Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Macro Research 27. oktober 2014 Dagens fokus

Macro Research
27. oktober 2014
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken
Dagens fokus
 Dagens vigtigste nøgletal bliver nok det tyske Ifo industritillidsindeks.
Tysk Ifo stopper måske faldet
Konsensus venter uændret forventningsindeks og et lille fald i indekset for
den nuværende økonomiske situation. Ifo har normalt mindre udsving end
PMI, som jo overraskende steg i oktober, og det er en af grundene til at vi
er skeptiske over for om Ifo kan følge PMI op. Selv et uændret forventningsindeks vil være et markant skifte i forhold til de seneste måneder,
som har budt på store fald (se figur).
 ECB begyndte i sidste uge sine obligationsopkøb under det seneste
opkøbsprogram. ECB vil ugentligt udmelde, hvad og hvor meget, der er
købt, og det sker første gang i dag.
 Fra USA kommer opgørelsen af de verserende bolighandler i september, og her ventes en rimelig udramatisk udvikling med en stigning på
1,0% m/m, som dermed reverserer faldet i august. Dermed synes aktiviteten fortsat at befinde sig i et dødvande. Det er i overensstemmelse med
den fortsat afdæmpede aktivitet i antallet af realkreditansøgninger i forbindelse med boligkøb samt det seneste fald i NAHB-indekset oven på en
række uventede stigninger henover sommeren. På den anden side har vi
modtaget lidt opmuntrende tegn med de seneste fald i realkreditrenterne,
hvor det nok er for tidligt at vente en positiv effekt på handelsaktiviteten.
 Hovedbegivenheden i resten af ugen bliver nok rentemødet i Fed onsdag
aften, hvor Fed ventes at stoppe opkøbene under sit seneste opkøbsprogram. Dagen efter kommer første estimat for BNP-væksten i 3. kvartal for
USA. Fra euroområdet kommer ESI-barometret torsdag, og ledighed og
inflation fredag. Der er rentemøde i Sveriges Riksbanken tirsdag, hvor renten ventes nedsat. Torsdag kommer der danske ledighedstal og erhvervslivets konjunkturbarometre
Højdepunkter siden sidst
 Markederne: Amerikanske aktier og renter steg generelt i fredags, mens
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de europæiske faldt lidt. Nikkei er i plus her til morgen. EUR er styrket over
for USD.
Euroområdet: ECB offentliggjorde i går resultatet af sin ”Comprehensive
Assessment” baseret på en gennemgang af de 130 vigtigste banker i euroområdet. Gennemgangen er fordelt på en vurdering af bankernes aktivkvalitet samt en stresstest. 25 banker dumpede stresstesten, heraf flest
italienske banker inklusive Italiens tredjestørste bank Monte Paschi. Ingen
af de store banker i euroområdet faldt igennem. Den samlede underdækningen i forhold til kapitalkravene var 25 mia. euro ved udgangen af 2013,
men størstedelen af denne kapital er allerede blevet rejst gennem 2014,
og i øvrigt har de berørte banker op til ni måneder til at øge kapitaldækningen. Kun otte banker har ikke allerede lukket hullet eller har fremlagt
planer for, hvordan det skal gøres. Resultatet vil nok blive modtaget positivt på de finansielle markeder her til morgen. Det havde måske været
bedre, hvis endnu færre banker havde fejlet testen, men hvis meget få
banker var fejlet, ville testen måske være blevet anset som utroværdig
som følge af for lempelige kriterier.
USA: Salget af nye boliger steg en smule i september på linje med konsensusestimatet, men der var nedrevideringer af de foregående måneder.
Brasilien: Den siddende brasilianske præsident Dilma Rousseff vandt i
går anden runde af præsidentvalget og fik 52% af stemmerne. Det brasilianske aktiemarked står til at falde, når det åbner senere i dag, i skuffelse
over at den mere reform- og markedsvenlige udfordrer Aceio Neves ikke
vandt, selvom meningsmålingerne er gået Rousseuffs vej de seneste
uger.
Kina: BNP-væksten vil nok falde til 7,2% i fjerde kvartal ifølge Song Guoqing, som sidder i centralbankens rådgivende komite.
