Reliance Industries
Transcription
Reliance Industries
15 June 2015 Update | Sector: Oil & Gas Reliance Industries BSE Sensex 26,425 S&P CNX 7,983 CMP: INR889 TP: INR965 (+9%) Neutral AGM: Core capex on track; telecom launch in Dec-15 Refining a near term support; E&P turnaround and traction in telecom critical to support RoE improvement Stock Info Bloomberg RIL’s AGM (Annual General Meeting) did not see any new announcements, but was largely an update on ongoing USD32b core/non-core capex. Barring a 6-month cracker delay, core projects are largely on track. Telecom launch in Dec-15 and its first ever detailed disclosure gave glimpse of Reliance Jio’s network, content creation/affordable handset efforts and likely pricing. While voice strategy remains uncertain, we believe 4G subscriber conversion would be key. Large non-core investments even if accretive over long-term; any gains will be back-ended, diluting overall return ratio in the interim. RIL IN Equity Shares (m) 3,236.4 52-Week Range (INR) 1,113/797 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 4/0/22 M.Cap. (INR b) 2,877.7 M.Cap. (USD b) 44.9 Avg Val(INRm)/Vol ‘000 3632/3822 Free float (%) 54.8 Core capex monetization from FY17; except cracker, projects on track Financial Snapshot (INR Billion) Y/E Mar 2015 2016E 2017E 3,573 2,848 3,429 Net Sales 316.0 350.4 454.4 EBITDA 227.2 250.0 308.1 Adj PAT 77.5 Adj. EPS (INR) 3.4 Gr (%) BV/Sh (INR) 85.3 103.8 10.0 23.2 737.9 810.3 890.1 RoE (%) 11.0 11.0 12.3 RoCE (%) 10.5 10.6 12.4 Adj. P/E (x) 11.5 10.4 8.6 P/BV (x) 1.2 1.1 1.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.8 9.0 6.8 Div. Yield (%) 1.1 1.2 1.5 JIO: 4G subscriber conversion would be key; voice strategy uncertain Shareholding pattern (%) As on Mar-15 Dec-14 Mar-14 Promoter 45.2 45.3 45.3 DII 12.6 12.0 11.3 FII Others 22.0 20.2 22.2 20.5 22.1 21.4 Of the core projects, petcoke gasification and phased polyester commissioning is largely on track, while off-gases cracker is delayed by 6 months with now scheduled commissioning in 3QFY17. On the domestic E&P, RIL acknowledged that domestic E&P business shareholder returns are below cost of capital, but its portfolio is still promising with yet to be monetized 5-6tcf discovered gas resources. Organized retail: To increase its presence from 200 cities (2,600 stores) currently to 900 cities by next year. To roll out e-commerce initiative by earend and together with physical stores expect 30% to 50% yoy growth. FII Includes depository receipts Stock Performance (1-year) Reliance Inds. Sensex - Rebased 1,350 1,200 1,050 900 While Reliance JIO commercial launch is delayed to Dec-15 (vs expected phased launch in CY15), a combination of (a) significant expected decline in the 4G handset price to INR4,000 by Dec-15 (vs INR8,000-10,000 now) and (b) significant capacity/scale of JIO planned at launch date (~100m wireless subscribers) would lead to increased activity in the telecom data market. Reliance JIO’s voice strategy remains uncertain as no particular details were shared about how it would be providing voice services which currently constitute ~80% of the Indian wireless market revenue. We expect potential tie-up with existing operators for circuit-switched-fall-back (CSFB). Large-scale population coverage planned by JIO combined with low 4G handset prices can enable mass adoption of 4G services. However, rate of subscriber up-take would be the key as JIO would be largely targeting churn from existing subscribers with the