Indian Soybean Complex Recap Indian RM Seed

ADMISI Commodity Research
January 15, 2015
Sriram V. Iyer: sriram@admisi.in
Indian Soybean Complex Recap
NCDEX
Soybean
JAN5
FEB5
APR5
JUN5
PCP
Close
Open
High
Low
3340
3442
3516
3580
3373
3461
3510
3559
3335
3428
3499
3568
3380
3499
3544
3595
3334
3412
3476
3536
Net
Chg
33
19
-6
-21
% Vol
Chg
48.42
39.94
53.38
17.83
%
Volume
Chg
0.99
6590
0.55
73410
-0.17 23620
-0.59
3040
OI
14750
87440
24820
5740
OI
Chg
-5050
-4810
1280
130
Net OI Change = -8450
Spread
Jan-2015
Feb-2015
Mar-2015
NCDEX
Soy oil
JAN5
FEB5
APR5
JUN5
PCP
Close
Feb-2015
-88
Open
High
Low
665.3 670.25 670.2
652.35 652.7 649.4
625.65 622.6 625.3
609.95 597.85 602.95
673
654.2
625.6
603.5
667
649.4
619.1
596
Apr-2015
-137
-49
Net
Chg
4.95
0.35
-3.05
-12.1
Jun-2015
-186
-98
-49
%
Volume
Chg
0.74 17740
0.05 40875
-0.49 17325
-1.98 13465
% Vol
Chg
43.41
-11.86
53.45
17.75
OI
20460
73720
50870
45430
OI
Chg
-3485
-4850
3405
5060
Net OI Change = 130
Spread
Jan-2015
Feb-2015
Apr-2015
Feb-2015
17.55
Apr-2015
47.65
30.10
Jun-2015
72.40
54.85
24.75
Indian RM Seed Recap
NCDEX
RM Seed
JAN5
APR5
MAY5
JUN5
JUL5
PCP
Close Open High
Low
4068
3547
3587
3668
3687
4075
3524
3564
3603
3643
4056
3512
3548
3593
3640
4080
3536
3576
3603
3640
4084
3550
3585
3618
3648
Net.
Chg.
7
-23
-23
-65
-44
%
Volume
Chg
0.17
360
-0.65 28520
-0.64
4510
-1.77
1280
-1.19
40
% Vol.
Chg.
-68.42
-48.90
-31.67
43.82
-
OI
6400
37830
5600
1580
130
OI
Chg.
-100
180
-520
60
-
Net OI Change = -380
Spread
Jan-2015
Apr-2015
May-2015
Apr-2015
551
May-2015
511
-40
Jun-2015
472
-79
-39
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ADMISI Commodity Research
January 15, 2015
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Sriram V. Iyer: sriram@admisi.in
Indian Soybean and Soy oil remained mixed with near month and active contracts ends higher,
while rest of the contracts falls on Wednesday.
Soy complex prices continued to be influenced by strong Rupee which continued to appreciate
today.
RM Seed prices falls on Wednesday. Downside limited as ICE Canola ended firm.
Indian RM Seed output in 2014-15 may be 7.0 million MT vs. 7.4 million MT in the previous year.
Latest sowing data shows, RM Seed was sowed in 6.48 million hectares across India vs. 6.94
million hectares in the corresponding period in the previous year.
Traders estimate this year’s Soybean crop between 9 – 10 million MT. USDA estimates Indian
Soybean crop at 11.0 million MT. COOIT expects Indian Soy crop at 9.17 million MT.
According to 1st Advance estimates for 2014-15 released by GoI, India’s output for Soybean is
estimated at 11.82 million MT.
Soy meal exports from India rose to 193,832 MT in December from 110,806 MT in November.
India's oil meal exports in December 2014 were 389K MT vs. 188K MT in previous month.
Veg. oil imports in November 2014 were at 1.149 million MT vs. 0.92 million MT in Nov 2013.
NCDEX delivery data showed that total soybean and RM seed deliveries were 1880 MT and 1730
MT respectively.
NCDEX Warehouse Inventory
12-Jan-15
Soybean - Akola
961
Soybean - Indore
12469
Soybean - Kota
870
Soybean - Vidisha
710
Soybean - Mandsaur
120
TOTAL SOYBEAN
15130
RM Seed - Alwar
RM Seed - Jaipur
RM Seed - Kota
RM Seed - Sri Ganganagar
TOTAL RM Seed
221
1859
7985
128
10193
13-Jan-15
961
11470
870
710
14011
221
1939
8165
128
10453
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ADMISI Commodity Research
January 15, 2015
Date
14-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
India Physical Market Rates
Commodity
Soybean - Indore - NCDEX
Soybean - Kota - NCDEX
Soybean - Nagpur - NCDEX
Refined Soy oil - Indore - NCDEX
Refined Soy oil - Mumbai - NCDEX
Refined Soy oil - Nagpur - NCDEX
Soybean meal Export - Kandla - NCDEX
Soybean meal - Indore - NCDEX
Soy meal Export Kandla FAS - SEA
Mustard meal Export Kandla FAS - SEA
Mustard Seed - Jaipur - NCDEX
Mustard oil - Sri Ganganagar - NCDEX
Sriram V. Iyer: sriram@admisi.in
Rate
3392.00
3270.75
3360.00
677.00
665.00
681.25
29000.00
28700.00
460.00
280.00
4210.75
770.00
Units
Rs. / 100 Kg
Rs. / 100 Kg
Rs. / 100 Kg
Rs. / 10 Kg
Rs. / 10 Kg
Rs. / 10 Kg
Rs. / MT
Rs. / MT
USD / MT
USD / MT
Rs. / 100 Kg
Rs. / 10 Kg
Market Arrivals of Soybean
Soybean Arrivals for 15 January 2015 in MT
Gandai
5.00
Basava Kalayana
48.00
Bhalki
50.00
Dharwar
225.00
Gulbarga
110.00
Haveri
350.00
Kalagategi
130.00
Burhanpur
1.00
Chhapiheda
1.80
Indore
163.20
Khargone
20.00
Mandsaur
40.00
Momanbadodiya
6.00
Piplya
1.20
Sagar
46.00
Sonkatch
1.00
Ausa
12.70
Jintur
6.50
Nagpur
4.00
Shrirampur
5.80
Bazpur
29.98
Rudrapur
74.50
(Source - Dept. of Agriculture GoI)
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ADMISI Commodity Research
January 15, 2015
Sriram V. Iyer: sriram@admisi.in
International Markets Recap
CBOT
Soybean
MAR5
MAY5
JUL5
AUG5
SEP5
Previous
1004
1010
1015.75
1014.5
999
CBOT Soy
meal
MAR5
MAY5
JUL5
AUG5
SEP5
CBOT Soy
oil
MAR5
MAY5
JUL5
AUG5
SEP5






Close
Open
High
Low
1009.25
1005
1011.5 992.75
1014.5 1010.25 1016.75 998.5
1020
1015.5 1022.25
1004
1019.25 1014.25 1019.75 1003.25
1003.75
996
1000
988.5
Net Chg
% Chg.
