Morning Briefing Global Economic Trading Calendar

A Eurex publication focused on European financial markets, produced by MNl
Morning Briefing
October 6, 2014
There is a quieter start to the coming
week, with Monday seeing largely
second tier data. However there is
will be a smattering of central bank
appearances to keep traders on their
toes.
Bundesbank Vice-President Claudia
Buch and Bundesbank Board
member Andreas Dombret will take
part in a public hearing of the
Bundesbank financial committee, in
Berlin at 1100GMT.
Early data sees the release of the
German August manufacturing
orders at 0600GMT, to be followed
by the German August VDMA
machine orders at 0800GMT.
The US calendar gets underway
from 1400GMT, when the Fed
Reserve releases its first report on
Labor Market Conditions Index. Also
due at 1400GMT is the September
employment trends index and the
Canadian September IVEY PMI.
The UK calendar gets underway at
0800GMT, when the SMMT
September car registrations data is
published, followed by the BOE H1
housing equity withdrawal data at
0830GMT.
Bundesbank Board member Andreas
Dombret will give a speech on stable
monetary union, in Washington at
1600GMT.
At the same time, the EMU October
sentiment index will be published.
Global Economic Trading Calendar
Treasury Secretary Jack Lew chairs
meeting of Financial Stability
Oversight Council, with Federal
Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and
others in Washington.
At 0030GNT, Kansas City Fed
President Esther George will deliver
a speech on the economy, in
Albuquerque, New Mexico.
Sovereign bond issuance in the
Eurozone this week slows down -only Austria, Germany and Ireland
due to come to the market with
supply estimated to come in at
E6.85bln vs E28.95bln sold last
week.
Markets
FOREX: A relatively subdued
morning in Asia-Pacific FX markets
this morning as a new week gets
underway. Many countries in the
region are closed today for holidays,
including China, which is into its
second-last day of the "golden week"
holidays. Overall tone has been
profit-taking against the US dollar's
gains following last Friday's strong
US September non-farm payrolls
data. Dollar-yen was last at Y109.62
after trading a Y109.55 to Y109.87
range this morning, compared with
Friday's US close of Y109.77.
Aussie-dollar was last at $0.8696,
near the of a $0.8653 to $0.8700
range this morning. The aussie
closed at $0.8675 on Friday. Eurodollar meanwhile was last at
$1.2518, also near the top of a
$1.2504 to $1.2521 range but not
very much changed from the Friday
close of $1.2516.
US INDEX FUTURES: US stock
index futures are trading with a bid
tone during Monday's Asian session,
with gains in Hong Kong stocks
aiding the positive sentiment, despite
the ongoing protests with tensions
rising over the weekend. Currently
the Dec S&P futures are trading up
5.10 points at 1965.40, the Dec
Nasdaq is trading up 13.00 points at
4029.00, while the Dec Dow is
trading up 44 points at 16,695.
been told to evacuate due to the risk
of landslides, NHK reports. The
Nikkei 225 has closed for lunch up
1.30% or 203.89 points at 15,912.54,
while the Topix closed up 1.34% of
17.17 points at 1,299.71.
US STOCKS CLOSE: U.S. stocks
rose in response to the upbeat US
jobs report and were buoyant at
Friday's close. The DJIA closed up
209 pts at 17,009.69, the Nasdaq
Composite up 45 pts at 4,475.624
and the S&P 500 up 22 pts at
1,967.90-day moving average, at
1,975.46.
GOLD: Spot gold last down $4.25 at
$1187.10 per ounce, in a $1183.23
to $1191.70 range so far this
morning in Asia, after touching near
a 4yr low in early Asian trading.
$1180 is major support, as a double
bottom from June and December
2013. The USD is mixed today in thin
trading, but the technical picture for
gold looks for prices back to $1080
then $1000 if $1180 breaks.
JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks
have concluded Monday's AM
session sharply higher, buoyed by a
weaker yen and following Wall
Street's strong gains on Friday.
However, trading has been subdued
as Typhoon Phanfone heads
towards Tokyo, resulting in many
participants staying home.
Highlighting the risks, residents of
the central ward of Minato have also
OIL: WTI crude oil futures for Nov'14
delivery last up $0.13 at $89.87 per
barrel, after a $89.39 to $89.90
range in Asia today, on low volume
with Singapore and Australian public
holidays, as well as China's weeklong break. Prices have recovered
slightly from Friday's lower levels, but
the overall picture of increasing
supply and only moderate demand
has rallies being sold..
Technical Analysis
BUND: (Z14) Bulls Dominate While 148.78-149.21 Region Supports
*RES 4: 151.45 Weekly Bollinger band top
*RES 3: 151.24 Low Aug 28 now resistance
*RES 2: 150.76 Low Aug 26 now resistance
*RES 1: 150.40 High Oct 1
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 149.94
*SUP 1: 149.45 Low Oct 3
*SUP 2: 149.21 Low Sept 29, 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 148.78 Low Sept 24
*SUP 4: 148.57 Low Sept 22
*COMMENTARY: The 149.81 support was taken out Friday
but the lack of follow through and strong bounce back above
sees bulls retain some hope. The 148.78-149.21 support
region is key this week with bears needing a close below
148.78 to end bullish hopes and shift immediate focus to the
147.63-93 region. Bulls continue to look for a close above
150.40 to reconfirm bullish pressure and retain focus on the
2014 and record highs.
EUROSTOXX: Layers Of Resistance Looking Daunting
*RES 4: 3259.2 High Sept 25
*RES 3: 3224.7 21-DMA
*RES 2: 3188.4 Low Oct 1 now resistance
*RES 1: 3158.5 200-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3133.4
*SUP 1: 3101.1 61.8% Fibonacci 2977.5-3301.1
*SUP 2: 3065.2 Low Aug 20
*SUP 3: 3056.6 Low Aug 18
*SUP 4: 3028.6 Low Aug 15
*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from the Sept highs continued
last week with Stoxx50 closing below 55, 100 & 200-DMAs
following a sharp lower and bearish close Thursday. Bulls
need to see a close above the 200-DMA to confirm an
easing of bearish pressure whereas a close above the 21DMA is needed to confirm an end to bearish hopes and shift
focus back to the 200-DMA. Bearish focus has now returned
to retests of the Aug monthly low and then 2014 lows5.
.
.
..
.
.
Eurex Futures Market Close
Contact MNI:
Clive Tillbrook – European Managing Editor + 44 207 862 7400, clive@marketnews.com
MNI Sales - uksales@marketnews.com, nysales@marketnews.com, asiasales@marketnews.com
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