3-Year Capital Plan - St. Albert Public Schools
Transcription
3-Year Capital Plan - St. Albert Public Schools
3-Year Capital Plan 2017-2018 to 2019-2020 (An Update to the 2016-2017 to 2018-2019 Plan) March, 2016 1 Table of Contents Executive Summary ___________________________________________________________ 3 Map of St. Albert ____________________________________________________________ 10 Detailed Costing _____________________________________________________________ 12 3-Year Capital Priorities _______________________________________________________ 14 Summary of Electronic Submission of the 3-Year Capital Plan_________________________ 24 10-Year Facility Outlook ______________________________________________________ 26 New Modulars and Old Portables _______________________________________________ 34 Appendices _________________________________________________________________ 39 Appendix 1 Municipal Planning ______________________________________________________ 40 Appendix 2 Utilization & Enrolment __________________________________________________ 42 Appendix 3 Schools Projected Enrolment (Internal Projections) ____________________________ 49 Appendix 4 Provincial Forecasting Model & School Needs Assessment Review ________________ 69 2 Executive Summary 3 Executive Summary Each year the Province requires school jurisdictions to complete a 3-Year Capital Plan. The driving mechanism for Alberta Education planning purposes is the electronic submission of the 3Year Capital Plan within the provincial software system called Building and Land Information Management System (BLIMS). The electronic submission contains detailed information about each facility as well as an overall summary report. A copy of the summary report is contained on page 23 of this document. In addition, each year St. Albert Public Schools also produces the district’s 3-Year Capital Plan in paper format. St. Albert Public Schools currently houses 7,880 (7,569.50 FTE) students in 14 schools, one of which is an Outreach School. The district also partners with Greater St. Albert Catholic Schools in a Storefront School, currently operated by the catholic school jurisdiction. As required by Alberta Education, the top priorities identified by the district are delineated between new or replacement school projects and preservation/major modernization projects and are listed as follows: New School/Replacement School Projects: 1. A new high school or the enlargement of the two existing high schools (Paul Kane and Bellerose Composite) to be completed within 2 years* A value added study is to be completed. 2. Ecole Paul Kane High School 3. Bellerose Composite High School 4. Bellerose Composite High School 5. A new K-9, 900 student school in the Northwest within five years. (Presumably Riverside School Site) 6. Robert Rundle Elementary School 7. Robert Rundle Elementary School 8. Gr 7-12 Partnership School with a Sports Focus in the Northwest Quadrant** – Elysian Fields 9. Ecole Leo Nickerson Elementary School 10. Ecole Muriel Martin Elementary School Modular Classroom Projects** 1. New modular classrooms to deal with growth, locations to be determined on an annual basis Additional New Space 2017-2018 Modernization Partial Modernization (Reroof and Maintenance of a Natural Light Conduit) Partial Modernization, CTS and Art Focus Addition Additional New Space 2018-2019 2017-2018 Gym Modernization and Addition Modernization Additional New Space 2018-2019 2018-2019 2021-2022 Modernization Modernization (Additional Space) Through Replacement of Existing Portables and Modulars 2018-2019 2019-2020 Emergent Additional Space – dependent on the opening dates of the K-6, 600 student and K-9, 900 student schools. 2017-2018 2017-2018 2020-2021 4 2. New modular classrooms to replace old portables 4-5 units/year, 37 of the district’s 60 portables and 40 modulars are over 30 years of age! 2017-2018 *The request for the new K-900 student school is just outside the 3-year capital plan but is shared in the interests of transparency. **The request for the Sports Focus School is outside the 3-year period but have been included on the listing. The residential and commercial development initiative is developer lead and both the probability of certainty and the timeline are uncertain. Notwithstanding servicing concerns, the developer is still hopeful for progress within 3-5 years. **As of February 2016, two emergent growth/replacement modular classrooms have been granted for the 2016-2017 school year. Twelve emergent growth modular classrooms and four replacement (evergreening) modular classrooms for a total of sixteen units were requested for 2016-2017. In April 2000, Alberta Infrastructure concluded its evaluation of provincial school buildings; the results of which determine the allocation of modernization and replacement funding to school jurisdictions. A provincial re-audit program started in 2004-2005 with a target to conduct 300 re-audits per year on a rolling basis and have each school re-audited every five years. All of the school buildings within the district have been re-audited. In assessing the needs of the district over the next ten years, detailed analyses of enrolments and utilizations, jurisdictional and municipal growth, and individual school programming and circumstances were completed. A - Immediate Need for New Schools (A1) High School Space – Critical Need The district’s 3-Year Capital Plan identifies the urgent need for high school space. Alberta Education and Alberta Infrastructure have begun to work with the district on its looming high school space crisis. The district has been nominated as a priority for a value added high school study. The district is very excited about this work. After some delays, recognizing there was a provincial government change and that necessitates some retooling, that work which was thought to occur in the autumn of 2015, then in late February 2016 is now hopefully slated to begin immediately. The government endorsed value added study will assist with establishing the most prudent course of action on whether a third high school should be built or should substantial additions (both classrooms, CTS, gym space and core) be added to each of our two large high schools. Notwithstanding the district continues to request that the City of St. Albert identify a site suitable for construction of a high school. No site large enough currently exists. This has been an item the district has raised for over the last ten years. New High School Space – A Value Added Study has been Awarded and Needs to Proceed St. Albert Public Schools recognizes the significant pressure on our two large high school facilities. The two existing high schools are highly utilized with a population boom already enrolled in elementary and junior high in the district. Given St. Albert Public Schools’ ballooning school enrolments, additional high school space is required. The value added high school study is eagerly 5 anticipated. It is imperative that the work with government and the City of St. Albert to plot the most reasonable course of action proceeds. A third high school or substantial additions to both Bellerose Composite High School and Paul Kane High School is urgently needed. This would include traditional classrooms, CTS rooms, gyms and other core areas. As an aside, our school district has also had preliminary discussions with the City of St. Albert and St. Albert Catholic Schools regarding the creation of a new high school site in St. Albert with potential school board partnerships. To date our immediate space needs have not aligned with our sister jurisdiction. Since the district has indicated to the City for over 10 years that a new high school site should be established, the district is optimistic that a new high school site will be identified in the near future. (A2) A New 900 Student School – Riverside Will Have to be a Solution A new 900 student school will be required within five years to deal with current and continued projected population growth. Riverside is the only possibility as this new neighborhood is expected to house 10,000-12,000 people and only contains one school site. The site should be serviced within 5 years. In any event, should the growth not materialize quite as quickly as expected due to the current economic downturn, the footprint of many schools have been expanded due to necessity with the addition of modulars to beyond what the core can support. Shifting population to a new school and reducing and right sizing these crowded schools would be prudent. (A3) Potential Partnership St. Albert Sports City-Elysian Fields– No Advancement as of Yet Our district has forged a partnership with a developer, St. Albert Sports City, who is planning to create an exciting, world-class multi-faceted sports complex in northwest St. Albert. Notwithstanding construction is underway on the Lois E. Hole Elementary School and the Joseph M. Demko School is moving to the tendering phase, the large number of students already in our school system will be pushing through into junior high by the time these schools open. More junior high space is urgently needed. The developer’s model based upon a successful school in Florida would be a grades 7-12 school, with a sports focus, serving both local and approximately 40-50% international students. The developer already has an established multi-discipline sports training business in St. Albert with an impressive clientele. In prior years, meetings were also held with delegates from the districts China partnership and the St. Albert Sports City Partnership. Given the developers four plus year timeline, this school would fit well in the district’s plans regardless of how other new high school space is added. However, to date it remains an empty field. Lack of sewer line servicing within St. Albert is an issue. To date there has been no residential or commercial development but in recent meetings with the developer he remains hopeful progress will begin. B - Immediate Need and Justification for New Schools - Urgent Requests Short to Medium Term The impact of the recent development in the northeast, specifically Erin Ridge North, Jensen Lakes, North Ridge in the West, and in Riverside (a new neighborhood in northwest St. Albert), has been considered in the formulation of the district’s 3-Year Capital Plan. The jurisdiction’s K-9 population has quickly ballooned approximately 25% in the last five years. The district’s utilization rate at February 2016 is approximately 90%. The district’s January 2016 kindergarten fair was very successful. This follows the highest ECS cohorts ever at September in the previous two years. 