Storbritannien: Britisk BNP-vækst faldt til 0,7% q/q i 3. kvartal fra 0,9% i
2. kvartal på linje med konsensusestimatet.
De 25 mest stressede banker
 Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Italy
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Co-operative Central Bank, Cyprus
Eurobank Ergasias, Greece
Banca Carige, Italy
Hellenic Bank Public Company, Cyprus
National Bank of Greece, Greece
Permanent tsb, Ireland
Bank of Cyprus Public Company, Cyprus
Österreichische Volksbanken, Austria
Veneto Banca, Italy
Münchener Hypothekenbank, Germany
Banco Comercial Português, Portugal
Banca Popolare di Vicenza, Italy
AXA Bank Europe, Belgium
Credito Valtellinese, Italy
Banca Popolare Di Milano, Italy
Banca Popolare di Sondrio, Italy
Piraeus Bank, Greece
Nova Kreditna Banka Maribor, Slovenia
Banco Popolare - Società Cooperativa, Italy
Dexia NV, Belgium
Nova Ljubljanska banka d. d., Ljubljana, Slovenia
Banca Popolare Dell'Emilia, Italy
C.R.H. - Caisse de Refinancement de l’Habitat,
France
 Liberbank, S.A., Spain
For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 27. oktober 2014
Markedskommentarer
Aktier
Renter
Valuta
OMXC20 CAP (-0,53% / indeks 781,50) endte
i negativt territorium på ugens sidste handelsdag og fulgte dermed de europæiske aktiemarkeder sydpå efter en særdeles god uge
ellers. Den negative stemning primært drevet
af en lidt forstærket ebola-frygt i markedet
efter en læge i New York har fået konstateret
ebola efter sin hjemkomst fra Vestafrika.
De amerikanske statsrenter steg fredag sammen med aktiemarkederne. De tyske og
danske statsrenter fulgte ikke med op, blandt
andet fordi det blev lækket, at 25 banker ville
dumpe ECB’s stresstest. Det blev anset for et
højt tal. Da stresstesten (og vurderingen af
kvaliteten af bankernes aktiver) blev offentliggjort i går søndag, viste det sig dog, at der
ikke var nogen af de store europæiske banker
blandt de 25, og markederne vil nok åbne
med rentestigninger her til morgen. Der var
flest italienske banker blandt de 25, inklusive
Italiens tredjestørste bank Monte Paschi. Den
samlede underdækningen i forhold til kapitalkravene var 25 mia. euro ved udgangen af
2013, men størstedelen af denne kapital er
allerede blevet rejst gennem 2014, og i øvrigt
har de berørte banker op til ni måneder til at
øge kapitaldækningen. Kun otte banker har
ikke allerede lukket hullet eller har fremlagt
planer for, hvordan det skal gøres.
EUR er fortsat fredagens styrkelse over for
USD her til morgen. Det er nok især drevet af
det relativt positive udfald af ECB’s stresstest,
som blev offentliggjort i går søndag. Godt nok
var der 25 banker, hvis kapitaldækning var
utilstrækkelig ved udgangen i 2013. Men kun
otte banker har ikke allerede lukket hullet eller
har fremlagt planer for, hvordan det skal
gøres. Den samlede underdækningen i forhold til kapitalkravene var 25 mia. euro ved
udgangen af 2013, men størstedelen af denne
kapital er allerede blevet rejst gennem 2014.
Der var ikke nogen af de største europæiske
banker blandt de 25. Den største var italienske Monte Paschi.
I bunden af indekset endte Vestas (-3,50% /
kurs 190,50) på trods af, at selskabet modtog
den første kinesiske ordre efter mere end 1
års ordretørke i Kina. Derudover har EUlandene også indgået en omfattende aftale på
klima- og energiområdet, som løber frem mod
2030, hvilket dog heller ikke gav noget medvind til aktien.
I den anden ende af indekset endte Chr.
Hansen Holding (+2,88% / kurs 232,50) og
belønnes dermed fortsat for onsdagens bedre
end frygtet regnskab. Uden for C20-indekset
var Rockwool (+0,90% / kurs 840,00) i fokus
efter meddelelsen om, at selskabet skifter
deres mangeårige direktør Eelco van Heel ud
med svenske Jens Birgersson, som kommer
fra en stilling i ABB.
