hanoi market insights – q1 2015

Transcription

HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS – Q1 2015
Presented by: Marc Townsend, Managing Director of CBRE Vietnam
Friday, April 3, 2015
IF IT’S TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE, IT’S TOO GOOD
TO BE TRUE!
2
CBRE | HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
VIETNAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Vietnam GDP Growth Rate
Quarterly
5.0%
5.3%
6.1%
7.0%
6.0%
8.4% 8.2% 8.5%
7.8%
6.8%
6.3%
6.0%
5.9%
5.3%
5.0%
Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15
5.4%
“
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office.
3
ANZ has revised its GDP
growth forecast for
Vietnam in 2015 and 2016
upwards, to 6.5% for both
years from the previous
6.2% and 6.4%,
respectively.
”
POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR VIETNAM ECONOMY
Vietnam among Top Fastest Growing Economies
Breakdown of components of average annual real GDP growth (2014 – 2050)
Source: PwC Analysis, The World in 2050: Will the shift in global economic power continue, February 2015.
4
CAPTURING A GREATER SHARE OF GLOBAL FLOWS
Vietnam and Myanmar have fast growth middle and affluent class
Source: Boston Consulting Group, December 2013.
Business Process Outsourcing Locaion Index Map
1 Vietnam
Source: McKinsey&Company, November 2014.
5
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, March 2015.
Vietnam Car Sales
Import duty on cars from ASEAN countries
will decrease from 50% to 0% by 2018.
170%
120,000
120%
80,000
70%
40,000
20%
-
Growth rate (%)
No. of car
160,000
-30%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Registration fee reduced from 10% 20% to 10% - 15% in April.
No. of cars selling
2M
2015
Target credit growth
2015: 13-15%
% change YoY
Source: Vietnam Automobile Manufacturer’s Association, March 2015.
2M: 0.68%
2014: 14%
Vietnam Retail Sales
42%
35%
28%
21%
14%
7%
Growth Rate (%)
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
Retails and Services Turnover
Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office, Q1 2015.
Q1 2015
2014P
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
0%
2003
Turnover (Trillion dong)
Annual Car Sales:
Vietnam: 150,000 units
Thailand: 850,000 units
Indonesia: 1,250,000 units
Retails and Services Turnover Growth
6
FALLING OIL PRICE TRIGGERS TRADE DEFICIT?
Vietnam Interbank Exchange Rate
Dollar, Gold and Oil Chart - Last Ten Years
20,703 20,803
21,458
21,246
21,036
+20% y-o-y vs. EUR
and Yen
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
US$1,186/oz
-8% y-o-y
Dec-10
18,932
Vietnam Trade Balance
US$ billion
US$47.4/barrel
-47% y-o-y
Compares the movement in the dollar index (major trading partners) with gold and oil prices over the last ten
years. The three series are compared using standard deviation.
Source: Macrotrends, April 1, 2015.
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
Export
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Import
PMI
VN-Index
7
3M
2015
VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC
Exchange Rate
Vietnam Government Bond Yield Movement
150
JPY
INR
AUD
130
MYR
THB
120
110
SGD-TWD
PHP
VND
KRW-HKD
NZD
CNY
100
90
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Local currency per USD
140
80
2011
2012
2013
2014 2015
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2015.
8
BANK CUT RATES ON THE BACK OF LOW INFLATION
Vietnam Interest Rates and Inflation
Mortgage rate for the first 12 months:
25
•
•
•
Interest rate (%)
20
15
Jan. 15
9.49%
7.99%
8.90%
Techcombank
Vietcombank
ACB
Mar. 15