6 We acknowledge that the recently announced Lois E. Hole Elementary School, being built in the new community of Erin Ridge North in northeast St. Albert, will help. However, it does NOT address all of the district’s immediate growth needs or those over the next three to five years. The completion of the north leg of the Anthony Henday ring road has solidified the attractiveness and the continued viability of the south half of St. Albert. Young families with working parents commuting to Edmonton have sought housing in this end of the city due to its accessibility and it has rejuvenated old neighborhoods. The district has little to no student space city-wide. The completion of the western bypass route (i.e. Ray Gibbon Drive) has triggered rapid growth in the northwest section of St. Albert. In addition, the 2007 annexation of approximately 1,300 hectares of land to the north and west of the city has increased the land base of St. Albert by approximately one-third. There is considerable pressure to develop this land. It is expected that substantial development in the northwest will significantly accelerate student enrolment growth in the district. St. Albert Public Schools will also require more space in the northwest section of St. Albert as this occurs. The Riverside development, in the west, will add 10,000 people including over 1900 students in this new neighborhood. Jensen Lakes, in the north, which will be served by the new 900 student Joseph M. Demko ECS-Grade 9 school will be surrounded by a new 5000-person neighborhood. In the past, the district was flexible and willing to accept a modernized Sturgeon Heights School, located in North Ridge and owned by the Sturgeon School Division. However, with a dramatic increase in population that timeline no longer works. C - Preservation/Major Modernization Projects Paul Kane High School- A Full Modernization is Required The district’s top modernization priority remains Paul Kane High School. With one of the highest FCI scores this large high school is a highly utilized school originally built in 1971. Some CTS areas have been updated with IMR projects in recent years, however the entire school requires a full modernization and would benefit physically and educationally. Original infrastructure permeates the building. Ideally an addition occurs immediately followed by a modernization of the old part of the building. It is currently highly utilized and will serve the community for decades to come. Bellerose Composite High School – A Roof and Program Enhancements Bellerose Composite High School serves the growing north end of St. Albert as well as the students looking for a more traditional CTS education. A recent development in the winter and spring of 2010 was the emergence of significant roofing issues. The issues are not solely contained to, but are primarily concentrated with, the large and numerous skylights. Natural light has been proven to enhance the educational experience and mental and scholastic wellbeing of students. Given Bellerose Composite High School is a highly populated, highly utilized facility, the maintenance of natural light is essential. The jurisdiction has been working with Alberta Education and Alberta Infrastructure on various solutions. The solutions are all in excess of one million dollars. Clerestory windows or technologically advanced replacement skylights are options that the district is considering. An approximate $3 million roof repair is required to prevent further deterioration and additional costs. Regular updates including professional reports and cost updates were submitted to Alberta Education under separate cover. Applications to the provincial Capital Emergent Fund in 2010 and 2011 were unsuccessful. To minimize damage to the building, a partial re-roof was completed in the summer of 2014 using IMR funding. There are 6 sections of 7 roof on the original school building that require re-roof work. One section was completed in 2014 and starting in 2016 more sections will be completed depending on IMR budget allocations, until all are complete. The high school would also benefit from an enhanced automotive area. A welding area could also be created. In addition, retooling existing space through a modernization would create more functional cosmetology, home economics and other programming areas. (Some enhancements were made through IMR funding; in 2012 a second foods lab was created and in 2013 a modernization of the art room was completed). Robert Rundle Elementary School – An Appropriate Gymnasium Robert Rundle School is an old school that has a small, inadequate gymnasium in comparison to other elementary schools. Although substantial efforts have been made to make the gymnasium barrier-free, it is still not easily handicap accessible. This situation should be corrected, either separately or as part of a school modernization. As the district struggles with its junior high space shortage it has begun to seriously evaluate the merits of utilizing Robert Rundle to house some of the junior high students due to its close proximity to Sir George Simpson Jr. High School. An appropriate gym and a modernization of Robert Rundle would position this joint campus with Sir George Simpson for the future. D - Current Inventory The thirteen school buildings within the district vary in age from 25 to 58 years. A profile of each school has been provided in the 10-Year Facility Outlook section of this document. Although not requested, to maintain capital planning consistency, we have also included our modular requests within this report. The district continues to utilize Alberta Education’s required modular application process E - Modular Classroom Projects As evidenced on pages 33 – 37, the majority of St. Albert Public Schools’ fleet of portables is very old. Thirty-eight of the district’s sixty portables are over 30 years old. On an ongoing basis the district respectfully asks that the Province allocate five replacement modular classrooms per year to St. Albert Public Schools to begin to address this deteriorating situation. The requested replacement modular classrooms are a band-aid solution that could be used currently to alleviate enrolment pressures, then moved to other schools as required to replace a portion of the aged portables once the new schools open. Additionally, purely replacement modular classrooms will also be required to revitalize the highly utilized aged fleet. F - Ongoing Projects It was with great excitement that in March 2015 construction began on the Lois E. Hole Elementary School. It will be the first new school in the district in almost 25 years. The Lois E. Hole Elementary School is a government led construction project. The district attends regular meetings to participate in the design and construction process. As at March 2016 the project continues to move through the construction process. Expected completion is January 2017 with occupancy in September 2017. This school will house English and French Immersion programs. Lois E. Hole Elementary school is the only school that serves the northeast quadrant. The Lois E. Hole school will also be required to serve the new Erin Ridge North community, estimated to be 3,800 people and 770 students. The large number of students already in our school system from that quadrant will be into junior high by the time that school opens. More junior high space is urgently needed. 8 On October 8, 2014 the district was awarded a much needed K-9, 900 student school. The Joseph M. Demko School is critically needed student space. This project needs to proceed to alleviate enrolment growth pressures. As of March 2016 the school has essentially been designed. The project is moving to the tendering phase. It will fit on a 9.6 (+/-) acre Jensen Lake school site. It is a government led construction process with the jurisdiction actively involved and participating. It will serve a new neighborhood, estimated to be 5,000 people and 1,000 students. A full modernization and CTS addition of W. D. Cuts Junior High School was announced and is scheduled to be completed by September 2016. Tenders closed on March 5, 2015 and the project is working through the modernization construction process. Old modulars have been moved and are housing the students detached from the school. The contractor has completed the new CTS addition. The new modulars have been placed and the main core of the school is currently being worked on (modernized). It has been a difficult project with many unforeseen site and hazardous material removal costs. G - Significant Growth Facts Substantiating the Need for Proper Yet Flexible Planning Approximately 25% increase in K-9 population in the system in five years! 2014-2015 enrolment full body count growth has increased 5.9%! And again by 3.2% at September 2015 with enrolment caps in place. (Full time equivalent (FTE) growth counting ECS @ 0.5 FTE is 3.7%!) ECS (Early Childhood Services) was at a record high enrolment at September 30, 2013 and grew another 20% at September 30, 2014! With enrolment caps in place September 30, 2015 enrolment was only 7.8% less than 2014. February 2016 ECS enrolments are 32.5% higher than this time last year. The district has 60 portables and 40 steel framed modular for a total of 100 relocatable classrooms. H - For 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 Enrolment Curtailment For 2015-2016 significant curtailment in growth occurred as enrolments are being severely capped at E.S. Gish school and monitored closely at Leo Nickerson and Muriel Martin elementary schools due to a profound lack of school and jurisdictional space. This will continue for 2016-2017. 9 Map of St. Albert 10 11 Detailed Costing 12 Detailed Costing The costs contained in the electronic submission of the 3-Year Capital Plan to the Alberta government reflect the currently allowed costs at rates prescribed by the Province. The district remains concerned that the inflationary cost pressures in the construction industry have resulted in cost rates that do not allow for an adequately constructed and equipped school. However, since those are the mandated cost rates prescribed by the Province, they are the ones that were used in the 3-Year Capital Plan submission. Since 2004 Alberta Infrastructure has been conducting facility evaluations on a five-year cycle, providing information on the condition of all school facilities across the province. Alberta Infrastructure uses a Facility Condition Index (FCI) methodology for the evaluations, which expresses the cost of possible maintenance and renewal over the next 5-year period as a percentage of the building replacement cost. Three measures (“good”, “fair” and “poor”) are used. Essentially the higher the FCI value the more urgent the project. These evaluations provide information on the condition of school facilities and are used as the basis for the prioritization and implementation of school modernization projects completed across the province. The FCI indexes for our schools are provided in the 10-year Facility Outlook section of this document. The interpretation of facility condition index (FCI) values for building infrastructure is as follows1: In April 2006 responsibility and funding for capital projects transferred back to Alberta Education from Alberta Infrastructure. However, Alberta Infrastructure continues to provide technical advice on existing facilities and new construction projects and manages the overall construction process. 1 Alberta Infrastructure 2007-08 Annual Report 13 3-Year Capital Priorities 2017-2018 to 2019-2020 14 3-Year Capital Priorities 2017-2018 to 2019-2020 The district’s 3-Year Capital Plan identifies the immediate need for a new school and also five schools in need of full or partial modernization including some in need of additional space. The requests outlined in this plan are essential and most relate directly to enhancing educational programming. The completion of these projects is crucial to avoid the marginalization of our district’s students because of programs not being offered due to facility constraints. The district’s priorities have been segregated into new school/replacement school projects and preservation/major modernization projects are prioritized within each category as required by the Department. New School/Replacement School Projects: 1. A new high school or the enlargement of the two existing high schools (Paul Kane and Bellerose Composite) to be completed within 2 years* A value added study is to be completed. 