Logística e Infraestructura de Transporte: Clave de la Competitividad

Transcription

Logística e Infraestructura de
Transporte:
Clave de la Competitividad
Presented to:
XV Congreso Anual
Latinoamericano de Puertos
28 de junio, 2006
Hilton Colón Hotel
Guayaquil, Ecuador
Presented by:
Robert West
Managing Director
Global Trade & Transportation
Global Insight
781-301-9078
robert.west@globalinsight.com
CIP/OAS
Agenda
• Global issues and trends affecting the
world and U.S. economic outlooks
• Implications for sea trade in the U.S. and
Latin America
• Are we ready – can we compete?
• Conclusions
Copyright © 2006 Global Insight, Inc
CIP/OAS
2
Key Global Issues and Trends
•
Will higher oil prices derail the recovery?
NO - Not at $70-75
•
Will the dollar crash?
NO, but . . .
•
China: Hard or soft landing?
SOFT
•
New and important players?
YES, A FEW . . .
CIP/OAS
3
Has world economic growth peaked? - - - yes, but…
The world economy is in recession when real GDP growth is below 2%.
(Percent change, real GDP)
5
4
3
2
1
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
19
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
0
CIP/OAS
4
Container trade normally grows faster than the
world economy. This year should be very healthy.
2006
2006
GDP
GDP3.7%
3.7%
TEUs
TEUs8.2%
8.2%
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
World
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
TEUs
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5
Trade growth is influenced by factors beyond the
underlying demand for consumption goods.
•
•
•
•
•
•
Global logistics sourcing by industry
Emergence of global trading blocks
Growth of regional trade facilitation
Harmonization of trade and regulatory policies
Trade security standards and information flows
Increasing freight traffic and congestion along trade
corridors and at ports and border crossings
While all regions have increased trade,
growth is uneven
CIP/OAS
6
Trade is linked to real GDP growth - uneven across the
world – and emerging markets grow fastest.
8
6
4
2
0
NAFTA
Other
Americas
Western
Europe
2004
Emerging
Europe
2005
2006
Japan
Other Asia Mideast &
Africa
2007
CIP/OAS
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Europe in the long term – a great museum?
… and the visitors will come from China!
CIP/OAS
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Growth is not uniform: Market shifts are coming
and will affect U.S. trade and transportation
(Country GDP Rank in Billions of Real (2003) U.S. Dollars)
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
China
Japan
Japan
China
China
China
U.S.
Germany
Germany
Japan
Japan
India
India
U.K.
U.K.
Germany
India
Japan
Japan
France
China
U.K.
Russia
Russia
Brazil
Italy
France
India
U.K.
Brazil
Russia
China
Italy
France
Germany
U.K.
U.K.
Brazil
India
Russia
France
Germany
Germany
India
Russia
Italy
Brazil
France
France
Russia
Brazil
Brazil
Italy
Italy
Italy
Source: Global Insight World Service
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Asia is 2/3 of global container trade.
TRANS-ATLANTIC
5.4 million TEU
ASIA-EUROPE
12.1 million TEU
TRANS-PACIFIC
19.3 million TEU
5.7% Growth
12.2% Growth
10.8 % Growth
INTRA-ASIA
26.2 million TEU
(including Australia,
Indian Subcontinent and
Middle East)
10.0% Growth
World Container Trade Flow 2005
E-W = 43% Intra Asia = 31%
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The U.S. expansion is entering a new phase –
a significant slowdown is here.
•
The U.S. economy had strong momentum entering 2006.
•
•
5.3% in the first quarter
Just 2.7% in the second!
•
Consumer spending growth will slow in response to higher
interest rates, high energy prices, and a weak housing market.
•
Home sales and construction are declining as affordability
deteriorates; hurricane rebuilding will cushion the fall.
•
Business investment is now leading the expansion, supported
by record profits and global market growth, especially Asia.
•
•
Non-residential construction is poised to grow, at last.
