Document

CEMA Business Barometer
Survey Report May 2015
What is the CEMA Business Barometer?
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
A monthly survey within for the European agricultural machinery industry (started
in 2008)
Coverage of all major sectors – from tractors to municipal equipment
Target group: 140 senior managers from 8 (CEMA) countries
Implementation: online survey
Questionnaire available in five languages
Executed by VDMA for CEMA
Subjects of the survey:
► current and future business situation
► situation of order intake
► development of turnover
► turnover expectation per country
► production plans
► employment plans
► special topics, e.g. delivery times
Deadlines: starting ca. 5th each month, closure: ca. 12th
13 May 2015
Page 2
Contact: Gerd.Wiesendorfer@vdma.org
Recession trends cover all European markets now.
Executive summary of the May survey
The sentiment of the European agricultural machinery industry remained more or less
unchanged in the last survey compared to the slightly improved trends that we saw in April.
After the strong decline in business over the past nine months, the level of orders and sales
has reached a new base. Only a minority of the managers thinks that this base will become
considerably lower during this recession phase. So the expectation meanwhile goes
towards an overall “flat development”.
On the other hand, an astonishing result in this survey was that the concrete market
expectations by country have all fallen back again, contrary to the changed picture one
month ago, so there is a kind of “zigzag development” over the past few months, which
might be the expression of uncertainty. There is no single European market left now for
which the industry expects a higher demand in the following short-term period. For
Germany and France, expectations have slightly deteriorated so that now around 50% and
more expect a further decline, although only to a limited extent.
The reach of the orders on hand is 2.2 months currently. Since the start of this survey, only
in 2010, this value was minor at this point of time. Most companies do have a visibility for
their business that only reaches from one to two months of production time.
The workforce in the companies has already been reduced, so that the speed of further
reduction is lower now. Temporary workers are even hired by some companies in order to
manage the high season business.
13 May 2015
Page 3
Contact: Gerd.Wiesendorfer@vdma.org
Business Climate
Index Development 2012-2015
CEMA Business Climate Index (CBI)
60
CBI
Present Situation
40
Future Expectation
0
201201
201202
201203
201204
201205
201206
201207
201208
201209
201210
201211
201212
201301
201302
201303
201304
201305
201306
201307
201308
201309
201310
201311
201312
201401
201402
201403
201404
201405
201406
201407
201408
201409
201410
201411
201412
201501
201502
201503
201504
201505
20
-20
-26 -26
-40
-31
-60
Source: CEMA Business Barometer
Index = sum of 1) evaluation of the current business situation and 2) turnover expectation, scale from -100 to +100
13 May 2015
Page 4
Contact: Gerd.Wiesendorfer@vdma.org
Business Climate
Illustration of Business Cycle
90
Boom
Upswing
Balance
2009
70
Expectation for the coming 6 months
2010
50
2011
2012
30
2013
2014
10
Jan-May 2015
-10
May
2015
-30
-50
-70
Downswing
Recession
-90
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
Evaluation of current business
Source: CEMA Business Barometer, each value as an average of the last two months
13 May 2015
Page 5
Contact: Gerd.Wiesendorfer@vdma.org
50
70
Balance
90
Business Climate
Current Evaluation and Expectations
Question: We consider our current business to be ….
100%
6%
6%
Question: We expect our overall turnover within the
next 6 months to....
5%
very
unfavourable
decrease
40%
80%
39%
43%
43%
unfavourable
49%
42%
60%
remain
unchanged
satisfying
39%
40%
35%
45%
36%
good
34%
28%
grow
20%
very good
16%
16%
201504
201505
10%
22%
21%
24%
201503
201504
201505
0%
201503
Source: CEMA Business Barometer
13 May 2015
Page 6
Contact: Gerd.Wiesendorfer@vdma.org
Employment
Question: Our plans regarding the workforce
Regular employees
Temporary employees
increase
6%
increase
11%
reduce
17%
reduce
38%
keep
unchanged
77%
Source: CEMA Business Barometer May 2015
13 May 2015
Page 7
Contact: Gerd.Wiesendorfer@vdma.org
keep
unchanged
51%