2. Ecole Paul Kane High School 3. Bellerose Composite High School 4. Bellerose Composite High School 5. A new K-9, 900 student school in the Northwest within five years. (Presumably Riverside School Site) 6. Robert Rundle Elementary School 7. Robert Rundle Elementary School 8. Gr 7-12 Partnership School with a Sports Focus in the Northwest Quadrant** – Elysian Fields 9. Ecole Leo Nickerson Elementary School 10. Ecole Muriel Martin Elementary School Modular Classroom Projects** 1. New modular classrooms to deal with growth, locations to be determined on an annual basis 2. New modular classrooms to replace old portables Additional New Space 2017-2018 Modernization Partial Modernization (Reroof and Maintenance of a Natural Light Conduit) Partial Modernization, CTS and Art Focus Addition Additional New Space 2018-2019 2017-2018 Gym Modernization and Addition Modernization Additional New Space 2018-2019 2018-2019 2021-2022 Modernization Modernization (Additional Space) Through Replacement of Existing Portables and Modulars 2018-2019 2019-2020 Emergent Additional Space – dependent on the opening dates of the K-6, 600 student and K-9, 900 student schools. 4-5 units/year, 37 of the district’s 60 portables and 40 modulars are over 30 years of age! 2017-2018 2017-2018 2020-2021 2017-2018 15 *The request for the new K-900 student school is just outside the 3-year capital plan but is shared in the interests of transparency. **The request for the Sports Focus School is outside the 3-year period but have been included on the listing. The residential and commercial development initiative is developer lead and both the probability of certainty and the timeline are uncertain. Notwithstanding servicing concerns, the developer is still hopeful for progress within 3-5 years. **As of February 2016, two emergent growth/replacement modular classrooms have been granted for the 2016-2017 school year. Twelve emergent growth modular classrooms and four replacement (evergreening) modular classrooms for a total of sixteen units were requested for 2016-2017. NEW SCHOOL/REPLACEMENT SCHOOL PROJECTS The impact of the recent development in Erin Ridge North, Jensen Lakes, North Ridge, and in Riverside, a new neighborhood in northwest St. Albert, has been considered in the formulation of the district’s 3-Year Capital Plan. It substantiates our assessment of an immediate need for high school space and another K-9 new school in the northwest quadrant of the city. The jurisdiction’s K-9 population has rapidly ballooned approximately 25% in the last five years. The district’s utilization rate is approximately 90%. We acknowledge that the recently announced Lois E. Hole Elementary School, scheduled to be built in northeast St. Albert, will help. However, it and the Joseph M. Demko school opening in September 2018 do NOT address all of the district’s immediate growth needs or those over the next three to five years. In January 2007 the size of the City of St. Albert increased by approximately one-third when it annexed approximately 1,300 hectares of land to the north and west of the city. There is significant pressure to develop this area in the immediate future. Generally speaking, the district’s schools on the north side of St. Albert are heavily utilized: Muriel Martin Elementary – 97%, Ronald Harvey Elementary – 97%, William D. Cuts Junior High – 62%, and Bellerose Composite High School – 97%. (The utilization rates used are from a February 2016 report from Alberta Infrastructure). William D. Cuts Junior High School, which is currently undergoing a major modernization, has a lower utilization rate but it is not a large school. The addition of a few students could dramatically increase its utilization rate. A smaller junior high population will assist with moving students around the building during the construction period. William D. Cuts Junior High School is located in a growth area which will assist in filling the school quickly after the modernization is complete. Athletic programs introduced at Ronald Harvey Elementary School and William D. Cuts Junior High School in 2012/2013 are having a positive impact on enrolment and increasing utilization. Due to geographical factors such as the City of Edmonton on the south side of St. Albert and Big Lake on the west side of St. Albert, residential growth and school space pressures will undoubtedly continue on the north side. 16 The completion of the north leg of the Anthony Henday ring road has solidified the attractiveness and the continued viability of the south half of St. Albert. Young families with working parents commuting to Edmonton will seek housing in this end of the city due to its accessibility and that will rejuvenate old neighborhoods. The North Ridge subdivision situated in the northwest corner of St. Albert is currently under rapid development. Development has been significantly accelerated with the completion of the western bypass route. When it is fully developed, it is anticipated that approximately 1,100 school age children will live in this area. Based upon current demographics, it is expected that approximately 300 of these students will be of elementary age attending St. Albert Public Schools. Riverside, a development in the northwest quadrant adjacent but south of North Ridge, is also expected to fuel significant growth for the district. It will be a neighborhood of 10,000-12,000 people and contains only one school site. A K-9 900 student school is really the only logical solution given the land constraints. Ronald Harvey School is currently designated by the district as the elementary school for the North Ridge community. It’s a small school and its utilization is currently at 97%. Immediate Emergent Need New High School Space – A Value Added Study has been Awarded and Needs to Proceed St. Albert Public Schools recognizes the significant pressure on our two large high school facilities. More high school space is needed. Given St. Albert Public Schools’ current high school enrolments, additional high school space will be required. Currently a high school site of an appropriate size does not exist. However, given our own and the City of St. Albert’s projections for the City to dramatically increase in size, many more school sites will be required. Either a new high school needs to be built or significant capital additions and modernizations would need to be completed to our two large high schools within the next five years to accommodate additional growth. The departments of Education and Infrastructure have indicated a value added study would be appropriate. The district agrees and looks forward to government endorsed value added study occurring in the upcoming months. As an aside, our school district has also had preliminary discussions with the City of St. Albert and St. Albert Catholic Schools regarding the creation of a new high school site in St. Albert with potential school board partnerships. To date our immediate space needs have not aligned with our sister jurisdiction. Since the district has indicated to the City for over 10 years that a new high school site should be established, the district is optimistic that a new high school site will be identified in the near future. A New K-9 900 Student School – Riverside Will Have to be a Solution The district will require a K-9 900 student school within five years to deal with enrolment growth. In the past, the district was flexible and willing to accept a modernized Sturgeon Heights School, located in North Ridge and owned by the Sturgeon School Division. However, with a 25% increase in K-9 population in the system in the last five years, that time line no longer works. Riverside will have to be a solution. St. Albert Sports City Partnership – But No Advancement as of Yet Our district has a partnership with a developer, St. Albert Sports City, who is planning to create an exciting, world-class multi-faceted sports complex in northwest St. Albert. Notwithstanding 17 construction is underway on the Lois E. Hole Elementary School which will serve the northeast quadrant, the large number of students already in our school system will be pushing through into junior high by the time that school opens. The need for more junior high space is critical and immediate. The grades 7-12 school, with a sports focus, would serve both local and international students. Given the developer’s timeline of development starting in 3 years with sports amenities to be added, it would fit in with the district’s plans. PRESERVATION/MAJOR MODERNIZATION PROJECTS ECOLE PAUL KANE HIGH SCHOOL – 2018/2019 Originally constructed in 1971, Ecole Paul Kane High School is in need of a full modernization. The most recent facility evaluation audit completed on Paul Kane High School in October 2010 determined a FCI of 21.01%. The old school does not have an adequate gym for hosting tournaments. A gym comparable to other high schools would be required. CTS Area and Program Upgrades A report was completed in 2004-05 by Workun Garrick Architects regarding all of the CTS rooms and programs identified by the school as areas of concern. The installation of a new cosmetology lab was completed in January 2007 using Infrastructure Maintenance and Renewal (IMR) block funding. In October, 2007 cost estimates for specific projects were updated by Workun Garrick Architects and are provided below: Computer room $337,870 Art room $246,800 CTS labs $783,500 It is estimated that the approximate cost to upgrade the drama room would be approximately $150,000. Caught in a situation where the district could no longer wait for modernization funding, a multimedia CTS area modernization was approved under the Infrastructure Maintenance and Renewal (IMR) block funding program. Additional work in the wood fabrication area was addressed through a Skills Canada/Alberta Education grant. Construction was completed in the multi-media CTS area in 2008. The Art room was refurbished and the food labs were refurbished in 2010 and 2011. However, a major modernization is still required to this highly utilized aging plant. Observations and comments on projects at Ecole Paul Kane High School that are still outstanding based on facility reviews for the capital plan from Workun Garrick Architects dated January 2005 and March 2002, Alberta Infrastructure School Facility Evaluation dated April 7, 2000, and Wood O’Neill O’Neill Architects Ltd. dated March 1998 are below. Workun Garrick Architects dated January 2005: Drama A raised sound booth is required at north end of the drama room. Existing cabinets on north wall to be removed. Provide new storage to both sides and below new raised sound booth. 18 Provide wall brackets to stack stage flats vertically along west exterior wall. Existing small storage rooms to have existing interior walls removed. This area converted to costume change area. All materials not used on a regular basis are to be stored elsewhere. The report also highlighted art class deficiencies which have subsequently been addressed through the Infrastructure Maintenance and Renewal (IMR) block funding program. Workun Garrick Architects March 2002 - Recommendations: 1. Modernization of the existing Paul Kane Drama room (Theatre). 2. Construction of an exterior canopy to emphasize the school’s existing main entrance. Alberta Infrastructure School Facility Evaluation Project dated April 7, 2000 (Audit score 260): 1. Upgrading of stucco banding and potential retro-fit of cladding on exterior of gymnasiums. 2. Painting and interior upgrading. 3. Millwork upgrading and replacement. 4. Barrier free access upgrading at doors. 5. Provide air conditioning for computer labs. 6. Add visual strobes to the fire alarm system to meet present code. 7. Upgrade flooring. 8. Costs would need to be updated to current expenses to provide guidance for adequate provincial funding prior to approving and proceeding with the proposed project. Wood O’Neill O’Neill, 5 Year Capital Plan, March 1998 – Comments on Paul Kane High School: 1. This two-story building was originally constructed in 1971 with additions in 1975 and 1981. 