Jan 22, 2015 - Moneycontrol

ADMISI Commodity Research
January 22, 2015
Contents
Tushar Rathod: tushar@admisi.in
(Click on the topics)
1. Recap
2. Physical Market Rates
3. Arrivals
4. Weather
5. Charts and Outlook
6. Disclaimer
1
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 22, 2015
Tushar Rathod: tushar@admisi.in
Recap
Indian markets
NCDEX
Previous Close
Soybean
FEB5
3458
3393
APR5
3486
3414
JUN5
3530
3435
AUG5
3562
3488
Net Total Change in OI =
Open
High
Low
3451
3481
3537
3555
1160
3470
3500
3541
3555
3375
3393
3416
3426
Spread
Feb-2015
Apr-2015
Jun-2015
NCDEX
Previous Close
Soy Oil
FEB5
641.9
636.9
APR5
615.8
613.2
JUN5
592.55
588.55
AUG5
590.85
587.65
Net Total Change in OI =
High
Low
641.4
616.5
589.95
588.2
-550
644.8
617
590.8
590.2
635.5
610.7
585.6
586.5
•
Feb-2015
High
Low
3498
3535
3578
3624
-3030
3515
3550
3578
3624
3411
3441
3495
3559
Apr-2015
% Chg.
Volume
-1.88
-2.07
-2.69
-2.08
80580
27730
4680
480
Jun-2015
-42
-21
Net
Chg.
-5
-2.6
-4
-3.2
Apr-2015
23.70
Open
Spread
Apr-2015
May-2015
Jun-2015
•
•
•
Apr-2015
-21
Open
Spread
Feb-2015
Apr-2015
Jun-2015
NCDEX RM
Previous Close
Seed
APR5
3498
3445
MAY5
3534
3480
JUN5
3573
3522
JUL5
3618
3579
Net Total Change in OI =
Feb-2015
Net
Chg.
-65
-72
-95
-74
May-2015
-35
Net
Chg.
-53
-54
-51
-39
Volume
-0.78
-0.42
-0.68
-0.54
50450
9680
9350
2175
87530
35940
7760
1140
OI
Chg.
-4310
4170
1160
140
% Vol.
Chg.
40.29
1.63
-24.90
16.62
OI
69485
61805
52505
11620
OI
Chg.
-4160
1855
1725
30
Aug-2015
49.25
25.55
0.90
% Chg.
Volume
-1.52
-1.53
-1.43
-1.08
58620
6190
1000
70
Jun-2015
-77
-42
OI
Aug-2015
-95
-74
-53
% Chg.
Jun-2015
48.35
24.65
% Vol.
Chg.
94.50
69.29
136.36
700.00
% Vol.
Chg.
73.33
139.00
81.82
-12.50
OI
36550
5920
1830
210
OI
Chg.
-3970
860
80
0
Jul-2015
-134
-99
-57
Indian oilseed complex prices closed lower yesterday. Rupee ended higher.
Indian RM Seed output in 2014-15 may be 7.0 million MT vs. 7.4 million MT in the previous year.
Latest sowing data shows, RM Seed was sowed in 6.49 million hectares across India vs. 7.04
million hectares in the corresponding period in the previous year.
Traders estimate this year’s Soybean crop between 9 – 10 million MT. USDA estimates Indian
Soybean crop at 11.0 million MT. COOIT expects Indian Soy crop at 9.17 million MT.
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ADMISI Commodity Research
January 22, 2015
•
•
•
Tushar Rathod: tushar@admisi.in
According to 1st Advance estimates for 2014-15 released by GoI, India’s output for Soybean is
estimated at 11.82 million MT.
Soy meal exports from India rose to 193,832 MT in December from 110,806 MT in November.
India's oil meal exports in December 2014 were 389K MT vs. 188K MT in previous month.
Veg. oil imports in December 2014 were at 1.12 million MT vs. 1.05 million MT in Dec 2013.
