2015-03 CEMA Business Barometer Report

CEMA Business Barometer
Executive summary report March 2015
General view on the markets has improved
Executive summary of the March survey
Since its recent lowest level in November 2014, the business climate of the European
agricultural machinery industry has permanently improved. The reason behind is mainly a
less unfavorable expectation for sales in the near future. Nevertheless, it remains unclear
where a new growth should take place, as only two of the 15 European countries and
regions in scope are currently seen on the rise: Spain and Switzerland. Behind those two
markets, a rather flat development is foreseen for the UK, the Czech Republic and Poland,
according to the CEMA survey.
For France and Germany - both markets having a weight of 35-40% within the EU - the
perspectives continue to be “bearish”, with around 10% decline for 2015. This trend is
confirmed by the last order intake estimates.
For both the EU and outside EU markets, the total new order levels of the industry declined
by another 5% approximately in February.
An update of the quarterly turnover forecast for 2015 lead to similar results compared to
December: An expected decline by around 3% for the total Western European industry.
Every third company sees certain growth for their business in 2015, while 60% of the
answers range from “flat” to -20%.
In the international context, the European industry sees an above average decline of the
markets in their home region, while the general expectation for the overseas markets –
including the USA – is not that bad.
16 March 2015
Page 2
Contact: Gerd.Wiesendorfer@vdma.org
Business Climate
Illustration of Business Cycle
90
Boom
Upswing
Balance
2009
70
Expectation for the coming 6 months
2010
50
2011
2012
30
2013
2014
10
Jan-Mar 2015
-10
Mar
2015
-30
-50
-70
Downswing
Recession
-90
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
Evaluation of current business
Source: CEMA Business Barometer, each value as an average of the last two months
16 March 2015
Page 3
Contact: Gerd.Wiesendorfer@vdma.org
50
70
Balance
90
Optimists are getting some ground referring to near
future sales
Question: We consider our current business to be ….
100%
6%
8%
Question: We expect our overall turnover within the
next 6 months to....
6%
very
unfavourable
decrease
80%
40%
39%
39%
unfavourable
53%
52%
49%
60%
remain
unchanged
satisfying
40%
39%
45%
good
45%
28%
34%
32%
grow
20%
very good
14%
201502
9%
10%
13%
16%
201503
201501
201502
22%
0%
201501
Source: CEMA Business Barometer
16 March 2015
Page 4
Contact: Gerd.Wiesendorfer@vdma.org
201503
Constant and slight increase of the CEMA Business
climate index
CEMA Business Climate Index (CBI)
60
CBI
Present Situation
40
Future Expectation
0
201111
201112
201201
201202
201203
201204
201205
201206
201207
201208
201209
201210
201211
201212
201301
201302
201303
201304
201305
201306
201307
201308
201309
201310
201311
201312
201401
201402
201403
201404
201405
201406
201407
201408
201409
201410
201411
201412
201501
201502
201503
20
-20
-40
-31
-34
-39
-60
Source: CEMA Business Barometer
Index = sum of 1) evaluation of the current business situation and 2) turnover expectation, scale from -100 to +100
16 March 2015
Page 5
Contact: Gerd.Wiesendorfer@vdma.org
Not much change for perspectives on the major
Euroipean markets
Ranking according to the expected turnover on the single European markets
Country
Index
201501 201502 201503
1 Spain
12
9
11
2 Switzerland
-1
4
7
3 UK + Ireland
-1
-4
-2
4 Czech Republic + Slovakia
3
-4
-4
5 Poland
-5
-5
-2
6 Italy
-13
-9
-9
7 Austria
-15
-13
-9
7 Romania
-8
-13
-12
9 Germany
-13
-15
-21
10 Other new EU member states
-11
-19
-21
11 Scandinavia (DK, N, S) + FIN
-5
-20
-21
12 Belgium
-19
-20
-18
13 France
14 Netherlands
15 CIS countries
-19
-10
-50
-21
-21
-52
-27
-21
-50
Status March 2015
16 March 2015
Explanatory note:
Possible index scale: from -100 to +100
All single market indications given in the survey are summed
up and weighted according to the extent of expected
decrease/increase
positive index value illustrates prevailing
 expectation for increasing turnover in
this market over the next six months
negative index value illustrates prevailing
 expectation for decreasing turnover in
this market over the next six months
Country ranking ascending from highest increase resp. lowest
decrease to lowest increase resp. highest decrese. The index
figures do not show expected %-change rates in turnover, just
the expected trend up/down!
