewan is expected to account for
2.0 Mt of the dry pea production, Alberta over 1.4 Mt,
with the remainder of the production in Manitoba and
British Columbia. Supply is expected to decrease but
exports are forecast to increase to 2.8 Mt, with India,
China and Bangladesh continuing to be Canada’s top
three markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall due
to higher exports but lower domestic use. The average
price is expected to fall from 2013-14.
During the month of September, Saskatchewan green
pea farmgate prices fell about C$20/t while yellow pea
farmgate prices were unchanged. This was largely
because of concerns about the quality of the Canadian
dry pea crop and an expectation that there will be an
increase in Canadian green pea production for 2014-15.
Green dry peas prices are expected to maintain a
premium of C$75/t over yellow dry peas, which are
above the historical average, but well below the
C$165/t premium green peas had over yellow peas last
year.
In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2014-15 is
forecast by the USDA to rise by 8% from 2013-14. This
is largely due to an expected rise in area in Montana
and North Dakota. Assuming normal yields and
abandonment, US dry pea production is forecast by
AAFC to increase by 8% to 0.78 Mt. The US has been
successful in exporting small amounts of dry peas to
common Canadian exports markets in China and India
and it is expected the US will continue to its expand its
market share in 2014-15.
LENTILS
For 2014-15, production is estimated to fall by 19% to
below 1.8 Mt. This is largely due to estimates for lower
yields and high abandonment, which has more than
offset higher harvested area. Large green production is
forecast to fall from last year to over 0.4 Mt, while red
lentil production is expected to be unchanged at 1.2 Mt.
Production of the other remaining lentil types is
expected to fall to just over 0.1 Mt.
Supply is expected to fall by 22% due to lower carry-in
stocks and production. Exports are expected to be
limited to 1.6 Mt, but India, the EU-27 and Turkey are
expected to remain the top three export markets.
Domestic use is forecast to fall, but remain above
historical levels, due to expectations of a below average
grade distribution. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall
sharply for the third consecutive year. The overall
average price is forecast to be higher than 2013-14 due
to tight carry-out stocks. Large green lentil prices are
forecast to maintain a premium over red lentil prices,
compared to a C$30/t discount to red types in 2013-14.
In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2014-15 is
forecast by the USDA at 0.3 mln acres, down 12% from
2012-13 due to lower area seeded in Montana.
Assuming normal yields and abandonment, 2014-15 US
lentil production is therefore forecast by AAFC to fall
below 0.2 Mt, down 19% from 2013-14. The main US
export markets for lentils are expected to continue to be
India and the EU-27.
DRY BEANS
For 2013-14, production is estimated to rise by 26% to
0.29 Mt, consisting of 98 kt of white pea bean types and
194 kt of colored bean types. Production in Ontario is
expected to rise sharply mostly due to a higher in area
for both bean types. In Manitoba, production is
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estimated to have risen for white bean types. This is
forecast to be partly offset by lower production for
colored types when compared to 2013-14.
Supply is forecast to increase by only 8%, due to tight
carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to decrease
marginally due to expectations for lower exports to the
US. The US and the EU-27 are forecast to remain the
main markets for Canadian dry beans, with expectations
that Canada will continue to expand its market share in
the Middle East and Africa. Carry-out stocks are also
expected to rise. The average Canadian dry bean price
is forecast to decrease due to higher supply in North
America.
In the US, area seeded to dry beans is forecast by the
USDA to rise by 26% to 1.5 mln acres, largely due to
higher area seeded in North Dakota. US total dry bean
production (excluding chickpeas) is forecast by the
USDA at 1.1 Mt, up 20% from 2013-14. US export
markets are expected to continue to be the EU-27,
Mexico and Canada.
CHICKPEAS
For 2014-15, production is estimated to decrease by
20% to 141 kt, largely due to lower yields. Production
for desi types is expected to fall marginally while kabuli
chickpea production is also expected to fall sharply
compared to 2013-14. However, supply is forecast to
rise by 16% from last year due to the near record carryin stocks. Exports are forecast to rise from 2013-14,
with the EU-27, the US, the Middle East and the Indian
subcontinent expected to remain the main markets for
Canadian chickpeas. Carry-out stocks are expected to
fall but remain burdensome. The average price is
forecast to decline, for the third consecutive year,
despite improved world demand.
