A Good Idea Whose Time Hasn`t Come (The Week Ahead)

The Week Ahead
May 18-22, 2015
A Good Idea Whose Time Hasn’t Come
by Avery Shenfeld
Economics
Avery Shenfeld
(416) 594-7356
avery.shenfeld@cibc.ca
Benjamin Tal
(416) 956-3698
benjamin.tal@cibc.ca
Andrew Grantham
(416) 956-3219
andrew.grantham@cibc.ca
Royce Mendes
(416) 594-7354
royce.mendes@cibc.ca
Nick Exarhos
(416) 956-6527
nick.exarhos@cibc.ca
Is 2% inflation the right target? That’s a
question on which the Bank of Canada has
now opened debate, and unlike what we
saw under John Crow, it’s not about picking
a lower target but a higher one after 2016.
Decades ago, Nobelist George Akerlof
worried that a 2% average inflation rate
would require some prices and wages to
be falling, and that wage stickiness at zero
would instead lead to rising unemployment.
Later, Ken Rogoff argued that the US should
temporarily raise the target to 6% to allow
the ratio of government debt to nominal
GDP to tumble.
The current call for a higher inflation target
has been championed by the IMF’s Olivier
Blanchard. It’s based on the experience of
the last cycle, in which a low inflation pace
going into a recession, and therefore a low
nominal interest rate, left insufficient room
for interest rate cuts before hitting the zero
bound. Sure, you can do QE after that to
lower long rates, but that’s not as powerful
a stimulus tool as dragging down the whole
curve. A higher CPI target would mean that
getting to the same peak real rate would
take nominal rates higher, leaving more
room to stimulate with rate cuts when a
recession hits.
Governor Poloz has indicated a willingness
to discuss Blanchard’s case. Deputy Governor
Agathe Côté, suggested that the bar was
high to change the current system, but a
subsequent speech by Poloz, while citing her
remarks, went on to explain why a higher
inflation target could in theory be better. On
that score, we are soundly in agreement.
But this is likely to be a good idea whose
time hasn’t come, at least not yet. The Fed
under Volker was in its behaviour tolerant of
4% inflation, but with Canada actually one
of those leading the way, the US, Europe,
Australia and other major economies have
coalesced around various 2% definitions.
The risk of being the first to move to 3% or
4% would be that Canada would be seen as
being unusually lax on inflation, and at risk
of picking an even higher inflation target
on the next review. The cost would be an
elevated risk premium on longer bonds, and
while inflation was still low, a higher real rate
for long-term borrowers.
Second, given how low inflation and nominal
rates are now, we might not actually get
the benefit of the higher inflation target in
this cycle. A higher target would push off
the date of the first rate hikes. If the next
recession hit before the overnight rate had
a chance to climb all the way up to 4% or
more, we wouldn’t have had the chance to
accumulate the added room for subsequent
stimulus.
As a result, we put low odds on the Bank
actually moving to a higher inflation target
after 2016. But for bond investors, the
coming months will see a deluge of Bank of
Canada research papers, conferences and
market discussion on that topic. Even the
hint that it’s under review could be one more
factor pushing long term bond yields up, and
extending the recent sell-off in the process.
http://research.
