THE WEEK AHEAD - CIBC World Markets

The Week Ahead
June 1-5, 2015
Weighing Wages
by Avery Shenfeld
Nick Exarhos
(416) 956-6527
nick.exarhos@cibc.ca
“...another measure,
of equal validity,
shows that US
wages are already
under pressure from
a tightening in the
jobs market.”
http://research.
cibcwm.com/res/Eco/
EcoResearch.html
Unlike the average hourly earnings data
from the payrolls report, the Employment
Cost Index (ECI), a quarterly series tracking
both pay and benefit costs to employers,
has seen a notable acceleration in recent
quarters. That’s true for both its total
compensation series, which includes benefit
costs like those associated with Obamacare,
but also the subcomponent for wages and
salaries (Chart).
Can both sets of data be right? Yes, owing
to the difference in how wages across
industries are weighted in the two reports.
The average hourly earnings series is just
what its name suggests, and it captures
both pay hikes for individual workers or
industries, but also compositional changes
in the workforce. Increased hiring of younger
workers as we’ve seen in the past year, or
adding weight in lower paying industries/
occupations, can produce a drop in the
average wage even if no specific sector is
History suggests that average hourly
earnings, while likely to improve a bit in
the months ahead, don’t really take off
until the jobless rate is well through its fullemployment level. If the Fed waits to see
big-time gains in hourly earnings, it will be
rushing into multiple rate hikes where the
risk of misjudgment will be greater. Instead,
the Fed could point to the ECI shift as a
signal that inflation will over time climb back
to its 2% target, justifying a small dose of
monetary tightening this fall.
4
Avg Hrly Earnings,
Y/Y %
3
4
Private Wages/
Salaries, ECI, Y/Y %
3
2
2
1
1
0
Nov-13
Royce Mendes
(416) 594-7354
royce.mendes@cibc.ca
Markets remain skeptical on that front, and
their doubts centre on the lack of upward
pressure on average hourly earnings, which
have remained tepid. But another measure,
of equal validity, shows that US wages are
already under pressure from a tightening in
the jobs market.
Mar-12
Andrew Grantham
(416) 956-3219
andrew.grantham@cibc.ca
The ECI, in contrast, measures the cost
of employing a fixed basket of workers,
eliminating the impacts of changes in the
industrial or occupational mix of employees.
Growth in the employment share of baristas
over factory workers will not affect the ECI
measure. It’s less useful, then, as an indicator
of incomes, but a better guide to whether
individual industries could face cost pressures
that will propel inflation down the road.
Jul-10
Benjamin Tal
(416) 956-3698
benjamin.tal@cibc.ca
actually paying less than it did a month
earlier. Multiplied by changes in the number
of hours worked, it’s the most timely
measure of the impact of labour market
trends on incomes and spending power, at
least until personal income data are out for
the same month.
Nov-08
Avery Shenfeld
(416) 594-7356
avery.shenfeld@cibc.ca
US payrolls data will again be under the
microscope in the week ahead, but these
days, it’s wages, rather than the number
of new hires, that draws the market’s
attention. Sure, US GDP was ugly in the
first quarter. But consistently good news on
US employment suggests that businesses
expect a return to climbing demand for their
output, enough to have Janet Yellen still on
board for a rate hike sometime this year.