Page 6
Contact: Gerd.Wiesendorfer@vdma.org
Average -5%/-10% in turnover in February both for
European and overseas markets
Question: Compared to the same period a year ago our turnover in the past month developed as follows:
for EU markets
more than -20%
more than -20%
9%
-11 to -20%
27%
flat from +2% to -2%
39%
+3 to +10%
more than +20%
10%
1%
0%
Page 7
13%
-3 to -10%
26%
flat from +2% to -2%
26%
+3 to +10%
+11 to +20%
more than +20%
Source: CEMA Business Barometer March 2015
16 March 2015
16%
-11 to -20%
14%
-3 to -10%
+11 to +20%
for markets outside the EU
Contact: Gerd.Wiesendorfer@vdma.org
15%
2%
3%
New orders are performing below 2014 levels
Order intake development: % change trend for EU and non-EU markets
calculated as an unweighted average value and illustrated as an average for the past two months
10
EU
8
Outside EU
6
4
2
0
201104 201107 201110 201201 201204 201207 201210 201301 201304 201307 201310 201401 201404 201407 201410 201501
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
Source: CEMA Business Barometer, last indication for Feb 2015
16 March 2015
Page 8
Contact: Gerd.Wiesendorfer@vdma.org
Diverging order intake trends in France and Italy
Question: Compared to the same period a year ago, the development of our order intake on the domestic
market in the past month was…
France
more than -20%
Italy
0%
7%
-11 to -20%
36%
-3 to -10%
7%
23%
0%
15%
+11 to +20%
14%
more than +20%
14%
28%
8%
8%
Source: CEMA Business Barometer March 2015, answ ers of the French, German and Italian participants referring to their domestic market
16 March 2015
Page 9
46%
23%
21%
flat from +2% to -2%
+3 to +10%
23%
64%
Contact: Gerd.Wiesendorfer@vdma.org
31%
Constantly rather negative market expectations for
France and Germany.
Question: Turnover expectation for the next 6 months on the two biggest European markets
France
Germany
100%
decrease of
more than -20%
90%
decrease
between -10%
and -20%
80%
70%
decrease
between -3% to
-10%
60%
flat between + 2
and - 2%
50%
40%
increase
between +3%
and +10%
30%
increase
between +10%
and +20%
20%
10%
increase more
than +20%
0%
201410 201411 201412 201501 201502 201503
201410 201411 201412 201501 201502 201503
Source: CEMA Business Barometer
16 March 2015
Page 10
Contact: Gerd.Wiesendorfer@vdma.org
Current Voices of the Industry
Selection of participants´ comments with indication of their origin by country
►
« Revival of European market which started in Q4/2014 continues in the new year (UK,
Southern and Central Europe). Situation in CIS unchanged: Investment decisions are blocked
by the rouble exchange rate and lack of government support. » (Belgium)
►
« Our company turnover is supported by the good performance of the viticulture sector, while
the arable farming business is rather 30% down. » (France)
►
« We've had a good SIMA Show in Paris end of February with similar number of visitors and a
good mood. » (France)
►
« France is the most difficult market. Overall the high HP tractors will face a difficult situation
in North America. » (Italy)
►
« It looks like dairy farmers have frozen most investments decisions. They are waiting for the
quota system to end and milk prices to increase. We bet on the second half of the year to
make the budget. » (The Netherlands)
►
« The market trend will obviously be influenced by the four elections we have within the
country this year – whether there will be any subsidies for the modernization of the machinery
park or not. But we think that in all case the (national) market will go up. » (Spain)
►
« Exchange rates and commodity prices are impacting hard on our farmers directly and
indirectly. Similarly the dealers are feeling the pressure of the strong Pound/weak Euro on
both second hand prices and on potentially devalued new stock. » (United Kingdom)
16 March 2015
Page 11
Contact: Gerd.Wiesendorfer@vdma.org