The Week Ahead - CIBC World Markets

Transcription

The Week Ahead
April 20-24, 2015
ECONOMICS
Avery Shenfeld
(416) 594-7356
avery.shenfeld@cibc.ca
Benjamin Tal
(416) 956-3698
benjamin.tal@cibc.ca
Andrew Grantham
(416) 956-3219
andrew.grantham@cibc.ca
Nick Exarhos
(416) 956-6527
nick.exarhos@cibc.ca
For Ontario, Now Is the Time
by Avery Shenfeld
Ontario has been coping with a rising debt
burden for years, but since the 2008/09
recession, it’s been handcuffed by a soft
economy in terms of how quickly it could
address that challenge. Earlier in this cycle,
the province judged that more abrupt cuts
in spending or broader tax hikes would have
risked taking the economy off course from
what was still a fragile recovery, one that
was trailing that of the country as a whole.
Keynes would have agreed.
But finally, now is the time to tackle deficit
reduction head on. The signposts are
emerging that the province, while not yet
at full employment, is on a much sounder
footing, running well ahead of the pack on
several key indicators (Chart). Ontario’s time
has come.
A fiscal tightening will still be a drag on
growth, as it always is. But for 2015,
there are some nice tailwinds. Cheaper
gasoline will provide a cushion for household
spending. A Canadian dollar closer to fair
value should be supportive for exports,
and over time, help the province defend
its existing plants and attract new ones.
Ontario’s economy has historically been by
far the most leveraged to improvements
stateside. While the US suffered through a
sluggish Q1, brisk American hiring suggests
that employers are optimistic about what lies
ahead in the balance of the year.
“Ontario’s time
has come.”
No single budget can erase a deficit of more
than $10 bn. Even a three-year path to a
balance will require tough medicine. That
goes beyond asset sales that will reduce
Ontario’s gross borrowing requirements
http://research.cibcwm.
com/res/Eco/EcoResearch.
html
CIBC World Markets Inc.
CIBC
World
Markets
•
for infrastructure projects. While useful
in supporting provincial spreads, such
transactions don’t address the fundamental
need to bring program spending and
revenues into better alignment.
Those who have worried about Ontario’s
fiscal fate should take a bit more comfort
in signals that growth has returned. Fiscal
probity should be assessed not just by
comparing debts to current GDP, but also by
their ratio to where GDP will be five or ten
years out.
Ontario’s working age population is growing,
and could even pick up a bit if economic
success draws in-migration. If the province
can average nominal GDP growth of 4% in
the next half-decade that would put Ontario
in better shape than jurisdictions to its east,
where the 15-64 year old population has
declined in every province in the past year,
and in some cases, in the past several years.
You can’t just grow your way out of debt,
but growth is a big plus.
Ontario is Well Ahead of the Pack
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Yr/Yr % (3m avg)
Ontario
PO Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada
M5J 2S8
Corp
300
Madison
Avenue,
New
York,
NY
10017
•
•
Rest of Canada
•
Bloomberg @ CIBC
(212)
856-4000,
•
(416) 594-7000
(800)
999-6726
Friday
April 24
Thursday
April 23
Wednesday
April 22
Tuesday
April 21
Monday
April 20
`
CIBC
(Feb) (M)
1.0%
Speaker: 10:30 AM Stephen S. Poloz (Governor)
H, M, L = High, Medium or Low Significance
ONTARIO BUDGET
CANADIAN FEDERAL BUDGET
AUCTION: 2-YR CANADAS $3.6B
8:30 AM
WHOLESALE TRADE M/M
Speaker: 10:05 AM Stephen S. Poloz (Governor)
AUCTION: 3-M BILLS $7.4B, 6-M BILLS $2.8B, 1-YR BILLS $2.8B
CASH MANAGEMENT BUYBACK (Jun'15 - Jun'16) - $1.0B
CANADA
-3.1%
Prior
(Mar)
(Mar)
(H)
(H)
Consensus Source: Bloomberg
8:30 AM
DURABLE GOODS ORDERS M/M
DURABLE GOODS ORDERS EX-TRANS M/M
(H)
(H)
520K
-3.5%
289K
5.03M
3.1%
0.5%
0.5%
0.6%
0.3%
510K
-5.4%
(Mar)
(Mar)
5.10M
4.5%
0.1%
10:00 AM
NEW HOME SALES SAAR
NEW HOME SALES M/M
(L)
(H)
(M)
(M)
(L)
(M)
Consensus
56.0
(Apr 11)
(Apr 18)
(Mar)
(Mar)
(Apr 17)
(Mar)
CIBC
9:45 AM
MARKIT US MANUFACTURING PMI Preliminary
8:30 AM
CONTINUING CLAIMS
INITIAL CLAIMS
10:00 AM
EXISTING HOME SALES SAAR
EXISTING HOME SALES M/M
7:00 AM
MBA-APPLICATIONS
AUCTION: 4-WEEK BILLS $30B (prev)
8:30 AM
CHICAGO FED NAT.ACTIVITY INDEX
AUCTION: 3-M BILLS $24B, 6-M BILLS $24B
UNITED STATES
SAAR = Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Consensus
-1.4%
-0.6%
539K
7.8%
55.7
2268K
294K
4.88M
1.2%
-2.3%
-0.1%
Prior
Week Ahead Calendar And Forecast
The Week Ahead—April 20-24, 2015
Week Ahead’s Market Call
by Avery Shenfeld
In the US, markets will have one eye on the Greek situation in Europe, but will
also be getting further insights into the picture of the American economy as a soft
Q1 came to a close. Much of the data will be housing related, with existing home
sales now essentially eclipsed as an indicator by the advance readings we get from
pending sales. We should start to do better on core durable orders, although the
latter’s bounce will still leave the quarter looking ugly, affected by the strong US dollar
and capital spending softness in the mining, oil and gas sector.