US chickpea area seeded is estimated by the USDA at a
record 0.22 mln acres, up 4% from 2013-14. This is
largely due to higher area seeded in the state of
Montana. Assuming normal yields and abandonment,
2013-14 US chickpea production is forecast by AAFC
at a record 0.16 Mt, slightly higher than 2014-15.
MUSTARD SEED
For 2014-15, production is estimated to increase by
15% to 179 kt as an increase in harvested area was
partly offset by lower yields and higher abandonment.
Production of all three major types of mustard, yellow,
brown and oriental are expected to rise. However,
supply is forecast to fall marginally, due to tight carryin stocks. Exports are expected to be similar to last year
at 135 kt and carry-out stocks are forecast to remain
unchanged. The US and the EU-27 are expected to
remain the main export markets for Canadian mustard
seed. The average price is forecast to be lower than
2013-14 due to the ample world supply.
CANARY SEED
For 2014-15, production is estimated to rise by 6% to
139 kt, due to sharply higher harvested area. This was
partly offset by lower yields and higher abandonment.
However, supply is forecast to fall as higher production
is more than offset by tight carry-in stocks.
Exports are expected to fall due to a rationing of
domestic supply. The EU-27 and Mexico are forecast to
remain the main export markets, followed by South
America and the US. Carry-out stocks are expected to
remain tight. The average price is forecast to increase
from the 2013-14 level due to limited supply and solid
world demand.
SUNFLOWER SEED
For 2014-15, production is estimated to rise sharply to
75 kt, due to higher estimated yields and harvested area.
Supply, however, is expected to rise by only 12% to
105 kt, compared to 2013-14, due to lower carry-in
stocks. Exports are forecast to be relatively unchanged
and carry-out stocks are forecast to rise sharply. The US
is expected to remain Canada’s main export market for
sunflower seed. The average price is forecast to rise
from 2013-14 as higher prices for confectionery
sunflower seed more than offset lower prices for oilseed
types.
Area seeded to sunflower in the US is estimated by the
USDA at 1.7 mln acres, up 8% from 2013-14 and
largely due to higher area in North Dakota. The area
seeded to oil type varieties increased marginally to 1.34
mln acres and the area seeded to confectionery type
varieties rose sharply to 0.37 mln acres. Assuming
normal yields and abandonment, 2014-15 US sunflower
seed production is forecast by AAFC to increase by
26% to 1.16 Mt.
The global supply of sunflower seed is estimated by the
USDA at a near record of 40.5 Mt. This is 6% lower
than last year due to decreased area and yields in
Russia, Ukraine and the EU-27. As a result, world
domestic use is expected to fall marginally but world
exports are forecast to rise by 6%. World carry-out
stocks are expected to fall by 22% to a more
comfortable level of 2.6 Mt, and may provide some
support for world sunflower seed prices.
