Onion & Potato Monthly Report - December 2014

Transcription

Volume 31
December, 2014
Onion
Executive Summary

5727 ha of area is sown compared to last year
area of 8596 ha.
All India, onion arrival in month of November is
approximately 44% higher compared to previous
month. If we compare onion arrivals in November
month on a yearly basis we observed that arrivals
are 29% higher than last year during same time.
As per IBIS (International Business Information
System), approximately 30320 tons of processed
and fresh onion has been exported in month of
November 2014 compared to previous month
export of 17531 tons.

As per Agriwatch estimate sowing intentions
for late Kharif onion is also lower by approx
7% as compared to previous year. Late
Kharif onion is expected to be around
104700 ha against previous year’s figures of
112300 ha.

In Maharashtra, arrivals are approximately 17%
higher compared to previous year in November
month. Prices are expected to fall down further
with increase in arrivals of Kharif and late Kharif
seasons.
In Karnataka, total Rabi area is approximately
16676 ha. As on 1.12.2014 approximately
Market Average
Avg. Prices
Avg. Prices
Change
in Arrivals
Previous (in %
Change Trend
Daily Avg.
Daily Avg.
Monthly
Wholesale
Price%(`/qtl)
and
Quintals)
Comparison
Over
Previous
Year
Arrivals
November
Arrivals
October
% Change
in Arrivals
Over Previous
Month
3033
-46.22
15185
11737
29.38
4.21
3115
-45.97
76500
97636
-21.65
1342
6.63
2950
-51.49
3676
7625
-51.79
1563
1427
9.53
2924
-46.55
5684
11442
-50.32
Mumbai
1656
1790
-7.49
3467
-52.24
17344
15413
12.53
Pune
1794
1708
5.04
3266
-45.07
7176
10583
-32.19
Jaipur
1670
1805
-7.48
3926
-57.46
2545
2818
-9.69
Chennai
2458
2309
6.45
4719
-47.91
4988
4622
7.92
Hyderabad
1900
1824
4.17
2214
-14.18
2195
1930
13.73
November
2014
October
2014
Prices Over Year Avg.
Previous
November
Month
(2013) Price
Delhi
1631
1809
-9.84
Bengaluru
1683
1615
Lasalgaon
1431
Pimplagaon
Source: Agriwatch
On a month-on-month basis, prices have decreased in
Jaipur, Delhi and Mumbai which are near producing
regions. In rest of the markets prices have increased by
4% to 10% as Kharif crop was picking up pace during
November end. Prices are expected to fall down ahead
as Kharif arrivals are arriving in market full fledged.
In Karnataka onion is arriving in market from
local region (Chitradurga, Hubli, Dawangre
and Gadag districts) has started arriving in market
and expected to continue for coming months
also.
Monthly Report | December 2014
Market Intelligence System
Monthly Average Retail Price (`/qtl) trend comparison
Market
State
Bengaluru
Bhubaneswar
Chennai
Delhi
Guwahati
Hyderabad
Kolkata
Mumbai
Patna
Karnataka
Odisha
Tamil Nadu
Delhi
Assam
A.P.
W. Bengal
Maharashtra
Bihar
Average
Retail Price
November 2014
2100
2400
2100
3200
2500
2600
2600
3100
2100
Average
Retail Price
October 2014
2100
2400
2400
3300
2600
2500
2300
2900
2100
Previous Year
Avg. Retail PriceNovember 2013
3700
4300
4700
5800
5400
3700
5600
6600
4600
