IKB-DEF-MAY 17, 2015 - Indicia Research & Advisory

Indicia Knowledge Brief
A Daily Assessment on Indian Defence and Internal/Homeland Security
May 17, 2015.
Primary aims of Indicia Daily Brief are two-fold. First, it distills infinite information into a
capsule form, thus saving precious time of its clients. Second, it tries to link micro-events
to larger strategic canvas through its analyses, thus providing support knowledge for
better understanding and decision-making.
Indicia Analysis of the Day
French team constituted to negotiate the Rafale deal has arrived in India
and talks can start anytime now, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar
rightly described the agreement as "one of the bold initiatives" of the
Modi government.
The Rs.2,900-crore deal to procure M-777 Ultra-Light Howitzers (ULH)
from the U.S. through the foreign military Sales (FMS) route will lead to
investments of over $200 million under offset requirements.
I. National Defence and Security:
French team arrives in India to negotiate Rafale deal with defence
ministry:
French team constituted to negotiate the Rafale deal has arrived in India and
talks can start anytime now, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said today as he
described the agreement as "one of the bold initiatives" of the Modi government.
Parrikar said India has constituted a committee headed by Air Marshal SBP Sinha
to hold negotiations with the French team. "The negotiations on Rafale deal can
start anytime from now. Indian government has already formed a committee
headed by Air Marshal Sinha. The team from France already arrived in India on
May 12 to start the negotiations," he told reporters. Defence Minister Manohar
Parrikar. PTIDefence Minister Manohar Parrikar. PTI. India is to buy 36 Rafale
fighter jets in flyaway condition from France after Prime Minister Narendra Modi
and French President Francois Hollande last month agreed to conclude an InterGovernmental Agreement bypassing the protracted negotiations for purchase of
126 such jets. The two countries had decided to form committees to take
forward the negotiations. "The signing of agreement for Rafale purchase was one
of the bold decisions taken by the government. We signed the deal for better
price, better than earlier," he said. A joint statement issued after Modi-Hollande
talks had said the two leaders agreed to conclude an Inter-Governmental
Agreement for supply of the aircraft on terms that would be "better" than that
conveyed as part of a separate process underway. It was an apparent reference
to the talks that kicked off in 2012 for the sale of 126 Rafale fighter jets for $12
billion. The deal had been bogged down over cost and Dassault Aviation's
reluctance to stand guarantee for 108 planes to be made by state-run Hindustan
Aeronautics Limited (HAL). Talking about various initiatives taken by his
ministry in the last one year, Parrikar said, "One Rank-One Pension (OROP)
proposal is reaching finality." Asked about CAG's report on India's battlereadiness, he said,"The report about India’s low preparedness to fight the war is
old one, dating back to March 2013. After that we have improved our
preparedness by almost 50 per cent." About the government auditor's
contention that India's ammunition stock would not last even a few days in the
event of a war, Parrikar said, ordnance production had also improved over the
past year. He said the Defence Ministry has delisted 65 per cent of the items,
making them free for manufacturing and export. The minister said the impact of
raising FDI limit in defence to 49 per cent will also be seen in the years to come.
Source: http://www.firstpost.com/india/french-team-arrives-india-negotiate-rafale-deal-defence-ministry2248122.html
*
Military plane, chopper deals to kick-start aero industry's
ecosystem: Parrikar:
Clearance of the Rs.11,930 crore Airbus-TATA consortium bid to manufacture 56
transport aircraft for the IAF and of a Russian firm's bid to build 200 advanced
military helicopters will kick-start the aero industry ecosystem in India,
especially for aviation parts, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said on
Saturday. Parrikar, who was speaking to reporters at a press conference at BJP's
state headquarters here, also said there was a shortage of around 500
helicopters across the Indian military wings. "From this, aero ecosystem,
especially which relates to manufacture of aviation parts will get a boost... It will
provide a kick-start to the private aviation industry," the minister said. He also
said that 14 of the Indian Air Force (IAF) transport planes to be purchased from
Airbus-Tata would be in fly-away condition while the remaining 42 would be
manufactured in India. "For them, 50 percent (or) more parts will be
indigenous," Parrikar said, adding that the proportion of indigenous parts would
go above 50 percent in time. Parrikar also said that considering the shortfall of as
many as 500 helicopters in the Indian Army and the IAF, there would be no
compromise on the manufacture of Dhruv helicopters by the defence ministryoperated aviation company Hindustan Aeronautics Limited in Bengaluru. He said
it even as the Defence Acquisition Council on Thursday approved the offer of a
Russian defence manufacturing firm to build 200 advanced twin-engine Kamov
helicopters for the Indian armed forces. "There will be no compromise on HAL's
Dhruv. We need quantity from them too. Army and Air Force need many more
helicopters. In fact, the shortage is almost around 500," Parrikar said, adding that
around 250 Chetak and Cheetah helicopters used by the Indian military were
around 30 years old. Speaking about the helicopter deal, Parrikar said the Indian
government was dealing with Russia directly over the issue and that while 60
choppers would be purchased directly "rest of the 140 will be manufactured
here under the Make in India programme". "As a result, an eco-system for
helicopters will be created," Parrikar said.