Mar-07
Economics
0
Q107
Q109
Q111
Q113
Q115
CIBC World Markets Inc. • PO Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 • Bloomberg @ CIBC • (416) 594-7000
C I B C W o r l d M a r k e t s C o r p • 3 0 0 M a d i s o n A v e n u e , N e w Yo r k , N Y 1 0 0 1 7 • ( 2 1 2 ) 8 5 6 - 4 0 0 0 , ( 8 0 0 ) 9 9 9 - 6 7 2 6
Friday
June 5
Thursday
June 4
Wednesday
June 3
Tuesday
June 2
Monday
June 1
`
CIBC
(L)
(H)
(May) (H)
(Q1) (M)
(May) (H)
(May)
(Apr)
10K
6.8%
6.9%
-$2.0B
-19.7K
-0.1%
6.8%
58.2
-$3.0B
Prior
(May)
(Apr)
(May)
9:45 AM
MARKIT US MANUFACTURING PMI Final
10:00 AM
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING M/M
ISM - MANUFACTURING
(May)
(May)
(May)
9:45 AM
MARKIT US SERVICES PMI Final
MARKIT US COMPOSITE PMI Final
10:00 AM
ISM - NON-MANUFACTURING
(May)
(May)
(May)
(May)
(May)
(Apr)
Speaker:12:00 PM Daniel K. Tarullo (Governor)
8:30 AM
NON-FARM PAYROLLS
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS ALL EMPLOYEES M/M
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS ALL EMPLOYEES
MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS
3:00 PM
CONSUMER CREDIT
Speaker: 5:00 PM James Bullard (St Louis)
Speaker: 2:15 PM Charles L. Evans (Chic ago)
8:30 AM
CONTINUING CLAIMS
INITIAL CLAIMS
NON-FARM PRODUCTIVITY
(May 23)
(May 30)
(Q1 F)
(Apr)
8:30 AM
GOODS & SERVICES TRADE BALANCE
2:00 PM
FED'S BEIGE BOOK
(May)
8:15 AM
ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE
(May 29)
(May)
NEW VEHICLE SALES
7:00 AM
MBA-APPLICATIONS
(Apr)
10:00 AM
FACTORY ORDERS M/M
Speaker: 9:30 AM Stanley Fisc her (Fed Vic e Chair) in Toronto
Speaker: 9:05 AM Eric Rosengren (Boston)
AUCTION: 4-WEEK BILLS $45B (prev)
(Apr)
(Apr)
(Apr)
(Apr)
8:30 AM
PCE DEFLATOR Y/Y
PCE DEFLATOR Y/Y (c ore)
PERSONAL INCOME M/M
PERSONAL SPENDING M/M
AUCTION: 3-M BILLS $24B, 6-M BILLS $24B
UNITED STATES
(L)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(L)
(L)
(M)
(M)
(L)
(L)
(H)
(M)
(L)
(M)
(M)
(M)
(H)
(L)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(H)
Speaker: 12:30 PM William C. Dudley (New York, President)
SAAR = Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Consensus Source: Bloomberg
Consensus
-5.0K
-$2.1B
H, M, L = High, Medium or Low Significance
8:30 AM
EMPLOYMENT CHANGE
LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY Q/Q
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
10:00 AM
IVEY PMI
8:30 AM
MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE
AUCTION: 30-YR RRB $xx
AUCTION: 3-M BILLS $xB, 6-M BILLS $xB, 1-YR BILLS $xB
CANADA
200K
5.3%
0.3%
34.5
57.5
-$42.0B
0.0%
52.7
0.2%
1.4%
0.3%
0.2%
CIBC
$16.5B
224K
5.4%
0.2%
34.5
5K
-2.9%
57
-$44.3B
198K
17.0M
-0.1%
0.7%
52.0
0.2%
1.4%
0.3%
0.2%
Consensus
$20.5B
223K
5.4%
0.1%
34.5
1K
2222K
282K
-1.9%
57.8
56.4
56.1
-$51.4B
169K
-1.6%
16.5M
2.1%
-0.6%
51.5
53.8
0.3%
1.3%
0.0%
0.4%
Prior
Week Ahead Calendar And Forecast
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—June 1-5, 2015
Week Ahead’s Market Call
by Avery Shenfeld
In the US, a very heavy week for data will save the best for last, with Friday’s jobs report
sending a comforting message. Payrolls hiring might not quite live up to consensus
expectations for May, but if wages see a better monthly gain and the jobless rate drops a
tick, markets should be reassured that the economy is on the mend from its Q1 decline. ISM
factory and services reports should provide more of the same, with the only real sore spot
being a tame reading for personal spending in April.