proposition of a cheaper and better data offering. Valuation and view 750 Jun-15 Mar-15 Dec-14 Sep-14 Jun-14 1 A six month delay in cracker and low shale gas returns could be offset by better GRM’s in FY17. On FY17E basis (standalone), the stock trades at 9x adj. EPS of INR104 and EV/EBITDA of 6.8x. SOTP-based target price stands at INR965/sh. Neutral. A Harshad Borawake (HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5432 Shobhit Khare (Shobhit.Khare@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428 Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report. Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital. Reliance Industries Exhibit 1: Similar to FY14, RIL’s AGM focused on update of ongoing core and mom-core capex implementation and no new announcements were made AGM Year Announcements Current Status FY06 (1) Reliance Retail would entail an equity investment of INR100b RIL has invested INR146b in Reliance Retail till date with and total investment of INR250b covering 1,500 cities and towns presence in 200 cities (2,600stores) FY07 (1) Announced PX expansion at Jamnagar from current 1.9 to Expected to commission by 4QFY16 / 1QFY17 4.5mmtpa in two phases. Post expansion will be 15% of global PX capacity. (2) Announced to build 2mmtpa petchem complex (3) Announced as a new 6mmtpa World's largest Integrated RIL expects completion of Petcoke Gasification Project by Combined Cycled Coke Gasification plant at Jamnagar by 2012. 4QFY16 / 1QFY17 The feed will be Petcoke from two refineries , adding to complexity and further value addition from bottom of the barrel FY08 (1) Indicated avenues for future growth over longer term Though no formal announcements have been made, media has 1. Fostering rural prosperity - will create rural business hubs. reported some forays in agri-related businesses and in todays 2. Alternative energy - as a natural extension of conventional AGM speech reiterated its intentions of investing in alternative energy portfolio - no details given. energy. FY09 (1) No new project announcement, however will now focus on earlier announced 2mmtpa petchem complex RIL is commissioning 1.5mmtpa of off-gas cracker by 3QFY17 (v/s earlier guidance of 4QFY16 / 1QFY17) FY10 (1) N-paraffin capacity: To set up a plant to convert kerosene into normal paraffin. (2) Will focus on accelerated development in KG-D6, NEC-25 (Mahanadi basin), CB-10 in Cambay basin and CBM block in Sohagpur, Madhya Pradesh. (3) To increase the retail business revenues 10x from current Rs45b to Rs450b in next 5 years. (4) It will invest ~Rs200b in the broadband space through its 95% subsidiary, Infotel. FY11 (1) Along with BP, RIL undertaking extensive KG-D6 study to sustain and augment production No update since the announcement While KG-D6 production has dropped to ~11.5mmscmd from the peak of 64mmscmd, production in CBM block is expected by FY16 Revenues from Retail business in FY15 wre INR176b, and RIL now expects Retail business to double in every 3-4 years. RIL estimated total investment in Telecom business to be INR700b but now already crossed INR850b Domestic E&P portfolio has 5-6 tcf of yet to be developed discovered resource, indicated in FY15 AGM FY12 (1) Expects 30-40% GRM improvement through petcoke gasification RIL now expects Petcoke Gasification Project by 4QFY16 / project in next 3 years. 