Soybean - Akola
Soybean - Indore
Soybean - Kota
Soybean - Vidisha
TOTAL SOYBEAN
NCDEX Warehouse Inventory
19-Jan-15
1112
8749
870
710
11441
20-Jan-15
1112
8749
870
710
11441
221
2252
8535
128
11136
221
1959
8575
128
10883
RM Seed - Alwar
RM Seed - Jaipur
RM Seed - Kota
RM Seed - Sri Ganganagar
TOTAL RM Seed
Date
21-Jan-15
21-Jan-15
21-Jan-15
21-Jan-15
21-Jan-15
21-Jan-15
21-Jan-15
21-Jan-15
21-Jan-15
21-Jan-15
India Physical Market Rates
Commodity
Soybean - Indore - NCDEX
Soybean - Kota - NCDEX
Refined Soy oil - Indore - NCDEX
Refined Soy oil - Mumbai - NCDEX
Refined Soy oil - Nagpur - NCDEX
Soybean meal Export - Kandla - NCDEX
Soybean meal - Indore - NCDEX
Soy meal Export Kandla FAS - SEA
Mustard meal Export Kandla FAS - SEA
Mustard oil - Sri Ganganagar - NCDEX
Rate
3382.00
3289.15
663.30
645.00
673.50
28950.00
28000.00
450.00
280.00
747.50
Units
Rs. / 100 Kg
Rs. / 100 Kg
Rs. / 10 Kg
Rs. / 10 Kg
Rs. / 10 Kg
Rs. / MT
Rs. / MT
USD / MT
USD / MT
Rs. / 10 Kg
3
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 22, 2015
International
•
•
•
•
•
Tushar Rathod: tushar@admisi.in
CBOT Soybean
Previous
Close
Open
High
Low
MAR5
MAY5
JUL5
AUG5
SEP5
982
987.75
993
992.5
977.5
983.5
989.5
994.5
994
978
983.5
988.5
994
996.75
983
991
996.75
1002
1000.25
984
977.5
983.5
989.25
989.5
975.75
CBOT Soy Meal
Previous
Close
Open
High
Low
MAR5
MAY5
JUL5
AUG5
SEP5
326.5
319.3
318.6
318.1
317.4
330.5
322.7
321.3
320.7
319.7
327.5
320.6
319.1
318.6
318.3
331.7
324.3
323.4
322.7
321.2
326.2
318.8
318.1
318
317.9
Net
Chg.
1.50
1.75
1.50
1.50
0.50
Net
Chg.
4
3.4
2.7
2.6
2.3
% Chg.
0.15
0.18
0.15
0.15
0.05
% Chg.
1.21
1.05
0.84
0.81
0.72
CBOT Soy Oil
Previous
Close
Open
High
Low
Net
Chg.
% Chg.
MAR5
MAY5
JUL5
AUG5
SEP5
32.84
33
33.17
33.12
33.01
32.41
32.58
32.76
32.73
32.65
32.85
33.04
33.22
33.15
33.26
33.15
33.3
33.47
33.33
33.26
32.33
32.49
32.67
32.71
32.59
-0.43
-0.42
-0.41
-0.39
-0.36
-1.33
-1.29
-1.25
-1.19
-1.10
CBOT Soy complex prices closed mixed yesterday with Soy oil moving lower.
Soybean and Soy meal prices rose on likely bargain buying after the recent slide to multi month
lows amid some concerns about weather for Soy crop in S. America.
USDA said private exporters reported the sale of 176,000 MT of Soybeans to China for delivery
during the 2014/15 marketing year.
According to CFTC CoT report, for the week ending 13 January, non commercial traders
decreased their net long positions in CBOT Soybeans.
ICE Canola prices closed higher yesterday.