cibcwm.com/res/Eco/
EcoResearch.html
CIBC World Markets Inc. • PO Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 • Bloomberg @ CIBC • (416) 594-7000
C I B C W o r l d M a r k e t s C o r p • 3 0 0 M a d i s o n A v e n u e , N e w Yo r k , N Y 1 0 0 1 7 • ( 2 1 2 ) 8 5 6 - 4 0 0 0 , ( 8 0 0 ) 9 9 9 - 6 7 2 6
Friday
May 22
Thursday
May 21
Wednesday
May 20
Tuesday
May 19
Monday
May 18
`
CIBC
Consensus
(Apr)
(Apr)
(Apr)
(Apr)
(Mar)
(Mar)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(Mar) (M)
0.0%
0.2%
0.9%
2.4%
0.3%
0.7%
0.8%
H, M, L = High, Medium or Low Significance
8:30 AM
CPI M/M
CPI M/M (Bank of Canada core)
CPI Y/Y
CPI Y/Y (Bank of Canada core)
RETAIL TRADE TOTAL M/M
RETAIL TRADE EX-AUTO M/M
8:30 AM
WHOLESALE TRADE M/M
0.1%
0.1%
1.0%
2.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.7%
0.6%
1.2%
2.4%
1.7%
2.0%
-0.4%
Prior
(May)
(May)
(Apr)
(Apr)
(Apr)
9:45 AM
MARKIT US MANUFACTURING PMI Preliminary
10:00 AM
PHILADELPHIA FED
EXISTING HOME SALES SAAR
EXISTING HOME SALES M/M
LEADING INDICATORS M/M
(M)
(M)
(M)
(M)
(L)
(L)
(M)
(L)
(M)
(H)
(L)
5.23M
0.8%
1068K
1050K
CIBC
Speaker: 1:30 PM Richard W. Fisher (Dallas, Vice Chair) and on May 23 at 9:03 AM
Speaker: 7:00 PM John C Williams (San Francisco)
8:30 AM
CPI M/M
(Apr)
(H)
0.1%
CPI M/M (core)
(Apr)
(H)
0.1%
CPI Y/Y
(Apr)
(H)
-0.1%
CPI Y/Y (core)
(Apr)
(H)
1.7%
(May 9)
(May 16)
(Apr)
(May 15)
(Apr)
(Apr)
May-18
Speaker: 3:00 AM Charles L. Evans (Chicago)
8:30 AM
CONTINUING CLAIMS
INITIAL CLAIMS
CHICAGO FED NAT.ACTIVITY INDEX
2:00 PM
Minutes of Apr. 28th-29th FOMC Meeting
7:00 AM
MBA-APPLICATIONS
8:30 AM
HOUSING STARTS SAAR
BUILDING PERMITS SAAR
Speaker: 2:00 AM Charles L. Evans (Chicago)
AUCTION: 4-WEEK BILLS $40B (prev)
10:00 AM
NAHB HOUSING INDEX
AUCTION: 3-M BILLS $24B, 6-M BILLS $241B
UNITED STATES
Speaker: 1:00 PM Janet l. Yellen (Chair)
SAAR = Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Consensus Source: Bloomberg
Speaker: 11:30 PM Stephen S. Poloz (Governor) & Press Conference at 1:00 PM ET
AUCTION: 30-YR CANADAS $1.4B
AUCTION: 3-M BILLS $8.0B, 6-M BILLS $3.0B, 1-YR BILLS $3.0B
CASH MANAGEMENT BUYBACK (Jun'15 - Aug'16) - $1.0B
CANADA
0.1%
0.2%
-0.2%
1.7%
8.0
5.22M
0.6%
0.3%
54.5
1020K
1070K
57
Consensus
0.2%
0.2%
-0.1%
1.8%
7.5
5.19M
6.1%
0.2%
54.1
2229K
264K
-0.42
-3.5%
926K
1042K
56
Prior
Week Ahead Calendar And Forecast
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—May 18-22, 2015
Week Ahead’s Market Call
by Nick Exarhos
In Canada, next week’s March economics readings should continue the momentum created
by manufacturing data released today. Decent gains in wholesaling and retailing should set us
up for a growth pace in the first quarter that tracks slightly above the flat reading expected
by the Bank of Canada. We’ll also get an idea of how the Bank’s thinking is evolving with
Governor Poloz speaking in Charlottetown on Tuesday. The BoC has brought up the potential
of raising the inflation target, and on Friday we’ll get inflation data for April that will keep the
core rate steady at 2.4%, while headline will moderate from its current year-on-year pace.
In the US, data on US housing are likely to continue to show improvements, with starts due
on Tuesday and sales figures released on Thursday. The minutes from the Fed’s last meeting
are also released on Tuesday, and they should give us a clearer picture as to how temporary
the members saw Q1’s growth disappointment. Chair Yellen is ending the week with a speech
on Friday, in which she’ll give us her own views on the economic outlook.