2. Classroom sizes are variable, the regular ones ranging from 22.8 m2 under to 8.2 m2 over guidelines. Most classrooms and ancillaries are under current area guidelines. 3. The school is 33 years old and aside from a few small areas of renovation in 1975 and filling in a courtyard in 1981 to create what is now a student lounge area, the building is original. As such, the interior and exterior are due for a modernization. 4. There are remaining sections for re-roofing to be completed. 5. Plan for a modernization of the building systems within the next five years including upgrade to barrier free design. 6. Costs would need to be updated to current expenses to provide guidance for adequate provincial funding prior to approving and proceeding with the proposed project. BELLEROSE COMPOSITE HIGH SCHOOL – 2017/2018 The most recent facility evaluation audit completed on Bellerose Composite High School in 2011 determined a FCI of 16.07%. A recent development in the winter and spring of 2010 was the emergence of significant roofing issues. The issues are not solely contained to, but are primarily concentrated with, the large and numerous skylights. Natural light has been proven to enhance the educational experience and 19 mental and scholastic well-being of students. Given Bellerose Composite High School is a highly populated, highly utilized facility, the maintenance of natural light is essential. The jurisdiction has been working with Alberta Education and Alberta Infrastructure on various solutions. The solutions are all in excess of one million dollars. Clerestory windows or technologically advanced replacement skylights are options that the district is considering. An approximate $3 million roof repair is required to prevent further deterioration and additional costs. The district cannot fund this internally. IMR funding will assist in patching the roof as required; however provincial funding is required to address this situation. Applications to the Alberta government’s capital emergency fund were made in 2010, and again in 2011, but neither application was successful. To minimize damage to the building, a partial re-roof was completed in the summer of 2014 using IMR funding. However, a more permanent solution is required. To deal with enrolment pressures, a modular classroom was also approved and added in the fall of 2014 and 2015. Educational programs have changed since the opening of the school in 1988; modernization of existing facilities is required to accommodate current program needs. A theatre addition and addition to the CTS areas (Automotives, Welding, Cosmetology, and Foods) are necessary to meet instructional requirements. IMR funds were used to refurbish the Foods lab in 2012 and to renovate the Art room in 2013. Conclusions drawn from a design report to address facility needs completed by Workun Garrick Architects in January, 2001: 1. The Music and Fine Arts Program at Bellerose Composite High School has advanced steadily with the school’s increased enrolment. The existing music room is now spatially inadequate to properly provide the level of instrumental and choral instruction offered at the school. In addition to this, the school’s Performing Arts program has outgrown the original 1988 Drama area. The existing drama “theatre” is incapable of accommodating large scale productions and requires a larger stage, fly tower and additional dressing room and prop storage facilities. This report recommends that a new 250 to 300 seat theatre for Drama and Music program instruction and performance be constructed at the southeast corner of the existing facility. The theatre could serve as a district facility and serve a variety of district functions. Since the time of the 2001 study, school enrolment has grown. To accommodate the growth in the Fine Arts program and to allow for the space to be used for multipurpose, such as professional development activities and student meetings, the plan should be expanded to a 400 to 450 seat theatre. 2. The existing Mechanics program has also advanced steadily with the school’s increased enrolment. The Mechanics area lacks the necessary space to operate a two station program with sufficient space to store vehicles, parts and tools. This report recommends that a 216 m2 eight bay garage addition be placed at the existing northeast school corner to supplement the existing Mechanics lab areas. In addition to this, a standalone four bay 97 m2 vehicle compound is proposed to store school facility vehicles and equipment. The compound would be self-contained, reduce 20 equipment vandalism and theft, and provide welcomed visual relief of unsightly school equipment for neighbors and community members. 3. The existing Home Economics classroom and adjacent Art classroom are both too small to accommodate their respective programs. To address this issue, it is recommended to expand the existing Home Economics classroom by relocating the Art lab to the existing Music room. 4. The existing Beauty Culture classroom is too small to accommodate the program’s current enrolment. To address this issue, the existing Life Skills suite located just south of the existing Beauty Culture room has been modernized to accommodate this program and provide a common instructional space for Beauty Culture Theory. 5. Since staff requirements have increased along with student enrolment, the existing staff workroom is undersized. To address this issue it is recommended that the existing workroom be expanded into a portion of the childcare area. Additional staff washrooms would also be provided within the expanded space. There is also a pronounced lack of instructional welding (CTS) space in the school. A functional welding area is proposed in the present Horticultural two-story space. The second floor could become space for storage or accommodating Beauty Culture, while the main floor would be converted to a highly utilized welding CTS instructional space. The costs are necessitated as fire retardant material and an appropriate ventilation system would be required. Costs would need to be updated to current expenses to provide guidance for adequate provincial funding prior to approving and proceeding with the proposed project. A modular unit was added in 2014 and 2015 and another will be added in 2016. ROBERT RUNDLE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL – 2018/2019 The most recent facility evaluation audit completed on Robert Rundle Elementary School in 2011 determined a FCI of 18.74. Robert Rundle School is in need of a full modernization. Observation and comments from a facility review completed by Wood O’Neill O’Neill in February 1998 and the facility summary assessment costs: 1. Look at the possibility of adding a new gymnasium that can be easily accessed by ramps, or that does not require them. Convert the former gymnasium to a library and the library to an ECS/lunch/student gathering area. Upgrading of mechanical and electrical to code could be accomplished through partial modernization of the remainder of the school. 2. Convert three courtyards to multi-purpose indoor shared study spaces for the classroom clusters. In the layout, exiting needs to be maintained for the classrooms and to avoid dead end corridor situations. ECOLE LEO NICKERSON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL – 2018/2019 In the fall of 2011, a request was submitted to Alberta Education for two emergent modular classrooms for Leo Nickerson Elementary School. One modular classroom was approved and was added in the summer of 2012. In the fall of 2012, another request was submitted to Alberta Education for two more emergent modular classrooms for Leo Nickerson Elementary School. 21 Two modular classrooms were approved and added in the fall of 2013. Enrolment at Leo Nickerson School increased again and resulted in yet another request for two additional emergent modular classrooms. Two more modulars were approved and added in the winter of 2014 and two more modulars were approved and added in 2015 The most recent facility evaluation audit completed in October 2010 determined a FCI of 13.05%. Leo Nickerson School is in need of a full modernization. Observations and comments from a facility review completed by Wood O’Neill O’Neill in February 1998 and the facility audit review summary costs: 1. Resolve site drainage issues and on-going mechanical complaints in specific areas. 2. Look at expanding Science lab to enhance specific programs for the higher grades in particular and provide sufficient prep and storage area. 3. Continue to upgrade space and finishes as needed such as replacement of corridor coat hooks with individual lockers, and roof repairs. 4. Costs would need to be updated to current expenses to provide guidance for adequate provincial funding prior to approving and proceeding with the proposed project. ECOLE MURIEL MARTIN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL – 2019/2020 In December 2008, St. Albert Public Schools submitted an urgent request for two modular units for the fall of 2009 to address the crowding at Ecole Muriel Martin Elementary School. A letter approving the two emergent modular classrooms for Muriel Martin Elementary School and four evergreening replacement units complete with connecting corridors was received on June 25, 2009. The six new modular classrooms were in place for the start of the new school year in September 2010. Another request for two more emergent modular classrooms for 2012 was unsuccessful. However, a subsequent request in the fall of 2012 for two emergent modular classrooms for Ecole Muriel Martin Elementary School was successful. Two more modular classrooms were approved and added in the fall of 2013. Two more modulars were added in 2015 and one modular will be added in 2016. Although the most recent facility evaluation audit completed in August 2012 determined a FCI of 5.91%, Muriel Martin School is currently at an approximate 97% utilization rate and is in need of additional permanent space. The school currently serves 658 students (ECS counted @ 0.5). It currently has nine portable classrooms and eight modular classrooms. It is located in the north (growth) area of St. Albert and will remain heavily utilized. Construction of a permanent six to eight classroom addition on the southwest portion of the site is required. Observations and comments from a facility review completed by Thorkelsson Fry in November 2001 and the facility audit review summary assessment costs: 1. The school is at capacity and enrolment projections show that it will remain at capacity at least to 2010 and beyond. 2. The school was built and designed for 8 portables and although there are 14 portables, there are a sufficient number of washroom fixtures as required by the Alberta Building Code. The travel distance to the nearest washroom from the 1993 pod is at least 55 meters. The travel distance from the 1998 portables is about the same but with the additional requirement of going outside. In our opinion washrooms should be added to reduce the distance students must travel to these facilities. 22 3. 4. 5. 6. The 1993 portable pod is very close to the property line adjacent to residential area. The proximity of these originally created concerns with the neighboring property owners. Removing these portables would be appreciated by the neighbors. The existing situation creates a circulation problem by forcing all student traffic through the open library area at the center of the school. There is a significant shortage of storage space in the school. Costs would need to be updated to current expenses to provide guidance for adequate provincial funding prior to approving and proceeding with the proposed project. 