Credit Opinion BAWAG P.S.K.
Transcription
Credit Opinion BAWAG P.S.K.
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION 6 July 2016 BAWAG P.S.K. Update Following Lowering of Macro Profile Update Summary Rating Rationale We assign long- and short-term issuer, debt and deposit ratings of A3/P-2 to Bank fuer Arbeit und Wirtschaft und Oesterreichische Postsparkasse AG's (BAWAG) and assign a positive outlook to these ratings. Furthermore, we assign subordinated debt ratings of Baa3 to BAWAG and Counterparty Risk Assessment of A2(cr)/P-1(cr). RATINGS BAWAG P.S.K. Domicile Vienna, Austria Long Term Rating A3 Type LT Bank Deposits - Fgn Curr Outlook Positive Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information.The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. Contacts Bernhard Held, CFA 49-69-70730-973 VP – Senior Analyst bernhard.held@moodys.com Alexander Hendricks, 49-69-70730-779 CFA Associate Managing Director - Banking alexander.hendricks@moodys.com BAWAG's A3/P-2 debt and deposit ratings reflect (1) the bank's baa2 baseline credit assessment (BCA); (2) the result of our Advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis, which takes into account the severity of loss faced by the different liability classes in resolution and which results in two notches of rating uplift to BAWAG's long-term ratings; and (3) a low likelihood of BAWAG receiving government support, resulting in no additional rating uplift. BAWAG's baa2 BCA is at the low-end of our scorecard range, indicating potential upside over our 12-18 month outlook horizon. This reflects our anticipation of a further improvement in the bank's financial profile, provided that BAWAG (1) carefully manages the expansion of its international commercial and retail residential portfolios, thereby maintaining its currently stable risk profile; (2) continues to sustainably build up its capital adequacy ratios and strike a prudent balance between bondholders' and owners' interests with regard to dividend payouts; and (3) succeeds in maintaining the achieved profitability levels in 2016 and beyond. Exhibit 1 Rating Scorecard BAWAG P.S.K. - Key Financial Ratios Carola Schuler 49-69-70730-766 Managing Director Banking carola.schuler@moodys.com Source: Moody's Financial Metrics MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS BAWAG's BCA will nevertheless remain constrained by our assessment of the bank's ongoing expansion into higher-risk asset classes, largely focusing on international corporate and commercial real estate. In our view, this adds concentration risks to BAWAG's balance sheet and may exert undue pressure on the bank's profitability and, potentially, capital ratios in a highly adverse macroeconomic scenario. In addition, the acquisition of a residential mortgage-loan portfolio in the UK in December 2015 adds new risks to BAWAG's balance sheet, while at the same time promoting further diversification and increasing the level of the bank's earnings streams. Credit Strengths » Capital ratios and core earnings have significantly improved » Strong access to stable retail deposits supports funding and liquidity profile » Senior creditors benefit from large volumes of granular retail deposits, and cushion provided by additional senior and subordinated debt instruments in the unlikely event of resolution (LGF analysis) Credit Challenges » Asset-quality risks have decreased and are manageable, yet uncertainties remain around the future performance of BAWAG's international investment and loan portfolio » Less supportive operating environment following downgrade of Austrian Macro Profile Rating Outlook » The outlook on the bank's long-term ratings is positive, reflecting our anticipation of a further improvement in the bank's financial profile during our outlook horizon. Any improvement would likely affect all ratings. Factors that Could Lead to an Upgrade » Upward pressure on BAWAG P.S.K.'s BCA and thus its long-term ratings could result from (1) continued control and minimization of risks resulting from BAWAG P.S.K.'s diversification and international expansion strategy that, in an adverse scenario, could negatively affect asset quality, earnings and capital; (2) higher and high-quality capital buffers over and above the regulatory minimum as determined by the Basel III capital regime and relevant regulatory authorities, coupled with adequate earnings retention rates; and (3) sustain the achieved improvement in retained earnings thereby fostering sound internal capital generation and thus loss-absorption capacity. » An upgrade of BAWAG's BCA is likely to trigger an upgrade of the bank's long-term ratings. Upward pressure on the bank's deposit, issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings could further develop if BAWAG's volume of subordinated debt instruments increases significantly relative to the bank's tangible banking assets, which could result in one additional notch of rating uplift resulting from our LGF analysis. Factors that Could Lead to a Downgrade » BAWAG P.S.K.'s BCA and thus its long-term ratings could be downgraded if the bank's financial strength significantly deteriorates following (1) substantial weakening of the bank's risk profile; and/or (2) BAWAG P.S.K.'s capital ratios falling to levels that are no longer providing a significant buffer over and above the stricter capital requirements under the Basel III regime and/or as set by its regulator. » A downgrade of the long-term issuer, debt and deposit ratings could further develop if BAWAG's volume of debt instruments decreases further relative to the bank's tangible banking assets, which could result in fewer notches of rating uplift resulting from our LGF analysis. This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history. 