In Canada, the consensus is expecting a rebound in employment after a dip in April, but
that’s not obvious given what’s happening in the energy sector and its spillovers elsewhere.
While the one-month figures are anyone’s guess, our projection for a weak result in May is
tied to our quarterly forecast for a further climb in the jobless rate on below-potential growth
in Q2. April’s trade balances will see some improvement, but is likely to still be deep in the red.
3
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—June 1-5, 2015
Week Ahead’s Key Canadian Number:
Labour Force Survey—May
100
(Friday, 8:30 a.m.)
Nick Exarhos (416) 956-6527
Employment
Unemployment Rate
10K -20K
6.8% 6.8%
%
000s
8.0
50
7.5
0
7.0
-50
6.5
-100
May-13
CIBC MktPrior
-5.0K
6.9%
Canadian Employment
Nov-13
May-14
Month/Month Chg (L)
Nov-14
6.0
May-15
Jobless Rate (R)
Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC
Forecast Implications—A roughly 7% unemployment
rate should prevail in the second and third quarters,
before we see better results at the tail end of this year,
and heading into 2016. Although the Bank of Canada is
sanguine on the prospects for the non-energy sectors of
the economy, we’re of the view that will take a bit longer
for more exchange rate sensitive industries to truly benefit
from a weaker loonie and stronger US economy.
Given the emerging challenges facing Canadian
employment in 2015, it wasn’t a huge surprise that we
inaugurated the second quarter with a sizeable dip in
jobs. And because the headwinds aren’t likely to dissipate
any time soon, May data is likely to bear out another
drop.
A 5K decline in employment, combined with an
essentially unchanged participation rate, should drive
the unemployment rate a tick higher to 6.9%. That will
reflect a not-insignificant deterioration in that measure
versus where we stood at the end of 2014, with a
bit more slippage likely ahead. We’ve pointed to the
government sector, along with the oil patch as potential
soft spots for the labour markets this year, and that’s likely
to be a theme in May.
Market Impact—We are below the consensus, so if our
call proves to be on the mark, look for weakness in the
C$ and support for the front end of the yield curve.
Other Canadian Releases:
Merchandise Trade Balance—April
(Wednesday, 8:30 a.m.)
March’s more normal weather saw two-way trade
perk back up even if the trade deficit reached a record
$3.0 bn. April won’t be subject to the same one-off
positive catalysts in terms of volumes, but Canada’s trade
balance will benefit from a bounce in crude prices, and a
narrowing in the discount on Western Canadian Select.
Stronger energy exports to the US should be key in seeing
a significant narrowing of the deficit, which is likely to tip
the scales at $2.1bn in April.
4
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—June 1-5, 2015
Week Ahead’s Key US Number:
000s
US Payroll Employment
Employment Situation—May
500
(Friday, 8:30 a.m.)
400
8.0
300
7.5
200
7.0
100
6.5
0
6.0
Andrew Grantham (416) 956-3219
CIBC
Employment (change)
200K
Unemployment rate
5.3%
Avg Hrly Earnings (% m/m) 0.3%
Mkt
224K
5.4%
0.2%
Prior
223K
5.4%
0.1%
-100
-200
May-13
March’s sharp slowdown in hiring looks increasingly like a
temporary blip, with payrolls growth rebounding in April
and initial jobless claims remaining at historic low levels.
But that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s back to the races
for payrolls either. With the headline unemployment rate
already low, further labour market improvement will
increasingly rear its head in the form of longer working
hours and wage gains rather than blow-out job gains.
Employment growth could look firmer on the household
survey, which has lagged a little recently, and drive the
unemployment rate a tick lower in May.
Monthly Payroll Chg (L)
Unemployment Rate (R)
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
%
8.5
5.5
5.0
May-15F
average earnings but which is accounted for in the ECI.
The annual rate of hourly earnings growth is unlikely to
accelerate much (if at all) in May, but could rise a bit
thereafter thanks to more favourable base effects.