In Canada, it’s all about fiscal policy. The headlines from both the Federal and Ontario
budgets have already been released, so now its about how it all adds up in the bottom
line. Ottawa still has room to announce measures that kick in come 2016/17, where
there is more revenue elbow room left. Ontario promised a “progressive” budget, and
is now into the years in which it earlier pledged to bring deficits down at a faster clip.
3
There are no Key Canadian Numbers this week.
4
Week Ahead’s Key US Number:
%
Durable Goods Orders—March
25
(Friday, 8:30 a.m.)
20
US Durable Goods Orders
m/m %
change (L)
y/y % change
(R)
15
Andrew Grantham (416) 956-3219
10
5
Durable goods, m/m
ex transportation, m/m
0.5%
0.5%
0.6%
0.3%
25
20
0
-15
-20
30
5
-10
-1.4%
-0.6%
35
10
-5
CIBC MktPrior
40
15
0
%
-5
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
-10
Mar-15F
Forecast Implications—Given the strength of the
US$, manufacturing, exports and investment should be
expected to provide less of a lift to growth than they
did earlier in the recovery. Some weaker trends in these
areas wouldn’t be too much of a concern if we saw
clearer signs that consumer spending was accelerating
to compensate.
The US economy has seen a slower thaw from February’s
freeze than we had expected, and March’s durable goods
orders could show a similarly slow recovery. Aircraft
orders, generally a volatile element on a month-to-month
basis, are unlikely to provide much direction either way
for headline orders in March.
And while ex-transport orders could see a little bit of a
bounce following some extremely disappointing figures
earlier in the year, evidence from recent industry surveys
suggests that manufacturers continue to struggle against
a strong US$. As such our forecast is for matching, but
modest, 0.5% gains in both headline and ex-transport
orders.
Market Impact—We are close to the consensus in what
is always a volatile series.
5
Equity Insights
Nick Exarhos
Slowing Chinese Production Dents Import Demand
Chinese Industrial Output At Mutli-Year Lows (L),
Curbing Appetite for Metal Volumes (R)
This week brought with it another set of data releases
that highlighted China’s economic deceleration. Though
the year-on-year rate on Q1 GDP came in right in line with
the government’s estimate at 7.0%, industrial output
took a sharp turn lower. The 5.6% annual growth pace
in March is now at levels last seen in the Great Recession.
Chinese policy makers are trying to rotate the economy
toward a more a sustainable growth model centered
on the consumer, but the recent slowing explains why
China’s imports have dropped by 12% over the past
year. After weighting metal import volume data by their
importance in Canadian exports, the picture isn’t pretty
for Canadian material producers.
Chinese Industrial Output
25
YoY, %
20
Cda-Weighted
Chinese Metal Imports
140
Index=100
130
120
15
110
100
10
90
80
Jul-14
Dec-14
Feb-14
Apr-13
Sep-13
Jun-12
Nov-12
3-mo avg
70
Jan-12
13Q1
5.6
15Q1
11Q3
10Q1
08Q3
05Q3
04Q1
0
07Q1
5.7
08Q4
14Q3
5
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
Canadian Banks Not Counting on Perfect Year
TSX Banks Have Cheapened (L),
Lofty Earnings Growth Projected for US Firms* (R)
Our analyst Rob Sedran joked that lately he’s had a major
in banks and a minor in energy. It’s true that the rocky ride
in oil has diminished the upside on financial institutions
reliant on Canadian activity. But PEs on TSX firms are
now roughly the same as those on banks stateside, after
being about half a turn more expensive a few months
ago. And bank stocks on the TSX aren’t counting on
lofty earnings growth further out, unlike banks in the
S&P. If investors become more confident that a bottom’s
been set in crude, improving sentiment on the Canadian
economy could cast a light on the increased attractiveness
of Toronto-listed financial institutions.