3
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—May 18-22, 2015
Week Ahead’s Key Canadian Number:
Consumer Price Index—April
5
(Friday, 8:30 a.m.)
4
Cdn Consumer Price Index
y/y % chg
BoC Target
3
Nick Exarhos (416) 956-6527
2
1
CPI m/m NSA
CPI yr/yr
Ex 8 volatile items m/m NSA
Ex 8 volatile items yr/yr
0
CIBC MktPrior
0.0% 0.1% 0.7%
0.9% 1.0% 1.2%
0.2% 0.1% 0.6%
2.4% 2.3% 2.4%
-1
Apr-12
Apr-13
All Items
Apr-14
Apr-15F
Ex. 8 volatile & indirect taxes
Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC
Most discussions regarding inflation around the world
centre on readings being disappointingly low, but
Canadian figures bucked the trend in March. An outsized
monthly gain in core inflation saw the year-on-year rate
leap to 2.4%, a pace it should be able to hold onto in
April. A 0.2% NSA (0.1% SA) month-over-month change
in the Bank of Canada’s preferred index of prices will be
slightly softer than we’ve seen recently, but it’ll reflect a
cooling in the broader economy and a moderation from
the prior month’s outsized advance.
As such, headline prices should be unchanged in April
(-0.1% SA), meaning that the year-on-year figure should
sag to 0.9%.
Forecast Implications—Headline should dip further in
the months ahead as strong year-ago readings fall out
of the calculation. But core shouldn’t spend much if any
time below 2%, as a continued pass-through from the
C$ provides a powerful tailwind. That’s one reason we
see the Bank of Canada as likely in position to hike rates
sometime in 2016, as narrow slack and above-target
inflation encourages Poloz to tighten.
The story will be slightly different for headline prices.
After jumping the prior two months, gasoline prices
were essentially unchanged in April. Food prices are
poised for a monthly advance, but will only hold steady
on their annual pace tracking something close to 4%.
Market Impact—We’re above the street for core, but
below it for headline, which should limit the market’s
reaction.
Other Canadian Releases:
Retail Trade—March
(Friday, 8:30 a.m.)
Autos continue to spin their wheels, but better days are
ahead. Sales decelerated further in March, but appear
to have zoomed ahead in April. That’s something to
look forward to, even if the upcoming release is likely
to underwhelm in that important consumption category.
Elsewhere, the momentum created in February should
continue into March, with more normal temperatures
giving respite to weather-worn shoppers. That means that
a 0.3% gain in headline sales, 0.7% ex-autos, is likely to
be a second solid data point in the week for March’s GDP
outlook, with wholesale trade due Wednesday likely to
bear out a 0.8% advance.
4
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—May 18-22, 2015
Week Ahead’s Key US Number:
Consumer Price Index—April
1.0
(Friday, 8:30 a.m.)
US Consumer Price Index
y/y % chg
m/m % chg
4
3
0.5
Andrew Grantham (416) 956-3219
2
0.0
Headline CPI m/m
Headline CPI yr/yr
Core CPI m/m
Core CPI yr/yr
CIBC
0.1%
-0.1%
0.1%
1.7%
1
Mkt
Prior
0.1% 0.2%
-0.2% -0.1%
0.2% 0.2%
1.7% 1.8%
-0.5
0
CPI (L)
CPI y-o-y (R)
-1.0
Apr-13
Oil prices may have started to rebound slightly, but it’s
hardly been a big move when judged against the extent
of the drop seen towards the end of 2014 and into the
start of this year. As a result, CPI readings will remain fairly
modest for a while longer. A 0.1% rise in headline CPI
during April would keep the annual rate just in negative
territory (-0.1%).
CPI ex Food & Energy y-o-y (R)
Dec-13
Aug-14
-1
Apr-15F
continued in April, despite the recent pull-back in the
US$. So core CPI could be a little weaker than its recent
trend this time, with a 0.1% monthly gain seeing the
annual rate tick back down to 1.7%.