7.99%
7.5%
7.5%
10
5
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Average CPI (y-o-y)
Lending rate
2012
2013
2014
2015
Deposit rate
HSBC Bank has predicted that the central bank would mull another cut of
the open market operations (OMO) rate to beef up domestic demand and
growth thanks to low inflation this year.
•
Lending rate: Average lending rate for enterprises.
Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office, State Bank of Vietnam.
9
NEW REAL ESTATE FIRMS ON SHARP RISE
1. Newly registered Real
2. Newly registered Art,
companies
Estate companies +49% y-o-y;
Entertainment
and Recreation
+127% y-o-y.
19,000 newly registered
4% y-o-y
2,055 firms were resolved
9% y-o-y
16,175 suspended operation
14% y-o-y
4,376 resumed operation
20% y-o-y
Novaland to go public end of 2015
Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office.
* All the above articles were retrieved in March 2015.
10
SOUTH KOREA & JAPAN – VIETNAM’S BIGGEST
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTORS
Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment, 3M 2015
7%
6%
Manufacturing
11%
Real estate
Wholesale, retail sale and
repair industries
76%
Others
Pelosi, Bipartisan Delegation Conclude
Two-Day Visit to Vietnam
Source: Ministry of Planning and Investment.
Vietnam overseas remittance hit US$12
billion in 2014, accounting for 8% of
Vietnam’s GDP, up 13% y-o-y.
11
INFRASTRUCTURE
Hanoi
HCMC
Inauguration of
Construction started on Metro
Nhat Tan Bridge and
Line No. 2 at Tham Luong depot
Vo Nguyen Giap Boulevard
04 January 2015
16 January 2015
Inauguration of Terminal 2 – Noi
Ground breaking of Thu Thiem 2
Bai Int’l Airport
Bridge
04 February 2015
04 January 2015
Ground breaking of
Full opening of Long Thanh - Dau
Trung Hoa – Ring Road No. 3
Giay Highway.
interchange tunnel
18 January 2015
08 February 2015
Several sections of Ring Road
Estimated investment cost for
No. 1 & 2 to be completed by
Long Thanh International
Q4/2015.
Airport project to reduce by 15%
Q4/15
25 February 2015
Q4/2015
12
INFRASTRUCTURE - HANOI
Roads widening: highly appreciated, especially by real estate
developers
Extended Tran Phu (Ba Dinh District)
Extended Nguyen Van Huyen (Cau Giay District)
Length
450m
Length
566m
Inauguration
Feb 2015
Inauguration
Feb 2015
Investment capital
VND225 billion (US$10.5 million)
Investment capita
VND969 billion (US$45 million)
Source: Vnexpress.net.
13
HANOI METRO LINES
Cat Linh Depot
Line Nhon – Hanoi Station
Expected completion: 2018
Line Ha Dong – Cat Linh
Expected completion: 2016
14
COASTAL CITIES
Hai Phong and Quang Ninh: infrastructure developments
improved thanks to increasing FDI
Hanoi – Hai Phong highway (105km)
Cai Bi Int’l Airport
Construction is very active even during Tet
New terminal: ground breaking in January 2015
Expected completion
Capacity
4 million pax per year
Expected completion
Q2/2016
Q4/2015
46 hectares - campus settles in Trang Due IP,
Hai Phong
“Wages are one factor... but the main one is
to ensure quality, as well as logistics"
15
DA NANG FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
Slight decreased FDI to real estate
Accumulative FDI structure as of 2014
3%
“
2%
5%
Vacation Real Estate
Manufacturing
Education
34%
56%
Real estate accounted for about
56% of the total new capital
in Da Nang in 2014, a 0.7%
decrease y-o-y.
”
Ipc.danang.gov.com
Construction
Accomodation
services, F&B
New FDI Projects in 2015 (23/3/2015)
Nation
Korea
Japan
Italy
UK
Singapore
USA
No. of project
6
3
1
1
1
1
Capital ($US)
29,541,700
2,146,816
84,309
47,259
10,000
10,000

