PFL Weekly RIN Recap - Progressive Fuels Limited

PFL Weekly RIN Recap
Desk: 239-390-2885
Jan 15, 2015 to Jan 21, 2015
The December EMTS data came out last Thursday and was higher than expectations with a total of 1.307bn RINs generated. That was the highest production level achieved on record. Regardless of the record December data, RIN values continued their weekly slide with most of the price decrease seen in the D5 and D6 RINs while the 2015 D4s have limited their fall. 2015 D4s are fighting strong to maintain their values in the mid‐low 90s. As mentioned last week, the poor blending economics and margins are the largest contributors to their strong values. The 2015 D4/D6 spread is currently marked at 28.25cts which is near its all‐time highs. Daily RIN volumes have been consistent maintaining 10‐15M per day since we hit our highs out about two weeks ago. However, we are seeing that the potential for a bottoming pattern in values could be happening. This should be further confirmed by seeing maintained or higher values with consistent or larger volume trading over the next few days. With the holiday on Monday and the NBB event in Dallas to start the week, trading has been thin as market participants are congregating and discussing what the future holds for in 2015. Lastly, an EPA official made comments yesterday at the NBB conference that a release of the 2014 RFS should happen in the spring, while the 2015 and 2016 targets should come by the end of this year. D6 - 2014
67.25
63.25
66.00
High
Low
Close
CBOT ETHANOL
Month
Settle
Feb 15
1.3300
1.3500
Mar 15
1.3710
Apr 15
1.3860
May 15
Etoh - RBOB Diff
Month
Settle
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
May 15
(0.02)
(0.03)
(0.23)
(0.24)
D6 - 2015
66.25
62.50
66.00
D5 - 2014
67.00
64.50
65.00
D5 - 2015
80.00
76.00
78.50
D4 - 2014
81.50
70.00
72.50
D4 - 2015
95.50
92.00
94.25
RBOB
Month
Settle
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
May 15
1.3507
1.3790
1.6039
1.6231
2.2
RBOB
Etoh
1.7
E85 w/o
RINs
Imp. E85 Price w/RINS
Month
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
May 15
Calc
0.7721
0.7934
0.8449
0.8606
BO Futures
ULSD Futures
32.82 Feb 15
1.6552
Mar 15
32.95 Mar 15
1.6320
May 15
33.11 Apr 15
1.6177
Jul 15
33.08 May 15
1.6232
Aug 15
ULSD + RIN Value
Feb 15
3.069
Mar 15
3.046
Apr 15
3.031
May 15
3.037
Spot Arb Snapshot (cpg)
1.2
0.7
11/17/2014
89
84
79
74
69
64
59
54
49
44
11/20/2014
12/2/2014
12/17/2014
1/1/2015
D4 '14
D5 '14
D6 '14
12/5/2014
12/20/2014
1/4/2015
1/19/2015
275
D5 - D6 Diff
-1.00
250
FOB Santos
221.45
225
Implied NYH
Anhydrous
244.45
200
Chicago
136.25
NYH
147.00
LA Ethanol
151.75
Argo
NYH
Santos
LA
175
150
125
11/20/2014
12/5/2014
12/20/2014
1/4/2015
1/19/2015
This report has been prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited (PFL) personnel for your information only and the views expressed are intended to provide market commentary and are not recommendations. This
report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security. The information contained herein has been compiled by PFL from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty,
express or implied, is made by Progressive Fuels Limited, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Copyright 2014 Progressive Fuels Limited. All Rights Reserved.
PFL 2013‐14 D6 Outlook
all values in millions (unless stated otherwise)
2012 Recap
E12s Produced
E12 Surplus
12,978 per EMTS
2,039 per EMTS
2013 Data
2013 RVO
Useable E12s
E13s Required
2013 D6 production
Est. Shortfall / (Surplus)
13,800
2,039 2012 carryout
11,761
13,324 Dec EMTS
(1,563)
2013 US Ethanol Export (Denatured) estimate
Est. Shortfall / (Surplus)
415.5
(1,147) using estimated full year exports
Summary of 2013 D6 EMTS Data
EIA weekly production avg
D6 RINs from Renewable Diesel
D6 RINs from Biodiesel
854.8 2013 EIA data
196.4 (115.5 gal)
55.2 (36.8 gal)
2015 Projections (Jan STEO)
EIA Projected Gasoline Consumption (STEO est.)
Fuel Ethanol Blended into Gasoline (STEO est.)
Fuel Ethanol production (STEO est)
Ethanol demand at 10% (calc)
8,710
830
920
871
mb/d
mb/d
mb/d
mb/d
Chg from Dec
‐19
‐60
‐20
‐18
2014 D6 RINs
2014 D6 proposed mandate
Less Projected 2013 Carry
Required daily production rate
RIN generation needed per month
13,000
11,853
773.2 mb/d
987.7 million RINs / month
Weekly average Ethanol production
Most recent 4 week average
YTD avg
D6 RINs from ethanol based on ytd avg.
979.0 week ended
969.5 4 wks ended
927.0
through
14,211 million RINs
Jan‐Dec EMTS D6 RIN data
Annualized D6 Production based on EMTS
14,302.4 million RINs
17,172 million RINs
Prepared by Jason Sawicki
Progressive Fuels Limited T: 239.390.2885
jason@progressivefuelslimited.com
1/16/2015
1/16/2015
1/16/2015
Jan '14
8,800
880
910
880