5.25
4.50
4.25
4.75
4.75
0.52
0.44
0.42
0.47
0.47
Previous
Close
Open
High
Low
Net Chg
% Chg.
333.6
328.3
327.7
327.2
326.1
335.5
330.2
329.8
329.4
328.7
333.1
327.9
327
326.9
326
336.4
331.5
330.5
329.9
327.7
329
323.5
323.2
323
322.8
1.9
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.6
0.57
0.58
0.64
0.67
0.79
Previous
Close
Open
High
Low
Net Chg
% Chg.
32.54
32.68
32.86
32.86
32.84
32.82
32.95
33.11
33.08
33.04
32.69
32.83
32.95
33.06
32.96
32.87
33.02
33.2
33.16
33.04
32.49
32.65
32.83
32.83
32.87
0.28
0.27
0.25
0.22
0.2
0.85
0.82
0.76
0.67
0.61
CBOT Soybean complex rose for a second session on expectations of strong demand.
Buyers stepped into the market after weakness in overnight trading.
Pakistani importers bought about 66,000 MT of U.S. soybeans. Crushers in that country are
switching from canola and rapeseed, European traders said.
ICE Canada canola futures mostly rose on Wednesday, supported by strength in soy oil and
weakness in the Canadian dollar.
Private exporters reported sales of 202,750 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations, including
102,750 MT for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year that began Sept. 1, and 100,000 MT for
delivery in 2015/2016, the USDA said.
U.S. commercial handlers were holding the largest ever soybean supplies as of Dec. 1 following
last year's record harvest, while South American farmers were likely to gather their biggest soy
crop in history, the USDA data showed.
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ADMISI Commodity Research
January 15, 2015
Sriram V. Iyer: sriram@admisi.in
Date
15-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
Physical Market Rates - Soybean
Commodity
Brazil Soybean January - FOB Paranagua
Argentina Soybean May - FOB Up River
China Imported Soybean Dalian
USA Soybean January - FOB Gulf
Date
15-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
Physical Market Rates - Soy meal
Commodity
Brazil Soy meal January - FOB Paranagua
Argentina Soy meal February - FOB Up River
China HQ Soy meal Dalian
Rate
387.90
415.57
3300.00
Units
$ / MT
$ / MT
CNY / MT
Physical Market Rates - Soy Oil
Commodity
Brazil Soy Oil January - FOB Paranagua
Argentina Soy Oil February - FOB Up River
China Standard Soy Oil Dalian
Rate
795.20
800.72
5580.00
Units
$ / MT
$ / MT
CNY / MT
Date
15-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
Rate
391.55
385.75
3300.00
403.80
Units
$ / MT
$ / MT
CNY / MT
$ / MT
Weather
Source: IMD
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ADMISI Commodity Research
January 15, 2015
Sriram V. Iyer: sriram@admisi.in
Charts & Outlook
NCDEX
Source: Reuters
NCDEX Soybean February (3461)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
Key support is at 3405. Key resistance is at 3497.
Source: Reuters
NCDEX Soy Oil February (652.6)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
Key support is at 647.10. Key resistance is at 660.65.
6
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 15, 2015
Sriram V. Iyer: sriram@admisi.in
Source: Reuters
NCDEX RM Seed December (3524)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
Key support for RM Seed is at 3500. Key resistances are at 3559.
Indian Outlook: Soybean and Soy oil could trade range bound to firm, tracking firm overseas prices.
Rupee continues to appreciate on Thursday and could limit upside in soy oil prices. RM Seed prices
could trade firm, tracking firm overseas prices. However, fresh arrivals could limit upside.
CBOT
Source: Reuters
CBOT Soybean March (1015.5)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
Key support is at 1004.75 and 990.75. Key resistances are 1025.25 and 1042.00.
7
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 15, 2015
Sriram V. Iyer: sriram@admisi.in
Source: Reuters
CBOT Soy meal March (336.6)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
Key support is at 329.1. Key resistance is at 340.2.
Source: Reuters
CBOT Soy oil March (33.30)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
Key support is at 32.75. Key resistance is at 33.51.
Outlook: Soybean and Soy oil could trade range bound to firm on firm export demand. Investors will
monitor the release of the U.S. Department of Agriculture export data on soybeans later in the day.
8
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 15, 2015
Sriram V. Iyer: sriram@admisi.in
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