%
92.8%
6.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
16
92.8% of the total FDI capital
invested in 2015 from Korea

Tri Dragon Ltd – Transportation

Lotte Viet Nam - Retail

Sun Kim Ltd – Real Estate
BCI NUMBERS
All future projects (2015 – 2030), y-o-y change
Projects under construction, y-o-y change
2015 YTD vs 2014
2014 vs 2013
Percentage change
Percentage change
2015 YTD vs 2014
300%
200%
100%
0%
-100%
Projects
Under
Construction
HCMC Hanoi
Da
Nang
Can
Tho
200%
100%
0%
-100%
Khanh Vung
Hai
Hoa
Tau Phong
2014 vs 2013
300%
All Future
Projects
(2015-2030)
HCMC Hanoi
Da
Nang
Can
Tho
Khanh Vung
Hoa
Tau
Hai
Phong
HCMC
Hanoi
Da
Nang
Can
Tho
Nha
Trang
Vung
Tau
Hai
Phong
Office
202
269
58
28
11
35
17
7
Retail
98
140
37
7
14
20
11
10
0
Hospitality
and SA
33
35
29
4
27
19
5
2
13
2
Residential
249
287
79
6
14
21
10
28
54
17
Total
582
731
203
45
66
95
43
HCMC
Hanoi
Da
Nang
Can
Tho
Nha
Trang
Vung
Tau
Hai
Phong
Office
137
103
21
16
8
18
8
Retail
61
43
17
5
6
13
Hospitality
and SA
20
9
15
1
12
Residential
163
91
18
4
Total
381
246
71
26
Source: www.bciasia.com; CBRE Vietnam, March 2015
Source: www.bciasia.com; CBRE Vietnam, March 2015
17
CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
Recovery Continues and High-end Apartment Sales Come Back
New launches up 82% y-o-y
New launches up 163% y-o-y
4,880
Hanoi
HCMC
units
2,600
units
1,959
16,200
units
units
16,200
units
units
Q1 2014 Q1 2015
Q1 2014 Q1 2015
Sales doubled y-o-y
Sales up 138% y-o-y
3,080
1,500
5,150
6,484
units
2,724
units
units
units
Q1 2014 Q1 2015
Q1 2014 Q1 2015
18
2015 Q1 New Launches – The Expansion of High-end & Affordable
Hanoi
4,880 units
18 projects
2 project
223 units
Hoai Duc
1 project
198 units Cau Giay
1 project
50 units
3 projects
229 units
HCMC
~5,150 units
17 projects
1 project
700 units
1 project
282 units
2 projects
424 units
2 projects
508 units
6 projects
1360 units
Dong Da
1 project
495 units
Tu Liem
2 projects
230 units
2 projects
275 units
2 projects Ha Dong
270 units
Hoang Mai
2 projects
678 units
5 projects
3,297 units
2 projects
473 units
2 projects
337 units
3%
15%
2%
18%
2%
15%
1%
2%
1%
37%
31%
32%
Luxury
63%
63%
57%
Luxury
High-end
31%
Mid-end
17%
2009
2011
27%
High-end
Mid-end
Affordable
20%
31%
26%
2015
31%
37%
40%
Before 2010
Mid-2010
After 2015
Affordable
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
19
Sales Momentum Remains Strong Despite A Long Tet Break
Sold Units
High-end
Mid-end
Luxury
Low-end
Q1
High-end
Mid-end
Affordable