Source: http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/military-plane-chopper-deals-to-kick-startaero-industry-s-ecosystem-parrikar-115051600942_1.html
*
Defence Manufacturing and “Make in India” – What will it take?
A report by Reuters dated 8th April has questioned “Make in India” in the
defence sector, that it only remains on paper by saying “In a major blow to Prime
Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘make in India’ drive to wean the country off imported
arms, Indian firms have spurned some $15 billion worth of government tenders
to make a range of weapons since 2013.” The Reuters report says, “one problem
is that some military officers eye technology only available in the west, without
understanding what Indian firms can produce” and goes on to quote a scholar at
the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi observing that the armed forces are
reluctant to accept hardware that doesn’t have a record in operational conditions
and Indian companies have no track record. The blame has been passed on to the
armed forces in such a beautiful and subtle fashion that the unsuspecting public
would never guess the truth. Most would believe that these military guys with all
the spit and polish only want fancy foreign armaments. But let us take the case of
the Bofors. These guns were procured complete with the package of Transfer of
Technology (ToT) on which the DRDO and the Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) sat
for over 30 years. During the Kargil Conflict, the 400 guns imported had to be
cannibalised to at least make 100 guns operational. For not using the ToT, a
flimsy excuse is being given that Army never asked for it. But then CAG reports
say that numerous projects have been undertaken by the DRDO without MoD
approval and in fact in one particular year only 10% projects had MoD approval.
Now this googly that, “the armed forces are reluctant to accept hardware that
doesn’t have a record in operational conditions” why would the armed forces not
accept hardware that is successful in trials that are always done under
operational conditions as standard procedure? The recent example is the
indigenous Dhanush howitzer that has successfully completed trials. It is
common knowledge that India imports 70% of its defence needs but public
would be unaware that the Ministry of Commerce and Industry acknowledges
50% of weapons and equipment held by our military is “obsolete”. To cap this,
CAG states that balance 30% of defence items produced indigenously are “substandard”. Would the public know that in 1995 (when too we were meeting 70%
of our defence requirements through import), Dr Abdul Kalam headed a review
committee that directed we must indigenously meet 70% of our defence needs
by 2014. However, when stock was taken 19 years later, in 2014, we had not
moved one inch forward. The irony is that this remained the state despite Joint
Secretaries of the MoD on all Boards of the DRDO-DPSUs-OF. There were
obviously no government directions, no checks and balances and no mid course
corrections.....
Source: http://www.niticentral.com/2015/05/17/arms-mafia-strikes-313630.html
*
Weapon deals to help boost artillery power of the Army:
The Rs.2,900-crore deal to procure M-777 Ultra-Light Howitzers (ULH) from the
U.S. through the foreign military Sales (FMS) route will lead to investments of
over $200 million under offset requirements. This deal and other gun upgrades
will boost the Army’s firepower, which is critically short of guns, and will give an
impetus to the ‘Make in India’ initiative. “This envisages investments in
approximately 40 Indian defence suppliers across the country as well as an offer
to establish an Assembly Integration & Test facility for the weapon system in
India in partnership with an Indian industrial company,” John Kelly of BAE
Systems told The Hindu. Punj Lloyd, one of the companies in the race, confirmed
that evaluation of proposals was being carried out. “Punj Lloyd has received an
RFQ from BAE Systems and we have responded to the same. We are awaiting
their response,” Ashok Wadhawan of Punj Lloyd told The Hindu.
Dhanush set for induction
Meanwhile, the indigenously upgraded Bofors gun ‘Dhanush’ is all set for
induction with all evaluations successfully completed. The upgrade was done by
the Ordinance Factory Board based on the design of the original Bofors gun
acquired in the 1980’s and is 80 per cent indigenous. The Army has already
placed an order for 114 guns and expressed interest for 300 more. A third
process for upgrade of 300 of the Army’s 130mm guns to 155mm by the private
sector is ongoing. Several companies have been given guns for testing and
upgrade and user evaluation is likely to take place by year end, industry sources
informed.....