Further dollar depreciation is expected, so exports will
improve.
A Fast Start and A Slow Finish in 2006
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The U.S. economic expansion is slowing quickly.
8
(Annual percent change, 2000 dollars)
(Unemployment rate - %)
7
Real GDP
6
6
2006: 3.4%
2007: 2.6%
4
5
2
4
0
3
-2
2
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Real GDP Growth
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Unemployment Rate
CIP/OAS
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A Record U.S. Current Account Deficit – over $800 billion
as far as the eye can see.
(Billions of dollars)
200
2
0
0
-200
-2
-400
-3
-600
-5
-800
-6
-1,000
-8
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Current Account Deficit
Deficit as % of GDP
CIP/OAS
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The U.S. dollar will depreciate further – steady declines
through 2008, due to huge current account deficits.
(2000=1.00)
1.3
1.2
1.1
This could be 10-30%
drop in the dollar.
1.0
0.9
0.8
Industrial Countries
09
08
20
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
19
98
0.7
Developing Countries
CIP/OAS
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The U.S. was the engine of growth, but in 2006 this will
shift to Asia. Asia is supporting world growth.
•
Inflation remains under 4% in most Asian economies
— exceptions include Indonesia, India, and the
Philippines.
•
High saving rates mean these economies will
continue to be capital exporters - investors in ports
and transportation infrastructure (even Canals?).
•
•
China will have a soft landing.
Exchange rates across Asia will rise as part of a
global trade adjustment.
CIP/OAS
15
U.S. TEU imports will still grow by 8% in 2006, and by
6.2% in 2007. Chinese imports will grow fastest.
US TEU Imports
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
China was 1/3 of US imports
in 2000 and will be ½ by 2010.
China
China
8,000,000
6,000,000
Far East
OtherOther
Far East
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
2000
2001
European Union
2002
2003
2004
Latin Amer (Not Mexico)
2005
China + HK
2006
2007
Other Far East
2008
2009
2010
Middle East
+ ISC
CIP/OAS
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India could align with China and create a powerhouse
from toys to high tech.
India and China Real GDP Growth Rates
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
India Real GDP
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
China Real GDP
$800 billion GDP
8%/year total TEU growth to 2010
6.8% GDP growth this year (2006)
1.1 billion population is growing 1.5%
annually
CIP/OAS
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China’s momentum is hard to slow down, but the
government is trying - - - soft landing most likely.
Real Per Capita GDP (2004$)
Real GDP as $ of US Level, 2004$
Real GDP growth in previous 20 years
Population (millions)
Trade's share of GDP
Number of Supermarkets
Current Account Surplus ($ billions)
Agriculture's share of GDP
Urbanization
1980
$171
3%
5.3%
981
15%
0
1
30%
20%
2004
$964
14%
8.6%
1,300
85%
70,000
266
15%
33%
CIP/OAS
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As China expands its markets, the U.S. becomes less
important.
US Share of China Exports
40.0%
40,000,000
39.0%
35,000,000
38.0%
30,000,000
37.0%
TEUs
35.0%
20,000,000
34.0%
15,000,000
US Share
36.0%
25,000,000
33.0%
32.0%
10,000,000
31.0%
5,000,000
30.0%
29.0%
0
2000
2001
World Total
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
United States
Source: Global Insight World Trade Model
2007
2008
2009
2010
United States Share of Ch Exp
CIP/OAS
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Market penetration in some sectors is reaching
saturation …
100%
90%
Footwear
80%
Electrical Appliances
70%
60%
Textiles
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1995
1996
1997
1998
Footware
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Electrical Appliances and Houseware
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Textiles
CIP/OAS
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But look at China’s penetration of new market
segments.
80%
Office and Computing
Equipment
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
Semi-conductors,
Electronic parts, etc.
20%
10%
0%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Semi-conductors, Electronic Tubes,etc
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Office and Computing Machinery
CIP/OAS
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China Economic Summary
•
There appears to be little risk at the macroeconomic level. Even with a “soft landing’ we will
see growth in excess of 8% GDP through 2010.