201
5
Luxury
Q3
Q2
2014
Q4
Q1
Q4
HCMC
 103%
Q3
 138%
y-o-y
Q1
Q2
2013
Hanoi
y-o-y
Q3
Q2
2012
Q4
Q1
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
20
In Some Developments, Developers Are Increasing Prices
High-end primary prices, Hanoi
Asking Price
150–250
(US$
units/launch
psm)
High-end primary prices, HCMC
250–350 units/launch
350–450 units/launch
$2,000
$2,400
$1,500
$2,000
$1,000
$1,600
$500
$1,200
$0
$800
2006
2008
2010
2012
2004
2014
2006
>500 units/launch
2008
2010
2012
2014
•
Primary prices for high-end and affordable projects witnessed a slight increase
•
Seen in projects in good locations, reputable developers, showing good
construction progress; not across the board!
21
TRACKING PRICE – UNDER-CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
DISCOVERY COMPLEX
Asking price: US$ 1,636
Achieved price: US$ 1,519
Unit size: 87-185 sqm
Total unit: 500
GOLDMARK CITY
Total unit: 5,000
GOLDEN WESTLAKE
WATERMARK TOWER
Total unit: 178
Total unit: 370
AVENUE PARK
Under planning
HONG KONG TOWER
Total unit: 260
DIAMOND FLOWER TOWER
Total unit: 228
HOA BINH GREEN CITY
Unit size: 68,9-140 sqm
Total unit: 700
FLC COMPLEX
Total unit: 483
GOLDEN WEST RESIDENCE
Asking price: US$1,317
Unit size: 75-107.5
Total unit: 600
THE ARTEMIS
Under planning
MULBERRY LANE 2
Under planning
BOOYOUNG
Under planning
22
Note: Prices exclude VAT
Buyers in the Affordable Segment
Breakdown of Monthly Household Income
63%
40%
long-term employees
with stable income
28%
19%
6%
Below
US$500
US$500 $1,000
US$1,000 - US$1,500 $1,500
$2,000
>3/4
from 25 to 45
years old
64%
want to buy twobedroom units
7%
Above
US$2,000
Price
Key Factors to Choose a New House
Living environment
Surveyed from more than 2,000 Ehome customers
Source: Nam Long, Q3 2014.
23
Buyers in the Affordable Segment
Bank Loan Support
81%
want to apply bank loan for
new home purchase
56%
expect a stable interest rate
29%
prefer a 20-year loan payment
Expected Promotion in a New House Purchase
34%
prefer a direct discount on the price
31%
prefer a longer payment term
Surveyed from more than 2,000 Ehome customers
Source: Nam Long, Q3 2014.
24
HCMC CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
Foreign Investors Come for JV.
High-end Oversupply??
Launch event, December 2014
“Premium Affordable Housing”
3 months later, March 2015
25
Expected Strong Supply in 2015
HCMC
Hanoi
~22,000 units
The West
– 43%
Midtown
– 8%
South
West –
21%
16%
NORTH
~13,000 units
The
East/
South
East –
28%