% Change in % Change in
Price Over
Price Over
Prev. Month
Prev. Year
Unch
-43.24
Unch
-44.19
-12.50
-55.32
-3.03
-44.83
-3.85
-53.70
4.00
-29.73
13.04
-53.57
6.90
-53.03
Unch
-54.35
Source: Consumer Affairs
In Retail market, prices have increased in few markets
only whereas in rest market it is similar to previous year
or has fallen down slightly. In coming months prices are
expected to fall down with continuous and increase in
arrivals.
If we compare prices on a year on year basis it is
observed from above table that prices are almost half
of the prices during same time last year. Prices are low
this year as crop is in good condition and yield is more
compared to previous year.
All India Onion Monthly Arrivals
Harvesting Pattern of Kharif Onion in Maharashtra
July
August
September
October
November
Source: Agmarknet
The above graph shows the monthly all India arrivals.
Arrivals are higher in November month than last month
because fresh arrivals from different producing regions
and majorly from Maharashtra. In coming months
arrivals are expected to arrive with this continuous pace.
In Maharashtra, maximum Kharif crop is harvested in
November month.
Technical Analysis of Onion Prices at Lasalgaon, Nasik
Note: Each bar or “candle” in the chart shows the price movement in
a particular week. The green candle signifies prices increased and red
candle signifies prices decreased in that week. The length of the “candle”
shows the upper and lower end of the price range for the week.
4 Week of Dec
3 Week of Dec
2 Week of Dec
1 Week of Dec
4 Week of Nov
3 Week of Nov
2 Week of Nov
4 Week of Oct
1 Week of Nov
3 Week of Oct
0
2 Week of Oct
200
20
0.00%
1 Week of Oct
400
40
5.00%
4 Week of Sep
600
60
10.00%
3 Week of Sep
800
80
15.00%
2 Week of Sep
Arrivals in ('000 MT)
1000
0
120
Cumulative%
100
1 Week of Sep
2012-13
% Harvest
2013-14
Overall %
20.00%
Cumulative Harvest in %
25.00%
Comparision of All India Monthly Onion Arrivals
1200
(Agriwatch survey)
Harvesting starts from 2nd and 3rd week of September
in few districts like Dhule, Usmanabad and Ahmadnagar
where early Kharif crop is sown during mid June. Till end
of October, 25-30% crop will be harvested and next 50%
crop will be harvested in the month November, maximum
during 4th week of November. Remaining 20-25% is
expected to be harvested in the month of December.
However, this could change based on price and weather
conditions during November and December. The chart shows the monthly price movement of
onion in the benchmark of Lasalgaon mandi of
Nasik. During the month of November modal
prices touched low of `1200/qtl. and trading near
`1431/qtl. On the upper side prices may find resistance
at a level of `1700/qtl. whereas long term support is
`1000/qtl. Overall, onion prices are expected to fall
further as Relative strength indicator (RSI) oscillator is
moving downward in neutral region which suggest
prices may fall down further may be in a range of
`1000- `1500/qtl. in coming month.
Potato
Executive Summary