Source:
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/weapon-deals-to-help-boost-artillery-power-of-thearmy/article7215007.ece?homepage=true
*
Isro Set to Test 'Made in India' Multi-Object Tracking Radar Next
Month:
The Indian space agency is set to test its sophisticated, indigenously-built, multiobject tracking radar (MOTR) on a rocket flight next month while formal
commissioning is expected to take three months time, said a senior official. "The
MOTR designed and developed by Satish Dhawan Space Centre (SDSC) will be
tested next month during a PSLV (Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle) rocket flight.
The formal commissioning of the system is expected to happen three months
down the line," SDSC director M.Y.S. Prasad told reporters in Sriharikota. The
space scientists with justifiable pride were showcasing the state-of-the art radar
that can track 10 objects simultaneously objects up to 30cm by 30cm at distance
of 800 km. In case of objects of 50cm by 50 cm size, the radar can track at a slant
range of 1,000 km. "The Rs. 245 crores MOTR can be termed as the classic
example of a 'Make in India' project," Prasad said. According to him, a similar
radar would cost around Rs. 800 crores in the international markets and is
mainly used for defence purposes. "The software for operating the system and
analysing the data was developed in-house and around Rs. 100 crores value
could be put for that," said V.Seshagiri Rao, the former project director. To the
best of his knowledge only select group of countries have the capacity to build
such radars in the world, Prasad said. Prasad said Raythaeon, Northrop
Grumman, Lockheed Martin, of the US, Thales, Canada-Europe, Elta of Israel and
NEC of Japan have the capability to make such systems. With this radar, Isro
acquires the capacity to handle its future missions involving atmospheric reentry of space modules, having a protective eye on its space assets and track
space debris. Currently Isro uses the space debris data provided by US space
agency Nasa. The commissioning of MOTR would provide real time data for Isro.
"The project got the green signal in 2012 with a target to get the radar ready by
February 2015 which was achieved," Prasad said.....
Source: http://gadgets.ndtv.com/science/news/isro-set-to-test-made-in-india-multi-object-tracking-radarnext-month-692895
*
Defence Ministry revived in one year of Modi Sarkar:
The one year of NDA government has not only revived the coal and the telecom
sector with their auctions, but has also brought relief to the defense sector, with
clearance being given to nearly 40 new defence acquisition proposals, worth
over Rs 1 lakh crore. When compared to the UPA's regime, this is in stark
contradiction to the pace with which A K Antony's department cleared files. The
'Make in India' pitch by PM Modi has attracted a lot of attention and several top
notch defence manufacturers have shown interest in setting up a manufacturing
unit in India. There has been swift decision making at the top level, especially
after the appointment of Manohar Parrikar as the Defence Minister. However,
there are things which are yet to be sorted out. The defence procurement policy
(DPP) is still not formulated. A committee has been appointed with Dhirendra
Singh and former MoD director-general of acquisitions Satish Agnihotri as
members are looking at DPP. According to media reports, the policy shall be
finalised by July. Institutions like DRDO has been facing the pressure of delivery,
as Narendra Modi is personally looking into the defence deals and related
manufacturing. The FDI in the sector has also been increased to 49%, which
although has not shown major investments from companies, is poised to be
game-changer for the sector.
Source:
http://www.indiainfoline.com/article/news-top-story/defence-ministry-revived-in-one-year-ofmodi-sarkar-115051600610_1.html
*
CSL offers to build another aircraft carrier:
Amidst report of the Defence Acquisition Council granting Rs.30 crore to the
Indian Navy to start working on a second indigenous aircraft carrier, it has
emerged that Cochin Shipyard Limited (CSL), which is constructing the first
indigenous carrier INS Vikrant, has urged the Navy to place an order with it for a
follow-on carrier of Vikrant-class. Vikrant is set for undocking from CSL’s
building bay later this month.
CSL assurance
The CSL is learnt to have assured the Navy in end-2014 that in case a follow-on
order for a carrier is placed, it would be able to deliver the vessel in just four
years from the time of delivery of INS Vikrant, scheduled to take place in 2018.
The Navy has not responded to the proposal yet. “A follow-on carrier would be
advantageous for the Navy, as there would be no time lost on detailed design,
development of specialised material, technology, honing of skills of the
workforce and so on. Since the Navy desires to operate two carrier task forces at
any given time, it would be a good option to exercise,” said a CSL official. “The
carrier INS Viraat is retiring [next year] and the refurbished 45,000-tonne INS
Vikramaditya [undergoing a short refit now] will be joined by the 40,000-tonne
INS Vikrant a few years from now. Should there be a second Vikrant-class carrier
with the same specifications and equipment, it could be operationalised in early
or mid-2020s. It makes perfect sense as two carriers would always be
operational even as the third remained under refit,” he added. The lead time
taken for the construction of INS Vikrant was in sync with the global average of
nine years, said another official. “The follow-on vessels of a class always take
much shorter periods to deliver,” he contended. However, a senior Navy officer
told The Hindu that the force had firmed up the plans to have a super carrier
displacing 65,000 tonnes after Vikrant. It would most likely be nuclearpropelled, with an electromagnetic aircraft launch system, widely referred to as
EMALS catapult, and would embark a whole new fleet of naval fighters, he said.