Forecast Implications—Job growth could continue to
run at a 200K or so pace for the remainder of this year.
While that’s not as strong as last year (250K average),
it would be enough given current population growth
to see the unemployment rate reach 5% by year-end.
That, and progress on wages, should see the Fed raising
interest rates in September.
The continued sluggishness in average hourly earnings
is a little surprising, particularly as other measures of
income (such as the quarterly Employment Cost Index)
have been showing clear upward momentum. That
could in part be due to a slight lowering in the average
age of the workforce recently, which tends to lower
Market Impact—A further dip in the unemployment
rate could be positive for the US$ and negative for fixed
income, as long as payrolls and earnings growth don’t
disappoint.
Other US Releases:
ISM Manufacturing—May
Goods & Services Trade Balance—April
(Monday, 10:00 a.m.)
(Wednesday, 8:30 a.m.)
The port strike and harsh winter weather are now well
behind us. The US$ was noticeably lower through most
of the month and the latest durable goods orders suggest
a modest recovery in investment may have begun. So
the stage appears to be set for a modest recovery in the
manufacturing ISM as well. An improvement to 52.7,
from 51.5, may beat consensus expectations handily, but
it would still leave the index at a level reflective of fairly
subdued growth historically.
The ending of the west coast port strike saw a flood of
imports coming onshore in March, resulting in a marked
widening of the US trade deficit. Strangely, there was
little change in exports, which would also likely have
been hampered by the poor winter weather and port
strike. That could be because they’re sitting in factory
warehouses rather than waiting at the dock to be
loaded. The delay in timing could mean that the upturn
in exports comes in April, seeing the trade deficit shrink
to $42.0 bn.
5
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—June 1-5, 2015
Equity Insights
Nick Exarhos
US Housing Driving Q2 Bounce
Home Builders Recently Suffering (L);
New Home Sales Can Still Take Share Of Total Homes Sold (R)
We were counting on a strong showing from Q2 data.
And so far we’ve got reasons to believe that the US
recovery hasn’t been derailed. Part of that confidence is
based on payrolls snapping back after the Easter surprise,
and part is due to the strong results from the US housing
market. Pending home sales are now up over 13% from
year-ago levels, while housing starts jumped 20% m/m
in April. However, stocks tied to that important US sector
aren’t exactly feeling the love. At least, not yet. New
home sales have been on a clear uptrend since mid-2014,
and as a share of total homes sold, there’s plenty of room
for them to run up, supporting related stocks.
2150
760
18
2100
720 16
2050
680 12
2000
640
1950
600
New Home Sales
(Share of Total, %)
14
S&P 500 (L)
S&P Home Builders (R)
8
6
4
Jan-05
Mar-06
May-07
Jul-08
Sep-09
Nov-10
Jan-12
Mar-13
May-14
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
10
Source: US Census Bureau, Bloomberg, CIBC
S&P Outshines TSX on Earnings
TSX and S&P Earnings Scorecard
Chalk this earnings season up as a win for the S&P 500
over the TSX. Both nations faced disappointments on
growth in the first quarter, but earnings beats were more
plentiful south of the border. Roughly three quarters
of S&P 500 companies beat consensus, just over the
historical average. That beat rate was 25% better than
what was seen on the Toronto Composite. Though
our health care sector has been a standout performer,
especially on a risk-adjusted basis, the bar may have been
set too high for names in that corner of the market. US
analysts were more aggressive than those in Canada in
marking down expectations for energy earnings, allowing
those in the S&P to have a higher beat rate.