1QFY17; expects USD1.5b savings (2) targeting a growth of 5x to 6x in existing revenues and achieve INR400b to INR500b crore over the next 3-4 years. (3) Commissioning of 1.8mmtpa PX Plant in Jamnagar, 2.3mmtpa PTA expansion in Dahej to be in 12-36months FY13 (1) RIL re-iterates organized retail revenue target of INR400-500b in 3-4 years v/s INR100b now FY14 RIL has given a roadmap on the launch of telecom business launch – To do a phased launch in 2015. RIL has spelled out Telecom business investment of INR700b v/s INR350b till endFY14 (was estimated but company announced for the first time). FY15 (1) Reliance Jio commercial operations to start in Dec-15, network capacity to reach 80% of India's population Revenues from Retail business in FY15 wre INR176b, and RIL now expects Retail business to to grow by 30-50% RIL now expects commissioning of PX Plant in 4QFY16 / 1QFY17, and PTA commissioned RIL now expects Retail business to double in every 3-4 years (CAGR of 20-25%) TILL DATE RIL HAS COMMITTED CAPEX OF INR850 billion, PLANNED COMMERCIAL SSTART IN December 2015 (2) To expand organized retail presence from current 200 cities to 900 cities in next one year (3) No new project announcements Source: Company, MOSL 15 June 2015 2 Reliance Industries Telecom venture update As on March 31, 2015, telecom business spend by RIL stood at INR850b including spectrum payables. RIL’s spend towards spectrum is INR340b. In AGM, many significant details of the Telecom project were publicly shared for the first time: End-to-end initial capacity to serve ~100m wireless broadband customers (vs ~84m total wireless broadband subscribers in India as of March 2015) and ~20m Fibre-To-The-Home (FTTH) customers, Extensive beta launch over the next few months with upgrade to commercial operations by December 2015, Expectation of ~INR4,000 price 4GLTE smart phone by December 2015 vs INR8,000-10,000 currently, Expected ARPU of INR300-INR500 per month vs 3G data ARPU of ~INR200 currently, Target ~80% population coverage by December 2015 with plan to reach 100% within next three years (vs ~87% currently for Bharti Airtel), 250,000 route km of fiber optics (vs 197,000 Rkms for Bharti Airtel) with plan to double in next three years, Plan to connect 1m homes in top-50 cities through FTTH by April 2016, and Several applications which are a part of the integrated strategy like Jio Chat (Communication), Switch-and-Walk (Data transfer), Jio Drive (Cloud capabilities), Jio Play (Video on demand), Jio Beats (digital music), and Jio Mags (online Magazines). Detailed Project-wise core capex update RIL is executing three large core projects in its core businesses (1) Petcoke gasification, (2) off gases cracker and (3) Polyester expansion. Recently it has also announced ~USD1.5b ethane sourcing project. As on March 2015, RIL had cumulatively spent ~65% of the USD16b core refining and petchem project capex. 15 June 2015 Polyester: Commissioned 400KT polyester plant at Silvassa and 1.15mmt PTA capacity at Dahej. To commission another 1.15mmtpa PTA capacity by Oct-15 and also double PX capacity to 4.3mmt by end-FY16. Polymers: 1.5mmt ethylene cracker (refinery off-gases based) to start by 3QFY17 (a 6-month delay). Ethane sourcing capability from US for its Nagothane, Hazira and Dahej crackers will be ready by Dec-16. Elastomers: Commissioned 150KT SBR plant, apart from earlier 115KT expansion of PBR capacity. Refining and marketing: Petcoke gasification to start phased commissioning from early 2016 (on track) and expects savings of USD1.5b. To start all its petroleum retail outlets (~1,400) by end-FY16 as diesel stands