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Preparing for Climate Changes Along the U.S.
Preparing for Climate Changes Along the U.S.-Mexico Border CPAS Workshop – 26 March 2015 – Las Cruces, NM Gregg Garfin, The University of Arizona • • • • Water Co-production Services Collaboration North American Climate Services Partnership Foundational Capabilities • Forecasts / monitoring • Precipitation Thematic Areas • Drought • Wildfires Regional Pilot Areas • Great Lakes • Rio Grande-Bravo Audra Melton Río Grande Plumbing Natural Contributions Upper Watershed Agriculture Evaporation M&I The Big Bend Audra Melton Diagram: Mark Briggs, WWF U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and Rio Grande Regional Water Authority. 2013. Lower Rio Grande Basin Study. Denver, Colorado. John Neilsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Area-Averaged Precipitation John Neilsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Area-Averaged Temperature John Neilsen-Gammon, Texas A&M SUMMER SPRING Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Big Bend N.P., Original source: Jack Schmidt, University of Utah Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Big Bend N.P., Original source: Jack Schmidt, University of Utah Geomorphic Change Rio Grande/Rio Bravo Johnson Ranch Eddy Sand Bars Hotsprings, 1936 1945 • Channel spans entire width of bedrock walls • Alternating sand bars • Active eddy 2008 • Floodplain surface inset within bedrock walls • Steep, high banks completely colonized by tamarisk • Eddy has filled with sediment and is colonized by giant cane Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Big Bend N.P., Original source: Dean and Schmidt, 2011; 2013 Channel sedimentation alters aquatic and riparian habitat Hotsprings, 1936 • Fewer backwaters • Deeper pools • Changing substrate – loss of sandy bottoms • Larger debris fans at tributary mouths, gravel accumulation • Steeper, faster riffles • Wider, more continuous riparian forest (exotic species) • Rising flood stage • Decreased hyporheic exchange and complex biogeochemical environment Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Big Bend N.P. Woodhouse, C. A., D. W. Stahle, and J. Villanueva Diaz. 2012. Rio Grande and Rio Conchos water supply variability over the past 500 years. Climate Research 51:147. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and Rio Grande Regional Water Authority. 2013. Lower Rio Grande Basin Study. Denver, Colorado. Photo: Daniel Griffin, University of Arizona Optimal Control Optimal Control Outcomes A B C D Scenario Planning Elements Common to A-D Elements Common to A-C Possible Futures Elements Common to A-B A B C D 26 March 2015 - CPAS - NM Holly C. Hartmann Consulting Volatility Uncertainty Complexity Ambiguity 26 March 2015 - CPAS - NM Holly C. Hartmann, Consulting Ralph P. Marra, SWR Consulting 26 March 2015 - CPAS - NM Photo source: Getty http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/10/02/zero-hours-contracts-_n_4028635.html 26 March 2015 - CPAS - NM https://www.flickr.com/photos/gorillasushi/3164059182/ Peterson et al., 2003. Conservation Biology 26 March 2015 - CPAS - NM high Speculations Complexity Explorations Scenarios Projections Forecasts & Predictions Facts low low Uncertainty high Adapted from Zurek and Henrichs, 2007 Challenge thinking about the future. Foster strategic thinking. Adapted from Holly C. Hartmann Consulting Optimal Control vs. Scenario Planning Optimal Control Outcomes A B C D Scenario Planning Elements Common to A-D Elements Common to A-C Possible Futures Elements Common to A-B A B C D 26 March 2015 - CPAS - NM Holly C. Hartmann, Consulting Ralph P. Marra, SWR Consulting Optimal Control vs. Scenario Planning Optimal Control Outcomes A B C D Scenario Planning Elements Common to A-D Elements Common to A-C Possible Futures Elements Common to A-B A B C D 26 March 