HCMC: The East and the South continue to accommodate most developments.

Hanoi: The West still has the most supply in pipeline – but the East and South
East is becoming an attractive cluster
26
RETAIL – VIETNAM NEW
ENTRY/EXPANSION
MOST ACTIVE RETAIL
SECTOR IN APAC
Increasing demand from upper-middle
class lures more brands
5
HCMC
5
HANOI
27
INTERNATIONAL RETAILERS EXPANSION
Asian retailers are expanding by cooperating with local retailers
AEON
Vietnam as a 2nd
most important market in SEA
BJC
BJC’s B's Mart
 bought 94 Family marts in Vietnam
 aim to expand to 300 stores by 2018
28
RETAILERS RESPONSE TO INT’L INTEGRATION
TPP, AEC are coming, how do local retailers prepare?
1
Local expansion
VinDS
New brands
2
Local retailer improves
brand identity
3
International style
29
New shopping malls
RETAIL
NEW SUPPLY AND RE-OPENING IN Q1 2015
3
2
HANOI
HCMC
SENTINEL PLACE
HOA BINH GREEN CITY
63 LY THAI TO
VINCOM THU DUC
SAIGON SQUARE 3
Hoan Kiem District
GFA: 700 sm
Hoang Mai District
NLA: 25,000 sm
Hoan Kiem District
NLA: 561 sm
Thu Duc District
GFA: 27,860 sm
District 3
GFA: 3,100 sm
Re-opened: Jan. 2015
Opened: Jan. 2015
Re-opened: Feb. 2015
30
Opened Jan. 2015
Opened: Jan. 2015
RETAIL RENTS PASSED THE BOTTOM
HCMC
Hanoi
NON-CBD
CBD
NON-CBD
2015 Q1
2015 Q1
Q4
Q4
2014
2013
2012
2011
Q3
2014
Q2
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q1
Q4
Q4
Q3
2013
Q2
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q1
Q4
Q4
Q3
2012
Q2
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q1
Q4
Q4
Q3
2011
Q2
CBD
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q1
150
100
50
0
0
50
100
150
150
100
50
0
0
50
100
150
31
RETAIL - HEALTHY OCCUPANCY RATES
Absorption (sqm)
180,000
20%
180,000
20
140,000
15%
140,000
15
100,000
10%
100,000
10
60,000
5%
60,000
5
20,000
0%
20,000
0
-20,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-20,000
-5%
Vacancy Rate (%)
HCMC
Hanoi
-5
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
32
DISTRICT 2 EMERGES AS A NEW RETAIL CLUSTER
Vincom Megamall Thao Dien
120,000 GFA sm
Open in 2016
Pearl Plaza
20,579 GFA sm
Open in 2015
Estella Heights
37,290 GFA sm
Open in 2018
T
Lexington Residence
Open in 2016
Vinhomes Central Park
59,000 GFA sm
Open in 2018
The Sun Avenue
Open in 2016
Thao Dien Pearl
20,400 GFA sm
Open in 2016
33
APAC CONSUMER SURVEY
VIETNAM
Survey online
11,000
consumers in
11 major
cities
Include 1,000
consumers in
Vietnam
Separate the
process of
shopping into
two phases
• Pre-purchase
• Purchase
HOW DO CUSTOMERS VALUE THE
IMPROVEMENTS OF SHOPPING CENTRES?
Ongoing improvements of shopping centres noticed by consumer
Large mall
60%
Small mall
54%
High street
54%
Total
57%
62%
60%
51%
59%
55%
43%
43%
62%
52%
38%
50%
66%
64%
56%
55%
42%
46%
63%
More/better catering facilities
Bigger in size with more shops open
More/better loyalty program
Introduction of free parking
None of these
58%
45%
33% 24%
52%
47%
21%
32%
5%
9%
18%
44%
28%
9%
Renovation of the centre
Addition of new international brands
More entertainment facilities
More events
Source: CBRE Asia Pacific Consumer Survey, 2014.
35
WHAT MAKES A SHOPPING CENTRE/HIGH STREET
ATTRACTIVE?
Important Factors in a Non-Food Shopping Trip
Overall
Low household income (<VND
4,000,000/month)
Mid household income (VND
4,000,000 – 20,000,000/month)
High household income
(>VND20,000,000/month)
36
HOW DO SHOPPERS REACH THEIR DESTINATION?
Private (Car + Motorcycle)
How do You Travel to Your Preferred
Shopping Destination?
Public (Bus, MRT, BTS)
Walk/Bicycle
37
JOURNEY TIME
1 to 5 mins
How Long does Your Journey to the Mall Take on Average?
6 to 15 mins
16 to 30 mins
Over 30 mins
38
INTERACTION BETWEEN ONLINE AND IN-STORE
Over the next two years:

Do less often
25% of respondents expect to shop less often in a
Do more often
No change
store;

45% - 50% of respondents said that they would
shop online more often;