In U.P., potato area is expected to be 2-3%
higher compared to previous year. Fresh crop
which is also called “Kachha Aloo” has started
arriving in market from, Kannauj, Farrukhabad
and Meerut regions.

In M.P, fresh potato has started arriving in
market along with stored crop from U.P. Fresh
crop varieties are Atlanta, surya and FC3 which
are picking up pace.

In West Bengal, sowing is almost completed
with 10% higher area compared to previous
year. Early fresh crop is expected to start in next
10-15 days.

In Karnataka, targeted area for Rabi season is
9855 ha. As on 1-12-2014 approximately 3107
ha of area is sown compared to last year 2967
ha during same time. Kolar is major producing
region which is approximately 45% of total
targeted area.

Odhisa state civil supplies corporation has
formed a committee to ensure a buffer stock of
3 lakh MT to overcome the potato crisis during
August – November month.

Across the country potato prices has start
declining in most of the markets as fresh crop
from, Punjab and U.P. has started arriving in
market and further arrivals are expected to
increase.
Monthly Wholesale Price Trend in Different Producing & Consuming Centers
Market
November 2014 October 2014
Avg. Wholesale Avg. Wholesale
Price (`/Qtl)Price (`/Qtl)(Fresh Potato)
(Fresh Potato)
Delhi
1878
2102
Khandauli (Agra)
1938
1914
Farrukhabad
1838
2267
Ludhiana
1722
1800
Kolkata
2024
1802
Jaipur
1830
1916
Mumbai
2327
2255
Bengaluru
2325
2236
Tarkeshwar
1871
1739
November
2013 Avg.
Wholesale
Price (`/Qtl)
1418
1504
1426
1210
1213
1376
1741
1703
1142
Absolute
% Change Over % Change Over
Change Over
Prev. Month
Prev. Year
Prev. Month
(`/Qtl)
-224
-10.66
48.24
24
1.25
27.26
-429
-18.92
58.98
-78
-4.33
48.76
222
12.32
48.56
-86
-4.49
39.24
72
3.19
29.52
89
3.98
31.30
132
7.59
52.28
Source: Agriwatch
The above table shows the monthly average prices of
major markets and variation of prices with previous
month and year. In most of the markets mixed variation
of prices is seen. Prices are expected to fall down
further as fresh crop from U.P. is picking up pace.
If we compare the prices with previous year during
same time it is observed that prices are comparatively
higher than last year because of lower storage and
crop damage last year. But in this Rabi season prices
are expected to remain stable.
Monthly Retail Price (`/qtl) and arrivals (Tons) trend in different Consuming Centers:
Market
Nov. 2014 Oct. 2014 Previous year % Change % Change Total Arrivals Total Arrivals Total Arrivals
Avg. Retail Avg. Retail Avg. Retail
in Price in Price Over in Nov. 2014 in Oct. 2014 in Nov. 2013
Price (`/qtl)- Price (`/qtl)PriceOver Prev. Prev. Year
(in qtl )*
(in qtl )*
(in qtl )*
(Fresh Potato) (Fresh Potato) Nov. 2013
Month
Bengaluru
2700
2600
3000
3.85
-10.00
160525
167300
255000
Chennai
2900
3000
3000
-3.33
-3.33
53600
50400
53300
Delhi
3300
3600
3000
-8.33
10.00
601400
462600
705400
Guwahati
2800
2700
2300
3.70
21.74
31200
20920
29600
Hyderabad
3500
3200
3000
9.38
16.67
18700
32550
30810
Mumbai
3200
3100
2600
3.23
23.08
269250
248100
249250
Ranchi
3000
2600
2000
15.38
50.00
49750
51900
28510
Source: *Agriwatch
Retail prices are higher in almost all the markets
except Chennai and Delhi. Prices are higher as fresh
crop from U.P. is just picking up pace and expected
to fall down ahead as arrivals are expected to
increase.
If we compare on a year on year arrivals are lower in
few markets as it is clearly visible in above table. All
India arrivals in month of November is approximately
20% less compared to previous year during same
time.
Technical Analysis Potato Spot Market (Khandauli, Agra)
Note: Each bar or “candle” in the chart shows the price movement in a particular month. The blue candle signifies prices increased and red candle
signifies prices decreased in that month. The length of the “candle” shows the upper and lower end of the price range for the week.
The above chart shows the monthly price movement
of potato for Agra (Khandauli) market. Modal
prices are trading approximately `1938/qtl.
On the higher side prices may find long term
resistance at a level of 2250/qtl. On the lower
side prices may find long term support at a level of
`1800/qtl. As per Fibonacci retracement indicator
prices may touch a level of `1800/qtl on lower
side and may breach this level to `1500/qtl in next
one month.
Disclaimer
The information contained in this document has been compiled by Agriwatch from sources believed to be reliable, such as NHB,
Agmarknet, etc. and directly from traders in mandis. However, users of this data are requested to use the information with due caution
and crosscheck with other sources. This document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or buy any commodities. This
document may not be reproduced, distributed or published without the express consent of SFAC.
Report Produced by:
Report Prepared by:
SMALL FARMERS’ AGRIBUSINESS CONSORTIUM
Indian Agribusiness Systems Pvt. Ltd.
NCUI Auditorium Building, 5th Floor, 3 Siri Institutional Area
August Kranti Marg, Hauz Khas, New Delhi – 110016
Tel: (011) 26862365, 26966017 | Fax: (011) 26862367
Email: sfac@nic.in | Web: www.sfacindia.com
H–128, First Floor, Sector 63, Noida – 201 301, India
Tel: (0120) 4618100 | Fax: (0120) 4618118
Email: services@agriwatch.com | Web: www.agriwatch.com