Forecast Implications—We should be at or close to the
weakest points for both headline and core CPI after the
April numbers. In fact, the recent trend in energy prices
and signs of a tighter output gap in the US economy
could see both headline and core CPI finish the year
above 2%.
While producer prices saw a surprise drop in April, the
correlation between that and consumer prices isn’t
always that strong. We’ve seen core CPI firm in recent
months, with prices of goods with a lot of import
content (apparel, autos) even starting to edge up a little.
Judging by the trend in import prices, that may not have
Market Impact—A tick back down in core CPI could
support fixed income and weigh against the US$ a little.
Other US Releases:
Housing Starts—April
(Tuesday, 8:30 a.m.)
Construction activity failed to see the post-winter
bounce that many expected in March. In fact, the figures
showed barely any bounce back at all. However, an
overhang of permits and better building weather should
see housing starts finally firm in April. Indeed, we expect
a significant pick-up to a 1068K pace, although new
permit applications may lag that a little.
5
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—May 18-22, 2015
Equity Insights
Nick Exarhos
Heavier Canadian Crude Carrying Smaller Discount
WCS Discount Collapses (L),
A Cheaper C$ Also Softening Blow to Canadian Producers (R)
WCS in C$
Change Since Start of July
(%)
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
-45
US
Canada
WTI in US$
2015
2014
2013
2011
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
-45
-50
WCS Discount to WTI
($/bbL)
2012
Crude’s on a tear, and the gains are even sweeter for
Canadian producers. WCS’s discount to WTI has collapsed
toward multi-year lows, as several factors have come
together to bolster the price of Canada’s benchmark oil
grade. Rail bottlenecks that prevailed last year have eased,
allowing Canadian oil to flow more freely south. And
once it reaches the US, it’s finding stronger demand. A
labour dispute affecting a refinery that is one of the US’
most important users of Canadian oil has been resolved,
bolstering demand for heavier grades produced north of
the border. Though we see only limited upside for crude
from current levels in 2015, a smaller discount on WCS
and a cheaper loonie make Canadian producers more
attractive compared to those trading in the US.
Oil Benchmark in Local Curr.
S&P Energy Sector Index
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
TSX Sector Sensitive to Lumber Prices (L),
Where Upside Remains (R)
110
TSX Paper & Forest
Products Sector
340
300
95
280
90
260
85
240
80
220
May
100
Apr
320
Jan
105
Mar
TSX Paper and Forest product firms could be due for a
better year, even if stocks in that sector are down 9.5%
so far in 2015. The poor price action reflects weakness in
expected forward 12-month earnings, which themselves
have succumbed to falling prices in lumber futures.
But we’re sanguine on lumber’s prospects in 2015 and
beyond, with prices likely to average $40-50/’000 bd ft
more this year before moving higher in the years ahead.
With millions more employed, and younger age groups
benefitting disproportionately from the improvement in
the jobs market, look for housing—and lumber demand
created there—to support prices for producers and the
underlying commodity in the coming quarters.
Feb
Forestry Product Names Could Present Buying
Opportunity
Forward 12-mo Earnings
('15=100, L)
Generic 1st Lumber
($/'000 bd ft, R)
400
Lumber Prices
($/'000 bd ft)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Curr. 2015F2016F2017F
Price
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
At Records, But Not Celebrating Yet
Bears Playing Catch-up as US Data Disappoints
4.5
80
4.0
60
3.5
40
3.0
20
2.5
0
2.0
-20
1.5
-40
1.0
-60
0.5
0.0
-80
%
%
10
35
8
30
6
25
4
20
2
15
0
10
-2
5
-4
0
Jan-14
May-07
Sep-07
Feb-14
Jan-08
Mar-14
May-08
Sep-08
Apr-14
Jan-09
May-14
May-09
Sep-09
Jun-14
Jan-10
Jul-14
May-10
Sep-10
Aug-14
Jan-11
Sep-14
May-11
Sep-11
Oct-14
Jan-12
Nov-14
May-12
Sep-12
Dec-14
Jan-13
Jan-15
May-13
Sep-13
Feb-15
Jan-14
Mar-15
May-14
Apr-15
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
The S&P 500 took out its previous closing peak this week,
but investors aren’t feeling the euphoria just yet. The
spread between the bulls and the bears has continued
its downtrend started at the beginning of this year.