Even greater proportion of consumers (69%) aged
from 55 to 64 actually think that they would use
their smartphone/tablet more frequently to shop.
Adapt strategies to boost both e-commerce and
offline business activities by
1. Leverage big data
2. Implement Online to Offline (O2O) strategies
3. Create simple and useful apps
39
OFFICE
Asking Rent – Pretty Flat
Hanoi
GRADE B
2015 Q1
2014
HCMC
GRADE A
$18
GRADE B
GRADE A
$34.2
2015 Q1 $19.1
$30
Q4
Q4
Q3
Q3
2014
Q2
Q2
Q1
Q1
Q4
Q4
Q3
Q3
2013
2013
Q2
Q2
Q1
Q1
$35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5
$0$0
$35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5
$5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35
$0$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40
Note: Hanoi’s asking rents include service charge and exclude VAT, HCMC asking rent exclude VAT and service charge
40
OFFICE
Positive Net Absorption and Decreasing Vacancy Rate
HCMC
60,000
42%
35,000
15%
50,000
36%
30,000
13%
40,000
30%
25,000
11%
20,000
9%
30,000
24%
15,000
7%
10,000
5%
5,000
3%
20,000
18%
10,000
12%
0
-10,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2013
2014
Net absorption (sm)
Net absorption (sm)
Hanoi
0
6%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2013
2015 0%
2014
1%
2015
41
OFFICE
Tenants Breakdown (based on CBRE’s enquiries in Q1 2015)
Tenants’ Origin, Hanoi
Tenant Preference, Hanoi
15Q1
36%
14Q4
32%
14Q1
32%
<100
34%
20%
45%
52%
18% 5%
39%
100-300
9%
26%
300-1000
43%
3%
33%
14Q4
14Q1
11%
<100
33%
33%
100-300
40%
Local
>1000
Foreign
Tenants’ Origin, HCMC
56%
27%
57%
60%
Tenant Preference, HCMC
15Q1
48%
33%
11%0%
27%
13%
44%
11%
300-1000
>1000
67%
11%
89%
20%
80%
Local
Foreign
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015
42
OFFICE
Future Supply
HCMC
Hanoi
HUD TOWER
Le Van Luong Str,
Cau Giay Dist.
GFA: 56,000 sm
HANDICO TOWER
Me Tri NUA, Tu Liem
Dist.
GFA: 29,040 sm
Estimated
completion: 2015
Expected
completion: 2015
789 TOWER
147 Hoang Quoc
Viet, Cau Giay
Dist.
GFA: 39,419 sm
Estimated
completion:
2015
DIAMOND FLOWER
TOWER
4 Le Van Luong, Cau
Giay Dist.
GFA: 20,000 sm
Estimated launch:
2015
GOLD VIEW
TOWER
54 Nguyen Chi
Thanh Str, Ba Dinh
Dist.
GFA: 39,348 sm
Estimated
completion: 2015
43
VIETCOMBANK
TOWER
5 Melinh Square, D1
GFA: 55,000 sm
VIETTEL OFFICE &
TRADE CENTER
285 CMT8, D10
GFA: 65,971 sm
LIM 2
158 Vo Van Tan, D3
GFA: 20,467 sm
Estimated
Estimated
Estimated
completion: Q2/2015 completion: Q1/2016 completion: Q3/2015
PEARL PLAZA
561A Dien Bien
Phu St, Ward
25, Binh Thanh.
GFA: 37,434
sm
DEUTSCHES
HAUS
Le Duan - Le
Van Huu, D1
GFA: 40,000
sm
Estimated
completion:
Q3/2015
Estimated
completion:
Q3/2017
HOSPITALITY
HCMC
HANOI
Hanoi among top 10 World’s best destinations
Higher occupancy rates in late Q1 2015
TripAdvisor: Hanoi
ranked 4th in the top
10 Travelers' Choice
Destinations.
Q1 2015 vs. Q1 2014 :
Domestic arrivals: +7.1%
International arrivals: -14.3%
3,500,000
3,000,000
The occupancy rates of many three- to five-star
hotels have stayed high, at no less than 80%
and even 90% or 100% on several days.
Arrivals
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
Travelling for business and leisure together with
fairs and exhibitions has pull visitors to HCMC.
500,000
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: GSO, CBRE Vietnam,
Q1 2015.
International
Domestic
44
HOSPITALITY
New and future supply
5,000
15
4,000
12
3,000
9
2,000
6
1,000
3
0
0
6,000
18
5,000
15
4,000
12
3,000
9
2,000
6
1,000
3
0
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1
2015
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1
2015
Number of rooms
Number of rooms
Number of projects
Number of projects
18
Number of rooms
6,000
HCMC, Total 5-star supply in Q1 2015
Number of projects
Number of rooms
Hanoi, Total 5-star supply in Q1 2015
Number of projects
APRICOT HOTEL (5-star)
INTERCONTINENTAL HANOI
LANDMARK 72 HOTEL (5-star)
THE REVERIE
SAIGON HOTEL
Le MERIDIEN HOTEL
M GALLERY HOTEL
136 Hang Trong,
Hoan Kiem District
No. of rooms: 123
Operating
Pham Hung, Cau Giay District
No. of rooms: 393
22-36 Nguyen Hue,
District 1
No. of rooms: 286
Soft opening
3C Ton Duc Thang,
District 1
No. of rooms: 345
Estimated: Q2/2015
76-78 Nguyen Thi
Minh Khai, District 3
No. of rooms: 168
Estimated: Q3/2015
Estimated: 2015
45
HOSPITALITY
North Asian visitors to Da Nang increase
600,000
TOP FIVE GUEST NATIONALITY
450,000
No
Nationality
2014
Compared
to 2013
300,000
150,000
0
Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015
Domestic arrivals
International arrivals