deregulated now, currently 400 operational. E&P: While, acknowledging that domestic E&P business shareholder returns are below cost of capital, RIL Chairman indicated that its domestic E&P portfolio still 3 Reliance Industries has 5-6tcf gas resource that can be monetized. In response of falling oil/gas prices, RIL’s US shale business has managed to reduce opex by 25-30%. Exhibit 2: New projects to drive RIL’s next growth phase Project Off-gases cracker Capex (USD b) ~4.5 Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) ~4.5 Polyester expansion Ethane sourcing Total ~4.5 1.5 ~16.0 Feedstock’s Refinery off-gases (From CDU, FCC etc.) Petcoke (From delayed coker unit) Key products Petrochemicals (mainly ethylene chain) Petrochemicals, Power, Steam, Chemicals PX, PFY, PSF, PET Replacing domestic gas and high cost propane/naphtha Exhibit 3: Status update of ongoing core business capex plans In KTPA Refinery Off-gas Cracker Ethylene Propylene LDPE LLDPE Benzene PP Polyesters PFY PTY PSF PET Polyester Intermediates Paraxylene PTA MEG Rubber Division PBR SBR Butyl Rubber HPIB Current Capacity Planned Expansion Total Status / Likely production start 1,883 759 190 928 419 2,100 1,365 154 400 550 453 135 3,248 913 590 1,478 872 2,235 Delayed to 3QFY17 (v/s 4QFY16 expected earlier) Delayed to 3QFY17 (v/s 4QFY16 expected earlier) Delayed to 3QFY17 (v/s 4QFY16 expected earlier) Delayed to 3QFY17 (v/s 4QFY16 expected earlier) Along with PX line Delayed to 3QFY17 (v/s 4QFY16 expected earlier) 670 153 692 290 395 140 346 648 1,065 293 1,038 938 Commissioned Commissioned 1,830 2,050 733 1,890 2,296 730 3,720 4,346 1,463 Phase 1 in 2H2015 and Phase 2 after 4QFY16 Phase 1 commissioned; Phase 2 after 6 months 4QFY16, in interim could purchase feedstock 74 40 150 100 105 114 150 100 105 Phase 1 commissioned; Phase 2 in Dec 2015 Commissioned in 4QFY14 July-Sept 2014 (2QFY15) Commissioning by 2016 Source: Company, MOSL 15 June 2015 4 Reliance Industries Valuation and view RIL is in the midst of executing its largest ever capex plans in core and non-core businesses. Large non-core investments though could be accretive from a longterm perspective; the gains will be backended, diluting RIL’s overall return ratio profile in the interim. We expect the next earnings growth in RIL in FY17, when its large projects commission and gas volumes increase. Till then, RoE will hover at ~12%. Key things to watchout for RIL: (1) E&P arbitration case outcome for domestic E&P clarity, (2) Update on core capex plan of ~USD14b and (3) Update on telecom foray. For FY16/FY17, we model a) GRM at USD8.5/10/bbl, b) KG-D6 gas price at USD4.2/5.4/mmbtu (only MA) and c) KG-D6 volumes at ~11.5mmscmd, respectively. Every USD1/bbl change in GRM impacts RIL’s EPS by ~10%. A six month delay in cracker and low shale gas returns could be offset by better GRM’s in FY17. On FY17E basis (standalone), the stock trades at 9x adj. EPS of INR104 and EV/EBITDA of 6.8x. SOTP-based target price stands at INR965/sh. Neutral. Exhibit 4: RIL: Key assumptions Key Metrics Exchange Rate (INR/USD) Refining Capacity (mmt) Production (mmt) Capacity Utilization (%) GRM (USD/bbl) Blended GRM Singapore GRM Premium to Singapore E&P Gas Production (mmscmd) Oil Production (kbd) Pricing Brent Oil (USD/bbl) Wellhead Gas Price (USD/mmbtu) FY09 45.8 FY10 47.6 FY11 45.6 FY12 47.9 FY13 54.5 FY14 60.5 FY15E 61.2 FY16E 63.0 FY17E 64.0 33.0 32.0 97% 62.0 60.6 98% 62.0 66.5 107% 62.0 67.6 109% 62.0 69.1 111% 62.0 68.0 110% 