•
•
The exchange rate will revalue smoothly.
•
So long as Foreign Direct Investment continues, we
will see the continuation of an export driven
economy.
The financial markets, although not exactly stable,
are also not seriously in danger of toppling.
CIP/OAS
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Agenda
Latin America
• Conclusions
CIP/OAS
23
China’s container exports continue to grow at
double-digit rates – NAFTA’s share has hit 45%.
40,000,000
35,000,000
TEU exports climb by
14.3% in 2006.
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
1995 1996 1997
1998 1999
2000 2001 2002
2003 2004 2005
NAFTA
2006 2007
2008 2009 2010
World Total
CIP/OAS
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Mexico joins China’s million-TEU club
China/HK - Largest Export Markets
United States
Japan
Mexico
South Korea
Germany
United Kingdom
2010
2006-10
12,084,640
9.8%
3,778,186
9.1%
2,798,144
15.5%
1,862,507
11.4%
1,554,331
10.1%
1,447,126
11.2%
Mexico already imports 1.5 million full TEUs from
China (2006).
Mexico is the fastest-growing large market for
China/HK. Is Mexico prepared for this?
CIP/OAS
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Some Mexican alternatives are being discussed – to
serve the US market. Even more attention if the Panama
Canal is not expanded.
•
Punta Colonet
•
•
•
Container volumes will continue to
grow.
USWC port and rail congestion could
return – 5 years?
All-water service costs may go up.
There are wrinkles to iron out.
Manzanillo
Lazaro Cardenas
Alfa-Omega Line
CIP/OAS
26
Latin America’s sea trade is expected to grow in line with
general world sea trade growth. Imports will outpace
exports.
20,000,000
18,000,000
16,000,000
2006
4,429,737
6,811,160
Imports
Exports
Cr% 06
6.1%
6.3%
2005-10
4.9%
3.9%
2005-20
4.4%
3.3%
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Latin America Imports
2014
2016
2018
2020
Latin America Exports
CIP/OAS
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When Mexico is added, the growth is enormous in the
future. Imports from the Far East – shown below.
TEUs to Latin America - West Coast
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
1998
2000
2002
West Coast South America
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Central America & Caribbean
2014
2016
2018
2020
Mexico
CIP/OAS
28
Agenda
Latin America
• Conclusions
CIP/OAS
29
Why do countries fail? 3 main reasons
1.
DICTATORS
•
2.
SHUTTING THE DOORS TO REST OF THE WORLD
•
•
•
•
•
3.
They cannot manage everything, especially people’s desire to eat
and be free
Domestic costs grow out of proportion
Cannot take advantage of better products, lower prices, from
abroad
Customers are not satisfied – product selection is limited
Lack of foreign competition causes industries to stagnate
Investments from outside disappear
DISEASE
Source: U.S. Government, Central Intelligence Agency
CIP/OAS
30
Keys to competitiveness
•
Open all the doors to trade –
•
The more open, the better
•
The ports and inland infrastructure must be made
more productive and expanded in some cases.
•
Asian ports have increased productivity much
faster than European or U.S. ports.
TEUs/acre/year
Asian Ports
European Ports
U.S. Ports
1999
9,272
4,284
2,894
2004
16,595
6,396
4,018
CAGR
12.3%
8.3%
6.8%
Source: John Vickerman, TransSystems, CI Database,
Seaports of the Americas
CIP/OAS
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Container vessel wait time at LA/LB – a short interruption
of service, affecting productivity, can cause . . .