Earnings Beat Rate (%)
Technology
Financials
Utilities
Telecos
Cons. Services
Health Care
Cons. Goods
Industrials
Materials
Oil & Gas
All Securities
0
S&P 500
25
50
75
100
TSX
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
Canadians Flowing Out of Domestic Equity Funds
Though analysts could have been a tad optimistic,
Canadian investors haven’t been bullish on stocks,
particularly those trading in Canada. IFIC data for April
highlights a 26% decline in year-to-date equity fund
sales from the same period a year ago, with balanced
and bond funds picking up the slack. And amongst those
lagging equity flows, domestic funds have been the ones
driving the slowing. The data suggests that outflows of
Canadian-oriented funds have faced nearly $3.5 bn yearto-date. But could this be a case of selling at the bottom?
True, there aren’t many positive catalysts to point for
the Canadian growth landscape. But somewhat more
attractive valuations, combined with a pick-up in global
growth come 2016, could favour the more cyclically
oriented Canadian market next year.
Canadian Investors Rotating Toward US and Int’l Stock Funds
4.0
Net Sales excl. Re-invested Dist.
(YTD through April, C$ bn.)
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
6
Domestic
Int'l Equity U.S. Equity Sector Equity
Equity
2015
2014
2013
Source: IFIC, CIBC
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—June 1-5, 2015
Currency Currents
Royce Mendes
BoC Pushing Back Against Loonie’s Rebound
Loonie’s Correlation With Oil Could be Overdone
If you like the outlook for oil, should you be similarly
enthusiastic on what lies ahead for the Canadian dollar?
In conjunction with the rebound in oil prices, markets
temporarily looked more favourably on the C$. But the
Bank of Canada’s statement on Wednesday suggests it’s
concerned that the drag from a stronger loonie might
more than offset some of the positive effects of higher
oil prices. As a result, the BoC could take the wind out of
the CAD sails by remaining more dovish on interest rate
settings. That could undermine the loonie’s correlation
with oil prices ahead.
0.7
CAD and WTI 6-month Correlation
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
2013
2014
2015
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
Core CPI Stands Tall in Face of USD Strength
Falling Import Prices Have Not Taken Core CPI With Them
With the US dollar resuming its march higher, some
market commentators fear that its strength will pull
inflation further away from the Fed’s target. But the dollar
is appreciating because the US economy is expected to
outperform its peers. As a result, the domestic economy
is creating more than enough inflation to outweigh the
effects of a stronger dollar. For example, while prices
of imported durable consumer goods have languished
during this period of USD strength, core inflation
continues to provide FOMC voters reasons to raise rates
later this year.
%
Durable Consumer Goods Import
Prices
Core Inflation
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
Source: BEA, BLS, CIBC
Currency Wars Rage On
Policymakers in EM countries have been trying to label
QE programs as a form of currency wars for years now.
Even though the Fed is no longer in the QE game, not
much has changed now that the ECB and BoJ are the big
players. Since the beginning of December (around the
time hints were being dropped about possible QE in the
Eurozone), the Indian rupee has appreciated almost 10%
versus the euro. Over that same time, the value of India’s
exports denominated in USD have decreased by 15%
(while the USDINR exchange rate has remained in a tight
range). To be sure, this is not all the result of a weaker
EUR, but India’s textile export industry is susceptible to
swings in the currency. As the currency war rages on,
further interest rates cuts from the RBI may be necessary
to restore India’s competitiveness.
ECB Bond Buying Has Hurt Indian Exports
10
Change Since the
Beginning of December
2014 (%)
5
0
-5
-10
-15
7
INR EUR
Indian Exports
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—June 1-5, 2015
CANADIAN RELEASE AND EVENT DATES
May/June 2015
MONDAY
TUESDAY
25
WEDNESDAY
26
THURSDAY
27
Bank of Canada
Interest Rate Announcement
1
2
28
BALANCE OF
INT’L PAYMENTS
8:30 AM
CURR. ACCT. BAL.