23 Summary of Electronic Submission of the 3-Year Capital Plan 24 25 10-Year Facility Outlook 2017-2018 to 2026-2027 To maintain an effective 3-Year Capital Plan a longer facility planning outlook is required. This section outlines the district’s forecasted capital needs over the next decade. 26 10-Year Facility Outlook 2017-2018 to 2026-2027 ECS counted as 0.5 School Facilities in Alphabetical Order New High School Space St. Albert Public Schools recognizes the significant pressure on our two large highly utilized high school facilities. Given St. Albert Public Schools’ current large school enrolments, additional high school space will be required. A government endorsed value added study will determine the most prudent course of action with respect to new high school space. A new high school will have to be built or substantial additions will need to occur to Paul Kane and Bellerose Composite high schools. The district is eager for the value added study to begin. Our school district has also had preliminary discussions with the City of St. Albert and St. Albert Catholic Schools regarding the creation of a new high school site in St. Albert with potential municipal and school board partnerships. It desperately seeks a solution to the high school problem. A New 900 Student ECS-Grade 9 School A new 900 student ECS-Grade 9 school is needed within five years. The new neighborhood of Riverside will add an additional 10,000 residents. The district has no existing internal capacity to handle this growth. A New Grades 7-12 Partnership School with St. Albert Sports City – No Advancement as of Yet Our district has a partnership with a developer, St. Albert Sports City, who is planning to create an exciting, world-class multi-faceted sports complex. The grades 7-12 school, with a sports focus, would serve both local and international students. Given the developers timeline, it would fit in the district’s medium term plans. Currently this development has not moved forward. 27 Bellerose Composite High School 49 Giroux Road, St. Albert, AB Enrolment: 1178 FTE The most recent facility evaluation audit completed on Bellerose Composite High School in 2011 determined a FCI of 16.07%. The addition of two portables and a corridor was approved and completed in 2000. An eight classroom addition was approved and constructed in 2001. In order to address the over-utilization of this school, another portable was relocated from Elmer S. Gish School in the summer of 2004. The delivery and set up of a new modular classroom, the reorientation of two existing portables, and construction of a connecting corridor was approved and completed in the spring of 2007. A design report was completed by Workun Garrick Architects to further address facility needs for instructional requirements. IMR funds were used to refurbish the Foods lab in 2012 and to renovate the Art room in 2013. To deal with enrolment pressures, a modular classroom was also approved and added in the fall of 2014. This facility is identified in the 3-Year Capital Plan as a modernization priority with substantial multimillion-dollar roofing issues requiring provincial funding. To minimize damage to the building, a partial re-roof was completed in the summer of 2014 using IMR funding. However, a more permanent solution is required. A modular was added in December 2014 and another was installed in the spring of 2015. One modular has been approved for 2016. Ecole Leo Nickerson Elementary School 10 Sycamore Avenue, St. Albert, AB Enrolment: 684 FTE The most recent facility evaluation audit completed on Leo Nickerson Elementary School in October 2010 determined a FCI of 13.05%. As a result of the class size initiative and the resulting accommodation issues, the district met with Alberta Education and Alberta Infrastructure in January 2005. Subsequently an emergent request was submitted to Alberta Infrastructure on February 10, 2005. A letter approving the relocation of an existing district portable and two new modular classrooms was received on June 20, 2005. A portable was relocated from Ecole Muriel Martin Elementary School to Ecole Leo Nickerson Elementary School in August 2005. Two new modular classrooms were delivered in June 2006 and construction of the connecting link was completed in time for the start-up of the new school year in September. To deal with enrolment pressures, a request was submitted to Alberta Education in the fall of 2011 for two emergent modular classrooms for Leo Nickerson Elementary School. One modular classroom was approved and was added in the summer of 2012. A similar request for two emergent modular classrooms for Leo Nickerson Elementary School was submitted in the fall of 2012. Two 28 more modular classrooms were approved and added in the fall of 2013. Enrolment at Leo Nickerson School increased again and resulted in yet another request for two additional emergent modular classrooms. Two more modular classrooms were approved and added in the fall/winter of 2014. Two more modulars were added in 2015. The program configuration at the school will continue to be monitored as the district reviews student and program accommodation. The 1967 section of the school will require re-roofing within a few years. The school is identified in the 3-Year Capital Plan. Ecole Muriel Martin Elementary School 110 Deer Ridge Drive, St. Albert, AB Enrolment: 658 FTE The most recent facility evaluation audit completed on Ecole Muriel Martin Elementary School in August 2012 determined a FCI of 5.91%. Due to a maturing neighborhood, enrolment at Muriel Martin had leveled over the past few years to approximated capacity. However, recently as the Northwest section grew, resurgence has occurred and space is urgently needed. In addition, the school has an abundance of portables and consideration must be given to replacing them with an addition of permanent space. In December 2008, St. Albert Public Schools submitted an urgent request for two modular units for the fall of 2009 to address the crowding at Ecole Muriel Martin Elementary School. A letter approving the two emergent modular classrooms for Muriel Martin Elementary School and four evergreening replacement units complete with connecting corridors was received on June 25, 2009. The six new modular classrooms were in place for the start of the new school year in September 2010. To deal with enrolment pressures, a request was submitted to Alberta Education in the fall of 2011 for two emergent modular classrooms for Muriel Martin Elementary School; however, none were provided. A similar request for two emergent modular classrooms for Muriel Martin Elementary School was submitted in the fall of 2012. Two more modular classrooms were approved and added in the fall of 2013. Two more modulars were added in 2015 and one is to be added in 2016. The school is identified in the 3-Year Capital Plan. Ecole Paul Kane High School 12 Cunningham Road, St. Albert, AB Enrolment: 990 FTE The most recent facility evaluation audit completed on Paul Kane High School in October 2010 determined a FCI of 21.01%. Due to the building’s age and high population, a full modernization is required as soon as possible. It is identified in the 3-Year Capital Plan. A partial CTS area modernization was approved under the Infrastructure Maintenance and Renewal (IMR) block funding program. Construction was completed in 2008. A further art room refurbishment was completed in 2009. Two food labs were renovated recently; the first in 2010 and the second in 2011. In recent years’ conversations have been held with the local soccer association, an arts group and Dynamyx Gymnastics Club regarding potential partnerships. None have materialized. 29 It is now time to look at an expansion followed immediately by a modernization. Ecole Sir George Simpson Junior High School 50 Grosvenor Boulevard, St. Albert, AB Enrolment: 577 FTE The most recent facility evaluation audit completed on Ecole Sir George Simpson Junior High School in September 2009 determined a FCI of 3.83%. Sir George Simpson underwent Phase I of a full school modernization in 1993. Phase II was completed in the 2002-2003 school year. Regular crowding problems are experienced at Ecole Sir George Simpson Junior High School. With the strong elementary French Immersion numbers migrating through to junior high, the crowding will continue. Elmer S. Gish School 75 Akins Drive, St. Albert, AB Enrolment: 762 FTE The most recent facility evaluation audit completed on Elmer S. Gish School in 2011 determined a FCI of 21.07%. Although outside the window of the 3-year capital plan this crowded school would benefit from a full modernization. An interior modernization of the portables area was completed under the Infrastructure Maintenance Program (IMP) in 2000. In June 2009, the district applied for and subsequently received approval for a modular classroom from Alberta Children and Youth Services through their Child Care Modular Initiative Grant. This modular classroom was placed at Elmer S. Gish School in late 2010. It is used before and after school for a day-care program, and during the school day, it is utilized as additional classroom space to accommodate program growth in this triple track school. Recently, the Home Economics lab (in 2010) and Science lab (in 2011) were renovated utilizing Infrastructure Maintenance and Renewal (IMR) block funding. To deal with enrolment pressures, a request was submitted to Alberta Education in the fall of 2011 for two emergent modular classrooms for Elmer S. Gish School; however, none were provided. Two used portables were obtained from other school districts and added in the summer of 2012. A similar request for more emergent modular classrooms for Elmer S. Gish School was submitted in the fall of 2012. A used portable was obtained from another school district and added in the summer of 2013. Two new modular classrooms were approved and added in the fall of 2013. Enrolment at Elmer S. Gish School increased again and resulted in a request in the fall of 2013 for more emergent modular classrooms. Three new modular classrooms were approved and added in the fall/winter of 2014. Two modular units were added in 2015. One was a replacement unit. 30 Keenooshayo Elementary School 40 Woodlands Road, St. Albert, AB Enrolment: 340 FTE The most recent facility evaluation audit completed on Keenooshayo Elementary School in August 2012 determined a FCI of 12.01%. Normal maintenance and repairs will continue including utilizing IMR block funding as required. Lorne Akins Junior High School 4 Fairview Blvd, St. Albert, AB Enrolment: 448 FTE The most recent facility evaluation audit completed on Lorne Akins Junior High School in October 2008 determined a FCI of 3.53%. The school was in need of a full modernization. A full modernization was approved and construction began in May 2005 and was completed in April 2006. Due to the tenders being over budget the scope of the project needed to be reduced. The Industrial Arts lab was taken out of the original modernization project. The Industrial Arts lab was upgraded in 2008 utilizing IMR block funding. One modular will be added in 2016 Portables/Modulars The district has 100 portables/modulars that are located at various schools. The portables range in age from 21 to approximately 40 years old. The district strongly suggests that the provincial government needs to immediately implement a supported schedule of regular replacement to address the deteriorating quality of these important classroom spaces. More details regarding the district’s portables are provided in the next section of this document titled “New Modulars and Old Portables”. In November 2015 the district identified an immediate need of twelve emergent and four replacement modular classrooms. The district was awarded two for the 2016/2017 school year. Robert Rundle Elementary School 50 A Grosvenor Boulevard, St. Albert, AB Enrolment: 237.5 FTE The most recent facility evaluation audit completed on Robert Rundle Elementary School in April 2011 determined a FCI of 18.74%. 