250
5
4.5
200
4
150
3
2.5
100
2
Avg Days at Anchor
No. of Vessels
3.5
1.5
50
1
0.5
No of Container Ships at LA/LB that had to anchor awaiting a berth
Source: John Vickerman, TranSystems, derived from data from Marine
Exchange of Southern California
Ap
r05
M
ay
-0
5
ar
-0
5
M
Fe
b05
Ja
n05
De
c04
-0
4
No
v
O
ct
-0
4
Se
p04
-0
4
Au
g
-0
4
Ju
l
-0
4
Ju
n
Ap
r04
M
ay
-0
4
M
ar
-0
4
0
Fe
b04
Ja
n04
0
Average No. of Days at anchor
CIP/OAS
32
… a fast shift by carriers to alternate routes. Here, carriers
shifted to the US East Coast through the Panama Canal.
And
a $13
billion
US
Coastal
Shares,
from China, Japan, Taiwan, and S. Korea
impact on the U.S.
economy, in 10 days
52.0%
51.0%
50.0%
49.0%
48.0%
47.0%
62% of the growth in US imports
from North Asia shifted to the
USEC in 2002 – fairly elastic.
46.0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
USEC
2007
2008
2009
2010
USWC
CIP/OAS
33
Ports are potential bottlenecks in the supply chain.
Proveedor
Proveedor
Fabricante
Fabricante
Puerto
Puerto
Puerto
Puerto
Almacén
Almacén
Distr.
Distr.
Final
Final
Información
CIP/OAS
34
There is a severe need to expand port capacity and
throughput capability.
•
By 2010, there will be a shortfall of 4.1 million
TEUs just in the U.S.*
• LA/LB is headed for a capacity crunch
•
If port productivity remains unchanged, we
will need 405 Ha of new container terminals.*
•
Even if the Panama Canal is expanded, we
will hit the capacity crunch before 2014.
* A. Scioscia, APM Terminals
CIP/OAS
35
If more capacity is not provided in the ports in all of the
Americas,
• Cost of containerized goods will rise.
• “Just in time” will become a term used in
textbooks only.
• Shippers and carriers will look for new
routes.
• There will be winners and losers in the
port sector.
CIP/OAS
36
What can we do?
•
Ports should expand the terminals and yards.
•
This is difficult in many in-city ports
• Productivity should be improved, to reach the
•
levels already achieved in Asia.
New technology should be introduced in the
yards.
•
•
•
At the berth
In the storage yard
At the gate – better information and weighing technology
• Labor and management should work together
to allow new technology to be used in the
ports.
CIP/OAS
37
All of the stakeholders should come together . . .
Inland Rivers Ports & Terminals Assoc.
Association of American Railroads
American Trucking Assocs..
Waterfront Coalition
Freight Stakeholders Coalition
US Chamber of Commerce
World Shipping Council
National Assoc. of Manufacturers
International Mass Retailers Assoc.
Intermodal Association of North America (IANA)
Coalition for America’s Gateways and Trade Corridors.
CIP/OAS
38
Agenda
Latin America
• Are we ready – and can we compete?
• Conclusions
CIP/OAS
39
Bottom Line
•
World economic growth will remain robust in 2006, but will
slow by year end. Enjoy it now.
•
Emerging markets of Asia and Europe will experience the
strongest growth; the Eurozone and Japan will lag behind.
•
Enormous growth in container traffic within the next 5 years
will push many ports to their full capacity limits.
•
The key to competitiveness is to expand port and inland
infrastructure and make it more efficient.
•
If the Panama Canal is not expanded, the entry points may
expand to Canada and Mexico.
•
Latin America’s competitiveness starts, and ends, with
efficient infrastructure to move the containers that are
coming . . .and, they are coming!!!!!
CIP/OAS
40
Logística e Infraestructura de
Transporte:
Clave de la Competitividad
Presented to:
XV Congreso Anual
Latinoamericano de Puertos
28 de junio, 2006
Hilton Colón Hotel
Guayaquil, Ecuador
Presented by:
Robert West
Managing Director
Global Trade & Transportation
Global Insight
781-301-9078
robert.west@globalinsight.com
CIP/OAS
CIP/OAS
41

Logística e Infraestructura de Transporte: Clave de la Competitividad

Transcription

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