$BN(QR) $BN(AR)
14:Q3
-9.0 -36.1
14:Q4-13.1 -52.2
15:Q1-17.5 -69.9
INDUSTRIAL PRICES
8:30 AM
M(NSA)
Y
FEB
1.8-1.4
MAR 0.2-1.8
APR -0.9-2.4
QUARTERLY
FINANCIAL STATISTICS
8:30 AM
4
3
INTERNATIONAL
RESERVES
8:15 AM
$BN
$BN
CHANGELEVEL
MAR 2.91377.7
APR 0.16277.8
MAY
MERCHANDISE TRADE
8:30 AM
$MN
12 MO.
BALANCE
FEB-2,215 -81
MAR -3,019-4,350
APR
8
FRIDAY
9
10
HOUSING STARTS
8:15 AM
000’s (AR)
TOTAL SINGLES
MAR190 52
APR182 58
MAY
IVEY PURCHASING
MANAGERS’ INDEX
10:00 AM
29
NATIONAL ACCTS
8:30 AM
REAL
PRICE
GDPDEFLATOR
%ch AR
%ch AR
14:Q33.2 1.1
14:Q42.2 -1.8
15:Q1-0.6 -2.1
GDP BY INDUSTRY
8:30 AM
(2002$)
GDPIND.PROD.
MM
JAN-0.2-0.3
FEB-0.1-0.7
MAR-0.2 -1.2
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT,
EARNINGS & HOURS
8:30 AM
5
LABOUR
FORCE SURVEY
8:30 AM
AVG
EMPLOYUNEMP HRLY
(HSHOLD) RATEEARN
MY%Y
MAR
0.20.8 6.81.9
APR
-0.10.8 6.82.4
MAY
LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY
8:30 AM
11
BUSINESS CONDITIONS
SURVEY
8:30 AM
12
CAPACITY UTILIZATION
8:30 AM
LEVEL (%)
TOTALMANUF.
14:Q383.2 83.4
14:Q483.6 83.7
15:Q1
BUILDING PERMITS ($)
8:30 AM M
M
(RES)(NON-RES)
FEB
2.2-5.0
MAR 6.622.1
APR
NEW HOUSING PRICE
INDEX
8:30 AM
Bank of Canada
Governor Poloz & Sr Dep
Gov speak after Financial
System Review
@ 11:15 AM ET
15
SURVEY OF
MANUFACTURING
8:30 AM
SHIPMENTS
M
Y
FEB -2.2-2.4
MAR 2.90.3
APR
22
16
INT’L TRANSACTIONS
IN SECURITIES C$BN, NET
8:30 AM
BONDS MONEY S
TOCKSTOT
MARKET
FEB
9.9
-2.21.69.4
MAR21.0 -5.3
6.8 22.5
APR
17
18
WHOLESALE TRADE
8:30 AM
19
RETAIL TRADE
8:30 AM (Current$)
MY
FEB 1.52.4
MAR 0.73.1
APR
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
8:30 AM
M(NSA)
Y
MAR
0.71.2
APR
-0.10.8
MAY
23
24
25
26
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT,
EARNINGS & HOURS
8:30 AM
All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change
from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets Inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical data: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Human Resources Development Canada and the Bank of Canada.
8
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—June 1-5, 2015
U.S. RELEASE AND EVENT DATES
May/June 2015
MONDAY
TUESDAY
25
MEMORIAL DAY
(HOLIDAY)
(Markets Closed)
WEDNESDAY
26
THURSDAY
28
27
DURABLE
GOODS ORDERS
8:30 AM
M
Y
FEB -3.5-3.2
MAR 5.1-0.7
APR -0.5-2.3
FRIDAY
S&P/CASE-SHILLER
HOUSE PRICE INDEX
9:00 AM
CORPORATE PROFITS
8:30 AM
NEW HOME SALES
10:00 AM
2-Yr NOTE AUCTION
5-Yr NOTE AUCTION
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
10:00 AM
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
2
1
PERS. INC & OUT.
8:30 AM SAVING
INCOMECONS RATE
M MAR
FEB0.40.25.7
MAR
0.00.45.3
APR
ISM MFG SURVEY
10:00 AM COMP.