62.0 68.8 111% 62.0 68.0 110% 62.0 68.0 110% 12.3 5.8 6.5 6.9 3.6 3.3 8.4 5.2 3.2 8.6 8.3 0.3 9.2 7.9 1.4 8.2 5.6 2.6 8.6 6.4 2.3 8.5 6.5 2.0 10.0 6.5 3.5 39.8 10.7 56.2 18.9 42.6 10.9 26.5 9.1 13.8 6.4 12.2 6.6 11.5 6.1 11.5 6.1 69.7 4.2 86.5 4.2 114.5 4.2 110.6 4.2 108.5 4.2 FY09 96 69 23 188 FY10 60 86 55 200 FY11 92 93 67 252 FY12 97 90 53 239 FY13 128 73 29 230 FY14 132 86 20 239 FY15E 160 86 15 261 51% 37% 12% 100% 30% 43% 27% 100% 36% 37% 27% 100% 40% 38% 22% 100% 56% 32% 13% 100% 55% 36% 9% 100% 61% 54% 54% 33% 42% 43% 6% 3% 3% 100% 100% 100% Source: Company, MOSL 84.8 86.0 60.0 70.0 4.5 4.6 4.7 Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 5: RIL: Segmental EBIT break-up (INRb) Segmental EBIT (INRb) Refining Petchem E&P Total Segmental EBIT share (%) Refining Petchem E&P Total 15 June 2015 FY16E 159 124 9 291 FY17E 203 160 12 375 5 Reliance Industries Exhibit 6: RIL: Sum of the parts valuation Business Core business Refining Petchem E&P Initiatives KG - D6 Gas (KG Basin) KG - D6 MA1 Oil (KG Basin) NEC - 25 (Mahanadi basin) Sohagpur East & West (CBM) PMT Investment in Shale Gas Investments Investments in RGTIL, RIIL Investments in fuel Retailing Investments in BWA Investment in SEZ Reliance Retail Less: Net Debt/ (Cash) Total Base Value 15 June 2015 USD b INR b 43.1 22.3 20.8 3.5 1.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 2,584 1,337 1,247 211 84 4 13 16 Adj. INR/sh 885 458 427 72 29 1 5 6 0.6 0.9 37 57 13 19 Currently producing; EV @2x EBITDA JV with Atlas, Pioneer & Carrizo; valued at 1x equity investment 7.0 0.4 0.5 1.8 0.2 4.1 6.6 47.0 417 24 30 105 13 245 394 2,819 143 8 10 36 4 84 135 965 Includes Reliance Retail, RGTIL, RIIL and SEZ At book value 25% discount to investments 25% discount to license value adjusted for elapsed time Valued at 0.3x equity investment 100% subsidiary of RIL; 1x sales Remarks/Methodology EV @5.5x EBITDA, implied USD1168/complexity bpd Core business EV @6x EBITDA Includes KG-D6, NEC-25, CBM, KG-III-6 and Yemen block DCF; 60% stake; 6tcf cumulative; model 4tcf yet to recover DCF; 60% stake; 43mmbbls recovery; (LT Brent – USD80/bbl) DCF; 60% stake; OGIP of 3tcf DCF; 100% stake; OGIP of 3.65 TCF, assumed 50% recovery Based on fully diluted equity sh. of 2,921m (excl 309m treasury sh.) Source: MOSL 6 Reliance Industries Reliance Industries: Story in charts Exhibit 7: RIL’s earnings growth momentum has slowed down Exhibit 8: Also return ratio’s declined significantly Rolling 3 Yr PAT CAGR (%) PAT (INRb) RoE (%) 400 45% 24 320 33% 18 21% 12 80 9% 6 0 -3% 0 240 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E 160 RoCE (%) Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 9: FY14 Cons. Capital Employed: Higher share of non-core long gestation capex impacting RIL’s pverall return ratios Cons. CE Break-up (%) 3 8 5 2 8610 45 45 39 FY06 7 5 5 218 42 4 12 4 222 8 10 4 223 35 35 1 18 4 2 5 2 22 26 7 7 28 25 4 2 6 4 10 29 4 2 6 7 9 27 22 3 2 12 12 6 19 23 314 13 7 19 8 9 6 20 316 6 18 316 13 8 18 13 10 Unalloc. Cash & Equiv. Retail SEZ Telecom E&P (Shale) E&P (Domestic) Refining Petchem 17 29 22 22 18 16 13 14 14 15 16 17 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 10: While core business RoCE would be healthy, subdues/nil returns in non-core businesses would drag overall profitability (%) RIL Cons RoIC ROIC (%) 30 Petchem Refining E&P (Domestic) E&P (Shale) Retail 20 10 0 -10 FY07 15 June 2015 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E 7 Reliance Industries