31 Robert Rundle is in desperate need of a new enhanced gymnasium. This was especially evident with the implementation of the Daily Physical Activity Initiative. This school is identified in the 3-Year Capital Plan as in need of a modernization. Robert Rundle, due to its immediate proximity to Sir George Simpson Junior High is currently being considered to house some junior high students in the near future. Ronald Harvey Elementary School 15 Langley Avenue, St. Albert, AB Enrolment: 348 FTE The most recent facility evaluation audit completed on Ronald Harvey Elementary School in October 2008 determined a FCI of 9.24%. Ronald Harvey benefited from a partial modernization and a “face lift”. A portion of the block modernization funding was utilized for this in 2001-2002. The utilization of the school has been rising and is expected to increase significantly with the development of the North Ridge and large Riverside subdivisions. Modulars are required in the very near future to replace old portables and to accommodate new residential growth. Sir Alexander Mackenzie Elementary School 61 Sir Winston Churchill Avenue, St. Albert, AB Enrolment: 605 FTE The most recent facility evaluation audit completed on Sir Alexander Mackenzie Elementary School in August 2012 determined a FCI of 13.73%. The ongoing high utilization of this school continues as it receives many students from the northeast quadrant of St. Albert. Enrolment at Sir Alexander Mackenzie School increased considerably in 2012/2013 and resulted in a request in the fall of 2012 for one emergent modular classroom for this school. A modular classroom was approved and was added in the fall of 2013. The gym floor was upgraded in 2012 utilizing IMR block funding. Wild Rose Elementary School 58 Grenfell Avenue, St. Albert, AB Enrolment: 211.5 FTE The most recent facility evaluation audit completed on Wild Rose Elementary School in 2011 determined a FCI of 25.07%. Normal maintenance and repairs will continue including utilizing IMR block funding as required. More modulars will be required to replace old portables and to serve residential growth. 32 William D. Cuts Junior High School 149 Larose Drive, St. Albert, AB Enrolment: 311 FTE The most recent facility evaluation audit completed on William D. Cuts Junior High School in September 2009 determined a FCI of 24.42%. Prior capital submissions include a modernization and a CTS addition for this school that is urgently needed. In January 2014 the government announced a major modernization and CTS addition for William D. Cuts School. The district is grateful and excited to work on this project. As the modernization at the school is completed and the northwest section of St. Albert continues to grow, W. D. Cuts School will be critical to serving the student population in this area of St. Albert. Until the K-9 900 student Joseph M. Demko student school opens in the new 5,000 person developing neighborhood of Jensen Lakes, W.D. Cuts School will remain our only junior high school north of the river. 33 New Modulars and Old Portables 34 New Modulars and Old Portables Although portables are not specific to an individual school, but rather are located at numerous schools, it is incumbent on the district to comment on them specifically. The district has 60 portable classrooms and 40 modular classrooms. As indicated in the following charts, the portables range in age from 22 to approximately 40 years old. Thirty-eight of the district’s sixty portables are over 30 years old. The district strongly recommends that Alberta Education implement a plan to replace these aged portables with new modular classrooms at a rate of five per year. This will address the deteriorating quality of these important classroom spaces and avoid an emergence of health and safety issues as the portables meet and exceed their expected useful lives. Maintaining them with limited Infrastructure Maintenance and Renewal (IMR) dollars does not make sense. In December 2008, St. Albert Public Schools submitted an urgent request for two modular units for the fall of 2009 to address the crowding at Ecole Muriel Martin Elementary School. A letter approving the two emergent modular classrooms for Muriel Martin Elementary School and four evergreening replacement units complete with connecting corridors was received on June 25, 2009. The six new modular classrooms were in place for the start of the new school year in September 2010. In June 2009, the district also applied for and subsequently received approval for a modular classroom from Alberta Children and Youth Services through their Child Care Modular Initiative Grant. This modular classroom was placed at Elmer S. Gish School in late 2010. It is used before and after school for a day-care program, and during the school day, it is utilized as additional classroom space to accommodate program growth in this triple track school. To deal with enrolment pressures, a request was submitted to Alberta Education in the fall of 2011 for six emergent modular classrooms. The district was awarded one emergent modular classroom which was installed at Leo Nickerson School in the summer of 2012. The district also obtained two used portables from other school jurisdictions and installed them at Elmer S. Gish School in the summer of 2012. In 2012-2013, enrolment increased again and resulted in a request in the fall of 2012 for seven more emergent modular classrooms for various schools within the district. The province approved the seven emergent modular classrooms under their new cost sharing approach whereby school jurisdictions pay 50% of the delivery and setup costs of the new modulars. The seven new units were installed during the fall of 2013 (two at Ecole Leo Nickerson School, two at Elmer S. Gish School, two at Ecole Muriel Martin School, and one at Sir Alexander Mackenzie School). While the district greatly appreciated being awarded the units, the cost sharing approach is financially punitive to growing urban/metro school jurisdictions. 35 In 2013-2014, enrolment surged again and resulted in a request in the fall of 2013 for nine more emergent modular classrooms for various schools within the district. As in prior years, St. Albert Public Schools also requested five modular classrooms per year to replace our aging fleet. On January 24, 2014, six new modulars were approved for the district under the government’s revised cost sharing approach whereby school jurisdictions contribute a flat rate of $50,000 per unit toward delivery and set up costs. The six new modular classrooms were installed during the fall/winter of 2014 (three at Elmer S. Gish School, two at Leo Nickerson Elementary School and one at Bellerose Composite High School). Four emergent modulars were awarded to the district in the fall of 2014. The district installed a spring/summer of 2015 delivery to Bellerose Composite High School (1 unit), Leo Nickerson Elementary School (1 unit) and Muriel Martin Elementary School (2 units). For the 2015/2016 school year the district requested 10 emergent and 6 replacement units. It was approved for four units, 1 for Leo Nickerson Elementary and 2 scheduled for replacement to Elmer S. Gish School. The placement of 1 for Lorne Akins Junior High school was delayed due to significant school site and municipal right of way issues. For 2016/2017 the district requested 16 new modular and received two. One for Bellerose High School and one for Muriel Martin Elementary School. They will be installed for September 2016. Ecole Leo Nickerson Elementary School Year 1989 1994 2006 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Portable Classrooms 2 2 4 Modular Classrooms 2 1 2 2 2 9 Ecole Muriel Martin Elementary School Year 1989* 1990* 2010 2013 2015 Total Portable Classrooms 5 4 9 Modular Classrooms 6 2 2 10 36 Bellerose Composite High School Year 1982* 1990 2007 2014 2015 Total Portable Classrooms 2 1 3 Modular Classrooms 1 1 1 3 * Aged portables moved on to the site, hence the construction date of the portables predates that of the school. Elmer S. Gish School Year 1976 (installed in 2012) 1979 1980 1990 2002 (installed in 2012) 2011 2001 (installed in 2013) 2013 2014 2015 Total Portable Classrooms 1 8 1 1 1 Modular Classrooms 1 1 13 2 3 2 8 Keenooshayo Elementary School Year 1982 1994 Total Portable Classrooms 4 4 8 Modular Classrooms Portable Classrooms Modular Classrooms 1 1 Lorne Akins Junior High School Year 2016 Total Ronald Harvey Elementary School Year Portable Classrooms Modular Classrooms 37 1975 Total 8 8 Sir Alexander Mackenzie Elementary School Year 1989 2013 Total Portable Classrooms 1 1 Modular Classrooms 1 1 Wild Rose Elementary School Year 1977 Total Portable Classrooms 6 6 Modular Classrooms William D. Cuts Junior High School Year 1978 2016 Total Portable Classrooms 8 Modular Classrooms 8 8 as part of modernization 8 Portable Classrooms 60 Modular Classrooms 40 Grand Total Year Total 38 Appendices Appendix 1 – Municipal Planning Appendix 2 – Utilization & Enrolment Appendix 3 – Schools Projected Enrolment (Internal Projections) Appendix 4 – Provincial Forecasting Model & School Needs Assessment Review 39 Appendix 1 Municipal Planning 40 Municipal Planning Municipal planning information used in projecting enrolments was derived from the City of St. Albert’s 2014 Census publication. The following are excerpts from the Summary of Key Statistics taken from the 2014 census document which provide a context for the district’s enrolment projections. St. Albert’s population increased by 3.71% over the past two years, increasing from 60,994 in 2012 to 63,255 as of April 7, 2014 (average annual growth of 1.85%). 