2 6 July 2016 BAWAG P.S.K.: Update Following Lowering of Macro Profile FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE Key Indicators Exhibit 2 BAWAG P.S.K. (Consolidated Financials) [1] Total Assets (EUR billion) Total Assets (USD billion) Tangible Common Equity (EUR billion) Tangible Common Equity (USD billion) Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) Net Interest Margin (%) PPI / Average RWA (%) Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) Cost / Income Ratio (%) Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) Gross loans / Due to customers (%) 12-152 12-142 12-133 12-123 12-113 Avg. 35.0 38.0 2.6 2.8 2.3 16.1 20.0 2.1 2.8 1.2 49.5 22.1 16.7 115.0 33.9 41.1 2.2 2.6 2.8 12.9 25.2 1.9 2.5 1.0 54.2 22.7 19.5 104.4 35.7 49.2 1.7 2.4 3.5 10.9 36.0 1.5 2.2 0.6 58.5 21.6 27.5 96.9 40.0 52.7 1.5 2.0 4.9 7.2 53.1 1.4 1.5 0.3 63.0 29.3 31.4 104.2 41.1 53.3 1.1 1.5 5.1 4.9 67.4 1.7 1.4 0.3 62.7 34.7 23.7 108.6 -4.04 -8.14 23.34 17.94 3.75 14.56 40.35 1.75 2.66 0.75 57.65 26.15 23.75 105.85 [1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments [2] Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in; IFRS [3] Basel II; IFRS [4] Compound Annual Growth Rate based on IFRS reporting periods [5] IFRS reporting periods have been used for average calculation [6] Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in & IFRS reporting periods have been used for average calculation Source: Moody's Financial Metrics Detailed Rating Considerations Asset-quality risks have decreased and are manageable, yet uncertainties remain around the future performance of BAWAG's international investment and loan portfolio Any further improvement in BAWAG's asset risk assessment remains dependent on the future performance of BAWAG's international assets and - more importantly - its success in re-positioning its overall lending portfolio without changing or adding to its risk appetite. The bank's baa2 Asset Risk score thus reflects both the underlying improvement in the bank's problem loan ratio to 2.3% as of yearend 2015 (€571 million of impaired assets, down from €616 million in 2014) as well as continued uncertainties regarding the expansion of BAWAG's international corporate and CRE portfolios. Whilst the historic performance of the acquired portfolios has been very solid, we caution that the aforementioned exposures can trigger large losses in a highly adverse macroeconomic scenario, especially given that these exposures represent a significant proportion of the bank's Tier 1 capital. BAWAG displayed total credit and securities exposures of €36.6 billion as of 31 December 2015. The bank has a sizeable corporate lending and investments book (€14.5 billion, including international CRE and investments) and other high sector concentrations, such as interbank and the public sector. BAWAG's more granular exposures to the retail sector and small businesses (€14.5 billion) reflect the bank's acquisitive growth in both Austria (leasing business, mortgage lending and real estate finance) and the United Kingdom (retail mortgages). Capital ratios and core earnings have significantly improved We expect that BAWAG will continuously be able and willing to strengthen its capital adequacy ratios and thus its loss absorption capacity. However, the pace of this capital build-up is anticipated to slow meaningfully owing to high dividend payouts to the bank's owners that we expect to continue at a slightly lower payout ratio in coming years. The potential to deliver sustained solid profitability levels despite pressure from the persistently low interest-rate environment supports this change in the bank's capital retention policy. With a fully-loaded CET1 ratio of 14.0% as of 31 March 2016 (2015: 13.2%, 2014: 12.1%, 2013: 9.4%), BAWAG holds a further improved capital cushion. The ratio benefitted from the adoption of the internal ratings-based approach and risk reductions during 2013 and 2014. The quality of capital also improved significantly during 2014, as BAWAG paid back the remaining participation capital of the Republic of Austria (Aa1 stable1), redeemed outstanding minorities and raised another €125 million in core capital from its 3 6 July 2016 BAWAG P.S.K.: Update Following Lowering of Macro Profile MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS owners. Further, BAWAG fully redeemed its non-Basel III-compliant hybrid capital in June 2015. In our view, the remaining - albeit considered manageable - tail risk would be a potentially unfavourable court ruling or settlement agreement with the City of Linz (unrated). Our expectation of lower capital retention to continue in 2016 and potentially beyond and remaining tail risks result in a negative adjustment to the bank's Capital score to a3. For 2015, BAWAG reported a strong €418 million net profit, up 