Reliance Industries: Story in charts Exhibit 11: E&P has been a dampener - despite cyclical downturn Refining & Petchem benefited by INR depreciation Refining 100% Petchem E&P Exhibit 12: Expect E&P production revival when its new development projects commission (mmscmd) 60 75% 45 50% 30 25% 15 FY17E FY16E FY15E FY14 FY13 FY12 FY11 FY10 FY09 0% 0 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 13: RIL refining margins have been largely flat in recent years (USD/bbl) Singapore GRM Premium/(disc) Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 14: While, recent petchem EBIT margins are low, we expect some recovery led by polymer chain (%) RIL GRM 15% 20 16% 15% 13% 13% 13% 12% 11% 15 15% 10% 9% 9% 10 10% 5 FY17E FY16E FY15E FY14 FY13 FY12 FY11 FY10 FY09 FY08 FY07 FY06 FY05 FY04 FY03 FY02 0 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 Exhibit 16: RIL 1Yr Fwd P/E Chart (last 15 years) 22% 32 20% 24 P/E (x) 15 Yrs Avg(x) 5 Yrs Avg(x) 10 Yrs Avg(x) 13.3 11.9 16 17% 10.7 8 15% FY16E Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 15: Dividend Payout continues to remain low (%) FY14 10.0 Source: Company, MOSL 15 June 2015 Jun-15 Apr-14 Feb-13 Dec-11 Nov-10 Sep-09 Jul-08 FY14 May-07 FY12 Mar-06 FY10 Feb-05 FY08 Dec-03 FY06 Oct-02 FY04 Aug-01 FY02 Jun-00 0 12% Source: Company, MOSL 8 Reliance Industries Financials and valuations RIL – Key Assumptions Y/E March Exchange rate (INR/USD) KG-D6 Gas (USD/mmbtu) RIL GRM Singapore GRM Premium/(disc) 2010 47.6 4.3 6.5 3.6 3.0 2011 45.6 4.3 8.4 5.2 3.2 2012 47.9 4.3 8.6 8.3 0.3 2013 54.5 4.3 9.2 7.9 1.4 2014 60.5 4.3 8.2 5.6 2.6 2015E 61.2 4.5 8.6 6.4 2.3 2016E 63.0 4.6 8.5 6.5 2.0 2017E 64.0 4.7 10.0 6.5 3.5 RIL - Income Statement (INR Billion) Y/E March Net Sales Change (%) RM Cons & Purchases Employee Costs Other Expenditure Change in Stocks 2010 1,925 35.7 1,509 24 126 -39 2011 2,482 28.9 1,947 26 160 -32 2012 3,299 32.9 2,763 29 180 -9 2013 3,603 9.2 3,066 34 228 -33 2014 3,901 8.3 3,298 34 256 4 2015 3,573 -8.4 2,631 36 571 19 2016E 2,848 -20.3 2,135 37 325 0 2017E 3,429 20.4 2,458 40 477 0 306 15.9 105 20 25 205 43 21.0 162 162 4.0 381 15.4 136 23 31 252 50 19.6 203 203 24.9 336 10.2 114 27 62 258 57 22.2 200 200 -1.2 308 8.5 95 30 80 263 53 20.1 210 210 4.8 309 7.9 88 32 89 278 58 21.0 220 220 4.7 316 8.8 85 24 87 295 67 22.9 227 227 3.4 350 12.3 79 23 71 320 70 22.0 250 250 10.0 454 13.3 105 25 82 407 98 24.2 308 308 23.2 6.9 39.8 8.4 56.2 8.6 42.6 9.2 26.5 8.2 13.8 8.6 12.2 8.5 11.5 10.0 11.5 EBITDA % of Net Sales Depreciation Interest Other Income PBT Tax Rate* (%) PAT Adj. PAT Change (%) Key Operating Metrics GRM (USD/bbl) KG-D6 production (mmscmd) 15 June 2015 9 Reliance Industries RIL – Balance Sheet (INR Billion) Y/E March Share Cap. (incl sh. Susp.) Reserves Net Worth Total Loans Deferred Tax Capital Employed 2010 33 1339 1,372 625 109 2,106 2011 33 1483 1,515 674 116 2,305 2012 33 1628 1,661 684 121 2,466 2013 32 1768 1,800 724 122 2,646 2014 32 1,939 1,971 855 122 2,948 2015E 32 2,130 2,162 851 128 3,142 2016E 32 2,342 2,374 848 132 3,354 2017E 33 2,608 2,641 845 136 3,621 Gross Fixed Assets Less: Depreciation Net Fixed Assets Capital WIP Investments 2159 626 1,533 121 232 2213 785 1,427 128 377 2055 918 1,137 78 540 2132 1034 1,097 191 525 2,226 1,132 1,094 417 861 2,333 1,216 1,117 629 907 2,462 1,295 1,167 810 937 3,168 1,400 1,768 336 967 270 117 135 103 298 174 271 171 360 184 396 257 427 119 495 330 429 107 366 402 357 103 176 416 305 82 131 431 341 99 241 447 