12.4
EPS Growth Estimates (%)
14
12.2
12
Bank Sector PE Ratios
10
12.0
8
11.8
6
11.6
4
11.4
2
11.2
11.0
0
TSX
S&P
6 months ago
-2
Now
FY15
FY16
TSX
FY17
S&P
*based on Bloomberg consensus
Finding Equity Yield in a Low-rate World
Some have argued that the current business cycle’s
“secular stagnation”, and the limited organic earnings
growth opportunities that the next few years may hold,
have driven managers—particularly in the US—to sacrifice
productive investment at the expense of financially driven
per share growth. But it appears that in 2014, overall
capital returned to stockholders in the US slightly trailed
what was seen in Canada. Although buybacks have been
more popular stateside, that’s partly driven by differences
in the tax code, not necessarily to cover up lacklustre per
share earnings expansion. With the fall in oil prices likely
to squeeze Canadian corporate coffers more than cashrich US firms, dividend payouts in the S&P could continue
to grow faster than on the TSX.
TSX More Focused On Dividends (L),
Though Cash Rich S&P Seeing Payout Pick Up (R)
Capital Returned To
Shareholders
6
5
% of avg Mkt Cap
12
4
10
3
8
2
6
1
4
0
2
S&P 500
Buybacks
6
Last 12 mo Dividends,
Versus Same Year-Ago Period
(through March)
14
Growth, %
TSX
Dividends
0
S&P 500
TSX
Currency Currents
Andrew Grantham
Raising the Bar by Lowering Projections
New BoC Forecasts Reduce Risk of Disappointment Until
Second Half
By lowering its projections for Q1 GDP, potential growth
and the average oil price over its forecast horizon, the
BoC has set a high bar to further interest rate cuts. And
choosing to up its projection for Q3 more than Q2, the
BoC is signaling a willingness to let the economy ride
through weakness in the first half of the year. While we
are skeptical that the economy will rebound as strongly
and as early as the Bank project in Q3, by that time oil
prices may have more of a cushion above the $50 bbl
level and prevent another rate cut later in the year. While
we see some upside in USDCAD, particularly at the levels
reached this week, that has more to do with broad US$
strength as the Fed starts hiking.
3.0
% SAAR
Jan MPR
Apr MPR
CIBC
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2014 Q4
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2014 Q4
Source: Bank of Canada, CIBC
Times Aren’t A-Changin’…Yet
Scope For Housing to Rebound, Particularly in Northeast
(L), Retail Sales Picked up Strongly in Q2 2014 (R)
Difference Between Starts
and Permits (6mma)
0
7.0
6.0
Core Retail Sales
(% 3mma annualized)
5.0
-10
2014
4.0
-20
2015
3.0
-30
2.0
-40
1.0
0.0
-1.0
Jun
May
Apr
-2.0
Mar
Jan-15
Mar-15
Nov-14
Jul-14
May-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
-60
Sep-14
Other Regions
Northeast
Feb
-50
Jan
The winds that brought cold weather and snow to many
areas of the US may have disappeared, but the winds of
change haven’t blown quite as strongly over the March
economic data as we had expected. That doesn’t mean
they won’t. There’s still plenty of scope for housing
starts to strengthen, given the recent gap with permit
applications particularly in the storm-hit Northeast. And
the trend in retail sales isn’t that much different from
that witnessed last year, when better weather brought a
healthy rebound in Q2. While we shouldn’t give up on
expectations of a healthy Q2 for US growth, Fed officials
may want to see more concrete evidence before hiking. A
hike in July, rather than June as we previously anticipated,
could slightly delay the next leg higher in the US$.
Source: BEA, CIBC
Service Sector Inflation Confirms Eurozone Weakness,
Canada Doesn’t Need Further Stimulus
The Slack (or Not) Shown by Service Inflation
Inflation rates, even at the core level, can be heavily
influenced by external factors and don’t always provide
a good indication of the degree of slack domestically.
Sometimes, looking at just service sector inflation can
give a better indication. It’s no great surprise that in the
Eurozone service sector inflation is very low, both in
respect to other countries and also to its pre-recession
norm. There’s not much to choose between the others.