PRICES
INDEXINDEX
MAR
APR
MAY
51.539.0
51.540.5
2,5,7-Yr NOTE SETTLEMENT
FACTORY ORDERS
10:00 AM M(SA)
Y(NSA)
FEB -1.0-6.5
MAR 2.1-5.3
APR
LIGHT VEHICLES
SALES MIL (AR)
Y
MAR
17.0543.8
APR
16.4613.1
MAY
7-Yr NOTE AUCTION
GOODS &
SERV. BALANCE (BOP) $B
8:30 AM GDS SERV TOT
FEB -55.7 19.8-35.9
MAR -70.6 19.2-51.4
APR
ISM NON-MFG SURVEY
10:00 AM
Beige Book
3, 10-Yr NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT
3-Yr BOND ANNOUNCEMENT
10
TREASURY BUDGET
2:00 PM
10-Yr NOTE AUCTION
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
17
HOUSING
STARTS
8:30 AMMIL (AR)
M
MAR0.944 4.9
APR 1.13520.2
MAY
11
22
EXISTING HOME SALES
10:00 AM
12
PPI
8:30 AM M (SA)
Y (NSA)
MAR0.2 -0.8
APR-0.4 -1.3
MAY
BUSINESS INVENTORIES
10:00 AM
30-Yr BOND AUCTION
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (P)
9:55 AM
18
CPI
M(SA)
Y
(NSA)
MAR0.2 -0.1
APR0.1 1.2
MAY
CURRENT ACCOUNT BAL.
8:30 AM
19
LEADING INDICATOR
10:00 AM
FOMC Rate Decision
NET CAPITAL INFLOWS TICS
4:00 PM
CONSUMER CREDIT
3:00 PM
RETAIL SALES
8:30 AM
M
Y
MAR 1.11.7
APR 0.00.9
MAY
8:30 AM
CAPACITY UTIL/
IND. PROD.
9:15 AM LEV
M
Y
MAR 78.6-0.3 2.3
APR 78.2-0.3 1.9
MAY
5
EMPLOY. SITUATION
8:30 AM
NON- CIVAVG
FARMUNEMP HRLY
PAYROLL RATE EARN
(000s)M
%
Y
MAR855.51.9
APR
2235.41.9
MAY
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
16
15
4
NON-FARM
PRODUCTIVITY
8:30 AM Q/Q (AR)
Y/Y
14:Q4 (R)
-2.1
-0.1
15:Q1 (P)
-1.9
0.6
15:Q1 (R)
CHICAGO PMI
9:45 AM
MICHIGAN
SENTIMENT (F)
9:55 AM
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
9
3-Yr NOTE AUCTION
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
3
ADP SURVEY
8:15 AM
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
8
29
GDP
8:30 AM (AR)
REAL IMPLICIT
GDPDEFLATOR
14:Q4(F)2.2
0.2
15:Q1(P)-0.7
-0.1
Fed Chair Yellen speaks
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
23
DURABLE
GOODS ORDERS
8:30 AM
M
Y
MAR 5.1-0.7
APR -0.5-2.3
MAY
NEW HOME SALES
10:00 AM
2-Yr NOTE AUCTION
PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX
10:00 PM
2,5,7-Yr NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
24
GDP
8:30 AM (AR)
REAL IMPLICIT
GDPDEFLATOR
14:Q4(F)2.2
0.2
15:Q1(P)-0.7
-0.1
15:Q1(F)
CORPORATE PROFITS
8:30 AM
5-Yr NOTE AUCTION
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
25
PERS. INC & OUT.
8:30 AM SAVING
INCOMECONS RATE
M MAR
MAR
0.00.45.3
APR
MAY
26
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (F)
9:55 AM
7-Yr NOTE AUCTION
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change
from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical data: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and U.S. Federal Reserve Board.
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CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—June 1-5, 2015
This report is issued and approved for distribution by (a) in Canada, CIBC World Markets Inc., a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, the Toronto Stock Exchange, the TSX Venture
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