368 36 220 2,106 497 46 373 2,305 442 43 712 2,466 495 43 832 2,646 686 42 576 2,948 516 48 490 3,142 457 52 440 3,354 515 62 550 3,621 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 49.6 54.8 81.7 463.2 7.0 15.0 62.0 68.4 103.5 511.2 8.0 13.7 61.3 67.7 96.1 560.7 8.5 14.7 65.0 71.9 94.4 616.5 9.0 14.6 68.0 75.2 95.2 674.2 9.5 16.4 70.1 77.5 96.4 737.9 10.0 16.7 77.2 85.3 101.5 810.3 11.0 16.7 94.0 103.8 126.0 890.1 13.4 16.7 17.9 16.2 10.9 10.8 1.7 1.9 0.8 14.3 13.0 8.6 8.3 1.3 1.7 0.9 14.5 13.1 9.3 8.6 0.9 1.6 1.0 13.7 12.4 9.4 9.0 0.8 1.4 1.0 13.1 11.8 9.3 9.4 0.7 1.3 1.1 12.7 11.5 9.2 9.8 0.9 1.2 1.1 11.5 10.4 8.8 9.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 9.5 8.6 7.1 6.8 0.9 1.0 1.5 13.4 11.3 14.8 12.9 13.0 12.1 12.3 11.6 11.7 11.1 11.0 10.5 11.0 10.6 12.3 12.4 15 1.1 21 1.1 20 1.5 15 1.7 11 1.8 11 1.6 12 1.2 10 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Curr. Assets, L & Adv. Inventory Debtors Cash & Bank Balance Loans&Adv.and Other CA Current Liab. & Prov. Liabilities Provisions Net Current Assets Application of Funds RIL – Key Financial and Valuation Ratios Y/E March Basic (INR) EPS Adj. EPS (ex Treasury) Cash EPS Adj. Book Value DPS Payout (incl. Div. Tax.) Valuation (x) P/E Adj. P/E Cash P/E EV / EBITDA EV / Sales Adj. Price / Book Value Dividend Yield (%) Profitability Ratios (%) RoE RoCE Turnover Ratios Debtors (No. of Days) Fixed Asset Turnover (x) Leverage Ratio Net Debt / Equity (x) 15 June 2015 10 Reliance Industries RIL – Cash Flow Statement (INR Billion) Y/E March OP/(Loss) before Tax Depreciation (excl. revaluation) Interest expense Direct Taxes Paid (Inc)/Dec in Wkg. Capital Interest/other income Other op activities CF from Op. Activity 2010 205 105 20 -31 -53 -21 -21 205 2011 252 136 23 -42 1 -26 -11 333 2012 258 114 27 -48 -28 -44 -8 270 2013E 263 95 30 -47 58 -62 -7 330 2014 278 88 32 -61 145 -65 4 422 2015 295 85 24 -61 -104 -69 0 169 2016E 320 79 23 -67 4 -50 0 308 2017E 407 105 25 -94 0 -55 0 387 (Inc)/Dec in FA & CWIP Free Cash Flow (Pur)/Sale of Investments Interest/other income Other In activities CF from Inv. Activity -218 -13 -12 22 26 -182 -121 212 -141 23 35 -203 -80 190 62 19 -31 -30 -159 171 22 65 -75 -148 -325 97 -312 68 -38 -607 -319 -150 -46 69 0 -296 -310 -1 -30 50 0 -290 -232 156 -31 55 0 -208 1 -88 -22 2 30 -24 -2 -85 -28 -31 -23 -29 2 84 -31 0 -27 -36 0 -26 -38 0 -28 -42 -110 7 -115 -83 55 -63 -64 -70 -87 222 135 137 135 271 125 271 396 99 396 495 -130 495 365 -190 365 175 -46 175 130 110 130 240 Change in Equity Inc / (Dec) in Debt Dividends Paid CF from Fin. Activity Inc / ( Dec) in Cash Add: Opening Balance Closing Balance 15 June 2015 11 Disclosures This document has been prepared by Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (hereinafter referred to as Most) to provide information about the company(ies) and/sector(s), if any, covered in the report and may be distributed by it and/or its affiliated company(ies). This report is for personal information of the selected recipient/s and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to Reliance you. This research report does not Industries constitute an offer, invitation or inducement to invest in securities or other investments and Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (hereinafter referred as MOSt) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your general information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any form. 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