Bobby Morgan: Pulse and Special Crop Analyst
Bobby.Morgan@agr.gc.ca
Page 7 of 7
CANADA: GRAINS AND OILSEEDS SUPPLY AND DISPOSITION
October 17, 2014
Food &
Feed,
Total
Grain and Crop
Area
Area
Total
Industrial Waste & Domestic Carry-out Average
Year (a)
Seeded Harvested Yield Production Imports (b) Supply Exports (c) Use (d)
Dockage
Use (e)
Stocks
Price (g)
---------- thousand ha --------------------------------------------------------------------t/ha
thousand metric tonnes -----------------------------------------------------------$/t
Durum
2012-2013
1,894
1,878
2.46
4,627
36
6,149
4,245
232
325
751
1,152
290
2013-2014
2,009
1,997
3.26
6,505
5
7,662
5,073
244
344
776
1,813
220
2014-2015f
1,932
1,868
2.55
4,756
5
6,574
4,700
250
428
874
1,000
255-285
Wheat Except Durum
2012-2013
7,736
7,619
2.96
22,579
38
27,063
15,333
3,224
3,724
7,830
3,900
285
2013-2014
8,616
8,444
3.67
31,025
50
34,975
18,401
3,341
4,442
8,592
7,982
205
2014-2015f
7,886
7,478
3.04
22,731
50
30,763
18,500
3,350
4,087
8,263
4,000
190-220
All Wheat
2012-2013
9,630
9,497
2.86
27,205
74
33,211
19,578
3,456
4,049
8,581
5,052
2013-2014
10,626
10,441
3.59
37,530
55
42,637
23,474
3,586
4,786
9,368
9,795
2014-2015f
9,818
9,346
2.94
27,486
55
37,337
23,200
3,600
4,515
9,137
5,000
Barley
2012-2013
2,997
2,751
2.91
8,012
19
9,227
2,184
127
5,683
6,059
983
279
2013-2014
2,866
2,652
3.86
10,237
9
11,229
2,390
183
6,522
6,915
1,924
188
2014-2015f
2,408
2,134
3.34
7,120
18
9,062
2,000
150
6,002
6,362
700
150-180
Corn
2012-2013
1,434
1,418
9.21
13,060
507
14,933
1,728
5,315
6,325
11,655
1,549
257
2013-2014
1,493
1,480
9.59
14,194
475
16,218
1,918
5,165
7,528
12,706
1,594
169
2014-2015f
1,262
1,234
9.23
11,397
1,200
14,191
1,000
5,200
7,175
12,391
800
135-165
Oats
2012-2013
1,165
985
2.86
2,812
18
3,635
2,134
84
804
995
506
263
2013-2014
1,284
1,113
3.51
3,906
29
4,441
2,209
85
1,023
1,201
1,031
281
2014-2015f
1,091
885
3.04
2,686
20
3,737
2,100
84
852
1,037
600
215-245
Rye
2012-2013
140
123
2.73
337
0
362
193
46
68
123
46
155
2013-2014
109
87
2.57
223
0
269
120
40
52
100
49
170
2014-2015f
107
73
2.27
165
0
215
110
36
40
85
20
165-195
Mixed Grains
2012-2013
101
58
2.93
170
0
170
0
0
170
170
0
2013-2014
105
54
2.87
156
0
156
0
0
156
156
0
2014-2015f
93
47
3.00
142
0
142
0
0
142
142
0
Total Coarse Grains
2012-2013
5,836
5,334
4.57
24,391
545
28,325
6,239
5,571
13,050
19,002
3,085
2013-2014
5,857
5,386
5.33
28,715
513
32,313
6,637
5,473
15,281
21,078
4,598
2014-2015f
4,961
4,373
4.92
21,510
1,238
27,346
5,210
5,470
14,210
20,016
2,120
Canola
2012-2013
8,912
8,799
1.58
13,869
128
14,704
7,305
6,717
35
6,810
588
650
2013-2014
8,070
8,009
2.24
17,966
66
18,620
9,094
6,979
124
7,162
2,363
503
2014-2015f
8,095
7,817
1.80
14,080
125
16,568
8,400
7,100
117
7,268
900
430-470
Flaxseed
2012-2013
397
384
1.27
489
15
640
481
n/a
n/a
89
71
580
2013-2014
425
418
1.73
724
14
809
616
n/a
n/a
93
100
510
2014-2015f
635
607
1.52
922
5
1,027
800
n/a
n/a
102
125
470-510
Soybeans
2012-2013
1,680
1,679
3.03
5,086
258
5,575
3,332
1,541
351
2,088
156
532
2013-2014
1,869
1,860
2.88
5,359
353
5,867
3,600
1,527
292
2,049
218
530
2014-2015f
2,231
2,208
2.70
5,961
350
6,528
4,200
1,600
278
2,078
250
350-390
Total Oilseeds
2012-2013
10,989
10,863
1.79
19,444
400
20,919
11,118
8,258
385
8,987
814
2013-2014
10,364
10,287
2.34
24,049
432
25,295
13,310
8,506
416
9,305
2,681
2014-2015f
10,961
10,632
1.97
20,962
480
24,123
13,400
8,700
395
9,448
1,275
Total Grains and Oilseeds
2012-2013
26,455
25,694
2.76
71,040
1,018
82,455
36,935
17,284
17,484
36,570
8,951
2013-2014
26,847
26,115
3.46
90,293
1,001
100,245
43,421
17,565
20,483
39,750
17,074
2014-2015f
25,741
24,350
2.87
69,959
1,773
88,806
41,810
17,770
19,120
38,601
8,395
(a) Crop year is August-July, except corn and soybeans, for which the crop year is September-August.