25% year-over-year, and largely driven by a 7% increase in net interest income. Moreover, a 44% year-over-year reduction of risk charges and continued strong cost control supported the result. We expect that the bank will be able to report annual net income above prior years' average levels over the next one or two years, which is not yet fully capturing BAWAG's earnings potential in our assigned baa1 Profitability score. Strong access to stable retail deposits supports funding and liquidity profile We expect that BAWAG will be able to maintain a balanced liquidity profile. Liquid assets declined during 2015 owing to declining interbank exposures and we expect a stable development in 2016. Furthermore, BAWAG's liquid assets partly consist of corporate and peripheral euro-area bonds, largely exposed to highly-rated investment-grade issuers. Our unadjusted baa2 Liquidity Resources score captures the underlying quality of the liquidity portfolio and also reflects our expectation of a stable liquid banking assets/total tangible banking assets ratio going forward. BAWAG's funding profile is sound, despite the bank's policy of favouring variable-rate products. Customer deposits grew by 3% year-over-year to €21.7 billion or 61% of total assets as of 31 December 2015. The bank's main funding sources are retail and, to a lesser extent, corporate deposits, which together account for most of its total funding base. The bank also replaced maturing senior unsecured debt issuances with interbank exposures (largely central bank funding) and covered bonds during 2015 as part of its return optimisation efforts. The bank's loan-to deposit ratio stood at 114% at year-end 2015 (2014: 103%, 2013: 95%), largely reflecting the bank's take-over of the UK retail mortgage portfolio in December 2015. We have incorporated these considerations in our unadjusted baa1 Funding Structure score. Less supportive operating environment following downgrade of Austrian Macro Profile On 27 June, we lowered the Macro Profile of Austria to Strong+ from Very Strong-, due to a change in the Banking Country Risk to Very Strong - from Very Strong. As a result, the weighted Macro Profile of BAWAG also declined to Strong+ from Very Strong-. BAWAG's Strong+ Macro Profile reflects that close to two thirds of the bank's asset exposures relate to the domestic Austrian market, with the majority of its non-domestic exposures concentrated on Western European countries with equal or stronger Macro Profiles. The decline in operating conditions for BAWAG leads to a one notch decline in the assigned asset risk score, however, this change does not materially reduce the continued upward pressure on the bank's BCA underpinned by continued improvements in the financials of BAWAG during the first quarter of 2016. These improvements include an increase in the bank's fully-loaded Common Equity Tier 1 ratio to 14.0% from 13.2% as of December 2015, which leads to a notch improvement in the bank's capital score. Notching Considerations Loss Given Failure (LGF) Analysis BAWAG is subject to the Austrian Bank Resolution and Recovery Directive (BaSAG), which we consider an Operational Resolution Regime. We therefore apply our Advanced LGF analysis, considering the risks faced by the different debt and deposit classes across the liability structure at failure. We assume residual tangible common equity of 3% and losses post-failure of 8% of tangible banking assets, a 25% run-off in "junior" wholesale deposits, a 5% run-off in preferred deposits, and assign a 25% probability to deposits being preferred to senior unsecured debt. BAWAG's A3 long-term deposit, issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings therefore reflect the likely reduction in expected loss resulting from the substantial volume of wholesale deposits and senior unsecured debt at failure, leading to a two-notch rating uplift from its baa2 adjusted BCA. Our LGF analysis further indicates a high loss-given-failure for subordinated debt classes, leading us to position their assessment one notch below the adjusted BCA. Absent of government support uplift assigned to this particular debt class, BAWAG's subordinated bonds are rated Baa3. 4 6 July 2016 BAWAG P.S.K.: Update Following Lowering of Macro Profile MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Government Support We assess the probability of government support for BAWAG as low, despite the bank's solid national market shares (in terms of loans and deposits) as well as the bank's importance to the payment and clearing systems. For Austria, in contrast to other EU countries and reflective of government measures implemented since 2014, we assign a low level of support for the senior debt and deposit ratings of its banks. As a consequence, government support does not benefit BAWAG's ratings. 