Interestingly, service sector inflation in Canada is not just
close to that seen in the US and UK, but also close to its
pre-recession average—another reason why we see little
need for a further ease by the Bank at this stage.
4.5
Services CPI (% Yr/Yr)
4.0
Pre-Recession Avg
3.5
Recession Low
3.0
Latest
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
7
US
Cda
EZ
UK
Source: BLS, Statistics Canada, Eurostat, ONC. CIBC
CANADIAN RELEASE AND EVENT DATES
April/May 2015
MONDAY
TUESDAY
13
WEDNESDAY
14
THURSDAY
15
FRIDAY
16
SURVEY OF
MANUFACTURING
8:30 AM
SHIPMENTS
M
Y
DEC 2.15.3
JAN -3.01.8
FEB -1.7-1.5
Bank of Canada
Interest Rate Announcement
INT’L TRANSACTIONS
IN SECURITIES C$BN, NET
8:30 AM
BONDS MONEY S
TOCKSTOT
MARKET
DEC-8.5 2.0 -7.0 -13.5
JAN
10.5
-5.81.05.8
FEB
9.9
-2.21.69.3
Bank of Canada
Monetary Policy Report
BoC Governor Poloz and
Sr. Dep. Gov. Wilkins
attend press conference
at 11:15 AM ET
20
BoC Governor Poloz
participates in panel in
NYC at 10:05 AM ET
21
22
23
WHOLESALE TRADE
8:30 AM
24
BoC Governor Poloz
participates in panel in
DC at 10:30 AM ET
Canadian Federal Budget
27
17
RETAIL TRADE
8:30 AM (Current$)
MY
DEC -1.83.7
JAN -1.41.3
FEB 1.72.5
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
8:30 AM
M(NSA)
Y
JAN -0.21.0
FEB 0.91.0
MAR 0.71.2
28
29
INDUSTRIAL PRICES
8:30 AM
M(NSA)
Y
JAN -0.3-2.1
FEB
1.8-1.6
MAR
30
GDP BY INDUSTRY
8:30 AM
(2002$)
GDPIND.PROD.
MM
DEC0.3 0.4
JAN-0.1 0.4
FEB
1
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT,
EARNINGS & HOURS
8:30 AM
WAGE SETTLEMENTS
10:00 AM (%)
PVT. PUB.TOT.
JAN 2.3 1.41.6
FEB 2.5 2.02.0
MAR
Manitoba
Provincial Budget
4
5
MERCHANDISE TRADE
8:30 AM
$MN
12 MO.
BALANCE
JAN -1,4753,016
FEB
-9841,394
MAR
11
7
6
INTERNATIONAL
RESERVES
8:15 AM
$BN
$BN
CHANGELEVEL
FEB-0.06974.8
MAR 2.91377.7
APR
BUILDING PERMITS ($)
8:30 AM M
M
(RES)(NON-RES)
JAN
-8.1-19.4
FEB
1.5-5.4
MAR
IVEY PURCHASING
MANAGERS’ INDEX
10:00 AM
12
13
14
NEW HOUSING PRICE
INDEX
8:30 AM
8
HOUSING STARTS
8:15 AM
000’s (AR)
TOTAL SINGLES
FEB151 54
MAR190 52
APR
LABOUR
FORCE SURVEY
8:30 AM
AVG
EMPLOYUNEMP HRLY
(HSHOLD) RATEEARN
MY%Y
FEB0.00.7 6.81.7
MAR
0.20.8 6.81.9
APR
15
SURVEY OF
MANUFACTURING
8:30 AM
SHIPMENTS
M
Y
JAN -3.01.8
FEB -1.7-1.5
MAR
INT’L TRANSACTIONS
IN SECURITIES C$BN, NET
8:30 AM
BONDS MONEY S
TOCKSTOT
MARKET
JAN
10.5
-5.81.05.8
FEB
9.9
-2.21.69.3
MAR
All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change
from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets Inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical
data: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Human Resources Development Canada and the Bank of Canada.
8
U.S. RELEASE AND EVENT DATES
April/May 2015
MONDAY
TUESDAY
13
WEDNESDAY
14
RETAIL SALES
8:30 AM
M
Y
JAN -0.83.6
FEB -0.51.9
MAR 0.91.3
PPI (FINISHED GOODS)
8:30 AM M (SA)
Y (NSA)
JAN -2.1-3.1
FEB -0.1-3.4
MAR
THURSDAY
15
CAPACITY UTIL/
IND. PROD.