4
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 22, 2015
Tushar Rathod: tushar@admisi.in
Physical Market Rates
Date
22-Jan-15
17-Jan-15
21-Jan-15
22-Jan-15
Physical Market Rates - Soybean
Commodity
Brazil Soybean January - FOB Paranagua
Argentina Soybean May - FOB Up River
China Imported Soybean Dalian
USA Soybean January - FOB Gulf
Date
22-Jan-15
22-Jan-15
21-Jan-15
Physical Market Rates - Soy meal
Commodity
Brazil Soy meal January - FOB Paranagua
Argentina Soy meal February - FOB Up River
China HQ Soy meal Dalian
Date
22-Jan-15
22-Jan-15
21-Jan-15
21-Jan-15
Physical Market Rates - Soy Oil
Commodity
Brazil Soy Oil January - FOB Paranagua
Argentina Soy Oil February - FOB Up River
China Standard Soy Oil Dalian
India Soy Oil Degummed CIF Mumbai
Rate
384.46
379.50
3300.00
397.30
Units
$ / MT
$ / MT
CNY / MT
$ / MT
Rate
389.70
410.61
3220.00
Units
$ / MT
$ / MT
CNY / MT
Rate
758.60
763.02
5650.00
876.00
Units
$ / MT
$ / MT
CNY / MT
$ / MT
5
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 22, 2015
Tushar Rathod: tushar@admisi.in
Arrivals
Soybean Arrivals for 21 January 2015
Location
MT
Bemetara
11.70
Kawardha
37.90
Dahod
17.60
Modasa
7.00
Bailahongal
200.00
Basava Kalayana
197.00
Bidar
16.00
Dharwar
519.00
Gulbarga
55.00
Hubli (Amaragol)
45.00
Kalagategi
363.00
Agar
120.00
Badnawar
500.00
Chaurai
325.00
Chhapiheda
1.20
Harsood
43.20
Indore
600.00
Khatora
1.50
Khujner
28.90
Lateri
13.90
Mandsaur
510.00
Momanbadodiya
17.50
Mungawali
15.50
Narsinghgarh
59.20
Neemuch
106.50
Piplya
17.20
Sagar
136.70
Sarangpur
45.00
Seoni
1.40
Shamshabad
7.10
Sheopurkalan
1.50
Sitmau
3.00
Gevrai
1.30
Shrirampur
3.70
Anta
1.10
Atru
5.00
Baran
38.20
Bundi
39.10
Chhabra
30.00
Chhabra(Chhipabadod)
33.70
Khanpur
27.00
Kota
152.00
Adilabad
13.20
Source - Dept. of Agriculture (GoI)
6
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 22, 2015
Tushar Rathod: tushar@admisi.in
IMD
7
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 22, 2015
Tushar Rathod: tushar@admisi.in
Charts & Outlook
NCDEX Charts
Source: - Reuters
NCDEX Soybean February (3393.00)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
Source: - Reuters
NCDEX Soy Oil February (637.50)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
8
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 22, 2015
Tushar Rathod: tushar@admisi.in
Source: - Reuters
NCDEX RM Seed April (3445.00)
Trade Recommendation: - Sell in the range 3474 – 3490, S/L 3517, TGT 3421 - 3371.
NCDEX Outlook: - Rupee is trading flat. Resistance for Soybean/ Soy oil are at 3500/660 levels.
Downside towards 3350/630 levels may be seen. RM Seed prices may move lower towards 3350 levels.
CBOT Charts
Source: - Reuters
CBOT Soybean March (988.00)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
9
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 22, 2015
Tushar Rathod: tushar@admisi.in
Source: - Reuters
CBOT Soy meal March (331.80)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
Source: - Reuters
CBOT Soy Oil March (32.52)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
Outlook: - Ideas of new supplies from S. America are bearish. Soy complex prices may move lower
towards 960/315/32.00 levels.
10
ADMISI Commodity Research
January 22, 2015
Tushar Rathod: tushar@admisi.in
DISCLAIMER:
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is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Archer Daniels Midland Company
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