PFL Weekly RIN Recap - Progressive Fuels Limited

PFL Weekly RIN Recap
Desk: 239-390-2885
Dec 11, 2014 to Dec 17, 2014
The November EMTS data was released late Tuesday revealing inline estimates for the month. The production numbers reported across all D-codes were lower,
although not all that much than the previous month as well as year over year. Many feel that the current break-even or negative economics for both the
ethanol and biodiesel cash markets will continue with the slide in crude and RBOB. With blending economics being so poor and along with the continued
uncertainty of when the EPA will actually announce in 2015, RIN values continue their push upward potentially approaching all time highs for the year. The
spread between the 2014-2015 D4 rins have shown the largest increase over the last week. Just a month ago it was averaging 2-3cents but has now widened to
4.5-5.5cents. The tax extenders packing including the biodiesel tax credit looks to be headed for the President's signature which would make it retroactive
again for the 2014 year. This would help a number of biodiesel producers for the year who were banking on this credit, although we seem to be headed for the
same position going into 2015.
D6 - 2013
63.75
59.75
63.75
High
Low
Close
CBOT ETHANOL
Month
Settle
Jan 15
1.6200
Feb 15
1.5600
Mar 15
1.5460
Apr 15
1.5440
Etoh - RBOB Diff
Month
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
Settle
0.05
(0.02)
(0.05)
(0.26)
D6 - 2014
66.00
60.75
65.00
D5 - 2013
63.75
59.75
63.75
D5 - 2014
65.50
61.50
65.50
D4 - 2013
63.00
59.50
63.00
D4 - 2014
68.00
62.50
67.00
RBOB
Month
Settle
Jan 15
1.5662
Feb 15
1.5793
Mar 15
1.5992
Apr 15
1.7997
Implied E85 Price
Month
RBOB
2
Etoh
E85
1.5
Calc
1.0594
1.0104
1.0015
1.0299
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
BO Futures
ULSD Futures
Jan 15
31.77 Jan 15
2.0085
Mar 15
31.97 Feb 15
1.9406
May 15
32.19 Mar 15
1.9088
Jul 15
32.40 Apr 15
1.8860
ULSD + RIN Value
Jan 15
3.014
Feb 15
2.946
Mar 15
2.914
Apr 15
2.891
Spot Arb Snapshot (cpg)
1
10/22/2014
11/6/2014
11/21/2014
12/6/2014
69
D4 '14
64
D5 '14
59
D6 '14
54
49
44
10/21/2014
11/5/2014
11/20/2014
12/5/2014
275
Argo
D5 - D6 Diff
0.50
250
FOB Santos
208.20
225
Implied NYH
Anhydrous
229.70
200
NYH
Santos
LA
175
150
Chicago
175.50
NYH
198.25
LA Ethanol
185.50
125
10/21/2014
11/5/2014
11/20/2014
12/5/2014
This report has been prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited (PFL) personnel for your information only and the views expressed are intended to provide market commentary and are not recommendations. This
report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security. The information contained herein has been compiled by PFL from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty,
express or implied, is made by Progressive Fuels Limited, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Copyright 2014 Progressive Fuels Limited. All Rights Reserved.
PFL 2013-14 D6 Outlook
all values in millions (unless stated otherwise)
2012 Recap
E12s Produced
E12 Surplus
12,978 per EMTS
2,039 per EMTS
2013 Data
2013 RVO
Useable E12s
E13s Required
2013 D6 production
Est. Shortfall / (Surplus)
13,800
2,039 2012 carryout
11,761
13,324 Dec EMTS
(1,563)
2013 US Ethanol Export (Denatured) estimate
Est. Shortfall / (Surplus)
415.5
(1,147) using estimated full year exports
Summary of 2013 D6 EMTS Data
EIA weekly production avg
D6 RINs from Renewable Diesel
D6 RINs from Biodiesel
854.8 2013 EIA data
196.4 (115.5 gal)
55.2 (36.8 gal)
2014 Projections (Dec STEO)
EIA Projected Gasoline Consumption (STEO est.)
Fuel Ethanol Blended into Gasoline (STEO est.)
Fuel Ethanol production (STEO est)
Ethanol demand at 10% (calc)
8,890
880
930
889
mb/d
mb/d
mb/d
mb/d
Chg from Nov
40
10
flat
40
2014 D6 RINs
2014 D6 proposed mandate
Less Projected 2013 Carry
Required daily production rate
RIN generation needed per month
13,000
11,853
773.2 mb/d
987.7 million RINs / month
Weekly average Ethanol production
Most recent 4 week average
YTD avg
D6 RINs from ethanol based on ytd avg.
990.0 week ended
980.5 4 wks ended
922.3
through
14,139 million RINs
Jan-Oct EMTS D6 RIN data
Annualized D6 Production based on EMTS
Prepared by Jason Sawicki
Progressive Fuels Limited
T: 239.390.2885
jason@progressivefuelslimited.com
13,009.9 million RINs
15,620 million RINs
12/12/2014
12/12/2014
12/12/2014
Dec '13
8,840
860
870
870