1
Chinese
152,359
+44%
2
Korean
107,008
+93%
3
Japan
52,671
+28%
4
U.S
21,440
+29%
5
Australian
17.471
+39%
Da Nang Q1 2015
 Y-o-y change:
↑ 17% in total arrivals
↑ 19% in International sector
↑ 15% in domestic sector

 Chinese visitors continued leading
the top 5 guest nationality.
 Significant improvement in Korean tourists,
up 93% y-o-y.
Q2 is expected a dramatically increase in
domestic arrivals thanks to DIFC event and
summer holidays
46
HOSPITALITY
Da Nang: More flights, more new routes
546 flights
100
472 flights
485 flights
80
60
40
20
1-25/3/2014
Q4 2014
1/10/2014
– 31/12/2014
Shangdong Air
Macau Air
Dragon Air
Vietnam Airline
Silk Air
Korean Air
China Southern
China Eastern
Asiana Air
Shangdong Air
Macau Air
Dragon Air
Vietnam Airline
Silk Air
Korean Air
China Southern
China Eastern
Asiana Air
Shangdong Air
Macau Air
Dragon Air
Vietnam Airline
Silk Air
Korean Air
China Southern
China Eastern
Asiana Air
0
1- 25/3/2015
 20 out of 29 international routes are to/from China.
 8 more charter routes from China opened in Q1
 Incheon – Da Nang routes operated by Vietnam Airlines and Asiana Airlines increased to 6 and 4
flights per week, respectively.
 New routes to open:
 Hong Kong – Da Nang operated by Hong Kong Express
 Busan – Da Nang served by Busan Air
47
A MORE EQUAL & TRANSPARENT PLAYGROUND
For Housing
November 2014, Foreign Housing
Ownership
July 2014, Condominium
Measurement
Effective from July 1, 2015
Effective from July 08, 2014
 From the INTERIOR of the
enclosing walls
 INCLUDING:
• Private balcony(ies) (if any)
Sellable
• Internal partitions
Area
 EXCLUDING:
• Internal column(s) (if any);
• Utility area (if any) inside the
unit;
 A balcony / logia which shares a
Balcony solid wall with another condominium
will be measured from the internal
Area
boundary of the balcony / logia.
Foreign
Individual Buyer
Foreign
Organisation
Product
Volume
Purpose
Tenure
48
 YES for all foreigners who are granted a visa to the
country
 YES to all foreign investment funds, banks,
Vietnamese branches and representative offices of
overseas companies.
 Apartments + villas and townhouses
 Total number of dwelling units owned by foreigners
must not exceed 30% of the total units in one
condominium complex; or 250 villas / townhouses in
one particular administrative area
 The properties owned by foreigners can be subleased, traded, inherited and collateralized
 Unchanged: 50-year leasehold with renewal
possibility;
 Foreign individuals married to Vietnamese citizens
are entitled to freehold tenure.
SUB-LEASE AND MORE FOR FOREIGN INVESTORS
For Commercial Properties
Lease properties for sub-lease
Existing law
From July 2015
Foreign invested firms not
allowed to sub-lease
rented properties
Foreign invested firms can
sub-lease properties that they
are renting
Acquire completed buildings for own use
Existing law
From July 2015
only own a building if they
are the developer
acquire and own a completed
building for own use
49
INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES IN Q1 2015
50
INVESTORS – SOURCE AND TASTE
Buyers Origin in terms of Number of Deals
4% 4%
6%
2%
Domestic
Sellers Origin in terms of Number of Deals
