REBOUNDS NET FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS
Transcription
REBOUNDS NET FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS
THE WEEKLY Thursday 15th Oct. 2015 Issue # 39 NET FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS REBOUNDS Egypt’s net foreign direct investments rose significantly by 54.7 % (Y/Y) in Fiscal Year (FY) 2014/2015 to register $ 6.4 billion, the highest level since the 2011 revolution. The massive increase follows fiscal and legislative reforms adopted by Egypt since the beginning of FY 2014/15. European Union investments topped the investment inflows in FY 2014/2015 with $ 6.9 billion investments, where the United Kingdom’s investments represented the highest share of 77.8% with $ 5.4 billion investments, followed by Belgium ($ 663.8 million). Inflows from Arab countries increased by 51.6 % (Y/Y)in FY 2014/2015 to $ 2.7 billion ,where the United Arab Emirates’ investments represented the highest share of total Arab countries’ inflows (52%) recording $1.4 billion, followed by Saudi Arabia $ 649.1 million. “Egypt is targeting $ 10 billion in foreign direct investment for the current financial year. The government hopes to cut unemployment from 11.2 %to 10.6 % this financial year” Ashraf Salman Minister Of Investment Egypt Independent 13th October 2015 IN THIS ISSUE... Banking Sector Updates Budget Deficit Reduction Measures Egypt’s Economy Grew By 4.1 % In Fy2014/2015 Two New Exploration Licenses In The Egyptian Offshore Egypt will receive a $ 3 billion loan from the World Bank Net International Reserves Registered $16.3 Billion A WORLD OF REAL POSSIBILITIES 1 www.alexbank.com BANKING SECTOR UPDATES The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) released the latest updates about the performance of the banking sector thorough its monthly bulletin that shows the following: ITEM( EGP MILLION) Securities & investments in TBs Loan & discount balances for customers Assets Provisions Total deposits JUL-15 JUN-15 JUL-14 M/M % Y/Y % 1,015,348 726,274 2,268,366 66,358 1,773,768 1,016,025 717,999 2,198,979 66,049 1,734,178 830,089 588,003 1,853,617 63,233 1,453,933 -0.1% 1.2% 3.2% 0.5% 2.3% 22.3% 23.5% 22.4% 4.9% 22% Prime Minister Sherif Ismail announced on Saturday that the government has been tasked with reducing the budget deficit by 1.5 % annually. “The government plans to reduce the energy subsidization to EGP 61 billion during the current fiscal year and to get rid of 70 % of subsidies over the next five years, but will continue to ensure that the neediest people get assistance” Sherif Ismail Prime Minister Al Watan News 10th October 2015 Investment Minister Ashraf Salman announced that Egypt’s economy grew by 4.1 % in FY2014/2015 and is projected to grow by 5% to 5.2 % in FY 2015/2016. The Italian oil and gas company (Eni) has been awarded two new exploration licenses in the Egyptian offshore of the Mediterranean Sea, North El Hammad and North Ras El Esh. The company was awarded a 37.5 % participating interest and operatorship in North El Hammad in partnership with BP (37.5 %) and Total (25 %) and 50% participating interest in North Ras El Esh along with BP (50%) which will act as an operator. “These two new concession agreements follow the recent award of the deep water Karawan and North Leil blocks, strengthening Eni’s presence in Egypt, a country of historic and strategic importance for the company, and further relaunching its exploration activities after the recent and important successes of Nidoco NW and Zohr” Eni’s Press Release 12th October 2015 Finance Minister Hani Qadri announced that Egypt will receive a $ 3 billion loan from the World Bank in installments over the next three years to support the state’s budget. Egypt signed a deal with France to buy two Mistral warships that each can carry 16 helicopters, four landing craft and 13 tanks. The deal, estimated at about € 950 million, was signed in the presence of the Egyptian President Abdel Fattah AL-Sisi and French Prime Minister Manuel Valls. “France believes the world needs a strong and stable Egypt... we all have a common enemy, ISIS” Manuel