Part of the reason has been tied to the disappointing
data flow we’ve gotten in Q1, but we’re still holding
out hope that as Q2 readings trickle in, they’ll highlight
a brighter growth backdrop for the equity market. A
turn in sentiment, in addition to healthier economic
fundamentals, could be strong factors underpinning
further gains in the US equity market.
-6
-5
Earnings
CitiAvg
US Weekly
Eco Surprise
(L) (YoY, L)
(YoY,(4-wk
R)
NetCore
BullsRetailing
Minus Bears
avg, R)
Source: AAII, Citi, Bloomberg, CIBC
6
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—May 18-22, 2015
Currency Currents
Andrew Grantham and Royce Mendes
USDCAD in No Man’s Land
USDCAD Spends Little Time Around Fair Value (L),
Recent Rally Aided by High Correlation With Oil (R)
At its current level USDCAD is roughly in line with what
we would consider its fair value. So for anyone planning
for the next 10, 20 or 30 years, an average of between
1.15-1.20 would be a good one to use. However, that
doesn’t mean the currency will stay within that range in
the short term. Historically, USDCAD has spent little time
between 1.15-1.20. Furthermore, on this occasion the C$
has rallied in large part due to a recovery in oil. Yet with
WTI at $60, that’s not yet strong enough for investment
to come flooding back into the oil sands. But nor is the
currency weak enough anymore to see a flood of new
manufacturing investment. Something will have to give,
and we expect that USDCAD will return to its previous
highs (around 1.29) in the coming 3-6 months.
16.0
%
60 Day Correlation
CAD vs WTI
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
Apr-15
Jan-14
Outside 1.15-1.20
Oct-12
-0.4
Jul-11
Between 1.15-1.20
Apr-10
84.0
%
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
Realized Volatility has Fallen Dramatically Recently
JPY Calm Before the Storm
16
15
The USDJPY exchange rate has been a source of stability
during the past few months. While other major currencies
have been volatile and generally appreciated versus the
USD, the yen hasn’t really joined the party. Despite 10year JGB yields increasing more than 50% since late April,
foreign investors appear unimpressed by the still-paltry
0.45% yield—limiting the attractiveness of playing the
yen from the long side. With the possibility of further
stimulus out of the Bank of Japan and the Fed looking
to raise rates later in the year, expect volatility to increase
from its current low levels. That market movement
will likely see the yen depreciating further against the
greenback.
EUR
14
12
10
CAD
JPY 3Month
Realized
Volatility
8
10
6
30-day
Realized
Volatility
4
JPY
2
0
5
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
US Retail Sales Figures See Hefty Revisions, Particularly in First
Half of the Year
Left Looking for Revisions in the US
US data still isn’t playing ball, with the disappointing
April retail sales figures forcing us to further cut our Q2
GDP forecast. However, while we can’t hang our forecast
hats on the possibility of a revision to the figures, there’s
good reason not to take the first estimate of US retail
sales at face value—particularly it seems during the first
half of the year. The average absolute revisions to retail
sales figures has been 0.3%-pts for the January to June
period, with an upward bias. Revisions for the second half
of the year are around half the size on average, with no
directional bias. As such, weak retail sales prints can often
provide good US$ buying opportunities.
0.5
Revisions Since 2010 (%-pts)
Avg +0.1 (0.3)
0.4
Avg +0.0 (0.15)
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Avg Revision
-0.1
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Feb
Jan
Mar
Avg Absolute Revision
-0.2
Source: BEA, Bloomberg, CIBC
7
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—May 18-22, 2015
CANADIAN RELEASE AND EVENT DATES
May/June 2015
MONDAY
TUESDAY
11
WEDNESDAY
12
THURSDAY
FRIDAY
14
13
NEW HOUSING PRICE
INDEX
8:30 AM
18
19
Bank of Canada
Gov. Poloz speaks in
Charlottetown @ 11:30 AM
ET, and press conference at
1:00 PM ET
VICTORIA DAY
(HOLIDAY)
(Markets Closed)
25
WHOLESALE TRADE
8:30 AM
26
27
Bank of Canada
Interest Rate Announcement
1
2
28
BALANCE OF
INT’L PAYMENTS
8:30 AM
CURR. ACCT. BAL.