5 6 July 2016 BAWAG P.S.K.: Update Following Lowering of Macro Profile FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE Rating Methodology and Scorecard Factors Exhibit 3 BAWAG P.S.K. Macro Factors Weighted Macro Profile Strong + 100% Historic Ratio Macro Adjusted Score Credit Trend Assigned Score Key driver #1 Key driver #2 Solvency Asset Risk Problem Loans / Gross Loans 2.9% a2 ←→ baa3 Sector concentration Litigation risk Capital TCE / RWA 16.1% aa2 ←→ a3 Capital retention Access to capital Profitability Net Income / Tangible Assets 0.9% baa1 ←→ baa1 Return on assets Financial Profile Factor Combined Solvency Score Liquidity Funding Structure Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets Liquid Resources Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets Combined Liquidity Score Financial Profile Business Diversification Opacity and Complexity Corporate Behavior Total Qualitative Adjustments Sovereign or Affiliate constraint: Scorecard Calculated BCA range Assigned BCA Affiliate Support notching Adjusted BCA Instrument Class Counterparty Risk Assessment Deposits Senior unsecured bank debt Dated subordinated bank debt a1 baa1 22.1% baa1 ←→ baa1 Extent of market funding reliance 16.7% baa2 ←→ baa2 Stock of liquid assets baa1 Loss Given Failure notching 3 2 2 -1 Additional notching 0 0 0 0 baa1 baa1 0 0 0 0 Aa1 a3-baa2 baa2 0 baa2 Preliminary Rating Assessment a2 (cr) a3 a3 baa3 Government Support notching Local Currency rating 0 0 0 0 A2 (cr) A3 A3 Baa3 Foreign Currency rating -A3 A3 -- Source: Moody's Financial Metrics 6 6 July 2016 BAWAG P.S.K.: Update Following Lowering of Macro Profile FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE Ratings Exhibit 4 Category BAWAG P.S.K. Outlook Bank Deposits Baseline Credit Assessment Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment Counterparty Risk Assessment Issuer Rating Senior Unsecured Subordinate -Dom Curr ST Issuer Rating Moody's Rating Positive A3/P-2 baa2 baa2 A2(cr)/P-1(cr) A3 A3 Baa3 P-2 Source: Moody's Investors Service Profile BAWAG P.S.K is a universal bank domiciled in Austria. It offers a range of retail and corporate banking products, including deposittaking, loans and investment services. Moreover, it provides international business products, such as commercial real-estate financing, capital market solutions as well as securities and asset management services. While the bank operates primarily in Austria, it also has a presence in core Western European markets. In October 2014, it opened a branch office in London to support its international operations. The bank holds total assets of €35.5 billion as of 31 December 2015 and serves approximately 1.6 million customers through a nationwide network of about 480 branches which are operated in cooperation with Oesterreichische Post AG (Austrian Post, unrated). BAWAG holds a 5.6% market share in terms of key deposit products in Austria as of 31 December 2015. As of 31 December 2015, the bank's major shareholders were Cerberus Capital Management L.P. (Cerberus, approximately 52% stake) and GoldenTree Asset Management L.P. (GoldenTree, approximately 40%). About Moody's Bank Scorecard Our Scorecard is designed to capture, express and explain in summary form our Rating Committee's judgment. When read in conjunction with our research, a fulsome presentation of our judgment is expressed. As a result, the output of our Scorecard may materially differ from that suggested by raw data alone (though it has been calibrated to avoid the frequent need for strong divergence). The Scorecard output and the individual scores are discussed in rating committees and may be adjusted up or down to reflect conditions specific to each rated entity. Endnotes 1 The rating shown is Austria's senior unsecured rating and outlook 7 6 July 2016 BAWAG P.S.K.: Update Following Lowering of Macro Profile MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS © 2016 Moody's Corporation, Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moody's Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved. CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES ("MIS") ARE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS PUBLISHED BY MOODY'S ("MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS") MAY INCLUDE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. 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("MJKK") is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly-owned by Moody's Overseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO. Moody's SF Japan K.K. ("MSFJ") is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK. MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization ("NRSRO"). Therefore, credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and, consequently, the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under U.S. laws. MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No. 2 and 3 respectively. MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for appraisal and rating services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY200,000 to approximately JPY350,000,000. MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements. REPORT NUMBER 1032663 8 6 July 2016 BAWAG P.S.K.: Update Following Lowering of Macro Profile FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE Contacts Bernhard Held, CFA VP – Senior Analyst bernhard.held@moodys.com Camilla P Tenn Copy Editor 9 6 July 2016 CLIENT SERVICES 49-69-70730-973 Torsten-Alexander Thebes Associate Analyst Americas 1-212-553-1653 Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077 Japan 81-3-5408-4100 EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 BAWAG P.S.K.: Update Following Lowering of Macro Profile
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