2015 - CPAS - NM Holly C. Hartmann, Consulting http://cpo.noaa.gov/AboutCPO/AllNews/TabId/315/ArtMID/668/ArticleID/111446/ScenarioPlanning-for-Climate-Adaptation-workshop-along-the-USMexico-border.aspx PESTLE Political Economic Social Technological Legal Environmental Administration change New energy infrastructure Public awareness of drought New “plumbing” International water treaties Invasive species changes Drivers of Change Critical Uncertainties High/High UNCERTAINTY IMPACT Increased public awareness E-flow science Treaty/Legal Agriculture change/economics Water intensive economic activity • Recharge • Precipitation UNCERTAINTY • • • • • • Decreased federal funding • Invasive species • 100-year river flood IMPACT Scenario Matrices & Impacts DRIVER 2 DRIVER 1 Scenario Matrices & Impacts Early Precipitation More Monsoon Onset Less Late Early Disappointment Banana Republic Precipitation Death Valley More Monsoon Onset Less Head for the Hills Late Amplify Challenges Incorrect Outside Factors Affecting E-flow Understanding of the System Correct Moderate Challenges Amplify Challenges Grasping at Straws Luck of The Draw Understanding of the System Outside Factors Affecting E-flow Incorrect All Dressed Up… Correct Let’s Get to Work Moderate Challenges Nested Matrices Social-Ecological CLIMATE Luck of the Draw + Head for the Hills 2015-2035 • Increasing storage • Less resource conflict • Increasing unintended consequences 2035-2055 2055-2075 • Increased • Groundwater storage and surface • Increased water surplus • Novel flooding ecosystems maladaptive (scrub) flood control initiatives • Invasive species Implications Categories IBWC/CILA Emergency Management NGOs Luck of the Draw/Head for the Hills Increased flood operations; Increased operation and management of levees; greater commitment to treaty More resources spent on more floods; repeated emergency response If reset flows generate positive effects, then NGO stays, if not… National Park Service More budget stress; more stress on human resources; riparian invasives Flow Chart for Using Forecasts Situational Assessment Outlook Available? Yes Relevant Metrics No Sufficient Skill? No Vulnerability Assessment Forecast support Decision makers Decision makers and Forecast support 26 March 2015 - CPAS - NM No Skill or No Signal - Local, New Studies - Assess Broad Range of Past Conditions Prepare for All Conditions -Problems/Opportunities: thresholds, past frequency & variability -Mitigation of negatives -Positioning for positives Yes Proportionally Prepare for : - Correct Forecast - Incorrect Forecast - Forecast ‘Bust’ Holly C. Hartmann Consulting Opportunities http://www.nature.org/ourinitiatives/regions/ northamerica/areas/coloradoriver/coloradoriver-delta-pulse-flow-reaches-the-sea.xml The future is not a magnification of current challenges. Holly C. Hartmann Consulting Pagano, 2008 Gregg Garfin School of Natural Resources and Institute of the Environment The University of Arizona gmgarfin@email.arizona.edu 520-626-4372 Acknowledgments and References • • • • • • David Brown, NOAA NCEI (co-chair North American Climate Services Partnership Rio Grande Basin Pilot Project) Meredith Muth, NOAA CPO (North American Climate Services Partnership, U.S. Coordinator) Holly Hartmann (Holly C. Hartmann Consulting – Scenario Planning) Dean, DJ and Schmidt JC. 2013. The geomorphic effectiveness of a large flood on the Rio Grande in the Big Bend region: Insights on geomorphic controls and post-flood geomorphic response. Geomorphology 201: 183-198. Dean, D.J., Schmidt, J.C., 2011. The role of feedback mechanisms in historic channel changes of the lower Rio Grande in the Big Bend region. Geomorphology 126, 333–349. Peterson, G. D., G. S. Cumming, and S. R. Carpenter. 2003. Scenario planning: a tool for conservation in an uncertain world. Conservation Biology 17:358-366. 26 March 2015 - CPAS - NM