5%
Korea
3%
3%
Hong Kong
8%
Singapore
8%
Korea
13%
Japan
14%
63%
Offshore
54%
Offshore
15%
Thailand
Malaysia
Investment Sectors in terms of Number of Deals
Investment Sectors in terms of Transaction Value
4%
Development Site
3%
1%
37%
32%
28%
Dev Site
Apartment
Retail
20%
Hotel
Office
Hotel
Apartment
17%
Retail
7%
Office
13%
Netherlands
Japan
Taiwan
10%
Domestic
30%
Industrial
Industrial
Data recorded during the period of 2011- 2015 YTD.
Source: RCA, retrieved Mar 2015.
51
Still four remaining questions
Track Record
52
INVESTMENT TRENDS
Foreign Shares in Listed Companies
Among 73 listed companies in real estate sector
61 companies have foreign
shares
16%
21%
15 companies have foreign
shares greater than 20%
Real estate holding
& development index
Foreign ownership
greater than 20%
Foreign ownership
less than 20%
100% local
63%
Source: CBRE Vietnam, August 2014.
Source: Stockbiz, April 1, 2015.
53
2015 OUTLOOK
SECTOR
SEGMENT
HANOI/ NORTH
RENT/PRICE
ABSORPTION
HCMC/ SOUTH
RENT/PRICE
ABSORPTION
New buildings
OFFICE
Mature buildings
CBD
RETAIL
Non-CBD
High-end
CONDOMINIUM Mid-end
Affordable
Inner-city hotels
HOTELS
Beach hotels/resorts
SERVICED APT. Grade A
Land
INDUSTRIAL
Factory/ warehouse
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q412015.
54
2015 OUTLOOK
SECTOR
OUTLOOK
CONDOMINIUM
 Sales expected to remain strong.
 The resurgence of top-tier projects and developers
 Should we be worried about an over-hyped market?
OFFICE
 Economic recovery and expansion of international companies will positively
raise office market in all key indicators. Rent is a deciding factor rather than
location.
 Green office buildings save energy, enhance workforce health and improve
quality of tenants.
RETAIL
 Rent of inline stores starts to increase
 Shopping centres with weak performance will need to re-merchandise while
adding more anchor tenants. Turnover share scheme become more
popular.
HOSPITALITY
 The market continues to be dominated by mid-scale segment.
 Second home market is expected to revive not only in established areas like
Da Nang, Nha Trang but also in emerging destinations like Phu Quoc and
Ha Long, especially when the recent policy allowing foreigners to purchase
houses in Vietnam takes effect in July 2015
55
56
THANK YOU!
Please fill in the Questionnaire.
Your opinions are appreciated.
© 2015 CBRE (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein,
including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no
guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication.
This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy
or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way,
transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorised publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited.
CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.
57

hanoi market insights – q1 2015

Transcription

Similar documents

Brochure

Flyer

923-925 Queen Street West

Property brochure

willows run - RealMassive

briggs ranch - Ethan Conrad Properties

35 Woodbine Downs Blvd, Etobicoke

CBRE CHICAGO MULTIFAMILY INSTITUTIONAL 2015 OUTLOOK

ROUTE 46 EAST