22.44% of the population is between the ages of 50-64, with 20.52% of the population between the ages of 35-49 and 20% between the ages of 5-19. The most populous age category was mature adults (aged 50-64) with 13,474 people. St. Albert’s most populated neighborhoods continue to be Grandin at 11.7%, Lacombe Park at 11.6% and Deer Ridge at 9.9%. Since 2012, the North Ridge neighborhood experienced the largest increase in population of 1,029 residents, followed closely by Erin Ridge North with an increase of 498 people. The majority of households (73.3%) are single-family dwellings, with an average household size of 2.96 persons per single family home. The largest number of residents (1,029) with the same birth year are 51-year olds, followed by 50-year olds (1,019). The average age of St. Albert’s population is 39.6. Residential Development As mentioned earlier in this document, significant growth continues to occur in northern St. Albert, both on the east and west sides. It is creating enrolment pressure throughout the district. However, unlike some urban centers, enrolments in St. Albert have remained strong throughout the City. The completion of the northern portion of the Anthony Henday ring road by St. Albert and the quick access to the southern neighborhoods of St. Albert ensure they remain vibrant, rejuvenated student producing communities. New developing neighborhoods include Erin Ridge North in the northeast, estimated at 3,800 people and 770 students. Jensen Lakes in the north estimated at 5,000 people and 1,000 students. Riverside in the west central estimated at 10,000 people and approximately 1,900 students. An excerpt from a City of St. Albert report to City Council entitled Technical Study for the Long Term Provision of New Schools follows: 41 Appendix 2 Utilization & Enrolment 42 Utilization and Enrolment Utilization The district’s most recent Area, Capacity and Utilization Report was issued on February 1, 2016 and is presented on pages 41 to 46. The report will be fine-tuned with the Department; hence it is labelled “Draft”. It depicts the district at 89% utilized. One of the fullest jurisdictions in the province! Projected Enrolment St. Albert Public Schools continues to enjoy growth. All projections indicate this trend will continue. As indicated in the previous section on Municipal Planning, historical and future developments in the City of St. Albert were considered in formulating the enrolment projections for the district. Annexation Given that annexation occurred in January 2007, as the economic slowdown hit, then boomed and now the 2016 oil collapse hit, it is difficult to quantify its exact implications. However, there is considerable pressure to develop the newly annexed area. It will significantly enhance and accelerate St. Albert Public Schools’ student enrolment growth in the upcoming years. Notwithstanding a slowdown in the resource sector St. Albert has been recognized by external parties as a great place to live and is well positioned to continue to grow. Conclusion Both the internal and external projections indicate that St. Albert Public Schools will continue to experience strong and stable student enrolment growth in the upcoming years. The predictions, in conjunction with the class size initiative, substantiate our need for the new Joseph M. Demko 900 student K-9 announced on October 8, 2014 and new high school space. Ongoing new schools will also be required as outlined in the 3-year capital plan. 43 44 45 46 47 48 Appendix 3 Schools Projected Enrolment (Internal Projections) 49 Schools Projected Enrolment Internal Projections Given the strong population growth experienced and predicted by the City of St. Albert, growth has been incorporated into the district’s internal enrolment projections where appropriate. Generally speaking, projections have been maintained using the principles of cohort survival. The spreadsheets for each school move student enrolment from one grade to the next grade in the upcoming year, i.e. 20 students in Grade 1 in 2015 will project to 20 students in Grade 2 in 2016, and so on. In the same way, enrolments are transferred from elementary to junior high schools and from junior high schools to senior high schools. However, cohort survival on its own is not an accurate projector of enrolment as there are other factors such as enrolment growth, program additions, and residential development that affect the projections. For example, within our district as the cohorts advance a grade each year typically every grade cohort gets larger. Summaries for the district have been provided on pages 49 and 50. Individual school projections are contained on pages 51 to 66. For 2016-2017 significant curtailment in growth may occur as enrolments are being severely capped at ES Gish school and monitored closely at Leo Nickerson and Muriel Martin elementary schools due to a profound lack of school and jurisdictional space. The district has also started using the powerful Baragar program accommodation software. It will assist in enrolment projections and decisions regarding the housing of students. An excerpt from a City of St. Albert report to City Council entitled Technical Study for the Long Term Provision of New Schools follows: 50 DISTRICT TOTAL BY GRADE ACTUAL ENROLMENTS GRADE 13-14 ECS 495 1 519 2 483 3 518 4 493 5 494 6 469 7 461 8 457 9 480 10 698 11 651 12 777 OUTREACH 134 ENROLMENT 7129 GROWTH% 5.0% 14-15 598 547 534 528 544 523 525 512 459 472 733 721 711 159 7566 6.1% 15-16 548 642 551 555 546 558 525 537 529 469 672 721 775 179 7807 3.2% 16-17 534 571 670 573 579 569 582 540 554 558 662 727 840 160 8119 4.0% 17-18 529 527 564 673 573 579 566 600 559 583 777 717 851 169 8267 1.8% 18-19 517 535 522 573 674 580 584 604 594 569 813 839 843 173 8420 1.9% ENROLMENT(ECS .5) GROWTH% (ECS .5) 7267 5.6% 7533 3.7% 7852 4.2% 8003 1.9% 8162 2.0% 6882 5.1% PROJECTED ENROLMENTS 19-20 20-21 21-22 543 540 558 541 568 564 560 566 595 545 584 591 597 569 610 704 624 593 606 735 652 645 678 820 624 666 700 626 656 699 836 940 978 876 901 1010 968 1019 1049 171 174 176 8842 9220 9595 5.0% 4.3% 4.1% 8571 5.0% 8950 4.4% 9316 4.1% 22-23 569 583 589 622 617 637 621 756 844 733 1063 1050 1164 177 10025 4.5% 23-24 582 596 611 617 650 645 666 728 780 881 1122 1140 1218 179 10415 3.9% 24-25 595 609 624 639 645 680 675 775 751 817 1366 1202 1316 181 10875 4.4% 25-26 608 623 638 653 668 674 712 788 799 787 1269 1460 1389 183 11251 3.5% 9741 4.6% 10124 3.9% 10578 4.5% 10947 3.5% 51 DISTRICT TOTAL FTE BY SCHOOL ACTUAL ENROLMENTS SCHOOL Bellerose Elmer S Gish Keenooshayo Leo Nickerson Lorne Akins Muriel Martin Paul Kane Robert Rundle Ronald Harvey Sir Alexander Mackenzie Sir George Simpson Wild Rose William D. Cuts Outreach Enrolment(ECS .5) 13-14 1186 670 291 604 417 558 940 212 318 577 526 180 264 142 6882 14-15 1198 806 318 633 424 601 967 232 337 582 527 190 287 167 7267 15-16 1178 762 340 684 448 658 990 238 348 605 577 212 311 183 7533 16-17 1237 779 353 774 472 692 992 252 360 593 597 236 351 167 7852 17-18 1319 799 358 729 502 682 1026 252 375 507 651 261 368 175 8003 18-19 1407 733 367 642 539 718 1088 258 392 502 678 285 375 179 8162 PROJECTED ENROLMENTS 19-20 20-21 21-22 1509 1610 1708 753 816 838 378 389 373 633 640 649 591 604 664 747 767 768 1171 1250 1329 252 242 234 405 434 444 489 502 485 745 763 841 312 335 342 410 419 462 177 180 182 8571 8950 9316 22-23 1840 891 376 638 687 769 1437 241 484 499 870 351 476 183 9741 23-24 1953 891 384 647 709 799 1527 243 514 516 898 368 491 185 10124 24-25 2176 879 389 645 699 820 1708 250 546 528 886 381 485 187 10578 25-26 2305 886 394 660 710 833 1813 257 582 534 900 394 491 189 10947 52 ELEMENTARY ACTUAL ENROLMENTS GRADE 13-14 ECS 495 1 519 2 483 3 518 4 493 5 494 6 469 7 8 9 10 11 12 OUTREACH ENROLMENT 3471 GROWTH% 7% ENROLMENT(ECS .5) GROWTH% (ECS .5) 3224 8% PROJECTED ENROLMENTS 19-20 20-21 21-22 633 658 687 657 677 703 655 703 724 656 699 750 693 701 745 803 739 747 695 854 788 14-15 598 547 534 528 544 523 525 15-16 548 642 551 555 546 558 525 16-17 534 571 670 573 579 569 582 17-18 568 568 606 706 606 612 601 18-19 614 612 613 650 754 651 657 3799 9% 3925 3% 4078 4% 4267 5% 4551 7% 4792 5% 5031 5% 3500 9% 3651 4% 3811 4% 3983 5% 4244 7% 4476 5% 4702 5% 22-23 707 727 743 766 793 787 791 23-24 730 749 770 787 809 839 832 24-25 754 773 793 814 832 855 888 25-26 776 798 819 839 860 879 904 5144 2% 5314 3% 5516 4% 5709 3% 5875 3% 4801 2% 4961 3% 5151 4% 5332 4% 5487 3% 53 JUNIOR HIGH SUMMARY ACTUAL ENROLMENTS GRADE 13-14 ECS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 461 8 457 9 480 10 11 12 OUTREACH ENROLMENT 1398 GROWTH% 0% ENROLMENT(ECS .5) GROWTH% (ECS .5) 1398 0% PROJECTED ENROLMENTS 19-20 20-21 21-22 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 512 459 472 537 529 469 540 554 551 600 559 577 630 631 593 685 659 667 726 716 694 1443 3% 1535 6% 1645 7% 1736 6% 1854 7% 2011 8% 1443 3% 1535 6% 1645 7% 1736 6% 1854 7% 2011 8% 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 889 758 754 821 925 796 826 857 969 869 863 900 928 907 908 2136 6% 2401 12% 2542 6% 2652 4% 2632 -1% 2743 4% 2136 6% 2401 12% 2542 6% 2652 4% 2632 -1% 2743 4% 54 BELLEROSE ACTUAL ENROLMENTS GRADE 13-14 ECS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 386 11 358 12 442 OUTREACH ENROLMENT 1186 GROWTH% 6% ENROLMENT(ECS .5) GROWTH% (ECS .5) 1186 6% PROJECTED ENROLMENTS 19-20 20-21 21-22 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 401 403 394 366 390 422 364 406 467 427 404 488 447 471 489 460 492 557 517 506 587 1198 1% 1178 -2% 1237 5% 1319 7% 1407 7% 1509 7% 1198 1% 1178 -2% 1237 5% 1319 7% 1407 7% 1509 7% Assumptions Grade 10 from STAPS feeder schools: 55% Grade 10 growth (includes out of district): 41% Grade 11 estimated enrolment growth: 6% Grade 11 est Northridge & Erin Ridge North growth:18 Grade 12 estimated enrolment growth: 2% Grade 12 est Northridge & Erin Ridge North growth:18 Grade 12 estimated returning students: 12% 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 538 566 604 585 588 667 617 638 698 751 672 753 698 814 793 1610 7% 1708 6% 1840 8% 1953 6% 2176 11% 2305 6% 1610 7% 1708 6% 1840 8% 1953 6% 2176 11% 2305 6% (based on 5 year average) (based on 5 year average) students students (based on 5 year average) 55 ELMER S GISH ACTUAL ENROLMENTS GRADE 13-14 ECS 84 1 73 2 96 3 58 4 67 5 78 6 73 7 63 8 60 9 60 10 11 12 OUTREACH ENROLMENT 712 GROWTH% 18% ENROLMENT(ECS .5) GROWTH% (ECS .5) 670 18% PROJECTED ENROLMENTS 19-20 20-21 21-22 86 87 88 86 88 89 89 88 90 86 91 90 92 88 93 113 94 90 101 115 96 42 93 107 71 43 95 30 72 44 14-15 116 106 78 112 65 100 90 75 64 58 15-16 86 107 95 70 92 64 96 71 68 56 16-17 80 86 107 95 70 92 64 86 71 68 17-18 85 82 88 109 97 71 94 55 88 72 18-19 84 87 84 90 111 99 51 70 29 70 864 21% 805 -7% 819 2% 841 3% 775 -8% 796 3% 859 8% 806 20% 762 -5% 779 2% 799 3% 733 -8% 753 3% 816 8% 22-23 89 90 91 92 92 95 92 88 109 97 23-24 90 91 92 93 94 94 97 84 90 111 24-25 91 92 93 94 95 96 96 89 86 92 25-26 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 88 91 88 882 3% 935 6% 936 0% 924 -1% 932 1% 838 3% 891 6% 891 0% 879 -1% 886 1% Assumptions ECS estimated enrolment: Previous 2 year average ECS estimated enrolment growth: 2% (not incorporated into the 2016-17 estimate) Grades 1 - 6 estimated enrolment growth: 2% (not incorporated into the 2016-17 estimate) Grades 7 - 9 estimated enrolment growth: 2% (not incorporated into the 2016-17 estimate) Grade 7 estimated decrease in enrolment: -10 students LOGOS moves to Joseph M. Demko in 2018-2019 56 KEENOOSHAYO ACTUAL ENROLMENTS GRADE 13-14 ECS 45 1 46 2 41 3 49 4 45 5 39 6 48 7 8 9 10 11 12 OUTREACH ENROLMENT 313 GROWTH% 3% ENROLMENT(ECS .5) GROWTH% (ECS .5) 291 2% PROJECTED ENROLMENTS 19-20 20-21 21-22 53 52 53 54 55 54 54 56 57 53 56 58 58 55 58 78 60 57 54 81 62 14-15 58 46 50 47 57 49 40 15-16 50 66 46 49 51 54 49 16-17 47 52 69 48 51 53 56 17-18 50 49 54 72 50 53 55 18-19 52 52 51 56 75 52 55 347 11% 365 5% 376 3% 383 2% 393 3% 404 3% 415 3% 318 9% 340 7% 353 4% 358 2% 367 3% 378 3% 389 3% 22-23 54 55 56 59 60 60 59 23-24 55 56 57 58 61 62 62 24-25 56 57 58 59 60 63 64 25-26 56 58 59 60 61 62 66 399 -4% 403 1% 411 2% 417 1% 422 1% 373 -4% 376 1% 384 2% 389 1% 394 1% Assumptions ECS estimated enrolment: Previous 5 year average ECS estimated enrolment growth: 4% Grades 1 - 6 estimated enrolment growth: 4% 57 LEO NICKERSON ACTUAL ENROLMENTS GRADE 13-14 ECS 125 1 115 2 105 3 96 4 86 5 77 6 62 7 8 9 10 11 12 OUTREACH ENROLMENT 666 GROWTH% 14% ENROLMENT(ECS .5) GROWTH% (ECS .5) 604 15% PROJECTED ENROLMENTS 19-20 20-21 21-22 90 83 87 79 95 87 96 83 100 91 101 87 112 96 106 100 118 101 110 105 124 14-15 120 113 111 101 99 69 80 15-16 126 117 118 112 103 102 69 16-17 123 132 123 124 118 108 107 17-18 105 112 117 117 118 113 99 18-19 75 91 87 107 95 105 119 693 4% 747 8% 835 12% 781 -6% 679 -13% 678 0% 681 0% 633 5% 684 8% 774 13% 729 -6% 642 -12% 633 -1% 640 1% 22-23 85 91 91 105 91 111 106 23-24 86 89 96 96 110 96 117 24-25 86 90 93 101 101 116 101 25-26 86 90 95 98 106 106 122 692 2% 680 -2% 690 1% 688 0% 703 2% 649 1% 638 -2% 647 1% 645 0% 660 2% Assumptions ECS estimated enrolment: Previous 2 year average ECS estimated enrolment growth: 0% Grades 1 - 6 estimated enrolment growth: 5% LOGOS moves to Joseph M. Demko in 2018-2019 A large portion of the French Immersion boundary in Northeast St. Albert moves to Lois E. Hole in 2017-2018 58 LORNE AKINS ACTUAL ENROLMENTS GRADE 13-14 