GBP styrkedes lidt over for både EUR og
USD fredag efter første offentliggørelse af
britisk BNP for 3. kvartal viste, at væksten kun
faldt lidt til fortsat solide 0,7% q/q.
BRL styrkedes markant over for USD fredag,
efter en af de sidste meningsmålinger inden
gårsdagens præsidentvalg viste, at udfordreren Aecio Neves måske alligevel havde en
chance for at vinde. Styrkelses vil dog nok
blive reverseret i dag, da Neves tabte og kun
fik 48% af stemmerne.
Dagens finansielle nøgletal
Aktier
Aktuelt
Valuta
%-Ændring
10-årige renter
Aktuelt
Ændring
OMXC20CAP
781.5
-0.53
USD/JPY
107.9
-0.090
Stoxx600
327.2
-0.33
EUR/USD
1.271
0.005
FTSE
6388.7
-0.47
USD/DKK
5.859
-0.025
S&P500
1964.6
0.71
CHF/DKK
6.171
0.000
Nasdaq
4483.7
0.69
GBP/DKK
9.435
-0.003
Hang Seng
23135.5
-0.72
SEK/DKK
0.811
0.000
Nikkei
15387.0
0.62
NOK/DKK
0.891
-0.004
Aktuelt
Råvarer
Ændring
Aktuelt
USA
2.28
0.03
CRB
Euroområdet
0.89
-0.01
Brent oil (1M fut)
Danmark
0.86
-0.01
Gold (spot)
Ændring
270.2
1.64
85.9
-0.61
1231.5
0.13
Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30
Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger
Officielle renter
Aktuelt
+3 mdr.
+6 mdr.
USA
Euroland
UK
Danmark
Sverige
Norge
0.125
0.05
0.50
0.20
0.25
1.50
0.125
0.05
0.50
0.20
0.05
1.50
0.500
0.05
0.75
0.20
0.05
1.50
+12 mdr.
1.250
0.05
1.00
0.20
0.75
1.50
Aktuelt
10-årig statsobligationer
+3 mdr.
+6 mdr. +12 mdr.
2.28
0.89
2.23
1.15
1.27
2.18
2.50
0.95
2.45
1.00
1.50
2.50
3.00
1.25
2.75
1.25
1.85
2.60
3.40
1.50
3.00
1.55
2.20
2.60
Aktuelt
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
USD/DKK
EUR/DKK
SEK/DKK
NOK/DKK
1.271
107.9
5.859
7.446
0.8107
0.8914
Valuta
+3 mdr.
1.24
109.0
6.01
7.45
0.828
0.898
+6 mdr.
1.16
110.0
6.42
7.45
0.837
0.898
+12 mdr.
1.10
110.0
6.77
7.45
0.866
0.909
2
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 27. oktober 2014
Kommende begivenheder
Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber
Dato
27-10-14
28-10-14
29-10-14
29-10-14
29-10-14
30-10-14
30-10-14
30-10-14
31-10-14
Selskab
Exiqon
Sydbank
DSV
Jyske Bank
Spar Nord Bank
Coloplast
Danske Bank
Novo Nordisk
TDC
Regnskab
3. kvartal
3. kvartal
3. kvartal
3. kvartal
3. kvartal
Årsregnskab
3. kvartal
3. kvartal
3. kvartal
Økonomisk kalender
Dato
27-10-14
27-10-14
27-10-14
27-10-14
27-10-14
27-10-14
28-10-14
28-10-14
28-10-14
28-10-14
28-10-14
28-10-14
28-10-14
28-10-14
28-10-14
29-10-14
29-10-14
29-10-14
29-10-14
29-10-14
29-10-14
29-10-14
30-10-14
30-10-14
30-10-14
30-10-14
30-10-14
30-10-14
30-10-14
30-10-14
30-10-14
30-10-14
31-10-14
31-10-14
31-10-14
31-10-14
31-10-14
31-10-14
31-10-14
31-10-14
31-10-14
31-10-14
31-10-14
31-10-14
31-10-14
Tid
10:00
10:00
12:00
14:45
15:00
15:30
00:50
02:30
08:00
09:30
13:30
13:30
14:00
15:00
15:00
00:50
08:45
09:00
10:00
12:00
19:00
19:00
08:00
09:00
09:00
09:00
09:55
11:00
13:30
13:30
14:00
14:45
00:30
00:30
01:05
08:00
08:45
11:00
11:00
11:00
13:30
13:30
13:30
14:45
Land
Tyskland
EMU
UK
USA
USA
USA
Japan
Kina