Valls French Prime Minister Yahoo News 10th October 2015 Egypt’s net international reserves continued to decline for three consecutive months to register $16.3 billion at the end of September down from $18.1 billion a month earlier which is considered credit negative according to the global credit rating agency Moody’s Investors. “The drop reflects continued dependence of Egypt’s Balance of Payments on external donor support, which is credit negative for the country’s external liquidity position” Moody’s Investors The Cairo Post 12th October 2015 2 www.alexbank.com Egypt’s Central Bank Governor Hisham Ramez was chosen by the IMF and the World Bank as the best Central Bank Governor Of The Year For Middle East And North Africa during their annual meetings held in Peru from 8-11 October. The choice of Ramez was based on the measures he took to put Egypt on the right economic path. “After some initial controls, which in the circumstances were reasonable, he [Ramez] has allowed the currency to ease, to create a more open market and weaken the black market in dollars” George Abed Director For The Middle East And Africa At The Institute Of International Finance Emerging Markets 9th October 2015 The Egyptian armed forces started the second phase of the army’s operation “Martyr’s Right” in North Sinai, including the commencement of various development projects and the implementation of reconstructions in North Sinai in the cities of Sheikh Zuweid, Arish, and Rafah, among others. On the 22nd of September the armed forces announced the end of the first stage that included the killing of over 500 militants and destroying various terrorist refuges and weaponry storage facilities in North Sinai. An Egyptian court ruled to release Gamal and Alaa Mubarak, sons of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, from prison after completing their three-year sentences on embezzlement charges related to a case known as the “presidential palaces case”. 3 www.alexbank.com EGYPT AT GLANCE EXCHANGE RATES 13.00 12.00 11.00 15th Oct. 2015 W/W* M/M Y/Y 10.00 YTD 9.00 USD 7.91 1.28% 1.28% 10.33% 13.37% 8.00 EURO 9.06 2.98% 2.71% -1.45% -5.51% 7.00 Sterling Pound 12.24 2.11% 1.12% 6.76% 5.91% 6.00 5.00 * Compared to 8 of October 2015 tt EGP per USD EGP per Euro EGP per Pound Sterling 11000 STOCK MARKET 10000 15th Oct. 2015 EGX 30 7,603.36 W/W* M/M Y/Y YTD 1.5% 6% -14.51% -13% tt * Compared to 8 of October 2015 EGX 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 EGX 30 TB’S AUCTION EGX 70 (Rel.) EGX 100 (Rel.) INTEREST RATES Current* Previous** Auction Date Maturity Average Yield % 11 Oct 2015 91 Days 11.061 Overnight Deposit Rate 15 Oct 2015 182 Days 11.432 11 Oct 2015 266 Days 15 Oct 2015 357 Days Overnight Lending Rate 8.75% 9.75% 9.25% 10.25% -50 bp -50 bp 11.446 Corridor Rate 9.25% 9.5% -25 bp 11.537 * Since January 2015 ** Since July 2014 FX-AUCTION RATES Auction Date US $ 15th Oct. 2015 7.8301 8th Oct. 2015 7.7301 4 www.alexbank.com Zewail City, Cairo T : +2 02 2399 2000 E : research@alexbank.com Head of Research Emil Eskander emil.eskander@alexbank.com Research Manager Hemat El Masry hemat.elmasry@alexbank.com Senior Associate: Sahar Ezz El Arab sahar.ezzelarab@alexbank.com © Copyright Notice. The Weekly is a publication of ALEXBANK. No part of this publication may be reproduced or duplicated without the prior consent of ALEXBANK.This publication constitutes a summary of published news, quotes and economic indicators. This material does not constitute analytical economic research nor should be treated as such. All charts and graphs are from publicly available sources or proprietary data. Any views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the opinion of ALEXBANK. The news, views and quotes within this publication are gathered from sources deemed to be reliable but which have not been independently verified. ALEXBANK does not make any guarantee to the accuracy or reliability of such information. AlexBank shall not be liable for any losses or damages incurred or suffered as a result of using its publications in part or in their entirety. 5 www.alexbank.com