9:15 AM LEV
M
Y
JAN 79.1-0.4 4.4
FEB 79.00.1 3.5
MAR 78.4-0.6 2.0
FRIDAY
16
HOUSING
STARTS
8:30 AMMIL (AR)
M
JAN 1.072-0.8
FEB 0.908-15.3
MAR0.926 2.0
Beige Book
NET CAPITAL INFLOWS TICS
4:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX
10:00 PM
3,10-Yr NOTE SETTLEMENT
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
30-Yr BOND SETTLEMENT
21
20
S&P/CASE-SHILLER
HOUSE PRICE INDEX
9:00 AM
NEW HOME SALES
10:00 AM
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
29
GDP
8:30 AM (AR)
REAL IMPLICIT
GDPDEFLATOR
14:Q3(F)5.0
1.4
14:Q4(F)2.2
0.2
15:Q1(A)
FACTORY ORDERS
10:00 AM M(SA)
Y(NSA)
JAN -0.7-2.8
FEB
0.2-4.3
MAR
1
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (F)
9:55 AM
ISM MFG SURVEY
10:00 AM COMP.
PRICES
INDEXINDEX
52.935.0
51.539.0
LIGHT VEHICLES
SALES MIL (AR)
Y
JAN
16.5538.9
FEB
16.1625.4
MAR
5
24
DURABLE
GOODS ORDERS
8:30 AM
M
Y
JAN 2.04.7
FEB -1.40.6
MAR
FEB
MAR
APR
PERS. INC & OUT.
10:00 AM SAVING
INCOMECONS RATE
M MAR
JAN0.4-0.2 5.5
FEB0.40.15.8
MAR
FOMC Rate Decision
GOODS &
SERV. BALANCE (BOP) $B
8:30 AM GDS SERV TOT
JAN -62.5 19.9-42.7
FEB -55.2 19.7-35.4
MAR
LEADING INDICATOR
10:00 AM
30
ECI
8:30 AMWAGES &
TOTALSALARY BEN.
14:Q3
0.70.80.6
14:Q4
0.60.50.6
15:Q1
CHICAGO PMI
9:45 AM
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
10:00 AM
4
23
22
28
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (P)
9:55 AM
EXISTING HOME SALES
10:00 AM
27
17
CPI
8:30 AM M(SA)
Y (NSA)
JAN -0.7-0.1
FEB 0.20.0
MAR 0.2-0.1
7
6
ADP SURVEY
8:15 AM
EMPLOY. SITUATION
8:30 AM
NON- CIVAVG
FARMUNEMP HRLY
PAYROLL RATE EARN
(000s)M
%
Y
FEB
2645.51.7
MAR
1265.51.8
APR
NON-FARM
PRODUCTIVITY
8:30 AM Q/Q (AR)
Y/Y
14:Q3 (R)
3.9
1.2
14:Q4 (R)
-2.2
-0.1
15:Q1 (P)
ISM NON-MFG SURVEY
8
CONSUMER CREDIT
3:00 PM
10:00 AM
3,10-Yr NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT
11
30-Yr BOND ANNOUNCEMENT
12
13
RETAIL SALES
8:30 AM
M
Y
FEB -0.51.9
MAR 0.91.3
APR
14
PPI
(FINISHED GOODS)
8:30 AM M (SA)
Y (NSA)
FEB -0.1-3.4
MAR
APR
15
CAPACITY UTIL/
IND. PROD.
9:15 AM LEV
M
Y
FEB 79.00.1 3.5
MAR 78.4-0.6 2.0
APR
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (P)
9:55 AM
TREASURY BUDGET
2:00 PM
3-Yr NOTE AUCTION
NET CAPITAL INFLOWS TICS
4:00 PM
10-Yr NOTE AUCTION
30-Yr BOND AUCTION
3,10-Yr NOTE SETTLEMENT
30-Yr BOND SETTLEMENT
All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change
from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical
data: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and U.S. Federal Reserve Board.
9
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this report to the impact of taxation should not be construed as offering tax advice; as with any transaction having potential tax implications, clients should consult with their own tax advisors. Past performance
is not a guarantee of future results.
The information and any statistical data contained herein were obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that they are accurate or complete, and they should not be relied
upon as such. All estimates and opinions expressed herein constitute judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice.
This report may provide addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, Internet web sites. CIBC has not reviewed the linked Internet web site of any third party and takes no responsibility for the contents thereof. Each
such address or hyperlink is provided solely for the recipient’s convenience and information, and the content of linked third-party web sites is not in any way incorporated into this document. Recipients who
choose to access such third-party web sites or follow such hyperlinks do so at their own risk.
© 2015 CIBC World Markets Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized use, distribution, duplication or disclosure without the prior written permission of CIBC World Markets Inc. is prohibited by law and may result
in prosecution.
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The Week Ahead - CIBC World Markets

Transcription

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