$BN(QR) $BN(AR)
14:Q3
-9.6 -38.4
14:Q4-13.9 -55.7
15:Q1
INDUSTRIAL PRICES
8:30 AM
M(NSA)
Y
FEB
1.8-1.5
MAR 0.3-1.8
APR
QUARTERLY
FINANCIAL STATISTICS
8:30 AM
4
3
INTERNATIONAL
RESERVES
8:15 AM
$BN
$BN
CHANGELEVEL
MAR 2.91377.7
APR 0.16277.8
MAY
MERCHANDISE TRADE
8:30 AM
$MN
12 MO.
BALANCE
FEB-2,215 -81
MAR -3,019-4,350
APR
8
21
20
9
IVEY PURCHASING
MANAGERS’ INDEX
10:00 AM
22
RETAIL TRADE
8:30 AM (Current$)
MY
JAN -1.41.3
FEB 1.72.5
MAR
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
8:30 AM
M(NSA)
Y
FEB0.9
1.0
MAR0.7
1.2
APR
29
NATIONAL ACCTS
8:30 AM
REAL
PRICE
GDPDEFLATOR
%ch AR
%ch AR
14:Q33.2 1.4
14:Q42.4 -2.4
15:Q1
GDP BY INDUSTRY
8:30 AM
(2002$)
GDPIND.PROD.
MM
JAN-0.2-0.3
FEB 0.0-0.4
MAR
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT,
EARNINGS & HOURS
8:30 AM
5
LABOUR
FORCE SURVEY
8:30 AM
AVG
EMPLOYUNEMP HRLY
(HSHOLD) RATEEARN
MY%Y
MAR
0.20.8 6.81.9
APR
-0.10.8 6.82.4
MAY
LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY
8:30 AM
11
10
HOUSING STARTS
8:15 AM
000’s (AR)
TOTAL SINGLES
MAR190 52
APR182 58
MAY
15
SURVEY OF
MANUFACTURING
8:30 AM
SHIPMENTS
M
Y
JAN -3.11.5
FEB -2.2-2.4
MAR 2.90.3
INT’L TRANSACTIONS
IN SECURITIES C$BN, NET
8:30 AM
BONDS MONEY S
TOCKSTOT
MARKET
JAN
10.5
-5.81.05.8
FEB
9.9
-2.21.69.4
MAR21.0 -5.3
6.8 22.5
12
BUSINESS CONDITIONS
SURVEY
8:30 AM
CAPACITY UTILIZATION
8:30 AM
LEVEL (%)
TOTALMANUF.
14:Q383.2 83.4
14:Q483.6 83.7
15:Q1
BUILDING PERMITS ($)
8:30 AM M
M
(RES)(NON-RES)
FEB
2.2-5.0
MAR 6.622.1
APR
All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change
from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets Inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical data: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Human Resources Development Canada and the Bank of Canada.
8
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—May 18-22, 2015
U.S. RELEASE AND EVENT DATES
May/June 2015
MONDAY
TUESDAY
WEDNESDAY
12
11
THURSDAY
13
RETAIL SALES
8:30 AM
M
Y
FEB -0.51.9
MAR 1.11.7
APR 0.00.9
TREASURY BUDGET
2:00 PM
PPI
8:30 AM M (SA)
Y
FEB-0.5
MAR0.2
APR-0.4
FRIDAY
14
(NSA)
-0.7
-0.8
-1.3
15
CAPACITY UTIL/
IND. PROD.