CSL’s proposed larger dry-dock capable of taking on ships of any size would be
ready by the time the Navy floats the tender for a second carrier.
Source:
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/kerala/csl-offers-to-build-another-aircraftcarrier/article7212380.ece
*
Talks on Rafale deal should have started: Parrikar:
Initial discussions between the Indian and French sides over the purchase of
Rafale fighter jets "should have started" already, defence minister Manohar
Parrikar said here on Saturday. Parrikar, who was addressing a press conference
at the party's state headquarters, also said the current Defence Procurement
Procedure was a "very cumbersome process" and that it required a bold
initiative by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to seal the Rafale deal with the
French government. "On May 13, our committee was formed, which is headed by
(deputy chief of Air staff) Air Marshal (SBP) Sinha from our side and his officers.
Not negotiations, from today talks should have started," Parrikar said. He
lamented that because of the current Defence Procurement Procedure, India
could not buy a fighter plane for over 15 years. "The exercise started in 2000 and
could not be concluded even by 2015. For 15 years we did not buy a single plane.
So we took a very bold initiative and Modi decided to buy it directly with a better
price and on better terms. What they are will be revealed in a month or two,"
Parrikar said, adding that speeding up the process was necessary. "We took it on
a fast track. That was necessary," Parrikar said. Prime Minister Modi during his
visit to France in April signed an agreement to buy 36 Rafale fighter jets for $6
billion.
Source:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Talks-on-Rafale-deal-should-have-startedParrikar/articleshow/47310147.cms
II
Homeland Security
*
India likely to consider another security review after Afghanistan
terror attack:
A piece of "highly credible" intelligence input received four months ago that
indicated preparations for a "spectacular attack" on Indian assets in Afghanistan
had put the country's security brass on high alert and led to a comprehensive
security review. Security agencies are looking at Wednesday's attack in Kabul, in
which four Indians were killed, in this perspective and another review is likely.
The input received earlier this year stood out because it included a specific
communication intercept picked up from Rawalpindi, Pakistan, stressing the
need to target Indian assets in Afghanistan, said officials familiar with the matter.
Intelligence officials said the "chatter" put the needle of suspicion on the Haqqani
network. Once the veracity of this input was established, alarm bells went off in
New Delhi. A hijack alert was sounded for the daily Air India flight to Kabul and
extra security checks were added at the Kabul airport. A high-level team was
sent to Afghanistan in early February for a thorough review of the security
arrangements. The team comprised representatives from Intelligence Bureau,
Research & Analysis Wing — India's premier external intelligence agency, and
the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) — the paramilitary outfit deployed to
secure Indian assets in Afghanistan. The team not only reviewed the security of
the Indian embassy and the personal security of the ambassador, but also
surveyed arrangements for the Afghan parliament building, which is being built
by India. The members also visited Indian consulates and key project sites such
as Salma dam, where India is the main executing agency. Following the review,
the Air India office in Kabul is being shifted closer to the embassy in Wazir Akbar
Khan, the city's most fortified area that houses high-profile foreign
establishments. The security review, however, did not cover guesthouses
frequented by Indians as the input made no specific mention.
Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-likely-to-consider-another-security-review-afterAfghanistan-terror-attack/articleshow/47307420.cms
*
Army Chief General Dalbir Singh reviews situation in Nagaland:
Army Chief General Dalbir Singh today took stock of the security situation in
Nagaland. During a two-day visit, which ended today, Singh visited Rangapahar
Military station in Dimapur, the headquarters of the Spear Corps, Army officers
said. The Chief of Army Staff, accompanied by his wife Namita Shuag, was
received by Lt Gen M M S Rai, GOC-in-C of Eastern Command and was briefed on
the prevailing security situation in the Corps Zone as also on the operational
preparedness of the Spear Corps, they said. The Army Chief appreciated the
state of preparedness and people friendly conduct of counter insurgency
operations, the officials said adding, General Singh also interacted with the
troops.
Source:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/army-chief-general-dalbir-singh-reviewssituation-in-nagaland/articleshow/47311146.cms
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