Tyskland
Sverige
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
Japan
Frankrig
Sverige
Norge
USA
USA
USA
UK
Danmark
Danmark
Schweiz
Tyskland
EMU
USA
USA
Tyskland
USA
Japan
Japan
Japan
UK
Tyskland
Frankrig
EMU
EMU
EMU
USA
USA
USA
USA
Indikator
IFO Business Climate
M3 Money Supply YoY
CBI Reported Sales
Markit US Composite PMI
Pending Home Sales (MoM/YoY)
Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
Retail Sales MoM
Industrial Profits YoY
Import Price Index (MoM/YoY)
Riksbank Interest Rate
Durable Goods Orders (MoM)
Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (MoM)
S&P/CS 20 City (MoM/YoY)
Consumer Confidence Index
Richmond Fed Manufact. Index
Industrial Production (MoM/YoY)
Consumer Confidence
Economic Tendency Survey
Unemployment Rate AKU
MBA Mortgage Applications
Fed QE3 Pace
FOMC Rate Decision
Nationwide House (MoM/YoY)
Unemployment Rate SA
Unemployment Rate Gross Rate
KOF Leading Indicator
Unemployment Rate
Economic Confidence
Initial Jobless Claims
GDP Annualized QoQ
CPI (MoM/YoY)
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
Jobless Rate
Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY
Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement
GfK Consumer Confidence
Retail Sales (MoM/YoY)
Consumer Spending (MoM/YoY)
Unemployment Rate
CPI Estimate YoY
CPI Core YoY
Personal Income (MoM)
Personal Spending (MoM)
PCE Core (MoM/YoY)
Chicago Purchasing Manager
Periode
Oct
Sep
Oct
Oct P
Sep
Oct
Sep
Sep
Sep
Oct 28
Sep
Sep
Aug
Oct
Oct
Sep P
Oct
Oct
Aug
Oct 24
Oct
Oct 29
Oct
Sep
Sep
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct 25
3Q A
Oct P
Oct 26
Sep
Sep
Oct
Sep
Sep
Sep
Oct
Oct A
Sep
Sep
Sep
Oct
Survey
104.6
2.2%
--1.0%
11.0
0.9%/0.8%
--0.1%/-1.9%
0.050%
0.4%
0.6%
0.15%/5.65%
87.2
10
2.2%/-0.1%
--3.4%
-$0B
0.25%
0.3%/8.5%
3.9%
5.0%
99.0
6.7%
99.8
-3.0%
-0.2%/0.9%
-3.6%
3.0%
SHB
104.5
--------0.050%
0.5%
--87.5
----3.3%
----4.0%
5.1%
98
-100.2
-3.5%
-----
Forrige
104.7
2.0%
31
59.0
-1.0%/-4.1%
10.8
1.9%/1.2%
-0.6%
-0.1%/-1.9%
0.250%
-18.4%
0.4%
-0.50%/6.75%
86.0
14
-1.9%/-3.3%
8600.00%
101.1
3.4%
11.6%
$15B
0.25%
-0.2%/9.4%
3.9%
5.0%
99.1
6.7%
99.9
283K
4.6%
0.0%/0.8%
37.7
3.5%
3.1%
-1.0
--11.5%
0.4%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%/
61.0
----0.4%
0.7%
-0.1%
0.1%/
--
-1.0
1.5%/0.1%
0.7%/1.4%
11.5%
0.3%
0.8%
0.3%
0.5%
0.1%/1.5%
60.5
Faktisk
Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk)
Ansvarsfraskrivelse:
Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er n øjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud
om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken
påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående
aftale.
3
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professional clients under Chapter 3 of the Financial Conduct Authority Conduct of Business Sourcebook (all such persons together being referred to as “Relevant Persons”).
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