9:15 AM LEV
M
Y
FEB 78.9-0.1 3.4
MAR 78.6-0.3 2.3
APR 78.2-0.3 1.9
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (P)
9:55 AM
NET CAPITAL INFLOWS TICS
4:00 PM
3-Yr NOTE AUCTION
10-Yr NOTE AUCTION
30-Yr BOND AUCTION
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
18
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
19
HOUSING
STARTS
8:30 AMMIL (AR)
M
FEB 0.908-15.3
MAR0.926 2.0
APR
3,10-Yr NOTE SETTLEMENT
20
21
PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX
10:00 PM
EXISTING HOME SALES
10:00 AM
FOMC Minutes
LEADING INDICATOR
10:00 AM
2,5,7-Yr NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
25
MEMORIAL DAY
(HOLIDAY)
(Markets Closed)
27
DURABLE
GOODS ORDERS
8:30 AM
M
Y
FEB -1.40.5
MAR 4.00.7
APR
28
S&P/CASE-SHILLER
HOUSE PRICE INDEX
9:00 AM
MAR
APR
MAY
51.539.0
51.540.5
PERS. INC & OUT.
10:00 AM SAVING
INCOMECONS RATE
M MAR
FEB0.40.25.7
MAR
0.00.45.3
APR
2,5,7-Yr NOTE SETTLEMENT
2-Yr NOTE AUCTION
5-Yr NOTE AUCTION
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
10:00 AM
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
2
FACTORY ORDERS
10:00 AM M(SA)
Y(NSA)
FEB -0.1-4.6
MAR 2.1-4.0
APR
LIGHT VEHICLES
SALES MIL (AR)
Y
MAR
17.0543.8
APR
16.4613.1
MAY
7-Yr NOTE AUCTION
3
ADP SURVEY
8:15 AM
GOODS &
SERV. BALANCE (BOP) $B
8:30 AM GDS SERV TOT
FEB -55.7 19.8-35.9
MAR -70.6 19.2-51.4
APR
ISM NON-MFG SURVEY
10:00 AM
Beige Book
29
GDP
8:30 AM (AR)
REAL IMPLICIT
GDPDEFLATOR
14:Q4(F)2.2
0.2
15:Q1(A)0.2 -0.1
15:Q1(P)
4
NON-FARM
PRODUCTIVITY
8:30 AM Q/Q (AR)
Y/Y
14:Q4 (R)
-2.1
-0.1
15:Q1 (P)
-1.9
0.6
15:Q1 (R)
3, 10-Yr NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT
CHICAGO PMI
9:45 AM
MICHIGAN
SENTIMENT (F)
9:55 AM
5
EMPLOY. SITUATION
8:30 AM
NON- CIVAVG
FARMUNEMP HRLY
PAYROLL RATE EARN
(000s)M
%
Y
MAR855.51.9
APR
2235.41.9
MAY
CONSUMER CREDIT
3:00 PM
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
9
10
TREASURY BUDGET
2:00 PM
3-Yr NOTE AUCTION
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
3-Yr BOND ANNOUNCEMENT
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
8
Fed Chair Yellen speaks
on economic outlook at
1:00 PM ET in Rhode Island
CORPORATE PROFITS
8:30 AM
NEW HOME SALES
10:00 AM
ISM MFG SURVEY
10:00 AM COMP.
PRICES
INDEXINDEX
22
CPI
8:30 AM M(SA)
Y
(NSA)
FEB0.2 0.0
MAR0.2 -0.1
APR
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
26
1
30-Yr BOND SETTLEMENT
10-Yr NOTE AUCTION
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
11
12
RETAIL SALES
8:30 AM
M
Y
MAR 1.11.7
APR 0.00.9
MAY
PPI
8:30 AM M (SA)
Y (NSA)
MAR0.2 -0.8
APR-0.4 -1.3
MAY
BUSINESS INVENTORIES
10:00 AM
30-Yr BOND AUCTION
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (P)
9:55 AM
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change
from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical data: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and U.S. Federal Reserve Board.
9
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—May 18-22, 2015
This report is issued and approved for distribution by (a) in Canada, CIBC World Markets Inc., a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, the Toronto Stock Exchange, the TSX Venture
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10