(b) Imports exclude products.
(c) Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
(d) Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes food and
industrial use for flaxseed due to data confidentiality.
(e) Total Domestic Use = Food and Industrial Use + Feed Waste & Dockage + Seed Use + Loss in Handling
(g) Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan
producer spot prices and are not comparable to CWB pool returns for previous years. Barley (No. 1 feed, cash, I/S Lethbridge), Corn (No.2 CE, cash,
I/S Chatham), Oats (US No. 2 Heavy, CBOT nearby futures); Rye (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Canola (No. 1 Canada, cash, Track
Vancouver); Flaxseed (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Soybeans (No. 2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham).
f: forecast, by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Source: Statistics Canada
CANADA: PULSES AND SPECIAL CROPS SUPPLY AND DISPOSITION
October 17, 2014
Total
Grain and Crop
Area
Area
Total
Domestic Carry-out Stocks-to- Average
Yield
Production Imports (b) Supply Exports (b) Use (c)
Year (a)
Seeded Harvested
Stocks
Use Ratio Price (d)
---------- thousand
-----------------------------------------------------------ha ---------- t/ha
thousand metric tonnes -----------------------------------------------------------%
$//t
Dry Peas
2012-2013
1,509
1,475
2.26
3,341
16
3,622
2,650
798
174
5
340
2013-2014
1,345
1,329
2.98
3,961
25
4,160
2,779
1,072
309
8
260
2014-2015f
1,589
1,488
2.37
3,529
15
3,853
2,800
828
225
6
230-260
Lentils
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015f
1,018
1,060
1,267
1,004
1,052
1,166
1.53
2.07
1.51
1,538
2,173
1,756
9
9
10
2,407
2,489
1,935
1,638
1,755
1,600
461
565
285
307
169
50
15
7
3
440
445
500-530
Dry Beans
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015f
127
100
140
125
100
136
2.26
2.32
2.14
281
232
292
79
70
60
365
332
357
297
304
300
38
23
27
30
5
30
9
2
9
835
995
820-850
Chickpeas
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015f
81
77
73
80
76
71
2.02
2.33
1.99
161
177
141
9
9
8
181
240
279
69
48
90
59
62
64
54
130
125
42
118
81
690
500
460-490
Mustard Seed
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015f
136
148
188
135
146
172
0.88
1.06
1.04
119
155
179
1
2
0
203
193
189
120
138
135
47
45
44
36
10
10
22
5
6
790
775
700-730
Canary Seed
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015f
136
85
121
132
85
115
1.14
1.54
1.20
150
131
139
0
0
0
167
153
139
137
164
130
8
N/A
4
22
N/A
5
15
N/A
4
585
500
510-540
41
28
41
40
28
38
2.19
1.89
1.95
87
52
75
27
25
25
121
94
105
44
49
50
60
40
45
17
5
10
16
6
11
635
645
655-685
Total Pulses and Special Crops (c)
2012-2013
3,047
2,990
2013-2014
2,844
2,816
2014-2015f
3,418
3,186
1.90
2.44
1.92
5,677
6,880
6,110
141
141
118
7,066
7,660
6,856
4,954
5,237
5,105
1,472
1,806
1,296
640
628
455
Sunflower Seed
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015f
(a) Crop year is August-July. Grains Include pulses (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed,
sunflower seed).
(b) Imports and exports exclude products.
(c) Total Domestic Use = Food and Industrial Use + Feed Waste & Dockage + Seed Use + Loss in Handling. Total domestic use is
calculated residually.
(d) Producer price, FOB plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
f: forecast, by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Source: Statistics Canada and industry consultations.