ECS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 137 8 131 9 149 10 11 12 OUTREACH ENROLMENT 417 GROWTH% -1% ENROLMENT(ECS .5) GROWTH% (ECS .5) 417 -1% PROJECTED ENROLMENTS 19-20 20-21 21-22 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 154 134 136 144 161 143 153 151 168 184 160 158 180 192 167 203 188 200 197 211 196 424 2% 448 6% 472 5% 502 6% 539 7% 591 10% 424 2% 448 6% 472 5% 502 6% 539 7% 591 10% 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 240 205 219 225 249 213 217 234 258 231 225 243 236 240 234 604 2% 664 10% 687 3% 709 3% 699 -1% 710 2% 604 2% 664 10% 687 3% 709 3% 699 -1% 710 2% Assumptions Grade 7 from STAPS feeder schools: 34% (based on 5 year average, excluding E S Gish) Grade 7 estimated enrolment growth: 2% Grade 8 estimated enrolment growth: 2% Grade 9 estimated enrolment growth: 2% Grades 7 - 9 estimated North East growth:4 students per grade 59 MURIEL MARTIN ACTUAL ENROLMENTS GRADE 13-14 ECS 73 1 89 2 70 3 95 4 98 5 86 6 83 7 8 9 10 11 12 OUTREACH ENROLMENT 594 GROWTH% 4% ENROLMENT(ECS .5) GROWTH% (ECS .5) 558 5% PROJECTED ENROLMENTS 19-20 20-21 21-22 105 104 107 109 110 109 106 114 116 101 111 120 128 106 117 133 134 111 117 140 141 14-15 99 94 93 76 100 97 91 15-16 108 113 100 99 90 104 98 16-17 93 113 119 105 104 95 109 17-18 96 91 116 121 106 104 96 18-19 104 101 96 122 127 111 109 650 9% 712 10% 738 4% 730 -1% 770 5% 799 4% 819 3% 601 8% 658 10% 692 5% 682 -1% 718 5% 747 4% 767 3% 22-23 110 112 114 122 126 123 117 23-24 112 116 118 120 128 132 129 24-25 114 118 122 124 126 134 139 25-26 116 120 124 128 130 132 141 821 0% 824 0% 855 4% 877 3% 891 2% 768 0% 769 0% 799 4% 820 3% 833 2% Assumptions ECS estimated enrolment: Previous 4 year average ECS estimated enrolment growth: 5% To encompass Northridge French Immersion growth Grades 1 - 6 estimated enrolment growth: 5% To encompass Northridge French Immersion growth 60 OUTREACH ACTUAL ENROLMENTS GRADE 13-14 ECS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 8 10 11 12 OUTREACH 134 ENROLMENT 142 GROWTH% -10% ENROLMENT(ECS .5) GROWTH% (ECS .5) 142 -10% PROJECTED ENROLMENTS 19-20 20-21 21-22 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 8 4 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 159 167 18% 179 183 10% 160 167 -9% 169 175 5% 173 179 2% 171 177 -1% 174 180 2% 176 182 1% 177 183 1% 179 185 1% 181 187 1% 183 189 1% 167 18% 183 10% 167 -9% 175 5% 179 2% 177 -1% 180 2% 182 1% 183 1% 185 1% 187 1% 189 1% Assumptions Grade 9 estimated enrolment: Previous 3 year average Grade 9 estimated enrolment growth: 2% Outreach estimated enrolment: Previous 3 year average Outreach estimated enrolment growth: 2% Enrolments do not include adult students. 61 PAUL KANE ACTUAL ENROLMENTS GRADE 13-14 ECS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 312 11 293 12 335 OUTREACH ENROLMENT 940 GROWTH% 5% ENROLMENT(ECS .5) GROWTH% (ECS .5) 940 5% PROJECTED ENROLMENTS 19-20 20-21 21-22 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 332 318 317 306 331 353 298 321 373 350 313 363 366 368 354 376 384 411 423 395 432 967 3% 990 2% 992 0% 1026 3% 1088 6% 1171 8% 967 3% 990 2% 992 0% 1026 3% 1088 6% 1171 8% 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 440 444 445 478 462 497 505 502 520 615 530 563 571 646 596 1250 7% 1329 6% 1437 8% 1527 6% 1708 12% 1813 6% 1250 7% 1329 6% 1437 8% 1527 6% 1708 12% 1813 6% Assumptions Grade 10 from STAPS feeder schools:45% (based on 5 year average) Grade 10 growth (includes out of district): 41% (based on 5 year average) Grade 11 estimated enrolment growth: 5% Grade 12 estimated enrolment growth: 5% Grade 12 estimated returning students: 7% (based on 5 year average) 62 ROBERT RUNDLE ACTUAL ENROLMENTS GRADE 13-14 ECS 37 1 37 2 27 3 41 4 25 5 37 6 26 7 8 9 10 11 12 OUTREACH ENROLMENT 230 GROWTH% -5% ENROLMENT(ECS .5) GROWTH% (ECS .5) 212 -5% PROJECTED ENROLMENTS 19-20 20-21 21-22 34 34 35 34 35 35 34 35 36 36 35 36 33 37 36 47 34 38 51 49 35 14-15 30 43 36 35 37 28 38 15-16 29 39 43 41 34 39 27 16-17 33 30 41 45 43 35 41 17-18 32 34 31 43 47 45 36 18-19 33 33 35 32 45 49 47 247 7% 252 2% 268 6% 268 0% 274 2% 269 -2% 259 -4% 232 10% 238 2% 252 6% 252 0% 258 2% 252 -2% 242 -4% 22-23 36 36 36 37 37 37 40 23-24 36 37 37 37 38 38 38 24-25 37 37 38 38 38 40 40 25-26 38 38 38 40 40 40 42 251 -3% 259 3% 261 1% 268 3% 276 3% 234 -4% 241 3% 243 1% 250 3% 257 3% Assumptions ECS estimated enrolment: Previous 3 year average ECS estimated enrolment growth: 4% Grades 1 - 6 estimated enrolment growth: 4% 63 RONALD HARVEY ACTUAL ENROLMENTS GRADE 13-14 ECS 43 1 50 2 37 3 53 4 51 5 55 6 50 7 8 9 10 11 12 OUTREACH ENROLMENT 339 GROWTH% 9% ENROLMENT(ECS .5) GROWTH% (ECS .5) 318 11% PROJECTED ENROLMENTS 19-20 20-21 21-22 60 64 68 59 65 69 63 64 70 64 67 68 52 68 71 77 56 72 60 82 60 14-15 49 42 50 48 55 57 60 15-16 38 59 46 58 53 57 56 16-17 50 42 64 49 62 57 61 17-18 53 55 46 68 52 66 61 18-19 54 58 60 49 72 56 70 361 6% 367 2% 385 5% 401 4% 419 4% 435 4% 466 7% 337 6% 348 3% 360 3% 375 4% 392 5% 405 3% 434 7% 22-23 73 73 74 75 72 76 77 23-24 78 79 79 79 80 77 81 24-25 83 84 85 84 84 85 82 25-26 89 89 90 90 89 89 90 478 3% 520 9% 553 6% 587 6% 626 7% 444 2% 484 9% 514 6% 546 6% 582 7% Assumptions ECS estimated enrolment: Previous 3 year average ECS estimated enrolment growth: 11% Grades 1 - 6 estimated enrolment growth: 5% ECS to Grade 2 estimated Northridge growth: 2 students per grade Grades 3 - 6 estimated Northridge growth: 1 student per grade Northridge subdivision is estimated to generate approximately 100 elementary students when mature. Ronald Harvey is the designated school for grades ECS to 6 and is expected to increase by 10 students per year (100/10). These ten students have been distributed as noted above. 64 SIR ALEXANDER MACKENZIE ACTUAL ENROLMENTS GRADE 13-14 ECS 63 1 91 2 80 3 95 4 92 5 90 6 97 7 8 9 10 11 12 OUTREACH ENROLMENT 608 GROWTH% 0% ENROLMENT(ECS .5) GROWTH% (ECS .5) 577 2% PROJECTED ENROLMENTS 19-20 20-21 21-22 74 74 75 75 75 75 72 77 77 69 73 79 69 70 74 98 70 71 69 100 71 14-15 85 77 89 82 102 93 96 15-16 74 100 74 98 91 108 97 16-17 75 75 102 75 100 93 110 17-18 70 67 67 94 67 92 85 18-19 74 71 68 68 96 68 94 624 3% 642 3% 630 -2% 542 -14% 539 -1% 526 -2% 539 2% 582 1% 605 4% 593 -2% 507 -14% 502 -1% 489 -3% 502 3% 22-23 76 77 77 79 81 75 72 23-24 77 78 79 79 81 83 77 24-25 78 79 80 81 81 83 85 25-26 79 80 81 82 83 83 85 522 -3% 537 3% 554 3% 567 2% 573 1% 485 -3% 499 3% 516 3% 528 2% 534 1% Assumptions ECS estimated enrolment: Previous 3 year average ECS estimated enrolment growth: 2% Grades 1 - 6 estimated enrolment growth: 2% Parents in Erin Ridge North given the choice to attend Lois E. Hole for 2017-2018 for students already enrolled at SAM 65 SIR GEORGE SIMPSON ACTUAL ENROLMENTS GRADE 13-14 ECS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 177 8 173 9 176 10 11 12 OUTREACH ENROLMENT 526 GROWTH% -5% ENROLMENT(ECS .5) GROWTH% (ECS .5) 526 -5% PROJECTED ENROLMENTS 19-20 20-21 21-22 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 178 176 173 206 186 185 197 210 190 236 201 214 232 241 205 262 237 246 254 267 242 310 259 272 290 316 264 280 296 322 298 286 302 304 304 292 527 0% 577 9% 597 3% 651 9% 678 4% 745 10% 763 2% 841 10% 870 3% 898 3% 886 -1% 900 2% 527 0% 577 9% 597 3% 651 9% 678 4% 745 10% 763 2% 841 10% 870 3% 898 3% 886 -1% 900 2% Assumptions Grade 7 from STAPS feeder schools: 44% (based on 5 year average, excluding E S Gish) Grade 7 estimated enrolment growth: 2% Grade 8 estimated enrolment growth: 2% Grade 9 estimated enrolment growth: 2% Grade 7 estimated Late French Immersion growth: 4 students Grade 7 LOGOS moved to E S Gish in 2007 66 WILD ROSE ACTUAL ENROLMENTS GRADE 13-14 ECS 25 1 18 2 27 3 31 4 29 5 32 6 30 7 8 9 10 11 12 OUTREACH ENROLMENT 192 GROWTH% 8% ENROLMENT(ECS .5) GROWTH% (ECS .5) 180 5% PROJECTED ENROLMENTS 19-20 20-21 21-22 41 42 45 45 45 46 46 49 49 45 50 53 53 49 55 58 58 53 44 63 63 14-15 41 26 27 27 29 30 30 15-16 37 41 29 28 32 30 33 16-17 33 41 45 32 31 36 34 17-18 38 37 45 49 36 35 40 18-19 41 42 41 49 53 40 39 210 9% 230 10% 252 10% 280 11% 305 9% 332 9% 356 7% 190 6% 212 12% 236 11% 261 11% 285 9% 312 9% 335 8% 22-23 46 49 50 53 58 60 58 23-24 48 50 53 55 58 63 65 24-25 50 52 55 58 60 63 68 25-26 52 55 57 60 63 65 68 364 2% 374 3% 392 5% 406 4% 420 3% 342 2% 351 3% 368 5% 381 4% 394 3% Assumptions ECS estimated enrolment: Previous 4 year average ECS estimated enrolment growth: 5% Grades 1 - 6 estimated enrolment growth: 5% Grades ECS - 6 estimated southwest growth: 2 students per grade Southwest growth is anticipated to generate school aged students. Growth in the Riverside area to the extent Ronald Harvey cannot accommodate it may need to be directed to Wild Rose by 2016. 67 WILLIAM D. CUTS ACTUAL ENROLMENTS GRADE 13-14 ECS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 84 8 93 9 87 10 11 12 OUTREACH ENROLMENT 264 GROWTH% 6% ENROLMENT(ECS .5) GROWTH% (ECS .5) 264 6% PROJECTED ENROLMENTS 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 105 85 97 116 114 81 104 122 125 125 110 133 122 132 121 138 128 144 134 145 140 163 141 158 153 170 153 147 160 184 157 154 174 160 164 167 287 9% 311 8% 351 13% 368 5% 375 2% 410 9% 419 2% 462 10% 476 3% 491 3% 485 -1% 491 1% 287 9% 311 8% 351 13% 368 5% 375 2% 410 9% 419 2% 462 10% 476 3% 491 3% 485 -1% 491 1% Assumptions Grade 7 from STAPS feeder schools: 22% (based on 5 year average, excluding E S Gish) Grade 7 estimated enrolment growth: 6% Grade 8 estimated enrolment growth: 6% Grade 9 estimated enrolment growth: 6% Grades 7 - 9 estimated Northridge growth:4 students per grade Northridge subdivision is estimated to generate approximately 125 junior high students when mature. W D Cuts is the designated school for grades 7 to 9 and is expected to increase by 12 students per year (125/10). These 12 students have been distributed as noted above. 68 Appendix 4 Provincial Forecasting Model & School Needs Assessment Review 69 Provincial Forecasting Model The district continues to be aware of and monitors the provincial forecasting model. The district reviews and considers the provincial data as it builds its internal projections. School Needs Assessment Review The Regular School Needs Assessment Review, a joint effort between the City of St. Albert, Greater St. Albert Catholic Schools and our school jurisdiction was last completed in 2002. The study should be updated again because our results have exceeded the consultant’s projections. Results to date strongly indicate in St. Albert the school age population will continue to experience growth. Since the other partners were not ready to renew the study in 2014 the district purchased the Baragar software as a proactive planning tool to assist with program accommodation. It is a powerful software package that will serve a fast growing district well. It assists with efficiently planning where students will be housed. Significant Growth Facts Substantiating the Need for Proper Yet Flexible Planning 2014-2015 enrolment full body count growth has increased 5.9%! And another 3.2% in 2015/2016 despite enrolment caps. (Full time equivalent (FTE) growth counting ECS @0.5 FTE is 3.7%!) ECS (Early Childhood Services) was at a record high enrolment at September 30, 2013 and grew another 20% at September 30, 2014! In 2015 it was only 7.8% less with enrolment caps. At February 2016 our ECS registration for September 2016 were 32.5% higher than last year. ECS to Grade 9 populations have increased close to 25% in the last five years! Baragar A projection using base knowledge from the powerful Barager software is attached. It reflects continued strong growth based on the existing enrolment trends without considering local knowledge of new growing neighborhoods in Erin Ridge North, Jensen Lakes and Riverside. 70 71